2028

Looking ahead to the 2028 presidential election several things are clear. The democrats will be unable to drag themselves to the center since all of the party’s energy is to the left. Will they be unable to disconnect from the cultural items like men in women’s sports, gender surgery on minors, gay issues, identity politics and badmouthing republicans long enough to discuss policies. They will discuss the economy but their solutions to problems will be all about taxing the rich and expanding government benefit programs. The republicans will bring up law and order, deportations, fair trade, lower taxes, secure border and energy independence. They will concentrate on creating new industries through free market innovation (AI) and thus new high paying jobs. This means increased productivity which leads to low inflation and could be well underway by election time.

The future

“It’s not your father Oldsmobile”, was a slogan used back in the 80’s to illustrate the new engineering in the auto industry. This is an apt saying for what is happening to manufacturing, as the US goes into the era of reindustrialization, as globalization comes to an end. In the past workers in manufacturing plants were assigned repetitive task as they stood on assembly lines and it was called a factory job. In the new plants robots will do these jobs and the employees will shift from manual assembly to managing advanced technology. Workers will operate, program, and maintain robotics and AI systems, analyze real-time data dashboards, oversee quality control, and solve complex, high-value technical problems. These jobs will be shared by technicians and engineers. The techies will be high school grads who will learn on the job. It will be an apprenticeship program much like unions have. More training leads to higher skills which leads to higher productivity which leads to higher wages. The US plans to double its industrial base over the next ten years and it will be a wild ride so get ready, the world is changing.

Working class

The end of WW 2 saw the beginnings of globalization. For forty years between 1955 and 1995 the democrats controlled the congress and then the republicans took over for the next 12 years until 2007 and that was the end of globalization. During those years both parties, but mostly democrats, claimed to be the party of the working man. It was during those years that the foundation of the working man crumbled as manufacturing jobs were shipped overseas. Added to that was the structural disadvantage with tariffs. The US followed in the believe that free trade was best for all and that is the case but while the trade was free it was not fair. The US had tariffs of 2 to 4% while the rest of the world taxed US imports at 5 to15%. Many of the US trading partners used child labor, had few environmental laws and used mostly coal power. On top of that the US paid more than its fair share for NATO, the UN and all of its affiliates and used its military power to protect all allies. This system expanded the income and wealth gap and those in control want things to remain the same but all that is changing. The new way will be free and fair trade, countries paying for their defense and manufacturing jobs coming back home. This will promote the working class with good jobs.

Germany today

In 2015 in the midst of the Syrian Civil War, Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany opened her heart and her borders to a million refugees. She was praised for her compassion and the press created a saint like aura around her. These people were Muslims and that made her even more the humanitarian. Today, things look quite different. The Muslim immigrants failed to assimilate as the barriers of religion, language and culture were too great to overcome. The schools were crowded with students who could not speak the language, the healthcare system was bogged down, the price of housing escalated as demand exceeded supply and gangs formed which led to high crime numbers. Today the German government is changing direction. Germany is actively deporting migrants and has significantly increased its removal efforts as part of a nationwide crackdown on irregular migration. The government has enacted stricter legal reforms and expanded police powers to remove individuals without legal status, including convicted criminals. The same thing is happening in countries across Europe.

Win or lose

Once again America has gone off to war without a commitment to win. The politics places severe limitations on what the generals can do. It has been the same since WW 2, the last time the US went to war to win. The US is not allowed to cause any civilian losses and so things just drag on. The Iranians will without reservation put their people in harms way. One school was inadvertently bombed and it made national news for a week. The Iranians threatened to surround their power plants with civilians if the US attempted to bomb them. This is the same strategy that Hamas used against the Jews. They built miles of underground tunnels with the entrances and exits located in schools, hospitals and Mosque. When any civilian was killed, they put that on the national news and embarrassed the Jews. They were winning the war of public opinion. The Jews for a while followed the US approach but in time they went after Hamas’s fighters who stayed among the public and accepted the public condemnation. The only war that deviated from the current practice since WW 2 was when Bush 41 drove the Iraqi forces out of Kuwait and then when he stopped going after the Republican Guard in Iraq, he faced criticism. The press declared that the US did not win the war because Bush left Saddam off the hook.

MN tax

While the news about companies leaving the state has zeroed in on California, New York and Illinois, Minnesota has quietly set the ground work to join the other states. In 2023 MN passed what was called the Omnibus Bill. While that sounds all grown up and official, experience has shown that what it means is there is something in the bill that they are trying to cover up. The news about the bill covered housing, jobs, environment and public safety but what was not covered were the provisions designed to increase state income tax on multinational corporations. Instead of just taxing the income produced within the state, the new law would tax all of the company’s income both in state and out. United Healthcare which is the largest company in MN based on revenue has announced it is beginning to move some of its corporate employees to Texas and Tennessee. Without much fanfare the company moved 2,000 employees out of the state. This is seen by some business experts as just the beginning. The Minnesota 2023 omnibus tax bill included provisions that increase corporate taxes on large businesses, which includes companies like UnitedHealthcare.

Donations

In 2010 the Supreme Court issued the ruling on Citizens United which declared campaign money to be free speech and prohibited the government from placing restrictions on campaign contributions. This caused a great deal of concern by the democratic party thinking it would be a bonanza for the republicans but over time the fury died out. In the 2012 presidential election Obama spent $1.1 billion and Romney $1 billion and there was not much effect. In 2016 Clinton spent $1.2 billion vs Trump at $774 million. In 2020 Biden spent $1.06 billion and Trump $774 million. In 2024 Harris spent $1.16 billion and Trump $477 million. If the Citizens United had any effect on campaign money it seems to have helped the democrats the most. The billionaires favor republicans but the democrats make up by small donations. When it comes to small donations (under $200) Harris leads the way with $428 million which equates to 43% of all her donations. Trump received $109 million which represented 29% of his donations. About 65% of billionaires donate to republicans. While donations get a lot of news coverage the amount of money is not having the expected results. Some say this is because the main stream news outlets are being replaced by social media.