Wednesday, October 31, 2018
GM
In 1953 GM President Charles Wilson famously said, as GM goes, so goes the Nation. So what happened that 50 plus years late GM went bankrupt. Many management mistakes were made over the years trying to maintain the status quo and just looking at the bottom line but many of the problems started when GM decided to be a good corporation and take care of its employees. Their reasons were not altruistic but predicated on protecting the dividend by not having a strike. To satisfy the unions they offered up legacy benefits that years later became to costly to meet and caused them to lose out to foreign competition. GM has 10 retired workers for each currently employed worker and the cost of these retirees is $2,000 per car. Companies like Toyota have very few retirees and thus low legacy cost. GM started it's downhill course in the early 70's and hung on until the recession of 2008 and that was the straw that broke the camels back.
Donovan
The forgotten case of Labor Secretary Donovan. He was accused of fraud and grand larceny and the court case lasted 8 months. The jury was out for just ten hours and acquitted him on the first vote. It was a sham trial and the jury knew it.
The jury deliberated barely 10 hours over two days. One juror, Caesar Brown, said later that little discussion was needed and that just one ballot was required to find each defendant not guilty. When the last verdict was announced at 4:42 P.M. by the jury forewoman, Rosa Milligan, cheers and applause enveloped the courtroom. Most of the 12 jurors stood and applauded as they watched the defendants, their relatives and defense lawyers shouting with joy, embracing and slapping one another's backs
When the trial ended Donovan famously said, "Which office do I go to to get my reputation back?
Tuesday, October 30, 2018
Looking for food
Mortality rates are skyrocketing; one public service after another is collapsing; triple-digit inflation has left more than 70 percent of the population in poverty; an unmanageable crime wave keeps people locked indoors at night; shoppers have to stand in line for hours to buy food; babies die in large numbers for lack of simple, inexpensive medicines and equipment in hospitals, as do the elderly and those suffering from chronic illnesses.
This is Venezuela, home to 32 million people. Over 2 million have fled the country into neighboring Columbia and Peru many just trying to find food.
Google is in the news because of sexual harassment charges against some of its top executives and employees are rightly upset but employees are also concerned about Googles business activities. Because of employee concerns Google has decided not to help the Pentagon with its drone program but will continue to help China to censer the Internet. This leaves some people tying to figure out if Google is showing a preference to China over the US.
Sunday, October 28, 2018
Prejudice
The bombing at the Jewish Synagogue is in the news because of the total number of dead. During my life attacks against Jews have been on the decline but they still represent two-thirds of all crimes against religion. They are normally carried out by individuals and usually involve only a few victims. Prejudice against Jews has been going on for thousands of years and continued in the United States. Things are much improved from the days when Jews were not allowed to join private clubs and Jewish doctors were not allowed to practice in general hospitals but there is still work to be done as is the case with all prejudice.
Friday, October 26, 2018
Legal pot
Canada has just made pot legal throughout the whole country. Some say they did not look at what happened in Colorado.
In the years since, Colorado has seen an increase in marijuana related traffic deaths, poison control calls, and emergency room visits. The marijuana black market has increased in Colorado, not decreased. And, numerous Colorado marijuana regulators have been indicted for corruption.
In 2012, we were promised funds from marijuana taxes would benefit our communities, particularly schools. Dr. Harry Bull, the Superintendent of Cherry Creek Schools, one of the largest school districts in the state, said, "So far, the only thing that the legalization of marijuana has brought to our schools has been marijuana."
The upside is tax revenue.
In fiscal year 2016, marijuana tax revenue resulted in $156,701,018. The total tax revenue for Colorado was $13,327,123,798, making marijuana only 1.18% of the state's total tax revenue.
As an interesting aside, many proponents of clean air are also pushing to legalize pot
McCain
Many people are so upset with Trump it is having and adverse effect on their lives. Senator John McCain, a war hero and candidate for president asked that Trump not attend his funeral. Many who are resentful failed to realized that resentment is like taking poison and expecting someone else to get sick. Resentment can even lead to mental or physical illness. McCain would have been better off if he had traded his resentment for forgiveness. For those whose lives are being negatively effected by Trump, remember that each day when you awake, you can choose what kind of day you will have. Will you be forgiving or resentful. Is any politician worth a bad day.
Ethanol
The energy policy act of 1992 was the law that accelerated the building of corn ethanol plants. Today there are over 200 plants producing 16 billion gallons per year which represents 10% of auto fuel. 40% of all corn is used to produce ethanol and it is highly subsidized by the government.
This was seen as a good way to use renewable fuel for transportation but the cost benefit predictions did not materialize and now the government feels it must keep them operating.
Many feel the government is making the same mistake with electric cars.
Foreign aid
President Trump has threatened to cut off funds to Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador but the question is does he have the authority. Experts say no. Should he? Most of the money goes to a few wealthy people and some trickles down to help the poor in hospitals and schools. There are 30 million people in those three countries and the aid is $180 million dollars or $5 per year per person. If all of that money was evenly distributed they would not miss it even if it stopped. Many feel that sending money to these countries just contributes to the corruption. This is typical of what happens when the US sends money to third world countries.
Did someone in our government really believe that $5 per year per person was going to make a difference in the lives of everyday people or did they know in advance it was money for the rich? Where does all this corruption begin and end?
Thursday, October 25, 2018
Clock
On Sept 14, 2015 a young man brought a homemade clock to school. It resembled a bomb and the teacher reported this to the principal and the clock was confiscated and the young man was taken into custody, fingerprinted, mug shot and then released to his parents. Since he was a Muslim and his name was Mohammad the school was accused of being prejudice. All charges were dropped and then his family sued the city for $15 million but the suit was dismissed. Later that year he and his family moved to Qatar where they now reside. They say the reason the left is to get away from accusations of terrorism.
This case illustrates how common sense can prevent such reaction. The student brought a small box containing a clock with a series of wires attached to it two days after the forth anniversary of 9/11. The school with the zero based policies in effect over reacted. The law suit added fuel to some of the rumors about the illegitimacy of affair. Finally his family was tarred for life because of this apparent innocent activity.
Speech
Experts on the First Amendment tell us that freedom of speech is most important when it includes speech we don't like. Now we are told that if certain words are spoken they could incite someone to turn to violence so we must not say those words. If the line between speech and violence becomes blurred then free speech suffers. To say that speech is responsible for violence leads to restricting speech.
Tuesday, October 23, 2018
Anima
Being on Face Book is something relatively new to me and I was taken a back by all of the birthday greetings I received. As a way a thanking everyone, I have decided to reveal a secret side of my life. My favorite psychologist is Carl Jung and Jung says a man has a feminine soul which he called the anima. He did this so as not to confuse the feminine with female. For the first 40 years of my life, I was unaware of my anima but these past forty years I have gotten to know her quite well. I visit daily with her and these are the best of times. She has a name Liberty Rhythm. Liberty because she is the feminine part of freedom and rhythm because that word belongs in the spiritual side of life. Even the spelling tells you it is not of this world. The best way to explain my relationship with this beautiful lady is to use the words of the poet from a song that I like and it goes like this.
It must have been cold there in my shadow,
To never have sunlight on your face.
You were content to let me shine, that's your way.
You always walked a step behind.
So I was the one with all the glory,
While you were the one with all the strength.
A beautiful face without a name for so long.
A beautiful smile to hide the pain.
Did you ever know that you're my hero,
And everything I would like to be?
I can fly higher than an eagle,
For you are the wind beneath my wings.
It might have appeared to go unnoticed,
But I've got it all here in my heart.
I want you to know I know the truth, of course I know it.
I would be nothing without you.
lottery tax
As I watch the mania unfold around the lottery, I am reminded that this is just one more sin tax. It goes along with taxes on gasoline, alcohol, tobacco and now pot. I live only 8 miles from a casino and there are bus loads of people heading out there every day and these are mostly middle to lower income people. The one saving grace is that the lottery like the casino is a voluntary tax.
Monday, October 22, 2018
LNG for Germany
Here is a news item released today that got very little attention
BERLIN—Chancellor Angela Merkel has offered government support to efforts to open up Germany to U.S. gas, a key concession to President Trump as he tries to loosen Russia’s grip on Europe’s largest energy market.
Immigrants and foreign aid
The population of the four Central American countries who are sending people to the US is 44 million. Gallop conducted a poll in 2012 and found that 16% of these people wanted to come to the United States. This represents 7 million people. As a nation with a history of concern for immigrants and a nation that wants to help, how many of these people should be invited to live in the US. There are several million more that live on the islands in the Caribbean and are struggling daily to survive.
The Obama administration mobilized Congress to approve a $750 million appropriations bill to provide assistance for the three governments of El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala — which make up what’s known as Central America’s “Northern Triangle” — to improve security, promote peace, and tackle gang violence.
Like foreign aid in general it is difficult to find out who got the money. All too often the money stays in the pockets of the leadership. The US finds itself the position of having to pay to keep immigrants out.
Sunday, October 21, 2018
Journalist
The ongoing investigation into the the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi and how it is being handled is reminiscent of the case of Gary Powers. Powers was the U-2 pilot who was shot down over Russian on May 1. 1960. This plane flew at 70,000 feet and was difficult to see and even more difficult to shot down. When it was first reported President Eisenhower said it was a weather reconnaissances plane that flew off course when the pilot passed out. On May 7th it was revealed that the pilot had been captured along with parts of the plane and on May 11th the president conceded that it was a spy plane. The US had no intentions of fessing up to spying until they were forced to some 11 days after the event.
The Saudis got caught with their hand in the cookie jar so they resorted to subterfuge and are now paying the price of the cover up. It is usually governments that cover up. Individual groups do not care and often times brag over their misdeeds as was the case when journalist Daniel Pearl was publicly decapitated by terrorist in Pakistan.
Saturday, October 20, 2018
Voting trends
Trump has caused a lot of turmoil among the electorate and one of the more surprising changes may cause an upheaval in the conventional wisdom pertaining to how demographics will effect future elections. Recent polls show Blacks and Hispanics moving toward voting republican. These minorities see their personal financial picture improving as not just jobs are more plentiful but wages among the lower income groups are increasing. Experts say that if 20% of blacks vote republican it can turn an election. Hispanics seem even more inclined
to consider voting republican. Only 12% of Blacks and Hispanic voted republican in the 2016 election but recent polls show these groups trending toward 20% republican. If this continues the long term demographic that predicted the demise of the Republican Party may not happen.
Thursday, October 18, 2018
Petrodollars
At this time when tensions with Saudi Arabia are running high it is critical to review why the relationship between our two countries is important. When the oil fields were first developed the US committed to protecting the Saudis from outside enemies with the understanding that they would only sell oil for dollars and thus the term petrodollars. Because the Saudis kept their promise the US dollar remained the premier currency around the world. Even though today we are not as dependent on Saudi oil the use of petrodollars helps the US keep it's dominance in world financial matters. Let us not be too quick to sever relations over the killing of this reporter as there is much more at stake.
Saudi Arabia
Because of the possible death of a Saudi journalist some are suggesting we cancel all arms deals with the Saudis. The fact that they would buy arms from other countries is a factor but more important is that when they use arms from the US they need spare parts from the US and this gives the US leverage on how they use those arms. There will be other ways to show the Saudis that the US does not approve of their actions assuming they are responsible for the journalist's death.
Saudis
With the current situation in Saudi Arabia, regarding the disappearance of a journalist, the US finds itself in the position that was common during the cold war. Often times our anti-communist allies were behaving in despicable ways but we sided with them because they were against the communist. Our representative to the United Nations Mrs. Kirkpatrick said it best when she said, he may be a dictator but he is our dictator. Our big enemy in the Middle East is Iran and the Saudis are on our side in this regard. The US and the Saudis have worked with Israel in order to reign in the power of Iran and this relationship could be in jeopardy if the US sanctions the Saudis. The US chose not to sanction the Saudis when it was discovered that 15 of the 19 who bombed the world trade center buildings on 9/11 were from Saudi Arabia. The question now is should they be sanctioned over the death of this journalist.
Monday, October 15, 2018
Trump change
Donald Trump is an amazing person both in a good way and a bad way. He is constantly opposed by bureaucrats who dislike change and fear for their jobs, never Trumper republicans who dislike his tweets, democrats who are beside themselves with anger for having lost the election and the national press who predicted a Hilary victory. No matter what the criticism is or where it comes from he is a counter puncher and is usually faulted for fighting back. Through it all he seems to enjoy being president and never stops. He is like the energizer bunny. He just keeps going. He is changing government for better or for worse but people don't like change and they are fighting back to maintain the status quo. If there is one phrase that best describes the Trump Presidency it is, he is not presidential. His enemies knew that during the campaign but it didn't concern them because they assumed he would never be elected. In fact early on they enjoyed the ratings bump.
Sunday, October 14, 2018
Think news
Trump gathers news people around him like flies around honey and for good reason. He is notorious for making controversial statements and this means news. This week news moved to a higher level when Kenya West visited the White House. West went on a five minute rant and Trump stood by, somewhat amazed, and listened. Since Trump didn't speak the news could not report on any off the cuff remarks but that did not stop them. One prominent host on CNN decided to report on what he thought Trump was thinking and it was not flattering toward Trump. Apparently Trump can make news without saying anything.
Positive thinking
There is an old adage that says, we can learn from the past. Back in the 50's the idea of the power of positive thinking was coined by Norman Vincent Peal. There were a number of books written espousing this idea and Nepoleon Hill said it best when he pronounced, what the mind can conceive and believe it can achieve.
There are ministers on TV today preaching what is called prosperity gospel and it is the modern day equivalent of positive thinking with the addition of the concept that God wants you to have a good life.
Modern science understands this power and offers examples of how a good attitude helps a person recover from illness, helps others succeed in endeavors that they believe in and leads some to accomplish physical feats beyond their normal abilities.
Anger
Polls show that many Trump voters wanted change and they certainly got what they wanted. Trump has turned the republican party up-side-down and that has caused the democrats to make drastic changes. Trump is called un-presidential by one side and unconventional by the other side. As an outsider he is not owning to either party and the establishment is in turmoil. Some news outlets are equally disturbed as they are 24/7 Trump. Those who are anti-Trump spend a lot of time discussing his personality and those on the other side talk about his policies. Both sides say anger will be driving people to vote. It is well known that people are actively opposed and passively for, so turnout is based on anger. That just about sums up where we are today and since democrats are more angry they should have the best turnout.
Tuesday, October 9, 2018
Net pay
You can skip the statistics and go down to the summery.
Family of four with one wage earner at $15 per hour or $30,000 per year.
Gross income $30,000
Less standard deduction $24,000
Taxable income $6,000
Tax due $600
Child tax credit $4,000
Tax refund $3,400
Earned income tax credit $4,248
Gross income $30,000
Less payroll tax $2,295
Plus tax child tax credit $3,400
Plus EITC $4,285
Take home pay $35,390
Family of four with one wage earner at $30 per hour or $60,000 per year
Gross income $60,000
Less standard deduction $24,000
Taxable income $36,000
Tax due $3,600
Child tax credit $4,000
Tax refund $400
EITC 0
Gross income $60,000
Less payroll tax $4,590
Take home pay $55,410
In addition the $30,000 family is eligible for a $7,500 subsidy for health care and other various state and federal benefits. In MN things like energy assistance, head start, WIC, SNAP and school lunch. These added to other assorted benefits can add another $5,000 of income.
Summery.
Family one takes earning $30,000 takes home $47,800 and family two earning $60,000 takes home $55,410. Note that neither family pays any federal or state income tax.
Sunday, October 7, 2018
IRS
This past week the NY Times had an eight page spread on how Trump inherited his money and the many ways he avoided paying taxes. The story didn't create much interest and kind of just went away. There are many ways in which the IRS can be confusing. Back in the early 70's I purchased a business and in order to file taxes you must differentiate between buildings and land when you fill out the depreciation schedule. It is to my advantage to put as much value on the building, which can be depreciated and it is better for the IRS to value the land since it cannot be depreciated. I asked them how I should split the value and was told that I should put down what I thought was right and if they didn't agree they would challenge. I was fortunate because the land was on two separate lots and the building on one lot. I checked the taxable value of the empty lot and used that to value on the lot the building was on.
Saturday, October 6, 2018
McCarthy
I recall watching the McCarthy hearings on TV and they were, in retrospect, the beginning of the end to McCarthyism. The spectacle of accusing people of un-American activities based on what they did in their youth was eye opening and taught me to understand that youthful indiscretions should not be the measure of a man's life. Many people were deemed guilty not based on evidence but rather by accusations, hearsay an innuendo. The primary targets of such suspicions were government employees, those in the entertainment industry, educators and labor union activists. Many reasonable people felt it was necessary to uncover communist, especially those in government but it was the extremism as witnessed in the hearings that awakened people to the injustice of it all. When it seemed that the presumption of innocence was being trampled upon, many were taken a back, and demanded that McCarthy be stopped and he was.
Amazon stock
Amazon stock has dropped over $100 per share since they announced raising wages to $15 per hour. Since they have almost 500 million shares outstanding that means a loss of $50 billion dollars in less than a month. This represents the tension between stockholders and employees. If the stock comes back in the next few months it means just a temporary set back but if it stays down or continues to decline it will cause other companies to keep wages low. If Amazon had raised prices to cover this loss the damage to stock would likely have been less dramatic. If Amazon customers had to pay more they wouldn't like it but it is not likely they would go somewhere else as there is a loyalty to the brand much like Apple. Companies will be raising prices to keep stock values up and investors happy.
Court
The country has undergone some dramatic changes in the past ten years as represented by the way the senate deals with Supreme Court nominees.
Justice Sotomayer was confirmed for the court in 2009 at the age of 55. The vote was 68 to 31 including 9 republicans. She made a statement that might be treated differently in today's climate. She said:
In several speeches, Sotomayor had suggested that a “wise Latina woman” might reach a better conclusion in a case than a white man, and said a judge’s “experience and heritage” might play a role in the courtroom as well.
Thursday, October 4, 2018
Bezos Marx
Amazon has decided to offer $15 an hour to all employees and that is a good start but there is more they can do. In the United States they have 250,000 full time employee and 100,000 part time. If the full time people work 40 hours and the part time 20 hours they have 600 million man-hours per year. If they payed them an additional $15 and hour it would cost the company $9 billion annually. Sales this year will be about $200 billion so if they raised their prices by 4.5% they could do this.
Bezos could be another Henry Ford. Ford was the guy who discredited Karl Marx when he started paying $5 per day which was enough to allow his employees to purchase a new Ford which cost $250. The workers were able to purchase what they made. Marx said this would never happen.
Amazon employee would spend a good portion of their new found money on Amazon products.
Another option is that Bezos could give part of his $150 billion personal fortune to the employees. He recently gave $2 billion to charity. Charity begins at home.
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