Road projects

Today the plans for a bi-partisan infrastructure program were laid out and the number $2 trillion dollars was tossed about. Back in 2009, former President Barack Obama made some lofty promises about the infrastructure overhaul that his $800 billion economic stimulus plan would provide. Obama used the phrase “shovel-ready projects” in reference to construction projects that could begin right away. In the end, however, only $98.3 billion of the $800 billion stimulus was dedicated to transportation and infrastructure. Of that $98.3 billion, only about $27.5 billion was actually spent on transportation infrastructure projects. One of the problems was the number of regulations which made a joke of the phrase shovel-ready. Lets hope things work better this time.

Caravans

We often hear stories about dysfunctional families but when it comes to immigration we have a dysfunctional country. Families coming in with children are allowed to stay so children are sent back and forth across the border bringing in new families with each trip. It is a 1,400 mile trip from the Southern Mexico border to El Paso and these children make that journey mostly on foot. They come in caravans for safety reasons since there are dangers along the way. At the US border all girls age ten and over are given a pregnancy test. The long trip has a detrimental effect on health especially for young children. The latest caravan has migrants from South American and Africa. There are radio stations that broadcast the procedure to get into the United States.

FISA court

For two years certain right wing leaning reporters have questioned the origins of the Mueller/Russia investigation. They claimed that the FISA court permission to look into the probe was based on faulty information provided by the Steel dossier. It now appears that other reporters are looking into these allegations. In a front-page story this past Saturday, The New York Times reported that “F.B.I. agents had tracked down and interviewed one of Mr. Steele’s main sources, a Russian speaker from a former Soviet republic who had spent time in the West . . . After questioning him about where he’d gotten his information, they suspected he might have added his own interpretations to reports passed on by his sources . . . that made it harder to decide what to trust.” This same article uses the word," eavesdrop" in describing the way the government listened in on conversations with Trump adviser Carter Page. This is a synonym for spying. The law outlines that any reports given to the FISA judges must be vetted as to accuracy and it appears this did not happen.

Payroll

The IRS says you must report all income which includes cash. If you are an illegal immigrant working in the US and you fail to report cash income that is tax evasion. The law says you must get an ITIN and use that to file your taxes. If you are paid by check then the employer withholds taxes including payroll tax. You can file and get a refund on any income tax withheld but you will not get the payroll tax back and these contributions to social security will never provide any retirement benefits to you.

Work

Joe Biden gave a speech and spoke about the days when he grew up and said, "We learned the dignity of work, and we were told that anyone can make it if the just try hard enough". Over the past 50 plus years there was a gradual change that happened so slowly that most did not notice it but in looking back it become quite obvious. To put it simply, it used to be that people thought, if they worked harder they would get a raise but that has changed to, if you give me a raise I will work harder. It wasn't just about money but that is the mechanism used to evaluate work. Work is a part of life just as school is for younger people. Work gives people a feeling of accomplishment. You know you are an adult when you are paying your own light bill. People who suffer an illness or disability and cannot work understand the value of work and how it adds dignity to life. Some able bodied people of working age have found a life without work and they have short changed themselves without even realizing it.

Online school

In most high schools students are issued computers and they use these to receive their lessons and to turn in their assignments. I subbed this week in a math class where they started a new chapter on polar coordinates and there was a short lecture followed by examples of problems and then an assignment doing problems with answers and then problems without answers and these were turn in to be graded. I mention this because it is training for colleges of the future. It requires more discipline on the part of the student and those without that ability will lag behind and realize they are not ready for college. It means only those with means who want to use college years away from home as way to grow up will go off to school. Others will work from home only going to campus periodically for exams. The cost of home college is far less and this will allow anyone with the needed maturity to get their degree. I have taken on line courses and it is great when listening to a lecture and you need clarification you just back up and review. The course work is available at your convenience. Even courses like chemistry the student will only go the campus for lab work.

Amazon now

Amazon was at $1,900 last October when Bezos announced he was going to raise his minimum wage to $15 per hour. Over the next few months the stock valued declined to just under $1,600. Today it is back up over $1,900. Others things occurred during this time that may have affected the stock but it is still worth noting that higher wages many not hurt the company as much as some think.

Recycle

Recycling is fast going the way of corn ethanol in that the promised results are not forthcoming. Sometimes obvious solutions to problems are not studied thoroughly and end up with unexpected results. By the time the errors are uncovered too much has been invested to go back and such is the case with corn ethanol and it is beginning to look like the same with recycling. Switching away from corn ethanol to cellulosic ethanol may allow plants to get back on track but that is not happening. The main problem with recycling is that China no longer accepts our garbage so the excess is just put into landfills.

Moral hazard

After the mortgage disaster in 2007 many banks were deemed too big to fail and congress passed legislation, (Dodd/Frank) to minimize the risk and today the banks are even bigger. JP Morgan is now worth $2.5 trillion which is twice the size it was before Dodd/Frank. The banks felt, and they were right, that the government would not let them fail and this attitude is called a moral hazard. It means that the banks were willing to take undue risk knowing that if they goofed the government would back them up. Some states like California and Illinois are doing the same thing with their pension plans. They are so far in debt that they think the government will step in an bail them out. Yesterday Senator Warren suggested that the government should excuse student debt and this is what many students were hoping for as they accumulated debt beyond their ability to pay back. There were articles published about students who were taking out loans and investing in stocks thinking they could beat the system.

Border patrol

Some people question the wisdom of sending more soldiers to the southern border as long as the laws remain as they are. If soldiers lined up shoulder to shoulder with their toes on the line a refugee need only walk up to them and stick their toe on the line between the soldiers and they must be allowed into the country. Two CBP agents who had been standing a few feet from the border stepped forward and stood directly on the line. I witnessed one of the agents, whose name tag said Augustin, take a couple steps into Mexico to prevent one of the Guatemalans from crossing into the United States. CBP spokesman Maier later said port officials denied that any agent crossed into Mexico.

Slavery atonement

For all of you youngsters, Kate Smith was a popular singer back in my youth and she is currently being castigated for some hit songs she recorded. They include racially sensitive lyrics with words like darkies. She did not write these songs and one of them was also recorded by Paul Robson a famous black singer. She made many trips during the war entertaining the troops and help to sell $600 million in US bonds for the war effort. Maybe those who wrote these songs along with those who prepared the records and those radio stations that played them should also be called on the carpet. Don't forget all of those fans who enjoyed listening to these songs. Some reasonableness must be applied to attempts to right the wrongs of slavery.

Investigations

When President Clinton was in office republicans controlled both houses and that is one of the reasons that the investigation went on for four years. Now that the democrats control the house the Trump/Russia investigation will continue for at least two more years and if they maintain control and Trump is reelected the probes will continue for four more years. This is the stuff that politics is made of these days. Experts say that Clinton made a mistake by being the first president to testify before the Grand Jury. Others say that he still would have been alright if it weren't for the blue dress. Clinton was smart enough to have avoided the perjury trap that most fall prey to but the smoking gun dress did him in. Trump followed the advise of his council and refused to testify in person and that most consider a wise decision.

Common beliefs

While people who are active in politics are moving toward the left and right the majority of citizens are still considered center right and they have some shared beliefs. Healthcare for all without destroying private insurance Secure borders Encourage legal immigration and discourage illegal immigration More manufacturing jobs Living wage by raising prices if necessary Government oversight to prevent corruption Strong military Term limits for congress Equal treatment under the law Proper ID for voting Respect for the pledge and the flag Leave the constitution alone Level playing field for foreign trade Congressional compromise putting country ahead of party Clean air and water and food safety America to be exceptional Keeping government out of religion and religion out of government

IL taxes

Illinois, my home state, is deep in debt much of which is caused by pension obligations to state employees and teachers. These debts if ever paid will be paid largely by middle and low income people. Here is one example where they are proposing doubling the state gas tax from 18 cents to 36 cents. The bill also includes vehicle registration fees of $148 and license fees of $60 A federal motor fuel (excise) tax of 18.4 cents And more state and local motor fuel (excise) taxes: 19 cent state motor fuel tax 5 cent Chicago motor fuel tax 6 cent Cook County motor fuel tax State underground storage and environmental fees of a little over 1 cent In addition the state sales tax also hits low income people the hardest.\ A slew of sales taxes that total 10.25 percent*: 6.25 percent state sales tax 1.25 percent Chicago sales tax 1.75 percent Cook County sales tax 1.00 percent Regional Transportation Authority sales tax

Health insurance

The average cost of company paid health insurance is $19,616 of which $5,547 is paid by the employee and $14,069 for the employer. Since 160 million people have company insurance this will transfer 160 million times $14,069 or $2.25 trillion from corporations to government and that is each year. This still leaves another 160 million people without coverage. If their cost is similar the total cost for all Americans is close to the entire budget. While companies will love this plan those whose taxes increase to cover the cost will not like it.

Fascism

The news media today often refers to liberals as leaning toward communism and conservatives as leaning toward fascism. Here is the standard definition of Fascism and it does not appear to represent current conservative views. Fascism is a form of government which is a type of one-party dictatorship. Fascists are against democracy. They work for a totalitarian one-party state. This aim is to prepare the nation for armed conflict, and to respond to economic difficulties. ... It stands for a centralized government headed by a dictator. Conservatives are for small government although they do not always practice that. Conservatives do want the country to be prepared for war but they are not opposed to democracy and they certainly do not want centralized government control but they push more for states rights commonly called federalism.

Money

There is an old adage that says money is the mothers milk of politics and almost weekly we see articles about how much money each candidate is amassing. Recall that in the 2016 presidential campaign that the republicans spent $950 million and the democrats spent $1.4 billion and Trump still won. While money is certainly a part of every campaign it is not the be all end all that the fore mentioned adage might indicate. For some voters is it charisma for others policies for others likability and others just vote the party. Candidates who spend the most win the most but they are usually the incumbents and they win for many other reasons besides money. Money is often used as an excuse by the losers. There is a big difference in where the money comes from. Thousands of small donations are quite different from one very large donation. Money from individuals is different than money from PACs. While money to campaigns must be watched the money that comes from lobbyist must be watched even closer. The best way to watch is to have all donations listed with the name of the donor.

Pelosi

Nancy Pelosi seems poised to move into the rarefied air of putting country ahead of party. According to news reports she has suggested to Trump an infrastructure plan and Trump wants a deal on immigration. If these two can swing this Pelosi knows that Trump will get the credit for both. They are currently far apart on infrastructure since Trump wants to spend $200 billion and Pelosi wants $2 trillion but this is how negotiations begin. The deal on immigration is low hanging fruit with a path to citizenship for the dreamers and a border wall.

2020 election

In the 1964 presidential campaign Berry Goldwater reignited conservatism but the country wasn't ready and he lost in a landslide but it set the stage for Reagan in 1980. In the 1972 presidential campaign George McGoven set up a commission to revamp the Democratic Party. The commission significantly reduced the role of party officials and insiders in the nomination process, increased the role of caucuses and primaries, and mandated quotas for proportional black, women, and youth delegate representation. The country wasn't ready for these changes and McGovern lost in a landslide but it set the stage for all of the changes that have since taken place in the Democratic Party. The result is that we have 100 female representatives and 25 female senators, 56 Blacks and 43 Hispanics. The 2020 election will bring in significant changes in the Democratic Party but the country is not ready. The ideas being presented are ahead of the people. Change can occur but not so fast. Things like monthly checks to all citizens, changing the Supreme Court, wealth tax, national healthcare and changing the electoral college are too much too fast for most people. These changes may well happen but it will be in the future. The only chance for democrats is if the dislike of Trump is so great that people will overlook the campaign promises understanding that they are just that, promises. Just one mans opinion.

New corp tax

Last year Amazon made $10 billion and paid zero income tax. How is this possible. First off Amazon made no money in its first ten years so those loses are carried forward into profitable years. Second and more important Amazon does not pay dividends and reinvests all profits causing the company to grow. Investors make money by growth in the stock. In the past five years the stock has increased from $300 per share to $1,800. CEO Jeff Besoz has a salary of $84,000 per year but the company pays for all of his expenses including things like personal security and travel. He is like President Trump in that he has no expenses. Senator Warren has proposed a surtax on corporation to pay for new government programs. For Amazon this means $700 million in taxes on their last years profits of $10 billion. This is money that will not be invested in new business adventures since Amazon invests all of their profits. These new adventures could create jobs and expand the overall economy. Once the money goes to the government there will be no new jobs just new public assistance programs. Too add to the confusion it is well known in economic circles that corporations don't pay taxes they just raise the prices and pass the tax onto consumers. There are 60 million Amazon Prime uses so this would be a $12 per year increase in price. It still comes down to the little guy paying to transfer money to the little guy with the government acting as middle man and taking their cut. New tax proposals rarely bring in what is predicted and cost of new government programs is almost always more than predicted.

Move illegals to cities

Trump has suggested that illegal migrants be transported to sanctuary cities but that is not necessary because they will likely go to those places on their own. These are areas that promise not to call ICE and offer benefits such as healthcare. California has the weather they prefer and there are large areas of immigrants who speak Spanish and can help newcomers adapt. It is the logical place for them to go. If they are counted in the upcoming census California will receive a larger share of federal government benefits and possibly gain another seat in congress. California offers drivers licenses to illegals and you can register to vote on line using a driver license. The voter registration application asks for your driver license or California identification card number, or you can use the last four numbers on your Social Security card. If you do not have a driver license, California identification card or Social Security card, you may leave that space blank. Your county elections official will assign a number to you that will be used to identify you as a voter.

Foreign students

23% (6.870) of Harvard's 29,908 students are foreign students. Last year Harvard accepted 1,962 students out of 42,749 applicants. Most of these applicants have very high test scores and very high GPA's but foreign students are given spots that would otherwise go to American students. Many other colleges have similar enrollments. In 2016, 544,500 foreign students finished their education and 432,500 returned to their home countries the majority of whom were from China. Universities like this, since foreign students generally pay full tuition.

Yang

Andrew Yang is the candidate running for president who wants to give $1,000 per month to every American. His reasoning follows the ideas presented by Karl Marx. Marx felt that with innovation the extra profits from automation would go to the business owners and the workers would be left out. Yang feels that as low skilled people lose their jobs to robots the profits will go to the owners and the workers will be out of a job. He feels that someone must buy the products that robots are making and the laid off consumers will use the $12,000 per year for that purpose. He presents an interesting problem but his solution makes people a little uncomfortable. It also shows that he feels that people will not be able to adjust on their own.

Ukraine

The Foreign Agents Registration Act of 1938 requires agents to register. This act was one of those many laws that are routinely ignored until the recent Mueller investigation during which it was enforced against Paul Manafort. Today the same law was used to indict Greg Craig former Obama attorney. Some say it was to confront criticism that Mueller only went after republicans. Most agree that Manafort would never have been indicted if he had not worked for the Trump campaign and now they feel the same about Craig who was caught up in the same Ukrainian mess.

Assange

The release of Julian Assange has brought back the case of Daniel Ellsberg. He worked for the government and released to the news media confidential information about the Viet Nam War. On January 3, 1973, Ellsberg was charged under the Espionage Act of 1917. The information proved that the government had lied to the public and he all charges against Ellsberg were dismissed. The case against Assange centers around how he came by the information he published. Ellsberg got his info because he was a government employee who had access whereas Assange is accused of getting his info by hacking government computers. If he got his info from some other means the case against him will not hold up and even if he hacked if the information revealed government lies he could still be released.

Healthcare

The administrative cost with Medicare are less than those in private insurance. The big differences are first that social security is charged with keeping track of Medicare patience as well as collecting premiums. Second Medicare doesn't spend as much in checking on need before approving treatment. The big difference is private insurance pays for advertising and Medicare for all would eliminate that cost and thus offer considerable savings. Longer term Medicare for all offers savings in rationing treatment. With private insurers competing there are limits on how much rationing will work. If one company says they will not pay for a certain treatment another company may step in to get that business. In summary Medicare for all will offer savings by removing advertising cost and rationing treatment. In making the change millions of jobs will be eliminated along with billions in advertising dollars.

Online college

As wages for low skilled workers continue to rise, those proposing to raise the minimum wage are now calling for a living wage which makes more sense. The downside is that more of these jobs will be automated. As the cost of something increases there is pressure to find alternatives. The same thing is happening in education. As the cost of tuition follows the rise in student loans or perhaps the other way around, more and more on line courses will become available. Aside for going in for lab work many students in the future will be working from home. The need for campus learning will decline and colleges will become specialty schools. With online learning, if you miss a point in a lecture you just back up and go over it again. The use of open book exams allow students to find out what they know as opposed to finding out what they don't know. Students go to a campus sites for final exams where a proctor gives the exam. This has been the case with financial planners who take an exam that is offered at the same time across the country. Typically each course has 18 sections which are studied over a semester and then the student goes to a central location for a two hour essay type exam. This is the future for universities.

Cost of Pot

Young people are attracted to pot smoking for a number of reasons, one of which is the cost. The average cigarette user spends about $2,500 per year where as the average pot smoker spends about $700 based on legal sales. Pot offers the mind bending effect that one gets from alcohol along with the lung problems caused by cigarettes. You might say it's a 2-fer. Many are watching states where pot is legal to see if there are any adverse effects. It will be difficult to get a true picture because many use pot instead of cigarettes and/or alcohol. Most parents agree that they would prefer that their children avoid all three of these drugs and don't need to wait for any empirical data to confirm their wishes.

Border problem

It was reported in the news today that 103,000 immigrants came across the southern border during the month of March and only 11,000 of those came through points of entry. This leaves 92,000 who came across between points of entry and this number does not allow for those who came through undetected. Trying to curtail these large numbers is overwhelming the border patrol. Congress has suggested more barriers along with high tech surveillance and more border guards and all of these would help but a change in the law regarding offering asylum to anyone who sets foot on US territory would discourage people from coming to the border. Most agree that a change in immigration policy is needed but that is bogged down with politics.

The Fed

The fed is winding down debt at 50 billion a month and has now surpassed 500 billion. This is the pay back of the $5 trillion in quantitative easing that was instituted to fight the crash that started in 2008. This will slow down the growth in GDP but necessary to balance the central bank. The Fed has a balance sheet composed of assets, (US Treasuries and mortgage backed securities), and liabilities, (reserve deposits held in banks.) The Fed had been renewing these T bills when they came due but they are now not renewing at the rate of $50 billion per month. This will reduce liquidity and cause the economy to slow but if done at the proper rate will still allow for some growth, perhaps 2% or so.

Migrants

When unaccompanied minors are picked up at the border they must be housed for 20 days and then placed in foster care. More than 100,000 children have been placed since 2016 and only 4% are deported. The rest remain and are on track to citizenship which puts them ahead of the dreamers. This is all part of the 1997 Flores Settlement. This has led to various adults either bringing their own children with them or finding unaccompanied minors and claiming them as children. The current facilities to handle this influx is maxed out and there is no place for these people to live. The cost is $600 per day per child and more for families and 15,000 children are currently being held at a cost of $9 million dollars per day. In FY 2018, the federal government is set to spend $3.076 billion on DHS Custody Operations, or $8.43 million per day on immigrant detention.

China business

Last year US companies spent almost one-half trillion on research and development. China says that if a US company wants to do business in China the Chinese government must have 51% control of that company. This means they have access to the companies secrets including R & D. US companies who go to great lengths to keep secrets from other American companies do not have that option in China. China is now considering changing this rule for investment companies and if that happens it could lead to changing the rule for other industries. One has to wonder how this all came to pass.

Nuke option

The prison reform bill passed with by-partisan support and Trump gets most of the credit. This is an example of what can happen but is not likely to happen again. Both parties would like an infrastructural bill and lower pharma cost bill but Trump would get credit for those and use these accomplishments in the upcoming election. This is not just one party as both try to keep the other parties president from any successes. The two big bills in the past ten years have been Obamacare passed with a majority in the house and filibusterer majority in the senate and tax reform passed with a majority in both houses. In both cases the credit went to the White House. It is likely that the next party to have control of both houses will vote to eliminate the filibuster in the senate as they have with judges the so called nuclear option.

Immigration court

What happens to an illegal alien whose request for asylum is denied. Your case will automatically be referred to the immigration court. The judge will review the evidence and make a decision. If your request it denied you can appeal to the Board of Immigration Appeals (BIA). This appeal must be filed by mail within 30 days and the appeal takes on average one year. If the BIA denies your claim you can appeal to the United States Court of Appeals. You do not have to appear but this takes three or four years. The court may grant asylum or send the case back to the immigration judge. If your case is denied again you can appeal to the Supreme Court. There is currently a back log of 800,000 cases and each year this back log grows. If congress would change the law regarding the right of asylum to anyone who steps foot in the country much of this back log would quickly be eliminated but congress has chosen to ignore this situation.

Asylum

A person from Central America arriving at the border has the right to apply for asylum if they left their country for being persecuted on account of race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group, or political opinion. An asylee—or a person granted asylum—is protected from being returned to his or her home country, is authorized to work in the United States, may apply for a Social Security card, may request permission to travel overseas, and can petition to bring family members to the United States. Asylees may also be eligible certain benefits, such as Medicaid or Refugee Medical Assistance.After one year, an asylee may apply for lawful permanent resident status (i.e., a green card). Once the individual becomes a permanent resident, he or she must wait four years to apply for citizenship. 

Schultz

Howard Schultz is mindful of what a democrat was like before Trump. He is for higher taxes on the rich, for the TPA, pro-choice, concerned about the national debt, for more gun control, pro fixing the VA, and will go after people with expired VISAs. He is against the green dream, against increasing the court, against getting rid of the electoral college, against reparations, against free college and against the wealth tax. The surprising thing is that he wants to reduce the cost of social security and Medicare and these items are known by the incorrect name of entitlements. This so called third rail of politics is the most costly part of our annual deficits but rarely mentioned by any one running for office. It is courageous of him but he will be crucified.

Slavery and statues

Give a man enough rope and he will hang himself is an old adage that may develop over the next few years. A few years ago it was suggested that statues honoring confederate leaders be taken down and over 100 have been removed. Students are now demanding that a statue of Thomas Jefferson at Hofstra University be taken down. There are many other memorials to Jefferson along with schools, streets and buildings named after him. Of course, Jefferson was not alone as 25 members of the Convention delegation owned slaves including George Washington who owned over 300 slaves. Will the Washington monument and the Jefferson memorial be taken down. This practice was not limited to whites. For example by 1760, 48 black people in Maryland owned 143 black slaves. There were also white slaves called indentured servants. While going about cleansing the country of past sins, should it be limited to slavery. What about presidents who were involved in adulterous affairs. The list of sins is long and will take a lot of rope.

Business

There are 22 million small businesses in the United States where the only employee is the owner. These are people who risk a lot and end up working long hours. Most people work for a someone else for a fixed salary. 627,000 small businesses start up each year and 595,000 close down so the risk is substantial. In free market capitalism the person has the right to fail and many do, but the rewards for success can be great and thus contribute to income disparities.

Wealth tax

More details are forthcoming regarding Senator Warren's wealth tax. She wants 2% on all assets above $50 million and an additional one percent on assets over one billion. Europe tried this but they had to forego tax on non liquid assets because the cost of appraisals was too expensive. This leaves liquid assets such as cash or stocks and bonds. Rich people don't keep a lot of cash on hand and they would quickly move their equities to off shore accounts a practice which is currently popular. 15 countries had a wealth tax but 11 got rid of it because the cost of enforcement was prohibited. The amount collected was far less than what was projected because wealthy people found ways to move their assets around to avoid the tax. Yet of the 15 European countries that tried a wealth tax in recent years, only four still use it. Most of those governments ultimately were underwhelmed by the revenue raised and overwhelmed by the difficulty in collecting an accurate tax.

Chick fil A

Chick fil A is a private company founded in 1967 by Truett Cathy a Southern Baptist who believed that gay marriage was wrong. His stores are closed on Sundays to honor the biblical reference to honor the Lords Day. Cathy has donated money to groups who oppose gay marriage. Recently two stores were forced to close by government regulations because of perceived or real prejudice against gays. The company has no policy against hiring or serving gays. Cathy has put his money where his mouth is since the company loses one-seventh of their sales by closing on Sunday. If this process of closing stores continues it could cause the company to go out of business. Some who oppose Chick have stated that is their purpose. There are 120,000 people who work at Chick and they are ordinary citizens trying to pay their light bill and they will be out of a job.