Sunday, December 15, 2024
Electric power
For the past 30 years the production of electricity in the US has remained relatively steady. This is the result of two main factors. First is the transfer of industrial facilities overseas and second the increased efficiency of heating and cooling technology but all of that is coming an end. First the improved quality in things like AC units and light bulbs has reached the limit. Second industry is coming back home. These two things are happening when new computer technology, things like AI, are just beginning. The result will be a shortage of electric power and since politicians will not allow voters to experience blackouts, industry will be shorted. In anticipation of that many industries are trying to develop their own private supply of electric power but there will not be enough to go around. It will be necessary to restart many coal plants that have been closed by using natural gas. This must be combined with not shutting down any more nuclear plants and getting started on building new nuke plants. It will have to start with the typical large, one gig, plants that everyone is familiar with and then follow up with small reactors. The change of coal to gas can be completed within a few years while building new nuke plants will take five to seven years and small nuke reactors will come in ten years. While this is going on the expansion of wind and solar will continue. This assumes that the sale of EV's will be far less than currently predicted because people will discover they cannot charge the cars. It would also help if reshoring happens more slowly than expected.
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