Uranium

During the cold war the US was producing 50% of the world’s supply of uranium. When the USSR fell in 1990, Russian industries were catabolized and in one deal, Russia agreed to sell the US 500 tons of bomb grade uranium in a deal called Megatons to Megawatts. This was downgraded from 90% to 4% and sold at a huge discount. The US was producing enriched uranium at plants in Portsmouth and Paduca but they were going through the expensive enrichment process required by uranium. In the 90’s these plants were privatized and in 1998 a company called United States Enrichment Company (USEC) was created with an IPO that garnered $1.2 billion. The owners then decided to purchase cheap uranium from Russia and in 2001 Portsmouth was shut down and in 2010 Paduca closed. The $1.2 billion was used for USEC salaries and dividends. This is an example of the military industrial complex that Eisenhower warned about. Today the US produces only small amounts of uranium and is dependent on imports. As the world-wide demand for uranium increases, with the expected growth of nuclear power, the pressure will build to shift to thorium. Unlike uranium, thorium does not have to go through the very expensive enrichment process and is found all around the world in the waste products of other mining industries.

Bonus money

During the Covid, the government handed out money to the tune of $2 trillion and $190 billion of that went to school districts. The money was supposed to be used for one time cost programs but many districts hired new people and to pay for raises. They were warned not to use funds for ongoing expenses as the funds were only temporary. This combined with decreasing enrollment has caused budget problems for schools. This is not unusual but rather the norm when some groups come into a windfall. Back in 1998 the tobacco settlement awarded money to states to be used for smoking treatment programs but much of it was diverted to general fund obligations. Some of this for ongoing programs and when the money stopped the programs had to be financed from some other source. Once the government sets up a program it is difficult to stop.

Debt by state

One party control in a state creates different outcomes depending on the party. In Illinois the democrats hold every state wide office including governor. In addition, they have a super majority in the senate with 40-19 and a super majority in the house with 78-40 seats. The state is in debt $248 billion with at population of 12 million. Florida is controlled by republicans with a super majority in the house and senate. The state debt is $16 billion with a population of 23 million. Florida ranks 28th in property tax at .79% while Illinois is second at 2.07% The debt per person in Illinois is $20,000 and in Florida it is $700. Most of the Illinois’s debt is owed to pension plans for state employees and state teachers. The democratic party, both on a state level and federal level, promotes government debt financing. Illinois has 500 state employees per 10,000 population and Florida has 400. A similar situation can be seen by comparing Texas with California.

Subsidies

While Medicaid and public assistance programs get most of the publicity when it comes to government subsidies, other areas also receive benefits. $ 100 billion for transportation. $ 67 billion on housing assistance. $ 32 billion for the home mortgage interest deduction. $30 billion for the energy industry, $ 23 billion on CHIP, $ 9 billion in farm subsidies and one billion for oil depletion. Another $39 billion in subsidies were part of the Chips Act mostly for chip development. Of course, these are all dwarfed by the $900 billion spent on Medicaid. Seems many groups are benefiting from subsidies.

Shale

Because of the shale revolution, the US has one of the lowest energy cost in the world. While the average cost of electricity in Europe is 48 cents per kWh, the cost in the US is only 17 cents. The use of natural gas for power plants not only lowers the cost of electricity but also has reduced carbon emission to below 1990 levels even though the population has increased by 90 million people. If the US would go to natural gas for transportation the carbon emission would decline another 25%.

Teaching

Prior to 1980, any worker with a pension plan had a plan that paid a calculated amount at age 65 and was paid for by the employer. The amount received was based on a pension factor and years of service. The typical factor ranged from one to three percent. If a person started to work for the company at age 25 and stayed there until age 65 and their pension factor was 1.5%, they would receive 1.5 times 40 years or 60% of their final salary. As years passed, the pension cost to companies increased and became too burdensome so companies began to move away from pension plans and substituted with 401K plans which were part of the Revenue Act of 1978. Since an American company like GM had many more retirees than say, Toyota, the costs were higher. In 2005 hourly labor for GM employees was $69 and for Toyota $48 and most of this difference was to pay for legacy cost which means pension and healthcare. Today only union workers and public employees still have pension plans while the private sector has switched over to 401K plans. The pension factor for teachers varies by states but averages about 2%. Only about 25% of teachers make it a lifetime career but those retirement benefits are substantial. The average pay for a teacher, who is retiring today is about $80,000. If they started teaching at age 25 and retired at age 62 they would have 37 years experience and with a 2% pension factor would have a pension of $59,000. Their SS retirement benefit would be $18,000. At retirement not all SS is taxable and they no longer pay into SS or into their pension so they retire at more net income than they were earning. This is also true of union workers who had pensions and explains why companies moved away from pensions to 401K’s. Even with this comfortable retirement only one fourth of K-12 teachers make a it a life career. The job is just too stressful for most people.

Factory jobs

Most Americans agree that the wealth/income gap is too large and something should be done to reduce the gap. Some politicians like Elizabeth Warren immediately think of a government tax and in her case a wealth tax. Trump who is a businessman not a politician sees things differently. For example, in Trumps first term, Ford decided to close a large plant in Michigan and move to Mexico. Trump said you can do that but any product you make in your Mexico plant will pay a 25% tariff if shipped to the US. Ford decided to invest $600 million in the old plant and this saved 600 jobs. In this situation Trump put the interest of workers ahead of stockholders. In his second term he has expanded the use of tariffs to protect American jobs. The typical politician would not think of this approach and this is only one of many ways in which Trump differs from the normal politician. These differences cause enormous consternation among the establishment as often times they see this as a threat to their power.

Childcare

When you offer extended time off for new mother’s, employers will avoid hiring women of child bearing age. One way to offset this is to provide free childcare and one state is attempting this, the least likely state of New Mexico. New Mexico's economy is driven by oil and gas production, federal government spending, and tourism, but it also struggles with a high poverty rate and is considered one of the least economically diverse states. New Mexico ranks among the lowest states for per capita income and has a high poverty rate. The state ranks 50th in education and has the highest native American population at 12%. The estimated cost of this benefit is $600 million which is 6% of the budget. Other states will be watching to see what the actual expense will be.

Pirce pressures

While not much can be done to lower prices, some things can be done to offset the effect of higher prices. First, keep wages increasing faster than inflation which is currently the case. Keep transportation cost low which effects almost all products. Do this by keeping gasoline and diesel prices from rising by increasing the supply of oil which is now happening. Third, use government policy to lower regulations to encourage the growth of new manufacturing plants which use newer technology which increases productivity which puts downward pressure on prices. Have the Fed lower interest rates which helps lower the cost of money. The Fed has lowered rates by half percent these past few months and expecting another quarter drop this December. Increase labor force participation rate by reforming welfare and offering government aid for childcare. Raise taxes on the wealthy and lower taxes on corporations. Finally use programs to slow down the cost of healthcare which has risen by 121% since 2000 while inflation has only gone up by 86%. Growing the economy will bring in new revenues which the government can use to offset the cost of healthcare. The expanding economy from new investments, particularly foreign, will put upward pressure on inflation and proper use of AI can minimize that pressure.

Deflation

If you sit around with old men like I do on a daily basis you will hear remarks like, I bought my first house for $15,000 or I remember when cigarettes were 25 cents a pack or when gas cost 20 cents a gallon. What these men are pointing out is that prices always rise over time and that is a good thing. The Fed sets a target of 2% inflation. If prices fall that is deflation as Japan experience for what is called their lost 30 years which began in 1990. In 1995 their GDP was $5.5 trillion and by 2025 it had fallen to $4.2 trillion. When someone running for office tells you they are going to lower prices, beware. First off ask them how they are going to do that. What happened in Japan can happen in any free market society. Japan suffered the "lost decades" primarily due to the collapse of its asset bubble in the early 1990s, which led to a severe and prolonged recession, banking crisis, and deflationary spiral. The bursting of the bubble, caused by over-inflated stock and real estate prices, left businesses with massive debt. Lowering prices is now referred to by the euphemistic term affordability and this will confuse many voters. The price increases that happened in the Biden years will not go away unless deflation sets in. The goal at this point is to hold inflation to two percent and that can be done but it will not be easy as trillions come in from foreign investors. While this is bad, inflation caused by private investment is not nearly as harmful as inflation cause by government investment.

Cook county

The American Rescue Plan Act is a $1.9 trillion economic stimulus bill signed into law on Marach 11, 2012 to provide relief from the Covid pandemic. Once the largest publicly funded program in the nation receiving $42 million in federal funding from the American Rescue Plan Act, the Cook County Promise Guaranteed Income Pilot provided monthly payments of $500 to 3,250 households for two years, with no strings attached. If you do the math that is $39 million.

Middle class

America is facing a great opportunity for economic growth similar to what happened when WW 2 started. The country was in a depression and the manufacturing of war materials revived the economy. Unemployment declined from 25% to under 2% while wages doubled during the war years. Companies offered benefits like pensions and healthcare and after the war companies shifted from making weapons to making consumer goods. Union membership was 30% and each year wages increased faster than inflation. These were the Golden Years where America produced the largest middle class in history. The government helped with worker protection and oversight of both government and corporate power. Today as manufacturing jobs are coming home the situation is much like it was in 1945. New plants using the latest technology along with AI will offer high paying jobs with benefits and the government can help by reducing regulations and promoting unions. Schools should direct attention to preparing students right out of high school for manufacturing jobs. Foreign policy should be promoting United States not about making other countries into little Americas. The emphasis must return to manufacturing (making things) and away from financial (making money by moving money around). There will be a movement towards production plants and away from hedge funds. As students learn that future jobs require reading skills and wages increase the gaps in education and wealth will begin to narrow. Workers will once again be able to live a decent life much like they did in the 1950’s and the middle class will once again become part of the American Dream. Happy Thanksgiving.

Jails

It has long been known that recidivism rates among criminals is high but in recent years the immediate release caused by no cash bail has exaggerated the problem. While repeat offending crimes are highest among property offences the number of violent repeaters is 34% with two-thirds being rearrested within five years. This means that one-third of all murderers were previously arrested within the past five years. In August 2022, the NYPD announced that 716 individuals were responsible for 30 percent of the shootings since 2021. This is in a city with a population of 8.5 million. Another report said 10 men had been arrested a total of 485 times after bail reform laws were enacted. The question arises, what are jails for if not to incarcerate criminals. Jails with revolving doors are ineffective in lowering crime rates.

War

During the cold war NATO was balanced by the Warsaw Pact. The original 12 NATO countries included Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, The United Kingdom and United State. During the cold war four other countries were added, Greece and Turkey in 1952, West Germany in 1955 and Spain in 1982. After the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 the Warsaw Pact countries split away from Russia. These included Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Poland and Romania. This greatly concerned the new Russia as this was seen as a threat to their security. The new Russian leader Gorbachev was told by US Secretary of State James Baker in 1990 that NATO expansion was over. The specific wording is, there would be no extension of NATO’s jurisdiction for forces of NATO one inch to the east. In 1999 the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland were added. In 2004 Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia were added. In 2009 Albania and Croatia were added. Montenegro in 2017 and North Macedonia in 2020. Finally, Finland in 2023 and Sweden in 2024. On each of these occasions Russia once again voiced their concern about the threat to their safety. In 1997 Russian President Boris Yeltsin informed US President Bill Clinton that he viewed NATO expansion eastward as a mistake and that Russia would have to take steps to mitigate its negative consequences. Russia’s concerns became more pronounced over time, with significant objections raised in 2006 and 2008, particularly after Ukraine began actively pursuing NATO membership. In 2008 at the NATO Declaration of Bucharest Summit, Ukraine was welcomed into NATO. Once again Russia objected calling it a red line. Many believe that the road to war was set at that time.

Prices

The big issue for the upcoming election is prices and politicians are campaigning promising lower prices but how is not clearly explained. While the price of any individual product may go up and down overall prices go up. Inflation has averaged 3.5% since 1950. So, what can be done to buck the trend. Basic economics says that if you increase supply and/or decrease demand prices will fall. Increasing energy supply is now underway with coal, oil and natural gas. Interest rates have come down a half percent and scheduled for another quarter drop this December. New electric power plants are being built across the country but demand is increasing so there won’t be much change in the electric bill. New manufacturing facilities are being built across the country which means increases in productivity which will lower prices. If government tries to lower the effect of price increases by handing out benefits this will increase inflation and cause prices to rise. Anyone running for office with the promise to lower prices should be asked how they plan to do that.

EU

What happened to Europe. In 2000 the EU was second only to the US in GDP. The US was at $10 trillion and the EU at $7 trillion and today the EU sits at $18 trillion and the US at $29 trillion. The short story is that the EU self-destructed. The first mistake was Germany known as the industrial capital of Europe. They shut down coal and nuclear and went all in on wind and solar and planned to use natural gas from Russia during the transition. The Ukraine War stopped the gas from Russia and the price of energy quadrupled and plants had to shut down. Second, the population throughout Europe is on the decline. Too many old retirees and too few workers. Since the old people vote in high numbers politicians are fearful of cutting benefits so they raise taxes on the workers and young people start to leave and this makes the problem worse. When immigrants are suggested the people object. Third the absence of AI. While other countries will see innovation Europe is lagging behind in high tech industries. The big seven Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta and Tesla are all US companies. Europe depends on the US for high tech just as they depend on the US for defense. The EU is run out of Brussels and their main activity is setting up rules. There is an old saying that the US innovates, China replicates and the EU regulates. The EU is bogged down in regulations. Four. While 55% of Americans invest in the markets only 18% of EU residence do and EU companies do not have the money for investments. Most large investment firms in Europe have their money in the US including the large oil Norway fund financed by off shore oil. Don’t listen to the politicians, follow the money. Five. The EU became the leader in the new green deal and the result is that they have the highest energy prices in the world and they can no longer compete. Six. Europe’s dependence on the US for national defense is coming to an end. For 75 years they have used resources on social programs instead of military and those days are ending. There are many people in America that would like the US to follow in the EU footsteps.

Partners

People were surprised by the Trump/Mamdani meeting but there are ways to find common ground. Here is the platform of recently elected Virginia governor Spanberger 1. Invest in energy and environment 2. Modify the states Medicaid 3. Push congress to reform immigration 4. Education protect gay rights 5. No restrictions on abortion 6. Voting rights for criminals who have served their time 7. Increase housing by cutting regulations 8. Wants criminal justice reform and opposes defunding police Republicans could agree with 1,3, 4, 6, 7 and 8.

Affordability

The latest buzzword for the upcoming election is affordability. This is code for bringing prices down but this won’t happen using the democratic strategy. Their plan, as always, is to use tax money to provide benefits and this leads to inflation which causes prices to rise. Recall that Biden sent two trillion in checks to the American people and inflation went from under two percent to over nine percent. Many people will vote for this not because they see it a solution but because they will be voting against Trump. When you are for something, you disagree with, it becomes a classic case of cognitive dissidence. This happens when emotions overtake objectivity. People like bringing manufacturing jobs back home. They like fair trade which helps the US lower the trade deficit. They like selling military supplies to the EU instead of giving stuff to Ukraine. They like making the EU and Canada increase their defense spending from under two percent to five percent. This relieves US from the responsibility of their defense. They like getting Saudi Arabia to join forces with Israel to bring peace to Palestine. They like Trump working on peace in Ukraine. They like secure borders. They like trillions of investments coming in from foreign countries. What they don’t like is Trump.

Lies and damn lies

It is reported that Trump has told thousands of lies. Here is a list of the more important ones from Chat GPT The 2020 election was stolen Mexico will pay for the border wall Largest tax cut in history Ended family separation at the border Crime is rising Greatest economy in history Lies about the Mueller investigation False cures for Covid First raise for military in ten years Regards to Jan 6. Here is a quote from Hillary Clinton almost one year after the election Hillary Clinton, in an interview that aired Monday on NPR, said she “would not” rule out questioning the legitimacy of the 2016 election if Russian interference is deeper than currently known. Just for comparison here are few lies from Obama. He said 37 times, “if you like your healthcare plan, you can keep it” or “if you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor”. Not even a smidgen of corruption at the IRS Saying Benghazi was an attack over a video False claims about job creation, tax cuts and deficit reduction Excluding lobbyists from policy making jobs. With most presidents’ remarks like this are considered misinformation and exaggeration. People are more attuned with what presidents do as to what they say.

DEmocracy

According to Google AI here are the ways that Trump is a threat to democracy Challenging the 2020 election results which undermines faith in the voting system Challenging the peaceful transfer of power Politicizing the justice system Expanding executive power Attacking judges Insulting the press Encouraging violence using words Making mail in votes more difficult If you take away the January 6 case the rest of these things except mail votes seem to be part of every administration. Even the Jan 6 case can be compared to Hillary Clinton calling Trump and illegitimate president. Here is a quote from CNN nearly one year after the 2016 election. Hillary Clinton, in an interview that aired Monday on NPR, said she “would not” rule out questioning the legitimacy of the 2016 election if Russian interference is deeper than currently known. Presidents always want to expand executive power, fight with the supreme court and quiet complaints from the press.

Mamdani meeting

The Trump/Mamdani meeting caught the experts off guard because they still don’t understand Trump. He is results oriented. He understood that the new mayor could not raise taxes on the rich because the governor would not allow it. He knew that the city council would object to free buses, city owned grocery stores and everyone who has lived in NY for any period of time, knows that rent controls don’t work. Trump, understanding that Mamdani’s campaign promises were just promises, wants to see NY City succeed just like he wants America to succeed, joined forces with the mayor elect. He can see things like, giving the city federal money in return for putting career criminals in jail, as a good compromise. There are many such compromises on the table.

Nukes are coming

The world is finally waking up to the fact that wind and solar will not replace fossil fuels but nuclear can. The trend is toward small nuclear reactors and these are under construction in Argentina, China, Russia and four units in Darlington, Canada. Plans are submitted for units in Wyoming, Texas and Tennessee. The big tech companies are planning on using small reactors to power data centers. Companies like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta are investing in and partnering with developers to build small modular reactors (SMRs) to power their energy-intensive data centers. Current technology favors uranium as fuel but the future will be thorium. China is now operating a small thorium reactor and building a larger version. They plan to mass produce small reactors (300 megawatt) on an assembly line basis and sell these around the world. The whole process of going nuclear has been delayed by those who insist that wind and solar is best. If it had not been for this delay the nuclear industry would be years ahead of where it is now.

Future

Prior to the 1930’s there was little or no middle class in America. The few at the top with the Robber Barons at the very top and the masses at the bottom with no pensions, no healthcare, unsafe working conditions and low salaries. They were barely a step above slaves. During the 1930’s the government intervened and made many changes which offered benefits to the workers. During the war everyone was working and making good wages and after the war that continued with additional help from the government with the GI Bill, which offered the opportunity for home ownership with no money down and low interest rates. Millions of 8-to-10-thousand-dollar homes were built across the country and many also went to college and these changes grew the middle class. During the 50’s and 60’s wages increased faster than inflation and the great suburbian family became the norm. On a personal note, I purchased one of those houses in 1959. It cost $10,000 and was built in what used to be a corn field. I recall looking at the rotogravure section of the Sunday paper and realizing that everyone I knew could afford to buy most of the items advertised. Beginning in the middle 70’s things began to change. Corporations discovered they could increase profits by moving production overseas and when China entered the WTO in 2000 the job exodus accelerated. As manufacturing jobs disappeared in the rust belt, workers had to settle for lower paying positions. During this time interest rates were low and many families fell into the credit card trap to make ends meet. After 40 plus years of job loses the tide is turning and manufacturing is coming home. Private and foreign investment in the economy is rising rapidly and will bring with it high paying jobs and new more efficient facilities and AI will increase productivity. At this point the economic future looks promising but could be derailed by political infighting. The two parties could pull together and create a new great America but that is not likely.

Health insurance

Beware of government forecast when it comes to healthcare. In 1965 when Medicare started the estimate cost in thirty years was set at $9 billion dollars. If the cost had risen as inflation rose the cost in 1995 would have been $45 billion but in fact it was $90 billion. Between 2014 when Obamacare started to pay out until 2024 the inflation rate was 2.9% but Obamacare increased by 11.6%. Recall that Obamacare started collecting premiums in 2010 but did not start paying for treatments until 2014. The first ten years cost were estimated at $940 billion and this was kept below one trillion by only paying benefits for 6 of the first ten years. The government will use various methods to keep initial cost down, in order to pass the legislation but later the cost will rise much faster than predicted, knowing that once a benefit becomes an entitlement it is almost impossible to end.

Affordability

The key word in the press regarding the economy is affordability. The major complaint is that during the 10 months of Trump, prices have not come down. During the four years of the Biden administration, inflation average 5% with a high of 9% in 2022. During the Trump years inflation has been half that at 2.7% but that does not mean prices will come down, it only means prices will stop rising as fast. This difference is not clearly explained in the press giving the impression that some new administration will bring down prices. In the past the democratic economic plans have always been increasing taxes and using that money to provide benefits mostly in the form of public assistance programs. This will not lower prices but will make it easier for low-income groups to get by. It is the old story of giving a man a fish instead of teaching him how to fish with a good paying job.

Home shoring

There is not much news reporting on US companies investing in the US but searching can reveal new facilities and expanding of existing plants Major US companies are investing in domestic production of home electronics which are devices used for entertainment, communication, recreation and household tasks Companies like GE and Whirlpool are investing in domestic appliance production to expand manufacturing, create jobs, and modernize their plants. This includes products like washers and dryers, air conditioners and water heaters. Major foreign investments in autos and chips total in the billions. The country is experiencing the revitalization of manufacturing. This is prompted by shorter supply chains, lower regulations, increased transportation cost and tariffs. The US with 5% of the world’s population consumes 30% of the consumer goods. Companies invest in the US because that is where their customers live. The US 50% tariffs on aluminum and steel have increased the cost of appliances to where products made in the US are price competitive. Forty years ago, 80% of the items Americans bought were made by U.S. producers. Today, U.S. manufacturers make only about 11% of American-bought goods. This is why the middle-income workers wages have stagnated while corporate profits have exploded, both of which have contributed to the wealth and income gap. It is time to reveres this process and bring manufacturing jobs back home.

Peace plan

Trump proposed peace plan for Ukraine. Immediate cease fire Ukraine to give up Crimea and the Donbas region Ukraine to cap its military at 600,000 Ukraine will not enter NATO Ukraine security would be backed by NATO forces Ukraine will hold elections within 100 days $100 billion of frozen Russian assets plus $100 billion from NATO will rebuild Ukraine Lifting sanctions on Russia Civilian detainees including children would be returned Bar Russia from blocking Ukraine trade routes A group headed by Turmp will oversee the implementation So far $360 has been spent by the allies on the war. It is estimated that it will cost $500 billion to rebuild the country.

Investments

One of the major differences between the Trump and Biden economic plans can best be seen by examining the two major accomplishments in the Biden administration. The CHIPS Act is a U.S. law passed in August 2022 that provides incentives to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing and research. It allocates approximately $52.7 billion in subsidies and tax credits for chip production and invests over $200 billion in research for areas like AI, quantum computing, and robotics Under Trump private companies like Amazon, Meta and Microsoft are investing over one trillion dollars. The $1.2 trillion dollar infrastructure bill passed in November 2021 has bogged down because Spending from the infrastructure bill is slow due to a combination of factors including inflation, high costs for labor and materials, and complex regulatory hurdles like zoning and environmental reviews As of early 2025, the Biden administration has announced over $695 billion in funding from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law for more than 74,000 projects. However, the amount actually spent is significantly less. Some reports indicate that only about $125 billion to $186 billion has been spent. Trump has solicited many trillions from foreign countries to be invested in the US. When the government spends money on the economy it creates inflation but not so when foreign governments invest. It is the difference between government and private money.

Mexico

Trump has repeatedly offered Mexico President Sheinbaum help in bringing down the cartels but she refused saying she did not need any help. Trump predicted that unless he helps the problem will get worse. This past week his prediction came true. Violent demonstrations erupted across Mexico over the weekend, leaving 100 police officers hurt in the clashes with protesters. The feelings among the Mexican people have changed from anger at the cartels for the drug violence to anger toward the government for not stopping the cartels. The tipping point came with the November 1st murder of the young popular mayor Carlos Manzo. He was shot and killed during a public celebration while with his family. He had repeatedly accused the federal government from failing to act against organized crime. The closing of the US border and the reduction of drug traffic is helping the Mexican government in their fight against the cartels but will it be enough to turn the tide. Will President Sheinbaum ask for help or as some believe, she is getting kickbacks from the cartels.

Loyalty

Trump’s cabinet members have shown strong loyalty and a willingness to stand together but will this change in late 2027 when the campaign for the 2028 election gets underway.

Insurance

The cost of Obamacare is increasing much faster than inflation. The news suggests the reason is dropping the subsidies provided during Covid but there are other reasons. First is the guaranteed coverage regardless of preexisting conditions. This means the sick and older people will sign up while healthy younger people will not. When you can wait to get health insurance after you get sick this defeats the purpose of insurance which is based on risk sharing. This flaw was recognized early on and those who refused to sign up had to pay a penalty called the individual mandate but this was later discontinued. Second is the community rating rule which forbids charging older people more than younger people. Insurance by its very nature, is based on mortality and morbidity and Obamacare negates this principal. Third is mandated coverage. Obamacare must cover certain so-called essential benefits. This means that a young single man must have coverage for child birth. When examined closely it seems that this is not health insurance but just a government benefit. It is like buying life insurance after you have a serious illness or buying home owners insurance after a fire. Insurance by definition is based on a form of discrimination legally defined as separating people into different risk pools based on their risk profiles to set premiums. The cost of a same size life insurance policy at age 20 is $12 per month and at age 40 it is $34 per month. The cost for women is less than for men. A young person can develop a serious health problem and sign up for Obamacare and he is covered on the first of the next month. Even Medicare requires that people sign up in advance.

Seattle

While the NY City mayoral race got all the attention, another democratic socialist Katie Wilson was elected mayor of Seattle. She has been active in social issues for the past ten years and decided to run for office. She headed campaigns to raise the minimum wage and was the co-architect of the payroll expense tax which taxed large companies to pay for public housing. It was set at 2% of company payroll. Later an additional 5% tax was added. She campaigned for free and subsidized bus passes for low-income groups. She added abolishing the police to later cutting the police force by 50% and later again to working with the department. She still maintains that many 911 calls can be handled by unarmed civilian responders. She tried to impose a sur tax on upper income people but the courts shut that down. She co-founded the Seattle Transit Riders Union where she was paid $72,000 per year. As mayor she will receive $230,000 per year. She purports to be a woman of the people as she and her husband with their daughter live in a small apartment and they to not drive but prefer public transportation. Her basic political philosophy is to tax the rich and use the money for public assistance programs. When the payroll tax was introduced, Amazon moved thousands of jobs to nearby Bellevue to avoid the tax. The tax generated $360 million but fell short of estimates by $47million and caused the city to scramble to balance the budget. One of her first priorities is to lift the one percent maximum on property tax to get income to pay for other social programs.

Energy

With the onset of the war in Ukraine, the world was suddenly aware that any country who depended on another country for their energy was in a precarious position. When Europe lost their natural gas supply from Russia their energy cost quadrupled as they rushed to build natural gas import facilities. If any country wants to guarantee their energy independence the only path is nuclear and thus small nuclear reactors are now the rage in many places around the globe. Nuclear provides almost unlimited power without the need to import materials and is carbon free. As countries remove the politics from their energy policy, nuclear becomes the common-sense solution.

SNAP

As the country gets back to normal after the shut down the news about SNAP has died down. The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program provides monthly benefits averaging about $190 per person to about 42 million people nationwide. Prior to the new bill able-bodied adults without children between ages 18 and 54 had to work 80 hours per month and certain groups were exempt, including veterans, homeless and youth aging out of foster care. After the new bill the age requirements were expanded to 18 to 64, the exempted groups were eliminated, the 80 hour per month work requirement was retained and adults with children over 14 were included. Not included in SNAP stats are 7 million able-bodied single men between the ages of 18 to 54 who could work but choose not to work. There are many millions of jobs open right now where the main qualification is showing up on time and these employers cannot find help.

Solar credits

There is a 30% tax credit on the cost of solar panels installed on a personal residence. This credit only applies to taxes that are owed. About half of all taxpayers do not pay tax so they get nothing from this plan. If you owe $9,000 in taxes you can install solar panels costing $30,000 and pay zero tax. You can sell back any excess electricity to the power company which reduces their profits. In areas that get lots of sun this means the power companies will raise the rates to compensate for this loss. In straight talk this means that low-income people will be subsidizing the wealthy people. This is another example of the unintended consequences of good intentions.

Gaza deal

The UN Security Council voted to approve the US drafted resolution on a Gaza peace plan 13 for and none against with Russia and China abstaining. This is a 20-point plan proposed by Trump which will be in three parts. Humanitarian aid, rubble removal and restoration of basic services over 6 to 12 months Temporary housing, infrastructure repair and reactivating the banking system. 2 years Large scale construction and economic development including tourism over many years The whole project will take decades and cost $60 billion and be paid for by European countries along with oil rich Arabs and the US. The project will be led by the Palestinian Authority and United Nations.

Prices

The news is filled with stories about people who want prices to come down but they are facing an uphill battle. The Consumer Price Index (CPR), is based on the price of a fixed market basket of goods and services in the current year as compared to past years. In 1950 it was $23 and today it is $324 for an average annual increase of 3.5%. What one dollar would buy in 1950 cost $13 today. Since Trump took office, the index has been about 3%. One way to lower prices on particular items is to increase supply like what has been done with oil and natural gas but this will only be effective over a short period and in time the price will begin to rise. Another way to lower prices is to lower the interest rates which will allow home mortgages at lower rates. Since Trump took office in his second term the fed rate has declined from 4.5% to 4.0%. Inflation is holding at 2.7% and this will allow the fed to make additional reductions. When a politician runs on the promise of lowering prices he should be questioned as to how he plans to do that. When Trump campaigned saying he would lower prices that was foolish. He should have said he would slow the rise in prices by tackling inflation. Anyone who has lived over the past 75 years understands that overall prices do not come down.

Deficit reduction

There is always much discussion on how to balance the budget and here are four options for raising revenue. 1. Eliminate itemized deductions and apply standard deduction to everyone. Currently 90% use the standard deduction. This would bring in $340 billion. 2. Impose a new payroll tax of 2%. This would bring in $250 billion. Current tax is 6.2% 3. Five percent value added tax. Brings in $300 billion per year. 4. Impose a 2% surtax on all adjusted gross income above $100,000. Brings in $340 billion Three ways to reduce mandatory spending. 1. Establish a uniform SS benefit at 150% of poverty level (about $2,000 per month). This saves $283 billion. 2. Cap Medicaid spending at present level and save $459 billion 3. Adjustments to Medicare Advantage plans and save $110 billion These all total $2.1 trillion which would offset this years $1.7 trillion deficit. The problem is that these savings would not be applied to the deficit but used for new programs. Just like Trump is considering the tariff money to refund $2,000 to lower income people instead of applying it to the deficit. There are no votes to be gained from lowering the deficit.

Healthcare

The democrats are pushing to have healthcare be a major issue in the midterm election and with good reason. The republican plan is to expand health savings accounts, Medicare and Medicaid cuts, market competition and a focus on life style and prevention. When the average voter hears that it sounds like blah, blah, blah. Now comes the democratic plan in one simple sentence. The government will pay for your healthcare. The response from the voter is simple. Where do I sign.

CR

The US budget process. The president sends a budget to the congress and they have 12 sub committees that approve 12 appropriation bills and they are sent to the president for his signature. This is supposed to be in the president’s desk before Oct 1st. Since the current federal budget process was established in 1977, Congress has only passed all the required appropriations bills to fund the government by the October 1 deadline and sent them to the President on time four times: The other times the government stayed open by-passing continuing resolutions (CR’s). That is the reason the government shut down since they did not pass the CR. By opening the government, the congress agrees to fund the government until January 1st at which time they will face another potential shut down. The obvious solution is to send a budget to the president for the entire year by Oct 1st which is what the law requires.

Newsom energy

Governor Newsom of California, a potential presidential candidate, attended the Climate conference in Brazil and criticized Trump for not showing up. Trump believes that the New Green deal is a scam and sees nuclear power as the future. Newsom, whose state is firmly committed to wind and solar, believes that the solution to climate change is wind and solar. Which direction the country goes may well be determined by the next presidential election when energy production will be a major issue.

AOC

As the democratic party reorganizes, the name of Alexandria Ocasio Cortez is mentioned as possible presidential candidate. It may seem unlikely that a 36-year-old with no business experience and only 6 years as a congressional representative could be president but having just witnessed a 34-year-old with 4 years’ experience as a state representative become mayor of NY City, anything can happen. The party is looking for new young and ambitious people to take up the banner.

Business

There are 183 million Americans working and 22.7 million work for the federal, state and local governments which represents 14% of the population. This percentage has not changed much over the years. Small businesses create over half of all new jobs and this is where economic growth can best be seen. Lower tax rates and tax incentives along with fewer regulations promote new and existing business. In general, less government encourages new business while more government discourages. Government responsibility is to prevent fraud and protect public safety especially regarding large corporations. In the free market system, individual entrepreneurs like Bill Gates, Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos and Steve Jobs, grow into big companies and create new industries and millions of jobs. When government agencies like the EPA are left unchecked, they tend to create regulations that make it difficult for business. The federal government is helping grow the economy by maximizing energy production, lowering regulations, fairer tariffs and bringing manufacturing jobs back home. Voters should be encouraged to elect leaders who know how to use government to create new business.

Good old days

One of the favorite topics for old men is to compare the prices today with prices when they were kids. They all remember five gallons of gas for a buck. The point is that prices have been rising since the end of WW 2. The government can make some changes that will slow the price increase but to have a decrease in overall prices has not happened since the great depression. Inflation has averaged 3.5% since 1950 and the trick is to have wages increase faster. This has been done in the past and can happen again. Since 1950 wages have increased by 4.5%. While the average looks good the increases have been skewed toward the rich with the middle class averaging less than one percent in the past 50 years. This was the result of sending manufacturing jobs over seas but that has been changed and those jobs are coming home

High school

As I did my daily scan through the news there was no mention of Veterans Day. That is not the case in the high schools in this area. They have special guest at a ceremony in the gym which culminates with the orchestra and vocal group playing and singing The Battle Hymn of the Republic in an emotional finale. The talents of these musicians and singers are amazing and makes one proud to be an American. This is the country’s most important holiday since without this one there would be no country

Processing rare earths

In 1973 the world was awakened to the fact that one country could not be allowed to control the world by restricting the supply of oil. This resulted in fracking and liquid natural gas and the US became energy independent. The US is now facing a similar situation but this time it is rare earths. Following the better late than never strategy the US is actively gearing up its rare earth industry, focusing on building a domestic supply chain for mining, processing, and manufacturing to reduce reliance on China. Recent government investments, partnerships with private companies, and the establishment of strategic stockpiles are key components of this effort. While mining rare earths is a dirty business, the processing is even more dirty. The US is not currently processing but plans for plants are underway in California, Colorado, Utah and New Hampshire. It is now a race to catch up before China decides to stop exporting rare earths. The US is behind in rare earths for the same reason it is behind in nuclear development. Environmentalist fear and government regulations. It appears that the American people are not concerned about contaminating other countries where environmental laws and worker safety are laxed even to the point of using child labor. It may not seem right to blame the American people but it is the US consumer who benefits from these metals. One example is iridium a metal which allows touch screen. It is too much trouble for people to use up and down arrows.

Gas

The US is being criticized for not attending the UN Climate Change Conference in Brazil but leaders of the three largest polluters, US, China and India are not attending. China is responsible for 33% of CO2 emissions while the US comes in second at 12% and India third at 8%. Since 2005 US CO2 emissions have declined by 20% primarily by replacing coal fired power plants with natural gas. Similar reductions could be made by switching transportation from gasoline and diesel to natural gas. The US has used natural gas in trucks and buses for years. Many political leaders still believe that wind and solar can replace fossil fuels but the answer is using natural gas on the way to nuclear.

He caved

Many commentators suggest that if a politicians would just be willing to change their minds on certain issues, they would be lauded as free thinkers who put the country ahead of party but that is not the way things work out. Those who change, admit they were wrong, are flip floppers or the most pejoratively, they caved. They lack principal and are willing to go whichever way the wind blows and just pandering for votes. Often times they just say they got the best deal and close out the issue. Just say you won and come home.

Energy

The natural long-term plan to zero carbon is straight forward and completely doable with today’s technology, if politics would get out of the way. Here is the path. All new data centers will build their own power plants, so as not to interfere with the power to the local citizens. This also eliminates the need for long power lines. Transportation of cars, buses and small trucks should switch over to natural gas. Small modular reactors (SMR’s) should be built to slowly replace natural gas as the new power source. Molten salt thorium reactors should replace SMR’s Thorium reactors to be used for industry both heating and powering Thorium reactors used to create hydrogen by electrolysis of water and cars, buses and trucks to switch from natural gas to hydrogen. Thorium reactors to produce diesel and jet fuel by using CO2 from the air to be returned to the air when burned for zero net carbon Thorium reactors to desalt sea water to grow crops in the desert. Finally, thorium reactors will be replaced with fusion the ultimate energy source. Required technology not yet available.

ACA

During Covid the congress approved enhanced payments to those on ACA also known as Obamacare. These payments were scheduled to end this year but the democrats will not vote to open the government unless these enhanced payments are extended. The payments cost the government $35 billion per year and once benefits are in force, they are difficult to remove. This is why public assistance programs often start as temporary and convert to permanent. This is what happened to the tax cuts in Trumps beautiful new bill. They were set to end this year but were extended. The democrats fought against this just as the republicans are fighting against the ACA extension. This enhancement brought in 24 million new patients to the ACA bringing the current total to 45 million and the extra new members cost the government $35 billion per year. The republicans want to argue the extension after the government reopens but the democrats fear the republicans will not bring it up before the congress and it will die. More than 50% receive some assistance with 5 million paying no monthly premium and no annual deductible. If the extension is not approved then the average monthly premium will increase from $74 to $132. The annual deductible is $2,789 and will not change. The monthly premium is not included in the annual deductible. Most articles discuss the monthly premium but avoid the annual deductible which is much more of a burden. The average ACA recipient must pay out of pocket over $4,000 per year before they are covered.

Education K-12

It is often said that government agencies, especially state and local groups tend to grow and expend if left to their own devises and this is true of education. There are 3.2 million teachers in K-12 schools in the US and seven million staff. In 1950 there were 1.1 million teachers in K-12 along with 400,000 staff. There were 26 students per teacher in 1950. The average cost per living since 1950 has been 3.5% and the cost of K-12 has increased by 6%. Test scores have remained stagnate while the gap between Black and White student has widened. These numbers are different for suburbian schools where tax dollars are more available District 196 in the southeast burgs of Minneapolis has 27,679 students, 2,100 teachers and 4,000 staff. With a budget of $500 million this is over $18,000 per student and 13 students per teacher. The two biggest problems facing the country today are the gaps in income and education. Perhaps using AI to offered private tutors for all students can help.

German wind and solar

Now that Germany has changed its constitution so it can go into debt, they will borrow $500 billion through the sale of bonds to finance an infrastructure bill. Of that, $100 billion will be for wind and solar. The greens in Germany are so powerful they have yet to understand that nuclear is the solution to zero carbon. Germany continues to build solar panels even though they don’t have much sun. Northern European countries like Germany get 1,800 hours of sun per year while Southern European countries like Spain get 2,900 hours. Europe’s power prices soared to record levels but it wasn’t war that caused this but the dark, windless weather that is all to common during the winter. The power of the greens reached its peak in 2021 and has been declining slowly but is still able to direct spending toward wind and solar. The US has recognized the potential for nuclear and is moving in that direction.

Socialism or not

As the country watches the NY City election, many wonder how socialism gained such popularity. It started when many fair-minded compassionate people realized that Blacks were treated differently based on the countries big sin of slavery. This thinking was reinforced with the Jim Crow laws in mid-20th century and things like red lining. Minorities were seen as victims and the general society as victimizers. This led to a type of colonialism within the country in the form of oppressor and oppressed. Minorities became the victims and the oppressed and Whites became the victimizers and oppressors. Early steps to reconcile these differences, resulted in programs like affirmative action where job preferences were based on skin color. Across the nation statues were knocked down while streets and buildings were renamed. Free market capitalism added to this differentiation because it creates winners and losers and the Whites were the winners. Blacks and Hispanics convicted of felons were no longer seen as criminals but victims of an unfair society. Citizens were allowed to break into stores and steal goods with impunity. No cash bail and local district attorneys who refused to prosecute became the norm in big cities. Many now see the solution is to revamped the entire systems by replacing merit-based capitalism with equity, by replacing equal opportunity with equal results and the latest action is the election of a democratic socialist in NY City. In today’s United States there are people who do not like the country as it is and what to make major changes. Some even profess to hate America seeing only the country they live in but not comparing to other countries and you have signs like Queers for Palestine. One area that is immune from these pressures is sports where minorities have risen to the top. Even there, things are not all well and many see the rich in corporate boxes flashing thumbs up and down on the gladiators on the field who are busting their heads to entertain the elites. Another group that is gaining equality by merit (hard work) is women, who have taken advantage of education. Last year 120,000 women and 80,000 men received doctoral degrees. The best way to slow down the push toward socialism is to close the wealth and education gaps.

Economic growth

Here is a rather rough, simplified, somewhat biased view of the country at this time. Certain people see the future through the optimistic lens of innovators using private entrepreneurship and small businesses to develop new industries creating new jobs and new economic growth. They are the profit seekers, who revel in the self-satisfaction of having built up a successful enterprise. There is another group who sees themselves as compassionate care givers, who want to transfer the wealth created by the first group to the needy, in the form of public assistance programs. They are the champions of the poor and downtrodden, who have been disadvantage by past real or perceived prejudice. This group believes they have the high moral ground and have a clear conscience knowing they are truly their brother’s keeper. The second group is dependent on the success of the first group for survival. The first group needs government help to use regulations to both protect the public and promote business development while the second group needs government to use taxes to close the income gap. When these two operate in balance the country can grow and still maintain a safety net for those who cannot make it on their own,

Dow SMR

The new interest in small modular reactors (SMR’s) is not limited to the big social media companies as Dow Chemical starts construction on four SMR’s at its Seadrift complex in Texas. Each will have 80 MW for a total output of 320 MW’s. Other companies like Nucor and Constellation Energy, both which need electric power 24/7 and want zero carbon are active. The Dow unit is using TRISO as fuel. These are small pellets containing uranium wrapped in ceramic and graphite. This gives the unit the walk away shut down safety and lowers waste product production. The pellets are added continuously and when power shuts down the addition of fuel stops and the reactor shuts down. These reactors do not require shut down to add new fuel and thus run 24/7. There are currently 80 companies working on developing SMR’s.

AI long term

As the country progresses through the AI revolution it will change most jobs, eliminate some jobs and create new jobs. One example is the radiologist. Some years ago, it was predicted that computers could read x-rays faster and more accurately than people and these jobs were considered to be in jeopardy. What happened was that as x-ray machines became more efficient, they caused more x-rays to be used which led to better diagnosis as doctors used the computer for initial interpretation which gave them more time to evaluate in more detail. The result has been an increase in health benefits and the need for more radiologist. Automation often times means more of something not less. The point being, that at this time the long-term consequences of AI, are yet to be determined.

Norway tax

When Mayor Mamdani of New York City says he will put a 2% tax on all income over one million dollars that is the equivalent of a wealth tax even though it is on income. Norway has a wealth tax but it is under pressure in this year’s election. It is 1.0% of all income over $2 million and raises $2.4 billion annually. 720,000 pay the wealth tax but most are small amounts with about 3,000 who have income over $10 million. More than 30 billionaires and millionaires have left the country. In 2022 Norway raised the wealth tax to 1.1% and expected to gain $146 million but ended up losing $594 million in revenue because wealthy people left the country. The labor-controlled government recently voted to keep the wealth tax even though more wealthy people are destined to leave the country. While this seems counter intuitive the explanation is that even though it loses money, it sounds good. This will likely change if more rich people leave.

Ten points

What are ten points in US foreign policy 1. Bringing manufacturing jobs back home 2. Reciprocal tariffs 3. Reducing dependency of critical materials like pharmaceuticals 4. Getting Europe and Canada to pay for their own defense 5. Reducing contributions to the UN and NATO 6. Using Abraham Accords to get Saudi Arabia to rebuild Palestine 7. Finding a peaceful settlement to the Ukraine War 8. Free and fair trade 9. Not trying to convert other countries into America 10. Stop the influx of drug What are ten points in US domestic policy 1. Securing the border 2. Recognizing that wind and solar cannot replace fossil fuels but nuclear can 3. Becoming energy independent 4. Finding 300,000 missing migrant children 5. Improving education using AI as individual tutors 6. Reducing regulations to create new jobs 7. Keeping taxes low 8. Using tax incentives to promote innovation 9. Maintaining a strong national defense 10. Deporting criminal migrants What are ten points of culture 1. What are ten cultural points 2. Gender surgery on minors 3. Schools keeping secrets from parents 4. Men dresses as women dancing in grade schools 5. Changing pronouns, them and they instead of he and she 6. Paper straws and grocery bags. 7. Closing schools for Covid 8. DEI and CRT 9. Hotels for migrants while citizens live on the streets 10. Overwhelming schools and clinics with illegal migrants

Mamdani

The past 50 years of globalization has created the largest income and wealth gap in history and no where is this more evident than New York City. New York has the greatest disparities in income of any major U.S. city, with the top 1 percent of the population getting 44 percent of the income in the city. That New York City has extreme wealth and extreme poverty, and lots of both, seems like a law of nature, older than the subway or the Brooklyn Bridge. When this happens, it is only a matter of time before some charismatic populist comes along with a promise to redistribute the wealth and Zohran Mamdani, the newly elected mayor of New York is just such a person. He is 34 years old and has been a state representative for 5 years. He has no business experience and will be responsible for the $112 billion dollar city budget. How was he able to achieve this is based on the old proven policy of taking from the rich and giving to the not rich. His platform is free city buses, rent freeze, free child care, increase minimum wage, city owned grocery stores and affordable housing. This will be paid for by raising $9 billion in new income taxes on the wealthy and business. This is the classic democratic policy which is pejoratively referred to as tax and spend. He also has promised to set aside $65 million for government funded gender surgeries, using mental health workers to respond to some police calls, reduce the jail population by closing Rikers Island, decriminalizing prostitution and certain misdemeanors, reforming the police department by reducing its scope and cutting overtime and provide housing for migrants. New York City has enough rich people so he can continue these policies for many years but in time, as is always the case with redistribution, you eventually run out of money.

Amazon

Many marveled at the speed with which Elon Musk built his latest data center in Memphis but not to be out done, Amazon recently completed a new center in Indiana in thirteen months from start to finish. Amazon has opened a data center on 1,200 acres of land in Indiana that’s dedicated to training and running models from Anthropic. They will not be using Nvidia chips like most other data centers. The first 7 buildings are completed and operational. The buildings are over 200,000 sq ft and there will be 23 more buildings in the next two years. The complex will use 2.2 GW.s of energy, the equivalent of two large nuclear powered plants. This is as much power as half the people in the state use. The power will come from Indiana- Michigan power company. Amazon is a major customer and is paying for the necessary substations to be built on-site, which helps the utility modernize the power grid to handle the increased load. These will be natural gas plants. Amazon will pay 80% of the cost of upgrades and sign a 12-year contract for usage. Amazon is also paying to upgrade the water treatment plant, the waste water plant and roads and highways leading into and away from the project. The state has offered a 50% real property tax abatement for 10 years and the remaining 50% will be enough to offset the additional cost the city will face in local services. On the surface this looks like a win-win for the state and Amazon.

Revolving door

Eisenhower warned against the power of the military-industrial complex and when Obama took office he declared and end to the revolving door between people who worked in the defense department and the defense industry. He said that anyone working for him would have to wait two years after leaving government before working in private industry. After he was elected and before he was inaugurated, he broke his rule. Willian Lynn who was a lobbyist for Raytheon and he had previously worked in the Clinton defense department where he was in charge of budgets and acquisitions before he took his job at Raytheon. Obama hired Lynn and three years later he left to work to return to private industry where he worked as a CEO making $10 million per year. This sort of thing happens on a regular basis in all administrations. A GAO report in 2021 showed that 28 of the 32 generals and admirals that retired went to work in private industry as lobbyist or consultants.

Future power

Large nuclear power plants (one gigawatt) cost about $4 billion outside the US and about twice that in the US. Much of this is regulatory and is currently being addressed as nuclear makes a comeback. The cost of subsidies for wind and solar 2010–2023: Cumulative costs for solar and wind subsidies were $76 billion and $65 billion, respectively Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) projections: The 10-year cost of wind and solar tax credits is projected to be around $421 billion between 2025 and 2034 Add to that the subsidies for EV’s Projections for the total cost of energy/clean vehicle subsidies under these acts range from an estimated $391 billion over 10 years (per the CBO) to up to $1.2 trillion (per Goldman Sachs' 2023 projection) This does not include the environmental cost of mining, processing and disposal of the materials needed to make windmills, solar panels and EV’s. Then the human cost of boys working in cobalt mines in Africa, Indians in Peru watching their land being destroyed by lithium mining and ground water contamination in China mining rare earths. Moving away from fossil fuels is necessary to reduce carbon but also because these materials will run out. Scientist realize more each day that nuclear power is the answer.

Rent of buy

Many young couples are comparing buying a home vs renting a home. The average home in Hastings cost $330,000 and is 2,100 sq ft in size. For a conventional loan this means 3% down or $9,900. The monthly payment on a 7%, 25-year loan is $2,263 for principal and interest. Include $2,600 for property tax, $1,500 for home owners’ insurance and $140 for mortgage protection insurance for a total monthly payment of $2,744. The average rent for a three-bedroom home is $2,100. For a home owner the cost of interest, taxes and insurance is deductible and saves about 20% in federal and state income tax. This brings the monthly net payment down from $2,744 to $2,195. At the end of the first year the house has gone up in value by 3% which is $9,900 in unrealized profit. This offsets the down payment. Most young people should save for a down payment as the long-term benefit increases as the property value increases. Over time the value of housing has increased 3% per year. The law allows gift money to be used as down payment. The question for grandparents is, would you rather give your grandchild $10,000 for a down payment on a home while you’re living or give them $10,000 in your will after your dead.

Nuclear is coming

The government announced this week plans to invest $80 billion along with $100 billion from Japan to build Westinghouse nuclear reactors. This will include large one-gigawatt reactors plus small modular reactors. Two AP1000 reactors were deployed and are now operating in Waynesville, GA. The plants produce 4.5 gigawatts. The plans include building SMR the AP300. There will be a total of 10 large reactors and a number o small modular reactors to be under construction by 2030. The reactors will use small uranium pellets as fuel. The US +government will take a 20% ownership in the project meaning that approvals will be fast tracked. The projects could be completed in five years meaning sometime in the 2030’s. While this is going on private companies are setting up to build small reactors to power data centers. Nuclear is on the way to replacing fossil fuels and the goal of carbon free by 2050 may be possible.

Carbon free

England set a goal of being carbon free by 2050 and the result is the country who started the industrial revolution is de industrializing. The main reason is the high cost of energy. For hundreds of years England maintained its industrial position by using coal but that ended with climate change. Today the price of electricity in England is 38 cents per kWh while in the US the cost is 18 cents or less than half. In England the cost of natural gas is $49 per 1000 cubic feet and in the US the cost is $25. The UK was the first country to industrialize, but also one of the first to deindustrialize. UK manufacturing as a share of GDP has fallen from 30% in 1970 to 8% in 2024 The US was headed in this direction up until ten years ago when the country realized that wind and solar could not replace fossil fuels. The next step is to understand that nuclear is the answer. The same thing is going on in other European countries like Germany.