Monday, November 4, 2024
China
The upside to gridlock may sound like a oxymoron but the case of the Chinese economy clarifies the statement. Getting things done in the US is difficult because the constitution guarantees the separation of powers which means the president cannot act without help from the congress. In China Xi is an authoritarian who can quickly change the entire government. He has eliminated any contenders to power and is thus left standing alone to run the country. There is no one willing to challenge any of his dictates and through a series of bad decisions he has sent the country into a downward spiral. At first the labor cost in China was low enough that foreign companies were willing to put up with the countries irrational decisions but in time they discovered that it was not worthwhile. The use of slave labor and unsafe working conditions began to cause concern by foreign businesses operating in China and his demand that all companies share proprietary information made them uncomfortable. Then China's internal economy began to suffer because of government's almost free money to expand construction which led to a housing bubble and high youth unemployment. This was further aggravated by the now infamous one child policy and foreigners are leaving and taking their business elsewhere. Then Trump placed import taxes on Chinese goods and Xi clamped down on foreign companies and the result is that China is in danger of collapse. The US is in the process of reshoring but it takes time to build new factories and if China falls before the US can replace their imports it will cause serious problems in the US. If the US build up coincides nicely with the Chinese build down, some say it would be providential in the spiritual sense.
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