Saturday, March 14, 2026

Tariff free

Germany was the economic power house of Europe all during the cold war. They manufactured high quality industrial products and exported them, many to the US. Before the Ukraine war (prior to February 2022), Germany maintained a massive, decades-long trade surplus, driven by strong manufacturing exports (machinery, cars, chemicals) and reliance on cheap Russian energy imports. In 2021 the trade surplus was $200 billion. They did this by producing quality products and using tariffs. In 2021 sending a $30,000 Cadillac to Germany cost an additional $11,000 in tariffs, fees and VAT. The cost to import a $30,000 German car to the US was $750. Germany’s debt to GDP ratio was 70% and the US was 120%. Trade deficits are counted as debt. Recent negotiations have tended to even this out with import tax on a $30,000 German car at $4,500 and the tax on shipping an American car to Germany remains the same. This encourages Germany to produce more cars in the US to avoid the tariff. As of early 2025, German carmakers are looking to expand North American output to secure their market position in the face of tariff risks, which has already seen a significant portion of German automotive jobs (up to 78,000) potentially moving to the U.S.. Tariff free is best but only if they are fair. Zero tariffs for all countries would be ideal.

Thorium first

CERN estimates that 1 ton of thorium is capable of producing as much energy as 200 tons of uranium. This is because 100% of thorium is available for fission where uranium is only .7% of usable U 235 and must be enriched to get rid of the unwanted U 238. Thorium is about 3-4 times more common than uranium in the earth's crust. Thorium's ore, monazite, generally contains higher concentrations of thorium than the percentage of uranium found in its respective ore. This makes thorium a more cost efficient and less environmentally damaging fuel source. Thorium is found in the waste products (tailings) in other mining such as iron and phosphate. Thorium is concentrated in coal ash. Over 5 billion tons of coal ash have been produced in the U.S. over the last century, with roughly 110–140 million tons generated annually. Ash from the typical coal power plant each year will contain 15,000 tons of thorium which according to Google AI could power the entire world for ten years.

Press

One important question regarding the Biden years is how much should the press influence elections. Many democrats and supporters believed that any president, even one in decline, was better than a second Trump term. While this is understandable based on politics, is it acceptable that the press feels this way. Here is Google AI Based on reporting, books, and investigations in 2025, there is a strong argument that a significant portion of the media and the Biden administration participated in, or failed to adequately report on, the president's cognitive decline, often dismissing signs as "cheap fakes". CNN, MSNBC, and other outlets often dismissed concerns as "ageism" or partisan attacks, even after reports, such as that by Special Counsel Robert Hur, suggested significant memory issues. This has affected the coverage of the president after the election. A 2025 YouGov poll found only 29% of Americans have a "fair amount" or "great deal" of trust in the media to report facts accurately and fairly, while 67% express little to no trust. This began when Trump was campaigning during his first term. Donald J Trump was not popular with America's newspapers. Of the 100 top circulation print newspapers, two endorsed him. More than 200 newspapers supported Clinton, while Trump received the backing of fewer than 20. This continues today as a recent analysis by the Media Research Center has revealed that 92% of the major network media coverage of Trump during his first 100 days Mistrust in the media is a continuation of a trend that started in the 1980’s when trust in the media was 70% and today it has dropped to 28%.

Friday, March 13, 2026

Iran attack

The last four presidents starting with George Bush, have said that it is US foreign policy that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons. Bush used a diplomatic-first approach aimed at international isolation, coupled with economic pressure and the credible threat of military force. Clinton signed the Iran Nonproliferation Act of 2000, which authorized him to take punitive action against individuals or organizations known to be providing material aid to WMD programs in Iran. During his first term Trump pursued a policy designed to prevent Iran from acquiring nukes by dismantling the 2015 Iran deal and replacing it with a maximum pressure campaign of severe economic sanctions. Biden’s strategy was to prevent Iran from obtaining nukes by pursuing diplomacy to revive the 2015 plan while stating that military force was the last resort. So why now. The Syrian regime under Assad had collapsed closing down arms shipments from Iran to Hezbollah. Hamas in Gaza had been neutralized. Iran was in an economic tailspin and the people were revolting in the streets. Trump had damaged their underground nuclear site and Israel had grounded their air force. The US had surrounded Iran with a large military armada and the Israelis got word that the top Iranian leaders were meeting together and the time was right. Iran was the leading sponsor of terrorism in the world and for 40 plus years had been attacking US bases and soldiers and the stage was set for an invasion. The mass production of rockets and drones now revealed, tell the story of how Iran was planning on carrying out their long-promised destruction of Israel and the US, the Little Saten and the Great Saten. Iran was making 100 missiles and 10,000 drones per month while shouting death to America. This confrontation was inevitable and should have been done sooner but better late than never.

dot com

In 1997 Clinton and Gingrich agreed to cut spending and cut targeted taxes. The spending cuts would be in defense and non-defense discretionary spending. The result was that revenues exceeded spending for four consecutive years from 1998 to 2001. Much of this was attributed to the dot com bubble. When Clinton took office, the Nasdaq was at 450 and when he left it was 5000. Within 18 months after he left office the bubble burst and the Nasdaq dropped to 1100. Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than smart and both Clinton and Gingrich were given credit for balancing the budget for four years. In those four years the dot com companies gained $5 trillion in value and then lost most of it in less than two years.

WW 2

In the 1930’s, as Hitler was taking over Europe, the polls in the US showed 93% of the people did not want to get involved in “Europe’s War”. Even after England and France declared war on Germany the American polls show no change in the US position. Japanese Admiral Yamamoto warned, do not wake the sleeping giant, in regards to the attack on Pearle Harbor. If Japan had heeded his warning, would the US allowed Hitler to take over Germany. Even after the attack on Pearle, if FDR went before congress to ask for the declaration of war by explaining that it would take four years and it would mean the lives of over 400,000 American soldiers and it would cost $5 trillion in today’s dollars would congress have approved. How the Iran war will turn out is yet to be determined but the upside can be revolutionary. It would be wise to withhold judgement for a while.

Bombs

As the war in Iran enters its second week, people are getting beginning to doubt the wisdom of Trumps invasion. Recent polls show that 43% disapprove and 27% approve. Just prior to WW 2 polls showed that over 90% of Americans did not want to get involved. Even after Europe declared war on Germany in Sept 1939, Americans still wanted no part of the war. It was only after Pearle Harbor the Americans changed. In 1999 when the US bombed Serbia, 60% approved with no troops on the ground. 90% opposed sending troops. During the 78-day NATO bombing campaign in 1999 (Operation Allied Force), an estimated 23,000 to 28,000 explosive munitions, including roughly 3,000 cruise missiles and thousands of cluster bombs, were launched against Yugoslavia. Other reports, often from opposing perspectives, cite up to 80,000 tonnes of bombs The polls showed 93% favored sending troops to Afghanistan at the start of the war and that number declined steadily as the war dragged on until 70% wanted to withdraw.