State of the Union

In today’s Washington politics, party is always more important than country and this is illustrated every year watching the state of the union speeches. If you guys are for it we are against it whatever it is. This year Trump offered proposals for paid family leave, lower drug prices, prison reform and infrastructure and the democrats sat silently with bored looks on their faces. In Obama’s first state of the union speech he offered the same ideas and the republicans sat silently looking bored. Many say that this is the reason that the American people are upset with congress as is seen in the 15% approval ratings. For many others, if it were not for the seriousness of the issues, it would be comical watching these people sitting there with their dead pan faces. While it is convenient to blame congress, never forget they were all put in office by we the people. Maybe we are living in glass houses and should be careful where we cast our stones.

Amazon insurance

I have been a careful observer of the health insurance industry for many years and today’s announcement of Amazon’s potential entry into the health care business is a possible game changer. They want to set up a plan that will cover the one million employees who work for Amazon, Berkshire –Hathaway and JP Morgan and then parley that into a national plan. No details were forthcoming but my guess is that it will offer high deductible plans with a company paid for health savings account. Simply put the company sets up a $10,000 annual family deductible plan and puts $10,000 into the health savings account of each family. Each family is then responsible for the first $10,000 of annual expenses due to health care and the plan pays for everything over that. Any money that is not spent accumulates year after year and any unused funds can be part of a tax deferred or perhaps a tax free retirement plan. People will spend these funds wisely and shop around for the best deal on medical care. Providers will be paid up front just like any business purchase and claims will only be filed when they exceed $10,000 and thus eliminating 90% of claims and therefore 90% of administrative cost. The only downside is the loss of many jobs in the insurance industry.

Hoover

In this day of rapid change it is hard to believe that J. Edgar Hoover led the FBI for 48 years and during that time he proved the old adage that power corrupts. He used his power to try and defeat Harry Truman and later to bring down other presidents like Kennedy. Richard Nixon was recorded in 1971 stating that one of the reasons he did not fire Hoover was that he was afraid of reprisals against him from Hoover.[6]President Truman said that Hoover transformed the FBI into his private secret police force: The Internet is awash with examples of Hoover’s misuse of power. Here is one quote: Later in life and after his death, Hoover became a controversial figure as evidence of his secretive abuses of power began to surface. He was found to have exceeded the jurisdiction of the FBI,[1] and to have used the FBI to harass political dissenters and activists, to amass secret files on political leaders,[2]and to collect evidence using illegal methods.[3]

EITC

It wasn’t until 1987 that the IRS began requiring social security numbers on claimed children. That was the day that an estimated 7 million children disappeared. People were claiming children they did not have to get the earned income tax credit (EITC). A single mom with two children earning $30,000 per year qualifies for $3,200 from the earned income tax credit. This was the average and if you multiply that by 3.5 million the cost of this type of fraud was over $10 billion dollars.

White vs color

Part of the new immigration proposal calls for merit based selection. This means that candidates will be judged on their education and abilities much like Canada does. Nancy Pelosi says that the new plan is designed to make America white again because it will put people from Mexico and Central America at the end of the line. What she fails to understand is that it will put people from Asia at the head of the line since they are the people with the skills needed in today’s world. MIT is considered the best tech school in the country and their enrollment is 30% Asian even though Asians are only 5% of the population. This could be considered showing favoritism toward non-whites. In the three high schools I go to there are placards on the wall showing the students who got a perfect score of 1,600 on the SAT test and they are mostly Asian-Americans.

Johnny

Today is the tenth anniversary of my son’s death. Time has helped to seal the wound but the scar remains. On days like this I recall happy events. We had gone down to Arkansas on a mini vacation Johnny and Varuni and Eunice and I. We purchased a lot from a young real estate guy and on the way home we couldn’t decide on his name. He was either Rod or Ron or Rob and we started laughing about it and it turned into a laughfest. I realize you had to be there but the point is that it was a happy trip. I have many memories like that and I enjoy reliving them.

Tom Steyer

The Koch Brothers are billionaires who make their money from the oil business and they are big donors to republicans. They are often in the news and most time not in a favorable light. Tom Steyer is a billionaire who often donates to democrats. Steyer like former presidential candidate Mitt Romney made his money as owner of a hedge fund called Farallon Capital. In 2012 he sold his business and retired as an environment activist. In October 2012, Steyer stepped down from his position at Farallon in order to focus on advocating for alternative energy.[14][15] Steyer decided to dispose of his carbon-polluting investments in 2012, although critics say he did not dispose of them fast enough, and noted that the lifespan of the facilities he funded would extend through 2030.[16] A 2015 New York Times article said coal-mining companies which Farallon invested in or lent money to under Steyer had increased their coal production by 70 million tons annually since receiving money from Farallon, and that Steyer was still invested in the Maules Creek coal mine.[ He also invested in enterprises that many liberals feel are suspect. In 2016, some critics noted that Farallon had also invested in private prisons while Steyer was leading the hedge fund.[17] According to SEC filings, Steyer was at the helm as the hedge fund purchased nearly $90 million of Corrections Corporation of America stock (5.5% of the company's outstanding shares His views of the world have changed since he retired as represented by his recent statement that he would no longer donate to democrats since the Schumer shutdown debacle.

Speak carefully

Trust in the federal government has been on the decline since the Viet Nam War and for the past 30 years has hovered about 25%. With all the investigations going on today the question about testifying under oath has taken on serious repercussions and I am reminded of a speech I attended at the University of North Dakota by famous lawyer F. Lee Bailey. His closing line was, just remember when you go to court whether you are innocent of guilty has nothing what so ever to do with the verdict. To further emphasis the point just google the right to remain silent and you will find many examples of how the words of innocent people were twisted and convicted them. That is why the Fifth Amendment gives us the right not to incriminate ourselves. Today some conservatives are criticizing the FBI and liberals are criticizing ICE. I say go for it.

Pentagon Papers

As the congress tries to release the documents related to the Steel dossier arguments arise on both sides of the issue and both sides of the isle. To reveal information before the government has an opportunity to review it, risks exposing covert methods and operatives. A similar situation arose during the Johnson/Nixon years when a government whistle blower Daniel Ellsberg released information about the Viet Nam War. He did so because he felt the government wanted to cover up the information and it would not otherwise be released. A 1996 article in The New York Times said that the Pentagon Papers had demonstrated, among other things, that the Johnson Administration systematically lied, not only to the public but also to Congress".[3] He was charged with espionage but later the charges were dismissed. For his disclosure of the Pentagon Papers, Ellsberg was initially charged with conspiracy, espionage, and theft of government property, but the charges were later dismissed after prosecutors investigating the Watergate Scandal discovered that the staff members in the Nixon White House had ordered the so-called White House Plumbers to engage in unlawful efforts to discredit Ellsberg.[5]

Political gap

Over the past decades political parties have moved to their extremes and many have found this to be advantageous. It allows them to get away with poor performance by blaming the other party. The democrats now find themselves in an awkward position because of Trump. He has said that he will not touch Medicare or social security. He seems not to care about budget deficits. He was for gay marriage before Obama was. His companies are staffed with high paid women and now he has proposed giving illegal aliens citizenship. Next he wants to spend much of the revenue from the tax cuts on infrastructure. The gulf between the parties is narrowing. Most of the complaints now center around Trump’s personality.

Immigrant children

One of the things that seems to bother most people is when someone cuts in line. Imagine standing in line for tickets to the big game or concert and someone cuts in front of you. Now watch even further as they invite their friends to cut in with them. Then imagine that they run out of tickets just before you get to the box office. This is the situation, for people who have gone through the proper channels to enter the country legally, then find out that others who have cut in are getting preferential treatment. They are upset and call their congressman only to find out that he voted to give these illegals the right to cut in. A few years ago a surge of 70,000 children unaccompanied by an adult came across the southern border. Many of these children just melted into the general society. It is obvious that the immigration system is broken and now is the time for congress to fix it. They have to come up with a compromise solution.

Pension debt

It was early in my career as a financial planner that ERISA (employee retirement income security act) was passed and I was interested in pension planning so I became quite familiar with the act. The main thrust was to guarantee that the money put into pension plans was enough to cover the future needs of retirees. The people responsible for these plans were called fiduciaries and the law clearly stated that they would be responsible for any underfunded amounts, (shortages). Most pension plans at that time as are most public plans today were called defined benefit plans. These government agencies promised their employees that at retirement they would receive a percentage of their salaries. In addition most plans had a cost of living clause in them designed to offset the effects of inflation and therein lies the beginning of the problem. In the late 70’s and early 80’s the country experienced double digit inflation and this caused pensions to become underfunded. Added to that, was the bargaining power that public unions gained during the past 40 years. Public entities that did not have the money to offer current wage increases resolved contract issues by offering increased pension benefits. People today are alarmed when they hear things like student debt is now over one trillion dollars but most are unaware that pension debt is over 6 trillion. While the recent rise in the stock market has slowed the growth in debt it has not reduced the debt. How were these funds allowed to underfund when ERISA lays out rules to prevent this? They just projected a higher rate of return and then increased the benefits. While ERISA stated that conservative rates of return be used in calculating contributions to the plan states like Illinois and California used higher rates to meet their commitments. When bank CD”S were paying 1% California was planning on 8% return on investments. Will these fiduciaries be held responsible for these underfunded plans? Don’t bet on it.

DACA

DACA refers to about 700,000 children illegally brought to this country and in 2012 by presidential decree given the right to work permits. President Obama stated that it was the duty of congress to make this action legal but congress refused. The President stated on several occasions that he did not have the right to do this but years went by and these young people became used to this new way. President Trump came in and gave the congress several months to resolve the issue and that date is coming up in March. Renewing the right of these children to remain with their work status is very popular with the public. Something like 80% of people feel these children should be allowed to remain in the country and work. Because of its popularity this has become a wedge issue for democrats meaning that it helps them get elected and re-elected. Trump has proposed that these children and their parents be giving a path to citizenship and has attached other requirements like building a wall. If the democrats agree to Trumps proposal he will get the wall he campaigned for and they will lose a wedge issue.

Davos

News people expressed surprise at how well Trump was received at Davos. The New York Times said world business leaders were pleasantly surprised at what Trump had to say and how he said it. There is an old adage that says when America sneezes the rest of the world catches cold but the reverse is also true. When the US economy purrs it spreads around the world. Because of its size and interconnectedness, developments in the US economy are bound to have important effects around the world. The US has the world’s single largest economy, accounting for almost a quarter of global GDP (at market exchange rates), one-fifth of global FDI, and more than a third of stock market capitalisation. It is the most important export destination for one-fifth of countries around the world. The US dollar is the most widely used currency in global trade and financial transactions, and changes in US monetary policy and investor sentiment play a major role in driving global financing conditions (World Bank 2016).

Cellulosic

In the early part of the 20 century scientist developed a strain of microbes that would produce acetone as a by-product instead of ethanol. With today’s knowledge of genetic engineering it should be possible to develop a new strain that would digest cellulose and produce a hydrocarbon as a by-product. Even more refined produce a branched hydrocarbon such as 2,2,4 tri-methyl-pentane. Since this is not soluble in water it would eliminate the need to distill to separate it from the water. In the manufacture of ethanol the final distillation process uses so much energy the product is not competitive. There are wild grasses that grow in the plain states like the Dakotas and Nebraska called switch grass. These grasses require no fertilizer, herbicides or pesticides and no irrigation. It is estimated that there are 35 million acres of marginal land, most of which is now set aside, where these grasses will grow naturally. The advantage of biofuels like cellulose is that they use up as much CO2 as they produce. It would take only minor changes to be able to use the existing ethanol plants for this production.

Internet

In a middle school class this past week students were asked to determine how to rate information on the Internet. Some said if it says dot EDU or dot GOV it is probably true. I am not sure where that came from but it is best to use multiple sources. On the news today the subject was the tax cut and some government group said 80% of the people will receive a tax cut but since only 50% pay taxes, not possible. What they meant was that 80% of those who pay taxes will get a tax cut. Then they reported the results of a poll where only 20% of the people will get a tax cut but failed to mention that only 50% pay taxes. One of the most common ways of distorting information is to leave out part of the story. This is often referred to as taking out of context.

Level playing field

Trump has said in the past that he believes in free trade but only if there is a level playing field. Without much news coverage he has started to take action. He has placed import taxes on solar panels and large washing machines. This will have two effects. First it will raise the price of these items and second it will make US products more competitive. Is this the start of a trade war? China not only has import taxes but they also have value added tax (VAT) of 13% to 17% on imports. Importing goods to China implicate three types of taxes – customs duties, value-added tax (VAT), and consumption tax (CT) – depending on the nature of the imported good and whether it falls under CT specified categories. These items are complicated, some say by design, but the bottom line is that there is no level playing field with China.

New tax law

Now that the new tax law has passed here is a comparison between 2017 and 2018 Married couple with two children filing joint with a family income of $60,000 2017 $1,865 tax due 2018 $0 tax due savings of $1,865 With family income of $120,000 2017 $15,470 tax due 2018 $11,135 tax due savings of $4,335 With family income of $240,000 2017 $46,064 tax due 2018 $40,415 tax due savings of $5,649 These examples are all using the standard deduction. Others who itemize can still deduct home mortgage interest on loans up to $750,000 and they can still deduct state income tax and property up to $10,000. This takes care of most middle income people. In Minnesota even the family with $120,000 income would pay about $5,000 in state income tax and this leaves $5,000 for property tax which means a $600,000 home, not exactly middle income.

Germany

As natural gas prices have been coming down (due to fracking) over the past 12 years as the conversion of coal fired power plants to natural gas has accelerated. The result is that CO2 emissions are now at the same level they were in 1995 even though the population has increased from 265 million to 325 million. Other factors, like increased fuel efficiency in cars and many trucks and buses using natural gas as fuel have helped. Germany is a different story. They have refused to allow fracking and they have been closing down nuclear power plants. Their emphasis has been on solar and wind. The result is the cost in the US is about 12 cents per kilowatt hour and in Germany the cost is 26 cents. This means that my average electric bill would be $300 per month. In addition German companies are more likely to relocate to areas where the cost of energy is lower. In spite of these efforts CO2 emissions in Germany are on the rise and they will not meet their commitment to the Paris Accords so they are moving to change their remaining coal plants over to natural gas. One area that the Germans excel is in conservation. Their homes are smaller and their actual cost is the same as a US home. They have responded to the higher cost by using less something the people in the US might consider.

Ted Stevens

The sad case of Senator Ted Stevens of Alaska and why I don’t trust the federal government. Stevens had served 7 terms in the US Senate and had a reputation of being an honest man. Just before the election he was accused by the Justice Department of concealing information about spending on a private cabin. He was charged and convicted 8 days before the election and he lost by 2% of the vote. Later the charges were dismissed because the DOJ lawyers withheld information from the defense that would have exonerated him. A blistering report released Thursday found that the government team concealed documents that would have helped the late Stevens, a longtime Republican senator from Alaska, defend himself against false-statements charges in 2008. "The extent of the corruption is shocking," Sullivan says. "It's the worst misconduct we've seen in a generation by prosecutors at the Department of Justice." Six prosecutors were investigated. Two were suspended from their work (though those suspensions were later overturned). The lead prosecutor was found to have exercised poor judgment, and left the government. Another committed suicide before the investigation was complete. None was prosecuted. The suspensions were overturned because it was deemed that these lawyers were incompetent and did not intend wrong doing. There is that word intent again. I only hope that if I am ever charged with a crime they will judge me on my intent. NOT

Trump time

Tomorrow is the first anniversary of Trumps inauguration and I as look back over the past two plus years I have only one word to describe him and that word is amazing. He is such an overpowering personality that he dominates the news in a way that I have never seen. To say he is controversial is a gross understatement. According to the political experts he started out as joke. The Huff Post said it would put Trump in the entertainment section. During the campaign he faced down 17 opponents all of whom, according to the experts, were more qualified than he and most of whom were seasoned politicians. The talking heads had him down and out at least a dozen times that I remember but he just kept on keeping on. Next he went up against the Clinton machine and once again all of the experts said repeatedly that Trump would never be president. Then came election night when the experts sat dumfounded watching in total disbelief as Mrs. Clinton went down in defeat. Since the election Trump has had to fend off daily attacks from the press, from democrats from never Trumpers and a newer enemy called the deep state. His personality is so large on the national stage that everyone talks about him incessantly. Some of the things he says and does are so outlandish that the press just cannot fathom him and they respond with the constant refrain, he is not presidential. Many of the complaints against Trump are legitimate but all too many are just wishful thinking. No one knows what lies ahead but almost everyone agrees it will be interesting.

Joe

I usually watch Morning Joe before I go to work and recently Chris Cuomo on CNN criticized Joe for being pro Trump. CNN's morning show anchor on Tuesday called out the hosts of rival MSNBC show "Morning Joe" for being "spokesmen" for President-elect Donald Trump. He was referring to Joe when the President was running for office and Trump would call in the show and this increased ratings as Trump increased ratings for all of the news world. Later when Trump refused to call in Joe turned against Trump and discovered that the more he berated Trump the larger his audience became and he has been following that plan since the election.

EITC

I volunteer to help people with their income tax down at the senior center and many of our clients are single moms. Because of their low income they do not pay any tax but often times they do not realize that if they just worked a few hours they would qualify for the earned income tax credit (EITC) and it can be sizable. For example if a single mom with two children just earned $5,000 she would be entitled to a $2,010 refund from the government. If she earned $10,000 her credit would be $4,000. An addition both moms would qualify for a $2,800 child tax refund. Just working 10 hours a week at Walmart and she gets a $4,800 check when she files. This is a big deal for these young women. There is a quick calculator at: https://www.efile.com/what-is-the-earned-income-tax-credit-eitc-eic-eligibility-schedule-calculator/

New tax law

Now that the new tax law has passed here is a comparison between 2017 and 2018 Married couple with two children filing joint with a family income of $60,000 2017 $1,865 tax due 2018 $0 tax due savings of $1,865 With family income of $120,000 2017 $15,470 tax due 2018 $11,135 tax due savings of $4,335 With family income of $240,000 2017 $46,064 tax due 2018 $40,415 tax due savings of $5,649 These examples are all using the standard deduction. Others who itemize can still deduct home mortgage interest on loans up to $750,000 and they can still deduct state income tax and property up to $10,000. This takes care of most middle income people. In Minnesota even the family with $120,000 income would pay about $5,000 in state income tax and this leaves $5,000 for property tax which means a $600,000 home, not exactly middle income.

Bill Clinton approval

President Clinton is remembered for a good economy. During the years he was in office, 1993 to 2001 the GDP averaged 4%. During those same years the country saw the dot com bubble. The Nasdaq which is loaded with tech stocks went from 1,000 to 5,000 and back to 1,500. It then took 12 years to get back to 5,000. Tax revenues doubled from one trillion to two trillion during the Clinton years. During these years spending was held to the lowest increase in years and the result was a balanced budget. In years past when revenues increased congress spent those new dollars on new programs but during the Clinton years they resisted the temptation. Clinton finished his second term with a 65% approval rating.

Free market

Nick Kristof wrote an op-ed in the NY Times showing that 2017 was the best year in history for the world. Fewer people lived in poverty, fewer children died, life expectancy increased and disease was on the wane. One of the causes is the growth in free market economies. Africa’s rapid growth is down to industry and free markets Africa is going to go from a $2 trillion economy today to a $29 trillion economy by 2050 China, the world's second-largest economy, is on a very long march from a closed communist system to some form of capitalism. India's economic-reform era is actually an era of a revolution of choices created by markets. In fact, many now believe that choice and competition are the ultimate antidote to many economic problems in the country

Soda

The city of Seattle has passed a tax on soda which goes went into effect January 1st. The local Cosco Store put up an ad showing how this will affect the cost of pop. It said that a case of Dr. Pepper that used to cost $10 will now cost $17.50.. Last year Philadelphia passed a similar law and since then the use of soda has gone down. Since this tax has gone into effect on Jan. 1, consumption of the sweet drinks is off by as much as 50 percent. There are other cities around the country that have soda taxes. The government sees this as a way to help people to healthier life styles and of course the tax goes to the government. The same is true of pot but I am not sure this leads to a healthier life. In any case the rich are not concerned.

Haitian funds

The average annual income in Haiti is $350. $13.5 billion in aid was raised by public and private funds to help with the earthquake that struck in 2010. This is 3.7 years of annual salary for every Haitian. Seven years later here is quote. There is also a distrust of humanitarian organizations in the country due to slow reconstruction following the earthquake, despite billions of dollars raised in international aid. The Red Cross, for example, is accused of building only six homes in Haiti with nearly half a billion dollars in donated funds, and spending millions on internal expenses. One of the more prominent organizations involved was the Clinton Foundation which is now under an FBI investigation.

Hawaii

While children are growing up they often hear their pleas for justice dismissed with the phrase life is not fair. Governor Ige of Hawaii has escaped a bullet. He has spent his life in politics and could have seen it all go down the drain if it were not for the fact that he is a democrat and both senators and the representative from his state are democrats. The blame for the false missile report was quickly blamed on a state employee who accidently pushed the wrong button. It remains to be seen of republicans from the main land try to make political points by blaming him. Blame is usually the name of the game. Here is a quote from some actress called Jamie Lee Curtis. "This Hawaii missle scare is on YOU Mr. Trump. The real FEAR that mothers & fathers & children felt is on YOU. It is on YOUR ARROGANCE. HUBRIS. NARCISSISM. RAGE. EGO. IMMATURITY and your UNSTABLE IDIOCY. Shame on your hate filled self. YOU DID THIS!" the actress tweeted.

Work

Kentucky is the first state to require Medicaid recipients to work. The plan calls for most Medicaid recipients who are not disabled and aged 19 to 64 to work at least 20 hours a week. There are help wanted signs on many businesses so there are jobs available. In a recent report, President Obama's Council of Economic Advisers said 83 percent of men in the prime working ages of 25-54 who were not in the labor force had not worked in the previous year. So, essentially, 10 million men are missing from the workforce. "One in six prime-age guys has no job; it's kind of worse than it was in the depression in 1940," says Nicholas Eberstadt, an economic and demographic researcher at American Enterprise Institute who wrote the book Men Without Work: America's Invisible Crisis. He says these men aren't even counted among the jobless, because they aren't seeking work. This would add a half percent to the GDP which would bring it to four percent. If the economy grew at 4% per year, US households would be able to buy and extra $8 trillion worth of goods and services in the next decade. This amounts to over $70,000 per household, or the equivalent of a year’s income for the median household.

Haiti

Hispaniola is an island in the Caribbean that is home to two countries, Haiti and Dominican Republic. Both are poor but Haiti is the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere. Haiti, the Western Hemisphere’s poorest and most deforested county, is plagued by corruption, gang violence, drug trafficking, organized crime and a general lack of economic opportunity. Despite their shared possession of Hispaniola a chasm separates Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Each country is home to roughly 10m people, but the Dominican Republic’s GDP is nearly ten times that of Haiti (see chart). The gap in measures of health and education is similarly large. The situation is further complicated as the Dominican Republic is sending people of Haitian descent back to Haiti. These Haitians are treated as second class citizens and believe that the Dominican Republic wants to take over the entire island.

Immigration rules

Sometimes the way we see things is based on a predisposition toward a certain outcome. Currently immigration is a hot topic. Trump has said he would like a policy based on merit similar to Canada where those who are selected are educated people with certain skills. It is well known that the school systems in Europe are superior to those in Africa so one possible criteria is to give preferential treatment to Europeans over Africans. Depending on viewpoint this might be construed as preferring whites over blacks. Yesterday Trump asked why we are taking so many immigrants from Africa and why we couldn’t take more from Norway. This was interpreted differently by different groups.

Dreamers

There are about 700,000 children living in the US whose parents came here illegally and they are called dreamers. Their status is now a part of the immigration negotiations going on in the congress. Originally the problem evolved when congress would not act and Obama stepped in and said these young people would not be deported until congress clarified their status. Obama stated that he did not have the authority to legalize them but used his action as a stop gap measure allowing congress time to act. "In the absence of any immigration action from Congress to fix our broken immigration system, what we’ve tried to do is focus our immigration enforcement resources in the right places," Obama said June 15, 2012. "This is not a path to citizenship. It's not a permanent fix. This is a temporary stopgap measure that lets us focus our resources wisely while giving a degree of relief and hope to talented, driven, patriotic young people." Congress failed to act so Trump is going to end DACA and now a federal judge in California has said that Trump cannot end this program. The interplay between the executive branch and the courts is more complicated than ever.

Skills

On Morning Joe today they were bemoaning the fact that people would consider outsiders like Trump and Oprah as presidents. Their concern is caused by two main reasons. The first can be illustrated by Robert Mcnamara. He was the President of Ford Motor Company who became Secretary of Defense and then finished out his career as President of the World Bank. He was able to handle these diverse positions because he had transferrable administrative skills. It is not necessary for someone to be a seasoned politician to be president but they do need certain skills that can be honed in various ways such as how Trump and Oprah earned their wings. The second reason has to do with the experience of those like Joe who has spent his life learning the ways of Washington politics and cannot understand how someone from outside without this experience could be president. The people in the political establishment who have learned the ways of Washington are not happy when a neophyte can step in and pass them by. This is not just affecting politicians but also those in the press who cover politics. They have spent years cultivating inside sources for information and now Trump tweets out his thoughts to the general public and they feel left out. All of the work they have done over the years to ingratiate themselves to various politicals is no longer an edge. In years past the New York Times editorial page would set the news for the day and now it’s an early morning tweet. This can be very frustrating.

Deporting

When it comes to deporting illegals it is important to concentrate first on those who have committed crimes. Trump should do a better job on this than Obama. President Barack Obama has often been referred to by immigration groups as the "Deporter in Chief." Between 2009 and 2015 his administration has removed more than 2.75 million people through immigration orders, which doesn’t include the number of people who "self-deported" or were turned away and/or returned to their home country at the border by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP). According to governmental data, the Obama administration has deported more people than any other president's administration in history.In fact, they have deported more than the sum of all the presidents of the 20th century. Of all those removed from US soil in 2009, Obama's first year in office, 35% had been convicted of a crime. That percentage increased to 50% in 2010, according to ICE, and then hovered between 55% and 59% for the remainder of Obama's time in office.

Moving left

In politics the rule is not what is good for the country but what is good for the party. This means the opposition party must be against anything for which the party in control might get credit. This goes both ways with both parties. The most recent example is border security. Here is Bill Clinton in his 1995 state of the union speech. “That’s why our administration has moved to aggressively secure our borders more, by hiring a record number of new border guards, by deporting twice as many criminal aliens as every before, by cracking down on illegal hiring, by barring welfare benefits to illegal aliens,” Clinton said. Others say that the democrats are not just against the wall because Trump wants it but rather the party has shifted left and now sees immigration differently. This may be the case because the Democratic Party has been moving left since the days of Kennedy who was a big proponent of lower taxes. Meanwhile the republicans are moving left with the democrats by no longer pushing for various unpopular social programs to offering less resistance to spending and holding off on social security reform.

Tax act 1997

The recent rapid rise in the stock market has some concerned that all the money is going to the wealthy but others point out that pensions also benefit. Most public pensions, especially in states like California, New Jersey and Illinois, are going broke and this market upswing will greatly benefit those states. During the Clinton years the NASDAQ rose from $1,000 to $5,000 and much credit was given to the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997. This act lowered the capital gains tax from 28% to 20% and introduced a child tax credit of $400. It increased the tax free gain on home sales and increased the tax on estates to those over one million. 164 Democrats in the House and 37 in the Senate voted for this tax relief.

Sanctuary cities

In 1954 the Supreme Court ruled in Brown v Board of Education that separate but equal was no longer good enough for public schools but they must in fact integrate. This was a momentous decision in that it just didn’t involve schools but all aspects of life. Many southern states were opposed to this and delayed the implementation of the new law to the point where the government had to step in to speed up the process. Justice delayed is justice denied meant the federal troops had to be sent in to force the states to comply with the federal law. In recent times that has not always been the case. When states defied the federal law against the sale of pot the federal government chose not to enforce the law. In the past few years sanctuary cities have sprung up across the country and now California has become a sanctuary state. A sanctuary city is a city that limits its cooperation with the national government effort to enforce immigration law. This is very similar to the way that southern states slow walked the new laws regarding integration but this time the federal government under President Obama did not try to enforce the law. Attorney General Sessions is now threatening to take steps to delegitimize these cities but the courts seem unwilling to back up his demands. It appears that the morality of the cause is more determinant than the words of the law but who determines which cause is more moral?

News the old way

There was panic in some conservative areas when it was announced that Disney will buy Fox news. For many others this was welcome news. There is a nostalgia for the good old days when people got their news from the three main networks and the networks got their news from the NY Times. It didn’t matter whether you watched Huntley-Brinkley, Walter Cronkite or John Charles Daly the news was the same. Of course they were only on for 15 minutes and for most people that was all the news they needed or wanted. At least in those days the NY Times tried to give balance coverage and that carried over to the networks. They followed Mr. Dooley who in 1902 said the job of the newspaper is to comfort the afflicted and to afflict the comfortable which mainly meant go after the rich and powerful which translated into go after big business. The constitution meant for them to go after big government which they slid into when business and government got in bed together.

Iran Poland

There is an argument going on as to what if anything Trump should do about the situation in Iran. In 2009 Obama remained quiet but Trump is speaking out. Recent history gives us an example of what happens when a US president takes a stand. Former Polish president and anti-communist leader Lech Walesa unveiled a statue of Ronald Reagan on an elegant Warsaw street on Monday, honoring the late U.S. president for inspiring Poland's toppling of communism. It can be inspirational.

New infrastructure

A new infrastructure bill is coming up soon and the democrats will have to decide if they will go along with something they have wanted for years and risk the credit going to Trump or oppose it in the hopes of proving that Trump cannot get things done. The democrats got such a bill in 2105 with bi-partisan support but it didn’t pan out as planned. Recall there were no shovel ready jobs. Here is a recap of the 2015 bill. Congress scored the first of what could be a series of bipartisan year-end victories late Thursday night with the final passage of a $305 billion measure to fund roads, bridges, and rail lines. The Senate approved the highway bill on an 83-16 vote. All but two Democrats—Senators Elizabeth Warren and Tom Carper—voted for it Obama will sign the bill into law, as it fulfills his long-running push for lawmakers to pass an infrastructure bill even though it is significantly less than the $478 billion he sought in his own plan earlier this year.The House cleared it, 359-65, earlier on Thursday. It won unanimous support from Democrats The result of this bill as graded by the American Society of Civil Engineers was a very poor D minus.

Hacking

The Obama administration was warned of Russian interference in 2014 and they were aware of Russian hacking in the summer of 2016 but in both cases chose not to take action. The first episode was before Trump had gotten involved and the second was when everyone thought that Hilary would win. Once the election was over this took on a new importance and many voiced grave concern that it would, “destroy our democracy”. It is one of those issues, like climate change, that gains or loses importance as the political climate changes. Most people are smart enough not to get too involved in the day to day tumult of politics but for people like me it just makes my head spin.

Unwinding

In the recession of 2008, largely precipitated by the home mortgage fiasco, the government printed money by a process called quantitative easing. The fed clicked a computer key and created 4 trillion dollars which they used to purchase government bonds in order to keep interest rates low. Now that the recession is over the fed must do something to reverse this and that something is called, “unwinding”. They can sell the bonds or wait until they mature and cash them in but in either case the fed ends up with 4 trillion in cash and then what? The fed by law is supposed to turn over cash to the treasury but is this really cash or just a click on the computer? To do either one of those things is called, “monetizing the debt”. This increases the money supply and keeps interest rates low but the treasury is required at some point to pay back the fed. The best move at this point is to unwind at such a slow rate as not to disrupt markets. Some question why the treasury can’t apply the 4 trillion to the current 20 trillion debt but that would lower the value of the US bonds currently held by foreign investors like China and if the US monetizes like that other countries see US debt as a bad investment. The way out as long as the economy continues to grow will be a slow unwinding.

Fence

The Secure Fence Act of 2006 was passed by a senate vote of 80 to 19 and among those voting for the wall were Senators Hilary Clinton, Barak Obama, Chuck Schumer along with 23 other democrats. 700 miles of fence were built most during the Obama administration. The fence cost just under $3 billion. Now Trump wants to build another 1,000 miles of fence and will attempt to work out a compromise of giving citizenship to DACA children to get democrats on board.