Failures

On Morning Joe this AM there was general agreement that the Republicans spent the past 8 years trying to make Obama look bad and failed and this in turn left them with no plan on how to govern. They said the Republican health care plan is following the same path that Obama followed. They are over promising and trying to coerce the last two senators to vote. They are trying to pass a bill without any Democratic support. The bill has not been openly discussed. So after figuring this out, the Democrats are now spending all of their time trying to make Trump look bad and cause him to fail. This all sounds eerily familiar and is further proof that party is more important than country.

Lawns

Many people who express concern about the environment live in houses surrounded by lawns. 80 million households containing 32 million acres of lawn, which is more than the land used for corn planting, and each lawn uses 10,000 gallons of non-rain water per year. Fertilizer and Chemicals – An awful lot of fertilizer and chemicals get used to keep lawns looking lush and green. The US EPA states that on average, Americans buy 70 million pounds of fertilizer per year. The National Gardening Association estimates that homeowners use over 125 million pounds of pesticides to kill grubs, ants, and other insects, and herbicides to kill those pesky dandelions, per year. These chemicals not only harm the things you’re after, they can be toxic to people and other animals. Americans use 100 million mowers, trimmers, leaf blowers and mowers alone produce as much pollution as 2 million cars. One gas mower running for an hour emits the same amount of pollutants as eight new cars driving 55 mph for the same amount of time, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists.

Mines

From 2001 to 2011 China supplied 90 to 98 percent of rare earths in the global market. The cost of such market dominance, however, has also been large. One mine in Ganzhou City that produces 9% of China’s rare earth required $5.5 billion in clean up cost. Among the waste is radioactive thorium where in one mine 70,000 tons is stored in a large slurry lake. There are illegal rare earth mines all over China and there is no environmental control over them. As China crakes down on these mines the prices are rising quickly. Processing rare earths is a dirty business. Their ore is often laced with radioactive materials such as thorium, and separating the wheat from the chaff requires huge amounts of carcinogenic toxins – sulphates, ammonia and hydrochloric acid. Processing one ton of rare earths produces 2,000 tons of toxic waste; Baotou's rare earths enterprises produce 10m tons of wastewater per year. They're pumped into tailings dams, like the one by Wang's village, 12km west of the city centre. The push to get rid of fossil fuels has spawned many articles on the waste products from fracking but these pale in comparison to what happens at a rare earth mine. These rare earths are essential in the production of our high tech products such as solar panels and wind turbines. If it were not for those profiting from this new technology, information about these mines would be more public. A strong case can be made that environmentalist who oppose fossil fuel are politically motivated as evidenced by their lack of concern about rare earth mining.

Free lunch

Health care is now shaping up to be a battle between the latest Republican approach and Bernie Sanders push for single payer. The Republican plan is something new and unproven and risky since it pushes most of the responsibility onto the states. The single payer plan was recently proposed for California and turned down by the legislature which is overwhelmingly democratic. The reason was cost. A legislative analysis found that California’s single-payer plan would cost $400 billion to implement, $200 billion of which would be new spending. Critics were quick to point out that this “hefty” price tag is twice the state budget. Furthermore, the bill did not include a funding plan (although the bill’s language ensured that Healthy California would not launch unless it was funded). It is becoming obvious to those who watch such things that the words, “affordable health care” seem to be an oxymoron. The debate now going on is one plan too late. If this same scrutiny had been applied to Obamacare it would never have passed. The creeping truth that is beginning to appear is that affordable plans include high deductibles where usage is limited. Obamacare was a push in that direction but the cost was shifted because many people have no premium and no deductible. We seem to have forgotten the old adage, “there ain’t no free lunch”.

Insurance for all

The latest political rumor is that Bernie Sanders will run again in 2020 and his main theme will be government health insurance for all. There are basically two ways to do this and we have good examples of both. Medicare is a single payer system. The government runs it and you can choose your doctor and hospital. You show your card to a provider and that activates the government to pay your bill. This is what Germany uses. The next way is called socialized medicine and that is represented by the VA. Here the government owns the hospitals and clinics and all of the doctors, nurses and other employees work directly for the government and this is the system used in England. In both cases wealthy people can get additional services by paying out of pocket. We also have Medicaid which is a government plan for low income people.

Voters

On Morning Joe today they experience a group Epiphany. Several members had been out in Midwest talking to voters and they realized that the same people who voted for Obama twice voted for Trump. When asked why, the people responded by saying, he talks like me. He doesn’t think I’m stupid! It was surprising to these New York talking heads that the hard working blue collar types are the same people accused of being racist, homophobes, bigots and xenophobes all dependent on the way they vote. The political experts inside the Democratic Party have figured this out and all of them are planning a strategy for the 2018 elections that includes winning back the deplorables. They finally understand that the more they put down Trump the more these voters see that as putting them down so I expect this will change. It has already changed on Morning Joe.

Jews

In 2016 the FBI reported 257 hate crimes against Muslims and so far this year there have been 541 hate crimes against Jews. There are 3.3 million Muslims in the US and 4.2 million Jews. Discrimination against Jews has been a part of American for hundreds of years and in Europe for thousands of years. It has been around for so long it no longer makes news. Things periodically come to light when particular groups go after Jews as is the case now with the Antifa. For those who want to get a better understanding of this anti-Semitism, just watch an old movie starring Gregory Peck called, “A Gentleman’s Agreement”.

Single payer

There is an old adage that says, figures don’t lie but liars can figure and this is evident when it comes to comparing the administrative cost of Medicare vs private health insurance. Those who promote Medicare for all calculate by comparing administrative cost to total cost on a per patient basis. Since Medicare patients incur higher overall medical cost the percentage is lower. For example if the administrative cost per patient is $30 and a Medicare patient has $1,000 in cost then the percentage is three percent. If that same patient in private care cost $100 then the ratio is 30%. This is because administrative costs are fixed costs. There are other reasons why the administrative cost is skewed in favor of Medicare. First, other government agencies help administer the Medicare program. The Internal Revenue Service collects the taxes that fund the program; the Social Security Administration helps collect some of the premiums paid by beneficiaries (which are deducted from Social Security checks); the Department of Health and Human Services helps to manage accounting, auditing, and fraud issues and pays for marketing costs, building costs, and more. Private insurers obviously don't have this kind of outside or off-budget help. Medicare's administration is also tax-exempt, whereas insurers must pay state excise taxes on the premiums they charge; the tax is counted as an administrative cost. In addition, Medicare's massive size leads to economies of scale that private insurers could also achieve, if not exceed, were they equally large. While the calculations may be in dispute one thing is for sure and that is if the country moves to Medicare for all then many people in the private insurance industry will be out of a job. The big savings in going to Medicare for all is that care can be rationed and this will be most noticed in care for the elderly. Private insurance is rationed by price so the more you pay the more you get but with one plan for all you get what you get.

Redistribution

This past week in school the students were given an assignment to answer the question, what is happiness. As part of the task they were asked to list ten important things they use every day and then cut that list in half and then eliminate three more items and finally to choose one of the last two as the most important thing. I propose a similar test for the rest of us. I will list ten important things. Adequate nutritious food at reasonable cost. Comfortable safe place to live. A job that I like that pays a living wage. Proper health care. An education system that allows for training for life. A secure retirement for seniors. Clean air and water for all. Protection from enemies both foreign and domestic. Opportunities for upward growth. Safety net for those who are disabled or in need. Now your job is to recognize that we live in a world of limited resources and you must begin to cut. It is not reasonable to cut one whole category but to trim some cost from each area. Each person’s list will have different priorities but most people will fall back on the old Marxist concept of redistribution called,” from each according to his means to each according to his needs”.

compromise

Senator majority leader Mitch McConnell is the poster boy for what ails Washington politics. He says the political process requires a deep reflection on new legislation and thus moves slowly. He represents the establishment thinking and this leads to things like working for almost 8 years to replace Obamacare and they can’t get it done. This is one of the reasons that the congress has a 10% approval rating. Perhaps it is time for a house cleaning or as Trump says a draining. These people, 80 of whom have been in office for more than 20 years, need to retire, not because of their seniority but because they have become so entrenched in the old ways they can no longer function. This will not happen. They have spent a career leaning how to keep getting elected, aided by gerrymandering and they will not give up their authority without a fight. McConnell and others of his ilk are probably thinking, I have spent the last 32 years learning the system and its intricacies and I am not about to let some amateurish upstart upset my applecart. We professionals all know the Conservatives stand for A, B and C and liberals stand for X, Y and Z and ne’er shall the twain meet. This new kid on the block is trying to mix A with X and we members of the establishment cannot condone such heresy.

Weather

Once again the proponents of climate change are overplaying their hands and setting back their cause. There is no doubt that the amount of carbon dioxide is increasing and some of that is caused by burning fossil fuels. That said there is no evidence that this is causing hurricanes and they should not say that until such time is it is proven. They are making the amateurish mistake of confusing climate with weather. Weather refers to short term changes in specific areas whereas climate means long term changes over a large area. There have been no hurricanes to hit Florida in the past 12 years and that did not mean that climate change was a hoax and two hurricanes this year does not mean climate change is real. When these proponents jump to conclusions like this they hurt their credibility. The unwillingness of some to admit that climate change is caused by increases in carbon dioxide reminds of the people who think that long term government debt is not a problem. Each of these can lead to serious problems in the future but for political reasons each side is willing to put off doing anything about it.

DACA

The circuitous path of DACA, the program to keep illegal children in the country, has taken yet another tern and one I might add for the better. First Obama said he could not do anything as President to help these children. Responding in October 2010 to demands that he implement immigration reforms unilaterally, Obama declared, "I am not king. I can't do these things just by myself." In March 2011, he said that with "respect to the notion that I can just suspend deportations through executive order, that's just not the case." In May 2011, he acknowledged that he couldn't "just bypass Congress and change the (immigration) law myself. ... That's not how a democracy works. Then later he did just that. Yet in 2012, he did it anyway. He put DACA in place to provide pseudo-legal status to illegal aliens brought to the U.S. as minors, including as teenagers. He promised them that they wouldn't be deported and provided them with work authorizations and access to Social Security and other government benefits. Then Trump recognizing that DACA was illegal announced the end and pushed for congress to decide. This is where laws are written not in the form of executive orders. Congress will now have to do their job, something they have trouble with and thus their 10% approval rating.

Justice

In the recent past cases involving racial shootings with police the local authorities were not trusted to carry out an impartial investigation so the final determination of what happened was left up to the Department of Justice. In the fatal shooting of Michael Brown in Ferguson, MO after weeks of rioting the officer involved was exonerated. In Baltimore the case is even more perplexing. Freddie Gray a black man died while in the custody of police and in addition to the riots that followed the city paid Gray’s family 6.4 million dollars before any investigation was undertaken. Here is a news item from yesterday. The six Baltimore police officers involved in the death of Freddie Gray while in police custody on April 19th, 2015 will not face federal charges due to insufficient evidence, the Justice Department announced Tuesday. The city did not pay this because of any crime. It was paid as a civil settlement. "The mayor and her staff are trying to do all they can to heal the wounds in the community, and this is a step in the right direction." "This settlement will give some people in the community at least some sense of justice." Normally as it was in the OJ situation the civil case is brought after the criminal case fails but in this case it was the reverse.

NOK subs

Here is a recent article. Sinpo-class submarine are North Korea's newest submarine class. Prior to 2015, there were only satellite images of these submarines. On May 9, 2015, the first Sinpo-class launched the first KN-11 ballistic missile under the supervision of Kim Jong Un himself. The test was successful. Since then, there have been five test firings of the KN-11, which can be nuclear armed. It is reported that North Korea is building five more Sinpo-class submarines. These ships are difficult to detect and can fire nuke missiles while submerged. Once they are located off the US coast there is no way to stop NOK without severe damage to the US mainland. While that is sufficient to get most people’s attention it is not the main threat which is the selling of nukes to terrorist groups. This way nuke attacks could take place and there would be no country to blame and thus no fear of retaliation. The old deterrent of MAD is no longer useful. When groups of terrorist acquire these weapons there will be no reason not to use them since they see death fighting certain people as the road to salvation.

Sanctions

During the almost 50 years of the cold war the world was held together by the concept of mutually assured destruction properly called MAD. We now have North Korea developing hydrogen bombs and rockets to go with them. The assumption is that MAD will once again work since NOK understands that using such weapons would mean their total destruction. A real and present danger still exist since NOK needs money and would not hesitate to sell these bombs to the highest bidder. We now have countries who believe that WW 3 would be the end of the world and many in these countries look forward to that day. In this MAD would be an incentive not a deterrent. If some Muslim country would attack Israel with an H-bomb then Israel would retaliate in kind and the Middle East would blow up and the rest of the world would be forced to take sides and on and on. The West must move forward on total sanctions against NOK which by definition means total sanctions against China. It is only when China’s fragile economic growth is threatened that they will enforce the sanctions against NOK.