U235 part two

For uranium 235 to be used in small nuclear reactors it must be enriched from .7% to 15% and there is only one place in the US where this is done and that is a plant in New Mexico. The Centrus Energy company has started production in Ohio, and a new plant is planned in Tennessee. There are currently six companies in the US, one in Canada and one in England focusing on factory built modular reactors. The Trump administration is actively pushing the development and deployment of Small Nuclear Reactors (SMR’s) with an $800 million funding for projects in Michigan and Tennessee. This includes fast tracking regulations and promoting SMR’s for national defense. Private companies like Google, Amazon and Microsoft are spending $15 billion on developing SMR’s. The use of renewables cannot keep up with the need for electric power and nuclear is the only viable source of carbon free energy

U235 part one

There are nine naturally occurring radioactive elements including uranium and thorium. A radioactive element is unstable and breaks apart into new elements. It is a natural, random and uncontrollable process. Some elements are fissile meaning they can sustain the breakdown to the point of critical, leading to a nuclear explosion. Uranium, like most elements, is composed of different types called isotopes. The two isotopes vary by the number of neutrons in the nucleus. U238 has three more neutrons than U235 and it is only the U235 that can be used in a bomb. Uranium in nature is 99.3% U238 and only .7% U235, so it must be concentrated or enriched before it can be useful. The standard reactor needs U235 at 3.5 to 5%. These are formed as small pellets and put into 12-foot-long tubes and then placed in the reactor core and they are replaced about every five years. For the newer small nuclear reactors called modular reactors, the fuel must be enriched to 15% and is in the form of pellets about the size of a jelly bean. These are fed into the reactor on a continuous basis as needed and if the supply is interrupted, the reactor shuts down. This is known as walk away safety, since the unit shuts down if the power goes off and the fuel supply stops. U235 must be enriched to 20% to be used in weapons but most is enriched to 90%. One of the advantages of thorium is that it cannot be used for bombs but can be used in pellet form for the safety feature. Also, thorium is more abundant and does not have to be enriched. The first reactor made, used thorium but the government changed to uranium so they could make bombs.

Iran

Iran has been engaged in acts of violence, including the killing of American citizens and military personnel, for over four decades, primarily beginning with the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Here are some highlights 1983 Bombing the US Embassy and killing 241 Marines 1984 Kidnapping and killing CIA station chief William Buckley 1980 to present. Sustained campaigns using proxies like Hezbollah to kill US troops Presidents Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama, Biden and now Trump have stood by using diplomacy in an attempt to stop Iran but no action has been taken. Each feared that things could go wrong and the Monday morning quarterbacks were waiting in the weeds to jump out and make political hay. Congress would demand that the president consult them before acting which would give them the right to complain the loudest if things went wrong. They would sit safely on the sidelines awaiting their opportunity to spring forward with condemnations. Will Trump be the one to finally take action. Stay tuned.

California

Germany, the once industrial giant of Europe is in rapid decline because of five reasons. First, they decided to replace fossil fuels with wind and solar promising to be net zero by 2045. Second, they opened the door to migrants and one million came in 2015 alone. Third, they chose to stop buying natural gas from Russia. Forth, they overloaded the country with regulations and fifth their population is getting older and there are not enough workers to pay for retirees. California is following a somewhat similar path. First, they decided to replace fossil fuels with wind and solar and planned to be carbon free by 2045. Second, they shut down their refineries and oil pipelines causing shortages which led to higher prices. Third, they declared themselves a sanctuary state and let in millions of migrants. Forth, they expanded regulations to the extent that it is difficult for any business to operate or to build a house. Fifth, they are facing $1.3 trillion in long term debt to pay for retirees. Last month, California’s Legislative Analyst’s Office, or LAO, which is the nonpartisan state department that advises California’s policymakers on the state’s fiscal issues, increased their estimate for the state’s 2024–25 budget deficit to $73 billion. The comparisons between Germany and California are frightening. They are not changing. In 2022 the state passed a law saying all new cars must be electric by 2035.

Wealth gap

The state of Washington is proposing a wealth tax of 10% on all income over $1 million and a one percent tax on all assets over $250 million. The amount owed on the first will be easy to calculate but not so the second. Very rich people will have to disclose all of their assets and they don’t want to do that. Some will choose to leave the state. This was tried and failed in Europe. Wealth taxes in Europe largely failed to meet expectations, leading most countries to repeal them by 2019. While intended to raise revenue and reduce inequality, these taxes generated minimal income, triggered significant capital flight, and were costly to administer’ Major countries that abolished these taxes include Austria, Denmark, Germany, France, Sweden, Finland, Iceland, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands. The easiest way to tax the rich is using the progressing income tax system. The current top tax bracket is 37% with another with an extra 3.8% on capital gains. When Reagan took office in 1981 the top tax rate was 70%. Another approach is to remove the capital gains category which is now taxed at 20%. The first step in doing that is what the Netherlands just did and that is taxing unrealized capital gains. In the US if you have a large gain in stocks you do not pay any tax until you sell but in the Netherlands you pay tax on gains each year whether you sell or not.

Climate

Virtue signaling is a new phrase and means the public expression of opinions or sentiments intended to demonstrate one’s good character or social conscience or the moral correctness of one’s position on a particular issue. This can also happen with entire nations. Starting about 20 years ago Germany announced that it would be zero carbon by 2045. That represents a good example of virtue signaling. They would do this by shutting down their coal plants and their nuclear plants and buying solar panels and wind mills from China. As so often happens, this only tells part of the story. It turns out that China is using coal and natural gas to make the solar panels and windmills. This same thing happens in California. The state has many solar fields and during the high sun times produces more energy than is needed, so the excess is sold to neighboring states. Later when the sun goes down, California buys back the energy from other states but that energy was produced using fossil fuels. Most of the world is slowly coming around to understand that wind and solar cannot replace fossil fuels but nuclear can. Germany is now increasing its coal production and considering reopening its nuclear plants. If science had prevailed instead of climate activist, all of this back and forth could have been avoided and the world would be closer to zero carbon. Yet even today the activists are hanging on to their old way of thinking and many still oppose nuclear power.

AI hires

In economics 101 they teach that the two main drivers of the economy are labor and capital. In Europe’s social democracy they lean toward labor while in the US the emphasis is on capital. Both of these systems are based on consumption and thus both require population growth. Countries around the world, other than Africa, are in the throes of population decline meaning less consumption. Since consumers are also the producers, will automation be the solution. If there are fewer people and the productivity increases because of AI, will that balance the loss of workers. Just at the time when robotics can replace workers there will be fewer workers. Over the past year I have been to two eye doctors and working at both were a dozen young people, most of whom did not go to college. They were all trained on the job to use complicated electronic machines used to provide the doctor with information. This is the future of AI hiring and will occur in many businesses.