Wednesday, August 13, 2025

Canada succession

The Canadian Constitution states that any province can secede with a popular vote. In 1995 a referendum in Quebec to secede narrowly failed with a vote of 50.58 vs 49.42. This caused Ottawa to wake up and Quebec started to get funds from the federal government that were inappropriate to their contribution. Many interpreted this as Ottawa bribing Quebec to stay in the union. Quebec, with a population of 10 million is losing residence and has a low birthrate of 1.3 children per woman when 2.1 is required to maintain the population. The big money coming into the federal government is from Alberta and Saskatchewan from oil and natural gas. These two provinces, along with the neighboring provinces of British Columbia and Manitoba, are upset with Ottawa saying they are contributing to maintain Quebec. The push for succession in Alberta is gaining strength but still lacks the majority needed. Some say that the push is just a political maneuver to get Ottawa’s permission to work more closely with the US. The problem was exacerbated by the election of liberal Mark Carney who is a big believer in wind and solar and believes that fossil fuels are endangering the earth. He was a surprise winner in the last election as voters swung away from the conservative candidate Pierre Poilievre when Trump joked about Canada becoming the 51st state.

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