Thursday, October 3, 2024
REC's
Renewable Energy Certificates (REC's) are issued when a wind farm or solar farm or a home owner produces one megawatt-hour (MWh) of electricity so one REC is earned for each MWh. That REC can now be sold at the current market price. Companies will buy these REC's to meet their renewable goals. Amazon for example can purchase these and then say they are 100 % renewable even though the are still getting power from fossil fuel plants. The same is true for other industries.
LNG
Because of fracking the US has an abundance of natural gas which keeps energy prices low.
Ammonia is made from natural gas and is responsible for the increase in grain production which has been significant. In 1950 corn production was 37 bushels per acre and today it is 177. The same is true for all crops and this has kept many countries from suffering from low food supplies.
Natural gas is the main feed stock for chemical companies and many European companies are relocating to the US because of the low price of gas. Natural gas in the US cost about $2 and in Europe it is $8. Home heating cost in the US are four times cheaper than in Europe. If the US would go to natural gas for transportation the fuel cost would be cut in half. The US is the largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and expected to double exports by 2028. The US has 8 LNG export facilities and expected to have 17 more in the next five years. The expanded use of natural gas will do more to bring down the the problem of climate change than anything else other than going to nuclear power.
War
More specifically, when a renewable energy generator, like a wind or solar farm, produces one megawatt-hour (MWh) of electricity, exactly one REC is created. That REC can now be purchased and retired by anyone who uses a MWh of electricity. When that happens, they have officially used that renewable energy. Arcadia partners with renewable energy generators to source, verify, purchase and most importantly retire RECs on your behalf. Remember, once a REC is retired, it can never be sold again, as you’ve officially consumed that renewable energy.
China
The Chinese economy operates in a different manner than the US and can easily be misunderstood by the West. For example if the Chinese government wants to influence production cost it does not interact directly by offering cash incentives. It would not give cash to the steel industry but it might offer low interest loans or charge lower rates for electricity or not enforce certain regulations. If they wanted to buy or sell large amounts of US dollars they would not use the central bank since they have many state banks who could do that without the general public realizing what was going on.
Reshoring
Reshoring is on the way
Companies invested a record $19.7 billion in June 2024 in the construction of manufacturing facilities, up by 18.6% from the already surging levels in June 2023, up by nearly 100% from June 2022, and up by 209% from June 2019, according to the Census Bureau today.
Copper
Americans don't like mining.
The big elephant in the room regarding mining is even more problematic than is currently understood. The experts today talk about how the materials needed for wind and solar are mostly mined and Americans don't like mines and so most are mined in other countries. When the need for additional materials is calculated it is based on current mining cost but this is misleading. Take for example the mining of copper and all the other elements would tell the same story. In the last century mining for copper began with digging up the ore and crushing it into particles about 150 microns in size which is about half the size of a human hair. The ore itself was about three percent copper. These particles are then put in an aqueous solution where bubbles of air are introduced. Copper does not like water so it grabs onto an air bubble and rises to the top forming a foam which is scooped off. The foam contains 25% copper and this is further concentrated. The copper in the form of copper sulfate is then refined in a furnace to 99% purity. This whole process remains in effect today but the low hanging fruit has been mined so that the new mines contain copper at point one percent instead of three percent meaning 30 times more ore must be mined to get the same amount of copper. This lower concentration of the ore must be taken into account when final cost is calculated and also the additional piles of waste.
Income gap
Medicare withholds 1.45% of salary up to $200,000 for couples at which time it increases by .9% to 2.35% and this is matched by the employer. It covers all income with no upper limit. Social security is 6.2% from employer and employee up to $168,000. In order to close the income gap social security contributions could be increase to cover all income much like Medicare. Another step would be to have no social security deductions on the first $50,000 and then double the deductions to 12.8%. While most families with incomes below $50,000 pay no income tax they all pay social security tax. These are changes that can be made without any additional government agencies since social security and Medicare are already in place.
Another way to reduce the gap is by making changes in the earned income tax credit (EITC) which started in 1975. Prior to that time if you were receiving public assistance (welfare) and went to work you would lose some or all of your public income. The government wanted to encourage people to work but in typical government fashion they just didn't eliminate the penalty for working they kept the penalty but added the EITC. Here is a typical benefit. A mother with two children works and earns $20,000 receives $5,500 in EITC but if she earns $40,000 the EITC drops to $2,100. This could be increased both in the earnings and in the benefit, once again without any new programs.
A third way to help close the gap is the Child Tax Credit which is currently set at $2,000 per child could be increased to $5,000 and that would mean that a family of four would pay no income tax on earnings up to $140,000. Once again this requires no additional programs.
Forth is to remove income tax on the first $50,000 of social security benefits.
If these four suggestions were initiated the income gap would be cut in half over night. Until recently most people were not comfortable with income redistribution but the gap has gotten so wide that many are now willing to look at changes. Currently the top 20% of wage earners receive 50% of the income.
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