Saturday, May 9, 2026

Intel

Most people remember the slogan, Intel inside, back in 2000 when Intel was the world leader in chips. Instead of continuing to develop new chips they rested on their laurels, a big mistake in any industry and especially in the tech world, and lost their leadership position to Nvidia. In early 2024 the company regrouped under new management in an attempt to turn things around and so far, they have been successful. They recaptured some of the Apple market that they lost and Musk is using their new chip in his, “Terafab” factory in Austin, TX. In less than a year their stock has risen from $21 to $120. As a part of their turnaround the US government purchased 433 million shares at $21 on Aug of 2025. The value of Intel is somewhat similar to Tesla in that it is mostly Blue Sky. Intel property, plant and equipment is valued at $105 billion but is market value (stock) is valued at $600 billion. Tesla’s property value (assets) is valued at $60 billion while its market value is $1.4 trillion. The stockholders have faith in the long-term success of each company but in the high-tech world, things can change overnight. It is a high risk, high return business.

Friday, May 8, 2026

The rich

Congresswoman AOC repeated the story told by Obama when he said that no individual develops a successful business on their own. They need the schools and infrastructure to help them. AOC said that billionaires did not succeed without the help of government rules and roads. This is, of course true, but most people have access to these facilities but only a few become billionaires. These people have something that most do not and it is more than roads and laws.

Iran and UN

Many Americans see the UN as out of step with common sense policies. A recent example illustrates why many feel that way. In April 2026, the UN’s Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) nominated Iran to the Committee for Program and Coordination, a key body that shapes policy on human rights, women’s rights, and terrorism. The nomination was approved by consensus, without a formal vote, with support from several democracies, including Canada, France, Spain, Norway, the Netherlands, Australia, the United Kingdom, Finland, Switzerland and Austria. How can they be considered champions of women’s rights when the women in Iran are treated as second class citizens? The same goes for terrorism when Iran is considered the leading sponsor of terrorism in the world.

Too far

Most Americans have limited knowledge of astronomy so when the news reports the possibility of alien visitor it seems possible. Polls show that most people would like there to be visitors from some other part of the universe but unless there are laws of physics that have not been discovered, it is not likely. A scientist will always be open to yet discovered possibilities but some things are so close to impossible that it might be considered waste of time to investigate. While radio contact from space is definitely possible, the contact with a life form is another story. The big problem is distance which most people do not comprehend. Voyager One has been traveling 49 years at 36,000 mph and is now 16 billion miles from earth. That is 320 million miles per year. At this speed it will take 75,000 years to reach the nearest star.

Gas rationing

So far, the loss of oil from the Persian Gulf has been made up by reserves but in time the shortage will affect refineries and that will cause industry shutdowns and possible rationing. The US has increased exports by 30% since the start of the war and that has reduced pressure on supplies. The world will soon see how Iran could, at any time, disrupt the economies of the world. At this point they can be challenged but if they get a nuke then they could not be forced to open the Straights. This would put the world at the mercy of a group of military extremists who do not care if they or their people die. They have already shown that they do not care about the lives of the Iranian citizens. Once they achieve this control, they can begin to dictate policy for other countries including the US. The people of the US will be unwilling to accept gas rationing and will demand the government accede to the Iranian demands. Like all irrational dictators their demands will increase over time. Americans will vote for people who will agree to Iranian demands. The push for nuclear power will accelerate around the globe as countries move away from dependence on oil and natural gas.

Iran and food

The government in Iran is headed by the Supreme Leader, Khamenei and reporting directly to him is the President Pazeshkian and the IRGC leader Vahidi. The President controls domestic policy and the IRGC represents the military. The Supreme leader is incapacitated with injuries suffered from a US attack and the military is now running the country. The IRGC has killed thousands of citizens when they protested in the streets on five different occasions over the past six years. The IRGC fully understands that if they lose control the people will rise up and come after them. There are 90 million Iranians and only 190,000 IRGC but they have the guns. There are 9 million Kurdish people living in Northern Iran and another 25 million living along the Iranian border in Turkey and Syria. The Kurds have long wanted their own state and the US could solicit help from them to fight the IRGC. This would require US logistical support meaning ground weapons and air support. This combined with internal disruptions by the CIA could make it difficult for the IRGC to maintain power. Once they are weakened the people could rise up against the government and have a better chance of success. The most likely scenario is that the country will run short on food and when the citizens see their children going hungry, they will rebel and many will be killed. Better to die fighting in the streets than starve.

Thursday, May 7, 2026

Budget

Many people look back on the 1990’s, the last time the budget was balanced and ask why can’t it be done again. The answer is the peace dividend. Following the Cold War's end, the US "peace dividend" resulted in over 30% cuts to the defense budget and over 60% cuts to procurement in the 1990s, with ~80% of $81 billion in savings used to reduce the federal deficit. Many observers think that it is impossible to cut federal government spending as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). But it can be done. And the evidence is hidden in plain sight: it’s called the 1990s. Between 1990 and 2000, federal spending fell from 21.85 percent of GDP to 18.22 percent, a drop of 3.6 percentage points. Most of the reduction was in defense spending after the Cold War ended. By the 2000’s the defense spending was back up to the cold war levels.