Division

The division among the American people is on display. While Iranians around the world, including in Iran, celebrate the passing of Khamenei, some people in the US are protesting the attack on Iran. Today in NY City both sides will be marching in the streets. While the initial efforts to end the regime seem successful, it is time to recall the way the Iraqis reacted when the US ended the Sadam government. They were ecstatic at first, proudly showing their purple thumbs as evidence of voting in a free election but they soon returned to bickering between tribes. Large numbers of soldiers in Iran have been killing civilians and they may fear retaliation if they lay down their arms. They may choose instead to just keep killing unarmed citizens. At least for the foreseeable future, the Iranian terrorist threat to the region has ended. Will this open the door for the Arab states to work with Israel to bring peace to the region. Will it mean the end of Hamas and the rebuilding of Gaza.

Policies

Trump’s critics have adjusted their position on some important issues. Instead of being opposed to what is done they are now in agreement but not with how its done. For example, they agree that the border should be secured but not how it is done. They agree that migrant criminals should be deported but not how it is being done. They agree that Iran is a threat to peace and must be neutralized but not how Trump is doing it. They agree that manufacturing jobs must be brought home but without tariffs. This is all normal politics from the opposition party but it is a different way of looking at things.

War

Iran is a country that uses proxies to carry out terror attacks. They always deny any cooperation in these attacks so the rest of the world sits by and watches. Iran was designated a State Sponsor of Terrorism by the US State Department since January 1984. For the past 40 years the US has stood by watching Americans being killed by various terror groups while occasionally responding with pin prick attacks. Presidents since Reagan have declared that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon but they have continued their pursuit for just such a weapon. As everyone is well aware, Trump is not like other presidents and has decided to take action. The status quo people will demand that the US continue with the old policy of negotiations. They will demand that the president get congressional approval before taking any action. Thus 535 members will debate what should be done which means the continuation of the existing policy. The congress will ask for specific plans as to what is the goal and how will it be attained. How many troops using what equipment from what locations, how much will it cost and estimates of damage and death to US assets.

Iran

The old adage, the straw that broke the camel’s back, is certainly appropriate for the Oct 7 invasion of Israel by Hamas. This led to the end of Hezbollah, the attack on Hamas, the 12-day war, the destruction of the Iranian nuclear facilities and now the direct attack on Iran. The Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, are now joining in the US in the war on Iran. The Abraham Accords started in Trump’s first term will now be further strengthened and hopefully lead to Saudi Arabia and Israel becoming partners in rebuilding Gaza. Step by step the Middle East is changing.

Socialism

There are certain politicians running for office under the banner of democratic socialist but this needs some clarification. Karl Marx came up with the modern-day idea of socialism by saying it starts with the people owning the means of production but it morphs into communism where certain people at the top will have central control over the economy. This is a daunting task to determine in advance how much of all products is needed and then set up programs to manufacture these. How many shoes of what size or how many bushels of wheat and so on. Contrast that with capitalism where the market determines how much of what is needed. A democratic socialist allows for free markets to produce profits and they then take those profits and redistributes them fairly to all the people. This closely resembles what the democratic party is today. They take the profits and then decide who gets what and how much. This leaves them in control. They of course believe they have the ability to carry out this plan much like a benevolent dictator. They will be compassionate and kind and there will be no super rich and no very poor.

Trump or not

As you scan across various news programs a common dilemma pops up. How can 80 million people think Trump is fine and 80 million think he is terrible. One way to explain this is to think about a man who works for a large corporation. He has work friends and he selects them based on common interest and various personality traits, just as he does with his friends away from work. When he looks at the president of the company, he doesn’t know the CEO on a personal basis and the personality of the CEO is of no importance. What he is interested in is whether the CEO can run the company in a profitable way to offer him job security. This is the case with Trump. If you judge him based on his personality you come to one conclusion but if you judge him on his performance you come to another conclusion. If what you see is a bombastic, blowhard, egotistical big mouth who exaggerates to the point of out right lies, then you are not going to vote for him. If, on the other hand, you see manufacturing jobs coming back to America, Europe having to pay for their own defense instead of relying on the US, secure borders, energy independence, wages rising faster than inflation, using the Abraham Accords to get Saudi Arabia to work with Israel to rebuild Gaza and trying to stop the war in Ukraine, you will vote for him. This doesn’t apply to you if you always vote for the party regardless of the candidate but is directed to independents who can be swayed by performance. You might say you prefer a candidate with a pleasant demeanor and great leadership skills but that is not the choice at this time.

California

California, following in the steps of Europe, has attached future growth to the green new deal. Government decisions are based on climate considerations. Passing laws, like no new gas-powered cars after 2035 which led to shutting vital oil pipelines and closing refineries and gas prices a dollar higher than the rest of the country. Home owners pay 30 cents per kWh when the other states pay 15 cents. In order to meet the environmental requirements, to build a house means $29,000 in permit fees compared to Texas $1,000. This also means 25 months to build a house vs the national average of 8 months. The result is the average cost of a home in California is over $800,000 vs the $375,000 in the rest of the country. The same story can be told for all economic development in the state. This is just what happened in Europe and their share of world GDP has declined from 27% in 1980 to 13% today. This is all based on the idea that wind and solar can replace fossil fuels. For 50 years after WW 2 California was booming having beautiful whether and scenery but since 2010 things have gone downhill. Even though the state has high income tax rates the budget has suffered. The state suffers from budget shortfalls and long-term liabilities of $500 billion to cover retirees present and future.