dot com

In 1997 Clinton and Gingrich agreed to cut spending and cut targeted taxes. The spending cuts would be in defense and non-defense discretionary spending. The result was that revenues exceeded spending for four consecutive years from 1998 to 2001. Much of this was attributed to the dot com bubble. When Clinton took office, the Nasdaq was at 450 and when he left it was 5000. Within 18 months after he left office the bubble burst and the Nasdaq dropped to 1100. Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than smart and both Clinton and Gingrich were given credit for balancing the budget for four years. In those four years the dot com companies gained $5 trillion in value and then lost most of it in less than two years.

WW 2

In the 1930’s, as Hitler was taking over Europe, the polls in the US showed 93% of the people did not want to get involved in “Europe’s War”. Even after England and France declared war on Germany the American polls show no change in the US position. Japanese Admiral Yamamoto warned, do not wake the sleeping giant, in regards to the attack on Pearle Harbor. If Japan had heeded his warning, would the US allowed Hitler to take over Germany. Even after the attack on Pearle, if FDR went before congress to ask for the declaration of war by explaining that it would take four years and it would mean the lives of over 400,000 American soldiers and it would cost $5 trillion in today’s dollars would congress have approved. How the Iran war will turn out is yet to be determined but the upside can be revolutionary. It would be wise to withhold judgement for a while.

Bombs

As the war in Iran enters its second week, people are getting beginning to doubt the wisdom of Trumps invasion. Recent polls show that 43% disapprove and 27% approve. Just prior to WW 2 polls showed that over 90% of Americans did not want to get involved. Even after Europe declared war on Germany in Sept 1939, Americans still wanted no part of the war. It was only after Pearle Harbor the Americans changed. In 1999 when the US bombed Serbia, 60% approved with no troops on the ground. 90% opposed sending troops. During the 78-day NATO bombing campaign in 1999 (Operation Allied Force), an estimated 23,000 to 28,000 explosive munitions, including roughly 3,000 cruise missiles and thousands of cluster bombs, were launched against Yugoslavia. Other reports, often from opposing perspectives, cite up to 80,000 tonnes of bombs The polls showed 93% favored sending troops to Afghanistan at the start of the war and that number declined steadily as the war dragged on until 70% wanted to withdraw.

Iran attack

Hitler took power in 1933 and the world watched as he built up the military, something he was forbidden to do by the Treaty of Versailles. Then he embarked on a program to take the Saar Region in 1935, the Rhineland in 1936, Austria in 1938, Sudetenland in 1938, Czechoslovakia in 1939 and Memel in late 1939. Then Sept 1,1939 he invaded Poland and the West had had enough and declared war on Germany. Historians now agree that if Hitler had been challenged when took he the Saar Region, it might have prevented WW 2. Today the West is faced with the dictators in Iran building up their military. For 47 years this theocracy has stated their goal is to wipe Israel off the map. Once again, the West tried to negotiate using state craft and various sanctions but Iran kept on building more rockets and drones along with the constant threat of nuclear bombs but through it all the West responded with more threats. Jump ahead 20 years and Iran launches a major attack on Israel and Israel responds with nuclear bombs and the West is stunned. Millions are killed outright and many more suffer radiation burns. It is Nagasaki all over again only many times worse. Years later the historians agree that if Iran had been stopped earlier this could have been prevented. It is not possible to predict the future but when a dictatorship says for 50 years, they want to destroy their enemies, it is wise to pay attention. The way many have responded to the attack on Iran offers the reasons why world leaders were fearful of acting. It is always easier to put off action when possible and pass the buck.

Policy

California is the US equivalent of Europe’s Germany. Here are some of the similarities. Both are trying to replace fossil fuels with wind and solar. Both are ending their nuclear power production. Both have the highest utility cost in their respective continents. Both have strained their social safety net by allowing to many migrants Both are importing oil and natural gas Both are reducing the number of oil refineries Both are suffering from excess regulations Both are losing top industries and industrialist Both are experiencing rapid increases in debt Both are experiencing long term declines in native population Other than population, all of these changes are caused by government policy which is not changing. Just this month the Green Party achieved an election victory in Germany.

Populstion

Articles from the 1980s on world population highlighted a "population explosion" crisis, with global numbers reaching 4.4 billion in 1980 and 5 billion by 1987. Key themes included fears of environmental strain, the need for family planning in developing nations. Today the story is just the opposite in that they predict that the world is running out of people and certain countries like Japan, China and Italy are in dire straits. If indeed there is a shortage of people on the horizon, how will the world respond. First off, many experts have declared that AI will take over many jobs. Others suggest that AI will bring forth medical improvement that will allow people to work into their 80’s. A third idea is shortening the work week. This can be accomplished if productivity increases. In any event the experts had to reverse direction in just a few years.

Iran

In today’s world major changes take place almost overnight. As little as two years ago, Israel was surrounded by enemies whose stated goal was to remove Israel from the map. Syria was the pipeline of war materials to Hezbollah; Hamas and the Houthis were lobbing rockets into Irael and they were all financed by Iran. Today Assad is gone from Syria, and the others are mostly ineffective. While many of the Muslim countries restrict the rights of women, gays and Christians, Israel remains a beacon of freedom. In Israel, 21% of the population is Arab and they are citizens with all the rights accorded to citizens. Iran has been a state sponsor of terrorism since 1980 and their demise will bring peace to the Middle East and open the road to a two state solution for Palestine.