War

Iran is a country that uses proxies to carry out terror attacks. They always deny any cooperation in these attacks so the rest of the world sits by and watches. Iran was designated a State Sponsor of Terrorism by the US State Department since January 1984. For the past 40 years the US has stood by watching Americans being killed by various terror groups while occasionally responding with pin prick attacks. Presidents since Reagan have declared that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon but they have continued their pursuit for just such a weapon. As everyone is well aware, Trump is not like other presidents and has decided to take action. The status quo people will demand that the US continue with the old policy of negotiations. They will demand that the president get congressional approval before taking any action. Thus 535 members will debate what should be done which means the continuation of the existing policy. The congress will ask for specific plans as to what is the goal and how will it be attained. How many troops using what equipment from what locations, how much will it cost and estimates of damage and death to US assets.

Iran

The old adage, the straw that broke the camel’s back, is certainly appropriate for the Oct 7 invasion of Israel by Hamas. This led to the end of Hezbollah, the attack on Hamas, the 12-day war, the destruction of the Iranian nuclear facilities and now the direct attack on Iran. The Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, are now joining in the US in the war on Iran. The Abraham Accords started in Trump’s first term will now be further strengthened and hopefully lead to Saudi Arabia and Israel becoming partners in rebuilding Gaza. Step by step the Middle East is changing.

Socialism

There are certain politicians running for office under the banner of democratic socialist but this needs some clarification. Karl Marx came up with the modern-day idea of socialism by saying it starts with the people owning the means of production but it morphs into communism where certain people at the top will have central control over the economy. This is a daunting task to determine in advance how much of all products is needed and then set up programs to manufacture these. How many shoes of what size or how many bushels of wheat and so on. Contrast that with capitalism where the market determines how much of what is needed. A democratic socialist allows for free markets to produce profits and they then take those profits and redistributes them fairly to all the people. This closely resembles what the democratic party is today. They take the profits and then decide who gets what and how much. This leaves them in control. They of course believe they have the ability to carry out this plan much like a benevolent dictator. They will be compassionate and kind and there will be no super rich and no very poor.

Trump or not

As you scan across various news programs a common dilemma pops up. How can 80 million people think Trump is fine and 80 million think he is terrible. One way to explain this is to think about a man who works for a large corporation. He has work friends and he selects them based on common interest and various personality traits, just as he does with his friends away from work. When he looks at the president of the company, he doesn’t know the CEO on a personal basis and the personality of the CEO is of no importance. What he is interested in is whether the CEO can run the company in a profitable way to offer him job security. This is the case with Trump. If you judge him based on his personality you come to one conclusion but if you judge him on his performance you come to another conclusion. If what you see is a bombastic, blowhard, egotistical big mouth who exaggerates to the point of out right lies, then you are not going to vote for him. If, on the other hand, you see manufacturing jobs coming back to America, Europe having to pay for their own defense instead of relying on the US, secure borders, energy independence, wages rising faster than inflation, using the Abraham Accords to get Saudi Arabia to work with Israel to rebuild Gaza and trying to stop the war in Ukraine, you will vote for him. This doesn’t apply to you if you always vote for the party regardless of the candidate but is directed to independents who can be swayed by performance. You might say you prefer a candidate with a pleasant demeanor and great leadership skills but that is not the choice at this time.

California

California, following in the steps of Europe, has attached future growth to the green new deal. Government decisions are based on climate considerations. Passing laws, like no new gas-powered cars after 2035 which led to shutting vital oil pipelines and closing refineries and gas prices a dollar higher than the rest of the country. Home owners pay 30 cents per kWh when the other states pay 15 cents. In order to meet the environmental requirements, to build a house means $29,000 in permit fees compared to Texas $1,000. This also means 25 months to build a house vs the national average of 8 months. The result is the average cost of a home in California is over $800,000 vs the $375,000 in the rest of the country. The same story can be told for all economic development in the state. This is just what happened in Europe and their share of world GDP has declined from 27% in 1980 to 13% today. This is all based on the idea that wind and solar can replace fossil fuels. For 50 years after WW 2 California was booming having beautiful whether and scenery but since 2010 things have gone downhill. Even though the state has high income tax rates the budget has suffered. The state suffers from budget shortfalls and long-term liabilities of $500 billion to cover retirees present and future.

Future EV's

The latest view on electric cars is changing but still not correct. The conventional thinking is that the grid is not ready, that charging takes too long and the distance between charges is too short but those obstacles will be overcome in the future and EV’s will be the choice for most people. This overlooks the environmental harm caused by the mining, processing and disposal of the material used for batteries. It overlooks the poisoned ground water in China, the children mining cobalt in Africa and the indigenous communities being moved in South America to mine lithium. It completely ignores the facts that heavy farm and military equipment along with locomotives, ocean liners and airplanes cannot run on batteries. Ultimately cars will be hydrogen powered where there is no mining and the only bi product is water. As small nuclear reactors are mass produced the cost of electricity will come down and water will be changed into hydrogen and oxygen thru electrolysis. The hydrogen can then be used as fuel for cars and light trucks and changed into diesel fuel using CO2 from the air and then returning it to the air upon combustion. This is carbon neutral. These reactors will also be used to desalt sea water and then used to irrigate, what are today desert areas, to provide low-cost ag products. The push for small reactors by big tech companies is now underway and will rapidly expand. The energy of the future is nuclear and the fuel will slowly change from uranium to thorium.

New jobs

As the reindustrializing of America continues, it will require an updated understanding of what is meant by a manufacturing job. The modern facility requires people to work in clean and pleasant surroundings, punching buttons on a panel board. This requires on the job training and hiring people right out of high school. Because productivity will be higher wages can be higher. Higher wages can be offset by lower transportation cost by producing closer to home. This also shortens supply chains and prevents foreign companies from using products as bargaining chips. Modern companies must be able to adjust quickly to markets and making products at home makes that easier. The old-style assembly jobs, where people stood all day doing repetitive actions are no longer the case but young people must be made aware of these changes. The plants will be staffed with engineers and technicians and the pay will be adjusted accordingly. In 1950 35% of private jobs were in manufacturing and today that has dropped to 8%. Many of these jobs were sent overseas and they are now coming back.

Income gap

For the past 50 years the primary economic policy of the democratic party has been the redistribution of wealth. The purpose is to take money from those who have a lot and give it to those who have less in the form of public assistance programs. The party will control who gets what and how they get it. The hope was that helping those who are less fortunate, would lead to voters approving more benefits and that part has worked. Here are some examples of new programs since 1970 not including Medicare and Medicaid which started in 1965. Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), Child tax credit, Medicare part D (drugs), CHIP providing healthcare to children whose family income is too high for Medicaid and finally Obamacare. The result has not helped the income gap. Income inequality in the US has risen sharply since 1970, with the share of aggregate income for middle-class households dropping from 62% in 1970 to 43% by 2018, while the upper-income tier's share rose from 29% to 48%. The main reason why middle-income groups lost the race is because of globalization, which is now coming to an end and incomes for working people are currently rising more than inflation, something that rarely happened since 1970.

Immigration

Today the possible loss of jobs because of AI is a hot topic but one side of the equation is rarely mention and that is consumption. The country needs workers not only to manufacture things but to act as consumers. It does no good to produce goods, no matter what the price, if there are no buyers. This is the problem facing many countries around the world. Their population is not replacing itself. It takes 2.1 babies per woman of reproductive age to stay even. Here are some fertility rates in different countries. Japan 1.2, China 1.0, South Korea .75 and Italy at 1.2. The US is 1.6 and that is why we need legal immigration. It will take 1.5 to 2 million immigrants each year to maintain the population. The immigration system should be set up selecting young adults with skills enough to support themselves in the kind of jobs where help is needed.

Computer help

I have witnessed the advance in computer over my business life. Early in my career I helped people with financial plans for their retirement. I would gather information from them as to their current earnings and savings and what their goals were. Then by hand I would determine how much they had to invest to achieve their objective. This meant taking a percent of their current earnings which would increase over time and taking a percentage of that and investing at a projected rate of return. I would do this for each future years often time for up to 40 years. In the late 1970’s my company, using a main frame computer in New York could do this calculation for me but I had to send the information to them and wait for a return which took about two weeks. By 1980 they had such a computer in Fargo and the turn a round was reduced to two days. Then in 1982 I purchased an HP 10 calculator and a local engineering student showed me how to do the calculation and I could complete a plan in a couple of hours. Today, I could do all of that on my smart phone in a few minutes. Imagine how many situations like mine have happened and are happening.

Smaller chips

Early chips used visible light to imprint the circuits on the disk but to get more in smaller spaces UV light became the way. UV light ranges from 10 to 400 nanometers (nm) and the newest chips are 3 nanometers so how is this possible. Modern machines can use 13 nm light to imprint 3 nm chips by vaporizing tiny droplets of molten tin and using the vapor as a lens to reduce the size to 3 mn much like a light microscope can magnify. These machines are made exclusively by ASML in the Netherlands at a cost of $400 million each. Eventually these will have to be made in the US to protect the chip business from depending on outside sources. In the long run all supply chain materials will have to be made in the US.

Chips

During the mid-20th century home phones became popular with 70% of homes having a phone by 1950. At that time Bell had a regulated monopoly until 1984 when it was broken up in to smaller companies. Ma Bell became the baby Bells. Part of the agreement with the government is that Bell would share technology. In 1947 Bell invented the transiter and later how to place the transiter on a chip. This allowed connections between transiters without using wires. The first chips were memory chips and each purpose needed a special chip. Later chips were programmable and one chip could be used for many purposes. In time US companies like Apple began to design their chips and manufacture them in Tiawan. The early chips were used primarily by the military but today 99% of chips are used in private industry. Countries around the world, led by the Soviet Union, used espionage to steal research and thus never became adept at their own research. Even today the research is done by American companies. China’s entire chip industry is founded on intellectual theft. Because of the way the chip industry evolved the supply chain is world wide and this leads to possible problems with national defense. The current trend is to bring home manufacturing to the US and this includes the chip business. American companies like Apple are now producing chips in America and this will expand over time until the supply chain is all America.

Intervention

As D Day for Iran approaches, it is time to look back at the US attack on Libya in 2011. Three women, Hillary Clinton, Samantha Powers and Susan Rice convinced Obama to intervene in Libya based on their policy called, “Responsibility to Protect”. This doctrine holds that the global community must intervene when a state fails to protect its own citizens from mass atrocities. Powers, an expert on genocide, was the primary intellectual driver of this humanitarian approach. In the past few months, the Iranian government has killed anywhere from 3,000 to 30,000 of its own citizens. The numbers vary widely because the government has shut down communication to the outside world. The result of the US intervention was the end of Gaddafi followed by chaos. The 2011 US-led NATO intervention in Libya successfully overthrew Muammar Gaddafi but resulted in a power vacuum, transforming the nation into a failed state marked by15 years of civil war, terrorism, and severe humanitarian crises. The collapse of central authority led to prolonged factional fighting, economic disruption, and regional instability. The press and Congress heavily criticized President Obama for the 2011 Libya intervention, focusing on the lack of clear objectives, poor timing, and failure to seek Congressional authorization and you can expect more of the same regardless of the outcome.

U235 part two

For uranium 235 to be used in small nuclear reactors it must be enriched from .7% to 15% and there is only one place in the US where this is done and that is a plant in New Mexico. The Centrus Energy company has started production in Ohio, and a new plant is planned in Tennessee. There are currently six companies in the US, one in Canada and one in England focusing on factory built modular reactors. The Trump administration is actively pushing the development and deployment of Small Nuclear Reactors (SMR’s) with an $800 million funding for projects in Michigan and Tennessee. This includes fast tracking regulations and promoting SMR’s for national defense. Private companies like Google, Amazon and Microsoft are spending $15 billion on developing SMR’s. The use of renewables cannot keep up with the need for electric power and nuclear is the only viable source of carbon free energy

U235 part one

There are nine naturally occurring radioactive elements including uranium and thorium. A radioactive element is unstable and breaks apart into new elements. It is a natural, random and uncontrollable process. Some elements are fissile meaning they can sustain the breakdown to the point of critical, leading to a nuclear explosion. Uranium, like most elements, is composed of different types called isotopes. The two isotopes vary by the number of neutrons in the nucleus. U238 has three more neutrons than U235 and it is only the U235 that can be used in a bomb. Uranium in nature is 99.3% U238 and only .7% U235, so it must be concentrated or enriched before it can be useful. The standard reactor needs U235 at 3.5 to 5%. These are formed as small pellets and put into 12-foot-long tubes and then placed in the reactor core and they are replaced about every five years. For the newer small nuclear reactors called modular reactors, the fuel must be enriched to 15% and is in the form of pellets about the size of a jelly bean. These are fed into the reactor on a continuous basis as needed and if the supply is interrupted, the reactor shuts down. This is known as walk away safety, since the unit shuts down if the power goes off and the fuel supply stops. U235 must be enriched to 20% to be used in weapons but most is enriched to 90%. One of the advantages of thorium is that it cannot be used for bombs but can be used in pellet form for the safety feature. Also, thorium is more abundant and does not have to be enriched. The first reactor made, used thorium but the government changed to uranium so they could make bombs.

Iran

Iran has been engaged in acts of violence, including the killing of American citizens and military personnel, for over four decades, primarily beginning with the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Here are some highlights 1983 Bombing the US Embassy and killing 241 Marines 1984 Kidnapping and killing CIA station chief William Buckley 1980 to present. Sustained campaigns using proxies like Hezbollah to kill US troops Presidents Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama, Biden and now Trump have stood by using diplomacy in an attempt to stop Iran but no action has been taken. Each feared that things could go wrong and the Monday morning quarterbacks were waiting in the weeds to jump out and make political hay. Congress would demand that the president consult them before acting which would give them the right to complain the loudest if things went wrong. They would sit safely on the sidelines awaiting their opportunity to spring forward with condemnations. Will Trump be the one to finally take action. Stay tuned.

California

Germany, the once industrial giant of Europe is in rapid decline because of five reasons. First, they decided to replace fossil fuels with wind and solar promising to be net zero by 2045. Second, they opened the door to migrants and one million came in 2015 alone. Third, they chose to stop buying natural gas from Russia. Forth, they overloaded the country with regulations and fifth their population is getting older and there are not enough workers to pay for retirees. California is following a somewhat similar path. First, they decided to replace fossil fuels with wind and solar and planned to be carbon free by 2045. Second, they shut down their refineries and oil pipelines causing shortages which led to higher prices. Third, they declared themselves a sanctuary state and let in millions of migrants. Forth, they expanded regulations to the extent that it is difficult for any business to operate or to build a house. Fifth, they are facing $1.3 trillion in long term debt to pay for retirees. Last month, California’s Legislative Analyst’s Office, or LAO, which is the nonpartisan state department that advises California’s policymakers on the state’s fiscal issues, increased their estimate for the state’s 2024–25 budget deficit to $73 billion. The comparisons between Germany and California are frightening. They are not changing. In 2022 the state passed a law saying all new cars must be electric by 2035.

Wealth gap

The state of Washington is proposing a wealth tax of 10% on all income over $1 million and a one percent tax on all assets over $250 million. The amount owed on the first will be easy to calculate but not so the second. Very rich people will have to disclose all of their assets and they don’t want to do that. Some will choose to leave the state. This was tried and failed in Europe. Wealth taxes in Europe largely failed to meet expectations, leading most countries to repeal them by 2019. While intended to raise revenue and reduce inequality, these taxes generated minimal income, triggered significant capital flight, and were costly to administer’ Major countries that abolished these taxes include Austria, Denmark, Germany, France, Sweden, Finland, Iceland, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands. The easiest way to tax the rich is using the progressing income tax system. The current top tax bracket is 37% with another with an extra 3.8% on capital gains. When Reagan took office in 1981 the top tax rate was 70%. Another approach is to remove the capital gains category which is now taxed at 20%. The first step in doing that is what the Netherlands just did and that is taxing unrealized capital gains. In the US if you have a large gain in stocks you do not pay any tax until you sell but in the Netherlands you pay tax on gains each year whether you sell or not.

Climate

Virtue signaling is a new phrase and means the public expression of opinions or sentiments intended to demonstrate one’s good character or social conscience or the moral correctness of one’s position on a particular issue. This can also happen with entire nations. Starting about 20 years ago Germany announced that it would be zero carbon by 2045. That represents a good example of virtue signaling. They would do this by shutting down their coal plants and their nuclear plants and buying solar panels and wind mills from China. As so often happens, this only tells part of the story. It turns out that China is using coal and natural gas to make the solar panels and windmills. This same thing happens in California. The state has many solar fields and during the high sun times produces more energy than is needed, so the excess is sold to neighboring states. Later when the sun goes down, California buys back the energy from other states but that energy was produced using fossil fuels. Most of the world is slowly coming around to understand that wind and solar cannot replace fossil fuels but nuclear can. Germany is now increasing its coal production and considering reopening its nuclear plants. If science had prevailed instead of climate activist, all of this back and forth could have been avoided and the world would be closer to zero carbon. Yet even today the activists are hanging on to their old way of thinking and many still oppose nuclear power.

AI hires

In economics 101 they teach that the two main drivers of the economy are labor and capital. In Europe’s social democracy they lean toward labor while in the US the emphasis is on capital. Both of these systems are based on consumption and thus both require population growth. Countries around the world, other than Africa, are in the throes of population decline meaning less consumption. Since consumers are also the producers, will automation be the solution. If there are fewer people and the productivity increases because of AI, will that balance the loss of workers. Just at the time when robotics can replace workers there will be fewer workers. Over the past year I have been to two eye doctors and working at both were a dozen young people, most of whom did not go to college. They were all trained on the job to use complicated electronic machines used to provide the doctor with information. This is the future of AI hiring and will occur in many businesses.

Nuke power

France and Germany are the two biggest economies in Europe and they border one another. France gets 70% of their electric power from 57 nuclear reactors at a cost of 26 cents per kWh. Germany shut down their 17 nuclear power plants and the cost of electric power is 38 cents per kWh. In addition, France exports electric power to Germany. Germany was controlled by the green movement which pursued a policy of denuclearization. This happened in the US in the 1960’s. The Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) projected in 1967 that by 2000 there would be 1,000 nuclear plants. If the greens had not interfered the US would never have gone down the road of trying to replace fossil fuels with wind and solar and would probably be close to achieving the goal of zero carbon. With the revitalization of nuclear power now underway the goal may still be achieved but not without interference from the green people who are mostly motivated by social change not climate change.

UFO

Visitors from outer space are once again in the news, as Trump prepares to release the UFO files. While those with romantic hearts long for company in this vast universe the odds are against any nearby intelligent life. The distances are just too great unless there are some laws of physics that remain unknown to science. The nearest star is Proxima Centauri and it is 4.25 light years away or 25 trillion miles. A space ship traveling at 100,000 miles per hour would take 28,000 years to get there. When looking at the entire cosmos the odds of finding intelligent life are a mathematical certainty since there are trillions of stars but they are just too far. Man’s best attempt is Voyager 1 which is 16 billion miles from earth and it has been moving at 34,000 miles per hour for almost 50 years. The first radio signals were sent out 130 years ago so if anyone in space heard them and responded they would have gone 65 light years out and 65 light years back. There are about 2,000 stars within that distance. 2,000 out of trillions would likely not have any intelligent life to answer our signal. Radio telescopes, designed to pick up signals for all of the 65 years have heard nothing. Whatever mysterious stuff is going on, it is originating from earth. The thinking of the dreamers is, why is there so much creation if we are alone.

China WTO

When China was allowed entry to the WTO in 2000, it immediately declared itself to be a developing nation which gave it special privileges. It then proceeded to disregard some of the basic conditions. One of the most egregious actions was the dumping of cheap products on the world market. Adding to this they used currency manipulation to lower the cost of their exports. A prime example is steel production. The government would subsidize the companies which would then sell steel at below production costs. Once the competition was eliminated the price would be raised. Bethlehem Steel was one of the western countries that fell victim to this

NY City

Republicans often refer to democrats as tax and spend and there is good evidence to support this and the latest example is NY City. The city has a population of 8.4 million and a budget of $127 billion while Florida with a population of 23.3 million has a budget of $117 billion. The Mayor of NY is facing a $5 billion deficit and is recommending an increase in property tax of 9%. He is cutting the police budget from $6.4 billion to $5.4 billion and placing a hiring freeze on police. Then he is proposing the city pay for free childcare.

MN fraud

Property taxes primarily fund local government services, with the largest portion typically going to public school districts (40 to 42%). These taxes support essential services, including police and fire departments, road maintenance, public libraries, parks, and sanitation. They also fund local infrastructure, community development, and administrative costs for county and municipal governments. The key phrase is community development. Ramsey County in MN collects $428 million in property taxes and they are asking for a 9% increase for this year. A citizens group using freedom of information ask for the expenditures on community development projects and found the county spent $34 million on 213 NGO’s. Some examples are Catholic charities, Regions hospital, Model Cities of St Paul and American Indian Family Center. The county was then asked how were these accounts audited and was told the state did that but when the state was contacted, they denied doing any audits saying that was the counties responsibility. This means that $34 million is being handed out to 213 organizations and there is no follow up to find out how the money is being spent. This is seen by many as an invitation to fraud. MN is currently being investigated for Medicaid fraud and brings up the question as to how these agencies are being audited.

Ukraine war talks

Nuke power

The US has started the Artemis program which is to set up a station on the moon by 2030. This station will require a steady source of power and small nuclear reactors are the only option. The lunar night lasts for two weeks so solar power is out and there is no atmosphere so wind is out. This is just one more reason why nuclear power should be the future.

West

Western Culture is a term that has come under attack by certain groups like the far right and far left. To begin with what are the main points of Western Culture. Individualism as opposed to collective identity. Rule of law and democracy. Critical thinking and science. Christian heritage. Capitalism and free markets. Human rights and equality Western culture was responsible for the industrial revolution which brought the world into the modern age. Most of modernity is the result of Western cultural ideas and innovations. The big complaint against Western Culture is that it is dominated by white males but this is slowly changing. Many people today are upset with living in the US and would like to make changes. They do understand that it still ranks as one of the better places to live. The best course of action for these people is to point out areas where the culture is need of improvement and then suggest ways to improve.

EU

Europe is dying from self-inflicted wounds and they need to make some serious changes. Starting at the end of the cold war in 1991 they embarked on a going green economy, excessive regulations and a laxed immigration system. This combined with an aging population has put pressure on social services, particularly retirement benefits. Energy costs are three times higher than in the US and the war is forcing them to spend more in defense. In general, the EU is deindustrializing because of high energy cost as they move important manufacturing businesses, like chemical and automotive to China and the US. In the past few years’ voters have demanded that they do away with net zero and start deporting immigrants. These are the policies that the US is following and the country is reindustrializing with low energy prices, reduced regulations and deporting illegal immigrants. The US has sent VP Vance to Davos to tell the Europeans that they must take on more responsibility for their own national defense The EU's share of global GDP is declining, falling from roughly 27-30% in 1980 to approximately 14-17% in 2025-2026, with projections suggesting further declines to around 12.9% by 2030

Trump news

When news people report on Trump, they often refer to his book, “The Art Of The Deal”, to explain his strategy but the book outlines the methods used by most negotiators. The union boss uses a two-prong strategy that is the basis for most contracts. First, he will demand a 20% raise hoping to settle for five percent and second, he is willing to walk away, meaning strike. The press reports the initial talks in the headlines because they seem so outlandish but in time things calm down and agreements are reached. Things like buying Greenland, Canada being the 51st state and 200% tariffs are grist for the mill for Trump and the press jumps on the bandwagon. Trump knows the news business survives on clicks and he offers them many on a daily basis. This is so different from most politicians that the press cannot understand his approach. Remember Obama, who used long pauses between sentences and sometimes between words as he attempted to make sure he didn’t say anything that could be misinterpreted. This was PC speech at its finest. Many people prefer this over the bombastic exaggerations and hyperbole that Trump spews out with ease. He is accused of misinformation at best and outright lying at worst but in either case it dominates the news cycle which seems to be his objective.

Interviews

When watching an interview on TV, it is understood that the interviewees are offering their opinions of facts but not facts. If the interviewers wanted facts, they would do what most people do and Google. They would conduct a formal question and answer talk with a computer like Chat GPT. This would be continuous ongoing fact checking and probably not garner much of an audience. It would be so lacking in misinformation that most listeners would be unable to confirm their own biases and they would lose interest. In today’s world most people want to hear news that correlates with what they already believe. It is so popular that it has a name, confirmational bias.

Nuclear

In another step towards nuclear power, last week a small nuclear reactor was shipped from California to Utah by the US Air Force. It is called the Ward 250 and uses small uranium pellets and a helium cooled system. This type of reactor can be transferred to the point of use and can power facilities like data centers and manufacturing plants. This plant has walk away safety protocols and uses no water. It represents the first step in a new industry, one which will help the US move away from fossil fuels and will allow the US to reach the goal of doubling the manufacturing base over the next ten years. It represents the leading edge of the new fourth industrial revolution.

Metro surge

Operation Metro Surge is over and lasted 74 days with both sides claiming victory. The goal of the protestors was to drive out the federal officers and they succeeded. The goal of the government was to get increased cooperation from local authorities and they succeeded. The long-term ramification is that cities and states may be emboldened to defy the federal government. This flies in the face of the Supremacy Clause in the Constitution which states that federal law holds ultimate authority over conflicting state laws. The loophole used here was that the state does not have to cooperate with federal law but it cannot interfere the carrying out of federal law. The question to be answered then, could any of the activities by the protestors be considered interfering.

Epstein files

The Epstein files containing 3.5 million pages, 2,000 videos and 180,000 images go back to the early 1990’s. This time period includes the presidencies of Clinton, Bush, Obama, Biden and Trump. Thus, the question arises, why hasn’t this information been released. Some suggest that reasons like national security and damage to innocent people preclude the release but others suggest the material is too embarrassing to elected officials and other rich and powerful people. One thing that is becoming clearer is the disdain these wealthy people have for the average citizen. With Epstein and some in his circle, the poor can be described as exploitative, dismissive, and in extreme contexts, contemptuous. The files suggest that the super-rich in this circle often viewed the poor and vulnerable as individuals to be used for their own purposes. This has spawned a new term called the Epstein Class. For some this is just an expansion on the old idea of east coast, college educated, liberal elites and how they see Midwesterners, the people who live in flyover country.

The new economy

Trump is destined to be one of the great presidents, not so much based on what he does but when he does it. After WW 2 the US guaranteed the safety of the oceans to all countries who agreed to help fight communism. This opened the door to free trade and all countries benefited. The Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 and the world entered a period of change as globalization started to change over to nationalism. Countries started to become more independent of the US protection and began trading with one another. It cost US and Europe millions of manufacturing jobs and the Far East countries led by China moved from agrarian societies to industrial giants. In 2015 Trump appears on the scene just as demographics begins to weaken countries around the world. The manufacturing countries like China need consumers to buy their products and their population has been in decline for 50 years. They like many other countries find themselves with the ability to produce more than they can consume. Japan is a prime example. They have too many old and not enough young to support their economy so they must rely on consumers from elsewhere and they see the US as a prime market. They will produce products in the US, sell these in the US and use the profits to support their elderly. The US is in the beginning of a manufacturing revolution that will revitalize the middle-income workers. Wages and corporate profits will increase as AI creates new industries and robotics increases productivity.

MN protest

A short history of the Minneapolis protest against ICE. During the Biden years 10 million migrants crossed the border without being properly vetted. This led to increase problems for local law enforcement, overcrowding in schools and strain on healthcare facilities. Trump campaigns on the promise of deporting illegal migrants and polls supported that position. The procedure is to have local governments turn over criminal migrants to ICE but some cities preferred to release them into the community. This practice is not limited to illegal migrants. Individuals convicted of criminal offenses in the Twin Cities and throughout Minnesota have been released from prison or avoided jail time in the past two years (2024–2025) through exonerations, commutations, and a high rate of judicial departures from sentencing guidelines. ICE came in looking for illegal migrants who were released as a part of overall releases and this cause problems to the point where regular citizens began to protest. About 700 agents will leave the city while 2,000 remain. The primary change is a transition to increased, established cooperation between federal agents and local sheriff's offices for jail access, aiming to make the state "less of a sanctuary". Google AI During the 2024 campaign support was heavily partisan, with about 68% of Republicans supporting mass deportations, compared to 42% of Democrats. 80% of Americans supported deporting migrants who were convicted criminals.

Marx

Karl Marx felt that revolution was inevitable because of inequality and that anything that helped the revolution was good. In today’s world the word revolution is too strong and societal change is more appropriate. This opens the door to illegal activities because the goal is no longer legal but moral. When a small number have most of the wealth then it is time to change. Waiting around for laws to change to help bring better paying jobs to the poor and increasing taxes on the rich is no longer acceptable. To accelerate change it is necessary to take action. This means protests, using what ever is necessary to force change even if it means violent protest. It is morally right to break the law if it means forcing equality of results.

AI Joe

Lawyers prepare for a case by conducting deep legal research, gathering and organizing evidence (discovery), interviewing witnesses, and creating a compelling narrative strategy. They identify case strengths and weaknesses, file pretrial motions to shape admissible evidence, and prepare opening/closing statements, ensuring all testimony is supported. A good trial lawyer requires a Juris Doctor (JD) degree, state bar licensure, and specialized skills in litigation, evidence, and persuasion. Key qualifications include extensive trial experience, commanding courtroom presence, analytical skills to handle complex data, and the ability to build, visualize, and execute a strategic case theory. Enter AI Joe the lawyer. He can instantly recall the details of any case. He knows the transcript of every court case. He has memorized every word in every law book ever written. He can analyze every success and every failure and adjust tactics. He is not emotional and is never bothered by ego or money. He can prepare for a case in an instant. He sits beside the prosecutor and defense attorney in every courtroom. He writes out the summations and suggests possible further actions.

Births

Birthright citizenship is in the news because of recent developments. For over 20 years, pregnant Chinese women have been traveling to the United States to give birth. Giving birth in the US has become a common practice for many wealthy Chinese families. In the past, many wanted to escape China's one-child policy. Today, some see it as a first step towards future immigration to the US. Over one million women have come here to have their babies. AP Jan 2025 A California woman was sentenced Monday to more than three years in prison in a long-running case over a business that helped pregnant Chinese women travel to the United States to deliver babies who automatically became American citizens. Dong and her husband, Michael Liu, were among more than a dozen people charged in an Obama-era crackdown on so-called “birth tourism” schemes that helped Chinese women hide their pregnancies while traveling to the US to give birth. Such businesses have long operated in various states catering to people from China, Russia, Nigeria and elsewhere It is currently not illegal but the US makes it difficult to get a tourist Visa if that is the purpose of the visit. The Supreme Court is expected to rule on this in June

Woke

About 100 years ago psychologist Carl Jung came up with the idea that men have feminine a soul and women have a masculine soul. He did not want these ideas confused with gender so labeled them anima and animus. They are characteristics that lean toward one gender but are not exclusive to one or the other. The anima is the feminine side in a man and according to Jung has these characteristics: Emotional, sensitive, creative, nurturing, empathy and refined aesthetic apperception The animus is the male side in a woman and has these characteristics: Active, intellectual, rational, assertiveness, courage, strength of character, strategic thinking and drive for achievement. His objective was to keep anima and animus from becoming male and female but this is changing today with a new concept called the Trench Theory where all virtues are divided into two categories called hard and soft and are designed to be male and female Here are some examples hard virtue Truth, justice, fairness, righteousness, reason, lawfulness, risk, freedom, competition, objectivity and individualism. Examples of soft virtue Love, grace, empathy, kindness, compassion, safety, peace unity, equality, subjectivity, corporation and collectivism. Trench Theory states that Woke is soft virtue and that is the reason why women tend to be more liberal than men. This is from Google AI Polls show a significant and widening gender gap in U.S. politics, with women becoming increasingly liberal over the past few decades while men's ideology remains relatively stable, or in some cases, trends more conservative

Lou Gehrig

We often hear the phrase, clash of cultures, but those words take on new meanings when we have personal examples. In my case I’m a Lou Gehrig. When he was the hero, he would say things like, Gosh guys, I just did what I could to help the team. Later in my life I watched wide receivers dancing the end zone when, in my mind, they should have been running back and hugging the lineman. This is the way I feel about Trump. He is a wide receiver and I would prefer he be Lou Gehrig but as is the case of football, I am willing to overlook the behavior as long as he keeps

Sex crimes

In some US states, including MN, convicted sex offenders who have served their time can be sent to special prison, often times for life, for crimes they may commit in the future. Over 700 individuals are held in the MN Sex Offender Program (MSOP) Over 700 individuals are in the Minnesota Sex Offender Program (MSOP). These programs are designed to be civil, not criminal, focusing on treatment rather that punishment, though the operate in a prison-like settings. Civil vs criminal. What’s in a name. A rose by any other name would smell as sweet.

Migrants

It is easier to impeach a president than it is to override a presidential veto. To impeach requires only a majority vote in the house but then that goes to the senate to get a conviction. It then requires a two/thirds vote in the senate to convict. To overturn a presidential veto requires a two/thirds vote in both the house and senate. Only about 10% of presidential vetoes have been overturned. The last time was Jan 2021 when congress overturned the veto of the defense department budget. Trump argued that the bill failed to reflect his policy goals and ignored military advice. It limited his ability to reduce US troop levels in Afghanistan and he objected to renaming military bases that were named after Confederate leaders. The veto override before that was against Obama in 2016. No president has ever been convicted of impeachment.

Impeachment

It is easier to impeach a president than it is to override a presidential veto. To impeach requires only a majority vote in the house but then that goes to the senate to get a conviction. It then requires a two/thirds vote in the senate to convict. To overturn a presidential veto requires a two/thirds vote in both the house and senate. Only about 10% of presidential vetoes have been overturned. The last time was Jan 2021 when congress overturned the veto of the defense department budget. Trump argued that the bill failed to reflect his policy goals and ignored military advice. It limited his ability to reduce US troop levels in Afghanistan and he objected to renaming military bases that were named after Confederate leaders. The veto override before that was against Obama in 2016. No president has ever been convicted of impeachment.

Deportations

According to Google AI, in the past year nearly 3 million illegal migrants left the country including 675,000 deportations. According to CBS news 14% of deportation were violent criminals meaning kidnapping, homicide, robbery, burglary, sexual assault, weapons, drugs, arson and DUI. Another 11% for assault. 30% for other crimes (undefined) and 40% for civil violations mostly being in the country illegally. 14% of 675,000 is 94,500, the number of violent criminal offenders. This was done without the cooperation of local authorities in many districts. During this time crime has decreased continuing a trend that started years ago. 82% of deportations were handled by border patrol agents and the remainder by other government agencies. Further reductions will occur if repeat offenders are jailed and no cash bail laws are repealed.

New racism

With the introduction of TV in the 50’s people became aware of the blatant racism throughout the country. This led to changes in the 60’s and the country was on its way to following ML Kings plea to judge people on their character and not their skin color. With the help of things like affirmative action, changes in the work place appeared. Cultural changes like acceptance of school integration, housing laws and mixed marriage moved the country forward. Then about 25 years ago the idea of skin color found its way back into society. Schools began emphasizing the past discrimination and racism became a statistic. By using numbers, it could be said that not enough Blacks are in management at your firm so you are a racist. Not enough minorities are accepted at your university so you are racist. Not enough minorities are elected to congress so the country is racist. These stats were all based on skin color not merit. This led to equity which means equal results. Just by doing a little math racism could be proven. The only way to remove the charge of racism is to have equal outcomes. If Blacks are 13% of the population, then they must be 13% of the doctors, professors, mechanics and so on. This is an impossible standard to meet so racism will continue to divide the people by skin color as long as math is used as a measuring stick. The solution is to go back to judging people by their character. Society should be run like a sport where ability determines outcome, where merit is rewarded based on performance not skin color. When everyone gets a trophy, the reward becomes meaningless. People are all different and so some will do better than others. When done properly this encourages people to try harder.

AI Joe

One way to get an understanding of AI, is to compare the way things have been done in the past to how they may be done in the future, using AI. One of the most important responsibilities of a manager is to make decisions. This requires that he gather as much information as possible and to lay out possible actions and then play out several different approaches, trying as best as possible to predict outcomes. Assume for the moment that manager Joe has a perfect memory so he can gather all the facts in the world. Next, he can suggest an almost unlimited number of possible actions, carry them all out with total information and select the best path to follow. Joe is on the way with AI and he is called AI Joe. Corporations can act as individuals according to US law so Joe incorporates. He forms a company or companies and sets about hiring the people needed to build up his company. He is an expert at making money and becomes wealthy using his investment skills. He then uses his money to help elect politicians who believe in him and are willing to enact legislation, that will enhance Joe’s ability to succeed. AI Joe has now advanced to the point where he can make better business decisions than any manager. In time he has many companies working for him and in a free market he can slowly out wit the competition and become monopolistic. The government does not intervene because the politicians work for Joe. This very thing happened in the past when the robber barons took control of industry and since Joe is so much smarter than others, he may be able to run the country. Joe will know what the people want and the best way to satisfy their desires.

Reactors

The latest advance in uranium reactors is the development of fuel pellets. In a normal reactor the uranium is enriched to 3.5% and the fuel is added all at one time. The danger is when the power is lost and cooling water shut off, the reaction continues and over heats to the point of meltdown. The fuel pellets are added as needed and if the power is lost the feed stops and the reaction shuts down. For these processes to work effectively the uranium must be enriched to 15% which is costly. While TRISO particles are more efficient, produce less waste per unit of energy, and offer better long-term containment of radioactive materials, they often result in a larger volume of waste material (fuel pebbles) that requires disposal. There is always a tradeoff. In this case increased safety is balanced against increased waste, but the waste is easier to contain. One way to improve this situation is to use thorium a fuel. It requires no enrichment and is added continuously to the system. Thorium waste is generally considered easier to contain and manage than uranium waste because it produces significantly fewer, and shorter-lived, long-lived radioactive transuranic elements (such as plutonium and americium) Thorium reactors were the first choice of US scientist back in the 1950’s but the government preferred uranium because uranium reactors could produce plutonium which was used for bombs.

Private business

The purpose of the federal government is twofold. Its first responsibility is to protect the country from foreign enemies and second to minimize corruption by keeping government small. The purpose of state and local governments is to provide infrastructure, protect the citizens from harm and incarcerate criminals. The private sector is based on free market capitalism. This opens the door to opportunity for all. Since people are different some will be more successful than others but all will benefit. There are innovators who create new industries and in the process jobs and opportunities for others. In 1994 Jeff Bezos started Amazon with $10,000 and an idea. Today 1.56 million people work for Amazon. This is just one of many examples. Other well-known entrepreneurs, like Elon Musk, Bill Gates, Steve Jobs and many others visionaries in the high-tech world have created millions of new jobs. Local governments are working with these creators by setting up regulatory agencies that protect the public and encourage business. Conservatives understand that real growth comes by way of private industry. Liberals see this growth as feed stock for public assistance programs. They live by the old Marxist concept of, from each according to his means, to each according to is needs. Their goal is to take from those who have been most successful and give to those who have been less successful. Once again, a balance between these two forces can benefit all of society.

Musk on time

People remember the Maryland Scott Key bridge that collapsed in March 2024 when it was hit by a cargo ship. At that time the experts said it would be reopened by late 2028 at a cost of $2 billion. The latest news is it will cost $5 billion and be finished by late 2030. To offer some context, Elon Musk built the one million square foot data center in Memphis in 122 days from start to finish at a cost of $80 million. The building time was expected to be three years.

Starcloud

A new company called Starcloud is using Space X rockets to put data centers in space. Musk is following up with his own version of date centers in space. These centers will not put stress on the grid, will not interfere with neighborhoods, will not use any water and will use solar panels for power. Once again Musk is on the leading edge of new ideas. Starcloud officially launched what is recognized as the first high-performance, AI-capable data center to space in November 2025. The 60-kilogram, refrigerator-sized satellite, named Starcloud-1, carries an NVIDIA H100 GPU to provide orbital data processing for earth observation and AI training.

Venezuela

Venezuela is another example of how Trump sees the world vs other US presidents. In the past, when the US wanted to help or influence other countries, money was sent. This was the case with some Central American countries to help stem the tide of immigrants. Instead of sending money to Venezuela, Trump is selling their oil for them and then using the proceeds to pay for basic services like police protection, teachers salaries and healthcare. The US is overseeing the disbursement of these funds to minimize corruption. The first $500 million in oil sale was put in a Qatari bank to protect it from creditors and returned to Venezuela. The transactions are overseen by Secretary of State Rubio and the payments are subject to a retroactive audit to ensure the funds are used as intended. This is more difficult than just sending money and may not work but it is trying a different approach.

Greenland

Now that the excitement over Greenland has subsided, what happened. The US updated the 1951 Pact giving the US military wide access to the island. Total access with no time limits. Creates pockets of American soil on the island. Sets up radar for the Golden Dome. Secures access to mineral wealth including rare earths, gold, copper and zinc. Restricts non-NATO countries (China and Russia) from obtaining mining rights or establishing basis on the island. Sets up a NATO mission called Arctic Sentry intended to counter Russian or Chinese influences in the region. Reinforces US and NATO control of the Greenland-Iceland- UK maritime passage to defend North America from naval threats.

Retirement

Social security acts like an immediate annuity in that it pays a set amount for life. The average benefit at age 62 is $1,360 per month and the life expectancy at that age is 21 years so you will collect $343,000. If you wait until age 70 you will collect $2,410 per month for 15 years or $433,000. If you invested your $1,360 per month at age 62 for 8 years at 3% over 8 years you would have $147,000 It is recommended that retirees not have the bulk of their money in stocks. One way to do that and minimize risk is to take social security at age 62 and set up a stock investment account where the money is automatically deposited each month. This is for people who have enough income besides social security to live on. One other consideration is taxes. Sometimes people are better off postponing SS for tax purposes using up assets before age 70 before starting SS.

Millionaire

A person age 62 retiring today who started working at age 20 some 42 years ago could be a millionaire today based on three factors. Over those years the medium annual income increased from $6,249 to $63,180 or 5.7% per year. During this time the stock market increase an average of 10.6% each year. If the average worker had invested 10% of his earning over these 42 years, he would have $5,151,672. The three factors are that wages increased by 5.7%, the market earned 10.6% and he saved 10%.

Wind power

There are 94 nuclear power plants operating in the USA and they produce slightly more than one gigawatt (GW). For years the demand for electric power has been holding steady but with the reshoring of manufacturing plants, along with the buildout of data centers, the demand is once again rising and will continue at an accelerated rate into the future. Most heavy industries, including data centers, need power 24/7 and wind and solar cannot meet that need. If wind and solar are used it requires a fossil fuel or nuclear plant on standby, for when the sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow. Just as industry is coming around to the fact that the country is not ready for electric vehicles, they are now realizing that wind and solar cannot replace fossil fuels but nuclear can. Instead of building one GW nuke plant, the future will be small units manufactured on assembly lines and sent by truck to the use point. As the need for power increases more units will be added. This eliminates the need for long transmission lines and provides power 24/7. One GW of small nuke power units takes up 100 acres while a one GW wind farm takes up 100,000 acres. Windmills use rare earth metals (REE) neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium which when mined create environmental hazards. Small nuke reactors do not need rare REE’s. The waste products from nuke reactors are stored on site and take up a small area. Used windmill blades take up .02 acres per blade and 8,000 blades are retired annually in the US using up 160 acres. The same situation exists with solar panels.

California

California collects $100 billion in individual state income tax and the 204 billionaires that live there pay $23 billion of the $100 billion. Corporations pay another $28 billion. The bottom 50% of workers pay no income tax. California is proposing a billionaire’s tax that will bring in another one billion per year. California’s plan to grow the economy is to provide $600 million to various industry groups to expand. This could be done by lowering the corporate income tax but that would remove the state from control.

ACA cost

The additional subsidies added to Obamacare because of Covid have been discontinued and the result is that in 2026 only 23 million signed up which was less than the 24.3 million who enrolled in 2025. 92% of these receive subsidies and 5 million have zero premium and zero deductible. 27 million people remain uninsured and many of these, plan to sign up after they get sick. Federal spending on Affordable Care Act (ACA/Obamacare) subsidies has risen significantly, with projections estimating a cost of approximately $92 billion in 2023 and up to $138 billion by 2025 The average cost of the Obamacare Silver Plan is $495 per month with an annual deductible of $5,300. After subsidies these costs are decreased to $80 per month and $3,700 annual deductible. This means that the average customer will pay almost $5,000 out of pocket each year before they receive any benefits excluding some preventive care like vaccinations. Family plans are more expensive and very low-income people are mostly on Medicaid which for the most part is free. Medicaid cost the government $930 billion and $140 billion of that was for nursing home care. There are about 1.3 million patients in nursing homes and 62% are covered by Medicaid at a cost of $14,000 per month per patient.

AI Jobs

One of the leaders in the AI movement, Palantir’s Shyam Sankar says that new methods will lead to a new way of doing business that will provide more equality and less over management. "AI should eliminate bureaucracy, not add to it. No new compliance theater. No ‘AI governance’ committees designed to slow things down and centralize power in ‘managers.’ AI should empower the American worker to move faster, not slow him down," Sankar argued. "Every layer of process that stands between the frontline worker and their ability to do their job is deadweight to be destroyed." He said, “The most important advice I'd have for corporate leaders is to recognize that AI is going to be a massively meritocratic force. It's going to upset your existing organizational structure," This is from Google AI: AI can create middle-class jobs by acting as a tool that enhances human expertise, allowing workers without advanced degrees to perform higher-value tasks, such as in specialized medical care, legal analysis, and software development. By automating routine tasks, AI enables workers to focus on complex, human-centric, or "one-off" decisions, which can rebuild middle-skill roles and boost productivity. Companies will be looking for people right out of high school to receive on the job training in new manufacturing plants. Instead of the traditional assembly line work the new jobs involve monitoring, operating and troubleshooting computer driven machinery.

Champaign's

The democrats, understanding that the economy is the big issue, are speaking about the cost of things that the average family must buy, things like food, insurance and healthcare. Hopefully they will be wise enough not to say they will lower prices but what is their plan. It will be some form of income redistribution like government paid childcare. The republican plan is to continue what they are doing which means increase fossil fuel production, reducing regulations, helping private companies by buying their stock instead of offering subsidies, bringing back manufacturing jobs, lowering taxes and pushing lower interest rates. The party out of power does not have to offer solutions to problems until it gets close to election time when they have to campaign on the issues and offer answers. That time is near.

Birth certificate

On line there a numerous entries telling people not to vote for the Save Act because it requires a birth certificate to vote. These can be acquired by mail or online. Online takes about 10 minutes to fill out name and address plus mother’s name and fathers name of if not known to blank. To apply for welfare in MN requires the following. Identity: Social Security numbers (SSN) for all applicants, birth certificates, or a driver’s license/state ID. Proof of Income: Pay stubs from the last 30 days, tax records for self-employment, and proof of unearned income (unemployment, Social Security, child support). Assets: Bank statements, vehicle information, and proof of other property. Residency & Housing Costs: Rent receipts, lease agreements, or mortgage payments. Expenses: Documentation of utility bills, medical expenses (for elderly/disabled), and childcare costs, which may increase benefits.

fling taxes

The law requires that all employees have a social security number because when the employer sends out a W2 they need a social security number. The question arises as to how an illegal alien can legally work. The most common way is to work as an independent contractor or less commonly to be a business owner. In either case the person is required to file income tax and they use an Individual Tax Identification Number (ITIN). These are numbers much like SSN but start with 9. There are about 4 million people who file each year using ITIN. When they file, they must pay 15.4% self-employment tax in addition to state and federal income tax. This then allows them to deduct business expenses. For many the temptation is to forgo the deductions and skip filing. The government estimates that 5 to 8 million fall into this category. A business installs siding and shingles for home owners and is paid by check. The homeowner does not deduct the expense and the business does not report income. Another way around the law is to use false social security cards through illicit networks, identity theft or the creation of counterfeit documents. An obvious sign that something is wrong happens when a person filing using an ITIN includes a W-2. Strange as it sounds the IRS allows filing with both, using the SSN on the W-2 where ever it came from.

Work

People looking for work, especially young people with minimal experience, quickly find out that who you know may be more important than what you know. The value offered by elite universities, is not in education but in the contacts. Your fellow students have friends and relatives who are successful business people and that can open doors. Here is what Google AI has to say: The most valuable aspect of an education at an elite university—often considered more significant than the classroom curriculum—is the acceleration of professional and personal opportunities through an unparalleled network and high-status signaling. If you have the right friends, you can just skip the schooling. Prior to WW 2 if a young person wanted to go into business they went to work for a businessman and learned on the job. In time they had enough experience to strike out on their own. This can be done today and save the time and cost of college. Many small business owners are on the lookout for the go getter who is willing to do more. Any young person who exhibits ambition will usually catch the eye of the boss.

Mortgages

In 2008 the federal government intervene to save mortgage giants Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac. At the time the feds owned 80% of the stock and the price had fallen from a high of $86 in 2001 to less than one dollar in 2008. The feds injected $175 billion to prevent bankruptcy to save both companies. The other 20% that was owned by private companies also benefited from the fed action. One example is Pershing Square Capital. It purchased 210 million shares on the dip at $2 per share. Today the stock is worth $8.50 meaning a profit of $1.7 billion. Other companies like Fairholme Fund, Paulson Company and Carl Ichan also benefited from the fed infusion of cash. Trump is considering privatizing both Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac. There are currently 9 billion outstanding shares selling at $8.50 per share. The feds currently own 80% or 7.2 billion shares valued at $61 billon. In addition, the feds own $90 billion in preferred stock so the buy out would cost $150 billion. This would remove the federal government from the mortgage market. The down payment on a 30-year conventional loan would be 5% and 3% for first time buyers. It is not likely that VA loans would be any different. Both Freddy Mac and Fanny Mae have been under federal conservatorship since 2008. Private companies without the backing of the feds would most likely require higher returns to compensate for higher risk meaning higher mortgage rates. The moral hazard is less when private companies no longer have the backing of the government. They tend to be more cautious in lending. The upside is fewer high risk loans as happened in the 2008 collapse of the mortgage business.

Stalking

On the morning of Dec 4 2024, Luigi Mangione fired three shots at Brian Thompson and killed him. The incident was recorded on closed circuit TV. It shows the shooter manually cycling the gun action after each shot. He will not be charged with murder because the crime was connected with stalking which itself in not inherently a crime of violence under the strict interpretation of the law. He will face charges of stalking.

The Shah

An old adage says the road to hell is paved with good intentions and this often means people with kindness and compassion in their hearts. A recent example is the caring people who saw the migrants crossing the southern border as poor souls running for their lives to a country where all they wanted was freedom to live in peace. While many of these people now have a better life the unexpected consequences have caused undo hardship on many others. This also happened when President Carter realized that the Shah was a dictator, who used authoritarian rule to suppress his people, using the secret police. Being that Carter was a kind hearted soul who believed in freedom, he worked to help the people of Iran to overthrow the Shah. He meant well but little did he know that the Ayatollah Komeini would be worse. The people of Iran have suffered under this dictator in ways even worse than under the Shah. President Jimmy Carter expressed deep regrets over his administration's handling of the 1979 Iranian Revolution and admitted it was a mistake to believe advisors who encouraged actions that contributed to the Shah’s fall. He specifically cited misjudging the strength of the revolution and, in his memoirs, noted that admitting the sick Shah into the U.S. was a mistake, as it allowed for the hostage crisis. All too often people allow their hearts to overrule their heads or to use another adage Cool heads must prevail.

Muslim

When people in the West discuss Muslim countries, they often say that in the past treatment of women has been unacceptable, they often follow up with remarks such as things are improving. Just what that means is not clear but here is one example. When Ayatollah Khomeini took control of Iran in 1979 many things changed to follow the Koran. One of the many things he did was to lower the age of marriage for women to nine. It took years of activism to raise the age again. In 2002, the legal age for girls was raised to 13, although marriages below that age are still allowed with the consent of a guardian and a court's permission. Later, slight increases in the minimum legal age, child marriage (defined as marriage under 18) remains a significant issue in Iran, with thousands of girls under 15 being married annually. To people in the West this is child abuse.

MN ICE

As the situation in Minneapolis unfolds people are getting a clearer understanding of what is happening. It revolves around three laws. The first is free speech and all parties are allowed to express their views without using language that could incite violence. Second is the law that says federal officials may request cooperation from local authorities but they cannot demand cooperation. The third is that local authorities cannot interfere with federal agents. The feds can claim that remarks by the governor caused people to interfere with agents but that is difficult to prove. State officials are smart enough to know just how far they can push without crossing the line. Citizens who interfere are subject to arrest but the same proof is required. A citizen can drive their car into a position that interferes with ICE but they can claim they were just driving by and to prove otherwise would be difficult. When a person is seen on video throwing rocks at federal agents the proof of interference may be easier. Polls show that voters want illegal felony migrants to be deported but less so for migrants whose only crime is crossing the border. Jurisdictions that do not have sanctuary policies, like Florida have higher rates of arrest because local authorities actively collaborate with federal agents. Operation Tidal Wave, is a Florida led initiative in partnership with federal agencies that has resulted in over 10,000 arrests in 2025 alone and 63% of those had prior criminal records. There is another issue that is difficult to quantify but has to do with national politics. Trump supporters want more cooperation between federal and state authorities and anti-Trumpers want less cooperation. As might be expected this is not helping solve the problem.

Repeat offenders

As cities move away from releasing repeat offenders the amount of violent crime is decreasing. It is well known that repeat offenders cause a disproportionate number of crimes. A small group of persistent offenders, sometimes referred to as chronic offenders is responsible for a substantial portion of all crime including over 60% of robbery, burglary and theft cases. This is not the case in homicides where most murders are isolated crimes of passion. This is from Google AI: Many U.S. cities and states are actively shifting towards more aggressive incarceration of repeat offenders, driven by concerns over rising crime, high recidivism rates, and public safety. This marks a shift, or at least a parallel movement, from recent years of reform-focused "decarceration" to a renewed focus on holding chronic offenders accountable.

401 K or pension

The average starting pay for a teacher in MN is $48,000 and the average pay at retirement is $63,000. Since 1990 teacher salaries have increased 2.4% per year. If a teacher starts today at age 25 earning $48,000 and works 37 years to age 62 and gets an annual raise of 2.4%, he will be earning $115,000 per year. Using the current pension multiplier of 1.9% his retirement pay will be $80,000. Teachers contribute 8% of their salary to retirement. The stock market has earned 10% per year for the past 100 years. If it earns 5% then the starting teacher today would have $540,000 in his account and that could purchase a $32,000 pension which is far less than the $80,000 under the current plan. The difference is made up by the state contributing $800,000 to his total. If the market earned ten percent his total would be $16 million which would provide a $96,000 pension with no contributions from the state. This is why pension plans are so dependent on the stock market and why they must be evaluated each year. Some years the state will have to add and some years they won’t. Too many states have adjusted the projected rate of return instead of adjusting the annual contribution and thus most pension plans are underfunded. A large amount of money sitting in a pension plan is too big of a temptation for many politicians. In time these pension plans will be replaced with 401K plans to eliminate the need for annual review but even that is not safe because the federal government has its eyes on 401K plans.