AI jobs

The last big change in manufacturing happened when automation came in. Factory workers who were making a good wage, say in the auto plants, lost their jobs and had to go to work for less pay. When the new manufacturing plants are built in the coming years new jobs will be created and since automation in the form of AI will increase productivity these jobs will pay more and people will be leaving low paid jobs for higher pay which is the opposite of what happened last time.

Musk

Musk announces on June 5, 2024 the building of a super computer, the largest in the world, in an abandoned vaccum cleaner factory in Memphis. Renovation of the building begins in August and the project is completed in 121 days. The last stage was building the computer and Musk finished that in 19 days. Oct 14, 2024 — Nvidia chief Jensn Huagn praise Elon Musk after his startup xAI built a supercomputer in 19 days an effort that he said would take others years. This computer uses 100,000 GPU's and Musk is now looking to expand to one million GPU's Nov 13, 2024—Elon Musk has stunned rivals by building a supercomputer for xAI bigger and faster than ever before, fueling a race to supersize data centers Dec 5, 2024 Elon Musk xAI super computer Colossus is set to expand to one million GPU's.

Min wage

It has been suggested that there be a guaranteed income of $1,000 per month. If checks are sent out then people who are not working would get a check and some who are working will stop. The $1,000 in the equivalent of $6 per hour. A better way would be to raise the minimum wage from the current $7.24 to $13 then only those working would get the benefit of the guaranteed income. This would encourage people to go to work. It is not a handout but something that is earned.

Wages

Over the past 40 years wages have not kept up with inflation eventhough inflation has been at record low levels averaging 3%. An example is a fast food place. Companies can pay more and just raise prices. In 1986 a Big Mac cost $1.60 and today the cost is $5.69. That is annual increase of 8%. In 1986 the average wage at McDonald's was $3.35 and today it is $13.85 which is an annual increase of 7.1%. During this period inflation was 2.5%. In 1986 the employee had to work 126 minutes to buy a Big Mac and today the employee has to work 147 minutes.

Greenland

Recently Trump said something kind of off the cuff about buying Greenland but often times there is a reason behind what he says. In this case it should be noted that Greenland has one of the largest deposits of rare earth metals in the world. The country is gifted with large amounts of inexpensive hydropower along with the infrastructure for mining and processing the ore and year around shipping facilities. Denmark, the present owner of Greenland, is a small country with a population of 6 million and a GDP of $400 billion and they do not have the capital needed to develop the rare earth mines. These mines could supply the needs of the West and thus eliminate dependence on China. The US could enter an agreement with Denmark to mine the materials and give them a percentage or just buy the country up front. If the US bought Denmark for $600 billion that would give every citizen of Denmark $100,000 dollars. Perhaps the citizens of Denmark would prefer money up front instead of a payoff over the next 50 years. The US bought Alaska which is about the same size as Greenland for $700 million in today's dollar so $600 billion would be almost ten times as much. The US bought the Louiseanna territory, about the same size as Greenland, from France in 1803 for $15 million and in todays dollars that would be $400 billion.

MN energy

On Feb 2023 MN governor signed a bill stating that the state will be producing 100% carbon free electricity by 2024. The key word is electricity. MN gets 73% of its energy from fossil fuel but only 29% is for electricity. The rest is for heating and transportation so even if this goal is achieved there will still be 44% generated from fossil fuel. Most people who read the law believe that the state will be carbon free. This law was important because in 2024 the EPA set up a $200 million dollar grant for MN to produce carbon free electric power. The no nuke people still control the state and there are no plans to increase nuclear power. The majority are still convinced that wind and solar can replace fossil fuels.

Climate

The 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) was held in Baku, Azerbaijan from November 11–22, 2024. The conference was held at the Baku Olympic Stadium The major push was for expanding nuclear power but over the objections of many protestors who came from poor countries mostly in Asia and Africa. The climate people in these countries are much like the wind and solar people in the US. They see climate change as social change where the redistribution of money is the main point. They see large sums of cash coming from the West to build windmills and solar panels that can easily be used for other purposes but cash for a nuclear power plant is not so easily moved around.

Kahoot

There is a video game often played in schools called Kahoot. Students put their ID numbers into the game which is played on the electronic black board. Then questions about the subject matter are presented and the students get points for the fastest correct answer. I witnessed on several occasions tenth grade students exitingly competing in geometry. With the onset of AI will there be new ways to get students involved in school using games and other tech innovations.

2022

It is fun to play the what if game especially if it involves something important. The expected Red Wave of the 2022 midterm elections never materialized and this led to Biden deciding to drop his promise to be a one term president and run for a second term. Some say it was the abortion issue but regardless if the Wave had come to pass Biden would have concided to keep his promise and retire. This would have oppened the door to a primary which Harris would have won unless they found another Black female but she would have been ligitimized and had two years to campaign and many say she would have won.

Duke

We often here of scenarios where the news is presented from an agenda point of view rather than a fact based story. One of the best examples of that has been brought back into the news with the recent confession of Crystal Mangum. She was the Black girl who accused three White Lacrosse players of rape. The story became national at a time when social media was not dominant like it is today.  It has all of the necessary ingredients. The was race, sex and class all rolled into one story. The girl was a poorly educated Black and the boys were privileged Whites.   They were deemed guilty from the start. University professors from around the country joined in with the Duke where 88 professors signed a letter condemning the actions of the players.   All the major networks reported the guilt and watched their ratings rise.  This added impetus to the Metoo movement that had just started  In this day and age fast moving stories can get out of hand in a hurry.

Recession

Jimmy Carter's passing is in the news and it reminds people of the economy at the time he was president. In the 2008 recession caused by the mortgage crisis the news often reported this as the greatest recession since the great depression. Not even close. The recession of 1980 caused interest rates to rise to 21.5% and inflation was 13% will unemployment rose to 10%. In 2008 unemployment rose to 10% but inflation was less than 3% and interest rates peaked at 5%. Most people do not remember much about the stagflation, as it was called, of the late 1970's and early 80's. On an interesting side note, I lived in the south and there you can be called Jimmy or James but never Jim unless accompanied with another name such as Jim Bob

Deportations

A recent CBS poll of registered voters showed 56% favor deportation of all illegal migrants. There was no polling on how many would favor deporting convicted criminals but most feel it would be higher. The sad thing is that the question, as all to often is the case, has become political with 88% of republicans in favor and only 30% of democrats. This brings up the question of where these people were convicted. If it were in the United States then it is probably ligit but if convicted in their home countries the conviction could be political. President Obama deported illegals without concern to criminality here or at home. This would be faster and easier than trying to determine where and what kind of crimes were alleged. This will be looked at in a different way since it is Trump.  

Flynn

The sad case of Micheal Flynn and how it illustrates an example of why the Justice Department has lost credibility. Flynn was appointed National Security Advisor for Trump in 2016. As a part of the Trump/Russia collusion he plead guilty to one count of making false statements to the FBI Then in 2019 Flynn hired a new attorney and she uncovered new materials that were withheld by the prosecution which could have helped Flynn. In May 2020, the Justice Department dismissed the charge against Flynn. This is one of many cases where the Justice Department has been found to cover up information deemed detrimental to their case. He plead guilty to a crime that would not have been a crime if all the information had been submitted to the court.

GPU

Elon Musk has purchased the former Electrolux 750,000 sq ft plant in Memphis to build a new data center which will contain the worlds fastest computer. The top speeds had reached a wall when Musk came up with a new way to combine GPU's. Prior to Musk innovation the largest was about 33,000 units but the new discovery will allow 100,000 in the first stage and going to one million. One of the more interesting parts of this new endevor is that the facility will contain one area where high school students will be trained on how to apply AI in the work force. Once these young people have these skills they can demand and get high paying jobs with good benefits. This will be the trend across the country.

Nuclear

Biden was the most pro nuclear democrat ever and Trump will follow in his steps. The problems with nuclear power are being resolved. Safety is controlled with automatic shut down. Long term storage of waste products is reduced and many can be reused. The financing is being handled by the social media companies and Trump has promised to speed up the permitting. Japan can build a reactor in one third the time mostly because of reduced regulations. With government support and private financing the road blocking by the fossil fuel industry and the green new deal will no longer stand in the way.

Power

The major social media companies are expanding rapidly as AI comes on stream and the one thing they all have in common is a need for vast amounts of electric power. In order to operate, they need a continous supply of power and since wind and solar are intermittent they are turning to nuclear. MicroSoft is reopening the close plant at Three Mile Island agrees to use all of the power over the next 20 years. This is 837 MW which is enough to power a city of one million. Google has signed a world's first deal to buy energy from a fleet of mini nuclear reactorsto generate the power needed for the rist in use of arificial intelligence. Oct 15, 2024 Billionaires likeGates, Bezos and Altman are backing nuclear energy. Hers's why they're are all in, and you should be too. Nov18,2024 These people cannot rely on normal power companies because they will be competing with private homes and politics will favor the voters so they must have their own private supply of power. The same situation will happen when charging EV's competes for power.

Jobs

Some months ago a young relative of mine asked me why I majored in chemistry. I told him that I liked the subject but another reason was Sputnik. For those who don't remermber in 1957 the Soviets put up the first satillite in orbite and named it Sputnik. The whole country was in a minor panic fearing that the communist were getting ahead and young people were encouraged to study science. It turned out to be a good decision because over the years it has been helpful in understanding much of the new developments in our lives. Today it is once again at the forefront as AI comes on the scene.The country is once again in need of scientist and bringing in qualified people by way of immigration can help solve the shortage. Over the past few years a lot of emphasis has been directed toward what is called STEM, science, technology, engineering and math. This has opened the door to a whole new group of people, the ladies. As the new manufacturing facilities are springing up across the country there will be a need for people who have a basic understanding of technology to operate these plants. The young people have grown up using various forms of technology and are capable of working in these new plants with some on the job training. These will be jobs for high school grads and combined with AI will be highly productive meaning good wages and benefits. As these young people learned to move around on the Internet they were proparing for the jobs of the future.

Russia

When people today talk about the evils of cancel culture they are referring to liberals who have gone astray but for those of us who have been adults since the cold war started we have a more broad view. We remember the red scare of the 1950's when anyone accused of being communist was riducled and shamed and many lost their jobs. I was mesmerized watching the McCarthy hearings and how small incidences were twisted into treasonous acts. It was a bipolar world where you were either for capitalism or communism. These feelings were so strong, that when the opportunity for a peaceful world presented itself in 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed, instead of setting up economies that joined forces the only thought was to punish the new Russia. Clinton got on well with the new leader of Russia Boris Yeltsin and wanted to set up working agreements but he was shunted side by the military industrial complex and the old us vs them cold war policy prevailed. When Putin took power in 2000 he also wanted to have a business relationship with the West but he was a former KGB man and could not be trusted. This was a missed opportunity and other opportunities came later but each time the old cold war policies prevailed and it all culminated in the Ukraine War. Even today both Putin and Zelensky are sending out signals that they would like a peaceful settlement but the hawks are still running the show. Send Ukraine more weapons to keep this thing going even with understanding that the US doesn't want Putin to lose and doesn't want Ukraine to win for fear that either would end up with WW 3

GPU

There is a old adage in business that says if you want to get something done give it to a busy person. This has never been more obvious than in the case of Elon Musk. Back 6 years ago super computers were primarily used for medical research and predicting weather. Musk realized that super computers would lead the way for AI and began plans in 2019 to build one. He was buying GPU (graphics processing unit) equipment from Nvidia and knew that the demand would exceed the supply so he decided to build his own GPU. He often said that the best supplier is no supplier but had to use products from Nvidia. He understood that the demand is exceeding supply and the price would rise. He built a large units in Texas and Tennesee that purchased most of the GPU that Nvidia produced causing that company to increase in value by 2,000 percent in just the last five years. His next move was to start a company called Cortex which was partly owned by Tesla to produce his own GPU. This will cost more than buying from Nvidia short term but long term it is a good investment. Years ago company CEO's had long term plans but that disappeared in the 70's but Musk still thinks that way. Just like the major social media companies are starting to produce their owe electric power they must now look for ways to make their own GPU's and Musk is ahead in this game.

Podcast

Over the past few years the media has come under scrutiny because of a series of misleading reports including Covid and Preident Bidens condition. The result is that people are turning away from the regular media to places like Pod Cast and certain social media like TicTok and X. The result is that advertizers are looking for new ways to promote their products. One big difference will be the way business is able to influence the news. With a relatively small number of outlets money could be a powerful force but with many thousands of independent news people it will be more difficult. There are 3 million podcast in the US with a 130 million listeners. Independent media is growing rapidly while the old style media is in decline. This will also make it more difficult for the government to put out false information. There will be millions of fact checkers.

Crime

Ten years ago California passed Prop 46 which allowed theft up to $950 to be down graded to a misdemeanor and crime shoplifting increased dramatically. This past year the past Prop 36 which made shoplifting a felony and crime decreased. The conclusion is that crime will decrease if punished. In the 1970's and 80's crime in NY City was out of control. In the 90's the city got tough on crime and things changed quickly. Crime in New York City decreased dramatically in the 1990s, with violent crime falling by more than 56% and property crime dropping by about 65%. The decline was more significant than the national average, where violent crime dropped by about 28% and property crime by 26%

Haitians

An estimated 15,000 to 20,000 Haitian migrants have settled in Springfield, Ohio in recent years. With a population of approximately 60,000 people, the influx of Haitian nationals migrating to Springfield has put a significant strain on the city's resources, including housing, law enforcement, hospitals, and schools.Sep 25, 2024 There are many articles written about this situation and there are just a many saying it is working as there are those who say it is causing problems. The state sent an extra $1.3 million dollars to help schools. The number of students needed help with English increased from 200 to 2,000. There are not enough English second language teachers to deal with this influx. These people do not have health insurance so they will use the emergency room for treatment. The governor is sending $2.5 million dollars to help defray the cost. They do not have the employees to handle this increase. This would be like 40,000 moving into Fargo Moorehead population 130,000. These Haitians would be better served if they were dispersed to several cities.

FBI

The nomination of Kash Patel to head the FBI has reopened the Trump/Russia collusion case because he promises to expose the inner operations of the FBI. During the 48 years that J Edgar Hoover headed the FBI the agency concentrated on gathering information on citizens that Hoover could use. The Church committee investigations (1975) slowed this down but it picked up again after 9/11. When Trump came on the scene he was seen as a threat to the way the intelligence agenies operated so the FBI presented false infomation to the FISA court which allowed them to spy on Trump foreign policy adviser Carter Page. Using what is called the two hop system this allowed the FBI to spy on all of Trump's people including Trump. In December 2019, Rosemary Collyer , a senior U.S. district judge and one of four FISA Court judges who approved a warrant authorizing the wiretapping of Page, issued an order saying the FBI "provided false information to the National Security Division (NSD) of the Department of Justice, and withheld material information from NSD which was detrimental to the FBI's case, in connection with four applications to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court for authority to conduct electronic surveillance of a U.S. citizen named Carter W. Page". This led to the appointment of Robert Mueller as special prosecutor in investigate the charge of Trump/Russia collision which became the catalyst of the impeachment. After a two-year probe, Mueller finds insufficient evidence of a criminal conspiracy involving Trump and draws no conclusions on whether Trump obstructed justice. The NY Times and the Washington Post both receieve Pulizer Prizes for their reporting and later they admitted they had been wrong. Jul 22, 2022 A New York Times columnist has published an article detailing his “wrong” and regretful reporting of Donald Trump voters before the 2016 election – admitting the Russia collusion story was “bogus” and a “hoax”.

Starbucks

Starbucks workers are on strike and one of the things they want is a 60% wage increase. They currently earn $18 per hour and this would mean a $10 per hour raise. Since wages represent 35% of the cost of the finished product, the average coffee is $4.50 so the new price would be 35% of 60% times $4.50 or $1 per coffee. Would most customers be willing to pay and extra dollar for a cup if they knew the money was going to the employees in the form of wages. The new wage of $28 per hour equates to $56,000 per year which is $9,000 below the average wage. They are asking for 60% with the hope of getting 30% which would mean 50 cents per cup. When you start negotiating you ask for the moon.

Medicaid

The original Medicaid started in 1965 was to provide healthcare for low income adults with children, elderly, blind and people with disabilities. Obamacare added low income adults without children. Since Medicaid is both a federal and state program there are some differences between states but most set up income guides for participation. For some Medicaid is free and for others a scaled cost based on income. For example, in Minnesota, adults with household incomes up to 138% of poverty are eligible for Medicaid. Children 0-2 in households with income up to 288% of poverty are also eligible.  For an individual this means free insurance with income of less than $20,700. Most of these people do not sign up until they need care since there is no preexisting clause. There are currently 29 million eligible who did not sign up. For a family of four the income limit for free insurance is $62,000. Higher incomes qualify for insurance but that requires a monthly premium and annual deductible and these plans are partially subsidized. The average Obamacare plan (silver) cost $500 per month with a $4,000 annual deductible. A person without subsidize would pay $6,000 out of pocket for the plan plus another $4,000 before they received any benefit. Enhanced Obamacare which is set to expire at the end of 2025 limits the out of pocket cost to 8.5% of income which means the family making $62,000 would have an out of pocket total of $5,270. Only about 5 million are eligable for free coverage.

War

As the settlement of the war in Ukraine becomes a possibility it is time to look ahead to the potential war in Iran. A brief look back in time is warranted. Recall the lies that Johnson told about Vietnam especially as were revealed in the Pentagon Papers. Follow this up with the WMD reason for going to war in Iraq. Next is why did the war in Ukraine start. Understand that Russia wanted a peaceful existence with the West after the fall of the Soviet Union but the US refused. When you see another $10 billion released to support Ukraine understand that means a $10 billion dollar purchase of military equipment from US defense contractors. Be mindful of the Act passed in 1998. The Act declared that it was the Policy of the United States to support "regime change." The Act was passed 360–38 in the U.S. House of Representatives and by unanimous consent in the Senate. US President Bill Clinton signed the bill into law on October 31, 1998. The law's stated purpose was: "to establish a program to support a transition to democracy in Iraq." Just change the name Iraq to Iran and the government has permission to go.

Iran

There are those who believe that the power behind the throne thrives on continuous war or preparation for war and they are concerned about Trump's promise to bring a negotiated peace to Ukraine. What would be their response. The in crowd predicts war against Iran. They will use the threat of nuclear weapons as a pretense for action. They will point out that sanctions alone are not enough but they fail to realize that there is another step before war. The US could selectively blockade oil shipments from the Middle East. They could allow ships from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE and Iraq to continue to send oil to places like China but turn back all Iranian ships. This would blow up the economy in Iran rather than blowing up the country. Look for the generals to be coming on TV explaining the necessity of stopping Iran much like they do with stopping Russia. The military industrial complex will rise up and expose the Iranian threat. The press will be their partner in this endeavor.

Water

For people who believe that wind and solar cannot replace fossil fuels arguments are sometimes distractions. When those who oppose off shore wind talk about killing birds and whales they are avoiding the real problem which is the extraction of rare earth metals like neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium. Mining these elements poisons the ground water but since it is in China it is not considered a problem. The Yellow River in China is the main water source for 420 million people. It has been under stress from mining coal for many years and now must face the added stress of mining rare earths. The Yellow River's basin presently has a population of 120 million people, while over 420 million people live in the immediate provinces which rely on it as a water source.

Nuclear power

There are new uranium reactors that have the same safety features that thorium reactors provide. They require uranium 235 to be enriched to 5 to 20 percent as opposed to 4% used in conventional reactors. The higher enriched particles are very small, the size of caraway seed. They are encased in small ceramic spheres the size of a billiard ball. The case captures the unwanted radioactive elements while releasing the heat needed to run the reactor. This removes the long term storage problems associated with regular reactors. The reaction takes place at high temperature (1,500) F the same as thorium which means efficient transfer of heat from the reactor to the helium gas that surrounds the reactor vessel. This heated helium is then used to boil water to create the steam needed to run the turbines to create electric power. The fuel supply comes from two sources. First is to continue the enrichment process currently used from 4% to some higher level up to 20%. The second is to take nuclear bomb fuel which is 90% and blend it down to less than 20%. Much like thorium reactors these new units can be manufactured on an assembly line and shipped by truck to the use point. They can also use fuel created from the waste product currently stored at regular nuclear power plants. In essence these are small nuclear reactors using uranium that have all the advantages of small thorium reactors.

Change

From 1930 and continuing in the post war years the democratic party controlled the congress. It began with FDR's New Deal and continued under LBJ's Great Society until the Reagan Revolution turned the congress over in Clinton's term. During these years many injustices were set on the road to correcting. People achieved equal rights although there is still work to be done the progress was notable. Clinton, as part of his policy of triangulation said the era of big government is over and thus set the stage for Trump. The democrats made serious inroads toward equality for all but then they continued a little to far when they got side tracked by bathrooms and statues and equity. When they said democracy was threatened they were implying that Trump was the threat but many working people believed that democracy had already been taken from them and that Trump would renew democracy. These were the people who watched their good jobs go overseas while the elites both businesses and better educated people were winners. These workers blamed the government and to them the government was not only the elected officials but the whole bureaucracy. They see the big corporations using lobbyist to maintain the status quo and they want a change and Trump is the person they believe can bring about this change. The bureaucrats will fight this and with their companions in the press they may well curtail any significant change. In the past it was always a change back and forth between democrats and republicans but this time is different because Trump is both, depending on the issue.

War

The European economy is struggling and the main engine Germany is suffering from a series of unforced errors. The Green Party in Germany came into power 20 years ago and convinced the people that wind and solar could replace fossil fuels. This was an emotional response to the threat of climate change. It happened quickly and the fact that the geography was not suited to the change didn't matter. They have limited wind and sun throughout the country. Next they decided to close down their 17 nuclear power plants and the last one closed in 2023. Next the war came and Germany decided to stop buying cheap natural gas from Russia and the price rose rapidly and this caused hardship for both homes and businesses. The price of natural gas in Germany is $12.78 per MMBtu and $2.87 in the USA. This has caused a recession over the past two years and now the biggest industries, the auto and chemical, are laying off employees. Meanwhile over in Ukraine an estimated 80,000 killed and 400,000 wounded and the country is in shambles. Polls show that a small majority(52%) of Ukrainians would be willing to trade land for peace. The support for the war in the US has been declining and is now at 52%. Reaching a peaceful settlement to the war would stop the carnage in Ukraine and save Europe from collapse. Here is the latest poll taken Feb 2024 Roughly 70% of Americans want the Biden administration to push Ukraine toward a negotiated peace with Russia as soon as possible, according to a new survey from the Harris Poll and the Quincy Institute, which publishes Responsible Statecraft.

Negotiator

It is interesting to watch the Trump negotiating style. Take the case of the Ukraine War. Trump starts by saying that the US is not wedded to NATO and this gets everyone's attention. Then he says he will get a peaceful settlement to the war. This is quickly noticed by Putin and Zelensky. Then when everyone is convinced he wants to end the war he says that NATO countries must contribute 5% of their GDP to the war effort if they want the US to continue to help, leaving everyone to think he is reconsidering his plan to end the war. Some guess he is just getting ready to end the war and have the West rebuild Ukraine but they are all guessing. He does the same thing with tariffs. He does it with mass deportations. All this because his is not a politician. He is a businessman and at heart a salesman. The typical professional negotiators are at a loss.

Votes

President Biden just announced that he is forgiving the student loans on 50,000 public employees and he is being criticized for buying votes. This is true but....the mortgage interest deduction is buying votes from home owners. The capital gains tax is buying votes from investors. The oil depletion allowance is buying votes from the big oil companies. Grants of 50% of the cost of solar panel companies is buying votes. Child tax credits is buying votes. $7,500 tax credit on EV's is buying votes. Removing tax on TIPS is buying votes. Not taxing social security is buying votes. Free healthcare under Obamacare is buying votes. This is the way things work. Lobbyist exist to get hand outs. Congressmen are the lobbyist for the poor. The main purpose of government is to provide safety but a second purpose is to take money from one group and give it to another group in order to curry votes.

Budget

Surprise. Polls show that the majority of Americans want to cut waste, fraud and abuse from the spending. The budget is $6,700 billion but if someone proposed to cut one million the news would be filled with anyone who would have to get by with less because of the cut. If the proposal is to cut discretionary spending by one billion that is OK but if it means cutting some specific benefit then the press would have that all over the news. The budget is so large that it is almost impossible to keep track of what is going on. Broward County, Fl spent $140 million in Covid relief funds to construct a luxury hotel. This is not allowed so the money was transferred to the county's general fund to cover lost tax revenue. The money was then moved from the general fund to finance the hotel. If this kind of stuff is going on around the country it becomes very difficult to police.

Straight talk

As the democrat party looks to the future and tries to figure out who they are and what they stand for they will be missing the point because that it the way parties that lost always recovered. In the past democrats felt that the central government could best serve the people but technology has changed that. The norm has been that experts in Washington decided how the country should run and most people could not see behind the curtain what was happening. In today's world ordinary citizens can now access the inner workings of government on their phones. They don't like the idea of someone at the top telling them how to live their lives. Elected officials will have daily contact with their constituents and must answer directly to them. Voters will now be more knowledgeable and not so easily misled by some far off expert. The mumbo jumbo of the typical politician will be replaced with straight talk. The successful politician will be the one who answers yes and no questions with yes or no instead of some lengthy diatribe.

Border

As the campaign progressed and immigration loomed as a problem many democrats expressed surprise at the scope of the migrant situation. This happens when group think prevails and people only watch news that fits their group. Beginning in September 2021 Fox News had a reporter with drones showing the migrants crossing the border on foot at the rate of 7,000 per day. His reports were daily from that time to the present but no other reporters from other networks were present. Sometimes it pays to watch a variety of news sources.

Amazon

Amazon stock has increased 135% over the past five years going from $85 to $225. That is 27% per year while the profits increased 33% per year. The average wage at Amazon is $36 per hour but the 175,000 warehouse workers earn only $18. Amazon has 200 million Prime members that pay $139 per year. To double the salary of the warehouse workers would cost $6.3 billion dollars and could be paid for by raising the cost of Prime by $31 per year. The company could use a combination of raising the price of Prime along with some of its profits to pay the warehouse workers. Jeff Bezos owns 912 million shares with a current value of $205 billion dollars. He could pay the wage increase for the whse workers out of his own pocket and if the stock increased by $7 that would cover his cost. Amazon has 1.6 million employees but only 10,000 are represented by the Teamsters Union and they are currently on strike. These are whse workers from ten different locations. One of the best ways to narrow the income gap is for companies to unionize. If employee feel they are not being treated fairly they want a union and if they are treated fairly they don't want a union.

Change

As people anticipate the upcoming changes in the way the government operates the question arises as to what group should be doing the investigating. When the 2008 mortgage crisis hit the experts all gathered together with the experts who created the problem to design a plan that would solve the problem. Many on the outside looking in asked the obvious question of why not bail out the home owners instead of the banks. It was not a matter of money because the cost was pretty much the same. That approach was not even considered because it would have been such a foreign concept. Bankers are not going to look at the problem from the perspective of the home owner but only how the bankers see the problem. Looking at today's situation the experts say you should go to the defense department executives and defense contractors to look for ways to make things more efficient because they understand the system. This is why every attempt over the years by things like the Grace Commission under Reagan and the Campaign To Cut Waste under Obama failed. Even while setting up department heads people demand that someone with vast experience be put in charge. Where will you find such a person. Within the department you are trying to change. And thus nothing gets done. A case in point is Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense. He looks at the department from the viewpoint of the soldier much like the homeowner in the previous example. Politics aside most of the experts cannot understand such thinking. They would like to make improvements but they are so much a part of the system that they cannot separate themselves from the system.

Regs are not laws

As Doge begins its seemingly impossible task of trimming the fat from government it has the constitution on its side. The constitution clearly states that the legislative branch creates the laws and the executive branch enforces the laws. Over the past 80 years the executive branch has exceeded its authority and created regulations which have acted as laws. This has resulted in the expansion of the bureaucracy which expanded the government which expanded the cost. The Doge team can look at any regulation and declare it unconstitutional and this has recently been confirmed by the court. Yes, the Supreme Court recently ruled in the case "Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo" that federal agencies do not have broad authority to interpret ambiguous laws and essentially confirmed that bureaucrats cannot make regulations without clear congressional authorization, effectively overturning the long-standing precedent of "Chevron deference" which allowed courts to defer to agency interpretations of statutes; this significantly limits the power of bureaucrats to create regulations In essence if the congress has not approved a regulation it can be challenged. In recent years presidents have ended up spending money not approved by congress but congress did nothing about it. A recent case where congress stepped in was when Trump wanted to spend money on the wall and he had to get money from defense where is was approved.

Terrorist

The recent murder of the insurance CEO brings back memories of the domestic terrorism of the 1970's where thousands of attacks happened. In 1970 there were 460 and the number increased each year through 1981. Groups like the Weather Underground, the New World Liberation Front and the Symbionese Liberation Army carried out bombings in several cities including New York, Chicago and San Francisco resulting in many deaths. These were mostly radical marxist students from the 60's who pushed for revolution. One group the Students for a Democratic Society collapsed in 1969 and the Weather Underground took over and by the next year claimed credit for 25 bombings including the US Capitol, the Pentagon, the California AG's office and a NY City police station. These people were not young kids with guns shooting up schools they were older professional people. Bill Ayers was a professor and Benardine Dohrn was a lawyer and they ended up teaching at the University of Chicago and working for a big Chicago law firm. They showed up again in the 2012 Occupy Wall Street protest. None of these activities were considered a plot to take over the government.

Wars

The number of similarities between Trump and Netanyahu are growing. Their friendship, which developed in Trumps first term, was well known. Recall that Trump moved the US embassy to Jerusalem. Then in 2019 Netanyahu was indicted it was mindful of the Trump/Russia collusion charge. Israel was under attack from two sides while the PM was being attacked from within. The situation was bleak. Netanyahu went against his own experts and decided to take action against Hezbollah and exploded the pagers which the leaders of Hezbollah held and followed up with an attack in Lebanon. Then Trump was elected and Russia deserted Assad in Syria and Israel has come out on top. All the while the other Arab countries have been silent as they await for Trump to restart the Abraham Accords and bring Saudi Arabia into the fold. These countries will then join forces with Israel to defang Iran and open the door to the long desired two state settlement. Trump is disliked by many Americans and Netanyahu is disliked by many Israelis but both are on the path to end the wars, Trump in Ukraine and Netanyahu in Gaza.

Debt

The US debt as a percent of GDP is now at 120 which is the highest since WW 2. During the cold war years the debt stayed under 70% of GDP but starting in 2008 there was rapid rise going from 70% to 120% today. One of the big concerns is the interest on the debt which was $400 billion per year until the mortgage crisis in 2008 and it has rise to $900 billion last year. We now spend more money on interest than on defense. In 2000 the debt was $5.6 trillion and today it s $36 trillion. How long can this continue. Japan has a debt to GDP ratio of 260% so there appears to be room for increasing the debt. The way out of this mess is to limit future government spending to one percent less than the inflation rate. For example. If inflation over the next 75 years is three percent the $27 trillion dollar GDP will rise to $247 trillion. If government spending is held to two percent the debt will increase to $158 trillion which will be 63% of GDP which is where it was during the post war years. It doesn't matter what numbers are used as long as the increase in spending is less than the inflation rate the debt will slowly come down. Since 1950 the government has increased spending faster than the inflation rate. The average inflation rate since 1950 has been 3.5% while the increase in government spending has averaged 6.8% and thus the increasing debt. The least painful way to reduce the debt is long term. You don't have to cut anything you just have to increase at a slower rate.

unity

As the country prepares for, or in some cases braces for, the return of Trump several changes are taking place. Trump in his common sense approach is leaving behind the old republican party as well as the modern progressives and the result will be to unify. The people on the right and left fringes cannot see this because they are so embedded in their thinking but the facts speak for themselves. Trump is not going to change social security, Medicare or Medicaid. He is not making a big issue of the debt. He has a middle of the road position on abortion. He is not bogged down with gender issues and things like DEI and changing the names of buildings. He is concentrating on inflation, immigration and public safety. He wants energy independence and jobs with real wage increases. He will promote reshoring and using all available means of creating energy including nuclear. On foreign policy he will reach a peaceful settlement in Ukraine and push Europe to rebuild. He will bring Russia back into the West and save Europe by sending in Russian gas. He will back Israel to end the fighting and rekindle the Abraham Accords to push the oil countries to rebuild Gaza. The never Trumpers will retain their beliefs and sit on the sidelines taking pop shots at whatever but most of the people will see the growing economy as a rebuilding of the American Dream. The big problem that Trump will have to deal with is inflation as the economy heats up

Nuke ships

There are 160 nuclear powered ships with 200 reactors and many of these have been in operation since the 1960's. As the social media companies continue their search for more electric power they could look to the half dozen companies who build nuclear reactors for ships to fill their needs. A super carrier reactor can be a large as 500 Mw which is about half the size of a regular large nuke power plant.

Smart

In my life time I have witnessed a cultural change that came to a head with the 2016 election of Trump. One of the ways to understand this change is to think of the different ways to be smart. There is book smart, creative smart, street smart and people smart. During the early post war years of the 50's an 60's a person considered smart had some of all four of these qualities. Then things began to slowly shift to placing too much emphasis on book smart. Everyone had to go to college to prepare for the jobs of the future. Who should go would be determined by SAT scores and GPA's. These people then impressed upon their children the importance of formal education and in short order the educated elite were running the country. These elites listened to the economic experts, more elites, who promoted free trade and this brought more prosperity to the elites who barely noticed that it was destroying those who did not go to college. They claimed to be the champions of the working people while they took away their livelihoods. We had Wall Street and Main Street. The qualities of people smart, things like kindness, understanding, compassion and being neighborly lost value and the phrase who ever ends up with the most toys wins, became the new mantra. As the country entered the new century the regular people began to wake up to the fact that the experts were not always right and often times didn't care about them. Today we have one group of people with years of higher education and higher incomes who are mostly White and another group who are less educated and all colors. Somewhere along the way it dawned on people that one should never confuse higher education with intelligence that the other smarts like people smart, creative smart and street smart have value.

News

This is the time of the year when people make predictions. I can see the continued decline of the main stream media including print. The TV news audience is aging out. The people who will lose their jobs will move to pod casts and make more money. Bill OReilly who was a Fox star with 4 million nightly viewers now has a podcast that has 24 million viewers. The average Fox news viewer is 69 years old.

Migrants

When the discussion of migrants comes up the argument is made that these are the people who harvest our crops, change the beds in the motels, work in restaurants and cut the grass. This is not an argument that can stand up to thousands of women and girls be molested coming across Mexico, 300,000 young people dead from fentenyl, billions of profits to cartels, 300,000 missing children and thousands of convicted criminals roaming the streets. There is a way to get rid of the bad and keep the good. First deport all convicted criminals, second deport all who have been through the courts and found not eligible of asylum and find the missing children. For those who remain offer work permits which will lead to green cards which will lead to a path to citizenship. All of these changes depend first and foremost on securing the border.

Budget cuts

Much of any presidents success depends on the atmosphere within country. Now Trump is riding high in this regard and he would like to keep things upbeat for as long as possible. The appointment of Musk and Ramaswamy to ring in government spending is just one example. They will only be able to make recommendations but the congress has to do the cuts and that will not happen. They won't make these recommendations until July 2026 and by that time the excitement will be gone so not much will be done. The next exciting idea is mass deportations. Obama deported 2.5 million but Trump will do less than half of that. After getting rid of the criminals, big business will step in and demand that the rest remain since they need the workers but once again that will be two or three years from now and the excitement will have abated. This will open the door to a compromise of providing a path to citizenship which can lead to immigration reform but it depends on securing the border which has a good chance of being done.

Trump

At the Trump press conference yesterday a question came up as to whether Trump would launch a preemptive strike against Iran and he refused to answer for obvious reasons but it was mindful of LBJ. In David Halberstrams book, The Best And The Brightest, Johnson is asked by a cub reporter as to how many people work in the White House and he responds by saying, you have an opportunity to interview the most powerful man in the world and you ask a chicken shit question like that. I wonder if that reported learned an important lesson and surprised at how gentlemanly Trump responded. Is this a sign of a new and gentler Trump.

Lies

It is understood by many that good ideas can be undermined by awarding misbehavior. One example in the news today is free trade. All economist agree that free trade means that the country that can produce a product more efficiently while maintaining quality should make that product. But this all goes by the wayside when country like China makes products using unsafe working conditions while destroying the environment, manipulating currency and using low paid and sometimes slave labor. This happens when a financial incentive takes precedent over good manufacturing practice. Another example is free speech. Our first amendment allows speech even if and most importantly when it is distasteful or even hateful. This becomes distorted when places like social media discover that the more egregious lies get the most clicks and thus lying is rewarded by financial incentives. Mark Twain understood this when he said, a lie can travel half way around the world while the truth in putting on its shoes. In times past if a lie was printed in the local paper it did not instantly appears in 10,000 papers across the country. Often times the lie is repeated because it satisfies the need of the reader.

Rape or not

This week the woman who claimed that the Duke lacrosse players raped her admitted that she lied. The people who believed her are now using the same defense that Al Sharpton used in the Tawanna Bawley case when she also admitted that she lied. Sharpton said, that maybe she lied but we know that what she claimed happens all too often. This led Sharpton to national acclaim and landed him a job on MSNBC.

Migrants

Many observers are wondering why the Chicago Mayor is refusing to cooperate with ICE in deporting migrants who are convicted criminals. Some say his strategy is to make it difficult for ICE to operate to the point where they will be arresting migrants who have not been convicted of a crime and then these individuals can be paraded before the press showing how non criminals are being rounded up with the criminals. This is much like the successful strategy used by Hamas to commingle civilians with fighters. The mayor will then depend on the press to push his position as they show a migrant who has not committed any crime and is working to take care of his family. This will be similar to the cases where children were ripped from the arms of their mothers and put in cages. It was very effective.

Omnibus

The federal budget process is broken down into 12 appropriation bills each handling different areas such a defense, energy, agriculture and so on. Only four times in the past 50 years has congress completed this job. The other times they have pushed everything together and passed a temporary solution called the omnibus bill. The reason to break down the budget into parts is to have some control over where the money goes but by passing, the all together bill, allows for all sorts of mischief projects. One of the reasons that the bureaucracy has gained so much power is because congress cannot do its job. The fall back position is that every department gets what they got last year plus a little more and this opens the door to waste, abuse and fraud. If the omnibus approach is what the country will continue to use, then one way to get the budget under control is to say next years budget will have a cap of one percent less than the inflation rate. The congress can still have all of its wasteful spending but over time the budget will fall in line. Obama tried something like this when they agreed to cut defense as much as social programs in 2015. The bill passed but only lasted two years. The congressmen missed their pet projects that were used primarily to get reelected. .

Change

Like so many things in life and here in the US in politics, small changes often occur over extended periods of time and eventually come to a turning point. The bureaucracy has been growing in power since the end of WW2 and has now reached the place where people want to curtail some of this power. The bureaucrats consider each new incoming administration as just people they have to pander to for a few years before continuing with their long range plans. As when one bureaucrat called the incoming group the Christmas help. They seem not to be concerned with what the votes want as indicated by election result but rather what they see is best for the country. They want cabinet positions filled with people within the system, that is, people who think like they do, people who will be willing to continue the on going programs. The same is true for presidential candidates. They want experienced politicians who understand the system, meaning people who are willing to maintain the statue quo. Trump came in as outsider and is now bringing in people whose agenda differs from the establishment and the insiders are fighting to maintain their power. The first test will be the confirmation hearings but the big battles will commence on January 20 when Trump officially takes office. Every change in every department will be challenged and the administration will have to prove the value of each change and this is the way it should be.

Electric power

For the past 30 years the production of electricity in the US has remained relatively steady. This is the result of two main factors. First is the transfer of industrial facilities overseas and second the increased efficiency of heating and cooling technology but all of that is coming an end. First the improved quality in things like AC units and light bulbs has reached the limit. Second industry is coming back home. These two things are happening when new computer technology, things like AI, are just beginning. The result will be a shortage of electric power and since politicians will not allow voters to experience blackouts, industry will be shorted. In anticipation of that many industries are trying to develop their own private supply of electric power but there will not be enough to go around. It will be necessary to restart many coal plants that have been closed by using natural gas. This must be combined with not shutting down any more nuclear plants and getting started on building new nuke plants. It will have to start with the typical large, one gig, plants that everyone is familiar with and then follow up with small reactors. The change of coal to gas can be completed within a few years while building new nuke plants will take five to seven years and small nuke reactors will come in ten years. While this is going on the expansion of wind and solar will continue. This assumes that the sale of EV's will be far less than currently predicted because people will discover they cannot charge the cars. It would also help if reshoring happens more slowly than expected.

Heisman

This years winner of the Heisman is Travis Hunter and while he has exceptional football stats he has something more. He is a 4 point student with a 36 score on the ACT and 1,600 on the SAT. On top of that he is a great dancer. I'm impressed.

Syria

In watching the events in Syria many foreign policy experts are saying this is an opportunity for the US to rewrite Middle East history and open the door for democracy. This was tried and failed in Afghanistan and Iraq and the world found out that not every country wants to model itself after the West. Syria gained independence in 1945 and was ungovernable until 1970 when dictator Assad took control and passed the country on to his son when he died in 2000. In 2011 a civil war started and ended with the recent ouster of Assad. Many of these countries are tribal and Syria is no exception as it is often described as clan based. Trump immediately came out and suggested that the US stay out of this mess and let the locals decide their future and most feel this will be his policy when he takes office. Many hope that Trump will concentrate on ending wars not starting wars. Of course the many do not include the infamous military industrial complex.

Confirmation

As the senate prepares for the upcoming confirmation hearings things will be different this time. Each of Trump's nominees are coming in with a mandate to shake up the system and this will be of grave concern to many senators. If you, as a senator, have been receiving campaign funds from one lobby group and now your area is under assault, you will be under a lot of pressure to not confirm any nominee who might threaten your source of income. Normally the incoming nominees are already a part of the system and not likely to make any drastic changes but not this time. Interest groups spent a record $4.2 billion lobbying federal lawmakers in 2023, led by the pharmaceutical and health products industries.

Gender transition

The subject of gender transition is controversial to say the least. There are some areas of agreement. First the issue will be decided state by state and the Supreme Court is expected to confirm that much like the position they took on abortion. Second there is a majority agreement that an adult can make this decision for himself. The tough questions arise around transitioning children and more specifically what are the parents rights concerning transitioning. The state has an obligation to protect children so the law demands that they stay in school until age 18. Parents cannot serve alcohol to their children. Parents cannot refuse life saving treatment for their children. This means the sticky question is whether a parent can allow a gender changing operation on a child or tougher yet on a child that is too young to understand the ramifications. Surgery is currently limited to age 16 but there are exceptions where puberty blocker are allowed at age 8. The number of gender affirmation surgeries (GAS) rose from 4,552 in 2016 to 13,011 in 2019, 12,818 in 2020 and among this group 3,678 were children ages 12 to 18. These younger children are rare just like late term abortions but they happen. There are concerns that this will progress. Schools can hand out condoms without parental permission and in six states a minor can have an abortion without parental concent.

Grid

There are currently ten large companies building new facilities to produce batteries for EV's in the US. This is at a time when the grid is under stress from current usage. Add to that the industrial expansion expected by reshoring and the vast new demand coming from data processing centers needed by the big social media companies and the $64,000 question is where are these EV's going to plug in. The problem is already well known as the $7.5 billion set aside in the Infrastructure Bill to create 500,000 charging stations has built only 7 in the three years since the bill was passed. Adding to the problem is that the original excitement about EV's is losing steam and 48% of EV owners say they are going back to gas cars. Automakers from Ford Motor and General Motors to Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, Jaguar Land Rover and Aston Martin are scaling back or delaying their electric vehicle plans. This lack of power on the grid can be overcome by building small nuclear reactors and placing them at various high use points along the grid.

Democrats

After the big loss to Reagan in 1980 the democrats got together to try and recover. A large group called themselves the new democrats. Their plan was to win back the White working people who had slowly drifted away in the 60's and 70's. People saw the democrats as being more interested in special interest groups like the disadvantaged racial and economic people instead of the working folks. They began to move to the center with policies like free trade, deregulation, lower taxes and cuts to the welfare state. It took 12 years to recover but Clinton came along with his policy of triangulation which in simple terms means not being ideological but pragmatic. The Dems are now facing the same situation but this time they are facing Trump who is already the triangulation president. They will maintain many of Trumps policies but they will have to redefine their positions on things like two sexes, transmen in women's sports and gender surgery on children and so on. It may take 12 years again but they will adjust to the will of the voters and make the necessary changes. It takes time for people to adjust to these cultural changes and in 12 years all of these things may be more acceptable. There will be no DEI or CRT but they will develop policies that attack the income and wealth gap with higher taxes on the rich. They will move away from identity politics and tackle the gap in test scores. It will then be their turn again.

Nuclear

When it comes to regulations it is necessary to balance quality with quantity. It is not possible to make a perfect product so guidelines are established to produce safe products at acceptable cost. South Korea has 26 nuclear reactors which provide one-third of the countries power. Their most recent plant was just completed in 56 months at a cost of $3,571 per kW. The US has built only one nuclear power plant since 1980 and that was just finished in April. It took 15 years to build and cost $19,784 per kW. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) was created as an independent agency by Congress in 1974 to ensure the safe use of radioactive materials for beneficial civilian purposes while protecting people and the environment A good argument could be made that the agency is trying for perfect in an imperfect world. Others suggest that the regulators are being influenced by anti nuclear groups like Green Peace, the fossil fuel industry and wind and solar proponents.

Regulations

One of the achievements of the Biden Administration was the infrastructure bill which included $65 billion for supplying broadband to all Americans. Almost four years later not one person has been connected. This illustrates the dyer need for changes in regulations as the country brings back industries from overseas. The government placed so many regulations on the broadband project that no construction company wanted the job. Things like hiring only union workers, aged people and various minority groups like LGBTO and native Americans. By the time they get this project underway fiber optics will be replaced with satellites. This is already done with Elon Musk's Starlink system but the government would not use that because they claimed it would result in a monopoly. Some day in the future the government using subsidies will hire some company to put up a system to compete with Musk. The Bill also contained $7.5 billion for charging stations but only a hand full have been installed. The reason is that the grid is not capable of handling the extra power draw. If a private company had been hired to install these units they would have quickly pointed out that they could put in the chargers but there would be no power to them. Government regulators lack the business experience to properly carry out the request of congress. As the country prepares to double the industrial base there is a need for a review of regulations.

Inflation

The exit polls indicate that high prices were a major concern and these will not come down overall. Increasing energy production will bring down the price of transportation and that represents 12% of the cost of most consumer goods. Inflation is always going up with the exception of the depression years. People who voted for Trump thinking that prices will come down will be disappointed but with proper management prices may not rise as fast as expected in an economy that is experiencing rapid growth. With growth the increase in wages can offset some of the increase in prices which helps but that will be a challenge especially early on. As reshoring becomes the norm there will be upward pressure on prices due to wage/price inflation. Recently Trump has been saying he will bring down inflation where he used to say prices.

ICE

The battle between sanctuary cites and ICE can best be seen by looking at NY City where there are 759,218 migrants of which 58,626 are convicted criminals of which 1,053 are gang members. They mayor wants to work with ICE to pick up and deport the convicted criminals but the city council refuses to undo the sanctuary city status. This means that the city police are prohibited from helping ICE find these criminals. After 9-11 it was revealed that the CIA and FBI were not cooperating because of territorial disputes and this led to the inability to uncover the fact that these terrorist were training to be pilots. Now we have local and federal government agencies squabbling and making it difficult to enforce the laws. There are over 600 sanctuary jurisdictions of various sizes across the country so this is no small problem. If and when this is resolved it can open the door to a nation wide program of deporting all migrant who are convicted criminals along with all gang members which when the border is closed can lead to a different way of dealing with the remaining migrants. One suggestion is to look first at the 1.2 million migrants who have been through the courts and denied amnesty while simultaneously finding the 300,000 lost children. The last step will be to offer work permits to those who remain which will contain the promise of green cards based on conditions like not committing crimes, paying taxes and learning English.

Trump

In reviewing the way Trump was portrayed over the last election it started with him being the end of democracy. It then moved on to him being Hitler and this was followed up with him being in cognitive decline. Now that he has been elected the latest is that anyone who works with him is bending the knee or kissing the ring. He is egotistic to the point he can easily be manipulated by flattery. Along the way it was claimed that he was only interested in making money. Pryor to the start up of Truth Social he was scheduled to be the first president to leave office less wealthy than when he entered office. The long awaited tax returns that he was hiding because of some nefarious activities revealed that he did not take salary, did not take his social security and gave millions to charity.

Insurance

Today's lesson is Insurance 101. I just found out that the transmission went out on my car so I called Car Shield to buy a policy and was told I had to get the insurance before I had a claim. I went to the lake and found my cabin was in flames so I called State Farm to buy fire insurance and they said I had to buy it before the fire. I just came from the doctor and found out I only have a few weeks to live to I called Prudential to buy life insurance but they said I had to buy before I got sick. But don't give up yet. I found out I live in the flood plane so I waited until the river looked like it would be a problem and called the federal flood insurance and they said as long as I buy within 30 days of the flood I am covered. Most people wait and many times no flood comes. The result is the program lost $2 billion last year and had to borrow $36 billion from the government to pay claims. Obamacare allows a person to buy health insurance after they get sick and the program cost the government $91 billion last year. This is after they collect on average $500 per month in premiums along with an average $6000 per annual deductible. The lesson to be learned is that if you want to run an insurance company and stay in business you have to declare that the policy must be purchased before the event.

Change

The story is told of an old well established company that always promoted from within. As time passed they were able to survive but not grow like they wanted. People who had worked their way up through the ranks wanted to maintain the status quo. The company often set up plans to make changes but those in charge were the same people who were ingrained in the existing system. One day the newest CEO made the bold move to look to the outside for new ideas. He hired consultants and they came back and told him that it would be necessary to revamp the entire company from the ground up. This would mean disrupting the lives of his friends and fellow employees but he made the decision to go for the change. This meant that some plants had to be upgraded, some sold and some shut down. It meant investing larges sums in R&D, eliminating several layers of management and hiring a time study group to increase efficiency and reducing waste. This causes a total upheaval throughout the organization but after several years the changes paid off handsomely. This is what Trump wants to do with the federal government and the good old boys will fight to keep the system so get ready for a battle. Take just one group, the press. These people have spent years cultivating sources within government and their livelihood depends on this inside information. This will be jeopardized and they will oppose changes.

Elite

Polling has discovered a group of people that they call the Elite one percent. It shows that the degree gap is not between those with college degrees and those without but rather those who have post grad degrees and others. Those with BA's are closer to high school grads than they are to the elite. Who are these people. 73% identify as Democrats, 67% are 35-54 years of age, 86% are White, 47% support Sanders like policies and most all have post grad degrees. A majority in this group think that parents should not have control over their children's education, that government should control speech on social media, that you should have a college degree to vote, that 69% of them believe that the rest of us have too much freedom, 75% believe that the government should confiscate all guns and finally they believe that most people think like they do. This group includes bureaucratic, corporate, intellectual, military, media, and government elites who control the principal institutions in the United States and whose opinions and actions influence the decisions of the policymakers. After reading this, I was reminded of my favorite definition of and expert. An expert is a man who knows more and more about less and less until he knows everything about nothing.

Defense bill

The allies were surprised by the Russian new missile Oreshnik when it was used for the first time. Russian ruler Vladimir Putin said that the appearance of the Oreshnik missile system in service with the Russian army "minimizes the need to use nuclear weapons." This missile uses multiple war heads and travels at 10 times the speed of sound cannot be shot down by anti missiles like the Iron Dome. The reason that NATO entered the fray is the fear the Russia might use nukes but it like Putin says the Oreshnik is the same as nukes. So now what. The answer is the same as it was before this new missile. The war must come to a peaceful settlement. The power of the military industrial complex can be seen in the upcoming Nation Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) which is commonly called the defense bill. There are provisions in there that will prevent Trump from attempting to end the war. The NDAA’s treatment of the Ukraine conflict is emblematic of its broader assault on executive authority. Key provisions, such as Section 1303, explicitly prohibit any recognition of Russian sovereignty over Ukrainian territory, tying the President’s hands in potential peace negotiations This means that Trump could not negotiate land for peace. There are many people who want the war to go on as long as it takes. Congress wants to pass this $900 billion dollar defense bill but does that mean the war must go on.

Germany

Germany, the country that is famous for top of the line engineering is collapsing before our eyes. They have made a series of critical mistakes and the war has crushed them. Some forty years ago they decided that nuclear power was bad and wind and solar must replace fossil fuels. They recently shut down the last of their 17 nuke plants without realizing that they live in a climate where they don't have much wind or sunlight. The Ukraine war started and they immediately stop buying natural gas from Russia and now their industries are shutting down because the cost of energy is too high. Imported LNG from the US is four times the cost of Russian gas. As auto and chemical companies close or reduce production or move to the US the country is suffering from a brain drain. As a last ditch attempt to save the day they are reopening their coal plants and they have the dirtiest coal. The war cannot end too soon from their standpoint. Once they reopen the gas lines from Russia they can start a recovery. If they have seen the light they will move back to nuclear power but once the anti nuke people get in control it is not easy to change their minds.

AI congress

When my flip phone rings, I see myself as a metaphor for the federal government. As AI explodes on the scene private companies are gearing up to recreate the world and the feds are sitting their with their 30 year old computers trying to figure out what's happening. People in congress are the ones that often say they are not good at math and they too are trying to understand these new concepts. Fortunately Elon Musk has got the ear of the incoming president and he has plans to remake the government from the top down. While most of the interest is on cutting waste and fraud the big side benefit is that he will bring the latest technology on stream and increase efficiency in all areas. For many these new ways mean job losses and early on that may be the case but in time new jobs will evolve. Some people feel that Trump should slow down AI to transition more slowly to lessen the negative effects of fast job loss but others say you can't stop progress and they argue that other countries like China will pass us by. Things are changing so fast both in technology and politics that many of the old gray beards in congress have no idea how to deal with the changes. These are the same people who are asking their grandchildren to fix their phones. These fast changing times require new young bloods to take over but the people just keep re electing the incumbents. Let's hope that future congresses have more members who are engineers than lawyers.

Post war

Looking back over the post war years in the US, which is something I can do, one outstanding economic policy emerges. It started with manufacturing and ended up in finance. During the great industrial boom of the 50's and 60's the CEO had a 5 year plan, a 10 year plan and even a 20 year plan. They were willing to spend current profits on R&D in the hopes of increased profits in the future. They wanted their employees to stay with them as the company grew, the womb to the tomb concept. This led to long term productivity increases which led to higher wages. Since growth was slow and steady inflation remained under control. Come the 1970's and the business philosophy began to change and CEO's were under pressure to cut cost and this led to moving production overseas where lower wages and fewer regulation offered rewards. The CEO's began to shorten their horizons and the next quarterly stock value became more important than long term growth. Companies could see the stock price more dependent on financial matters than on manufacturing which led to a new corporate department called mergers and acquisitions which led to a new breed of investors called venture capitalist. At this point Wall Street jumped on the band wagon and everything was about the stock price. Things like stock buy backs replace more efficient manufacturing facilities since production could just be sent overseas. The overall result was the transfer of wealth from a large middle class to a small elite at the top. In the last 50 years the top one percent of Americans have taken $50 trillion dollars from the bottom 90%. Starting with the mortgage crisis in 2008 and accelerating with the 2016 election of Trump things began to change and the change is continuing today and will do so over the next 20 years while globalization comes to and end and massive reshoring results in a doubling of the industrial base. The tough times for the working people have come to a end and the good times are starting.

Uniting

Based on policy, Trump will be a better uniter than Biden because Trump is pragmatic and Biden is ideological. Trump moved away from the old style republicans when he didn't put the national debt at the top of his list. He said he would not touch social security, Medicare or Medicaid. He has the most popular position on abortion, wants to secure the border and is tough on crime. He is not for national healthcare or for transmen in women's sports. The only thing that will stand in his way of bringing about a united country is the animosity that many have toward him. If these people would be willing to look past their personal dislike for Trump the path for a united country would be opened. As time passes and the treats of the end of democracy and retaliation fade many of these people will begin to change. They will move away from the personal attacks on Trump and start looking at his policies. At that point the country will return to the two party system and by debating policy the country will win. The US needs both parties to be strong and willing to talk about their differences and somewhere in the middle unite.

FBI

The way that Cash Petal goes after the FBI will be from the ground up. He will view the organization the way the field agents see it. They are the ones who work directly with the criminal element on a daily bases. He will move as many people as possible out of Washington DC and examine the responsibilities of each and how they are performing. Any duplication, any time wasted, any work outside the direct responsibility of the FBI will be eliminated. More than 7,000 people work in the headquarters building compared to 16,000 in the field. Defense Department nominee Pete Hegseth will use the same approach in the military. It will be ground up from the standpoint of the active duty soldier. It will be like a new CEO taking over the company and the first thing would be to survey all the employees to get input from the people who do the day to day task of running the business. This information added to the long term goals of the company will set policy. This will be a new approach and a break from the past for government.

Gender jobs

The question should women serve in combat is quite different in today's wars. During WW 2 soldiers were often in the field for many months without any safe places to rest but in later wars things changed. The island hopping in the Pacific during WW 2 lasted three years and the troops were not allowed to come back home for the whole period. They charged the beaches, took the island and back on the boats to the next island. In Afghan the tour was 12 months but many times were available for a break away from action. The answer to whether women should serve in combat is not a simple one. It seems to many that women could best serve in non combat positions. Most disabled vets spoke highly of women who served in hospitals and other care facilities. In today's world it is sometimes unpopular to say one gender does something better than the other but common sense tells us this is so. Women are better care takers. Witness how women are taking over the medical profession as they did with education. Women are better working as sales clerks in women's clothing stores and men are better working in hard ware stores. In the military women could best serve as nurses and men in combat. This is not to say that each couldn't do both but that one group is more suited.

SS

Social security became taxable in 1984. The rule was when your income plus one-half of your SS exceeded $25,000 you would be subject to tax. One problem is that $25,000 in 1984 is the same as $75,000 today which means many low income people who were exempt from the tax are now paying the tax. If they can't eliminate the tax the next best thing would be to raise the exemption. This would mean that a single person could have $60,000 in income other than SS and not pay any tax. Today that limit is $15,000.

Economy

As the various pundits digest the election a consensus is gradually developing. It has two legs. First Trump had the more popular policies for the border, the economy, law and order and foreign policy. This led to discussions about his personal character and personality quirks. Second the attempt at a cultural revolution was tried and failed. People did not want transmen in women's sports or bathrooms. They did not want gender surgery on children. They did not want men dressed as women dancing in schools. They did not want statues being torn down. They did not want streets and buildings renamed. They were tired of claims of racism and other isms. They didn't like DEI and CRT. While the democrats spent their time on the above by calling Trump names like Hitler and fearing the loss of democracy they lost track of things like the cost of gas and groceries. Many voters who did not like Trump either stayed home for voted for Trump because of economic issues. The old rule of its the economy stupid still held. The final result led to the working class moving toward the conservatives. The democratic governors met this week and concluded that they must get back to the old ways of helping the working people.

Birthright

The practice of birthright citizenship is only in the Americas with two exceptions, Azerbaijan and Pakistan. No European countries, Asian countries or Africa allow such practice. Birthright means if you are born in the US you are a citizen even if your parents are not citizens. This right is in the constitution and not likely to be changed as Trump would like. It is true that the intent of the law is being abused when pregnant women sneak across the border and stay in a motel for a few days and then have the baby. Once the baby grows up it can use form I 30 to apply for citizenship for relatives. Over the years this has happened many times. Having a secure border will minimize this problem and would be much easier than changing the constitution. Many believe that Trump is aware of this but is bring up the subject to focus attention on illegal crossings.

SS

Social security became taxable in 1984. The rule was when your income plus one-half of your SS exceeded $25,000 you would be subject to tax. One problem is that $25,000 in 1984 is the same as $75,000 today which means many low income people who were exempt from the tax are now paying the tax. If they can't eliminate the tax the next best thing would be to raise the exemption. This would mean that a single person could have $60,000 in income other than SS and not pay any tax. Today that limit is $15,000.

Mayor Adams

A new phrase that has become popular in the past few years is virtue signaling. This refers to the act of publicly expressing opinions or taking actions that are intended to demonstrate one's moral superiority or good character. One of the more well publicized were the actions of former NY city mayors who championed sanctuary city status for New York. Mayor Adams followed in their foot steps when in June of 2021 Adams emphasized the importance of NY City remaining a sanctuary city. This is the way these mayors showed their compassion for migrants. So far so good. Starting in April of 2022 Texas began sending migrants to NY City and since then Adams changed his view. Migrants were not only using up a large part of the cities budget but they were committing large numbers of crimes. Adam's asked for help from the federal government but was ignored. When he started to blame Biden he was charged with using campaign money for personal use. Trump is promising to solve the problem with migrants and Adams is asking for his help. Adams wanted to change the sanctuary city status but the city council refused. “They stated they’re not willing to change the sanctuary city law. I think they’re wrong. I have my teams looking at my power as executive orders. It was one thing to champion migrants when they were in Texas but another thing when they came to New York City. It is like wealthy people who live in safe gated communities whereas a different story for those who live in the inner city. Remember when some migrants were sent to Martha's Vineyard and they were quickly sent away.

ICE

A court order in California forced ICE to release more than 250 criminal aliens from the Adelanto ICE Processing Center. Sanctuary cities and states are in the news but many question what that means. If local authorities arrest a migrant they do not call ICE and have the feds come and get the person. He is put in jail and many times released in a short time. If ICE issues a detainer, An immigration detainer is a request from ICE that asks a federal, state or local law enforcement agency — including jails, prisons or other confinement facilities — to: Notify the requesting agency as early as possible before they release a removable noncitizen. Hold the noncitizen for up to an additional 48 hours These cities refuse to do this. This is not illegal because a detainer is just a request. If ICE collects migrants convicted of crimes the local authorities can force ICE to release them. A court order in California forced ICE to release more than 250 criminal aliens from the Adelanto ICE Processing Center.

Iran

US President-elect Donald Trump has issued an apparent warning to Hamas, threatening "all hell to pay" if hostages held in Gaza are not released by the time he returns to the White House on 20 January. As the press reports on this statement, many feel they are missing the point. They assume that Trump means to go after Hama using Israeli forces and they would be partly right but there is more. Trump will go after Iran. He will start with bringing back the sanctions he put on Iran during his last term and if he doesn't get the hostages he will place an embargo on Iranian oil shipments. The sanctions under Trump reduced Iranian oil exports to $16 billion in 2020 but Biden removed the sanctions and their exports increased to $48 per year. Oil represents about one-forth of Iran's GDP.

Syria

The news about Syria this AM is that the US cannot stand outside looking in rather they must be active participants in helping Syria to reconstitute as a free society that treats all people with dignity. One interpretation of this is that the US must provide most of the money to rebuild the country and if necessary most of the troops. Then all of our allies stand with us.

California

Proposition 47 was passed in 2014 in California making stealing less than $950 a misdemeanor. The result was mass stealing by people who then sold the stolen property on E Bay. It became a business for many. The news was filled with videos showing large groups of people walking into retail stores and walking out with bags of merchandise without paying. In 2024 California passed proposition 36 which reversed prop 47 and it passed with 71% of the vote. Two questions. What were the 29% who voted to keep the free stealing law and what did the people think would happen when they voted for making stealing a misdemeanor.

Syria

Today using air power the US struck 75 ISIS targets in Syria. The US still has 900 troops stationed near the area where these targets were hit. If ISIS retaliates and kills or injures any of these soldiers then the US can use that as a excuse to send forces to Syria. A cynical person might conclude that the US was just looking for a reason to get involved. In remarks from the White House on Sunday, Biden called the regime’s fall “a moment of risk” and of opportunity. “It’s a moment of historic opportunity for the long-suffering people of Syria to build a better future for their proud country. It’s also a moment of risk and uncertainty. As we all turn to the question of what comes next, the United States will work with our partners and the stakeholders in Syria to help them seize an opportunity to manage the risk,” he said. The US will “support Syria’s neighbors, including Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq and Israel, should any threat arise from Syria during this period of transition,” Biden said during his remarks from the Roosevelt Room.

Syria

While the government in Washington sits silently stunned over the developments in Syria, Trump has come out and said the US needs to stay out of the mess and let China and Russia figure out what to do. Let those two countries send the money and troops to maintain order. Trump has indicated for some time he wanted to remove the 1,000 US troops currently stationed in Syria. This will not go well with the establishment in DC. They will be pushing for the US to step in and lead saying our allies depend on us. The generals will soon be on TV explaining why it is the responsibility of the US to lead the world and the defense contractors will be joining in. Since Trump wants to stay out, this will be the signal for the anti Trump people to start clamoring to get involved. This is how is always starts. Maybe this time will be different.

Border fence

The first border fences built along the U.S.-Mexico border to curb immigration from Mexico began in earnest under Democrats Franklin Delano Roosevelt and Harry S. Truman. After building fences for decades to stop animals, the federal government shifted its focus when people began migrating in significant numbers from south to north in the 1940s and 1950s. In 1971 Mrs Nixon established Friendship Park at the San Diego border and ordered the fence cut so she could greet migrants. Facing economic distress with migrants President Carter replaced the fence Nixon had cut with a bigger fence. President Reagan closed the border for a few weeks in 1985. In 1986 Reagan legalized 2 million migrants. President Clinton had a get tough policy at our borders and used steel to build fences. In 2006 President Bush signed the Secure Fence Act and authorized 700 miles of fencing. When he left office they had completed 500 miles and Obama continued building 130 more miles. He also funded the Border Patrol and deported more people than any president. Although Donald Trump championed building his wall, his administration only built about 85 miles of new fences. Biden wanted to add 20 miles but that is on hold.

Syria

The civil war in Syria erupted in 2011 as the people rose up against Assad who got help from Iran, Russia and Hezbollah. Many Syrians escaped to neighboring countries with over 3 million ending up in Turkey. Turkey shares a long border with Syria and there have been border disputes over the years. Turkey was also the first Arab country to make peace with Israel. The US supports the rebels but not with much military, maintaining a small contingent of 900 troops in Syria left over from the defeat of ISIS. Hezbollah is no longer helping Assad since they started fighting the Israelis. Russia is pulling out because of the war in Ukraine and Iran has shifted its focus on Gaza leaving Assad to fend mostly for himself. The Turkish backed rebels are taking advantage and moving towards the capital Demascus. So far the US has played this smart and stayed out of the fray. If Trump can end the fighting in Ukraine and Gazs some say the generals with backing from the defense industry will start looking to Syria for the next war.

Double dip

People who retired at age 62 before 1985 were eligible for something called double dipping or tripple dipping. People who worked for the federal government before 1987 were part of the civil service system. They had their own benefit programs. People hired after that time became part of a new system called FERS (federal employee retirement system). It was possible to work 20 years under civil service and then 5 years under FERS and then 10 years under social security and collect pension benefits from all three. In 1983 congress enacted the Windfall Elimination Act which curtailed this type of dipping. There are about 2.8 million people currently eligible for double dipping under the old rules who are not getting benefits because of the 1983 Act and congress has introduced a bill called Windfall Elimination Provision which would negate the 1983 Act and allow these people to double dip. Under today's rules a person receiving a civil service pension will have their social security reduced by two-thirds. For example if you receive a civil service pension of $3,000 per month and are eligible for $2,400 from social security your SS benefit will be reduced by $2,000 and you will end up with $3,000 from CS and $400 from SS. If the new law is enacted you will get your $2,000 back.

More SMR

The current nuclear power future in the US is looking at two different pathways. The first is the old way and that is building large (1000 megawatt) plants using uranium and lots of government financing and lots of government regulations. The second is small reactors (300 megawatts) using private financing and reduced regulations. The biggest expense in large nuke plants centers around safety regulations which delay construction time and add cost. Private companies like Amazon, Facebook and Google are willing to foot the bill for SMR's if the government will just get out of the way. These SMR's are not burdened with safety problems since they work at ordinary pressure and shut down automatically when power is lost. They are trucked to the use point and do not need outside resources like water. These social media companies can build their data centers where their customers are and just put the SMR next door.

SMR

The future of nuclear power in the US will be played out by doing the right thing for the wrong reasons. People in the energy business who are not bothered by politics know that nuclear is the solution to the problem of climate change but they are stymied by political concerns. Thus they will use a back door answer to get nuclear, mostly small modular reactors (SMR's), underway. They will convince the government that China is building SMR's and will soon be exporting them around the world most notably to the US. There are some indications that Trump understands this and will push to develop SMR's here in the US. Despite his support of fossil fuels, President-elect Trump may end up being supportive of nuclear power — not so much because it’s a clean energy source, but because of his goal, as he pledged during his campaign, to “bring Americans the lowest-cost energy and electricity on Earth.” There is no evidence at this time that would indicate that Trump is aware of thorium reactors but that can change quickly once the decision is made to go nuclear.

Justice

While watching the news surrounding the murder of the insurance company CEO many are reminded of the claim that the country has a two tiered justice system. Everyday an ordinary citizen is murdered in NY City but it is rarely, if at all, covered in the news. Many remember the dream time in the OJ trial.

Nuclear power

As the interest in nuclear power gets in the news one questions is often asked, that being, why does uranium fuel leave behind dangerous waste products. The answer lies in the fact that uranium comes in two types in nature and only one type is good for power plants. The type that is useful only represents less than one percent of naturally occurring uranium. The first step is to enrich this one percent up to five percent but that leaves the 95% left behind. When the reaction takes place and free neutrons start spinning around many smash into the 95% and change some of that into the undesirable waste. The use of thorium means there is no enrichment required and there is no left over stuff to create waste. Thorium is cheaper because it is more plentiful and there is no need to enrich. The country is now becoming a aware of the value of nuclear energy and the next step is to move away from uranium and to thorium. This way you use 100% of the fuel instead of only five percent.

Home policy

Trump's plan for the home front. Put new faces in all departments with the primary purpose of cleaning house. Use outside audits by Elon and Vivek and publish the results weekly on various social media sites. Include in these reports an expose' of all lobbyist activities as the best way to keep things open and above board. Trump to continue to express his thoughts and policies on line to help people follow their government. Combine this with regular Q&A with the press. Expedite the reshoring of business by reducing regulations and lowering taxes on companies that produce and sell in the US. Maximize fossil fuel production. Keep import taxes on countries that promote unfair trade practices. Renew the 2017 Trump tax cuts. Remove taxes on TIPS. Shut down the subsidies on the new green deal including the $7,500 on EV's and promote nuclear power. Raise the child tax credit to $5,000 and increase the earned income tax credit. Promote cooperation between community colleges and business to prepare high school grads for the new jobs in industry. Bring in immigrants from around the world based on merit and eliminating the department of education.

Gaza

Trump's plan for peace in the Middle East is slowly unfolding. First he will notify Netanyahu to go all in on destroying Hamas as quickly as possible. Israel to receive all needed military equipment from the US to do the job. Next Trump will reignite the Abraham Accords to bring Saudi Arabia on board. They will be willing partners in exchange for protection by the US. Only 10% of Muslims world wide are Shia and most of them live in Iran. This will isolate Iran from the rest of the Muslim world. Next Trump will re institute the sanctions on Iran and this will end their plans for expansion. Then the oil rich countries will agree to finance the rebuilding of Gaza using Israeli construction companies and Palestinian labor. This will lead to free elections in Gaza and open the door to the two state solution.

Border

The election of Trump has opened the door to the problems at the southern border. Trump is nominating individuals who will carry out his plans for the border. The government will re institute the remain in Mexico policy which will force Mexican President Steinbaum to close her 540 mile border with Guatemala since she does not want the migrants piling up on her side of the US Mexican border. Second the US will end catch and release and immediately return migrants to their country of origin. Next the 350,000 convicted criminal migrants will be deported. Then the search for the 300,000 lost children will begin while the government starts to deport the 1.2 million migrants who have been through the courts and were disqualified for asylum. This will end the dangerous journey for women and children crossing the 2,000 miles of desert, end the threat of fentenyl to US youth, cut off the profits to the cartels and use the border patrol to start sifting through the remaining migrants to determine their status. In time a system can be designed for a path to citizenship for these millions.

War

With the election of Trump a dream scenario that many have, has come a step closer to possible. It goes like this. Trump goes to Zenlensky and says if you don't negotiate land for peace the US will cut off your supplies of war materials and you will over time lose the entire country. Then Trump goes to Putin and says you will receive land for peace if you with draw your troops. The US led NATO will guarantee that Ukraine will not be allowed to join NATO. If you refuse then the US will send enough modern warfare equipment to drag on the war until your country is bankrupt. This is only step one. Next Putin opens up the pipelines to Europe and saves Germany from economic collapse. Germany is the heart of Europe and their recovery meant recovery for the rest of Europe. This is followed by opening the grain markets of Ukraine and Russia to the hungry people, mostly in Africa, and keeps the price of food low for the rest of the world. Then Russia in invited to join in free trade with Europe and the US which will revitalize their economy and help Europe recover. Then NATO will lead the European countries on a Marshall like plan to rebuild Ukraine. Europe will finance the reconstruction using European construction companies and Ukrainian labor. All the billions that are going to be wasted over the next many years (as long as it takes) will go to rebuilding. This will end the threat of nuclear war and bring economic prosperity to both Europe and Russia.