Child Covid cases

The country is facing a series of dilemma's. Polls show that people want their children to go back to school but the same polls show the parents are concerned about the virus. Teachers who continue to get paid are not that anxious to go back to school with the threat of the virus hanging over their heads although some have suggested that if the teachers did not get paid they would move quickly to open the schools. Parents in low income families want the schools open since they cannot afford child care so they cannot return to work. Children in more affluent families are less concerned and all families are not happy with online school. Some people want to cut police budgets or cut police but those who live in low income neighborhoods fear for their safety if police presence is diminished while those who live in gated communities are less concerned. Some feel that protesting for certain reasons is acceptable but other gatherings are not acceptable. The risk to children is very low. Children were 0%-0.3% of all COVID-19 deaths, and 21 states reported zero child deaths For some reason or another, it is difficult to find out how many people 18 or younger in the USA have died from covid but the best guess is less than 50. As of July 14th 7,888 children in Canada have been diagnosed with covid resulting in one death.

Biden tax

Biden says he will raise taxes on those earning over $400,000 and that is roughly the top one percent. He says they should pay their fair share. This one percent currently pays as much income tax as the bottom 90%. They earn 27% of the income and pay 37% of the taxes. He also says that he will reverse the Trump tax cuts which means the middle income families would pay $2,000 more in taxes. Lowest one half of those employed pay no tax so their situation will not change. Americans paid almost $64 billion less in federal income taxes during the first year under the Republican tax overhaul signed into law in late 2017 by President Donald Trump, with some of the sharpest drops clustered among taxpayers earning between $25,000 and $100,000 a year.

Black vote

There are 44 million Black Americans and there have been 20 million black abortions since Roe v Wade (1973). If those aborted had lived there would be twice as many Blacks alive today. In 2016 16 million Blacks voted and that vote count could have been over 30 million. Since Blacks voted 90% democrat that would have meant an additional 12 million votes for Clinton. Clinton lost Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by a total of 100,000 votes. If it were not for abortion, democrats would win almost every election in every state and that is because the abortion rate among Blacks is disproportionately high with 40% of abortions being black while the black population is only 13%. This change would be most noticeable in southern states than normally go republican.

SS benefits

People often ask me what is the best age to start social security and I tell them that no matter what the age you can expect to collect the same total amount. This is because the benefit is paid out on an annuity bases meaning by life expectancy. The average retirement benefit at age 62 is $1,500 per month and at age 70 it is $2,600 per month. Life expectancy for a male age 62 is 18.2 years and for age 70 it is 12.7 years. This comes to $328,000 for the 62 year old and $395,000 for the 70 year old but adjustments must be made for the use of the money between age 62 and 65. If the money at age 62 is invested at 3% for 8 years it grows into $160,000 and that will buy an annuity of $1,100 per month and add that to the $1,500 you would continue to collect and you have the $2,600 that the person starting at age 70 would get. Other personal factors must be considered. If you have a large sum, say several millions in an IRA, you might wait to take your social security for tax purposes. Consideration must be given to health as younger people might want to do the things that money can buy.

Compromise pays off

Too often when people think of negotiations they assume winners and losers but that is not the case when all parties forget politics and stick to business. Here is a report in the new agreement between Canada, Mexico and the US. Nearly everyone is claiming it’s a political and economic victory for them. Democrats give it a thumbs up. Some union leaders give it a thumbs up. So do Mexican and Canadian officials. Many business groups, including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the Business Roundtable and the Farm Bureau, are also applauding it. These kinds of deals would be common place if politics were put aside but once again party is more important than country. The parties have convinced the people to take sides and that protects them from criticism as they can always blame the other side.

Biden's virus plan

Biden released his plan to fight the virus. It has five parts. First he will pursue a vaccine, second free and wide spread testings, third federal unemployment for those laid off, fourth personal protection equipment (PPE) for all in need and fifth wearing mask outside. Except for number five this is Trumps plan currently in force but Trump added research on prophylactics to treat those with the virus along with increased emphasis on seniors treating Eldercare facilities, nursing homes, senior living centers and hospitals with special attention. A claim can always be made that Trump did not act fast enough but Trump canceled flights from China in late January which Biden objected to but a month later agreed with the plan. On February 24 Pelosi gave a speech in China town and said, But also to say to everyone: we should come to Chinatown. Precautions have been taken by our city. We know that there is concern surrounding tourism, traveling all throughout the world, but we think it’s very safe to be in Chinatown and hope that others will come. In mid-March NYC mayor de Blasio told people to keep eating out in bars and restaurants. Another problem was the lack of masks. The US was supposed to have a large supply, But America was supposed to have its own supply of masks in the Strategic National Stockpile, a secretive stash of emergency supplies held in an undisclosed number of warehouses around the country. As of April 1, it was almost out. What happened. According to Bloomberg News, “after the H1N1 influenza outbreak in 2009, which triggered a nationwide shortage of masks and caused a 2- to 3-year backlog orders for the N95 variety, the stockpile distributed about three-quarters of its inventory and didn’t build back the supply.” Even with the benefit of hind sight the Biden plan does not seem that much different from the Trump plan.

Legal protest

Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler was booed by the protesters as he learned what Chamberline learned when he went to Munich. When you appease an alligator he will eat you last. Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot is learning the same lesson as people protest at her home. The Chicago Police are prohibiting protest in neighborhoods, even peaceful demonstrations and there is some question at to the legality of stopping peaceful protest in any area. Meanwhile non-peaceful actions are going on in downtown Chicago.

Unemployment benefits

The pro Trump people say America has never been better and the anti Trumpers say that America is in the toilet. Neither of these positions represent anything close to reality but are indicative of where the country stands today. A good example is the federal unemployment benefit that ended on July 31st. The President proposed they continue the $600 per week till the end of the year and the congress proposed at $200 benefit. Even though there are 400 possible compromise positions they were unable to reach a consensus. Who suffers from this lack of action. All government employees are still getting paid. All retire people are OK as are those on disability and those on public assistance. All people who are still working for private business are getting paid. The ones who are hurting are those on unemployment. Who are these people? They are the working poor, the very same people that politicians always say they are most concerned about. They are now without the federal $600 and by election day their state benefits expire and they will have zero income.

Mask and common sense

Last week the United Arab Emirates (UAE) resumed normal relationships with Israel. 31 members of the United Nations do not recognize Israel as a state and UAE was one of those. The lead story in the news the following day was that Biden recommended that everyone ware masks outside. Another story that day said the computer models project that if everyone wore a mask it would prevent 40,000 deaths. They could have said 140,000 and it would have meant no difference. People understand that mask have become political and thus any science about mask is suspect. I get up at 4 AM and after I shower and do a little house cleaning, I go for a 2 hour walk and then I drive down to the river and fish for a couple of hours. I live 6 miles out in the country and so I don't wear a mask when I walk or when I drive or when I fish since I am the only one around. Wearing a mask at those times makes no sense. When I go to Walmart I wear a mask mostly because it is required. I never cough or sneeze in anyone's face and I rarely talk to anyone in the store but if I do I maintain a safe distance. I know from watching my breath on cold days that the condensate goes out about two feet so staying four feet away is sufficient. I also understand the the virus can go in and out of the mask without any interference and once in the air is spread throughout the store by the AC. The point I am making is that I use common sense when it comes to the virus.

Pension debt

For many years democratic controlled states have offered state employees better and better pensions. The result is that many of these states have pension debt that is draining their economies. These states have long assumed that the federal government would bail them out rather than have them go broke. This dream is coming to fruition with the $3 trillion stimulus proposed by the democrats in congress. One trillion of the stimulus is set aside for paying essential state workers and part of this could be used to pay off pension debt. When the banks became to big to fail the government stepped in to save them. This is referred to a moral hazard meaning the banks took undo risk knowing that the government would save them. The same idea was in the minds of those who allowed the pension debt to grow so large and they may be right.

What is fair

Oprah says that white people have an advantage on the ladder of success. This may very well be true. Tall men have an advantage. 90% of CEO's are taller than average with an edge of 2.5 inches. Attrative women have an advantage and everyone knows it. Black athletes are quicker, can jump higher and run faster. Studies show that good looking people earn on average $230,000 more than their more homely coworkers over the course of their careers. The question is what should be done about this. If equal opportunity is replaced by equal results then some outside force must be used. What?

Slavery

Recently the stark economic differences between black and white Americans are in the news as they should be if something is to be done about it. Many people feel this is the result of 200 years of slavery in the United States. If history could changed would it have been better if Africans were never brought here as slaves and the descendants of the slaves living here would be living in Africa. Africans did not have the wear with all to come here and only the slave trade made it possible. For most people in Africa today life is not very good. Some of the most helpful things for Africans were imported from the west especially in the area of medicine with AIDS and Ebola drugs as recent examples. African-Americans living in the US have access to many things that those in Africa do not. The average income in sub-Sahara Africa where most of the slaves came from is $315 per year.

The establishment

Many of the policies that Trump has implemented and wants to implement were on his mind before he was in politics. He railed against the unfair trade deals and especially with China he wanted to challenge their practice of currency manipulation. He opposed the TPP, the Paris Accords, NAFTA and the Iran nuke deal. He wanted to put America first by having our allies pay their fair share for NATO, WTO, WHO and the United Nations. Over the past 50 years the politicians in cahoots with lobbyist joined forces with big business and big government to move manufacturing jobs overseas. Trump saw this as the reason why the middle income blue collar workers were left behind and his policies raised their wages for the first time in many years. All of these changes and ideas hurt the establishment and they are fighting back and are using Biden to return things to the way they were before Trump. The establishment includes the anti-Trumpers, the bureaucrats, the national press, the educators and the Hollywood crowd. There is some hope in that Biden appears to be taking on some of Trumps ideas.A

Virus vs paycheck

Yesterday I went to Cabela's in Woodbury to get some fishing stuff and the traffic was bumper to bumper and the parking lots were jam packed and there were people of all ages everywhere and this is a community that is trying to decide if they should open the schools. The argument between safety and the economy is in the eye of the beholder. All government workers, federal, state and local are getting paid. All retired people, those on disability and on public assistance are getting paid. People working from home and those on unemployment are getting paid leaving only a small minority who are bearing the brunt of the bad economy. Americans, by a large margin (30%), feel we should not open up the economy. In the case of the schools my guess is that if school administrators and teachers did not get paid the schools would open. Most teachers, especially the younger ones, cannot afford to miss even a few months of income and in many cases both husband and wife are teachers making this a double whammy. While the virus is discussed in terms of safety vs economy the real argument centers around the pay check.

Inflation cause

In Economics 101 the cause for inflation is too much money chasing too few goods. Since 2008 the monetary expansion called quantitative easing along with the current covid spending has caused the money supply to double and yet inflation says at or below 2%. Some say that spending more than you take in will cause inflation but since 2000 the national debt has increased from $5 trillion to $25 trillion and inflation has been 3%. Perhaps the economist were not right and so what causes inflation.

Mask or not

According to articles in Bloomberg News and the LA Times, the country was left short of PPE after the H1N1 flu of 2009. USA Today investigated and found US never spent enough on emergency stockpile. “After the swine flu epidemic in 2009, a safety-equipment industry association and a federally sponsored task force both recommended that depleted supplies of N95 respirator masks, which filter out airborne particles, be replenished by the stockpile During the Swine flu problem of 2009 the government distributed 85 million N95 mask and did not replace them. This forced Dr. Fouci to say masked were not needed by the general public so they could be used by the health care workers. Later when supplies were available he said everyone should wear a mask. This lead to confusion on the part of many as the wearing of mask was not something people had done during past flu problems.

Filibuster

During President Obama's speech at the funeral of John Lewis he joined a chorus of other democrats suggesting that the senate eliminate the filibuster which he called a remnant of Jim Crow days. It requires only simple majority vote to remove the filibuster. The senate was controlled by the democrats in 6 of Obama's eight years in the White House and chose not to take that action. Some democrats have suggested that if Biden wins the presidency and the democrats retake the senate they should vote to eliminate the filibuster. Once done they can then vote to make Washington DC and Puerto Rico states giving them four new senators. Next they can increase the number of Supreme Court Justices to 12 or 15 in put in all liberals. These things are sometimes short term victories as was seen when democrats changed the rules allowing Supreme Court appointees to be approved with a simple majority and that lead to the appointment of Gorsuch and Cavanaugh. Be careful what you wish for.