Recessions

News people who were not alive in the 1970’s see the world differently. There are many stories about the price of oil hitting $100 per barrel but they seem to have forgotten the oil embargo of 1973. It was in response to the surprise attack by Egypt and Syria against Israel known as the Yom Kipper War. The oil exporting countries in the Middle East stopped sending oil to the West and the price of oil quadrupled and there were long lines at the gas stations. During the 2008 mortgage crisis the price of oil surged to an all time high of $147 per barrel. During the 2008 recession the press the press referred to it as the Great Recession and said it was the worse since the great depression. While unemployment peaked at 10%, interest rates topped out at 7% and inflation at 5.5%. In the 1982 recession the unemployment also peaked at 10% but the interest rates hit 21% and inflation was 13%.

New ways

After WW 2 and picking up steam in the 1960’s, Neoliberalism, which emphasizes free market capitalism, deregulation and reduced government intervention moved forward to facilitate globalization which was the integration of world economies by opening up world markets and allowing capital to flow across borders. The global integration of trade, finance and telecommunications created strong investor protections and established the World Trade Organization (WTO). This allowed multinational corporations to operate globally with minimal state interference and greatly expanded supply chains. National governments shifted from protecting local industries to competing for foreign investments. The end result was twofold. First it moved a billion people out of poverty mostly in Asia and second it moved western manufacturing jobs to Asia. This led to two major adjustments. First wages for working people in the West and in particular the US Midwest stagnated for 50 years and second profits for large corporations and their stockholders exploded. This led to the widening of the wealth gap which is plaguing the US to this day. Trump, before he even entered politics, saw this as a threat to the middle-income groups and saw China as the number one protagonist. He saw how corporate greed and China’s manipulation of currency worked together to hurt the American worker. To attempt to challenge this he had to go up against the establishment, the very people who had profited from the system, and they responded by demonizing him. He was a threat to democracy or at least their way of doing business. He was well aware of the rebuke he would receive if he threatened the status quo. He upset both political parties along with the world’s way of doing business and these groups are not happy. They will fight to the end to maintain the old ways. Trumps first steps will be to bring manufacturing jobs back home and the take on the unfair trade practices while forcing other countries to start paying more for their own defense and forcing others to pay their fair share of international groups like the UN and NATO.

Platner

The nomination of Graham Platner, the Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate in Maine, will allow the country to move away from personality and on to policy. He supports universal health care along with universal child care. He proposes a billionaire minimum tax and a windfall profits tax on oil companies. He proposes eliminating the federal gas tax. He wants federal funding for housing and raising the minimum wage. He supports the abolishing of ICE and replacing that with a legal pathway to citizenship for migrants. Most middle- and lower-income people would be happy with these policies and that should be enough voters to get him elected.

Iran War

The U.S. House of Representatives most recently passed a war powers resolution directing the President to end hostilities and withdraw military forces from Iran. Under the 1973 War Powers Act, the President can introduce U.S. Armed Forces into hostilities for up to 60 days without congressional authorization. One of the attacks that warranted a lot of attention was the accidental bombing of a girl’s school where 120 children were killed. On March 31, 2011 NATO forces led by the US began bombing Libya under the Responsibility to Protect doctrine. This is invoked when the security situation in a country remains fragile, compounded by economic mismanagement and arms proliferation. The doctrine posits that sovereignty implies a responsibility to protect populations from mass atrocities, and if a state is unwilling or unable to do so, that responsibility falls to the international community. The bombing continued for 220 days until the Gaddafi government was overthrown which led to a civil war and unrest in the country remains to this day. What happened to the policy if you break it, you own it? Estimates for the 2011 Libyan Civil War death toll range from 15,000 to 30,000 deaths across both anti-Gaddafi rebels and pro-regime forces. Congress never passed a formal authorization or declaration of war for the mission. Four times in the past ten years the people of Iran have taken to the streets to protest against their government and each time the protest met with a military response, the last time an estimated 30,000 civilians were killed. The difference between Obama’s foray into Libya and the present situation in Iran is that Obama used the cover of NATO and Trump chose to go it alone. NATO without the US is much like the UN, all bark and no bite. Diplomatic negotiations without the possibility of enforcement is a waste of time.

European economy

The United States must once again come to the rescue of Europe because of policies they have pursued. It began, in earnest, with the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 where countries agreed to limit production of green house gas emissions. Europe, concerned about global warming, moved to replace fossil fuels with wind and solar. It was an emotional decision done without considering the long-term ramifications. First off Europe doesn’t have that much wind or sun and second, they didn’t consider the fact that both wind and solar are intermittent and need back up. Germany, the industrial powerhouse of Europe decided to shut down their coal plants along with their nuclear plants. Then they chose to stop using Russian natural gas and watched their energy cost quadruple. In 2008, the GDP per capita in Europe was 76% of the US and by 2023 that had fallen to 50%. Europe can no longer compete on the world market and production is moving to China and the US. One of the ironies is that Europe is using windmills and solar panels made in China where 60% of their energy comes from coal. The result is that Europe is now dependent on liquified natural gas (LNG) from America, where imports have increased from 4% to over 60% over the past five years. Without this LNG their economy would crash.

Voter fraud

California is under investigation for voter fraud but that should be the last state to rely on fraud. The state has 10 million registered democrats and 5 million registered republicans so there would be no need for fraud. The system is set up to cause concern about fraud. Every registered voter gets a ballot in the mail. They do not have voter ID and voters can return their ballot by mail, in person, put it in drop box or have a third party deliver the ballot. Ballots are sent out a month before election and this causes some concern because ballot harvesting is legal in California. Prior to 2013 a voter had to be ill or disabled for someone else to return their ballot and that person had to be a family member. After 2013 any family member could return a ballot regardless of health. In 2016 anyone could return ballots and there was no limit on how many they could return. Those who are concerned about fraud suggest that people could be contacted by ballot collectors and could then be instructed on how to fill out the ballot.

Unions

I have long been a proponent of private company unions but opposed to public unions. At the end of WW 2 over 30% of workers were members of private unions but today that figure has fallen to 6% and in the process wages for working people have stagnated. The growth in public sector unions has been the reverse going from less than 4% in 1950 to 32% today. Public unions create inherent conflicts of interest and lack market constraints since they negotiate with taxpayer money. The result has been long term debt accumulation by states and the federal government. Public unions have kept defined pension benefit plans while most private companies have moved on to the far less costly 401k plans. A simple example clearly explains the problem. John starts his career working for the state at age 24 and retires at age 62. His final salary is $80,000. He contributes $4,800 (6%) into his pension. He pays $6,120 (7.65%) into social security/Medicare. He pays $6,931 in federal income tax and $3,625 in MN state income tax. His take home pay is $58,524. At retirement his pay is 1.7% times the number of years he worked (38) times his final salary of $80,000 or $51,680. His social security benefit is 19,000 for total gross income of $70,680. After tax he takes home $60,431 which is more than he was making while working. All states are in debt, primarily because of pension obligations but some states like California, New York and Illinois are particularly egregious. The public unions in California are in many ways running the state. The number of California retirees collecting a public pension of more than $100,000 hit an all time high of 79,235 last year, up 85% since 2013. Of these 13,000 are teachers. President Franklin D. Roosevelt opposed public sector unions because he believed the government employer is the public itself. He argued that a strike by government workers was an intolerable effort to obstruct the operations of government, and that democratic processes—not collective bargaining—should dictate public policy

Dumping

China is up to its old tricks but this time on steroids. They have a glut of manufactured items that they are trying to dump on the world market but countries are following the US and placing high tariffs on imports from China. In September 2024 the Biden administration increased tariffs on Chinese EV’s to 100% and this ended any EV’s coming from China. Europe is finally waking up and is now increasing tariffs on Chinese EV’s but they are not high enough yet to make the Chinese cars as expensive as European EV's produced in Europe. The current tariff on Chinese imported EV’s is 50% but that is not high enough to level the playing field because sales of Chinese EV’s account for 42% of all EV’s sold in Europe. China is using the same dumping process on many other products.

Cleanup

It is not always easy to get accurate information and here are a couple of examples. According to the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ), homicides fell 21 percent between 2024 and 2025, approaching the lowest rate in 125 years. Gun assaults dropped 22 percent, and carjackings plummeted 43 percent (CCJ, 2026). Taken together, violent crime is now lower than it was before the pandemic. Here is a recent report from NPR President Trump's deployment of the National Guard in Washington, D.C. has reduced petty property crimes, but has had little to no effect on violent crime, despite the high cost to taxpayers, according to a new analysis from the nonpartisan think tank Niskanen Center. This is a report about the cleanup in Washington DC Washington, D.C. is undergoing a massive cleanup effort. Spearheaded by the "Making the District of Columbia Safe and Beautiful" task force and federal agencies, authorities have dismantled over 140 homeless encampments and made thousands of arrests for narcotics, firearms offenses, and other crimes Here is a report from NPR Despite President Trump's federal intervention in D.C. and clearing of homeless encampments, there are people who still live on the streets. Service providers just have a harder time finding them.

China

After Japan was defeated in WW 2, Mao took control of China and an estimated 50 million people died because of self-induced famine, mass political executions, force labor and brutal purges. Between 1949 and 1956 the government nationalized all private enterprises, restricted private ownership and placed all industry and commerce under state control, a full communist government. The country stagnated until Dung Xiaoping took control in 1978. He started the “Reform and Opening-up” policy, shifting away from a planned economy to a socialist market economy. Dung had been to the West and understood free market capitalism but wanted to keep political control in the hands of the federal government. Many In the West believed that once the people got economic freedom, they would demand political freedom but that did not happened. The West gladly did business with China to capture the billion new potential customers and China began to grow slowly at first but accelerating later. China was given special status as a developing country and in 30 years became a major economy on the world stage. The free-market approach allowed people to retain their profits and this led to the rapid expansion where a half billion people were moved out of poverty.

Crime

In the world today there is some confusion about race and skin color. The people in North Africa, the Middle East, North Asia along with Europe are all Caucasians but their skin color is slightly different. Many people from Egypt, Libya and Tunisia have lighter skins than many from Southern Italy and Greece. The same is true for people from Saudi Arabia and Afghanistan. All too often people are divided by oppressor and oppressed as determined by skin color with Whites being seen as the oppressor. For those who champion the oppressed this poses a dilemma. It means the Jews are the oppressors and the Palestinians are the oppressed. Here in the US, some judges see non-White skin people as oppressed and feel uneasy about sending them to prison. These judges see these people as victims of some past real or perceived mistreatment which caused them to commit criminal acts. They see the prison inmates who are disproportionately Black and Hispanic as proof of their conclusions and thus are reluctant to add more minorities to the prison population. This explains the many cases of individuals with multiple criminal convictions who are roaming the streets. About 68% of released state prisoners are rearrested within 3 years, jumping to 83% over a 9-year follow-up period. One of the best ways to reduce crime is to put repeat offenders in jail. Often times minor crimes are indicative of major crimes. In New York City, 38 individuals arrested for assault in the transit system in a single year were collectively linked to 1,100 additional crimes across the city. City date shows that 542 people arrested for shoplifting were responsible for committing 7,600 other crimes.

Space

A woman on TV who said she represented the scientist of NASA announced that all of the people in her group feel certain that there is intelligent life in the universe besides earth. Not only do most people agree with that but most also would like to have a visitor. The follow up question was not asked. If you believe there is life out there, using your wildest imagination, how would these visitors get to earth. The answer would be Star Trek’s warp drive which allows travel faster than light. Then ask those same scientists if this is a likely scenario and they will respond no. If such travel were to happen the visitors would lay out in a distant orbit and contact the earth and explain where they are from and their purpose for being here.

Disparate impact

Major tech firms are trying to hire more women techies. Women make up only about 30% of these positions. Using the rules of disparate impact this means there is discrimination involved. Men outnumber women computer science majors four to one. Men earn 80% of all computer science degrees. Using these criteria then that would explain why 80% of elementary teachers are women. Men are being kept out of these jobs because they are men. There may be reasons in the past why men and women chose careers but those reasons no longer exist but the trend continues. It is more likely that the causes of these discrepancies are not discrimination but rather the choice that people make for their careers. This is why the rules of disparate impact which state that any number in a group that does not agree with the statistical number in that group must be discrimination. Because women represent 50% of the population, they must be 50% of the teachers and the same goes for computer engineers. While there remains discrimination based on gender in both education and computer science in regards to salaries, it is not based on hiring practices.

Wealth gap

The Constitution is designed to protect individual rights rather than group rights. The push for group rights emerged in the mid 60’s with affirmative action, shifting away from the colorblind civil rights goals of the 50’s to remedies addressing historical discrimination. Free market capitalism is based on personal economic liberty, self determination and individual effort. Socialism is based on equal outcomes, equity. Democratic socialism operates within the capitalism framework but uses government regulation, progressive taxation and public assistance to lessen inequalities. The country vacillates between free market capitalism and democratic socialism depending on which party is in power. It is necessary that the buildup of wealth precede the redistribution of that wealth.

Rich

The old adage of the rich get richer is grounded in financial common sense. A forty-year-old man has assets totaling one billion dollars. He follows the strategy of borrow till you die and allows his estate to grow at ten percent per year and in forty years he will have $45 billion. He needs one million per year to cover his life style so he borrows that getting a low 5% rate using his assets as collateral. Over the next 40 years he will pay out $41 million in interest but his estate passes to his heirs without paying any capital gains tax or if the money is in an estate trust no estate tax. In addition, there are ways for him to deduct a good part of the interest. The rich do this generation after generation and the wealth gap grows larger. Some suggest raising the income tax rates but these very rich do not pay income tax. The way to stop this is to say that any estate over $10 million will pay tax. This allows small estates to pass without destroying the business and still keeps the super-rich from escaping taxes. Thirty years ago, the billionaires owned $240 billion in assets and today they own $7,800 billion in assets. Much of this money is passed to heirs untaxed. This will also offer incentives for the rich to risk investing in new business ventures.

Issues

What do Americans want for the future of America and is this what is best for America. Using the common-sense approach and tying that to what is practical there are policies that can be agreed to. Bringing manufacturing jobs back home. Having reciprocal trade policies. Asking Europe to provide for their defense instead of relying on the US. Using the Abraham Accords to unite Israel with the Arab oil countries to rebuild Gaza. Asking NATO to pay their share of expenses including troops. Recognizing that wind and solar cannot replace fossil fuels but nuclear can. Having a secure border. Remaining energy independent. Spread the cost of the UN among all parties and not just rely on the US. End the war in Iran. Take steps to reduce the wealth gap. Encourage foreign investment. Promoting private unions. Use AI to increase productivity to keep interest rates low. Increase oversight on government programs to reduce waste and fraud. This means to concentrate on economic and foreign policy and not be distracted by peripheral cultural issues like gender surgery on minors and men in women’s bathrooms and how many sexes there are.

Campaign strategy

As the warmups for the 2028 presidential election get underway the democrats have plans to exploit the anti-Trump energy simmering throughout the party. The policies of the base can be played down by playing up the Trump strategy. This is necessary because many of these policies are unpopular. According to many writers they will concentrate on Trump until after the election when they will be free to come out with their plans. They will rejoin the Paris Accords promoting wind and solar to replace fossil fuels. They will stop deportations and resume an open border policy. They will cancel all tariffs and allow other countries to resume the unfair tariffs of the past. They will resume sending money to Europe to help Ukraine. They will allow the Abraham Accords to languish into the ash heap of history. They will push wind and solar and ignore nuclear power. They will cut back on support for fossil fuels and pass legislation to make fracking more expensive. They will back off the push to bring manufacturing jobs back home. Their primary economic plan will be to tax the rich and use the money for more public assistance programs like universal health and childcare. On the cultural side they will promote men in women’s sports, including locker rooms. They will promote gender surgery on minors and special rights for gays. The writers are basing their idea by following the recent campaign strategies of the recently elected governors of Virginia and New Jersey.

Compassion

The basic platform for the democratic party is based on the old anti colonialism concept of the oppressors over the oppressed. This is founded on the idea that different groups are treated differently. White oppresses dark skins, men oppress women, straights oppress gays, rich oppress the poor, management oppresses labor, Christians oppress non-Christians, thin people oppress fat people, and majorities oppress minorities. Liberals are people who want to protect the powerless from the powerful. It is what Jesus preached and is the moral thing to do. Success is achieved when equal results are the norm. They often view law officers as oppressors and concentrate on justice for the accused. Their basic economic plan is the redistribution of wealth and income and the goal is equity, equal results. This conflicts, in many cases, with the basic concept of free market capitalism but seems to fit nicely with socialism. Keeping people in groups, identity politics, is a way to separate the oppressor from the oppressed. Compassion and the golden rule are the motivating factors.

Israeli wars

Israel became a state in 1948 and immediately five Arab nations, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria declare war on Israel. The war ended in less than a year with Israel winning and expanding their borders. Next came 1956 when Egypt seized control of the Suez Canal and Israel went to war and in a few months took over the Sinai Peninsula and the Gaza Strip but were forced by the US to give back the areas. The next war came in 1967 and lasted six days and Israel captured the Sinai Peninsula, the Gaza strip, West Bank, East Jerusalem and the Golan Heights. This was followed up with the 1973 attack by Egypt and Syria, the 1982 Lebanon War, the 2006 Lebanon War and various other conflicts up to 2023. Through all of these years Israel was regularly hit with rockets, provided by Iran, by way of Syria, Lebanon, Gaza and Yemen with the constant cry of death to Israel. Then in Oct 2023 Hamas soldiers invaded Israel, killed 1,200 and took 250 prisoners. Israel negotiated 21 days to get a prisoner release to no avail and then sent in the army. This resulted in the deaths of 75,000, mostly civilian, because Hamas mingled the troops among the people. This strategy allowed Hamas to show pictures of the innocent people who were killed and allowed them to win the public relations war. The end result was that the Israelis were convicted in the poll of public opinion of genocide.

Iran history

It was in November 1979, one year before the 1980 elections, when Iran took over the US embassy and held 52 Americans hostage for 444 days. The inflation rate was 15%, the unemployment rate 7.5% and the prime interest rate was 11%. A 30-year mortgage was 13% so the housing market was at a standstill. The price of oil tripled and gas prices doubled but the US stayed out of war because of the fear of harming the hostages. The US used economic sanctions against Iran and the day President Reagan was sworn into office Iran released the hostages. They did this to affect the outcome of a American election. Over the years since then, Iran has killed Americans a number times. Beirut Bombings in 1983, the Khobar Towers in 1996, the Iraq War 2003 and Proxy Attacks in 2023. Each time the US complained to the United Nations and issued sanctions. The threat of Iran getting a nuclear bomb held the world at bay for 40 plus years, until 2025 when the US with the help of Israel decided to take military action against Iran but many in America wanted to stay with diplomacy. Looking back with the benefit of hindsight, many feel that the take over of the embassy should have resulted in the US declaring war on Iran but it was always easier to push any military action down the road. After 9-11 polls showed the American people wanted to take military action against Afghanistan and the same was true after Pearle Harbor. Apparently, the US is only ready to retaliate when directly attacked.