Population

An expert is a man who knows more and more about less and less until he finally knows every thing about nothing. Here are a couple of examples. In 1800 an expert in population Robert Malthus predicted that starvation was on the way because of over population The theory states that the supply of food cannot keep up with the growth of the human population, inevitably resulting in disease, famine, war, and calamity. What he did not anticipate was the industrial revolution which resulted in excess food. In 1968 a scientist, Paul Ehrlich wrote a book called,"The Population Bomb", From the opening page, it predicted worldwide famines due to overpopulation, as well as other major societal upheavals and advocated immediate action to limit population growth Here we are today only 60 years after Ehrlich's book and the world is facing depopulation. Here is a quote from the well known Medical magazine Lancet in March of this year By 2050, over three-quarters (155 of 204) of countries will not have high enough fertility rates to sustain population size over time; this will increase to 97% of countries (198 of 204) by 2100. As little as five years ago there were many articles predicting the world's population would increase to10 billion. Today the experts are predicting the population will decline.

Energy

Almost all of the economic progress made by civilization has occurred since the industrial revolution which began about the time America became a country. The basis of this progress was energy beginning with coal and moving into oil and natural gas or what are called fossil fuels. Because of energy, billions of people are no longer starving and other billions are enjoying healthier and longer life times. This can only continue as long as cheap energy is available but people are concerned that this energy, will in itself, destroy the world. The goal toward zero carbon is a waste of time as it just delays the ultimate answer which is nuclear power. Certain groups use the farce of zero carbon to promote social agendas and thus delay the march toward true clean energy which is nuclear. Ordinary citizens are asked to perform certain task to reduce carbon, things like sorting their garbage and ethanol from corn. The facts are clear that these things add carbon. The same is true of organic foods which add more carbon. Other things are even more ridiculous like getting rid of old light bulb, small volume toilet flushing and gas stoves are all just distractions. Meanwhile a billion people, mostly in Africa, are still using wood and dung to cook, heat and light. It is time for the scientific world to wake up and educate the political class in the physics of energy.

Prosperity

In the coming years the US will be called upon once again to bring the world from the edge of disaster as happened after WW 2. The Ukraine War is slowly destroying Russia and the Chinese economy is falling apart because of incompetent leadership which leaves North America as the dominating world power just as it was in the 1950's. After the US adjusts to the loss of globalization by doubling its industrial base it will be in a position to reach out and help Europe. At the start some countries will be aligned with the US and get a head start in the new world economy. Australia and Japan are ready to partner with the US and England is looking in that direction. The rest of Europe will see the many opportunities to partner with North American and the US government will help them join. North America will be independent from the rest of the world but will want to help just as it did after WW 2. This could lead to many years of peace and prosperity. Then the next step will to bring Africa into the modern world. All of these things can be accomplished if the right leadership arises to the challenge and that is a big if.

Immigration

Who is the ideal immigrant for the US at this time. He or she should be young, between 18 and 30 and fluent in English. It cost the government about $150,000 to educate a student from K thru 12 and basically what they learn is to speak, read and write English. An 18 year old immigrate who is fluent can do that. These young people are ready to fill the entry level jobs, they will marry and have children and become consumers. The value of the working force is two fold. First it produces and second in consumes. They will have 40 years to work to help pay for their retirement. Legal immigration allows the government to screen and select migrants who have more formal education, with particular job skills and can speak English. The illegals coming across the southern border will have to learn the language and the faster they do that the better jobs become available to them. The part of this group that is most problematic are young families because the children will take up space in schools and cost the government money for their education and it will be a number of years until they can contribute in the form of producing and consuming. Many native students struggle in school and students who cannot speak the language are at a further disadvantage. Young working age immigrants should be issued individual taxpayer identification numbers (ITIN's) which allows them to legally work. After five years of working they should be eligible for a Green Card which is the next step toward citizenship. To gain citizenship the applicant must show proficiency in English. This whole process will allow the country continue to accept legal immigrants while dealing with the influx of illegal migrants. This seemingly logical step by step plan to solve the immigration situation will be totally discarded by government infighting.

Border bill

During the 2022 mid term elections the expected red wave did not materialize and many experts blamed Trump because his preferred candidates lost 4 senate races, 11 house races and 10 governor races. The backing by Trump proved to be a flop. Fast forward to the vote on the immigration plan of 2024. Here the press said the bill failed because Trump pushed a no vote. In just two years Trump went from having very little influence to having a lot of influence. Chances are there were other important factors that determined the vote and not just Trump. One of these is that the bill would have allowed an unlimited number of illegal migrant children to enter the country. If this had passed the word would have gone out around the world and children from many countries would have been on their way to America. Another reason for failure was the bill was because of the $118 billion dollar cost only $20 billion went to the border.

De globalization

When the Soviet Union fell in 1990 the US realized it no longer had to protect the ocean shipping lanes for its allies and the door was opened for bringing manufacturing jobs back home. The need for shorter supply lines, which Covid emphasized, and the desire for customers to receive products promptly was a major influence in reshoring. The labor costs, particularly in China, were rising quickly. This cuts out the middle man, mostly transportation cost, which have doubled in recent years. The US has a skilled work force. The risk of patent infringement is much less when making things at home. The technology advancements will allow the new plants to be more efficient. The Chinese economy is suffering from many directions and the hope is they will decline slowly so the US has time to build up its industrial base to take on the new manufacturing that will be needed to replace the imports. Over the next ten years there will be millions of good paying, hopefully union, jobs that will require a high school education. Those going to college, unless they have economic security, will have to choose their studies based on the needs of business and many businesses will be setting up programs to help students in particular areas of study.

Reshoring

Reshoring is the word used to describe being jobs back home. It is helpful to look as a specific case. Appliances are one of the industries seeing the greatest employment growth. GE has just opened a plant that will be the prototype of many new plants. It is a state of the art water heater plant in New Jersey that will be vertically integrated meaning it will make many of the parts on site not just the finished product. Things like metal fabrication, welding and enameling of the steel. The plant is designed for future expansion. The plant will use high tech robotics run by team leaders and maintenance employees who will be trained on site. These will be high school grads whose productivity will be enhanced by machines and whose value will be rewarded with high pay and benefits.