Climate

The origins of climate change as a public issue date back to Earth Day in 1970. It was followed by moving away from nuclear power, next replacing coal with natural gas and then tightening fuel standards on cars and trucks and increasing efficiency on appliances. Meetings at the UN and throughout the western world have resulted in little change. In the 1970's CO2 emissions were 15 billion tons per year and in 2023 there were 37 billion tons. The news is filled with articles expounding on the advances in wind and solar but the amount of CO2 keeps increasing. It's like living in two different world, the first is the make believe world that wind and solar are the answer and the second is the real world where they are not the answer. This has been going on for 50 plus years with no reason to believe anything will change. The problem is that there are industries and political careers that depend on staying the course. Climate has gotten wrapped up in politics to where it involves things like Climate Justice. Climate justice connects the climate crisis to the social, racial and environmental issues in which it is deeply entangled. It recognizes the disproportionate impacts of climate change on low-income and BIPOC communities around the world, the people and places least responsible for the problem. BIPOC Black, Indigenous, and People of Color

Nuclear

Nuclear is making a come back in the Infrastructure bill. People have come to understand that zero carbon is not possible without nuclear power. Included in the bill is bipartisan legislation known as the ADVANCE Act that will help us build new reactors at a clip that we haven’t seen since the 1970s.  Also in the bill is money for small reactors. Another development in this bill is its focus on small reactor technologies, known as microreactors.   Also in the Inflation Reduction Act there are funds allocated for nuclear. Momentum is building for U.S. nuclear energy and the investments and tax incentives included in IRA guarantee a commitment to nuclear energy that will continue well throughout the nation’s journey to net-zero. In states many new bill are being introduce to promote nuclear power. Five years ago only 10 bills were introduced and last year there were 200. Environmentalist are now including nuclear when they talk about carbon free and venture capitalist are showing interest. China is still leading the way but America is waking up.

Election

The political pundits and the polls indicate a close election and the experts say that the results will depend on turn out meaning which team has the best ground game which means ballot harvesting. Most agree that a large turn out is good for democracy but some question the value of low information voters. Thomas Jefferson said, an educated citizenry is a vital requisite for our survival as a free people. Is an uninformed vote better than a non vote. Can uninformed voters be convinced by the harvester to vote a certain way and if so is that good for democracy. These are puzzling questions. In states where the practice is legal, volunteers or campaign workers can go directly to the homes of voters, collect the completed ballots, and drop them off en masse at polling places or election offices. In some states, ballot harvesters can be paid hourly for their work To many this seems like an open invitation to unscrupulous activity. Over the years many states have realized the possible misuse and have changed laws to limit this practice.

Stimulus

More than 476 million payments totaling $814 billion in financial relief went to households impacted by the pandemic. March 2020. First stimulus sent $1,200 to each tax filer and $500 to each child December 2020. Second stimulus sent $600 to each tax filer and $600 to each child March 2021. Third stimulus sent $1,400 to each tax filer and $1,400 to each child This meant a family of four received $11,400. It is not surprising that all of this money went into the economy and that spending it just ended in April of this year. This does not include another $5 trillion that went to other entities including businesses and unemployment compensation. People who normally did not qualify for unemployment suddenly got benefits. As a substitute teacher, I qualified for unemployment and not only received my state money but also $600 per week for 16 weeks. All in all my wife and I received $6,400 in stimulus and $9,600 in unemployment. Then in late 2021, I get another check for $3,500 and I have no idea what that was for. I did not need this money and there are many other retired people who did not need the money. The net result was that working families ended up paying for all this through inflation. It always seems that the most in need get the shaft.

Foreign policy

The US should take on a new role in foreign policy as reshoring brings jobs back home. The first place to start is in the Middle East. The Abraham Accords will unite the Arab countries of UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan with Jordan and Egypt who already have peace agreements with Israel and all of these will work with the US in bringing Saudi Arabia on board. The Saudi's are willing to join in order to receive protection from the US to prevent Iran from taking over their oil fields. With this new agreement the US will back Israel with all that is needed to completely destroy Hamas. The next step will be to get the Arab countries to agree to finance the rebuilding of Gaza using Israeli construction companies and Palestinian labor. Once this is completed, elections will be held in both Gaza and the West Bank where new leadership, somewhat like the old PLO that preceded Hamas, is put in place. At this point the two state solution becomes possible. While this is going on the US will lead NATO to negotiate a peace in Ukraine. The next step is to have the European Union countries fiance the rebuilding of Ukraine, which will allow Russia back into the communities of the West with trade and commerce. The new role for the US will not involve US military or US money. The US will assume a leadership role in bringing various groups together to promote common goals.

Preemies

A couple of years ago when Roe was overturned the abortion issue was widely discussed and this led to the fact that some babies are born after a botched abortion attempt and they were then allowed to die. This information was not public knowledge because under the law that would be murder. This led others to bring up what happens when very old and sick people require special and usually expensive care. It turns out that many times care is limited or refused. As the population ages and there are fewer working age people to cover the expenses of the retired people pressure will build to limit care for the elderly. When the life of a damaged child due to an abortion is devalued this carries over to unborn children with various defects which can easily be transferred to sick old people. It is easy to make a strong argument that a 90 year old man with a bad liver should not be eligible for a heart transplant. From there you just lower the age and other conditions to slowly get rid of old people who are seen as a financial drain on society. In 2016, the annual societal economic cost (medical, educational, and lost productivity) associated with preterm birth in the United States was at least $25.2 billion.

Election

The Trumpification of the country is almost complete as witnessed by the changes in candidate Harris. It climaxed with her border speech when she said, "If someone does not make an asylum request at a legal point of entry and instead crosses our border unlawfully, they will be barred from receiving asylum,". Our system must be orderly and secure, and that is my goal." Climate change is gone as an issue since both parties now support maximum production of fossil fuels. Both candidates are pro choice. Both have strong support for Israel. Both want to keep import taxes on China. Both are promoting de globalization. Both want lower taxes on working people. Both have abandon any concern about the national debt has each has proposed massive spending programs. Both want to conserve social security and Medicaid. Both promise to keep and improve Obamacare. Harris no longer supports national health insurance. She no longer supports reparations. She is no longer anti fracking. The only place they differ is the war in Ukraine. Harris wants to continue as long as it takes and Trump wants to negotiate a peace. The fears that Trump will become a dictator and end democracy are unfounded since he had the perfect opportunity to do that with Covid when he was president. The national crisis represented what happened during the civil war when Lincoln suspended habeas corpus which many referred to as declaring martial law. Trump challenged the election results but left the White House peacefully when his term was up.

Poverty

Over the past 50 years the US has spent $30 trillion on the war on poverty. Thus, government at all levels is spending roughly $1.8 trillion per year to fight poverty (Figure 1). Stretching back to 1965, when President Lyndon Johnson first declared a “war on poverty,” anti-poverty spending has totaled more than $30 trillion. In 1980 the poverty rate was 13.2% with 29 million living in poverty. Today the poverty rate is 11.3% with 38 million living in poverty. To power the US it would take about 1,400 nuclear power plant at a cost of $5 billion dollars each for a total cost of $7 trillion or one sixth of what has been spent on poverty. If small nuclear units were used instead it would take 14,000 but the cost would be less because of economies of scale as they would be mass produced assembly line style.

TD bank

It was announced today that the Toronto Dominion Bank was fined $3 billion dollars after admitting that the bank laundered money for criminal enterprises including illegal drugs. This banks assets are $2,000 billion and this fine means nothing. Once again the big wheels get off without anyone going to jail. TD had $1.97 trillion in assets on July 31, 2024. In time and after further investigation some underlings may go to jail much like happened in the mortgage scandal of 2008. What ever happened to the buck stops here.

Housing

Back in 1959 when I bought my first house it was in a neighborhood that was previously a corn field and the houses were small two or there bedroom homes built on a slab. The people buying these homes were white working class citizens and in many parts of the country Blacks were not allowed because of the fear that would lower the value of the homes. Fast forward 70 years and the same principal remains and can best be seen in California. This state is overwhelmingly liberal and has the highest housing cost in the country. The reason is that people will not allow multi-housing units to be built in their neighborhoods. People of any color are welcome assuming they can afford to live there but working people are not in that group. The people in these neighborhoods fear that if multi housing units are allowed in that will lower the value of their property so they are zoned out. Same old story but Blacks have been replaced by working people of any color. The people living in these areas are just ordinary folks who believe in equality and in many cases equity but not in their back yard.

Social security

How to calculate your social security retirement benefit. Take all earnings between ages 22 and 62, then subtract the lowest five years and multiply each year by a factor for that year and add the total and that becomes your primary insurance amount. For almost everyone this means the wages you earned between ages 27 and 62. If the plan is to privatize social security you start next year with everyone who turns age 27. Each employee contributes 6.2% of their salary to SS and this is matched by the employer. 2.2% of that is used to provide for disability benefits and survivor benefit leaving 8% to go into a saving plan. The plan will be much like the federal government savings plan that started in 1957. These are life cycle funds that are adjusted each year based on your age. All people over age 27 next year will continue in the SS program. This is a way to transfer the SS program to a private program which allows the employee to own his account. This will eliminate the racist bias that now exist and go a long way toward closing the wealth gap.

Election

The Trumpification of the country is almost complete as witnessed by the changes in candidate Harris. It climaxed with her border speech when she said, "If someone does not make an asylum request at a legal point of entry and instead crosses our border unlawfully, they will be barred from receiving asylum,". Our system must be orderly and secure, and that is my goal." Climate change is gone as an issue since both parties now support maximum production of fossil fuels. Both candidates are pro choice. Both have strong support for Israel. Both want to keep import taxes on China. Both are promoting de globalization. Both want lower taxes on working people. Both have abandon any concern about the national debt has each has proposed massive spending programs. Both want to conserve social security and Medicaid. Both promise to keep and improve Obamacare. Harris no longer supports national health insurance. She no longer supports reparations. She is no longer anti fracking. The only place they differ is the war in Ukraine. Harris wants to continue as long as it takes and Trump wants to negotiate a peace. The fears that Trump will become a dictator and end democracy are unfounded since he had the perfect opportunity to do that with Covid when he was president. The national crisis represented what happened during the civil war when Lincoln suspended habeas corpus which many referred to as declaring martial law. Trump challenged the election results but left the White House peacefully when his term was up.

Corn

Because of the war, Ukraine was unable to ship grain out using the Black Sea so they created a corridor through Romania and Bulgaria. Russia recently attacked three grain ships in this area which means grain coming from Ukraine may be in jeopardy. Under current law 40% of US corn must be used for ethanol. When people start going hungry in parts of the world will it be time to change the law and start using corn as feed. It has already been shown that this way to manufacture fuel is not reducing CO2.

Banning

The Twitter files is a report issued by several private journalist who were given permission by Musk to investigate at first why Trump was banned. The results was more far reaching than the Trump incident. These journalist discovered that various government agencies, most notable the FBI, would send information to the different social media sites warning them of certain mis or dis information and they should handle this info according to their company policy. They did not say that this info should be banned but subsequent checks revealed that often times it was banned. This apparently been going on for years but only came to the attention of the public with the release of the Twitter files. Many individuals were aware of this because they found themselves being banned. It normally came to their attention when they discovered that their post were not being sent to their subscribers in a process called shadow banning.

Rust belt

Private investment in construction spending has been on the increase since 2011 when it was $500 billion and $1570 billion in 2023. This is expected to continue to increase over the next ten years as the US industrial complex must replace foreign imports as the country brings manufacturing jobs back home. This is being encouraged by both the Trump and Biden administrations as they increase import taxes primarily on Chinese goods. This is a reversal of the global policies that hurt the manufacturing sector over the thirty years between 1980 and 2010. This was the time when corporate profits rose by using cheap and sometimes slave labor to make products in China. This was the time when CEO salaries went from 42 times the average hourly worker in 1980 to 365 times in 2020. While this was going millions of good paying union jobs in manufacturing were sent overseas resulting in the rust belt in Middle America. All the time this was going on politicians were claiming they were backing the working man. This was exemplified by Teamster President Sean O'Brien who said "I'm a Democrat, but they have f---ed us over for the last 40 years," O'Brien said during a sit-down with Theo Von for the comedian's "This Past Weekend" podcast. "And for once — and not all — but for once, we're standing up as a union, probably the only one right now, saying, ‘what the f--- have you done for us?’" He went on to say, during the past two years the union has given $15.7 million to the democrats and $340,000 to the republicans. Many Blacks and Union members feel the democrats have taken their support for granted.

Plants

The re industrialization of the country is well underway and most people are not aware of just what is happening. Factories are going up across the nation with little or no knowledge by the public. In a small Pennsylvania town on the Ohio border Shell Penn Petrochemical Company is building a new facility. It will convert natural gas into usable chemicals to build plastics. It's a $14 billion dollar project started in 2015 by moving millions of cubic yards of dirt, building new bridges, a new rail line and relocating a highway. 5,000 employees are working on construction and the site will have four processing units to make polyethelene. A natural gas power plant will be built just to supply electricity to the chemical plants. A new gas pipeline will be constructed to bring in gas from the fields 100 miles away, a 900 foot cooling tower, a rail system with over 3,000 freight cars, and numerous loading facilities for both trains and trucks, a water treatment plant, an office building, a new laboratory and an innovation center are all part of the project. When finished it will provide 600 full time jobs to run the operation. These will be mostly blue collar jobs where employees will be trained on the job, where the pay and benefits will be top notch. Operations began in November of 2022 and the plant is producing one million tons of plastic pellets each year. This is just one example of what is going on all across America and will continue well into the future.

Climate

In August of last year while visiting the damage caused by Hurricane Idalia Biden said, "I don't think anybody can deny the impact of the climate crisis anymore" and we haven't heard much about climate since. While climate has always been portrayed as an environmental issue, the silence tends to lean more toward a political issue. Since during the Trump and Biden years the production of fossil fuels have been a record levels no one wants to talk about it, plus polls show the people do not see it as an important issue.

Taxes

The Trump corporation tax cuts in 2017 lowered the rate from 35% to 21% and increased depreciation schedules on most new purchases. The plan doubled the standard deduction and doubled the child tax credit which lowered the taxes for most people. The change in corporate tax started the ball rolling as deglobalization came into play. In addition Trump placed import taxes on Chinese goods which further encouraged new plant development in the US. Biden continued the import taxes and added more while passing the Chips Act which gave tax incentives for US companies to bring manufacturing back home. The US must double its industrial base over the next ten years to be able to produce here at home all of the products it has been importing from China and other countries. If Trump is elected he will renew the 2017 tax cuts which are due to expire at the end of 2025. In addition Trump has now proposed reducing the corporate tax to 15% for companies that manufacture and sell inside the US. He also will remove taxes from TIPS and on social security benefits and taxes on overtime pay and increase the child tax credit to $5,000. These changes will basically remove income tax from working people. As these people get the new high paying jobs that are coming with new manufacturing jobs they will spur economic growth with their newly freed up tax free income. While the upside to this is a booming economy the downside is high inflation for about five years while production catches up with demand. Example. John police officer earns $70,000 plus $10,000 overtime Mary waitress earns $35,000 which includes $30,000 in TIPS. Under current law this couple pays $6,700 in taxes. Under the new law they will not only not pay taxes but they will get a $5,600 refund. This puts an extra $12,300 in their pockets. Example. Jack age 65 retired gets $3,000 per month from SS and Jill his wife age 65 gets $1,500 per month. Jack has a pension of $3,000 per month and Jill has pension of $1,200 per month and they take out $4,000 per year from their IRA. Their total gross income is $108,000 and the pay $5,500 in taxes. Under the new law they will pay $2,400 in taxes.

CIA

When WW 2 started the government realized it needed to have spies around the world to collect data to help fight against the enemies and it established the Office of Strategic Services (OSS). During the war this grew into a formidable operation. At the end of the war Truman ended the OSS saying there was too much power in the hands of unelected people. Within two years the Soviet Union became a threat and Truman set aside his feeling about bureaucrats and formed the CIA. Today the US intelligence community is made up of 18 organizations that work to analyze, evaluate and disseminate information and they employ over 100,000 people with budget of $100 billion dollars. Add to this the 70 years that J Edgar Hoover collected information secretly on millions of citizens. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer showed an understanding of the power in these agencies when he said, "Let me tell you, you take on the intelligence community, they have six ways from Sunday of getting back at you". These groups can work outside the law and when congress tries to oversee what they are doing, they just respond by saying it is national security work so we cannot discuss anything we are doing. This is only one part of the deep state which includes people in leadership positions and many government agencies. These unnamed un elected bureaucrats are running the country and the congress thinks they are in control.

Nuclear

When discussing climate change there are some basics that most agree upon. First that the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is increasing. Second there is a limited supply of fossil fuels. Third wind and solar cannot replace fossil fuels without poisoning the ground water. Forth the need for energy will keep increasing. This leads to the use of nuclear power to save the day but who opposes that. The fossil fuel industry for one and the wind and solar industry for another. As long as these two entities control the dialog the longer nuclear will stay in the background. It is up to the scientist to awaken the people to the fact that future energy supplies are threatened and nuclear power is the only answer. This will eventually happen but will it be too late to prevent a serious curtailment of the economy before people wake up. The government has had some support for nuclear energy going back to Eisenhower who started the Atoms For Peace program. From 1966 to 1977 seventy five nuclear power plants with 90 reactors were built but only one since then. President Clinton proclaimed the all of the above energy policy but nuclear got little attention. Cheap oil and loud voices in the green new deal are keeping nuclear from developing.

Government

What will be the governments role in the coming era of deglobalization. As always the constitution should lead the way. The government should be ready, willing and able to defend the country against foreign threats. The government must expose and correct any private or public corruption. The government must encourage state and local authorities to create safe neighborhoods. The government must have a safety net for those who need extra help. The government must promote economic growth by using realistic regulations. The government must create an atmosphere where innovation thrives and individual dreams can be achieved. And finally it should be a government of the people, by the people and for the people.

Deep state

Eisenhower warned about the military industrial complex but there is more to it than that. Wall Street joins with the State Department, big corporations partner with the Defense Department and Homeland Security lines up with Silicon Valley. The revolving door between retired generals and big corporations is the oil in the bureaucratic machine that keeps the whole group working in tandem. The Treasury Department is the fast road to Wall Street big money jobs. Homeland Security is the path to Silicon Valley employment. Recent revelations show how former government officials held high positions in Twitter. This whole buddy system is not ideological, that is liberal or conservative, it is based on money and influence. It is the deep state. This is not a conspiracy that is hidden, it is alive and well and in plain site. They are not concerned since there are six companies that own the news media which is a just another part of the group. This whole kabal was not the result of some master plan but rather a slow development over the past 50 years. It is the way big companies grow if left unchecked. Those involved suffer from group think without realizing they have been co opted. This group has no concern about working people. They pushed ahead with globalization which sent the factory jobs overseas and led to areas like the rust belt while the wealth gap grew ever larger. Elected officials continue to believe that they are running the country when in fact they are just cogs in the wheel of this giant bureaucracy. The country starting about 10 years ago began to wake up and the first step was to challenge the global economy. It seems providential that at just this time Russia is blowing itself up and China is running out of people, opening the door for citizens of North America to begin the long process of returning power to the people.

Mexico

The rather extraordinary new president of Mexico is Claudia Sheinbaum. She is a populist from the left which shows that populism is not ideological. She succeeds Orbrador who was also a populist. She won 59% of the vote as the first female president. She is not Mexican but a Jew whose grandparents came from Lithuania. She is a Jew in a country that is mostly Catholic and only one percent Jewish. She has a PhD in Engineering. She like Orbrado before her proudly professes her independence from the US but in practice relies heavily on US trade which has resulted in lifting 9 million Mexicans out of poverty. The original NAFTA agreement hurt Mexican workers and caused their wages to drop. The new USMCA was a boon to Mexican workers. It increased trade and investment between Mexico and the US. It helped workers to form unions and secure better wages and working conditions. It helped labor reforms and set up training centers. It made it easier for small business to participate with US government procurement. Mexico is now the US largest trade partner having surpassed China.

Abortion

The new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds 61% of Americans say abortion should be legal in most or all circumstances in the first trimester of a pregnancy. However, 65% said abortion should usually be illegal in the second trimester, and 80% said that about the third trimester. Trump's position is in line with that since he says abortions should be legal up to 15 weeks with exceptions for rape, incest and life of the mother. Harris positions is not in line with the majority since she says abortions should be legal anytime including second and third trimesters. Melania Trump revealed her support for abortion rights Thursday ahead of the release of her upcoming memoir, exposing a stark contrast with her husband, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, on the crucial election issue. The article must mean that Malania supports late term abortions but it does not say that. The majority of women say they support abortion but they do not include late term abortions, that is abortions after 22 weeks.

Tariffs

The press is reporting that the Trump import taxes on Chinese goods will raise prices on American consumers and they are right. Trump placed import taxes on billions of dollars of goods from China and Biden kept these taxes. President Biden has increased the tax on EV's from China from 25% to 100%. In May Biden announced he would impose tariffs on steel, aluminum, semiconductors, batteries, minerals, solar cells,ship to shore cranes and medical products. Economist all agree that tariffs are not a good thing but they change their minds when countries use unfair tactics to keep their prices low.

Blockade

Some commentators are discussing bombing Kharg Island where Iran loads their oil tankers but no one seems to consider just putting up a blockade near the Straits of Hormuz. The Iranian ships could be turned back while allowing others from Saudi Arabia, Qutar and UAE to pass to provide oil for China and other far east countries.

REC's

Renewable Energy Certificates (REC's) are issued when a wind farm or solar farm or a home owner produces one megawatt-hour (MWh) of electricity so one REC is earned for each MWh. That REC can now be sold at the current market price. Companies will buy these REC's to meet their renewable goals. Amazon for example can purchase these and then say they are 100 % renewable even though the are still getting power from fossil fuel plants. The same is true for other industries.

LNG

Because of fracking the US has an abundance of natural gas which keeps energy prices low. Ammonia is made from natural gas and is responsible for the increase in grain production which has been significant. In 1950 corn production was 37 bushels per acre and today it is 177. The same is true for all crops and this has kept many countries from suffering from low food supplies. Natural gas is the main feed stock for chemical companies and many European companies are relocating to the US because of the low price of gas. Natural gas in the US cost about $2 and in Europe it is $8. Home heating cost in the US are four times cheaper than in Europe. If the US would go to natural gas for transportation the fuel cost would be cut in half. The US is the largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and expected to double exports by 2028. The US has 8 LNG export facilities and expected to have 17 more in the next five years. The expanded use of natural gas will do more to bring down the the problem of climate change than anything else other than going to nuclear power.

War

More specifically, when a renewable energy generator, like a wind or solar farm, produces one megawatt-hour (MWh) of electricity, exactly one REC is created. That REC can now be purchased and retired by anyone who uses a MWh of electricity. When that happens, they have officially used that renewable energy. Arcadia partners with renewable energy generators to source, verify, purchase and most importantly retire RECs on your behalf. Remember, once a REC is retired, it can never be sold again, as you’ve officially consumed that renewable energy.

China

The Chinese economy operates in a different manner than the US and can easily be misunderstood by the West. For example if the Chinese government wants to influence production cost it does not interact directly by offering cash incentives. It would not give cash to the steel industry but it might offer low interest loans or charge lower rates for electricity or not enforce certain regulations. If they wanted to buy or sell large amounts of US dollars they would not use the central bank since they have many state banks who could do that without the general public realizing what was going on.

Reshoring

Reshoring is on the way Companies invested a record $19.7 billion in June 2024 in the construction of manufacturing facilities, up by 18.6% from the already surging levels in June 2023, up by nearly 100% from June 2022, and up by 209% from June 2019, according to the Census Bureau today.

Copper

Americans don't like mining. The big elephant in the room regarding mining is even more problematic than is currently understood. The experts today talk about how the materials needed for wind and solar are mostly mined and Americans don't like mines and so most are mined in other countries. When the need for additional materials is calculated it is based on current mining cost but this is misleading. Take for example the mining of copper and all the other elements would tell the same story. In the last century mining for copper began with digging up the ore and crushing it into particles about 150 microns in size which is about half the size of a human hair. The ore itself was about three percent copper. These particles are then put in an aqueous solution where bubbles of air are introduced. Copper does not like water so it grabs onto an air bubble and rises to the top forming a foam which is scooped off. The foam contains 25% copper and this is further concentrated. The copper in the form of copper sulfate is then refined in a furnace to 99% purity. This whole process remains in effect today but the low hanging fruit has been mined so that the new mines contain copper at point one percent instead of three percent meaning 30 times more ore must be mined to get the same amount of copper. This lower concentration of the ore must be taken into account when final cost is calculated and also the additional piles of waste.

Income gap

Medicare withholds 1.45% of salary up to $200,000 for couples at which time it increases by .9% to 2.35% and this is matched by the employer. It covers all income with no upper limit. Social security is 6.2% from employer and employee up to $168,000. In order to close the income gap social security contributions could be increase to cover all income much like Medicare. Another step would be to have no social security deductions on the first $50,000 and then double the deductions to 12.8%. While most families with incomes below $50,000 pay no income tax they all pay social security tax. These are changes that can be made without any additional government agencies since social security and Medicare are already in place. Another way to reduce the gap is by making changes in the earned income tax credit (EITC) which started in 1975. Prior to that time if you were receiving public assistance (welfare) and went to work you would lose some or all of your public income. The government wanted to encourage people to work but in typical government fashion they just didn't eliminate the penalty for working they kept the penalty but added the EITC. Here is a typical benefit. A mother with two children works and earns $20,000 receives $5,500 in EITC but if she earns $40,000 the EITC drops to $2,100. This could be increased both in the earnings and in the benefit, once again without any new programs. A third way to help close the gap is the Child Tax Credit which is currently set at $2,000 per child could be increased to $5,000 and that would mean that a family of four would pay no income tax on earnings up to $140,000. Once again this requires no additional programs. Forth is to remove income tax on the first $50,000 of social security benefits. If these four suggestions were initiated the income gap would be cut in half over night. Until recently most people were not comfortable with income redistribution but the gap has gotten so wide that many are now willing to look at changes. Currently the top 20% of wage earners receive 50% of the income.

Population

An expert is a man who knows more and more about less and less until he finally knows every thing about nothing. Here are a couple of examples. In 1800 an expert in population Robert Malthus predicted that starvation was on the way because of over population The theory states that the supply of food cannot keep up with the growth of the human population, inevitably resulting in disease, famine, war, and calamity. What he did not anticipate was the industrial revolution which resulted in excess food. In 1968 a scientist, Paul Ehrlich wrote a book called,"The Population Bomb", From the opening page, it predicted worldwide famines due to overpopulation, as well as other major societal upheavals and advocated immediate action to limit population growth Here we are today only 60 years after Ehrlich's book and the world is facing depopulation. Here is a quote from the well known Medical magazine Lancet in March of this year By 2050, over three-quarters (155 of 204) of countries will not have high enough fertility rates to sustain population size over time; this will increase to 97% of countries (198 of 204) by 2100. As little as five years ago there were many articles predicting the world's population would increase to10 billion. Today the experts are predicting the population will decline.

Energy

Almost all of the economic progress made by civilization has occurred since the industrial revolution which began about the time America became a country. The basis of this progress was energy beginning with coal and moving into oil and natural gas or what are called fossil fuels. Because of energy, billions of people are no longer starving and other billions are enjoying healthier and longer life times. This can only continue as long as cheap energy is available but people are concerned that this energy, will in itself, destroy the world. The goal toward zero carbon is a waste of time as it just delays the ultimate answer which is nuclear power. Certain groups use the farce of zero carbon to promote social agendas and thus delay the march toward true clean energy which is nuclear. Ordinary citizens are asked to perform certain task to reduce carbon, things like sorting their garbage and ethanol from corn. The facts are clear that these things add carbon. The same is true of organic foods which add more carbon. Other things are even more ridiculous like getting rid of old light bulb, small volume toilet flushing and gas stoves are all just distractions. Meanwhile a billion people, mostly in Africa, are still using wood and dung to cook, heat and light. It is time for the scientific world to wake up and educate the political class in the physics of energy.

Prosperity

In the coming years the US will be called upon once again to bring the world from the edge of disaster as happened after WW 2. The Ukraine War is slowly destroying Russia and the Chinese economy is falling apart because of incompetent leadership which leaves North America as the dominating world power just as it was in the 1950's. After the US adjusts to the loss of globalization by doubling its industrial base it will be in a position to reach out and help Europe. At the start some countries will be aligned with the US and get a head start in the new world economy. Australia and Japan are ready to partner with the US and England is looking in that direction. The rest of Europe will see the many opportunities to partner with North American and the US government will help them join. North America will be independent from the rest of the world but will want to help just as it did after WW 2. This could lead to many years of peace and prosperity. Then the next step will to bring Africa into the modern world. All of these things can be accomplished if the right leadership arises to the challenge and that is a big if.

Immigration

Who is the ideal immigrant for the US at this time. He or she should be young, between 18 and 30 and fluent in English. It cost the government about $150,000 to educate a student from K thru 12 and basically what they learn is to speak, read and write English. An 18 year old immigrate who is fluent can do that. These young people are ready to fill the entry level jobs, they will marry and have children and become consumers. The value of the working force is two fold. First it produces and second in consumes. They will have 40 years to work to help pay for their retirement. Legal immigration allows the government to screen and select migrants who have more formal education, with particular job skills and can speak English. The illegals coming across the southern border will have to learn the language and the faster they do that the better jobs become available to them. The part of this group that is most problematic are young families because the children will take up space in schools and cost the government money for their education and it will be a number of years until they can contribute in the form of producing and consuming. Many native students struggle in school and students who cannot speak the language are at a further disadvantage. Young working age immigrants should be issued individual taxpayer identification numbers (ITIN's) which allows them to legally work. After five years of working they should be eligible for a Green Card which is the next step toward citizenship. To gain citizenship the applicant must show proficiency in English. This whole process will allow the country continue to accept legal immigrants while dealing with the influx of illegal migrants. This seemingly logical step by step plan to solve the immigration situation will be totally discarded by government infighting.

Border bill

During the 2022 mid term elections the expected red wave did not materialize and many experts blamed Trump because his preferred candidates lost 4 senate races, 11 house races and 10 governor races. The backing by Trump proved to be a flop. Fast forward to the vote on the immigration plan of 2024. Here the press said the bill failed because Trump pushed a no vote. In just two years Trump went from having very little influence to having a lot of influence. Chances are there were other important factors that determined the vote and not just Trump. One of these is that the bill would have allowed an unlimited number of illegal migrant children to enter the country. If this had passed the word would have gone out around the world and children from many countries would have been on their way to America. Another reason for failure was the bill was because of the $118 billion dollar cost only $20 billion went to the border.

De globalization

When the Soviet Union fell in 1990 the US realized it no longer had to protect the ocean shipping lanes for its allies and the door was opened for bringing manufacturing jobs back home. The need for shorter supply lines, which Covid emphasized, and the desire for customers to receive products promptly was a major influence in reshoring. The labor costs, particularly in China, were rising quickly. This cuts out the middle man, mostly transportation cost, which have doubled in recent years. The US has a skilled work force. The risk of patent infringement is much less when making things at home. The technology advancements will allow the new plants to be more efficient. The Chinese economy is suffering from many directions and the hope is they will decline slowly so the US has time to build up its industrial base to take on the new manufacturing that will be needed to replace the imports. Over the next ten years there will be millions of good paying, hopefully union, jobs that will require a high school education. Those going to college, unless they have economic security, will have to choose their studies based on the needs of business and many businesses will be setting up programs to help students in particular areas of study.

Reshoring

Reshoring is the word used to describe being jobs back home. It is helpful to look as a specific case. Appliances are one of the industries seeing the greatest employment growth. GE has just opened a plant that will be the prototype of many new plants. It is a state of the art water heater plant in New Jersey that will be vertically integrated meaning it will make many of the parts on site not just the finished product. Things like metal fabrication, welding and enameling of the steel. The plant is designed for future expansion. The plant will use high tech robotics run by team leaders and maintenance employees who will be trained on site. These will be high school grads whose productivity will be enhanced by machines and whose value will be rewarded with high pay and benefits.

Regulations

Many contend that there is a forth branch of government called the bureaucracy and it has gained far too much power because congress has gotten lazy and just turned over the running of the government to these various agencies. The recent Supreme Court ruling overturned the Chevron v Natural Resources case and it limited the power of agencies. This was heralded by many as a step in the right direction. These agencies are like Topsy, they just grow. Take the example of the city that is over run by stray dogs and they need to hire a dog catcher. They want someone who will do a good job, someone who is ambitious and willing to work long hours. They find the right candidate and he sets out on his goal of being the best dog catcher in history and the city fathers promise to help him in any way they can. He first needs a facility to house the strays which means a new building. Next he says this is a 24/7 job and he needs at least three assistance and a special wagon to collect the dogs. Each of the collected animals must be inspected by a veterinarian who in turn must give them shots. There must be special facilities constructed to take care of the animals that the Vet decides to put to sleep. A person is hired to care for the kennel and help to place the dogs in proper homes. Within a few years the problem is under control but the dog catcher is looking for ways to improve his department which he says will require more people. And that is the way a good department is run. Each year they need a bigger budget so with government agencies this means enacting more regulations. Forbes Magazine recently publish information on the cost of regulations at $3 trillion per year. That $3 trillion breaks down to $277,000 in average annual compliance costs for a typical U.S. firm. The report further notes that “The cost per employee for the typical U.S. firm is almost $13,000. This cost of federal regulation in the typical U.S. firm equals 19% of payroll expenditures.”

Free speech

The Covid experience did many things, one of which was to expose the idea of misinformation as a threat to free speech. Case in point. Dr Jay Bhattacharya was blacklisted for raising questions about how school lock downs might affect the nation's children. Later Dr Fauci said keeping schools shut down for so long amid Covid was not a good idea. Conversely President Biden said if you get the shot you won't get Covid and if you get the shot you won't pass on Covid. Here is a quote from Biden at a CNN town hall meeting. "You’re not going to get Covid if you have these vaccinations.” ;'

War

As the Ukraine War drags on the question arises as to who is this benefiting and the answer is found in the old adage, follow the money. WASHINGTON, Oct 27, 2023 (Reuters) - The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 is starting to boost defense contractors' revenues, as customers such as the U.S. government restock supplies shipped to Ukraine and countries around Europe arm themselves with an eye on Moscow's aggressions. Big defense contractors are doing OK. Since the war started General Dynamics stock has gone from 200 to 300. Lockheed Martin from 340 to 580. Northrup Grumen 350 to 520.

Zoomers

As the US moves merrily along its journey toward re industrialization, there will be a shortage of young workers, people 25 and under. These are the Gen Z's called zoomers born between 1997 and 2012. Data shows that half of this group are hard working socially adaptable and the other half are people who want to work alone. There will be a labor shortage in this group and it will be augmented by migrants coming across the southern border. These people will be an integral part of the expansion caused by the reshoring of manufacturing jobs. In past centuries, factory work was crowded, dirty, and dangerous. It was manual labor with few safety nets or workplace regulations. But reforms and modernization have turned the industry around. Manufacturing offers solid benefits, competitive salaries, and the chance to use your hands—and your brain. One good example is the textile industry. All of the clothes that used to be made in America were shipped to Mexico and later to Asia. During the Covid imports of clothes were curtailed and an interesting thing happened. Small businesses in North Carolina started up new clothing companies using high tech and modern methods and are now making clothes cheaper than those made in Bangladesh. These jobs will require a high school education and people will work side by side with robots making workflow faster, safer and more efficient. Instead of doing the work, these people will program and run the machines that do the work. These will be good paying jobs, many union, with benefits. It is a good time to be a young person in America.

Blades

Nuclear waste from 60 plus years in the US is stored in safe containers at various locations including at power plants. If all of this waste was placed in one location it would take up an area the size of a football field and it would be pilled 30 feet high. A football field is 1.3 acres. Here is just one site where wind blades are stored. Right across the road from the town cemetery in Sweetwater, Texas, sits another graveyard where the dead are never buried. Some 4,000 worn-out giant wind turbine blades are piled as far as the eye can see, taking up most of a 25-acre field. Over all in the US some 8,000 blades were pulled down in 2021 and between 10,000 and 20,000 blades are expected to be at the of their lifespan between 2025 and 2040. The overall result of replacing fossil fuel with wind and solar is just exchanging clear air for dirty water. It is happening every where materials needed for the new green deal are mined.

Green

As long as the green new deal has the ear of politicians nuclear will be left on the back burner. The preference for wind and solar is not based on science but on how these projects can be used to promote social benefits for certain groups. Here is their plan. In 2006, a Green New Deal was created by the Green New Deal Task Force as a plan for one hundred percent clean, renewable energy by 2030 utilizing a carbon tax, a jobs guarantee, free college, single-payer healthcare, and a focus on using public programs. One way to better understand the differences between wind and solar and nuclear is to compare France with Germany. France gets 61% of its energy from nuclear and 27% from renewable s while Germany gets 12% from nuclear and 48% from renewable s. The result is that France produces 39 grams of CO2 per Kilowatt hr and Germany 318 grams or nearly ten times as much. This situation is even worse since Germany has now shut down all of its nuclear power plants. The ultimate solution to climate change is nuclear but it is on hold until the politics gets out of the way. Trump understands this and is set to end the new green deal if election. Harris is a strong supporter. As a U.S. senator, Harris was an early co-sponsor of the Green New Deal, Harris unveiled a plan to spend $10 trillion to reduce greenhouse gas emissions with a goal of getting to a zero-emissions economy by 2045. Trump says he'll end 'green new scam' in latest threat to Biden clean energy agenda

CTC

One of the big problems facing the country is the widening wealth gap and the proposed increases in the child tax credit (CTC) by both sides will help to shrink this gap. Harris wants a one time $6,000 credit along with bringing back the $3,600 credit that was instigated during the Covid. Trump is proposing a $5,000 tax credit across the board. A $5,000 credit means a family of four will pay no income tax up $140,000. This means that 90% of families with two or more children will pay no income tax. The top one percent of taxpayers pay 26% of their income in taxes and this would have to increase to 35% to cover the child tax credit. To avoid loop holes the capital gains tax would be eliminated and all income would be taxed as regular income.

Trump foreign policy

What would Trump's foreign policy look like based on what he has done in the past and what he is saying now. First to Ukraine. He will negotiate a peace agreement offering Crimea and the Donbas territories along with a promise of not allowing Ukraine to join NATO in return for Russia ending the war. This opens the door for Ukraine and Russia to both export grain which will lower world prices and keep some in Africa from starving. Russian exports of oil and gas will once again flow free along with badly needed minerals like iron and aluminum. Russia will be invited to join the west in free trade. The European Union countries will begin the process of rebuilding Ukraine. In Palestine the US will fully back Israel to defeat Hamas and then reopen the Abraham Accords to bring the Saudis into the picture. The Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia will provide the capital and Israel the construction expertise to begin the process of rebuilding Gaza. The US will agree to protect the Saudi oil fields from threats by Iran. In time the Palestinian people will choose new leadership and this will open the door to the long awaited two state solution. The US will re institute the sanctions on Iran until they end their support for Hezbollah and the Houthis The push to end globalization will continue to bring jobs home. There is no certainty in any of this but it is a realistic goal.

Sputnik

Here is a headline from Reuters on December 8, 2023. China starts up world's first fourth-generation nuclear reactor. Here is later announcement. China has announced the construction of a nuclear power plant that will be fuelled by liquid fuel based on molten thorium salt. The Shanghai Institute of Applied Physics (SINAP) has been engaged in research in this area since 2011 focusing on liquid fluoride-thorium reactors (LFTRs).Jul 31, 2024 This may be the nuclear wake up call that Sputnik was for the space race. For those too young to remember Sputnik was the name given to the first satellite launched into space in 1957 and it was the Russians that did it. This caused a near panic in the US and many were urged to study science and engineering. It led to the formation of NASA in 1958 and resulted in the US becoming the leader in space exploration. Will this get the attention of the West. China plans not only to build these reactors but to sell them on the world market.

Harris

VP Harris gave a speech at the border this week where she sounded very much like Trump. Here are some of her comments. "Those who cross our borders unlawfully will be apprehended and removed and barred from reentering for five years," "We will pursue more severe criminal charges against repeat violators and if someone does not make an asylum request at a legal point of entry and instead crosses our border unlawfully, they will be barred from receiving asylum. While we understand that many people are desperate to migrate to the United States. Our system must be orderly and secure." "I will surge support to law enforcement agencies on the front lines, more personnel, more training and more technology, including 100 new inspection systems that can detect fentanyl hidden in vehicles." "We will make sure that our ports of entry, including airports and seaports, have additional state-of-the-art technology to detect fentanyl and the chemical tools used to make it," Harris said. "I will also double the resources for the Department of Justice to extradite and prosecute transnational criminal organizations and the cartels." Harris added, "The United States is a sovereign nation, and I believe we have a duty to set rules at our border and to enforce them. And I take that responsibility very seriously.

Wealth

Normally when people reach retirement age of around 65 they convert their assets into more secure investments meaning they move from stocks to money markets or cash. This in turn removes capital for investment purposes and causes a rise in capital cost. The US is somewhat different because the top one percent own 40% of all assets so they often do not transfer all of the assets into safe places. This leaves more money for investment. This is one of the few upsides to the wealth gap.

ESG

A few years ago there was, what might be called an altruistic push within big corporations to have a social conscious, euphemistically called doing well while doing good. In retrospect it turned out to be more a public relations ploy than an actual program. This concept made a come back in the form of pressure from big stock holders, companies like BlackRock and Fidelity. They felt it was a corporate responsibility to promote diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) and environmental, social and Governance (ESG) but this was too far too fast for many people so they backed off. It is still company policy but it is on the back burner. This was all done by private business without any push from government. In April of this year Europe passed into law their version of ESG with much stronger measures. This codifies the rules and many feel this could be next in the USA. One of the big concerns of ESG was climate change but that is fast losing steam and is a sign that the whole effort is dying off.

Trump

In the news recently one commentator referred to Trump as the common sense candidate and there are good reasons for this. Trump wants to make it difficult for people to cross the border illegally. He wants to place import taxes on countries that violate the rules of fair trade. He wants sanctions on Iran as long as they sponsor terrorism. He wants to jail repeat offenders. He want legal abortions with some restrictions. He understands that wind and solar cannot replace fossil fuels. He wants the country to be energy independent. He doesn't want to cancel student debt. He doesn't want to pay reparations. He doesn't what men playing in women's sports. He doesn't want schools keeping secrets from parents. He doesn't want sex change operations on children. He doesn't want to change the names of the Washington Monument or the Jefferson Memorial. He wants to negotiate and end to the Ukraine War. He wants to back Israel to the fullest. He wants to fight misinformation with more free speech. He wants to end globalization and bring jobs back home. He wants equality of opportunity not equality of results. He wants legal merit based immigration. He is pro police and wants a strong military. These are the policies he promoted when he was president and he will promote them again if reelected.

China

VP Harris criticized Trump's import tax on China which was a 10% tariff on $300 billion of Chinese goods. When Biden took office he kept the Trump tariffs and added 100% tax on Chinese EV's, 50% tax on solar cells and 25% tax on battery parts, critical minerals, iron and steel, aluminum and shore container cranes. Biden passed the Biosecure Act which bans Chinese biotech companies from US government contracts and the Countering CCP Drones Act which prohibits any new models from being approved and operated in the US. He passed the Decoupling From Foreign Adversarial Battery Dependence Act which forbids the US from buying batteries from six Chinese companies. Trade with China should be minimized because of their unfair trade practices. It will mean higher cost for US consumers in the short run but more products will be made in the USA following Trump's make America great and Biden's policy of America First.

Thorium

Most people are unaware that the first nuclear reactors were built at the Oakridge National Lab in the1960's. The first reactor used thorium not uranium because the builder Alvin Weinberg recognized the advantages that thorium presented. His reactor ran for four years with no problems but was shut down because thorium reactors cannot produce the fuel needed for a bomb. Weinberg was fired because his main concern was safety and efficiency and not bombs. The government then ordered that all the research material be destroyed but one engineer stored it in the basement of a nearby building. Many years later a NASA engineer, Kurt Sorenson, discovered the research and opened the door to the modern day small thorium reactors that are being built by several different companies. Government scientist, upon seeing Sorenson's information, persuaded the government to open thorium small reactors to federal programs. It is not much but it is a start.

Nuclear

In 1974 the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) was founded but it was not founded to promote nuclear power but to regulate. The NRC licenses and regulates the Nation's civilian use of radioactive materials to provide reasonable assurance of adequate protection of public health and safety and to promote the common defense and security and to protect the environment. The current head of the NRC, Christopher Hanson, is representative of the mission of the commission. Hanson earned master's degrees from Yale Divinity School and Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, where he focused on ethics and natural resource economics. He earned a Bachelor of Arts degree in Religious Studies from Valparaiso University in Valparaiso, Indiana. This man is not a scientist or engineer and has very little knowledge regarding nuclear power. He is not interested in developing new nuclear technology, things like small nuclear reactors but his interests is in keeping a tight rope in existing nuclear power plants.

FBI

J Edgar Hoover headed the FBI from the time of its founding in 1924 until his death in 1972. After he died it was revealed that he kept secret records on the private lives of millions of American citizens. There were many cases where this information was used for nefarious purposes mostly to control the activities of certain individuals. Such a situation has now arisen indicating that the secret information is still be collected. NY City Mayor Adams was a popular democrat until he complained about the way the Biden administration was handling the migrant crisis it brought on in New York. It took the federal government only a short time to bring charges against the mayor leading many to believe these charges were already known by the FBI.

Migrants

Immigration Customs Enforcement (ICE) released data on illegal migrants broken down by those in detention and not in detention known as non-detained docket. This includes illegal migrants who have final orders of removal but are not detained by ICE. There are currently 7 million in that group. The data says that, among those not in detention, there are 425,431 convicted criminals and 222,141 with pending criminal charges. Those include 62,231 convicted of assault, 14,301 convicted of burglary, 56,533 with drug convictions and 13,099 convicted of homicide. These figures do not include the estimated 1.7 million got a ways and these are considered to be hiding something possibly a criminal record.

Germany

Most people think that the leaders of countries are planning ways to make their respective countries better off but that is not always the case. Take energy in Germany. Germany went big for green energy starting in 1990. They abandoned their coal and shut down their nuclear. Coal production dropped from 400 million tons in 1990 to 100 million tons in 2023. They spent $2 trillion dollars on wind and solar but someone forgot that Germany doesn't have much sun or much wind. Because of the Ukraine War Germany is building new natural gas power plants. As an example of how being in the wrong place can ruin any plan. If you wanted to run NY City on solar you would need a solar farm the size of Ohio because they don't get much sun in that area. The other alternative is to place the solar panels in the southwest over 2,000 miles away.

Haitians

Over the past 4 years about 15,000 Haitian migrants have entered Springfield, Ohio a city of 59,000 people. These migrants are here legally under the Temporary Protected Status program. There is no data available as to how many are school age but most cannot speak English. The governor is sending help. Ohio has already provided additional resources to Springfield to help with education and training for drivers, to pay for more vaccines and health screenings in schools, and to enhance translation services, explained DeWine. Many students across the country are struggling because of the shut down during Covid but minority students are hurting since test scores already showed they were behind. These are students who are proficient in English and they are having trouble keeping. The Haitian students will also make it difficult for teachers who are already pressed trying to catch up.

Ukraine

Since the start of the war the West has sent $380 billion in aid to Ukraine and more than half has come from the US. A new poll taken Sep 24, 2024 finds that 66% of Americans want a NATO-US push for a negotiated settlement in Ukraine. Here is a quote the NY Times from April of 2023. Troop Deaths and Injuries in Ukraine War Near 500,000, U.S. Officials Say In May of this year the World Bank estimated it would cost $480 billion to rebuild Ukraine. Trump has promised a negotiated end to the war and Putin will be more than happy to get out. The sad thing about it is that this same settlement could have been reached before the war started. It is three things. First Ukraine can keep Crimea, second they can keep the Donbas region and third Ukraine will not be invited to join NATO. The old reason for going to war was to prevent Putin from taking over East Europe but now that the incompetence of the Russian war machine has been exposed that threat is no longer a concern. It is long past the time to end this war. No matter how dangerous Russia may have seemed Americans were not ready to send troops to defend Ukraine.

China

China's GDP is based on 42% investment and 19% export and whereas the US economy 68% consumption and 10% export. The remaining is government spending. China has kept their country booming by investments in infrastructure for the past 50 years. The Chinese people are not pron to invest in the stock market like the US. China's market is about $10 trillion whereas the US is $55 trillion. In China one of the few areas of personal ownership is a home and that is where the people put their money. They invest in the homes mostly with cash and then with any money left over they invest in apartments. The result is an over abundance of both and this is putting it mildly. Here is a Sept 2023 report from Reuters. Even China's 1.4 billion population can't fill all its vacant homes, former official says The result of this huge over supply is a drop in housing values of 30% over the past five years and this represents the assets of most people and many of these are approaching retirement and these homes represent their pension. This is of concern to the US which is currently in the process of reshoring manufacturing. It takes time to move production from China to the US and if China declines too quickly the US may not be able to rebuild fast enough which will result in shortages which will cause inflation.

Free market

China was a poor country for thousands of years as it was a daily struggle for people to feed themselves. At the end of WW 2 China became embroiled in a civil war and in 1949 the communist government headed by Mao ruled until his death in 1976. China's GDP under Mao held steady at $50 billion and during this time about 60 million people died from starvation. In 1978 China opened up to a free market economy and the country came alive. By 2000 the GDP had increased to $1,200 billion at which time China was allowed into the World Trade Organization. After that the GDP increased rapidly to $18,000 billion today. This was the result of globalization and brought 800 million Chinese out of poverty. Once again the world witnessed the miracle of the free market as opposed to the central government planning under communism. The same thing happened in India, Vietnam, South Korea and East Germany. Meanwhile the remaining communist economic systems in North Korea and Cuba continued to struggle even to this day. In spite of this there are people who think that communism will bring equality and the latest attempt was Venezuela which is now a basket case. It is so enticing to gain power by promising to take from the rich and give to the poor.

Carbon

US CO2 emissions are now at the same level they were in 1988 in spite of the fact that the US population has increased from 244 million to 335 million during that time period. This is primarily the result of moving from coal to natural gas in power plants. Coal usage in US power plants has gone from 1000 million tons 25 years ago to 300 million tons this year. Meanwhile the world's coal usage has remained steady at 8,000 million tons. While the US has been cutting back on coal the rest of the world has been increasing the use of coal with China leading the pack using 4,000 million tons or half the world's usage. During this time the world's CO2 emissions have doubled. During this same time period the world oil production has increased from 55 million barrels per day to 100 million barrels. Since 1988 world natural gas production has increased from 2,000 billion cubic feet to 4,000 billion. What this boils down to is that in spite of the fact that wind and solar have received billions in subsidies the growth in coal has remained constant an oil and natural gas have doubled. It is time for people to understand that wind and solar cannot replace fossil fuels and that the only answer is nuclear power.

Covid

As people learn more about how the government handled Covid there is a slow burn rising from within their guts. The people in charge quickly learned that Covid was a threat to the elderly, the obese and those with pre existing conditions but they chose to lock down most everyone. Old people died alone because they were not allowed visitors. People lost their jobs and were kicked out of the military because they refused to get vaxed. Children, who were already struggling academically, fell further behind. People were fed out right lies when the president said if you get the shot you won't get Covid and if you get the shot you won't spread Covid. People, including qualified scientist, were banned from social medial for spreading misinformation which turned out to be true. This is a threat to the First Amendment over a misunderstood virus which will cause people to mistrust the government if and when the next pandemic comes along. Those who were in charge have yet to come forth and admit they were wrong on so many issues while many others continue to defend the lies. Finally they have yet to determine from where the virus originated.

Free trade

In 1962 Noble economist Milton Friedman made the case for free trade as the best and fastest path the prosperity. His arguments were sound an unassailable and stood the test of time. However certain countries began to use import taxes to protect their local industries and this opened the door for other measures to distort the market. China is the prime offender. They used currency manipulation, government subsidies and import taxes to benefit China at the expense of its trading partners. The trade deficit between China and the US started small at $6 billion in 1985 and grew to $370 billion in 2023. When China was allowed into the WTO in 2002 they agreed to follow the rules of the organization but they quickly ignored those rules. The result is they had spectacular growth for more than 40 years and became the manufacturers of the world. When Trump ran for office in 2015 he pointed out the ways in which China was breaking the rules and promised to place import taxes on China if elected. In August of 2019 Trump imposed a 10% tariff on $300 billion of Chinese imports. Biden roundly criticized Trump for these tariffs but he later kept them and added to them. This was in line with Trumps MAGA and Biden's America First plans. Trump spearheaded the reshoring of American industry which is now in full swing and getting stronger. This will result in a rapid expansion of US industrial growth bringing with it many good paying manufacturing jobs.

Election

Zelensky: Trump doesn’t know how to end war and Vance is too radical. The president of Ukraine criticizes the Republican nominees as he visits the US to share his plan for victory over Russia. Some are asking if this is foreign interference in our election. Add to that the fact that Iran is hacking the Trump campaign and sending information to the press.

Border bill

There is a controversy around the immigration bill that Trump encouraged congress to vote against. The main area of concerned is the number of migrants that would be allowed in. After negotiators conferred with the Border Patrol and officials at the Department of Homeland Security, they crafted the legislation to give DHS the authority to close the border if they reached a seven-day average of 4,000 or more border encounters. A seven-day average of 5,000 or more would mandate a border closure. If the number exceeded 8,500 in a single day, there would also be a mandatory border closure. There was one part of the bill that did not get much attention and that is a carve out for children There are exceptions, including for unaccompanied children and any unauthorized immigrant that Border Patrol agents believe should be excused for humanitarian or other reasons. This was seen by many as an open invitation to children to come across the border. There are already 325,000 children unaccounted for and this would lead to more children being put in danger. The $118 billion dollar bill contained only $20 billion for the southern border. The rest went to Ukraine and Gaza.

Healthcare

Most European countries have national healthcare meaning all citizens are covered under a government program. In the US half are covered by Medicare and Medicaid, 42% are covered by private healthcare and 8% do not have insurance. There are serious cost problems in both. Long waiting times are plaguing England. The population is aging but more so in Europe. Healthcare cost for the elderly will be increasing rapidly both in North America and Europe.

Preemies

Ethics groups suggest that preemies after 22 weeks not be given special care but allowed to die since the survival rate is only one percent. Some babies survive after a botched abortion and they also are allowed to die. The question is just how do they die. Since no direct action is taken to kill them are they just allowed to lie there until they die. Does the baby suffer during this time. We analyzed prospectively collected data on 6075 deaths among 22,248 live births, with gestational ages of 22 0/7 to 28 6/7 weeks, among infants born in study hospitals within the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Neonatal Research Network. Deaths related to pulmonary causes, immaturity, infection, and central nervous system injury decreased, while necrotizing enterocolitis–related deaths increased. In end of life cases people are allowed to die but they are kept comfortable and pain free.

Election

Voters often complain that politicians make promises but do not give details. Trump has said he will get the economy going and here is how. He will max out the US production of fossil fuels to make the country energy independent and lower the cost of energy which will lead to lower transportation cost which will lower the cost of most goods. It will lower the cost of utilities including heating and electricity. He will reduce regulations and place import taxes on Chinese goods. He will lower the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% on companies that manufacture goods in the USA. All of these things will encourage the reshoring of industry which means shorter supply lines which means lower cost. Trump has said he will secure the border and he will do that the same way he did before. He will demand that Mexico close its border with Guatemala by threatening to tax their imports. He will renew the remain in Mexico policy which means that migrants wait in Mexico while their status is confirmed. He will stop catch and release and build the wall. These are the two top issues in the election.

Inflation

As the 2020 election came on the scene both Trump and Biden promised to buy votes and that resulted in each candidate sending out a trillion dollars in fun money. Most people remember the $1,400 check they got as they wondered why they got it. This was followed up with married couples getting $2,400 plus $500 for each child. The result was inflation.

Education

As globalization comes to an end it will have profound effects on all areas of life. One area not often considered is education. The country will be doubling its industrial base over the next ten years and this means a lot of blue collar jobs. Most of the baby boomer went through the last great expansion of industrial jobs so they were mostly blue collar people but they wanted their kids to go to college so they could have white collar jobs. Thus the great push for everyone to go to college and this resulted in a glut of college graduates who could not find jobs that would pay for their student loans. The education system must now gear up for training for blue collar jobs. This new economy is already upon us as many trades people can make more money than many Liberal Arts grads without wasting four years in college. This requires a massive shift from college to tech training schools and the universities haven't yet figured this out. Not only will trades people be needed to build the new factories the need for high school grads to work in the factories will be necessary. Unless you are going to college to study STEM, business or in healthcare you should be prepared to struggle to find a job that will pay your bills. If your parents have money you can have the luxury of studying what ever you want otherwise beware.

Workers

The term working people is often used to describe an amorphous group without clearly defining that group. I suggest these are people who are paid by the hour as opposed to salaried employees. The CEO never makes $5,000 per hour but rather $1 million dollars per year. It is the working people who bore the brunt of globalization as their jobs were the ones being sent overseas while the salaried group saw their wages and net worth increase. Salaried employees are not all executive types and many have ordinary jobs. The question is who and why did people vote for Trump and the answer can be found in the working class. Here is an example. Joe has been a high school teacher for 20 years. Every day Joe goes to work in rather pleasant surroundings. It is warm in the winter and cool in the summer. Joe has a pension, health insurance, life insurance, disability insurance, vacation, holidays and personal days off. Every year Joe watches his mortgage go down and his pension going up. Joe is satisfied with the status quo and votes for Hillary. Jim worked at Bethlehem Steel for 20 years. He had all the same benefits that Joe had with a higher salary. About 40 years ago China started producing steel and by using government subsidies, flooded the market with steel at below production cost and many steel companies went out of business including Bethlehem. Jim then went to work at a job with lower pay and fewer benefits. Jim's wife went to work to make up some of the loss. Every four years some politician would come along and promise Jim he would help. After about 8 elections along came Trump and Jim said I will give him a try and low an behold Jim's real wages increased for the first time in 40 years. Jim voted again for Trump in 2020 and will do so in 2024. Jim doesn't care if Trump is not politically correct or if Trump says mean things or if Trump lies. Jim is only interested in being in a position to pay his light bill.

Taxes

In August of 2022 the Inflation Reduction Act was passed and it included $80 billion in additional funding for the IRS. Here is a statement from the government on September of 2024, two years after the passage. U.S. Department of the Treasury, IRS announce $1.3 billion recovered from high-income, high-wealth individuals under Inflation Reduction Act initiatives This is the low hanging fruit so they have a ways to go to get a decent return on their investment. Now they can go after the big money which comes from false claims of children to collect on the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) or the child tax credit which between the two amounted to $20 billion last year.

Generals

In 2014 while Syria was busy with a civil war the Islamic State (ISIS) came to power and gained global prominence in 2014, when their militants successfully captured large territories in northwestern Iraq and eastern Syria, taking advantage of the ongoing civil war in Syria. When Trump came into office in 2017 he instructed the military to do what ever was necessary to destroy ISIS. When the military is left to the generals instead of being run by Washington bureaucrats it can be very effective. The scourge of ISIS which had be growing and promoting terrorist activities for four years was completely dismantled in 6 months.

Inflation

The coming inflation battle. In the coming years the US will continue down the path of reshoring and this will lead to the doubling of the industrial base over the next ten years. This means many new high paying union jobs that will lead to wage/price inflation. On the other side and this is particularly so if Trump is elected the country will expand the fossil fuel production to the max to hold down energy prices which in turn holds down the prices of most other good. In addition as the jobs come home the supply chains are more secure and transportation costs are lower which tend so lower prices. The country will move away from the new green deal and direct its efforts toward nuclear power. This will lead to lower energy cost in the long run. As the new plants are built they will use the latest technology and thus increase efficiency which means increased productivity which offsets inflation. The first ten years will mean inflation of 5 to 10% per year but after that the productivity will begin to lower inflation. The future looks bright for young people just coming into the work market.

Business

Looking at the two candidate while removing politics from the center of the equation opens the door to new and different evaluation of the two. Trump has provided jobs to millions around the globe with his iconic towers Starting with his 12 major sky scrapers in NY City he has built towers around the world in Panama, Dubai, Mumbai, Las Vegas and Los Angeles. Add to that numerous golf courses plus the 30,000 employees who work for Trump companies. His first foray into politics landed him in the White House. Harris was a US senator for four years and a VP for four years. She was never in private business and created zero jobs. She like many politician has never had to meet a payroll. Most have little understanding of the economics of business as they are basically bureaucrats. This explains why Trump seems so out of step with politicians. He is on the outside looking in when it comes to the Washington establishment and they are concerned that he will change the status quo.

Mexico

When President Clinton negotiated NAFTA it allowed US manufacturing jobs to go to Mexico which was just a continuation of the deglobalization of US jobs going to China. It was not a good deal for American factory workers but it was a bonanza for large corporations in particular the auto industry. According to the Economic Policy Institute, these investor protections facilitated the movement of manufacturing plants to Mexico. Fifteen percent of employers in manufacturing, communication, and wholesale/distribution shut down or relocated plants due to union organizing drives since NAFTA's implementation. Recall how Ross Perot described NAFTA as a giant sucking sound referring to the manufacturing jobs going to Mexico. Trump replaced NAFTA with the United States Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA) and this brought manufacturing jobs back home. This set the stage for the reshoring of jobs to America. The US is now in a position to rebuild its industrial base while Mexico takes over the less skilled jobs to help North America to lead the world into the de globalized era. US companies will select the jobs needing the highest skills to remain in the US and then ship the lesser skilled jobs to Mexico. This is because the US would have a shortage of workers but Mexico can take up the slack. This was one more way the Trump early on recognized the problems with the global economy.

Brazil

The First Amendment right to free speech is unique to the US constitution as evidenced by the current battle between Twitter (X) and Brazil. Brazil's courts have ruled that lying is not allowed in the public media and they demanded that all social media companies cleanse their site of all lies. Everyone platform capitulated to Brazil's request but Musk and so X is banned in Brazil. There is no discussion about who decides what a lie is but many people on X were criticizing the government and that may have something to do with the action taken.

Oil

The oil business started in Mexico shortly after oil was discovered in the US during the mid 19th century. It was private companies that developed the business and like the Middle East the government nationalized the business in 1938 and all private companies left. Most of the oil was exported but in time Mexico developed an industrial economy and needed refined product like gasoline and diesel. They imported these from the US but a new president who was anti American decided to build a refinery so Mexico could make their own gasoline. Time passed and soon the oil began to run out and now the refinery had to look elsewhere for oil. The US shale oil is light sweet and could not be used by the Mexico refinery so they had to look to the Middle East for oil. In the near future their oil supply will die out and they will be importing oil to make their own gasoline. This is another example of the ineffective business practice of government. They never looked long term to recognize that their original oil source would run out. Even today they do not have the technical know how to look for new wells.

Jones Act

As the country marches on toward reshoring there are regulations and laws that could be changed to make this transition more efficient. One of the lesser known rules is what is commonly called the Jones Act. The Merchant Marine Act of 1920. This Act was designed to restrict shipping to vessels that are US built, owned, flagged and staffed. The original purpose was to maintain US ship building capacity but that is no longer needed as ship building is both a private and public business. When foreign ships arrive at US ports they must transfer cargo to US ships before it can move to other location. This is time consumer and inefficient and adds cost to shipping.

Transmission

Mark Twain said, the more I know about people, the better I like my dog. That is the way I feel about climate change. The more I know about wind and solar, the better I like my nuclear. Just take one aspect and that is getting the power from the source to the use point. The best wind is in the Midwest basically from Texas north to the Dakotas. The use point is the megacities in the northeast. This means 2,000 miles of transmission lines. The best sun is in the southwest and the use points are the west coast cities. This is 1,000 miles of transmission lines. Small nuclear reactors are placed near the use point eliminating the need for transmission lines

Abortion

The abortion issue was supposed to be at the top of the list for the upcoming election but it has not worked out that way and the problem is that Trump's stand on the issue is more acceptable that Harris. Trump says abortions should be legal up to 15 weeks with exceptions for rape, incest and life of the mother. This is position is a compromise between no abortion and abortions at any time. The Harris position allows abortion at any time which means late term and on rare occasion disposing of baby born alive after a botch abortion. What else can be done with a baby that has been mutilated in attempt to kill. Most people find late term abortions distasteful at best and disgusting to the point of getting sick over the thought. This issue will not be as important as originally thought.

China

From 1960 to 1962, just two short years, 30 million people died of starvation in Mao's China, the worst famine in recorded history. Fast forward to 1979 and China was once again facing the problem of too many people and not enough food. In the early 1970's the government could foresee this problem and started a program called Long, Last and Few which said the women should get married later and have longer times between children. It was successful as fertility rates declined from 5.7 in 1969 to 2.7 in 1978 but it was not enough. So in 1980 China started the one child policy. If you followed the policy the government would pay for your child's college and offer you interest free loans. For those who did not follow the policy the government used forced sterilization and abortion. By 2015 the fertility rate dropped to 1.6 and the plan was working. This led to two undesirable results. First there are far too few young people to support far too many old people and second there are too many men and too few women since male babies were preferred over female babies. The lesson here is that communist countries give too much power to the government and the government seems to not understand the old adage, the unintended consequences of good intentions. It is hard to understand that the government did not realize what such policies would bring. China today is in dire straights for a number of reasons, not the least of which, is demographic. This is mindful of Reagan's warning statement, “The nine most terrifying words in the English language are ‘I’m from the government and I’m here to help.’

Oil

The history of oil is primarily a history of US oil. Oil was first discovered in Pennsylvania and soon most of the oil used around the world was coming from the US. After WW 2 the demand for oil exceeded supply and the US began to look for foreign supplies. When oil was discovered in the Middle East it was American engineers that built up the oil fields. Prior to that these countries were poor tribesman wandering across vast desert areas. In 1960 five major oil producing countries banded together and formed OPEC and ten years later they nationalized most of the oil business. In 1972 these countries got together and curtailed oil exports to the US in response to the 1967 Israeli War. This was a wake up call to the West. The US began a rapid expansion of the oil industry and through the 1980's oil prices declined as production increased. Falling prices caused the Soviet Union to suffer economically to the point where it was a significant part of the collapse of the country. This was followed by the era of globalization which caused economic growth across the globe and demand for oil rose causing prices to rise from $35 per barrel to over $100. Soon US oil production was outpaced by Saudi Arabia and Russia until 2008 when shale oil came on the scene and in a few short years the US once again became the world's leading oil producer where it remains today.

Prices

Bringing down inflation does not mean prices are coming down. It means they are rising at a slower rate. The way to bring prices down is to reduce the cost of production. The prices of some products move fast while others are slow to move. In economics, price sensitivity is described in terms of elasticity of demand. The price of gasoline is inelastic because people must buy it even if the price goes up. The price of chocolate is elastic because as the price goes up people buy less of it. The rules of supply and demand apply best to elastic demand. The biggest cause of gas prices is oil prices. When the raw materials needed to produce a product become less expensive the finished price goes down in price and this includes the cost of transportation. The obvious step to lower prices is to expand fossil fuel production to the max. This means lower gasoline prices, lower home heating prices and lower electric bills. It also means lower food cost, lower travel cost and host of other areas. Governments can help by reducing spending which fights inflation and lowering interest rates. This helps people with credit card debt and with new purchases like cars and homes.

Russia

A panel discussion on world affairs came to the conclusion that the Ukraine War will end in 2032 when Russia runs out of soldiers. They left the impression that it would just fizzle out something like Afghanistan. They must have forgotten the original reason for going to war. Recall the theory was that if the West didn't stop Putin he would keep going but if Russia were to lose they would resort to nukes but this was not brought up.

Unions

A controversy has been brewing over union votes. The teamsters decided not to endorse Trump even though the rank and file prefer Trump. During a voting window from July 24-Sept. 15, rank-and-file Teamsters voted 59.6 percent for the union to endorse Trump, compared to 34 percent for Harris The reason that many union member prefer Trump is that he is opposed to the new green deal which will destroy many union jobs and Trump is for ending globalization which will create new union jobs. That is the reason Trump won in 2016 and these members are still Trumpers. He lost in 2020 because of ballot harvesting and the same thing may happen this year. The leadership did not endorse Trump because they don't want to endanger the relationship they have with the democratic party. It is much like a congressman who feels one way about an issue and his constituents feel another way.

Voting

Absentee voting begins in MN on Sept 20. You can request a ballot on line or pick one up at City Hall or the County building. You can mail the ballot or drop it off at a drop box. Early voting begins on October 18 at City hall or the County building. Some have asked what happens to my vote if the candidate dies before the election. It is difficult to research but if a candidate dies after the nominating process is complete but before the election, the party selects a new candidate in which case the voter could vote again assuming there is enough time. So if Biden dies before the election the party will select their candidate.

China

The world is watching as China comes apart at the seams. The same draw of low wages that brought in many businesses is now feeling the sting of low wages from other countries in Southeast Asia. Countries like Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia now have lower wages than China and companies are exiting China. Adding to the problem is the fact that Western countries led by the US are reshoring. Thirty trillion dollars in infrastructure financed mostly by Western countries is being abandoned as globalization comes to an end. China must import most of its food and energy and is hurt more than any country by de globalization. Adding to their woes is a shortage of working age people. This is the group that not only does the work but are the consumers. China does not have a consumer based economy like the US but they have an investment based economy. Over the past 20 years they have build many government financed projects just to be building. Many of these are wasteful. A prime example is housing where they have 75 million empty homes and apartments. The have built entire cities that stand empty and these are major cities not towns. This is all further exasperated by the loss in population that happened over the past 60 years as people moved from the country into the cities. When you do that you have fewer children and add to that the one child policy instigated in 1980 and you have a demographic catastrophe. The world is witnessing the beginning of the end as young people are taking to the streets to protest. Will there be another Tiananmen Square as happened in 1989.

Night TV

The late night shows on ABC, CBS and NBC are all losing viewers. The reason is that more people are watching pod casts but that is not quite right. Greg Gutfeld is a new comer to late night having started just nine years ago and he now has the largest late night audience. He lambastes everyone and every group and is totally politically incorrect. The other net works spent years leaning to the left and going after Trump not considering the fact that half the people voted for Trump. Good business tells you that you cannot insult your customers and not expect to lose some. The networks have yet to understand what is happening. Here is a news item. The networks have finally begun admitting that it is no longer what it used to be. The question is: What can it evolve into that takes into account both economic realities and the cold hard fact that viewers are no longer as engaged by broadcast TV as they used to be?

Trump

The top reasons to vote for Trump. He will secure the border He will reach a peace agreement to end the Ukraine War He will end the new green deal and open the way for nuclear power He will restart the Abraham Accords He will reinstate the sanctions on Iran He will continue the reshoring of US businesses to American shores He will renew the Trump tax cuts He will end taxing social security and TIPS He will max out fossil fuel production He will not cancel student debt

Saudi oil

Why the Abraham Accords were so valuable. Back in the 1970's the US developed the oil fields in Saudi Arabia. At that time the US agreed to offer military protection to the Saudis in return for a promise that they would only sell oil in dollars and that beget the petrodollar. This in effect made the US dollar the world currency which it still is today. The Abraham Accords set up during the Trump administration promise a renewal of this agreement even though the US was no longer dependent on Saudi oil. Part of maintaining US protection was a reconciliation between the Saudis and Israel and as this came close to happening, Iran a country with designs on Saudi oil panicked, and instigated the Hamas attack on Israel. Now Saudi is left vulnerable to attack by Iran. The US needs to quickly restart the Abraham Accords and once again off Saudi protection in return for a peace agreement with Israel. This would add Saudi Arabia to Egypt, Jordan along with UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan as a partnership opposing Iran. Then the US could reinstate the sanctions that Trump placed on Iran and that would be a major step toward getting rid of Hamas which could then lead to a two state agreement in the Middle East ending a dispute that started in 1948.

Home cost

VP Harris has proposed giving $25,000 toward the down payment on a house for first time home buyers. While this can help middle income people, the low income group will not benefit because they cannot qualify for a mortgage. Even a starter home costs more than $200,000 and the down payment required for a FHA loan is 3.5%, assuming a good credit score, and most low income people do not have $7,000 to put down. In the long run this will hurt all low income people because it will just drive up the cost of homes like most government give away programs. Mortgage loan rates have increased from 2% to 7% in the past four years and that has kept middle income groups from buying a home while the increase in home cost have kept low income groups out of the market.

Tax credits

There is a difference between a tax deduction and a refundable tax credit. In order to take advantage of a tax deduction you must owe taxes and this eliminate the lowest one half of wage earners because they pay no income tax. If you want to help the low income group the child tax credit it the way to go. If the credit is $2,000 per child and this low income family has two children the government sends them a check for $4,000. This credit is not only available to low income families but to families earning up to $400,000 per year. The key word is refundable as some tax credits are not refundable and the recipients must owe tax before they are eligible for the credit. This is a good way to narrow the wealth gap.