Iran

In today’s world major changes take place almost overnight. As little as two years ago, Israel was surrounded by enemies whose stated goal was to remove Israel from the map. Syria was the pipeline of war materials to Hezbollah; Hamas and the Houthis were lobbing rockets into Irael and they were all financed by Iran. Today Assad is gone from Syria, and the others are mostly ineffective. While many of the Muslim countries restrict the rights of women, gays and Christians, Israel remains a beacon of freedom. In Israel, 21% of the population is Arab and they are citizens with all the rights accorded to citizens. Iran has been a state sponsor of terrorism since 1980 and their demise will bring peace to the Middle East and open the road to a two state solution for Palestine.

Rash actions

The change of heart in Hollywood happened over time. The mostly conservative Hollywood of the pre–WW 2 years has become a mostly liberal Hollywood. The change accelerated during the McCarthy hearings in the early 1950’s. Far right wingers motivated by their fear of communism pushed to rid Hollywood of its Commies. Many actors were black listed based on accusations and innuendo. This was followed in 1952 by the Supreme Court ruling that films were a form of free speech. Studies show that creative people are removed from reality and it allows them to empathize with others. Combine that with virtue signaling and you have a modern day progressive. This combination permits these creative people to champion minorities without thinking through the possible results of their actions. Releasing repeat criminals into society because of some past real or perceived injustice glosses over the risk of another crime. Bringing in migrants because they are escaping an intolerable situation in their homeland opens the door to molesting women and girls on their trip, leading minors into harm, making big profits for cartels who get paid to bring people to the border and reap profits from drug sales not to mention the strain on schools and healthcare facilities. Empathy must be moderated with reason before action is taken. This will minimize the possible unintended consequences.

Post Trump

Over the 250-year history of the US, the country periodically finds itself in turmoil, while it reinvents itself. The last time this happened was during FDR’s time, when the depression was followed by the Great War. During these times of crisis FDR was admired by many and feared by many. This was followed by 50 years of cold war and quiet long-term growth, which included the civil rights era and most important, the increased power handed over to the federal bureaucracy. The first step in reinventing is the violation of the norms and this can be heard in the way Trump is defined. He is not presidential meaning he is not like other presidents. He upset the republican party, the democratic party and the US relations with the rest of the world. Roosevelt also broke the norms and, in many cases, broke the laws but the country survived and grew. The current turmoil will continue for several more years and even after Trump is out of office. Some will desire to return to the world before Trump but going back will not work. Too much will have changed not the least of which is the effects of AI. The next ten years will see the greatest changes and growth in US history. Get ready young people.

Netherlands

The US income tax system has a special carveout for investors. The top income tax rate on earned income (wages) is 37% but the top tax rate on unearned income (investments) is only 20%. It has often been proposed to do away with the special break for investors and the Netherlands recent did the equivalent. They passed a law to tax the unrealized gains on investment. In the past the tax on gains would not take effect until the investment was sold. You buy stock for a dollar and year later it is worth 2 dollars but there is no tax until you sell then the gain of one dollar would be taxed at 20%. The Netherlands new law says that you will pay the tax even if you don’t sell and it will be at 37%. This in essence, removes the special tax status from the gains. If the US would adopt this then the special status for investment income would no longer exist. It would hit mostly higher income people and bring in about $10 billion per year. On the downside it would discourage investment.

National debt

Since 1950 prices have increased by 3.5% each year while government spending has increased by 7% resulting in a $37 trillion-dollar national debt. Public assistance programs including federal and state have increased by 6%. Raising taxes to reduce debt doesn’t work because when the government gets new income it spends the money on new programs. People believe that tax increases can lower the debt but polls show that people do not want their taxes raised. 70% favor taxing the rich. It is the old story, don’t tax you, don’t tax me, tax the man behind the tree. The US currently has the most progressive tax system in the world and most people want to tax the rich even more. History has shown that just increasing taxes will not reduce the debt. The answer is to reduce spending but that is very unpopular especially among people who receive public assistance. Politicians know this so it is just about impossible to stop the increase in benefits. Benefits include not only welfare (public assistance) to the poor but tax breaks for the rich, things like the home mortgage interest deduction. Once in a great while a politician will campaign on raising taxes but they do not get elected. The most famous case is the Mondale campaign against Reagan in 1984. During his 1984 presidential campaign, Democratic nominee Walter Mondale famously pledged to raise taxes to reduce the federal budget deficit, stating, Mr. Reagan will raise taxes and so will I. He won’t tell you. I just did. His plan aimed to raise $85 billion, primarily targeting corporations and wealthy Americans. Reagan won 49 states and 525 electoral votes, the most in history. He barely squeaked out a victory in his home state of MN by 3,761 votes….1,036,364 to 1,032,603. Reagan dramatically lowered taxes but he increased spending by far more and the debt ballooned from 33% of GDP to 53%. Today it is 120%.

Europe's obit

In 1941 the US stepped in to save Europe from self-destruction but today Climate change is writing Europe’s obituary. Starting about 40 years ago various climate activist groups like Greenpeace took control of the government. They believed they were saving the world by going all out to eliminate fossil fuels. It was an emotional response void of real science and pushed forward by false science. Even though the goal was carbon free they decided to close the nuclear plants which was one of the results of acting on emotion. This same lack of thinking things through, led them to believe that solar and wind could be their sole energy sources, only to later discover that Germany, the economic engine of Europe is not that sunny or windy. In 1993 they formed the European Union and turned the government over to the bureaucrats in Brussels, who saw their job was to write regulations to promote green energy. This had the effect of bringing any new innovation or industry to a grinding halt. Google AI says it this way: There is a strong consensus among business leaders and analysts that Europe is heavily burdened by regulations, which some reports suggest stifles innovation, slows competitiveness, and imposes high compliance costs. Europe, since WW 2 has depended on the US for national defense and they used their funds to build high speed transportation and social programs, often pointing out that they had national healthcare. Then came the Ukraine War and the cheap gas from Russia disappeared. At the same time the US, carrying $37 trillion in debt told Europe, they would have to increase their defense spending. To make things worse Europe is not replacing its population. In 2023 3.7 million babies were born in Europe and 4.7 million people died. The result is that Europe is deindustrializing while America is reindustrializing.

SAT

The College Board is a non-profit group that deals with the SAT and ACT entrance exams. It has been around for a hundred years and many times shown to be biased toward a certain class, mainly white and higher income. This caused many schools to do away with the SAT and revert back to GPA’s but those had suffered from grade inflation and were a poor substitute for testing. Now some schools are reviving the SAT. The College Board which is a $1.3 billion business is the only game in town. They have now moved into determining what kind of course work high schools should have and highlight Advanced Placement (AP) courses. The teachers teach to the test and many students purchase past test to review. No matter what changes they make, the more affluent and whiter the student is the better the performance. In one attempt to rectify this, the College Board started an AP class called African American Studies, which included topics like critical race theory (CRT), intersectionality and queer theory. Recent attempts to help, including Common Core and No Child Left Behind, have only caused headaches for teachers and confusion for students. The test score gap between whites and minorities continues to widen. Recent changes in the economy, based on new manufacturing jobs and AI, may move students away from college and required skills not measured by mental acuity test but more toward practical learning.