Clinton presidency

Insiders are now reporting that big time Republican supporters are backing Clinton. She is seen by them as the pro-business candidate. Will this mean that Sanders supporters will vote for Trump. If the middle and lower income people vote will they turn away from the establishment and line up behind Trump. This has got to be the most interesting presidential campaign of my lifetime. Clinton is now viewed as stronger on defense and cozier with Wall Street than Trump. Trump is also moving the Republican Party away from its standard positions on social issues such as abortion and gay rights. Many people who have always voted for a particular party now find themselves in a dilemma. The black vote is the only block that seems to be carved in stone. The young are turning away from Clinton and even women are showing some hesitancy in lining up behind Clinton. Clinton will likely win the presidency but both parties will have been changed in important ways and I see this as a good thing. It appears that Clinton may be a third Bush term as opposed to a third Obama term but either way it means an expansion of the federal government.

Campaign contributions

Sanders is coming after Clinton because of speeches she gave to the big banks and her defense is that she never changed a vote because of the money she received for these speeches. This may satisfy most voters but not those who watch the inner workings of congress. One outstanding example happened during the Savings and Loans scandals of the 80’s. Recall that many S and L’s were in the process of going broke and the government wanted to shut them down but the money in the fund used to protect consumers from losses was running out and congress was needed to approve more funds. There were many S and L owners who were big donors to a number of senators and one of these was a man name Keating. He owned many S & L’s now called banks and made large donations to five senators who were in control of the fund used to protect consumers. Keating was making a lot of money keeping these failing banks open so he didn’t want the congress to approve more funds since they could then shut down the banks that were losing money. When the meeting came to approve the additional funds, five senators showed up at the meeting and while they did not say a word everyone knew they were there to postpone any action. The committee decided not to approve the needed funds and these banks stayed active for another year during which time the cost to pay off the losses to protect the consumers increased from 200 billion to 500 billion. These five senators just by their presence allowed this to happen and they can say that they never said a word to the committee. One of these five senators was John McCain and he later admitted that it was a mistake for him to attend that meeting. To prove that a politician allowed campaign contributions to affect governance is almost impossible but only a naïve person would believe that these donations are made for altruistic reasons.

Free money

People often wonder what happened to lottery winners but there is another group of winners that is rarely mentioned and those are the 480 members of the Shakopee Mdewakanton Tribe in Minnesota. Prior to building a casino on their land these people lived a meager life living mostly in broken down mobile homes with meager incomes. Now that Mystic Lake is booming each of these 480 receives $84,000 per month gambling proceeds. The Shakopee keep modest homes on the reservation, but nearly every driveway sports at least one luxury car. Tribal members usually have multiple homes and have been known to take vacation for months at a time. Many choose to take up expensive hobbies. They are big game hunters and breeders of thoroughbred horses. All of the children attend private schools. Members of the tribe are 99.5% unemployed and the long term question is what will their children do? Will they be deprived of the good feelings that come from earning your own way, the famous work ethic. The good education they are getting in the private schools should help them get jobs but will they want to work.

Trump-Clinton

As it looks more and more like a Clinton/Trump campaign the differences between the two become more and more stark. On policy Clinton has been pushed much further to the left by Sanders than she is comfortable with and Trump is a super liberal Republican which means that between the two of them the country will move left. This bodes well for Trump in the general. On a more personal note Trump is looking stronger than Clinton. He is a bombastic egotistical loud mouth but will change after he is assured of the nomination. Those who say a person cannot change and get away with it fail to understand that Trump has already done that since the Trump we have seen up to this time is not the real Trump. He will be like the guy who nobody likes who suddenly starts to look good by just saying a few nice things. With Clinton we have a dishonest, untrustworthy liar that will be buoyed up by demographics. The whole election will rest on turnout and this begs the question, will minorities be so turned off by her lack of openness that they will stay home and/or will Trump turn them on. Will Sanders young voters transfer to Clinton or will they get turned off and just stay home.

Pogo

Pogo the famous comic strip philosopher from times past said when talking about the federal government, “we have met the enemy and they is us”. The latest advice that the experts are giving to Donald Trump illustrates this. They say he must stop speaking off the cuff, stop tweeting, stop having town meetings and stop giving interviews. He must start listening to experts, writing out talking points and using the teleprompter to deliver his message. In other words he must become more like a regular politician. He must start feeding the Pablum to the great uninformed masses so that we can be led down the familiar path and keep those in power happy. Most people that follow the issues appreciate the fact that Trump says he will change the system but most also understand that one man cannot do this. We already see the powers coalescing around the stop Trump movement and this is evident in the amount of money spent against him, the various Republican Icons endorsing others and the super delegates. The same thing is happening with the Democrats as the DNC changes the debate structure to suit Clinton and the super delegates line up behind her. The little people on both sides are fired up but will they be enough to overcome the establishment?

Guns and murder

Gun control is not high on my list of priorities but I do believe that law abiding citizens should have the right to own a gun. The following indicates that the problem is guns in the hands of criminal and the drug business. If you live in Brazil and want to own a gun you are faced with the following. Right now, Brazil actually has tough gun laws. If you want to own a gun legally these are the requirements: - a fixed address. - proof of legitimate income. - no criminal record. - a mental health test. - proof you know how to handle a gun and shoot it. - evidence of why you need a gun. For example, a police report of an attack against you. Even if a prospective gun owner supplies all this information, the police can arbitrarily deny a request for a gun permit. The population of Brazil is 200 million vs the 320 million in the US yet Brazil had 60,000 murders almost all with guns in 2014 vs the US 11,000 murders with guns. Here is a quote: "Brazil doesn't have a gun problem. It has a problem of illegal guns in the hands of criminals, especially drug traffickers," he says. Another quote: Dr. Fabio Ataide, a judge in Natal who teaches criminology, says guns overwhelmingly kill young black men in Brazil. Until the problem with illegal drugs is resolved the problem of criminals with drugs will not be resolved with new laws.

Smell test

I have often mentioned that the free market system does more to help people than any other system but that the number one enemy of free market is corruption. Brazil is currently experiencing the disastrous results of large scale corruption. A cartel of companies was formed and through coordinated efforts over charged the State owned company Petrobras for products and services. The extra money was used to bribe people within Petrobras to cover up and then some of the money was filtered back to politicians who also covered up the scheme. This has all been exposed and their House of Cards is tumbling down. Many will be fined and many sent to prison but much of the money has been spend on extravagant life styles and the people of Brazil who own Petrobras will be the victims. This was one of the reasons I was concerned about the government offering money to renewable energy companies without minimal oversight. While there was nothing that I know of that was illegal there was the appearance of private deals since many of the recipients of this government largess donated to various political candidates and groups. It is similar to candidates who receive large contributions from Pacts and say this does not affect how they vote. Nothing illegal but it doesn’t pass the smell test!