Ukraine

This week the New York Times printed a long story about Ukraine. In the story they pointed out that the United States has 14 location in Ukraine where CIA experts are training Ukrainians on how to use complicate US supplied war materials. This is, once again, reminiscent of Vietnam. In May 1961, JFK authorized sending an additional 500 Special Forces troops and military advisers to assist the pro Western government of South Vietnam. This was four years before the US sent troops to Vietnam. Is there no one who will stand up and tell the American people that there is a solution that does not require one side to win and that is a negotiated peace agreement.

Alcoholism

Prior to 1996 alcoholism was considered a disability by social security. This resulted in many people living on the street getting a check each month. At that time the rules stated the check had to be mailed to a specific address where the recipient could get the money. It was a common practice for homeless people to list the address of the liquor store for check purposes. Once a month they would go to the store and the store owner would subtract what was owed on their liquor bill and give them the rest if there was anything left.

Drugs

For many years people used recreational cocaine like they did alcohol and it gave a high like alcohol. In the 1970's someone discovered that you could heat up cocaine and smoke it and get a quicker high but it didn't last long so you had to have another hit. Drug offenses account for 350,000 in prison and remains the defining feature of the prison system. Combined with a 115 month average time for crack and 87 months for cocaine this disparity results in more Blacks spending more time in prison. Overall time for marijuana is 41 months but that is for dealers. The number in for using marijuana has declined from 2,172 in 2014 to 145 in 2021. 18% of prisoners committed their crime to obtain money for drugs. To achieve equity either the penalty for cocaine should increase or the penalty for crack should decrease. Some say that all drugs should be decriminalized or even legalize

AI

They now have this AI thing that is open to questions but it has hit a glitch. Apparently it shows George Washington as a Black man. I think I have diagnosed the problem. The person behind the scene who is putting in the answers is some computer whiz kid. The best person in charge of these answers would be a divorced father with three kids who lost his job because he was stealing from the company and is being audited by the IRS. They need someone with real life experience who would know instinctively that Washington was a WASP.

Mortgages

Now that the 2008 mortgage crisis is behind us, we can review what happened with clearer eyes. The mortgage business is mathematically predictable. You can evaluate the risk of offering a mortgage by looking at the potential borrowers credit history, their income and how long they have worked at their current job and the down payment. Follow that up with rules like how much of their income would be used for the mortgage payment and come up with a reasonable risk/return factor. This is how mortgage banks operated successfully for many years. This led to the hiring of math people to expand on this risk/return business. They decided that mortgages could be put into groups depending on the risk/return factor and the risk of the whole group could be determined. The next was to get the credit rating companies involved to oversee how the risk was determined. Once this was established this group could be sold to investors who were aware of the risk. Once a rating was issued then the buyers would know the risk/return. So far so good. The demand for these packs of mortgages called tranches grew rapidly because at the time CD's were paying one percent and these tranches paid 5% or higher depending on risk. Since they had the approval of the rating companies they could be sold to large investors like pension plans and the race was on. Not only was everyone making a good return but they were providing the American dream of home ownership. The push for more mortgages went to the extremes and people who should never have qualified for a loan were getting loans and it was only a matter of time until the whole thing came crashing down. Even the rating companies were corrupted in their zeal to get more business. Then the company that protected the rating companies got involved as everyone at ever step of the way was getting fees. Greed overcame common sense. In a free market economy it is the responsibility of the government to set some basic rules and more importantly to clamp down on fraud. The SEC was mesmerized by these new investments and fell asleep at the switch. There was failure all around.

Trump

Trump's rise to power in 2016, came as a complete surprise to the establishment. For many years the journalist, the big donors and the insiders determined who would be the nominees. They didn't understand that Trump's strategy was to run against the system and they responded with incomprehension and to some extent rage. The lobbyist who determined policy, the big donors who bought off the politicians, the entrenched bureaucrats and the press who had the power to make or break campaigns were all part of the cabal that ran the country. They did not want to attack Trump on policy because it might shed light on the monopoly they had in running the country, so they went after him with name calling. He was an evil, the second coming of Hitler or as Hillary said, a racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic and Islamophobic overall despicable person. The press and the established politicians spent their time railing against Trump's remarks and failed to see that he had tapped into the problems that the average voter was well aware. It was a common feeling that most people who went into politics did so with good intentions but soon found out that if you didn't tow the line you would be challenged in the primary and your funds would be cut off. It was not unusual to hear a typical middle income blue collar type say that all politicians are crooks. These same people saw their good jobs shipped overseas and they were resentful and Trump tapped into that resentment. The in crowd still is not aware of Trump's popularity and its never about the issues but about the threat to democracy.

Arrest

The headline says crime has declined significantly over the past year according to the FBI. Statistics being what they are should cause a deeper look into what has happened. First off if someone is arrested and not charged that is not counted. Police over that last few years have arrested fewer because there is a lot of paper work involved and they see the criminal back on the street. Second many times felony charges are reduced to misdemeanors. If you want to see a serious decrease in crime just change the concept of qualified immunity. Under current law it is difficult to sue a police officer. There is talk to change this and then police officers would have to buy private insurance to protect themselves from law suits. Police are hesitant to go into high crime areas for fear they will be charged with using excessive force. It is better just to avoid confrontation. Take away qualified immunity and officers will be even more concerned about attempting to arrest. If people smash and grab they are not arrested so arrest numbers are down. If people are living on the streets and dealing and using drugs they are not arrested so arrests are down.