Fire and Fury

A couple of months ago a new Trump book called, “Fire and Fury” came out and the major networks spent an inordinate amount of time picking out the most anti-Trump parts of the book. After a few weeks of airing the book was no longer discussed because it was filled with false and misleading statements and lost all credibility. The book sold over one million copies before it was discredited. It had very little to do with policy and almost exclusively filled with examples of what the author considered personality shortcomings involving the President. In early January 2018, Wolff's book Fire and Fury: Inside the Trump White House was published. Excerpts released before publication included unflattering descriptions of behavior by U.S. President Donald Trump, chaotic interactions among the White House senior staff, and derogatory comments about the Trump family by former White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon

stats

Late term abortions are those that take place after 20 weeks or halfway through the gestation period. Of the 1 million legal abortions that occur each year only 1.3% are late term but this is still 13,000 per year. Last year there were 17,000 murders and 8,000 of those were blacks and 90% of those were killed by other blacks. There were 44,000 suicides in the US and more than 90% of suicide victims are later diagnosed as mentally ill. Murders like all major crimes have been declining for the past 25 years and the abortion rates have also been going down. The morning after pill which only cost $8 is one of the reasons however this is a type of abortion but difficult to get data on. I bring all this to your attention, because it is helpful if people who have strong opinions on different subjects make themselves aware of the statistics because often there is misinformation which reinforces false claims.

Guns in schools

Since the topic of arming teachers is in the news a quick look at some statistics would be helpful. 22% of women in the US have a gun license and there are 3.2 million K thru 12 teachers in the US and 76% are female so it could be concluded that there are over 500,000 female teachers in the K thru 12 system in the country who have a gun license. Since there are about 100,000 public schools that would be 5 female teachers per school who have a gun license. Add in the male teachers and you get 2 more licensed gun owner per school. Half of the people working in public schools are not teachers and so that would mean 12 licensed gun owner per school. The argument says that it would be a deterrent if soft targets like schools had trained gun users on campus. It would be interesting to find out how many school employees would volunteer to carry their guns in school and offer them additional training and pay to do so.

Racist wall

The government has been building a wall along the California/Mexico border since 1994 and it was accelerated with the passage of the Secure Fence Act of 2006 which was approved by the House 283 to 138 and in the Senate by 80 to 19. The Trump administration is proposing to repair the barrier in some places and replace it in others. - The federal government began work Wednesday on replacing border wall in California, the first wall contract awarded in the Trump administration outside of eight prototypes that were built last year in San Diego. Many officials in California say this is racist.

Gun control

In 2013 a bill was introduced in the senate to ban assault weapons and it was defeated by a vote of 60 to 40. At that time the democrats controlled the senate with 55 democrats and one independent. The vote was 44 republicans against, 15 democrats against and one independent against. There are an estimated 10 to 15 million assault rifles in the country and there was a ban on these weapons for ten years from 1994 to 2004 and not one of these weapons was collected by the government. They did not try to collect these guns because the back lash would have been political suicide. For those who are anti-gun consider this possibility. Say anti-abortion people want to ban abortions the day before delivery. The fear is that if that is allowed the next step will be a week before delivery. Gun advocates feel if the government wants to collect one type of gun the next step is to collect other guns. If the country could agree to ban assault weapons what would be done with the 10 million that are already in the hands of the public? If by some miracle these guns could be kept safe, would a potential mass killer change his mind because he could not get an assault rifle?

Post card taxes

Under the new tax plan estimates say that 90% of people will use the standard deduction of $24,000 rather than itemize deductions. For these people the dream of filing a simple tax form will become a reality. The most common reasons for itemizing is to deduct mortgage interest and property taxes and it takes a lot of house to bring those two deductions up to $24,000. In most areas of the country this means a $350,000 mortgage and that is limited to about 10% of home owners and using bank income ratios to receive a loan means an income of over $80,000. Here is the tax calculation for a married couple with no children. Income $80,000 Less standard deduction $24,000 Taxable income $56.000 Tax due at 12% $6,720 There it is. The long awaited post card tax return. For those with dependents it requires more info to collect the earned income credit and the child tax credit.

Russian ads

The FBI report on Russian interference in the election says that half the ads appeared before the election and were designed to promote Trump and the other half which appeared after the election and were designed to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the election. “During the election, they were trying to create discord between Americans, most of it directed against Clinton. After the election you saw Russian-tied groups and organizations trying to undermine President Trump’s legitimacy. While there is no direct evidence that the ads affected the outcome of the election they were certainly successful in casting doubt on the results of the election.

Gun training

If you want to carry your own hand gun then follow this procedure. Fill out an application and take it to the sheriff’s office Get finger printed Take a gun training class In 30 days you get your permit with an average cost of $200. Take paper work to the gun dealer and submit to a back ground check Purchase gun ….a glock cost about $500. This must be renewed every five years with the application and training course. Or you can go on the street in Minneapolis and purchase a similar gun for $200. If we were able to ban the purchase of fire arms throughout the country we would have roughly the same compliance that we have with illegal drugs. Most honest people would follow the law and dishonest people would ignore the law but the cost of street guns would go up.

Lock-down

When it comes to terrorist activity, it seems the country is always reacting instead of pro-acting. The recent shooting in Florida illustrates the point. In the high schools where I go the doors to the classrooms are kept closed and locked. The idea being that in an emergency you may not have time to lock the door. Lock-down drills are a regular part of the training. At no time did anyone ever explain what to do when you are in lock down and the fire alarm goes off. My guess is, that until now no one ever thought about it.

Interest

When most commentators talk about Trump they spend an inordinate amount of time on his personality which of course is interesting and as they say not presidential. They would be wise to look more closely as how his business experience is affecting his policies. Most businessmen understand that you have to spend money to make money and most also borrow as opposed to spending their own cash. This is even more evident in the real estate business as every homeowner knows. Trump wants to go into debt to kick the economy into high gear and then recoup the investment through growth. Even if the economy reaches 4% or even 5% GDP the growth will offset the debt but it will also bring back inflation which in turn will raise interest rates which in turn will raise the cost of servicing the debt. In other words the growth will cover the increase cost of government but it will not cover the increase cost of interest on the debt. Eventually some cuts in spending will be necessary and that means entitlements like social security. The government currently spends about $270 billion per year paying the interest on the debt and this low because government policies over the past couple of decades have artificially kept rates low. As the government begins to unload the stimulus money it used during the past ten years it will put upward pressure on interest rates and that will use up any excess revenue from growth.

Unions and the court

The Supreme Court is about to rule on a case that will have a profound effect on public unions like the teachers union. In the upcoming case of Janus v public unions the concept of right to work is at stake. If Janus wins, individuals will have the right to refuse paying union dues. It basically means an end to forced union membership. This happened in Wisconsin 7 years ago and since that time more than half of the teachers dropped out of the union. A similar vote came up a couple of years ago but Judge Scalia died suddenly and the court ruled 4 to 4 and the union won. With the new judge Gorsuch expected to side against the union the law will change. Many people feel that the importance of a presidential election is not just the new president but who may be appointed to the court. Membership in the Wisconsin Education Association Council is down 58 percent since the 2011 enactment of Act 10, which ended collective bargaining over benefits for public employees, including teachers unions, according to the John K. MacIver Institute for Public Policy. “Before the passage of Act 10, WEAC had almost 100,000 members. Today, the union stands at just 36,000.

Work force

People in Europe have seen their birthrates decline and many in Eastern Europe are not interested in bringing in immigrants so the governments of these countries offer incentives for natives to have more children. In Estonia they have something called, ““mother’s salary”. A woman who has a baby receives up to $1,500 per month for 14 months which is substantial in a country where the average salary is $650 per month. Then the child is eligible for nursery school and then pre-kinder garden for $40 per month after which they attend free public schools. In the United States we are not faced with this problem because we allow immigration. There are 43 million Americans living here who were not born here and 400,000 new immigrants enter each year. In addition to that there are 20 million people born here who could work but choose not to work. With this work force the GDP can grow. It is estimated that it takes one million new jobs to maintain a one percent increase in GDP. This is in addition to the almost 2 million jobs needed to maintain the current growth rate. Higher wages will encourage those not seeking work to join the work force. With these extra workers there will be less pressure on wage/price inflation.

Market drop

The big market collapse that occurred during my career happened in 1987 when the Dow sank 23% in one day. That was when I found out the value of having an agent to work with since later it was revealed that those without agents got out of the market at a much higher rate than those with agents. The people who stayed in the market and did not panic recouped their losses by listening to their agents. In 2008 the market dropped 7% because of the housing bubble but it came back strong. This past week the market dropped 10% which experts say is a long overdue correction. Many news outlets are predicting bad times ahead and thus encouraging people to get out and take the loss. Once again many will ride out the storm and recapture their losses but many others follow the news and lose.

Guilty

The lyrics from an old country song say, “no one knows what goes on behind closed doors” and this is relevant in today’s news. I once had a supervisor Arnold I. who worked for me. He was great at his job and a good father to his children and one night he went home and killed himself. I was astonished as this was the last thing I though Arnold would ever do. Many times in recent years when terrorist have been exposed the family, friends and neighbors are all surprised since this was so out of character. In today’s world cases of abuse against women are common and once again people are often unaware of this hidden side to people. A few weeks ago Nancy Pelosi was so surprised when allegation of sexual harassment came out against Representative Conyers that she called him an icon and refused to believe the charges until the evidence became overwhelming. This past week White House Chief of Staff Kelly refused to accept the fact that his close friend Rob Porter was a wife beater. When someone is accused of a crime it is natural for friends and family to stand by the individual until the facts come out. This is especially true if the person had shown no signs of such behavior in the past but in today’s world of partisan politics there is no room for such wait a see. If the guy is in the other party he is guilty from day one. History is replete with cases where the accusations were false but the damage was done. Like the man says, where do I go to get my reputation back? You don’t.

Medicare cost

There is an ad on TV asking the government not to cut Medicare and this surprised me because Trump has stated he will not touch Medicare. I did not see that ad during the Obama years, when Medicare payments to providers was cut by 10%. In 2012 Medicare expenses were estimated to be $7.5 trillion over ten years and these were cut by $750 billion. In theory this would not cut any benefits to patience but in practice many feel that services will be curtailed to make up for the loss. The money that was saved was transferred to Obamacare to keep the ten year cost under one trillion and it came in at $848 billion. Two years later the cost estimate was over $2 trillion. This is the way most government programs become law. They low ball the cost to get the bill passed and then the cost goes up. The prime example is Medicare. 1. Jan 1, 1993 - At its start, in 1966, Medicare cost $3 billion. The House Ways and Means Committee estimated that Medicare would cost only about $12 billion by 1990 (a figure that included an allowance for inflation). This was a supposedly "conservative" estimate. But in 1990 Medicare actually cost $107

Censor

News people today are saying that the giant tech companies are the new robber barons because companies like Amazon, Facebook and Google have monopoly control. Of particular concern they say is Facebook since polls show that 45% of Americans get their news from Facebook. They contend that Facebook can tweak the news and slant stories in a particular direction and this they say is dangerous. In the early years of the last century and up until the middle of the century people got their news from newspapers. Each day hundreds of stories would come across the AP and UP wires and local newspapers would select those stories that they felt were most important and print those. Then later when TV came along and people started getting their news that way, the three major networks had a monopoly and they selected stories from the New York Times and aired those. Now today we have social media and people are getting their news that way. The point is that the news we see has always been filtered before we see it and throughout history or at least the last 100 years most of this news has been center left. The one new thing is talk radio which tends to be more to the right. Technically only the government can censor but news companies have been selecting what we see and hear for many years and this is type of censorship.

FBI

With the recent investigations regarding Trump and the FBI it is best to wait until more information is available before drawing any conclusions but it brings up an important question. What happens if the FBI runs afoul of the law as happened when J. Edgar Hoover was in charge. It was only after his death that the extent of his unscrupulous activities became public. After that certain procedures were installed to prevent similar problems from arising. The FBI director was not to talk directly to the president. “Initial communications between the Department and the White House concerning pending or contemplated criminal investigations or cases will involve only the Attorney General or the Deputy Attorney General.” When Trump called Comey to a private dinner meeting he was not following these new rules and when Comey agreed to the dinner meeting he was not following the rules. It is possible that Trump being an outsider did not know about the rules regarding how he should communicate with the FBI head but Comey probably knew. In either case it demonstrates why the rules were put in place to avoid all of this controversy.

MN healthcare

Nine states including Minnesota are now considering laws regarding forcing people to buy health insurance. Depending on how they enforce this it may be more effective than the Obamacare law which allowed people to make two misstatements on their income tax return to avoid the penalty and thus be without healthcare. The people these laws are targeting are low to middle income and mostly single taxpayers. Last year MN taxpayers kicked in to help those on MNSURE and these amounts will likely increase if these new laws are enacted. Now as many as 120,000 Minnesotans could start seeing big drops on their health insurance premiums: around $310 million in taxpayer money will be spent throughout 2017 to give 25 percent discounts. That comes to $2,660 per person and if that represents 25% then the total cost per person was $10,660 per year or $888 per month and that will be difficult for low income people. There will probably be some sliding scale based on income with some paying less and some paying more.

Market

Most people, including myself, find the stock market to be a mystery. Why things go up and down seems to have no logical reason but some people are paid to tell you why the market moves in these mysterious ways. Experts say that the recent rise in the market is the result of profits but yesterday’s drop defies that reasoning. Take one example, Apple. Apple announced the highest quarterly earnings in the history of the company of $88 billion and its stock dropped causing a loss in market capitalization of $84 billion dollars all in one day. The company earned $88 billion and its stock went down $84 billion. Go figure!

greatest

I just finished Tom Brokaw’s book, “The Greatest Generation”. It is a compilation of interviews he conducted with a cross section of people who lived and fought during WW2. While the people in the book came from all walks of life they shared some common characteristics many of which differ from today’s society. First off they all relied on their faith during the tough times of the depression and war. Many said this was the single thing that gave them hope during the darkest hours. Second they believed in family loyalty. Family was the back bone of their inner strength. Families lived together in the same area, children, parents, grandparents, uncles and aunts all helping each other. Third, they believed in being responsible for their own actions. When bad economic times hit the last thing on their minds was filing for bankruptcy. Neighbors and relatives came together to help. Fourth, they had a strong work ethic. Many lived on farms or came from farms where they knew the value of hard work. Finally they were patriotic. They believed in flag and country and the American way. Times were tough but they always felt that the future would be better.