China Ukraine

China is waiting in the wings watching carefully the war in Ukraine. They want it to be a prolong war much like Afghanistan where both sides wear themselves down both militarily and financially. This incidentally what the defense contractors in the US would prefer. If China thinks that Putin is starting to lose they will send weapons and munitions to help him. It is to the advantage of the western powers to reach a settlement and start the process of rebuilding Ukraine but as of this time the hawks in the US are winning. Soon the news about the war will slide into the back ground and people in the west will just hop on the next hot item. Meanwhile the people of Ukraine will watch their country being destroyed and their young people being killed.

Inflation

The economy lost 20 million jobs when the country shut down during the pandemic. Those jobs have now returned but because the population is larger the labor participation rate is down to 62.3% from the pre pandemic rate of 63.3% There are currently 10 million job opening which is the same as pre pandemic. This shortage of employees will put pressure on employers to raise wages which will lead to what economist call wage/price inflation. US oil production is now at 12 million barrels per day which is one million barrels below the pre pandemic levels. Russian oil production is down because of the war and OPEC recently announced they would cut production by one million barrels per day. All of this will fuel rising inflation which means the fed will keep raising interest rates. Purchasing things like cars and homes will cost more as will credit card purchases. Rising oil prices means rising transportation cost for all products. This will also increase gasoline prices. The push to bring manufacturing jobs back home means higher wages so inflation will be around and getting higher over the next few years. The US must go all out to get oil production up to the 17 million barrels it was production in 2019.

Chicago

To use an old phrase, today there is a bell weather election in Chicago. How it goes will tell the country which way the other big cities will go. Crime is up by 46% this year and crime is the major issue in the campaign. One candidate is a man who wants to spend less on police and use that money for social programs. The other want to build up the police. The interesting thing is that crime is rated the most important issue but by only 50% of the people.

Married

About four years ago the news came out that MN congresswoman Ilhan Omar married her brother. In time the FBI investigated and was unable to confirm that. So the world's greatest investigatory organization cannot find out if some one is married. I wonder how they handle suspected spies.

Ladies

An incoming Mass school superintendent revealed that his job offer was rescinded prior to his start date after he addressed two women on the schools' committee as "ladies" in an email. Vito Perrone was offered the position as the head of East Hampton Schools on March 23, but was notified that the job offer has been withdrawn over his choice of salutation in and email to the chairperson and executive assistant, both female, who reportedly interpreted his, "ladies" greeting as a "microaggression" the Daily Hampshire Gazette reported. My question is, how should he have addressed them. Is it no longer proper to open the meeting by saying, Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen.

Palin

Some who have investigated the bank collapse of 2008 have suggested that the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers would lead to a contagion of bank problems which then forced the government to bail out the rest of the banking industry. When trying to figure out why Lehman was allowed to fail a number of theories have been suggested and one is of political interest. Polls had Obama in the lead the summer before the election. The excitement for Palin was at a fever pitch the week after her nomination and the polls began to shift toward McCain and then on 9-15 Lehman collapsed and the polls quickly reversed course and the election was over. John Zogby found that the effects of Palin's selection were helping the McCain ticket since "She has high favorability numbers, and has unified the Republican Party."

China labor

It was recently reported that China overstated its population by 150 million people but this did not come as a surprise to many China watchers. Because the government controls all the data without any free press to check, it does the obvious and cooks the books. The reported GDP is also questionable as 25% of this is investments in real estate. The Chinese people are heavily into China's real estate boom. In order to keep people employed China built entire cities that sit mostly empty. This meant a large amount of money into something that offers no return. While many people are concerned about the US debt which stands at 130% of GDP, China's debt to GDP ration is 270%. China is facing a demographic disaster because of an aging work force. This is the result of many millions moving from the farms to the city as country people have large families and city families are much smaller. Adding to the problem was China's one child policy which started in 1980 and just ended in 2015. Because people preferred a son statistics show about 40 million missing girls and of course population depends on women. China's exports have been declining since 2008 as more countries look for different suppliers. China scared the world in 2010 when it abruptly cut rare earth exports to Japan because Japan detained a Chinese fishing boat. Since then many US companies have been moving their supply chains out of China and this is expected to continue at an accelerated rate.