Is America great

My daughter introduced me to Face Book about a year ago and I am surprised at how many Americans have such a low opinion of America. They seem to see only the dark side of the country and close their eyes to the good. What other country would be a better place to live. In what ways would it be better. Would there be a downside to that country. Have these people considered these questions or do they just reflexively reject the country in which they live. Have they always felt this way or has some incident caused them to change their thinking and if so what kind of incident would have such power. Do these people see their personal lives in such dismal conditions. Was it something in their youth that turned them against America. It seems it would have to be more than just income distribution but maybe that's it. If everyone was given a more equal share would this satisfy them. Do they envy athletes, Hollywood stars and CEO's who make millions or perhaps high tech inventors who make billions. Would taking their money and giving it to the poor make them like America.

Platform opinions

Trump is in a tiff with Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey over the search for the truth. Trump tweeted that after looting comes the shooting. One side might say he was referring the LA riots where store owners were on top of their buildings with guns while the other side would say this was encouraging violence. The truth is a slippery devil. Consider the fact that on almost every major issue there are experts, people who have spent their lives studying the issue, and they cannot agree on what is right. Twitter is a private company and they have their opinion on truth and can exercise their right to refuse tweets based on their interpretation of the truth. This, however, moves them from being an information platform and toward a news agency. Platforms are designed to distribute information and not be concerned about content. News agencies are under government regulations but platforms are not. If a platform wants to offer opinions they may be subject to regulations.

Lost income

People who earn less than $60,000 per year and that includes 60% of the people who are laid off make more money being laid off than working. They receive one-half of their regular pay from the state and another $600 per week from the feds. This ends on July 31st but the democrats want to extend this to December 31st. For example, if you earn $500 per week and are laid off you get half of your salary which is $250 plus another $600 for a total of $850 which is $350 per week more than you make working. The fear is that people will not return to work. The law says that if your job opens up you must go back to work or forfeit your unemployment compensation. This is based on the honor system when answering questions and many people do not answer honestly and continue to collect. One compromise solution is to stop the unemployment at the end of July but offer $300 per to those who return to work until December 31. This will get people back to work and they will receive extra funds to help promote economic growth. Most feel the best solution is to just end this on July 31 as planned. A reasonable person might question why the excess funds over earnings was paid in the first place. If the idea was to keep people afloat then the extra from the feds would be to make up lost income not to increase income.

Stolen money

On public radio today a caller, referring to the riots in Minneapolis, suggested that people spend less time on the looting and more time on the billionaires who have stolen billions since the virus started. It was mindful of George Foreman who related an incident in his youth where he saw a well dressed white guy in his neighborhood and immediately knock him down and stole his wallet. When the police came after him he said the guy they should be after is the guy in the thousand dollar suit. It seems there are many people who feel that is someone is rich they must have stolen the money.

Recession or not

Former Obama economic advisor Jason Furman said he fears that the economy will improve before the election and this could lead to a Trump victory. Does that mean that he would prefer that the economy would not improve. Some have speculated that there are many people who dislike Trump to the point that they would be willing to sacrifice the economy to defeat him. While that may seem extreme it is true that a night time TV host said recently that he was hoping for a recession so Trump would not be reelected. This type of thinking is irrational and brings to mind the old adage of cutting off your nose to spite your face. This must be what is meant by Trump derangement syndrome.

Opinion vs fact

The press has tended to be liberal since 1900 but it has moved more to the left in the past 30 years and this move has taken a quantum leap since Trump came to office. It began with a book published in 1902 with the order to the press to, comfort the afflicted and afflict the comfortable. This was the start of a long list of muckrakers, journalist who felt it was their duty to uncover misbehavior. The original intent of the founding fathers was to use the press as a watch dog on the government but this was expanded to any group which wielded power. During the middle years of the last century the press leaned left but always maintained that they were not biased. In recent years they have started to own up to their bias and in the past few years they have dropped all pretense. Today the bias is blatant and cable news stations opening show their bias. News reporters and opinion writers are now mixed and opinion becomes news and is presented as fact. Now elected officials have an out for any statements they make saying that those who object are just political hacks. It has become difficult for the average person to discern what is fact and what is opinion. Former Senator Daniel Moyinhan said it best when he said everyone is entitled to their own opinion but not their own facts.

Many political observers are dismayed with Biden's inability to capture the headlines because of the virus which has kept him in his home. Almost daily Trump appears on TV talking about the virus and other current issues. Some suggest that Biden put up chairs in his back yard and invite the press people for a news conference. This would allow him the opportunity to present his plans for governance. He could do this several times per week and in time demonstrate his leadership skills and give the voters a reason to elect him. Others have suggested that he remain in the house and just conduct video messages.

Biden Trump

As Biden becomes better known to many people, his strength seem to be his likability. Years ago when I watched the first TV debates between Nixon and Kennedy, it occurred to me that how you present yourself on TV is more important than the issues. I then decided that the parties should choose a Hollywood actor and tell him what to say. Much to my surprise along came Reagan who was called the Great Communicator. Anyone who has watched Tom Selleck do the commercial for reverse mortgages will get an idea of what I am talking about. They get someone like Selleck and using focus groups figure out what words to use, then use polls to figure out what issues to talk about, then get a professional speech writer to put it all down and have the candidate use it like lines in a movie script. Many people will be voting this time with the same motivation they used in the 2016 election. There many voted against Clinton and this year many will vote against Trump. When asked why they voted this way, many replied that they just didn't like Clinton and Trump. Likability seems to be the determining factor. I didn't vote for Reagan the first time but chose Independent John Anderson but I did the second time. Last time my choice ticket was Kasich/Rubio but like Reagan I was not happy with Trump but I voted against Hilary. This time I like Trumps record of accomplishments so I will vote for him assuming some new development doesn't come along. Many people who are unhappy with Biden will vote for him because they don't like Trump.

Pelosi plan

Nancy Pelosi has come through with a shrewd political maneuver. The house passed a 3 trillion dollar stimulus bill with something for everybody and then turned it over to the republicans telling them to take out what they don't like. The message being that democrats care about the people because the are giving away all of these goodies and the mean old republicans are taking away the goodies. This will not pass in the senate and if it did Trump would veto the plan but either way the republicans are taking away benefits from the people.

Flynn

In the news, a previously classified email by Susan Rice, was released and there is a part that is concerning. "Comey said he does have some concerns that incoming NSA Flynn is speaking frequently with Russian Ambassador [Sergey] Kislyak. Comey said that could be an issue as it relates to sharing sensitive information," Rice wrote in the email, which was formerly classified as "top secret." Comey does not say there was evidence of any crime but wants to investigate because of the frequency of conversations. Then Comey said:"He added that he has no indication thus far that Flynn has passed classified information to Kislyak, but he noted that 'the level of communication is unusual.'"

Virus learning curve

Major crises like the virus beg the question, what have we learned. First off the country should prepare for the next virus by having a large supply of PPE. Procedures should be put in place to protect the elderly population. Research on virus protection should continue. Lastly steps should be taken to bring home manufacturing of medical supplies to assure the safety of the supply chain.

Communism is the answer

Watching the news and seeing many people blame capitalism for the current downturn, is mindful of what happened during the Great Depression of the 30's. At that time Russia was not closely tied with the west and did not feel the sting of the depression as was felt in Europe and America. Many American and English intellectuals looked to communism as the way to end the depression and build a more egalitarian society. After the war many of these same people joined the communist party thinking it to be the way of the future. The Soviets with their central control were never able to compete with the free market and in time collapsed but during the cold war many Americans were enthralled with the idea of communism. They were exemplified in the call, better red than dead and saw mutually assured destruction as madness. When Reagan called the Soviets the evil empire many of these people felt it would be the start of WW 3. Once again capitalism is under attack and will remain so until the free market triumphs and brings the economy back. Only then will these proponents of socialism move back into the shadows and wait patiently for the next depression. Some of these see this virus as the time to strike and would like nothing more than to shut down the entire economy under the guise of health safety. Marx predicted that the working people would ultimately rise up and overthrow the government.

Recession rewrite

Leaders are often accused of rewriting history but often times defining history works better, especially if they get help from the press. A recent example was with the recession of 2008. Someone said it was the worst economy since the great depression and then it was called the great recession with the news repeating that it was the worst recession since the great depression. The facts say otherwise. For example the Reagan recession of 1982 had 20% interest rates, 13% inflation and 10.8% unemployment. In contrast the Obama recession of 2008 had 5% interest rates, 5% inflation and 10% unemployment. More importantly was the recovery speed with the GDP hitting 4% in 1984 and the GDP never rose about 2.5% after the 2008 recession.

B-24

When I heard how quickly the auto plants shifted to making ventilators, I was reminded of the Japanese Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto who said, do not wake the sleeping giant, referring to the US manufacturing capability. The famous Willow Run GM plant at the height of its production was making a B-24 bomber every hour. Trump talked about the supply chain for making ventilators but that was minor compared to a war plane. Automobiles of the era had 15,000 parts and weighed around 3,000 pounds. Sixty-seven feet long, the B-24 had 450,000 parts and 360,000 rivets in 550 sizes, and it weighed 18 tons. Yamamoto knew what he was talking about as it was the US manufacturing of war materials that turned the tide of war.

The new press

Figures don't lie but liars can figure is an old adage that is true when figures are looked at from different viewpoints and these differences are exaggerated when politics comes on the scene. A good example is the deaths by the virus. On Fox they report the deaths per 100,000 of population and the US ranks 7th out of the top ten countries. On MSNBC they report total deaths where the US ranks first. How does this kind of reporting effect the way viewers see other stories. It hurts the credibility of both news outlets and unless people watch more than one source they get the wrong impression and perhaps that is by design. The free press which the founders wanted to dig out the truth is now used to present a viewpoint. The press has become just another advocacy group.

Tesla cost

In the free market a new product often comes out too costly for most but as the rich buy the cost per unit comes down and soon middle income people can afford it and with further price reductions the low income groups can buy. Using this concept Elon Musk came out with a very expensive electric car and using his personality and the desire of certain rich people to promote environmentalism he sold enough cars to make a less expensive model which more people could buy. He also took advantage of the governments desire to promote environmentalism acquiring billions in subsidies along with the government giving each buyer a $7,500 tax credit. Many who are concerned about the environment seem to be unaware that fossil fuels provide 63% of electric power.

Socialism vs free market

With the onset of the virus many are saying that socialism would handle things better than capitalism which means it is time for a little review of history. Socialism was tried in many places but it failed every time. Examine closely the outcome in Germany after the war. The East under central control and the West under the free market. The same people with the same culture but different economic structure. The same is true of North and South Korea. It isn't often that such direct comparisons can be made. In Korea like Germany the country was destroyed and both sides started from scratch and one side far out performed the other. It is said that you only have to fly over Korea at night to see the dramatic difference with the South being lit up and the North all dark. Since starting out even after the war the population of the south has grown twice as fast and the GDP has grown 60 times faster. While there are many improvements that can be made to the free market system to consider socialism is not the answer.

One time spending

In the midst of this virus crisis the government should act as if they were at war and spend whatever it takes but these expenditures should be one time deals and not permanent. That would give the politicians a chance to show how much they care with out placing a long term burden on the economy.

Guilty plea

John Smith was arrested and charged with the crime of first degree murder. The evidence against him was strong and his lawyer recommended that he plead guilty in return for replacing the death sentence with life in prison. He was convicted and sent to prison. Later DNA evidence was presented which proved his innocence. The District Attorney then dropped the charges and set Smith free. A local judge in response to the victims friends and relatives held up the dismissal to allow these friends to present evidence to the court which they felt would contradict the DNA. This process went on for several months while Smith sat in limbo never knowing from day to day his fate. The main case presented by the victims friends was that he would not have pleaded guilty if he were innocent.

The law

The inner workings of the law can be a mystery to many people. The current case against General Flynn illustrates this point. It is considered standard operating procedure for the Justice Department (DOJ) to skirt the law. They do not necessarily break the law but they come close. Just as local police are allowed to lie to suspects to gain a conviction, Justice often uses what are called perjury traps to get convictions. That is why the lawyer will tell you not to say anything and the law permits you to remain silent. If during cross examination under oath the suspect makes a contradictory statement, that is lying under oath and that is a felony. Flynn's lawyer convinced the DOJ that he was coerced into lying and should be allowed to recant. They dropped the charges but now a judge has given time for people to come forth and state their opinion on the case. Many feel that this will just make the DOJ look bad because the DOJ would normally not admit to any mistakes and further investigation will likely lead to the revelation of more mistakes.

Nursing homes

As of May 9th there were 558 deaths in MN caused by the virus and 80% of these were people in long-term care facilities. That leaves 111 in a general population of 5.64 million. It seems that MN like other states should be concentrating efforts on eldercare places. Here is a news item from May 6th. Across Minnesota, from Rochester to Duluth, nursing homes and other facilities that care for seniors are rolling out a series of new measures to protect residents from the spread of the coronavirus and to develop contingency plans in case patients need to be quarantined.  Does this seem a little late? Every year 80% of the people who die from any cause are over age 65.

Pardon

Using the old teenage defense, mom everyone is doing it, Trump could pardon General Flynn based on the General Cartwright case. WASHINGTON — President Obama on Tuesday pardoned James E. Cartwright, a retired Marine Corps general and former vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff who pleaded guilty to lying to the F.B.I. about his discussions with reporters about Iran’s nuclear program, saving him from a possible prison sentence. It appears Trump would rather wait and see.

Monday morning

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Many talking heads are saying what should have been done and how much better off the country would have been. If these people didn't know this until now they are all in the same boat as the rest of us but if they knew this in advance why didn't they speak up. If they knew that China was mishandling information why didn't they tell us. Why didn't they suggest stopping air travel from China in December instead of when Trump did it in January. Why didn't they request the stock piling of PPE last year. In fact while this virus threat was developing most of the news people were not even discussing it. This is not unusual but rather the norm. The news people handle most high profile events as Monday morning quarterbacks. It is mindful of how the news tells us everyday why the market did what it did yesterday. If they want to be helpful they should tell us what it will do tomorrow. Its OK to report the news as that is their job but to criticize using hindsight is no help. It is just an ego trip.

Country first

Most people are aware that politicians claim to put the country first but more often than not that is not the case. Currently all the politicians are saying that they are putting the country first when it comes to the virus but in practice republican states want to open up and democratic states want to stay closed. Is this just a coincidence or just more double talk?

3 Trillion

The democrats have propose a $3 trillion stimulus to offset the virus. Two things. First Trump should quickly realize that he cannot out give the democrats and second there is no mention of jobs in the new plan. A good balance might be $2 trillion to give away and $1 trillion for infrastructure as that would provide good paying jobs. For most people having a good job that allows them to pay their own way is preferred to a government benefit plan.

Pension

As the government continues to hand out money to combat the effects of the virus, many states are asking for funds to pay state employees and this is a reasonable request. Some states are asking for funds to pay for pensions and this is not reasonable. Almost all state, county and municipal pensions are underfunded, that is, they are going broke. Take for example the MN state teachers retirement which is billions of dollars underfunded. The teachers negotiated in good faith with the school board and ended up with a comfortable pension. In MN. a single teacher earning $60,000 or $5,000 per month takes home $3,220. If he retires at age 62 his take home pay including social society will $3,643. He makes $5,000 per year more retired than he was making working. The pension was padded to avoid giving raises while he was working. He needed this money when he was a young father with kids and mortgage not at retirement when the house is paid and the kids are grown. One way to address this problem is to say that future retirees will not receive a COLA and that money could be used to offer higher starting pay. In 10 years this would be reviewed.

Wealth transfer

The news regularly reports that we are leaving $24 trillion in debt to our children but they rarely report that the baby boomers will be passing on $68 trillion in the largest generational gift in history. This is from CNBC The biggest wealth transfer in history is about to happen — and it’s now expected to be more than double what many thought it was. It’s estimated that 45 million U.S. households will transfer $68 trillion in wealth over the next 25 years, according to Asher Cheses, a research analyst and lead author of a new report from financial services research firm Cerulli Associates.

Cut taxes

Under the Cares Act people who are on state unemployment will receive an additional $600 per week from the federal government. This means the unemployed people who had been earning up to $50,000 per year will receive more money not working than working. Many have complained that first responders who are working will not receive any additional pay. One way to even this out is to cut payroll taxes. This will give all who are working a 7.5% raise effective immediately. It can be set up to only involve people earning less than $50,000. This is a way to help low to middle income people. Even though democrats profess to be the party of the poor they oppose this plan and some say it is because Trump has proposed it. One more example of politics as usual since both parties consistently put party above country.

Chinese cheap labor

There are 370,000 Chinese students attending US universities and most are studying science and engineering. Many of these students report to the Chinese Communist government and are given the assignment of finding out about US research and forwarding that information to Chinese scientists. This allows them to avoid large expenditures in R&D. To add insult to injury the Chinese then apply for patents on this new technology. During the 40 year race to use cheap labor not burdened by environmental concerns, US industries flocked to China to the point where the trade balance is out of wack and the supply chains are subject to the whim of the Communist government officials. It is time to bring back manufacturing to the US and the good jobs that go with it. This may be the silver cloud in the storm.

Women at work

I am ten years older than the baby boomers and my life reflects that difference. Most of the men my age and older achieved their wealth and power through inheritance, what is called old money. That changed when the war and depression children came along. Women got a taste of the workplace during the war and wanted to continue working. I worked in industry during the 50's and 60's and there were virtually no female supervisors meaning that almost all women worked for men. This put men in positions of power over women and led to abuse of power particularly in matters of sexual harassment. The old money guys had ways to cover up this ugly behavior as it was so rampant that those who might want to expose it were involved in it. Witness the silent press when Kennedy was president. As more women moved into the work place and gained power this behavior became more difficult to hide. Many of those men who are now in their 60's and 70's are being exposed especially those who have achieved celebrity status and much of this exposure is caused by political infighting. People on the other side of the political divide are searching for past sins and for many these sins are easy to find.

Eating out

There are many studies that indicate eating out causes weight gain. Portions are larger and fat content is higher and most people drink more. USDA data show that over the past 30 years, the food that Americans eat away from home (e.g., in restaurants and fast food chains) has grown substantially. In 1977 people obtained approximately 18% of their daily calories from food away from home, but the percentage jumped to 34% by 2012. Public health experts said that they were alarmed by the continuing rise in obesity among adults and by the fact that efforts to educate people about the health risks of a poor diet do not seem to be working. As people trade home cooking for restaurant cooking they are consuming less food and thus farmers are throwing out food. Farmers are destroying their own crops after the coronavirus ravaged the food market. To add to the confusion many people feel they are eating too much while they are stuck in their homes when in fact total caloric intake is less.

A plan for Biden

On the talk shows one of the big issues is how Biden can get his views in the news. What's wrong with scheduling information meetings in a medically safe area and inviting a dozen reporters who could sit spaced apart and ask questions. It would be similar to what Trump does but the questions would center around Biden's plans for the future. How would he restart the economy, his views on immigration reform, taxes, trade deficits, China and so on. Depending on which reporters were invited there could be questions on Ukraine and sexual harassment. His answers would likely not effect his base but they could give the independent voter a better understanding of his position on issues. For those who are just voting against Trump the plans that Biden has are not important.

Over 65

80% of those who die from coronavirus are over 65 and that is not much different than most years. In 2017 2,813,503 people died in the US and 2,067,404 were over age 65. This represents 71% which is lower than the long term average of 75%. Contrast this with the number of talking heads who expressed surprise that so many elderly people died from the virus.

Open now

There are some people who say that the democrats want the virus to bring down the economy so Trump will not be reelected but there is a hole in that theory. Some democrats say that if you open the economy too soon, the virus will come back and create a depression. If those two statements were true the democrats would be pushing to open the economy quickly but they are trying to slow down the opening. One possible way to justify these two ideas is to believe that opening the economy will be a success.

Quantum press

There was a time in my earlier years, where I became very interested in quantum mechanics and one of the principal concepts, states that the observer creates the observed, which is another way of saying that in the world of sub atomic particles, you always find what you are looking for where ever you look. I think in today's world we have what I call the quantum mechanics press. They seem to set a predetermined course to reach a predetermined conclusion and they always get there. The result is that emotion replaces logic and facts get lost in the process. The reader must, by necessity, search many sources to make any sense out of what is happening.

Biden's situation

As the latest sexual scandal unfolds around Biden both sides have reverted to the teen age defense of mom, everyone is doing it. Trump supporters say look at Clinton and Biden supporters say look at Trump and soon it will all go away. Politicals like the constant battles between parties because it provides a way to get out of trouble. No matter what problem arises as long as you can find someone in the other party that does something similar you are in the clear. The story will be a hot item for a week or so but then disappear. One interesting difference between Trump and Biden is that Trumps cases all occurred when he was a private citizen but Biden who has been in public office his whole adult life is easier to criticize. This kind of activity is not acceptable but it is more in the news when it involves an elected official. It is amazing that reporters respond to these incidences by expressing surprise at the hypocrisy.

Payroll tax

Back in 2011 President Obama proposed a payroll tax cut and it passed easily. The Senate and the House of Representatives passed a bipartisan deal Friday extending the payroll tax cut and unemployment benefits while also avoiding a Medicare fee cut for doctors for the rest of the year. A majority of House Republicans and Democrats voted in favor of the bill, though 91 Republicans and 41 Democrats in the chamber voted no. Senate Democrats voted overwhelmingly for the bill while Senate Republicans largely opposed it. Trump has proposed a payroll tax cut but democrats oppose the idea. House Democrats on Monday night balked at President Trump’s proposed payroll tax cut designed to help shore up the economy amid the coronavirus outbreak.

Flu

The flu epidemic of 2017/2018 killed 80,000 Americans and 80% of those were over age 65. (CNN)An estimated 80,000 Americans died of flu and its complications last winter, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Additionally, the nation experienced a record-breaking estimated 900,000 hospitalizations last flu season. Many reporters express surprise at the fact that elderly people are most effected by the flu but that has always been the case. It is not uncommon for elderly people to have underlying conditions that make them more vulnerable to disease.

Health vs economics

When the virus first hit the news the debate was about health safety and economic safety and health won out but as time passed the country moved toward opening up. As this change began things turned political as republican states started to open before democratic states and once again science took a back seat to politics. The latest action is based on the concept of taking advantage of a crisis as democrats propose a trillion dollars for state, county and municipal workers and republicans look for protection against law suits by anyone who gets sick going to work. As both sides agree to toss in another trillion for infrastructure they may achieve the grand daddy of all deals and to paraphrase Everett Dirkson, a trillion here and a trillion there and soon it adds up to real money.