California

In years past people would say that as California goes so goes the country. If that holds the state will give us an incite into what a more socialistic type government will do. Over the years the state has offered generous pension benefits to all state employees including teachers and the result is there is not enough money to pay the promised benefits. Now the state is proposing free healthcare for all residence regardless of citizenship. At a top rate of 13.3% the state has the highest state income rate and 150,000 people out of 40 million pay one half of the state income tax.

Public pensions

While private employee unions are good for the economy, many feel that public pensions are not. Even FDR opposed public pensions because they negotiate with taxpayer monies. Public unions entered the game after WW 2 when most of the hard work to improve wages and working conditions occurred in the prewar years. They earned their power by doing all the right things. They organized and got out the vote gave up immediate income for long term gains and succeeded beyond expectations but now comes the time to pay the piper and the money is not there. Illinois is one of the more serious situations. The state constitution says the benefits must be paid but not how they are paid. Out going Mayor Rahm Emanuel recognizes this and has proposed changes that will adversely effect pensions. A constitutional amendment to allow changes to future, unearned pension benefits is the only way to stop rising property taxes and income taxes, as well as prevent annual pension contributions from crowding out government spending on education and social services, both at the state and local levels.

Ugly American

When I was a young man in the fifties there was a popular book called, "The Ugly American". The book told the story of how US diplomats didn't understand the culture and language of the countries where they were stationed but the Soviet diplomats were sensitive to these issues. The Americans were thought of as rich snobs who flaunted their we're better than you attitude. It is often said that history repeats itself and it seems that is happening in this case. We now have China spoiling their environment by mining rare earth metals so we can enjoy electronics like smart phones. We need these metals for wind mills and solar panels so we can keep our air clean while sending coal to Asia and Africa to kill their citizens with poisonous smog. Have we once again become the ugly American?

Trade with China

The US has an import tax on cars from China of 2.5% while China charges 25% or ten times more on US exports to China. One of the result can be seen in total sales. The U.S. imported 58,000 passenger cars from China worth $1.5 billion last year, according to the International Trade Administration, a federal agency within the Department of Commerce. That was a fraction of the number of cars the U.S. exported to China: 267,000 passenger vehicles worth $9.9 billion China has 4 times as many people. Overall China sells the US $420 billion dollars per year more than they buy from the US resulting in a trade imbalance. Would China be happy to get rid of all import taxes? Would it help the US if all import taxes were removed?

Pay raise

On Trumps trip to Iraq, he once again got himself caught up in child like lies. He said he got the troops a raise and in fact the raise is automatic and based on the cost of living. Military people get this every year no matter who is president. After WW 2 the defense spending was cut and US troops went into Korea with old tanks and went up against new Russian tanks and it cost lives. After the wall came down defense spending was cut and troops went to Afghanistan with unsafe vehicles that were damaged by mines and had to be updated while in action. What Trump could have said to the troops is that defense spending was increase to make their lives safer by providing them with better equipment.

Tax cuts

. Federal deficits are on the rise but not because of lower revenues but because of higher spending. The spending was bi-partisan since Trump wanted a large increase in military spending but the only way he could get it was to agree to a large increase in domestic spending. In other words the republicans have joined with the democrats to forget about the deficit and just spend. Revenue FY 2019 $3.422 trillion FY 2018 $3.340 trillion FY 2017 $3.320 trillion The tax cuts kicked in in January of 2018 and gave the people $200 billion and revenue still increased.

Russia and Trump

The Trump administration upheld all of the sanctions on Russia and added new ones starting with imposing financial penalties on 7 wealthy Russian businessmen and 17 top political officials for interfering in US elections. Trump then ordered the closing of Russian diplomatic properties in San Francisco, Washington D.C, New York City and Seattle. Trump then expelled 60 Russian diplomats after the killing of former spy in England. Trump sent military aid to Ukraine something his predecessor refused to do. While all of these things hurt Russia the biggest pain they suffered and are suffering is the low price of oil. Russia is the second biggest oil exporter in the world, making its economy vastly dependent on the global oil market. Oil and gas exports constitute 40 percent of the total federal budget revenue of Russia. Because of fracking the price of oil has fallen from over $100 per barrel to yesterdays close at $45. Trump is also pushing Germany not to build a new gas pipeline from Russia and to consider the purchase of natural gas from the US.

San Diego fence

This is from NPR on April 6, 2006. https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5323928 Before the fence was built, all that separated that stretch of Mexico from California was a single strand of cable that demarcated the international border. Back then, Border Patrol agent Jim Henry says he was overwhelmed by the stream of immigrants who crossed into the United States illegally just in that sector. "It was an area that was out of control," Henry says. "There were over 100,000 aliens crossing through this area a year." Today, Henry is assistant chief of the Border Patrol's San Diego sector. He says apprehensions here are down 95 percent, from 100,000 a year to 5,000 a year, largely because the single strand of cable marking the border was replaced by double -- and in some places, triple -- fencing.

Disease

Many years ago a young man from Ethiopia came to live with us. He had a number of health problems one of which was TB. Treatment lasts from 9 to 30 months depending on the strain When chickens are raised there are 10 to 20 thousand birds in each grow out building. Because of the closeness they are all given antibiotics to prevent the spread of communicable diseases. With these two disconnected thoughts, consider the plight of immigrants coming from Central America. They are housed in crowded camps where common childhood diseases can easily spread. In Guatemala, the top three causes of death in 2010 were lower respiratory infections, interpersonal violence, and diarrheal diseases. If these people are not kept around long enough for treatment and are released into the general population it poses a health problem. In 2017 a measles outbreak in Minnesota caused considerable concern when 69 cases were diagnosed. These cases were not related to immigrants but they illustrate how even in a country with proper sanitation and health care a problem can arise.

Touching

Santa Claus is in the news as some people express concern about children sitting on the lap of a strange man. I attended an orientation to sub teach in a new school district and was told that I should avoid touching any student. The assistant principal said that if a child tries to hug him he turns away.

Rare earths

There is a group of chemicals especially important to the high tech industry called rare earth metals. Up until the 1980's the US was one of the world's largest producers but environmental concerns begin shutting down mines and in 2015 the last US mine closed. China now produces 95% of these valuable metals. The mining in China is backward compared to the mines in the US that were closed and they are contaminating the ground water while causing significant health problems. Trump has issued an executive order to begin mining these metals in the US. New technology will reduce the environmental hazards and allow the US to move toward self sufficiency while reducing the damage in China. Without some help from the US the contamination is expected to reach the Yellow River a crucial water supply for 150 million people.

Fence

The Secure Fence Act of 2006 authorized 700 miles of border wall and about 500 miles have been built. The act also authorized the use of more vehicle barriers, checkpoints and lighting to curb illegal immigration, and the use of advanced technology such as satellites and unmanned aerial vehicles. Obama, Clinton, Schumer and 23 other Democratic senators voted in favor of the act when it passed in the Senate by a vote of 80 to 19. "We saw a 203 percent increase from March 2017 compared to March 2018 and a 37 percent increase from last month to this month — the largest increase from month to month since 2011," Tyler Houlton, the DHS press secretary, said in a statement.

Work vs charity

Senator Bernie Sanders has a ad stating that Warren Buffet, Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos have more wealth than the lower 50% of Americans. Their wealth based on current figures is about $320 billion and there are 160 million Americans in the lower half so if we take all of their money and give it to the lower group each will receive $2,000 and that is a one time thing. While that would be a nice Christmas present it is hardly a life changing gift. Throughout history and today there have always been to many poor people and too few rich to make a redistribution meaningful. Instead of taking money from Bezos let him use his business acumen to start new companies. He now employs 600,000 people and the best way to help a a poor person is to get them a job where they can earn many times more than $2,000 and they can do it year in and year out not to mention the dignity of work verses a hand out.

identity politics

The phrase identity politics is heard more frequently in this era of division and it deserves some explanation. People are divided up into groups most of the time based on something they have no control over. It is not unusual for a person to belong to more than one group. An Hispanic gay female illegal immigrant who is disabled and lives in the wrong zip code is a member of several groups. The individuals in each of these groups are considered by many as a victims of white privilege or more precisely white males. Even members of the white privilege are divided by those who were born wealthy and have good formal educations and those who were born poor and have little education. When viewed in this way it is not far from the plantation owner who provides food, clothing and shelter for his slaves and there are some who make this connection. One wonders what the long term implications of this behavior will have on society.

Power of social media

The power of social media is highlighted by the movement away from lobbying to direct control of messaging by using the Internet. They now have the ability to effect sponsorship of opinion programs that they disagree with. They can target a particular TV program with a barrage of negativity causing sponsors to cancel their ads. This makes sponsors more sensitive to what is being said and thus they can indirectly influence what is being said. The safest way to keep your advertisers is to avoid any controversial subjects. In other words to silence you. This has happened in our schools to the teachers and now it is happening to various TV shows especially those that express political opinion. If a particular blog or web site has enough viewers they have the power to cause consumers to boycott and thus challenge free speech. In the recent past there have been many examples of advertisers moving away from programs that have been attacked on social media by those with political agenda.

LPN exports

While countries gather in Poland to talk about climate change the US is doing something about it. U.S. natural gas exports have increased primarily with the addition of new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities in the Lower 48 states. U.S. exports of LNG through the first half of 2018 rose 58% compared with the same period in 2017. There are two liquefied natural gas plants in the US with four more coming on line in 2019 and another 15 awaiting FERC approval. This means less CO2 and cleaner air for everyone.

Stereotyping

In school today I subbed in a health class where the subject was stereotyping and I was reminded of the current state of politics in America. When Hillary labeled half of Trumps supporters as deplorables and later elaborated by saying she meant they were racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic and Islamophobic she was not alone in her feelings. There are many comments by many people regarding Trump voters. Those in the Midwest are referred to as red necks who drive pick up trucks with a rifle in the back window while they smoke Marlboro's and drink Miller beer. They lack formal education and kill animals for sport. In the Southern states the are called hillbillies who love their God and their guns. They have poor teeth, poor grammar are lazy and thought of as low information people. Who thinks of other people in these terms? They are mostly college educated people with white collar jobs and live along the coast. The congress and the national press corp are included in this group and are seen as more worldly or sophisticated.

Winding down

Between 2008 and 2014 the government engaged in a monetary process called quantitative easing. The government purchased about $3.5 trillion of treasury notes and mortgage backed securities. This increased the money supply and lowered interest rates. The interest rates were kept at almost zero for a number of years. This has allowed the government to borrow large sums of money at very low interest rates and even with these low rates the federal deficit still increased by 10 trillion dollars. Earlier this year the fed began taking steps to reverse the process by paying down the qualitative easing money in a process called winding down. This has caused interest rates to rise and will continue to do so until such times as the money supply decreases and this will take several years depending on how fast they act. The plan is to reduce the fed balance by $50 billion per month but that can change if it adversely affects the economy. So far it has played havoc with the stocks but the interest rate is holding at 2.5% and inflation rate is at 2.2%.

Carbon tax

As Senator Jeff Flake leaves office he is joining with the democrats to propose a carbon tax and this will be reported in the press as a bi-partisan agreement. Under either a cap-and-trade program that limits carbon emissions or a carbon tax that imposes an outright tax on these emissions, the poor may be among the hardest hit. Once again the poor will be hurt since energy cost for poor is a much higher portion of their budget than for the rich. Moving to natural gas cars would help the poor since fracking has brought down the price of natural gas and these cars run cleaner which helps the environment. The problem is that it doesn't hand over any money to the government so they can spend it as they believe is best for us. In 2017, the bipartisan Climate Leadership Council endorsed a carbon tax that would collect over $200 billion annually, with increasing rates and revenue over time.

Slavery

Once every few years some group suggest that the decedents of slaves be compensated with a cash settlement. This has not been considered a credible request by most people. Could a reversal of this idea be palatable. The United States is the only nation that fought a civil war to rid the country of the practice of slavery. In the process 560,000 white Americans mostly of European descent were killed. Should black leaders of today take up a collection from the descendants of these freed slaves to reimburse the descendants of those who gave their lives to free their ancestors. That would be just as ridiculous as the first example. Holding someone responsible for actions that occurred over 150 years ago is nonsense. It is interesting that this idea has never been brought up.

Islam

About 500 years ago the Muslim world decided that to protect the purity of its religion it must cut themselves off from western influence and in doing so they missed the industrial revolution. The result was that most Muslim areas remained third world countries. The only ones able to overcome this were the countries that had oil and these needed western help to develop the fields. If the west had not intervened, places like Saudi Arabia would still be desert tribes living in tents. The problems were further exasperated in 1948 when the State of Israel was founded. Even though the Arabs had overwhelming forces and outnumber the Israelis 100 to one they were humiliated by losing five wars and territory to go with them. More recently the defeat of Saddam and the loss of the dream of the caliphate under ISIS has added to their burden.

Walls

Trump says the wall will work and democrats say it will not and neither side knows for sure. There is some evidence that walls work but no evidence that they don't work. Israel is most commonly used as an example of a wall that works but there are others. Today, as President Trump pushes his campaign promise to build a wall on the border with Mexico, there are at least 77 walls or fences around the world — many erected after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks in New York City and at the Pentagon.

Tech companies

Walmarts off the hook. The groups that are anti big are now setting their sites on the tech companies. Facebook and Amazon are the new enemies of those who oppose big companies especially those making lots of money. Zuckerberg is 34 years old and worth $54 billion and Bezos at age 54 is worth three times that. They are prime targets for the new socialist movement.

Russian interference

The latest report on Russian interference in the US election process started in 2009 and was expanded to Twitter in 2013. It gradually added Facebook, Youtube and Instagram. In 2014, the administration got a report of Russia’s intention to disrupt Western democracies, including the United States. Russia has meddled in the affairs of at least 27 European and North American countries since 2004 with interference that ranges from cyberattacks to disinformation campaigns, according to an analysis by a surveillance organization.

Poland climate change

The climate conference in Poland ended this week with promises to save the planet but words alone will not do it. Most of the industrialized countries are still adding to the problem especially those countries that rely heavily on coal. China gets 70% of its energy from coal and India is at 56%. India imports 45% of its energy needs and the US could be sending them natural gas. CO2 emissions in the United States are lower than they were 20 years ago even though the population has increase by 50 million. This is primarily due to changing power plants from coal to natural gas. This much more could be accomplished in a short time just by moving the transportation industry over to natural gas. I have said this so often but I am like a voice crying in the wilderness.

Insurance

There are 76 million people on Medicaid including 12 million brought on because of Obamacare. Prior to that adults without children, mostly men, were not covered under Medicaid. There are 18 million people covered under Obamacare which is separate from Medicaid. Of these 6 million get free insurance and 85% of the others get a subsidy. Even with Medicaid and Obamacare there are still 30 million Americans without health insurance and most of these are between ages 20 and 65.

Government shutdown

This week on The Five, Juan Williams responded to Trump saying he would take responsibility for shutting down the government by stating that no body does that and he was right. Trump takes an action that polls show that 65% of Americans oppose and then says he will take responsibility for that action. This is the antithesis of how politicians normally behave but once again, Trump is not a politician.

Natural gas

Climate change is once again in the news only because of its political implications and not because of its air pollution. The world will show it is serious about global warming when they start to move toward natural gas for transportation. Past presidents have said the goal is to look at all sources of energy but the emphasis has been on electric cars. Using solar panels and wind for homes and places of business is a good start but batteries are still in the future. Changing power plants over to natural gas has been and will continue to be a winner. Running cars, semi-trucks, locomotives and 747's on batteries is not the way to go. Changing over to natural gas is the way. It offers an almost immediate reduction of CO2, acid rain and heavy metal contaminates like mercury and lead. If the world would just switch to natural gas for power and transportation the problem would be solved for the next generation and technology will have a chance to take care of the future. Just because natural gas is not a long term solution does not negate the fact that it is a good temporary solutio

Border security

The story begins on November 6, 1986, when Reagan signed the last comprehensive legalization bill to pass Congress. The Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) gave up to 3 million unauthorized immigrants a path to legalization if they had been “continuously” present in the U.S. since January 1, 1982. Here is President Clinton in 1996. After years of neglect, this administration has taken a strong stand to stiffen the protection of our borders. We are increasing border controls by 50 percent. We are increasing inspections to prevent the hiring of illegal immigrants. And tonight, I announce I will sign an executive order to deny federal contracts to businesses that hire illegal immigrant On October 26, 2006, U.S. President George W. Bush signed the Secure Fence Act of 2006 (Pub.L. 109–367) into law stating, "This bill will help protect the American people. This bill will make our borders more secure. It is an important step toward immigration reform."[1] The promise: In the 2008 election, Barack Obama pledged to create secure borders. He said that would mean "additional personnel, infrastructure and technology on the border and at our ports of entry.” Everyone says they want a secure border and everyone talks about it but that's as far as it goes. Pic-a-little, talk-a-little, pic-a-little, talk-a-little, talk, talk, talk.

Cash payment

Fake news is front and center with the $150 billion dollar transfer to Iran. The story makes it seem like this was money for some favor when in fact the United States merely released funds that had been tied up since the 1979 Iranian revolution. When released Iran had to give over much of this money to debtors. The real story was the $1.8 billion cash in the form of Swiss franks and Euros. Supposedly this was payment for an earlier arms deal but the big question is, why cash? When such deals are in cash it always raises questions and these have never been asked or answered.

Socialism

As the muffled cry for socialism becomes louder, it is time to review some recent history. East Germany was under the communist thumb and economic growth was dismal while next door West Germany using free market capitalism wash thriving. In 1989 the year before the wall came down the GDP of East Germany was $9,600 per person while in West Germany it was $22,000. There were very few cars on the street in the East and food stores were empty shelves and the West looked much like America. The same thing happened in North and South Korea and is presently going on in Venezuela. It always starts in the same way. Vote for me and I will take money from the rich and give it to the poor and it always ends up in the same way with every one being poorer except for a few elites. Here is the chief elite. Maria Gabriela Chavez, 35, the late president's second-oldest daughter, holds assets in American and Andorran banks totaling almost $4.2billion, Diario las Americas reports. 

Pearl Harbor

As the country mourned the passing of Bush 41, many suggested that it represents the last remnants of the greatest generation and that point was brought home to me in school today. In five high school classes no one knew that December 7th was the anniversary of Pearl Harbor. Some say we will never forget but younger people slowly lose track of important events of the past. Time marchers on.

New laws

Some people complain that the bible is unclear or ambiguous but in order to satisfy those people the bible would have to be written like a legal document with lots of whereas and party of the first and so on. The same thing is true of government regulations. They are written to try to cover every possibility and thus end up so complicated they mess up what they are trying to help. Back in 2000 a company called Enron worked closely with an outside accounting firm called Arthur Anderson and both conspired to jimmy the books and it ended up with Enron going bankrupt and Anderson going out of business. Two congressmen the Messrs Sarbanes and Oxley came to the rescue with new legislation but as might be expected it is so complicated that companies are at a loss as to how to enforce the new rules. The cost of hiring accountants and lawyers is so overwhelming that small companies are put at a disadvantage and are at risk of unintentionally breaking the law. Laws like this should be reviewed and refined once they are in effect.

Teachers

Teachers tend to shy away from controversial subjects but there are exceptions. It is acceptable and even encouraged when it comes to certain areas. For example explaining how the colonist (usually referred to as white Europeans) mistreated the Native Americans or how the Japanese Americans were interned during WW 2 or that Thomas Jefferson had a child with a black slave or how slavery was allowed for over 200 years. While it is important to cover these issues it is also necessary to explain the context. Slavery has been around since the dawn of civilization and America fought a civil war to rid the country of slavery. This war cost the lives of 600,000 soldiers, 94% of whom were whites European Americans. Some day treatments like chemotherapy and radiation will be looked on as uncivilized although they are acceptable at this time.

Coal

The climate change meetings in Poland are not meeting with much success. While the United States has lowered its CO2 emissions other countries have not. The main offenders are China and India. China is building hundreds of new coal-fired power plants capable of generating a total of 259 gigawatts (GW) of electricity—that’s equal to the entire existing U.S. coal fleet of around 266 GW, findings by advocacy and research group CoalSwarm show. While the US continues to close coal-fired power plants much of the coal is still being mined but shipped overseas.  In 2017, U.S. coal exports surged 61% from 2016 to nearly 90 million tonnes, with 50 million tonnes coming from the more pricey metallurgical variety that is a staple in steel making. "U.S. coal exports could rise 15% in 2018."

Carter Page

In the spring of 2016 a company called Orbis, hired Christopher Steele to research Trumps relationship with Russia. Orbis was a subcontractor of Fusion GPS a private Washington firm. Fusion was contracted by the law firm of Perkins Coie which represented Hillary Clinton and the Democratic National Committee. Clinton and the DNC paid Steele $168,000 for his work. A man named George Papadopoulos worked for the Trump campaign for three months in early 2016 as an unpaid foreign policy expert. In March of 2016 he met with some Russians who promised dirt on Hillary in the form of missing emails. Papadopoulos told an Australian diplomat of the meeting who in turn passed the info on to the FBI. The FBI then opened an investigation into the Trump/Russia connection in July of 2016. In May of 2016 the Washington Post reported that an FBI informant met with Papadopoulos and Carter Page, another Trump foreign policy advisor and this led to investigating Page. FISA applications to surveil Page used this meeting and the Steele research dossier to get approval. This is the center of the controversy since the dossier was largely discredited as having uncorroborated salacious material on Trump. This surveillance included phone and email and then let to surveillance of other people whom Page had contacted. This is referred to as the two-hop method wherein anyone who had contacted Page was also surveilled and all of this information was passed onto the Mueller investigators and is currently being used.

Medicare vs Obamacare

Back in 1965 the government came to me and said next year we will be taking money out of your check to pay for health care when you retire. I told them never mind that I would take care of my self and they said it is the new law. I asked, how much will you take out and they said $3 per month and I said, sign me up. If we take that $36 per year and increase it by 5% per year for 53 years we get $477 per year. The current cost of Medicare for low income people is $1,308 or more than three times the projected amount allowing for inflation. In March of 2010 the estimated ten year cost of Obamacare was $938 billion. Two years later the cost was $1.76 trillion. The future does not look any better. In January 2015, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said that the cumulative ten- year U.S. budget deficit (2015 to 2025) would total $8.1 trillion. One of the reasons the initial cost was low is that they started paying for it in 2010 but the benefits didn't kick in until 2014. This was to keep the first ten year cost below one trillion which they did but the cost quickly escalated after that. Just like Medicare they knew that once the people get a benefit they would not give it up regardless of the cost.

Move toward fairness

Now when the longing for a more egalitarian society is coming into vogue as more voices hint of the fairness of socialism, it would be interesting to take this to the extreme where instead of the average family earning $56,000 per year, all families earned that amount. There would no longer be any need to redistribute income and the progressives could relax having achieve their ultimate goal. That would mean the end of private enterprise and thus everyone would work for the government. No one would risk their assets to start a business if their income would remain at $56,000. While Americans in general would not like this, many would like to more in this direction. How far remains to be seen.

Compromise

As comments come in regarding Bush 41, I am struck by the number who say that Bush was willing to compromise. He was elected on the promise not to raise taxes. His famous comment, read my lips no new taxes came back, to haunt him. At the end of the first Gulf War his approval ratings hit 90% the highest ever recorded but a few months later he agreed to raise taxes with the promise that the democrats would cuts spending. He raised taxes but no spending cuts followed with the democratic controlled congress. A few months he lost his bid for reelection. Clinton was next to compromise during his second term when the republicans took over the congress. He raised taxes and cut spending. He cut benefits for retirees, veterans and the poor and he froze the pay of federal employees and finally he reformed welfare with the five years and your off plan. Budget planning seems to work best when you have a different party in the White House and congress and this is what we now have. Is the door open to compromise?