Saturday, November 16, 2024

China

As WW 2 came to an end, a civil war broke out in China and lasted until 1949 when forces led by Chaing Kai-shek rebelled against Mao Zedong. In the end Chaing's forces fled to Tiawan. Mao wanted to move China from an agrarian economy to a modern industrial society in what was called the Cultural Revolution. During the Mao years an estimated 50 million Chinese people died mostly from starvation as the country tried to survive under the communist government. In 1978 the new leader Deng Xiaoping allowed private individuals a kind of economic freedom called, Reform and Opening Up policy. This started a rapid growth period that was accelerated in 2000 when China was allowed into the World Trade Organization. In 2013 the current president Xi Jinping took over and started to restrict the free market and the country started on a down hill path that continues today. Because of tight government controls and a series of unforced errors China is in a downward spiral. The progress they made caused wages to rise above other countries like Vietnam, Indonesia and Mexico so investors looked to these new areas. China over invested in housing and infrastructure plus excess investments around the world in the Belt and Road policy and they are now unable to recover. Add to this the drastic decline in population and they don't have enough young people to work and consume. China's GDP rose steadily from $200 per capita in 1980 to $12,000 in 2021 but it is now on the decline. To make matters worse the US and other countries are now placing import taxes on Chinese exports and companies are leaving behind trillions in infrastructure as they move away from China. These companies are fearful of Xi's total power over the country as he has changed the constitution to allow him to remain in office for life. The rise and fall coincides with the change in government from communism to a type of free market and back to communism.

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