Syria

The news people were in agreement that Putin and Obama did not get along but they may have been mistaken. I say that because today Putin got Obama out of a very awkward situation by offering to discuss the placing of Syria’s chemical weapons under the care of an international group. Immediately Obama said that he had previously discussed this action with Putin and that we would not be at this point if he, Obama, had not threatened to use the military against Syria. This is a great example of snapping victory from the mouth of defeat. It is one of Obama’s best political coup’s. The Presidents demeanor immediately reflected his new found way out and I say great. The Syrian foreign minister said he would look into the idea and the United Nations quickly announced a meeting to discuss the proposal.

American exceptionalism

The subject of American Exceptionalism has once again come up in the news and I would like to relate anecdotally a personal experience. In the summer of 1957 I was working in a flour mill in Springfield, IL and we had three mills. The C Mill was the largest and could produce 1,400 pounds per minute of whole wheat flour. That summer we packaged this flour in ten pound bags and we ran for four months and during that time we produced 24 million bags. We had to get special permission from the state to run more than 6 straight days and they allowed us to run thirteen days and then we would shut down for one day and start up again. These bags were printed on one side in English and on the other side in Arabic and they were sent to Saudi Arabia. The print said this flour is a gift from the people of the United States to the people of Saudi Arabia. At that time there were only 4 million people living there and they were mostly Bedouins roaming around the desert. This was enough four to give every man, woman and child 60 pound and that was a huge supplement to their regular diet. It was during this same time that big American companies like Standard Oil sent engineers and equipment there and developed the oil fields. This was a shared adventure with the country and the oil companies but later the country nationalized the oil business and today they own it all. Today Saudi Arabia is a thriving prosperous county owing in no small part to the early gifts of food and talent from the United States. Yes they had oil but for thousands of years they did nothing about it until the west came in to help. A good business deal is when both sides win and this was one. A small thing, perhaps compared to the way we helped Germany and Japan after the war but my guess is there are many other such examples of help that most of which we are not aware. Note that the religion of the two groups played no part in their cooperative effort as is the case in business. Capitalism is about creating profits and in the process creating prosperity.

Wise king

Many years ago there lived a wise king who one day called his scholars together and asked them to write down all of the knowledge they had accumulated so that future generations could build on that. A year later they returned with 12 large volumes and he said, no, no. People will not have time to read that, go back and condense it. A year later they returned with one large book and he sent them away again. Finally three years later they handed him a piece of paper and he read it and said that is what I was looking for and the on the paper was written one sentence and it said, “there ain’t no free lunch”! If you were raised in a home where you were taught that you must work to support yourself, you understand the message but if you were brought up in a well fare home you may not. What was your home like? When President Obama came out five years ago and announced that his new health care plan would insure 31 million new people and it would not cost anything, did you believe that. Do you think he believed that? The answer depends on how you grew up.

Third party payer

There is a solution to the health care cost problem but vested interest are opposed to the idea. It is based on the concept of getting away from third party payers. Suppose you could purchase food insurance. You would pay a monthly premium and then you could go the market, buy your groceries and present your card and go home. After a while you would be concerned about the quality of the food and the location of the store but you would not care about the price. I have often heard people who were in the hospital talk about two dollars for cotton balls and three dollars for aspirin but they do it in a light hearted way because they didn’t have to pay out of pocket. It is estimated that 25% of the cost of health care is in administration and ask any physician and they will confirm that the paper work is expensive. If we could reduce this cost, the savings could be used to take care of the uninsured. Assume that have your health insurance through your employer. On average the employer pays $9,000 per year for a family plan. Typical plans are $100 deductible, 10 to 20% co-pay and some maximum annual out of pocket, on average $2,000. I propose that the company set up a $10,000 annual deductible plan, and this would cost them about $3,000 per family. You would be responsible for the cost of all your health care until it reached $10,000 for your family year at which time the insurance would cover the rest. Whenever you needed health care you would shop for it just as you do other items you purchase. After you have selected your provider you would pay your bill directly to them. They would not be required to contact the insurance company or to fill out any forms other than your receipt. Your treatment would be decided between you and the provider. You would keep track of your annual family health care expenses and if it should ever exceed $10,000, only then would you file a claim, otherwise you would just turn in your total receipts for the year. If you had a year with no claims the insurance company would deposit $7,000 into an account with your name on it. If your claims came to some amount less than $10,000, say $3,000 the insurance company would subtract $3,000 from the $7,000 and put $4,000 into your account. At the end of some predetermined time the insurance company would send you a check for the entire amount in your account. If the above $3,000 annual cost continued for a ten-year period the company would send you a check for $40,000. This procedure would eliminate the paper work on 98% of all claims (those less than $10,000) and thus the reduction in administrative cost. The savings is enough to provide the uninsured with a $10,000 annual deductible policy and they would have the same plan that those with company sponsored plans. There are additional savings involved if the government would allow your savings to accumulate on a tax free basis. Such plans have been around for some years now but large companies have not gotten involved with them. One company Golden Rule has such plans. This of course could also be a national health care plan sponsored by the government where everyone has the same plan. The point is that as long as you have a third party payer system cost will continue to increase more rapidly than other cost that are controlled by the purchaser. You only have to understand human nature to figure this out, but vested interest have too much to lose and that is why we don’t have such a system in place right now.

Obamacare

Health care in America is at a crossroads and the big problem is the rising cost. My preferred solutions is to get rid of the third party payer but that means the elimination of 10 million jobs in the insurance industry and the vested interest are so well entrenched that this will not happen. The second alternative is Obama care or something similar and with all the talk about the cost one might well ask, how this could possible help but the answer is to look further down the road. The initial cost will grow but as the plan is fully implemented the cost will decline. It is well known that 75% of the cost of healthcare occurs in the last two years of life and this is where Obamacare will save money. There will be a committee set up in Washington to decide on what type of care will be provided and the key to savings is in rationing. They will start with the less provocative cases and move forward. For example they might decide that a ninety year old man with a bad heart does not qualify for a liver transplant and then work toward more controversial cases. The reason we find ourselves in this predicament is that science and technology have out-paced our ability to pay. The country cannot afford to offer everyone every possible treatment so rationing, the so called, “death panels”, is the only alternative. The very wealthy using their own resources will buy what the rest of us will do without. This is not a new idea since our legal system has been operating this way forever. If you can afford, “The Dream Team”, that OJ Simpson had, your chances of success are much greater than some poor inner-city kid who robbed a convenience store.

Putin to Obama's rescue

The news people were in agreement that Putin and Obama did not get along but they may have been mistaken. I say that because today Putin got Obama out of a very awkward situation by offering to discuss the placing of Syria’s chemical weapons under the care of an international group. Immediately Obama said that he had previously discussed this action with Putin and that we would not be at this point if he, Obama, had not threatened to use the military against Syria. This is a great example of snapping victory from the mouth of defeat. It is one of Obama’s best political coup’s. The Presidents demeanor immediately reflected his new found way out and I say great. The Syrian foreign minister said he would look into the idea and the United Nations quickly announced a meeting to discuss the proposal.

All in Syria

The following is a hypothetical situation made up in the mind of your distinguished but sometime disoriented host. Obama: There will be two days of bombing and that’s it. Reporter: What about ground troops. Obama: Read my lips….no troops on the ground. One week later the Assad government has collapsed and there is chaos throughout the land with various groups running wild and all of the chemical weapons sites are left unguarded and reports are coming in that terrorist are loading up on these weapons. Obama: We must send in ground troops to protect the chemical weapons sites so they don’t fall into the hands of terrorist. Reporter: What about your statement concerning troops on the ground. Obama: Things have changed and a good manager is willing to change where new information presents itself. So if you are wondering why assurances from The President are not soothing fears but raising doubt, be advised that circumstances change and this is especially true in war. The day we bomb we are as they say in poker, all in.

Syria 09-05-13

Here is my latest view on Syria. As things stand now there are two separate groups trying to dislodge Assad from power. There is the Free Syrian Army described as non-sectarian and made up of Syrian citizens who are fed up with the dictator and a group of Muslim extremist headed by al-Qaida types. Conventional wisdom says that Assad will eventually fall and as he goes down he will resort to using WMD and when he is finished the country will dissolve into chaos. At this time the WMD stored at various places around the country will fall into the hands of which ever group gets there first. Which group that eventually takes control, might well depend on the action that the US takes at this time. If we back the Free Army they will likely gain control. My proposal for US action is based on the above scenario and involves the use of air intervention and supplying the Free Syrian Army with anti-tank weapons along with other military equipment. The air intervention will mean a no-fly zone and all Syrian planes will be shot down similar to what happened in Libya. The Free Army will agree to turn over all WMD sites to the US when Assad falls and we will go in and gather up these WMD. We will then assist the Free Army in their plan to set up a non-sectarian government (meaning it will not be based on Sharia Law but on more western principals). Our initial move against Assad should be swift and powerful to minimize the time he will have to use WMD. This means a large missile strike followed up with the air blockade. It is better to do nothing than the Presidents idea of a pin prick attack using tomahawk missiles.

Republican health plan

I was watching MSNBC today as they discussed Obamacare and the talking head said that the Republicans have no plan and this remark went unchallenged. Rep Tom Price introduced his health care plan even before Obama proposed his plan. During the run up to McCain’s nomination millions of dollars were spent vilifying the McCain health care plan. After that campaign the plan was sponsored by Paul Ryan and Tom Colburn. When the news is presented is such a manner, where inaccurate remarks are presented as truth, the press loses credibility. If the plan is not a good one that should be pointed out but too say there was no plan is somewhat disingenuous at best and dishonest at worst.

Boehner Syria

Yesterday Speaker Boehner announced that he would back The President’s plan to bomb Syria. Now the news media, always prefers controversy, so they can continue to report that the Republican congress is against everything Obama wants to do, so they reported this as Obama pulls off a coup. Here is how it could have been reported. Speaker Boehner, putting the country ahead of politics, agreed with The President in a plan to deal with the Syrian situation. The latest word is that the strike on Syria will not just make it more difficult to use WMD but will degrade Assad’s ability to wage war. If this is the case it should be swift and powerful because if it is not and Assad starts to lose the war gradually, he will do what dictators losing power always do. He will use any means available to maintain power, which means he will use WMD on a massive scale. If that happens, the US will be under pressure to intervene, even if it means boots on the ground. All of the promises not to use ground forces will go by the wayside. The latest information suggests that the majority of those opposing Assad in Syria are moderate secular Muslims and they could be counted on to rid the country of extremist if they got into power. If that is the case the US should go all out and as quickly as possible defang Assad while at the same time arming the rebels. An arrangement should be made with the rebels for this help by demanding that all WMD be turned over to the United Nations after Assad is deposed. After that the US should get out of the way and let the people in Syria decide what kind of government they desire.

Chemical weapons

We have recently heard that the use of chemical weapons is illegal and that is based on the Chemical Weapons Conventions which starts as follows: The Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) is an arms control agreement which outlaws the production, stockpiling, and use of chemical weapons Notice anything odd about these words, in particular the word stockpiling. 98% of all countries signed on to this convention but Syria is not one of them. All of these countries around the world who signed the convention believe that these weapons should not be used but none of these countries are willing to step up to the plate and go along with the US to punish Syria. Their excuse is that the United Nations has not approved the bombing of Syria. As it stands now we have only one ally, France, but they have stated they will not go along unless our congress approves. We have no support from the United Nations, from NATO or any allies. If congress votes no then Obama stands alone against the world. His choosing to go to congress was a smart move. If they approve he can blame them if things go wrong and if things work out he will take the credit.

Culture war

When LBJ started the War on Poverty in 1965, it was, like many government programs, designed to help the poor. Typically a 16 year old single mom was given an apartment with a separate bedroom for her baby, food to eat, health insurance, cash and other benefits wrapped up in about a dozen other programs. In addition she could work and be eligible for Earned Income Credit. She could also file income tax and receive a $1,000 child tax credit even though she owed no tax. It wasn’t long before the street smart people got wise to this government largess and last year it was a 62 billion dollar bonanza. Through the sixties and seventies the program grew at a moderate rate but in the early eighties certain individuals like Jesse Jackson realized there was money to be made in the War on Poverty and this is where the safety net began its metamorphic rebirth into the hammock it is today. As is often the case the good intentions had unintended consequences. The 16 year old single mom was the daughter of another 16 year old single mom who was the daughter of another 16 year old single mom and that lead to three generations on welfare. What was intended to be a helping hand became a way of life. These young women who grew up in homes where there was no interest in education, were the pawns in a massive game of wealth payments that left them as permanent wards of the state. Recently certain commentators have been pointing out how these programs have affected the culture in the minority neighborhoods. Self-reliance was replaced with government aid, fathers were replaced with government programs, the work ethic replaced with government assistance and entire neighborhoods became dependent on government. As this culture of dependency is brought into the public’s attention those making money from it are upset and claim anyone who talks this way is racist. President Obama is aware of this cultural change and made reference to it in his MLK speech. Legitimate grievances against police brutality tipped into excuse- making for criminal behavior. Racial politics could cut both ways as the transformative message of unity and brotherhood was drowned out by the language of recrimination. And what had once been a call for equality of opportunity, the chance for all Americans to work hard and get ahead was too often framed as a mere desire for government support, as if we had no agency in our own liberation, as if poverty was an excuse for not raising your child and the bigotry of others was reason to give up on yourself. All of that history is how progress stalled. That's how hope was diverted. It's how our country remained divided. Oh, those unintended consequences will get you every time.

Protestors

Just prior to the US entry into the Iraqi War more than 100,000 protestors gathered at the United Nations building in New York but this time only a few hundred showed up. This was after the congress overwhelmingly approved going to war. The vote was 297 to 133 in the house and 77 to 23 in the senate.

Campaigning

President Obama once again illustrates the difference between campaigning and governing when he talks about sending missals into Syria like he did in Libya. Here is what he said as Senator Obama: “The president does not have power under the Constitution to unilaterally authorize a military attack in a situation that does not involve stopping an actual or imminent threat to the nation,” candidate Obama told The Boston Globe in late 2007. He added that the president can only act unilaterally in “instances of self-defense.” When Bush made the decision to go into Iraq he had the approval of 77 Senators including 28 Democrats. He even received encouragement from many democratic senators as shown in a letter sent to Bush. “[W]e urge you, after consulting with Congress, and consistent with the U.S. Constitution and laws, to take necessary actions (including, if appropriate, air and missile strikes on suspect Iraqi sites) to respond effectively to the threat posed by Iraq’s refusal to end its weapons of mass destruction programs.” — From a letter signed by Joe Lieberman, Dianne Feinstein, Barbara A. Milulski, Tom Daschle, & John Kerry among others on October 9, 1998 12 countries including the US gave hundreds of tons of chemical and biological weapons to Saddam and so the world knew that he had WMD. The mistake that the Bush administration made was to ask the question, “where are they”, instead of asking, “where did the go”. As we investigate further into the Syrian situation we may find out where they went since samples of these type weapons can be analyzed and there origin determined.

WMD Ok by US

I spent a lot of time in a Middle East chat room in order to find out why they have such strong dislike and mistrust of the USA. Watching the President express his deep concern and disdain over Syria’s use of chemical weapons is a case in point. Recall that the US along with a dozen other countries gave chemical weapons to Saddam and we stood by when he used them against Iran and against his own people the Kurds. In one Kurdish city 5,000 were killed and 7,000 injured in a chemical attack. As Washington ponders over whether to hammer Damascus over unidentified use of toxic agents in Syria, declassified CIA documents reveal that 25 years ago the US actually indulged ruthless Saddam Hussein to use chemical warfare gases in war with Iran. The recently declassified documents at the National Archives in College Park, Maryland, suggest that the US was closely following the use of chemical weapons by the Saddam Hussein’s regime both against the enemy in the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988) and against Iraq’s Kurdish population, reports Foreign Policy magazine.

MLK Speech

Because they marched, America became more free and more fair, This idea that -- that one's liberty is linked to one's livelihood, that the pursuit of happiness requires the dignity of work, the skills to find work, decent pay, some measure of material security -- this idea was not new. Dr. King explained that the goals of African-Americans were identical to working people of all races: decent wages, fair working conditions, livable housing, old age security, health and welfare measures -- conditions in which families can grow, have education for their children and respect in the community. For over a decade, working Americans of all races have seen their wages and incomes stagnate. Even as corporate profits soar, even as the pay of a fortunate few explodes, inequality has steadily risen over the decades. Upward mobility has become harder And our politics has suffered. Entrenched interests -- those who benefit from an unjust status quo resisted any government efforts to give working families a fair deal, marshaling an army of lobbyists and opinion makers to argue that minimum wage increases or stronger labor laws or taxes on the wealthy who could afford it just to fund crumbling schools -- that all these things violated sound economic principles. And then there were those elected officials who found it useful to practice the old politics of division, doing their best to convince middle-class Americans of a great untruth, that government was somehow itself to blame for their growing economic insecurity -- that distant bureaucrats were taking their hard-earned dollars to benefit the welfare cheat or the illegal immigrant. And then, if we're honest with ourselves, we'll admit that during the course of 50 years, there were times when some of us, claiming to push for change, lost our way. The anguish of assassinations set off self-defeating riots. Legitimate grievances against police brutality tipped into excuse- making for criminal behavior. Racial politics could cut both ways as the transformative message of unity and brotherhood was drowned out by the language of recrimination. And what had once been a call for equality of opportunity, the chance for all Americans to work hard and get ahead was too often framed as a mere desire for government support, as if we had no agency in our own liberation, as if poverty was an excuse for not raising your child and the bigotry of others was reason to give up on yourself. All of that history is how progress stalled. That's how hope was diverted. It's how our country remained divided.

War on Poverty

During my career I spent a number of years in management and it was my goal to provide the time, tools and training to those who worked for me so they could do their jobs. I wanted to create an atmosphere where employees would want to do their best, improve their skills and provide incentives for those who reported to them. Leadership to me meant motivating people to desire to make the most of their talents. It was not my responsibility to do their job for them but to create a work place where they could make the most of their individual skills. I always listen carefully whenever The President gives a speech and Obama’s MLK speech was no exception. I liked what he said and agreed with most. It is much like many of my liberal friends when they say that people want to have a good place to live, a good job that pays a decent wage, health care for when they are sick, comfort when they are old and a good education for all. Here is the way the President phrased it: And with that courage, we can stand together for good jobs and just wages. With that courage, we can stand together for the right to health care in the richest nation on earth for every person. (Applause.) With that courage, we can stand together for the right of every child, from the corners of Anacostia to the hills of Appalachia, to get an education that stirs the mind and captures the spirit and prepares them for the world that awaits them. (Applause.) With that courage, we can feed the hungry and house the homeless and transform bleak wastelands of poverty into fields of commerce and promise. Took up the mantle of the King challange Less than two years after MLK gave his, “I Have A Dream Speech”, LBJ began the war on poverty believing that it was the government that would provide the road to all of the above mentioned benefits. 50 years and 12 trillion dollars later many informed people are admitting that we have lost the war on poverty. I suggest that we not give up on our desire to promote these benefits but we must act like a manager and

Football

Today I encountered another one of those situations that are totally baffling. The NFL has agreed to pay 765 million to 4,500 players who claim head injuries. This sounds reasonable assuming they can prove the injuries are due to football. Since I can’t think of any other reason why this many people, who have playing football in common, might have head injuries, I guess this makes sense. Now here is where the problem comes in. They are still playing football. Is the NFL going to set aside a sinking fund to that it ten years they can cough up another 700 million. What is the reason why they feel that there won’t be more head injuries in the future. It would be like banning head injuries from boxing. If these players really believe that playing football leads to head injuries why are they still playing. With 4,500 joining in the suit it is not a rare thing to have a head injury. It is the norm.

Fast Food Strike

I was watching the news today covering the nation-wide walkout of fast food employees. They are demanding wage increases from $7.50 per hour to $15.00 hour and secondly they want Obamacare. While I am personally 100% behind offering higher pay to these people, I am not sure if they understand the full impact of their demands. There are many young single people working part time at these places and I am not talking about them. I am interested in the full time employee who may be a single mom with two children. Right now as a full time employee she gets forty hours a week and benefits. The benefits vary in different parts of the country but include such standard things as health, disability and life insurance, pension plan, vacation, holidays and sick leave. Her situation is $15,000 per year in wages, plus $5,300 per year in federal earned income credit, $1,900 in Minnesota family income credit. In addition she receives a $2,000 federal income tax credit so her gross income is $24,200. These extra funds are not counted when determining her eligibility for addition benefits such as child care assistance, food support, medical assistance and single mother grants. When her salary is doubled to $30,000 many of these extras will be phased out some completely. I offer one example. The earned income credit from the federal program would be reduced from $5,300 to $3,800. One thing in her favor is that she will still not have to pay any federal or state income tax although her payroll tax withholding will increase from $1,150 to $2,700. If the company then decided to move employees to Obamacare her cost for that will increase from $57 per month to $193 per month. There are likely other items that I have overlooked but she should understand that her take home pay will not increase as much as doubling her salary might lead her to believe. F

Half pay for auto workers

During the recent economic downturn the auto industry was hit hard and the company in the best shape was Ford that did not need a government bailout. Ford survived but had to reduce the number of employees by 50% including some 35,000 in the union. Part of the agreement with the union specified that any new hires would state at $15 an hour compared to the retained union members who are paid $30 per hour. This reminded me of a situation I encountered while working in Ohio where our plant had a cafeteria and as a part of the union negotiations the operating of the cafeteria was turned over to the union. They hired new employees to run the cafeteria and proceeded to pay them half the wage of the average plant employee. Funny how things look from the other side of the fence!

Syria

Here is a quote from President Obama from August 18, 2011: “The future of Syria must be determined by its people, but President Bashar al-Assad is standing in their way,” Obama said in a written statement. “For the sake of the Syrian people, the time has come for President Assad to stepaside.” On a number of occasions over the past two years Obama has said that Assad must go. Now he is preparing to respond to Assad’s use of chemical weapons and he says it is not our policy to promote regime change but only to discourage the use of WMD. Ideally we should have intervened two years ago by arming the militants but since we did not do that, I believe we should now stay out of it. If they want to destroy their own country, that is their business and like many people say when talking about Afghanistan and Iraq, we are not the world’s policeman.

Medical Catastrophic Coverage

The recent interest in rescinding Obamacare reminded me of the 1988 Medicare Catastrophic Coverage Act. For those of you who may have forgotten this was the first change to Medicare since its inception in 1965. The Act was so unpopular that in 1989 congress rescinded the whole thing and it was quietly placed in the dust bin of history. Today we often hear commentators and other so called experts say it is the law of the land so learn to live with it, giving the impression that laws cannot be changed. It has happened before so it is not impossible

War

I listened to Secretary of State John Kerry’s speech yesterday and was struck by the many times he spoke of killing with chemicals. Here is one example: The indiscriminate slaughter of civilians, the killing of women and children and innocent bystanders by chemical weapons is a moral obscenity. If I substitute the word bombs for chemical weapons it illustrates the disconnect we seem to have regarding death of innocent people. I believe that we make this distinction to justify past actions taken by the so called civilized societies. Recall that during WW11 the allies fire bombed cities in Japan and Germany deliberately targeting civilian populations with the goal of demoralizing the enemy and it worked. It likely shortened the war and saved the lives of many on the side of the allies. I point this out to illustrate the twisted logic needed to rationalize behavior especially when it comes to war.

Weather

It appears that one of the most favorite topics of conversation, the weather, is losing its pizzazz, at least for the weather man. In order to juice up the news worthiness the experts have come up with the heat index and the wind chill. This allows them to say that 95 above is really 105 above and 25 below is really 35 below. Well now I notice that these new designations have lost some of their shock power, so I propose we have a couple of new categories called super wind chill and super heat index and that way the TV people can regain some of their lost audience. Just think of how exciting it would be to talk about 120 above. That would certainly make me feel better. What about you?

religious beliefs

When it comes to religious beliefs, I can understand that people have different views and I am generally tolerant of most of these views. I understand the agnostic, the person who says that the existence of God can neither be proved nor disproved and I understand the person whose belief in God is based on faith and needs no proof but I am at a loss to explain the atheist who says there is no God. My guess is that there are atheist who buy lottery tickets, even though the odds of winning might be 100 million to one but I don’t think anyone including an atheist would buy a ticket if they knew they could not win. We are all in agreement that no one knows for sure if there is life after death but why not believe that there is? We have all been given a free will to think as we please and given the choice why not believe that there is a heaven after death. Could it be that their egos are so powerful that they refuse to give up control to a power outside of themselves?

Listening in

Friday 7 June In his first remarks since the Guardian and the Washington Post's revelations, Obama gave a frank rebuttal to privacy concerns. "Nobody is listening to your telephone calls," the president said when asked about the NSA. Monday 17 June Obama defended the NSA program in an interview with Charlie Rose. The president insisted the NSA was "transparent". "What I can say unequivocally is that if you are a US person, the NSA cannot listen to your telephone calls, and the NSA cannot target your emails … and have not," Obama said. Tuesday 6 August Two months after the initial NSA revelations, Obama accepted the NSA had "raised a lot of questions for people" in an interview on NBC's Tonight Show, but insisted surveillance programs did not target US civilians. Friday 9 August "It's not enough for me, as president, to have confidence in these programs. The American people need to have confidence in them as well," Obama said in a speech at the White House, hours after the Guardian revealed that an NSA loophole did allow for warrantless searches of databases for US citizens' emails and phone calls Saturday 10 August The National Security Agency has acknowledged in a new classified briefing that it does not need court authorization to listen to domestic phone calls, a participant in the briefing said. Rep. Jerrold Nadler, a New York Democrat, disclosed on Thursday that during a secret briefing to members of Congress, he was told that the contents of a phone call could be accessed "simply based on an analyst deciding that." Do you think anyone is listening to phone conversations? Stay tuned!

WMD

In previous notes, I pointed out that Iraq received thousands of tons of chemical weapons from about dozen different countries including the US. In the months leading up to the Iraq war truck convoys were observed moving products to Syria. A Russian General was on the scene supposedly to make sure there was no trace of Russian activity in the transferring of these materials. It was at this time that Saddam was to explain how he had destroyed his chemical weapons but he would not say where this was done, since soil samples in that area would reveal whether it happened on not. I mention this because if Syria falls, the inspection of chemical weapons will reveal their source and perhaps finally answer the question as to what happened to Iraq’s chemical arsenal.

Money supply

Many of my friends have not studied Economics and most of those who did have forgotten most of what they learned. One of the terms used in economics is money supply. This refers to the amount of money in circulation including cash, checking and savings and the velocity of money refers to how many times each dollar is spent. If you multiply the money supply times the velocity you get the GDP. The government has three ways to influence the money supply. The first is when the government buys or sells government bonds. If they sell bonds they take money out of the system and if they buy bonds they add money to the system. The second way is to change the discount rate. This is the rate that banks pay to get money from the government. If they lower the rate the banks get more money and if they raise the rate the banks get less money. The third way is to change the reserve requirements. This is the amount of cash banks must keep on hand to back up their loans in case of default. The current requirement is 3 to 10 percent depending on the size of the bank. The reason I bring these things up at this time is to understand why the money supply is not increasing at the expected rate. Under normal conditions when the government buys a bond from a bank and deposits $1,000 in the bank, the bank can then loan out $10,000 and that is how banks increase the money supply. Banks are not making loans. They are investing the money in various vehicles and making a sizable profit. They are taking greater and greater risk with these investments knowing that if they guess wrong the government will come to the rescue. Bank reserves are increasing and bank stocks are rising but if things turn, which often happens, the taxpayer will once again have to ante up. In the meantime the bank stockholders are making money as are the bank executives. This is from an article dated May 16, 2012. May 16 (Reuters) - Big banks are expected to use a larger portion of profits for employee bonuses this year, despite extensive job cuts and a recent outcry from shareholders over excessive pay, according to a closely watched survey of Wall Street compensation.

Health care

If you are interested in one more example showing that the elected officials who designed Obamacare did not know what they were doing, here is the latest. Officials are concerned that young healthy people are not interested in signing up for health care and this is the group whose premiums were expected to offset the cost of covering those with pre-existing conditions. If they had asked anyone who was in the business of selling health care they would have discovered that these sales people do not even waste their time on contacting young singles as they are well aware these people are not good prospects. The penalty for these young people who refuse to get health care is $100 per year and they will just pay that. The penalty does increase to $625 by 2014 but that will still not do it. When people file their federal income tax in April of 2104 there will be a question asking if the person has health care and they will be required to submit proof. If they cannot they will be charged the penalty. One more addition to our tax forms is just what we needed.

NY police

I have mentioned a number of times that the biggest economic problem facing cities, counties and state is what are called legacy benefits. These are payments made to retirees, mostly in the form of health care and pensions. In many large cities, policemen are permitted to retire after 20 years of service with pensions equal to one-half to three-quarters pay. New York city is an example. Uniformed city workers can start collecting after 20 years, while others have to wait until their normal retirement age. The pension time bomb is starkly illustrated by the fact that 10,381 retired cops between 40 and 49 are now collecting. On average these retirees will live another 40 years during which time they will collect over 2 million dollars in pension benefits. The city currently has 44,000 retired police and 34,000 active duty police.

White Guilt

When you use averages and compare Minnesota with other states, we look pretty good but when you did into the numbers we look pretty bad. Our problem has to do with the widening gap between whites and people of color particularly blacks. When you look at graduation rates, drop-out rates, test scores, income, crime, unemployment, jobs, welfare and housing the gap is embarrassing. Our state like many others has been aware of this worsening problem for many years and attempts have been made from time to time to correct the situation but all have failed. They have failed because most of what is done is just spending more money on the problem. This is what the white people who say they are concerned recommend. This is what some people see as an example of white guilt. This is what people who see the problem but don’t have the time or the knowledge to do anything about it.

How Obama got elected

Recently a number of people have asked me how Obama ever got elected and I was surprised to find out how soon people forget. Obama held a steady lead in the polls over McCain all during the spring and summer leading up to the election in November. Then in August things began to change and on August 29th he selected Palin as his running mate and the polls turned sharply in favor of McCain. By mid-September the McCain-Palin ticket held a firm 5 point lead and the momentum swung in their favor. Then on September 15th the Treasury headed by Paulson and the NY Fed headed by Geithner refused to come to the aid of Lehman Brothers and they filed for bankruptcy and that ended the McCain chances, as the polls reversed the trend and he fell five points behind within a few days. Since then many people have asked why Lehman was allowed to fail but other banks were bailed. Most experts agree that Lehman should have been bailed and the panic that followed could have been avoided. The overnight drop in the market and the concern of other banks which were in trouble, contributed to the downward economic spiral, that ensued. Some conspiracy theorist point out, that Geithner became Obama’s Secretary of the Treasury and imply a connection between that and the election results. That may have happened but Obama likely had nothing to do with it. It could be that the money lenders felt more comfortable with an amateur like Obama vs an Washington insider like McCain. In any event, the presence of Wall Streeters in Obama’s cabinet, are about the same as the Bush Administration and in both cases almost too many to count.

Movies and Blacks

About a year ago I purchased an Apple TV. For those of you not familiar, this is a device that allows me to view youtube on my TV. I did this because of the music. It is not easy to find the kind of music that I like in stores but on youtube there is an abundance of performances from artist like Sarah Vaughn. What I discovered were hundreds of old movies from the 30’s and 40’s. When I was growing up we did not go to that many movies so most of these I have not seen. While watching them I noticed something quite different from today’s movies and this is especially evident in crime films. The criminals are almost always white males but in today’s movies blacks are prominently represented among the bad guys. In looking further I find that blacks when the do appear are as butlers or servant types. Although black crime in the 30’s was much less than today it was still higher on a percentage basis than white crime, so why was it absent in the movies? I believe the answer to that question lies in the way cities were segregated. When I was growing up all of the black people lived in one part of town. They shopped in that part of town, went to school in that part of town and attended church and other social function in that part of town. White people were mostly unaware of what was going on in the black community so to see a black criminal in a movie would be foreign to their perception of the world. Years later when TV came along and we saw the struggles of the blacks we were surprised. Our ignorance had protected us from reality. This was one of the main reasons for the uprisings in the 60’s and how the baby boomers thought their parents were hypocrites. The greatest generation had always told their children to treat people with respect and when these 60’s kids saw the way blacks were treated they felt their parents lied to them. They never stopped to understand that their parents had no idea what was happening. On a very personal level I knew more about blacks than most of my friends because I often went with my Dad on his milk route which was in the black part of town and I knew they struggled economically but I was still unaware of their true plight. Or is all this just a rationalization of bad behavior!