Canada

The tariff rules being imposed on various countries are more complicated than they seem. One example is oil imported from Alberta, Canada and this amounts to 4 million barrels per day. There is a ten percent import tax on this but there is an exception which exempts most of the oil. If the oil meets the United States, Mexico, Canada Agreement (USMCA) standards there is no tariff. This means that the oil must all come from Canada and not be mixed with oil from another country. Alberta supplies 15% of Canada’s GDP. The people in Alberta are upset with Ottawa’s threat of retaliation against the US with tariffs. These is currently a referendum being offered to the people of Manitoba, Alberta, Saskatchewan and British Columbia to form a government separate from Ottawa. There are signs across the region saying: End Federal Injustice: Western Sovereignty - A Path to Autonomy

Vaccine

During the recent Covid pandemic much information was put out by the government that was not correct and much information that was correct was called misinformation. One example of how the government manipulated information was the way the definition of vaccine was change to accommodate the efficacy of the product. On September 1, 2021 the CDC changed its definition of vaccine Before. A product that stimulates a person’s immune system to produce immunity to a specific disease, protecting the person from that disease. After. A preparation that is used to stimulate the bodies response against the disease. This change was made after it was discovered that the Covid vaccine did not give immunity and did not prevent the transfer after vaccination.

Canada

The reason Europe was in such a disadvantage in negotiating with Trump was the fact that they are so dependent on the US for military protection. This has been the case since WW 2. They have enjoyed this benefit over the years by using defense money to provide social benefits, things like national healthcare. Canada is now in the same situation. The Canadians spend 1.37% of their GDP on defense because they too rely on the US for protection. This is far less than the commitment by the EU countries to up their defense spending to 5%. Just like Europe, Canada provides national healthcare for its citizens using the savings from defense spending.

Germany

From the standpoint of economics, Germany was the crown jewel of the European Union but that is changing because of several factors some of which are self-inflicted wounds. It began with the 2005 election of Angela Merkel. She led the grand coalition of the three major parties. One of her first major policies was to replace fossil fuels with wind and solar. This was done without any deep investigation and failed to recognize that Germany did not have much sun or much wind. In 2008 she began closing the first of 17 nuclear power plants and the last one closed in 2023. The second big mistake was the failure to recognize the oncoming demographic problem of having too many older people and too few younger people. Both of these potential problems were easily discernable to anyone who took the time to look but no one did. Third was the influx of cheap goods from China which led to job loses in sectors like autos and machinery. The straw the broke the back happened the year after Merkel left office when Russia invaded Ukraine and the German government decide to stop buying natural gas from Russia. This caused a steep rise in energy prices which led many German companies, particularly those in chemicals and auto, to suffer and led to lay offs and transferring production to the US. For many years the German government was able to provide significant social benefits because the US offered military protection and Germany used defense spending to prop up social programs. For many years Germans worked much less than Americans averaging 1,340 hours per year verses 1,800 for Americans. The threat to these programs, in particular social security, is now prompting the government to demand that people worked longer hours. In addition, the government will now increase its defense budget from 2% of GDP to 5%. Ten years ago, the US was on the same glide path as Germany but recognized the potential pit falls and changed course. Today the US is moving away from providing military protection for Europe and changing energy policy away from wind and solar and toward nuclear. The US is bringing jobs back home, especially from China and placing tariffs on Chinese import. The US is embarking on a plan to lead the world in AI. The US must next find ways to include recent immigrants into the work force eventually leading to citizenship.

Change

The nation and the world now have six months of the Trump revolution under its belt and the task ahead is still mostly impossible. To turn around the ship of state is like turning an aircraft carrier. The establishment that has evolved since WW 2 is not likely to accept a major change. The move away from globalization was a first step but from here on out things become more difficult. As the bureaucracy puts up the barriers to maintain the status quo, change of any form becomes more difficult and less likely. All of the main institutions want to remain the same in order to keep their power. Big business, bureaucracy (government), education, the national press and cultural things like Hollywood want to keep the system as is. Trump really has only six more months to get a balance of trade, to end the war Ukraine and to solve the problem in the Middle East. If he can accomplish this there is an outside chance of keeping control of the congress which would give him two more years and this would greatly enhance the probability of making permanent changes. The one thing that could help Trump is if the increase in wages, that currently outpaces inflation, would continue but this is up in the air at this time. The power structure in the US and in the world is against any change.

Clouding issues

Issues are often clouded by combining related points in a misleading way. A good example is including legal immigration with illegal immigration. More recently are the stories about Russian interference in the 2016 election. They interfered by placing ads on social media but they did not collude with Trump. The NY Times columnist Bret Stephens wrote that Trump did collude with the Russias but later changed. Stephens also admitted the Russian collusion narrative - "the Steele dossier and all the bogus allegations, credulously parroted in the mainstream media, that flowed from it" - that marred Trump's presidency was an "elaborate hoax" and that "there’s just no other word for it". US President Donald Trump's campaign did not conspire with Russia during the 2016 election, a summary of Special Counsel Robert Mueller's report says. This investigation lasted 22 months and cost $32 million dollars. Special counsel John Durham concluded that the FBI should never have launched a full investigation into connections between Donald Trump’s campaign and Russia during the 2016 election. This investigation lasted four years and cost $6.5 million. In spite of this the Internet is filled with stories that maintain the Trump/Russia connection is true. Right now, the public is clamoring for the Epstein case to be investigated but will the results be ignored. Are government investigation only good for the fees attorneys earn. As long as the politicians can keep the American voters at each other’s throats they are safe from any investigation and the public is more than happy to oblige.

European arms

During WW 2 the US manufactures were called upon to produce weapons for war and the response was nothing less than miraculous with the production of 300,000 air craft, 124,000 ships, 86,000 tanks and millions of other smaller trucks and vehicles. It appears the US is once again called upon to send arms to Europe. The EU has agreed to increase their defense spending to 5% of GDP and use much of that money to buy military supplies from the US. The projected purchases are $250 billion per year. This represents one forth of the US defense budget.