New ways

After WW 2 and picking up steam in the 1960’s, Neoliberalism, which emphasizes free market capitalism, deregulation and reduced government intervention moved forward to facilitate globalization which was the integration of world economies by opening up world markets and allowing capital to flow across borders. The global integration of trade, finance and telecommunications created strong investor protections and established the World Trade Organization (WTO). This allowed multinational corporations to operate globally with minimal state interference and greatly expanded supply chains. National governments shifted from protecting local industries to competing for foreign investments. The end result was twofold. First it moved a billion people out of poverty mostly in Asia and second it moved western manufacturing jobs to Asia. This led to two major adjustments. First wages for working people in the West and in particular the US Midwest stagnated for 50 years and second profits for large corporations and their stockholders exploded. This led to the widening of the wealth gap which is plaguing the US to this day. Trump, before he even entered politics, saw this as a threat to the middle-income groups and saw China as the number one protagonist. He saw how corporate greed and China’s manipulation of currency worked together to hurt the American worker. To attempt to challenge this he had to go up against the establishment, the very people who had profited from the system, and they responded by demonizing him. He was a threat to democracy or at least their way of doing business. He was well aware of the rebuke he would receive if he threatened the status quo. He upset both political parties along with the world’s way of doing business and these groups are not happy. They will fight to the end to maintain the old ways. Trumps first steps will be to bring manufacturing jobs back home and the take on the unfair trade practices while forcing other countries to start paying more for their own defense and forcing others to pay their fair share of international groups like the UN and NATO.

Platner

The nomination of Graham Platner, the Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate in Maine, will allow the country to move away from personality and on to policy. He supports universal health care along with universal child care. He proposes a billionaire minimum tax and a windfall profits tax on oil companies. He proposes eliminating the federal gas tax. He wants federal funding for housing and raising the minimum wage. He supports the abolishing of ICE and replacing that with a legal pathway to citizenship for migrants. Most middle- and lower-income people would be happy with these policies and that should be enough voters to get him elected.

Iran War

The U.S. House of Representatives most recently passed a war powers resolution directing the President to end hostilities and withdraw military forces from Iran. Under the 1973 War Powers Act, the President can introduce U.S. Armed Forces into hostilities for up to 60 days without congressional authorization. One of the attacks that warranted a lot of attention was the accidental bombing of a girl’s school where 120 children were killed. On March 31, 2011 NATO forces led by the US began bombing Libya under the Responsibility to Protect doctrine. This is invoked when the security situation in a country remains fragile, compounded by economic mismanagement and arms proliferation. The doctrine posits that sovereignty implies a responsibility to protect populations from mass atrocities, and if a state is unwilling or unable to do so, that responsibility falls to the international community. The bombing continued for 220 days until the Gaddafi government was overthrown which led to a civil war and unrest in the country remains to this day. What happened to the policy if you break it, you own it? Estimates for the 2011 Libyan Civil War death toll range from 15,000 to 30,000 deaths across both anti-Gaddafi rebels and pro-regime forces. Congress never passed a formal authorization or declaration of war for the mission. Four times in the past ten years the people of Iran have taken to the streets to protest against their government and each time the protest met with a military response, the last time an estimated 30,000 civilians were killed. The difference between Obama’s foray into Libya and the present situation in Iran is that Obama used the cover of NATO and Trump chose to go it alone. NATO without the US is much like the UN, all bark and no bite. Diplomatic negotiations without the possibility of enforcement is a waste of time.

European economy

The United States must once again come to the rescue of Europe because of policies they have pursued. It began, in earnest, with the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 where countries agreed to limit production of green house gas emissions. Europe, concerned about global warming, moved to replace fossil fuels with wind and solar. It was an emotional decision done without considering the long-term ramifications. First off Europe doesn’t have that much wind or sun and second, they didn’t consider the fact that both wind and solar are intermittent and need back up. Germany, the industrial powerhouse of Europe decided to shut down their coal plants along with their nuclear plants. Then they chose to stop using Russian natural gas and watched their energy cost quadruple. In 2008, the GDP per capita in Europe was 76% of the US and by 2023 that had fallen to 50%. Europe can no longer compete on the world market and production is moving to China and the US. One of the ironies is that Europe is using windmills and solar panels made in China where 60% of their energy comes from coal. The result is that Europe is now dependent on liquified natural gas (LNG) from America, where imports have increased from 4% to over 60% over the past five years. Without this LNG their economy would crash.

Voter fraud

California is under investigation for voter fraud but that should be the last state to rely on fraud. The state has 10 million registered democrats and 5 million registered republicans so there would be no need for fraud. The system is set up to cause concern about fraud. Every registered voter gets a ballot in the mail. They do not have voter ID and voters can return their ballot by mail, in person, put it in drop box or have a third party deliver the ballot. Ballots are sent out a month before election and this causes some concern because ballot harvesting is legal in California. Prior to 2013 a voter had to be ill or disabled for someone else to return their ballot and that person had to be a family member. After 2013 any family member could return a ballot regardless of health. In 2016 anyone could return ballots and there was no limit on how many they could return. Those who are concerned about fraud suggest that people could be contacted by ballot collectors and could then be instructed on how to fill out the ballot.

Unions

I have long been a proponent of private company unions but opposed to public unions. At the end of WW 2 over 30% of workers were members of private unions but today that figure has fallen to 6% and in the process wages for working people have stagnated. The growth in public sector unions has been the reverse going from less than 4% in 1950 to 32% today. Public unions create inherent conflicts of interest and lack market constraints since they negotiate with taxpayer money. The result has been long term debt accumulation by states and the federal government. Public unions have kept defined pension benefit plans while most private companies have moved on to the far less costly 401k plans. A simple example clearly explains the problem. John starts his career working for the state at age 24 and retires at age 62. His final salary is $80,000. He contributes $4,800 (6%) into his pension. He pays $6,120 (7.65%) into social security/Medicare. He pays $6,931 in federal income tax and $3,625 in MN state income tax. His take home pay is $58,524. At retirement his pay is 1.7% times the number of years he worked (38) times his final salary of $80,000 or $51,680. His social security benefit is 19,000 for total gross income of $70,680. After tax he takes home $60,431 which is more than he was making while working. All states are in debt, primarily because of pension obligations but some states like California, New York and Illinois are particularly egregious. The public unions in California are in many ways running the state. The number of California retirees collecting a public pension of more than $100,000 hit an all time high of 79,235 last year, up 85% since 2013. Of these 13,000 are teachers. President Franklin D. Roosevelt opposed public sector unions because he believed the government employer is the public itself. He argued that a strike by government workers was an intolerable effort to obstruct the operations of government, and that democratic processes—not collective bargaining—should dictate public policy

Dumping

China is up to its old tricks but this time on steroids. They have a glut of manufactured items that they are trying to dump on the world market but countries are following the US and placing high tariffs on imports from China. In September 2024 the Biden administration increased tariffs on Chinese EV’s to 100% and this ended any EV’s coming from China. Europe is finally waking up and is now increasing tariffs on Chinese EV’s but they are not high enough yet to make the Chinese cars as expensive as European EV's produced in Europe. The current tariff on Chinese imported EV’s is 50% but that is not high enough to level the playing field because sales of Chinese EV’s account for 42% of all EV’s sold in Europe. China is using the same dumping process on many other products.