Storm

People often bemoan the fact that the approval of the press has been on the decline since the mid 90’s where it was 35% down to 18% today. There are a number of reasons for this and one is what is euphemistically called hype. They chase after ratings with exaggerations and the recent hurricane in Houston is a good example. All the stations were using superlatives to describe the storm as the worst in history when in fact another storm to hit the Houston in 1900 was worse. The Great Galveston Hurricane was a Category 4 storm, with winds of up to 145 mph (233 km/h), which made landfall on September 8, 1900, in Galveston, Texas, in the United States, leaving about 6,000 to 12,000 dead. It remains to the present day the deadliest natural disaster in US history. The winds were ten miles per hour faster than the 135 in the Houston storm and the storm surge was 15 feet compared to 12 feet. Apparently no news people took the 5 minutes it took me to google storms.

School

As I begin my 5th year as a substitute teacher, I realize that since I have been in every classroom in middle and high school that I have a unique perspective and have some ideas to pass on to the district, ideas that I believe will be helpful. First: Take care of your teachers. Second: Keep disruptive students out of the classroom. Third: Concentrate on the three R’s. Teachers should be given the time, training and tools to get the job done. Reward those who desire to improve their skills and remove those who don’t. Principals should always have the teachers back and the office door should always be open. When it comes time to cut the budget, cut everywhere but the three R’s. If a student graduates with a desire to read and the skill to write the student will become a productive citizen. 95% of what I have learned in life came after I left high school.

NOK

At the risk of repeating myself, I feel it is necessary to assess the North Korean threat. As things stand right now if NOK invaded South Korea the United States could destroy their country without any attack on the US mainland. This status will remain until such time as NOK gets the ability to launch nukes from submarines. With a dozen subs sitting a few hundred miles off the east and west coast along with a couple in the Gulf, the status would be drastically different. After that they could invade South Korea and we could not attack them without risking the destruction of a dozen or so major American cities. Over the past 30 years the US has tried every conceivable non-military approach to deal with NOK but they have all failed, mostly because NOK does not follow up on agreements. In plain words they lie. Most Americans feel that a preemptive strike is not in our DNA but once they get the subs we will be subject to various forms of black mail. At that time they can continue to miniaturize their nukes and send them to their allies around the globe. It is one thing for a suicide bomber to sneak into Israel and blow up a bus but quite another to set off a nuke.

Metals

For many years it was predicted that fossil fuels like coal, oil and natural gas would run out and this was a reason to move to renewable energy sources like wind and solar. This argument was most often made by people who were concerned about climate change but that argument can be made about any energy source. There is a class of materials called rare earth metals, aptly named because they are rare. These metals are critical to today’s high tech society since they are used in things like cell phones, wind turbines, solar panels and flat screed TV’s. China which produces 90% of these metals predicts they will run out in 20 years but climate change devotees seem unaware of this fact. The reason for this blind spot in their thinking is that politics is often more important than science. The reason that China produces most of these metals is that mining of this type is considered bad for the environment and unacceptable in advanced societies like the US and Western Europe. As the demand for these metals continues to increase the number of mines will also increase and that includes the pollution that goes along with these mines.

NOK nukes

North Korea accidentally on purpose reveals some of its military might and yesterday this appeared at a news conference. Hwasong-13 appears to be a three-stage ICBM (Inter Continental Ballistic Missile), while the chart showing Pukguksong-3, although largely obscured by officials, is a Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM). While I have seen many officials speak about the threat of ICBM’s making the 5,000 mile journey to the US, there is rarely any talk about the sub launched nukes that could be 50 miles off shore from New York or LA.

O care

With the failure of the Republicans to pass health care it is time to review just how Obamacare passed. The house had a 58 Democratic majority and easily passed their version of the bill and forwarded that to the senate. The senate with 57 Democrats and two Independents were only one vote short of a filibuster proof 60 votes. Then Arlon Spector a Republican changed parties and they had the 60. That lasted for four months when Senator Kennedy died and the Dems were back to 59. No problem because the Democratic governor of Massachusetts appointed a Democrat Paul Kirk and they were back to 60. The senate then moved quickly to pass the senate version of Obamacare and sent it to the house for reconciliation. There was no particular rush because it was assumed that the special election scheduled for January would elect Kirk but that is not what happened. Republican Scot Brown won and the Dems now were back to 59 votes. The house then came to the rescue by changing the house bill to match the senate and the bill passed 219 to 212 with 34 Dems voting against bill. It was then sent to the president and he signed it into law on March 23rd 2010.

Time to quit

One obvious sign of a neophyte investor is the unwillingness to accept a loss. Many times when a stock drops in value the beginner will hang on to it in the belief that it will come back. Sometime this happens and the investor can recover but all too often they continue to take bigger loses and in time they accept that fact and sell. The country is facing a similar situation in Afghanistan. We have committed almost 2 trillion dollars and lost 2,300 lives and are now faced with the reality of either accepting more losses or just pulling out. After 17 years of fighting maybe it is time to quit. Like the Taliban says, “you got the watches but we got the time”.

Statues

As the race to tear down statues reaches across the land, I am waiting for people to rise up against one of the most horrific racist events of the 20th Century. In 1942 Japanese Americans were sent to internment camps simply base on their heritage. These were American citizens whose rights were summarily revoked because of their race. They committed no crimes, broke no laws and for the most part were tax paying productive citizens. Will those who are intent on cleansing our country of its past mistakes now try to remove statues of FDR? How could this revered man resort to such disgraceful behavior? The answer to this question is the same as the answer to all such questions and you must evaluate this behavior based on the times. This in no way makes things right but it does explain how such things happen. Slavery is the most egregious example of these terrible events but if you go back in time slavery was a way of life. Even Jesus did not oppose slavery but most agree in today’s world he would preach against such behavior.

Pill

Back in the late 80’s I had a neighbor who was opposed to abortion and she asked me if I would go to a lecture with her where an anti-abortion physician was speaking. While I was impressed with the speech I told my friend that the whole issue would become moot when the morning after pill was made available. Well some 30 years later we are seeing the beginning of this prediction. Abortions are down by 20% since 2000. Some say that the plea for abstinence is working while others say that handing out condoms is the cause but people in the know point out that sales of the morning after pill are up 20% during this time frame. You can now purchase Plan B one step at any drug store off the shelf and there is no minimum age and the pill is 90% effective if taken within 72 hours. One pill one time. Use of this pill will continue to rise and abortions will continue to fall. Does the pill kill a fetus? The pill acts in three ways. First it prevents the ovaries from releasing and egg. Second it prevents fertilization and third it stops the fertilized egg from attaching to the uterine wall. For those who believe that life begins at fertilization then the third way would be killing a potential human being.

Memorial

Watching the riots regarding the removal of the statue of Robert E Lee I am reminded that southern plantation owners were not the only slave owners. Fourteen of the founding fathers, including such notables and Washington and Jefferson, were slave owners. There are many statues of these gentlemen around the country along with many schools honoring their names. Perhaps these should be removed and while we are at it how about all of those crosses on the graves at Arlington and don’t forget in God We Trust on our currency. The list of things that some feel we should change is quite lengthy. Some people feel a compromise position is to transfer Lee’s statue to a Civil War Museum and that could work but it would be impractical to put the Washington Monument or the Jefferson Memorial in a building. Perhaps they are too big to fail!

Flag burning

I don’t watch evening TV and recently I got Netflix and started watching a show called, “The West Wing”. It was recorded around 15 years ago and it tends to cover the controversial issues facing the White House at that time. The last show I watched was about a comedy team who entertained in the White House and in part of their routine they burned an American Flag. The next day the President was on his way to an important meeting in China and at the same time South Korea announced they were building a nuclear bomb. On all the news programs all they talked about was the flag burning. I was reminded of President Obamas refusal to say Islamic terrorist and more recently Trump’s refusal to say white supremacy. These items dominate the news even though we have North Korea threatening to blow up the country and tax reform going through the congress. It is a classic case of life imitating art and also the result of the 24 hour news cycle.

Hit first

Here is what the experts say is the problem with North Korea. Almost any plan would bring a high risk of unintended escalation to all-out war, analysts believe. It would place millions of South Korean and Japanese civilians in the cross hairs of North Korean weapons with few guaranteed benefits. Assume that these experts are correct and now watch as North Korea develops the capability of launching nukes from submarines. Next one of those subs hits LA with a nuke. Now we still have the same arguments against retaliation. What do we do? If you say act then you are agreeing that we cannot hit them until they hit us. Is this a sound strategy? It is the government’s responsibility to protect its citizens. Will these citizens agree that we can only strike back when we are hit first? Do we wait for Pearl Harbor?

Diplomats

As the din around North Korea grows louder the voices of doves and hawks rise daily. In order for diplomacy to work there has to be some degree of trust but all too often diplomats fall back on hope. When Chamberlin was taken in by Hitler trust was replaced with hope. When Bill Clinton was taken in by Kim Jong-Un’s father he was counting on Un being and honest broker. Here is the quote from Clinton in 1994. “This is a good deal for the United States,” he said at the time. “North Korea will freeze and then dismantle its nuclear program. South Korea and our other allies will be better protected. The entire world will be safer as we slow the spread of nuclear weapons.” Clinton agreed to allow North Korea to develop nuclear power plants with the promise they would not use any enriched uranium to build a bomb. Sound eerily like the US recent deal with Iran. Diplomats from free countries are always outfoxed by those from dictatorships and they cry out that the other side lied.

Free insurance

Prior to Obamacare many poor people used the hospital emergency room as a type of health care. This is often reported in the news as it is costly. A wider view reveals a different story. Poor people were covered by Medicaid including those with preexisting conditions. Medicaid did not cover adults without children but another program known as Federally Qualified Health Centers did cover these adults without children. There is a health care safety net available to anybody regardless of ability to pay. There are 1,300 Federally Qualified Health Centers serving at least 24 million people a year. These centers offer medical care on a sliding fee scale, based on income, and are heavily dependent on Medicare and Medicaid – and they’ve been around for decades. When Obamacare came out it was 2,700 pages and the press people chose to accept the Presidents assurance that it would do all that he said. If they had investigated they would have discovered that everyone including those with preexisting conditions could get insurance and it was free for low income people and this was before Obamacare. It was just too much work to dig into the details when it was a program that sounded so good to most press people.

Lottery

When the news came out that Trump wants immigrants to speak English there was an outcry heard round the news world and then it suddenly died down. One possible reason is that this has been the law but it is watered down to the place where it is not enforced. The procedure is that during an interview the person must demonstrate proficiency in reading, writing and speaking English but the grading is done in a subjective way and in recent years passing the test has become easier. It is so easy that many people cannot function without help. Once again merely enforcing an existing law will promote better English. When it comes to immigrants those who have relatives here are given a preference so the more of that group you have the more you will get. This means that about 2/3rds of new immigrants are Asian or Hispanic. There is an immigration lottery that allows 55,000 applicants from around the world to gain citizenship and is not based on a relative here. Some feel it would be more fair if the over one million immigrants coming here each year were all chosen by lottery.

Immigration

The discussions over minimum wages have come into conflict with Trumps new plan for immigration. The same groups that opposed immigration rules based on giving preference to those who can earn higher wages are the ones who want higher minimum wages. One thing that keeps wages low is allowing immigrants who have no earning skills to come into the country and one thing that raises wages is to invite immigrants who can earn higher wages. The same goes for speaking English. An immigrant that can speak English will have higher earning power. Several years ago I visited Thailand and while there I looked up jobs in the local paper and found that while the average wage was low, some jobs paid four times higher than average based on the applicant’s ability to speak English, so this is something that occurs in countries other than the US.