Europe's obit

In 1941 the US stepped in to save Europe from self-destruction but today Climate change is writing Europe’s obituary. Starting about 40 years ago various climate activist groups like Greenpeace took control of the government. They believed they were saving the world by going all out to eliminate fossil fuels. It was an emotional response void of real science and pushed forward by false science. Even though the goal was carbon free they decided to close the nuclear plants which was one of the results of acting on emotion. This same lack of thinking things through, led them to believe that solar and wind could be their sole energy sources, only to later discover that Germany, the economic engine of Europe is not that sunny or windy. In 1993 they formed the European Union and turned the government over to the bureaucrats in Brussels, who saw their job was to write regulations to promote green energy. This had the effect of bringing any new innovation or industry to a grinding halt. Google AI says it this way: There is a strong consensus among business leaders and analysts that Europe is heavily burdened by regulations, which some reports suggest stifles innovation, slows competitiveness, and imposes high compliance costs. Europe, since WW 2 has depended on the US for national defense and they used their funds to build high speed transportation and social programs, often pointing out that they had national healthcare. Then came the Ukraine War and the cheap gas from Russia disappeared. At the same time the US, carrying $37 trillion in debt told Europe, they would have to increase their defense spending. To make things worse Europe is not replacing its population. In 2023 3.7 million babies were born in Europe and 4.7 million people died. The result is that Europe is deindustrializing while America is reindustrializing.

SAT

The College Board is a non-profit group that deals with the SAT and ACT entrance exams. It has been around for a hundred years and many times shown to be biased toward a certain class, mainly white and higher income. This caused many schools to do away with the SAT and revert back to GPA’s but those had suffered from grade inflation and were a poor substitute for testing. Now some schools are reviving the SAT. The College Board which is a $1.3 billion business is the only game in town. They have now moved into determining what kind of course work high schools should have and highlight Advanced Placement (AP) courses. The teachers teach to the test and many students purchase past test to review. No matter what changes they make, the more affluent and whiter the student is the better the performance. In one attempt to rectify this, the College Board started an AP class called African American Studies, which included topics like critical race theory (CRT), intersectionality and queer theory. Recent attempts to help, including Common Core and No Child Left Behind, have only caused headaches for teachers and confusion for students. The test score gap between whites and minorities continues to widen. Recent changes in the economy, based on new manufacturing jobs and AI, may move students away from college and required skills not measured by mental acuity test but more toward practical learning.

Trump right or wrong

Most people are not aware or have forgotten that Trump talked about a run for the White House going back to the late 1980’s and the was the butt of many jokes. In the White House Correspondents Dinner in 2011, Obama became famous showing off his comedic skills as he skewered and mocked Trump. He had the crowd roaring with laughter. Only a few years later the laughter continued as Trump announced his candidacy and was welcomed on programs like Morning Joe where he was roundly made fun of as he expounded on his unusual views of popular subjects. James Fallows claimed that the chance of a Trump nomination was exactly zero. Ben White said he would eat a bag of rusty nails if Trump won. Peter Fenn doubted Trump’s celebrity would translate into a primary win. Even experts in his own party considered him a joke as George Will dismissed his chances. The people who spent their lives becoming experts in the field of politics, were totally baffled by Trump and yet these people still maintain their positions as political guru’s. Every time Trump does something they immediately announce how it is the wrong thing. They seem incapable of reevaluating their original position regardless of how many times Trump makes the right move. To many readers these guru’s have lost credibility. No politician always makes the right move but sometimes they do. Trump has more right and wrong moves than most politicians because he makes more moves. He has so many irons in the fire that the press can hardly keep up.

North Korea

North Korea used negotiation time to develop a nuclear bomb. They increasing their nuclear capabilities using technology from Russia leading up to their joining the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1989. They failed to pass inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This triggered a nuclear crisis in 1994 when they would withdraw from the NPT. The negotiation continued while they were building up their nuclear program. Meetings continued and in 2006 they tested their first nuclear bomb. Iran was following the same plan hoping to build up their military while developing the bomb. Iran allegedly started the AMAD Project with the aim of developing nuclear weapons in 1989 and it ended in 2003. In 2006 they resumed their uranium enrichment. Four US presidents Bush, Obama, Biden and Trump were involved in some type of talks with Iran over a 25-year period. During these years Iran was providing assistance to groups like Hamas and Hezbollah and aiding in the attack against US soldiers. On several occasions the people of Iran took to the streets to protest against their government only to be put down by their leaders.

Rick Jackson

Another story of how great America is, has popped into the news as billionaire Rick Jackson enters the Georgia Governors race. Jackson is the founder of a large healthcare business. The self-described million-dollar Trump donor, grew up in the projects, going through the foster care system having fled abusive parents as a child. Like Trump, I’m an outsider and don’t owe anybody anything and I’m sick of career politicians. He has taken a strong conservative position on the issues including making Georgia number one in criminal deportations, keeping woke ideology out of schools, banning DEI, criminalizing reverse discrimination and cutting state income tax by half and freezing property tax. Jackson has donated to foster care programs and is deeply committed to improving outcomes for vulnerable youth. He is facing an uphill battle because Trump has already endorsed another candidate.

Pension vs 401K

A pension by definition is a guaranteed monthly retirement check for life. These were popular in the post war era but have been replace by 401K plans starting in about 1970. The number of people under pension plans have declined from 27 million in 1975 to 13 million in 2019. The only groups that maintain regular pension plans are some unions, federal, state, county workers and teachers. The private sector abandoned pensions in favor of 401K plans because they were less costly. A retiree with a pension plan has a benefit 50% higher than one with a 401K plan. In time the public sector will have to move away from pensions and toward 401K plans because there is not enough money to pay the retirees under the present public pension system. When there is not enough money to pay the promised benefits to future retirees it is called underfunded. The 1974 Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) was designed to prevent underfunding, so what happened. Go back 40 years and you are setting up a pension plan. You have to decide how many employees are going to stay with your company for the next 40 years. You must determine how much their salaries will be over the next 40 years. You must determine what life expectancy will be in 40 years. You must decide how much you must put into the pension account and how much that money will earn in the future. Because this is such a daunting task, ERISA said that the pension fund must be audited each year to make sure enough money is being added to meet future commitments. If the company decides to spend some pension contributions on another project, they would make up the difference by projecting a higher rate of return on the pension fund and therein lies the loop hole. Here is info from Google AI: Research and data from financial analysts indicate that many pension fund managers, particularly for public plans, have consistently projected ambitious or unrealistic rates of return to mask the extent of underfunding and keep employer contributions artificially low. One particularly egregious state is Illinois. They have only 49 cents in their pension account for every one dollar promised. Can they recover by adding more money? Yes, but if they added one million dollars per day extra it would take 600 years to recover. The small population state of North Dakota had to add $49 million last year to the teacher’s retirement fund to maintain benefits. When Detroit filed bankruptcy, they cut benefits to existing pensioners. Is that the future of pension plans.

US Europe

Many articles are written about the change of heart that Europe has toward the US. Europe is generally less friendly toward the U.S. now than in 2015, driven by a sharp decline in favorability following the return of Donald Trump and a preference for European autonomy. Trump himself and his VP and Secretary of State have told Europe they must make changes to survive. They must spend more on their own national defense and stop relying on the US. They should place more emphasis on fossil fuels and less on wind and solar. They should deport illegal migrants. While no country likes getting advice from another, there have been significant changes made by the US that have a monetary effect on Europe. In 2015 Europe spent 1.45% of GDP on defense and today it is 2.16% headed for 5%. In 2015 the US covered 73% of total NATO cost and today it is 67%. In 2015 Europe collected $16,500 in import taxes and fees on a $50,000 car from the US and today they collect $10,500. In the early years of the war the US sent arms to Europe for free to send to Ukraine but today they sell those same arms to Europe. Perhaps the change of heart has something to do with the change in financial arrangements.