New trade deal

Today the new trade agreement between the US, Canada and Mexico is signed and goes into effect January 1st, 2019. The primary beneficiaries of the agreement are labor unions, U.S. dairy farmers, U.S. drug manufacturers, and companies that provide automation for manufacturers (e.g., robot makers). The agreement specifies that Mexicans working in the auto plant be paid higher wages. Thirty percent must receive $16 per hour rising to 40% in five years, (today they are paid $5 per hour). It also says that 70% of parts of imported cars must be made in North America which eliminates some parts made in China and shipped to Mexico. This removes some of the cheap steel that China dumps on the world market. Since imported cars will cost more to manufacture so US consumers will pay more for the cars.

Lice

In years past a student with body lice was sent home and the parents notified but that is no longer the case. Today a student with lice is allowed to stay in school because it is considered a socioeconomic problem and the student would be embarrassed if they were sent home. Many say this is really to protect the school as other students quickly find out if one has lice. The schools today are afraid of any disruption that might cause any parent to get upset. The teachers are careful to make sure that nothing is said in the classroom that might upset anyone. This walking on egg shells can be stressful.

Texas natural gas

In the Permian Basin in Texas oil production is booming and this means higher production of natural gas. While in some places around the world natural gas reserves are low, in Texas there is a glut to the point where the price went below zero. Companies were paying for customers to take the excess gas off their hands. Some companies however decided just to burn off the gas and this creates problems with the environment and the states should step in and force these companies to stop the burn off. This glut will likely continue until a pipeline now under construction is completed in October of 2019 but some fear that regulatory disputes may delay completion. That gas will then be available for shipments around the world including places like China that could replace their coal power plants with natural gas.

Coal vs natural gas

Before WW 2 coal was the dominant fuel used by power plants but since that time oil and natural gas began to replace coal. This process has continued and was accelerated by the introduction of fracking which increased the supply and lowered the cost of natural gas. Over time all coal fired plants will be replaced by natural gas and the process will allow time for the industry to adjust. This natural progression will permit those who work in the industry to find other employment. While this is going on the mining of coal will continue and this will be exported to Asia and Africa. In time these continents will also replace coal with natural gas. This will happen regardless of any government regulations because it makes economic sense. For those who are concerned about climate change and are not motivated by politics the best move at this point would be to have the transportation industry move to natural gas.

Trump and the Saudis

The most recent example of the Trump unorthodox way of dealing with things is the case of the murdered journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Under past presidents, all of whom recognize the importance of Saudi Arabia as an ally, would have expressed total disgust and immediately denounced this act as not the way Americans do things. After a week or so of various threats and expressions of dismay the case would fade as the next hot news item took center stage. Not Trump. He comes out and says we need this ally to fight against Iran, and we need the big arms deal and we have got to keep gas prices low. We don't like what they have done but we are not dumping them. Trump is easily the most transparent president of my life time. He tweets out his thoughts and the public gets the news as soon as the press gets it and it is unfiltered. The normal response is that this is not presidential.

Man behind the tree

Back in the 50's a eugenicist suggested that all those with an IQ below a certain level be sterilized and upon first reading that seemed reasonable but when I discovered that I fell into that category, I immediately dismissed the whole idea a poppycock. Years later the same concept arose with the matter of taxes. I felt taxes should be increase on rich people of which I was not. The old adage of don't tax you and don't tax me but tax the man behind the tree was my thinking. Now that I am old an poor but wiser, I have a new perspective. I have secretly been pushing the concept of the wealth tax and I was hoping some prominent politician like Bernie Sanders would pick up the idea and run with it. I now have set up the parameters to put this plan into place. The tax will be 5% of a persons net worth, that being assets minus liabilities. There will be a $50,000 exemption because that is my net worth. I am going after the man behind the tree and let's see who that might be. Most people I know have a two or three hundred thousand dollar house with another 10 or 20 grand in personal property including cars along with some savings and a little in a pension plan. Their net worth would be about $200,000 and 5% of that is a mere $10,000. Now I know all of you people who are interested in helping us poor would gladly send a check off to the government so I could have a little better life style. After all it is only fair since I worked my entire life and I deserve it. My question to you is how does it feel to be the man behind the tree.

Person of the year

This time of the year the interest in Time's Person of the year is perked and usually controversial. The classic definition is the person who most affected the events of the year, for better or for worse. Since Trump monopolizes the news with almost 24/7 coverage he would be the obvious choice. His policies and his tweets are lead stories for those who like him and those who don't. Even the hot news people like the Me-too favorite Dr. Ford and journalist Jamal Khashoggi have come and gone but Trump is still going strong.

Age

When Reagan ran for president the first time he was 69 years old and he was reelected when he was 73. Much was made about his age from his opponents until he shot down Mondale in the debates with his concern about Mondale's youth and inexperience. Bernie Sanders will be 79 in 2020 and is considering a run against Trump. Since 80 is the new 60, I say go for it. We elderly citizens must stick together.

Fake news

The word fake news has become part of the current vernacular but for many it does not mean lying by distorting facts but rather misleading by leaving out part of the story. On Morning Joe they had a lengthy session on Trumps use of gas against the migrants. This led to remarks about Trump being unconcerned about the safety of women and children. What was not mentioned was that this use of gas has been has been ongoing since 2010. Arguing about the use of this gas is a legitimate discussion but leaving out part of the story can lead to a biased view. While the news itself is not fake the conclusion can be fake.

Are we alone

As the world awaits the Mars landing tomorrow the question about intelligent life in the universe in on the minds of some. There is no direct evidence of intelligent life but there is almost a mathematical certainty that there is. There are 40 billion earth like planets in our galaxy and there are 100 billion galaxies so there are 4,000 billion billion possibilities. An earth like planet is one that can have liquid water. To add to that there is theoretical evidence that there are multiple universes.

Diesel in France

The people in France are upset with the government plan to raise taxes on diesel. France wants to move away from fossil fuels and it makes sense for them to go to electric cars since 75% of their electric power comes from nuclear plants. The USA produces 62% of it's electric power from coal and natural gas so it would be wise to move the transportation industry over to natural gas. Unlike electric transportation, natural gas can be used for all cars, trucks, locomotives, ships and airplanes. The US leads all countries in the reduction of CO2 and that was just by replacing coal power plants with natural gas and that much more improvement could be made by switching transportation over to natural gas.

Wealth tax on Walmart family

Walmart's net income has fallen from $16 billion in 2015 to $10 billion in 2018. Walmart has 1.5 million US employees and about half are part time. The full time hourly employees number about 700,000. To increase the average pay from $11 per hour to $15 dollars per hour would cost about $5.6 billion and reduce their profit from $10 billion to $4.4 billion. Walmart US sales last year was $318 billion so the profit would be 1.4%. The Walmart family is worth $162 billion and Bernie Sanders says they should pony up for the pay increase. To take $5.6 billion from their $162 billion would only be 3.5% and this leads us to the idea of a wealth tax. Most of their money is in the form of Walmart stock so they would just sell stock each year and pass the money onto the employees.

Wall

In 1984 President agreed to give citizenship to 3 million illegal aliens with the promise that the border would be secured. The border security part never happened and today there are 11 million illegals in the country. The republicans have hardened their position saying that border security must come before more illegals are given a path to citizenship. In January of 2018 Senator Schumer agreed to fund a border wall if Trump would agree to a path to citizenship for the dreamers. Trump countered his offer by saying he would agree to a path to citizenship for not only the dreamers but for their parents if the wall were built and a limit on the number of extended family members who could then qualify for citizenship. This is so close but each side feels doing nothing helps their side. The voters are getting frustrated with this put the party ahead of the country idea.

Perception

The recent spat between Chief Justice Roberts and President Trump has shown how different people see things differently. Roberts is the politically correct side of the story. He says the right thing, that judges do not allow their personal bias to enter into their decisions but Trump says as long as they are human they will not be able to completely separate who they are from how they rule. Recently Assistant Attorney General Rob Rosenstein made derogatory comments about Trump but said this would not affect his job performance. The new attorney general Matthew Whitaker has made negative comments about the Mueller investigation but says this will not influence his rulings. Both are believed or disbelieved depending on which side of the issue they stand. Human beings view the world not necessarily as it is but rather through their perception of how it is and more often than not they think they are right.

School topics

Every year when the school test scores come out there is much concern about the discrepancy between white and non-white students (Asian Americans excluded). While this is a legitimate worry there is another problem lurking in the shadows and that has to do with political correctness. Teachers seem to have lost their first amendment rights. Here is a partial list of topics that must be avoided in the classroom. Politics, religion, abortion, gun control, undocumented immigrants, sexual orientation, mental illness, race relations, welfare, sanctuary cities, poor vs rich, electoral college, liberalism, and conservatism. It is assumed that the teacher cannot discuss these subjects without personal prejudice and that may be correct but what one of the main purposes of formal education is to learn how to discuss controversial subjects. Students often look to teachers as roll models and will they then be hesitant to bring up certain subjects with their family and friends. These issues present serious problems and cannot be solved by hiding them under the rug. The school is only partially to blame as I had a assistant principal tell me he did not want to get a call from a parent complaining about the subjects discussed in class. The school feels it must avoid any subject that might be upsetting to any parent. Good luck with that.

Asylum

As if the immigration rules are not messed up enough a federal judge has ruled that it is illegal to stop people from illegally entering the country. The interesting part is that most experts agree that the judge is right. It is up to congress to stop this illegal entry but they seem to be unable to agree on how to do it. The 1965 Immigration and Nationality Act states that any foreigner who arrives in the USA, "whether or not at a designated port of arrival," may apply for asylum. Congress made this law and it is up to them to change it, if they want to. Meanwhile thousands or even millions could stream across the border and they could all then apply for asylum. As Yakov Smirnoff would say, What A Country.

Soak the rich

Republicans tried to repeal and replace Obamacare and failed by one vote when Senator McCain voted against the bill. As the republicans floundered around for two years since the Trump election the democrats said the republicans were going to take away the pre-existing clause which of course was always there in Medicaid. The 2018 midterms centered around this pre-existing clause and the democrats won back the house on the promise that they would bring down health care cost while protection the pre-existing condition clause. They are now in the same position the republicans were in and must find a solution to the rising cost of healthcare. The only plan that is being discussed is government healthcare for all and polls show support for this and certainly companies are for it so what is the hangup. How to pay for it. The total wealth of the people in the US is $67 trillion and the top 10% own 76% of that or $50 trillion dollars. A 7% wealth tax on these people would provide $3.5 trillion dollars per year and that would cover the cost of healthcare for all. Since the wealth of the world rich grew by 19% last year they would still be ahead. With the rise of social democrats the country may be ripe to pick the pockets of the rich. Let's see how it goes.

New tax law

On Morning Joe this AM they were bemoaning the fact that wealthy people in high tax states were going to pay more taxes because of the new tax law and that many of them voted democrat in the 2018 midterms because of these tax changes. While that is probably true it does show that middle upper income people will pay more taxes other things being equal. In 2017 30% of taxpayers itemized deductions and people with incomes of over $100,000 received 88% of these deductions. People with high incomes who live in states with high taxes benefit the most from these deductions. These are mostly from deducting state income tax and property tax. For a family with $400,000 income living in a million dollar home the new tax law will have an adverse effect. Their state income tax and property tax could easily be more than $40,000 but the new tax law limits their deduction for these two items to $10,000. In addition the mortgage interest deduction will be limited to mortgages up to $750,000. Once again many wealthy people have homes worth several million dollars and they will lose some of their mortgage interest deductions so rich people are not too happy with the new tax law.

Coumo Amazon

New York State is promising Amazon $1.3 billion in tax subsidies to bring their new office to Queens. The state only collects $6 billion in corporate income tax so this is quite a give away. Welfare for low income people is an acceptable use of state funds but corporate welfare is questionable. Governor Cuomo said that since the state has such high corporate income tax rates he had to sweeten the pot or Amazon may just move to Texas. To quote Cuomo: “It’s not a level playing field to begin with. All things being equal, if we do nothing, they’re going to Texas.”

Tax break

60 million people are employed by companies and the average cost for healthcare is $10,000 per employee so the total cost that companies pay for healthcare is $600 billion. As a comparison corporations pay $325 billion in income tax. Going to a national healthcare system will save these companies $600 billion or almost twice what they pay in income tax.

Pelosi

Trump is touting Pelosi for speaker and many say he is just trying to keep her out of the job and that likely is the case but there is another possibility. The newly elected Democrats are left leaning and will not be willing to compromise and if they get control there will be gridlock since they cannot pass any legislation without the senate and even then Trump could veto. Perhaps Trump realizes that his best chance for getting anything done is to work with Pelosi who would like to leave a legacy of accomplishments. She knows that the Dems were elected on the promise to fix health care and there is no chance of that without help from Trump. If two more years go by without a healthcare fix the Dems may suffer in 2020

Music Man

While flipping though Youtube today, I came across and unexpected pleasure. I discovered a new version of the old hit, The Music Man, and as I watched I realized how much times have changed. The story revolves around Professor Harold Hill's pursuit of Marian the librarian. He is persistent to a fault and in spite of her numerous rebuffs he will not give up. Even though she spurns his advances repeatedly he keeps after her using all sorts of trickery, false promises and out right lies. In the end he wins her heart. In today's world he would be arrested for stalking and convicted of sexual harassment. The old adage of he chased her until she caught him is no longer allowed. The country has undergone many cultural changes and most were good but some are just a little too much.

Census data

There is a bill before congress asking that only citizens be counted in determining the distribution of federal dollars. If illegals are not counted separately they will count in getting federal dollars. While most are concerned about the political ramifications of this bill there are also significant economic issues. Census guidelines determine how $500 billion in federal dollars are distributed. That equates to $930 million dollars per electoral vote. There are an estimated 11 million undocumented (not citizens) and this is 15 electoral votes or $14 billion dollars.

Bipartisanship

The time is ripe for bi-partisanship. Prison reform. Get rid of the Clinton 3 strikes policy. Make penalties for crack and powered cocaine the same. Infrastructure. Set up programs using 2/3rds federal money with 1/3rd matching state or private money. Immigration. Stop family based immigration and build wall while setting a path to citizenship for the dreamers and their parents. Taxes. Lower taxes on middle income people and raise taxes on the top one percent. Healthcare. Medicaid free for all earning less than 4 times the poverty rate and retain company healthcare plans. There are no pre-existing conditions in Medicaid Work toward getting rid of import taxes for all who do business with the USA.

Helping the poor

Almost half the worlds populations, 3 billion people live on less than $2.50 per day. This population increases by 40 million each year. Another 2.5 billion live on less than $10 per day and they increase by over 30 million per year. The US has a legal immigration of one million per year so using immigration to solve world poverty will not work. They must be helped where they live and free market capitalism is the key. The successfully developed countries must purchase goods from third world countries to help these people. The best example is how Americans helped the poor in China move to higher incomes. A growing US economy does more to help the world's poor than any government or charity.

Tax breaks

The tax cuts from the 2017 tax bill are composed of individual tax breaks and corporate tax breaks but the individual breaks will sunset in 2025 while the corporate breaks continue. In the first 8 years 20% of the savings goes to the top one percent of earners. In 2017 the top one percent earned 20% of the money and paid 40% of the taxes. It is only after the sunset that the top one percent gets 83% of the tax savings. This 83% figure is often quoted in the press as if that is what is happening now without the explanation that it will only happen in 2025 when the individual breaks end. Congress will try to make these individual tax breaks permanent in the coming session so that will not happen. The 83% figure has been quoted so often that most people believe that is happening now.

Business approach

It is often said that Trump is a business man and not a politician and this idea will be tested now that the democrats have taken control of the house. While politicians are credit oriented and thus prefer party over country, a businessman is results oriented and does not concern himself with credit. Trump can now set up programs that will benefit the country by giving congress the credit. He can increase taxes on the higher incomes and lower taxes on middle incomes. He can use federal money to set up new infrastructure plans since democrats are not concerned about deficits and agree to a path to citizenship for dreamers and their parents for a border wall. In each case he can praise the congress for its forward thinking and cooperation. This will give Pelosi a legacy to retire with and congress some achievements to run on in 2020. While all of this domestic activity is happening Trump can continue his strategy regarding tax free trade agreements.

News conferences

One of the many differences between Trump and other presidents is the way he has press conferences. Typically the press is given advanced notice and the conference is held in the White House. Presidents typically spend a lot of time answering questions so the total number of questions is limited. Trump has unannounced conferences and answers questions in rapid fire sequences. The news reports that Trump has given only half a many formal new conferences as Obama but what is not reported is the number of questions Trump answers. Trump engaged reporters in 170 short question and answer sessions during his first 465 days in office, a window that ended Tuesday, compared to Obama’s 55 short Q&As, which generally are with members of the White House press pool.

Felons voting

Minnesota has long faced the dilemma of how to deal with convicted sex offenders. The current system says that when a sex offender has complete his sentence he must then go to another prison based on the concept of something he might do. Experts have currently determined that these offenders will once again offend if given the opportunity. Common sense dictates that you should not be sent to prison for something you might do based on some experts opinion but that is where the law stands. Florida approved voting rights for convicted felons who have served their time except for those convicted of murder or rape. Is this based on some data that says they will murder or rape again and if so should they be released. Will some convicted murderer go to court over the equal protection of the 14th amendment?

National healthcare

If the country goes to a national healthcare plan it will be a cash windfall for corporations. In 2017 the US population was about 325 million and the cost of healthcare was $3.5 trillion or a little over $10,000 per person. There are currently 155 million Americans covered by employer sponsored healthcare at a cost of $1.6 trillion dollars. Employers pay 80% of this or $1.28 trillion. Last year corporations paid $300 billion in income tax. The savings in healthcare cost will be four times greater that what the companies pay in income tax.

Monopoly

Trump has recently expressed concern about the monopoly power of certain companies. The concern about Google and Facebook may well be warranted since they can use their power to influence political thought but a company like Amazon is not in that category. Amazon is much like Ma Bell in the 50's. The telephone was the best of bargains based on what you paid and the benefits received but people were upset because AT&T was making too much money. It didn't matter that they were getting a good deal they wanted a better deal by forcing the company to break up with the idea that rates would then come down. Amazon is providing an excellent service at a reasonable price and people are happy with the company. They are not influencing any political thought but some people are upset because Amazon doesn't have enough competition. Others feel that since Amazon now owns the Washington Post they should be tossed in with Facebook.

Bureaucrats

Now that the dust has settled over the Kavanaugh case, one of the more important influences he may have on the court can be investigated. Over the years bureaucracies have assumed more and more authority and the courts have not resisted. Kavanaugh is a believer in the idea that the courts should reign in the authority of groups like the EPA. Many scholars agree that these nonelected government officials have expanded their authority and need to be checked. In the past nine years the EPA alone has issued 3,300 new regulations adding 30,000 pages of rules and there are 430 government agencies.

Private healthcare cost

The average annual cost of private health care per employee is $10,000 and the employer pays 80% of that or $8,000. Walmart has 1.5 million employees so their cost for health care is $11 billion. Last years tax law that reduced corporate income tax saved Walmart 2 billion in taxes. Many of the same people who were against lowering corporate taxes are pushing to have government paid health care for all. From a business standpoint Walmart would give up their tax cut to get rid of health care cost. Other large corporations would see similar cost savings so most would be for national health care.

Immigrant visa

3 Ways to apply for legal immigration to USA One can immigrate to America and get a US Green Card, by securing a job in the country. This option is open to highly skilled foreign nationals The second way most people choose to immigrate to the United States is through marriage. Third you can immigrate to America if you are a family member of a US citizen or a permanent resident.  How to apply If a person wants to legally immigrate to the US, the first step is to apply for an immigrant VISA. Submit a petition Choose an agent Pay fees Submit application Collect financial documents Collect supporting documents Submit documents Conduct applicant interview According to USCIS, an application for permanent residence (Form I-485) will take anywhere from 7 months to 33 months to process.

Legal immigrants

Canada uses a merit based system for immigration. It favors youth, education, experience and fluency in English or French. If the US would use such a system those with experience and education in science and technology (STEM) would be given preference. The US currently suffers from a shortage in these areas and these jobs are highly skilled and highly paid. In 2016, 1.49 million foreign-born individuals moved to the United States, a 7 percent increase from the 1.38 million coming in 2015. India was the leading country of origin, with 175,100 arriving in 2016, followed by 160,200 from China. This represents 22% If the merit based system is used the numbers from Asia will rapidly increase.

War

This coming November 11th is the 100th anniversary of the ending of World War One, the war to end all wars. Many Americans have not had the opportunity to serve in the military and have little understanding of what it is like to be in battle. An Australian song writer named Eric Bogle captured the essence. This may be more than some want to deal with but for those who listen, I ask if you would turn your face away. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwe7WJeRWhg