Climate Malthus

In 1800 Robert Malthus a demographer predicted that people would soon be starving. He based this on observing population growth over a long period of time and then extrapolated this growth into the future and discovered that food production could not keep up. He was unaware of the coming industrial revolution which mechanized the farming industry to the point where the government started paying farmers not to plant. This idea of predicting catastrophes can bring money in the form of books or grants and has been used many times over the years. This past week a group met at the White House to discuss climate change and once again the predictors were talking about another coming catastrophe. This time it was more than predictions it was statements of fact. This extrapolation was based on three years of observation and collecting data. The six glaciers have passed "the point of no return," Rignot said, which means that total collapse — the melted retreat of the glaciers — cannot be prevented. "The only question is how fast it's going to go." Experts are saying that this data is correct because it was based on past observations and not computer generated models. This, of course, is the same procedure that Malthus used. My guess is that they are following Al Gore’s advice when he was questioned about the many controversial statements in his book and he responded by saying it was necessary to exaggerate to get people’s attention. It is necessary to tackle the problem of CO2 emissions but it must be done in a methodical manner and not in panic mode. If we can just get the politics out of it we can take the steps needed to transition away from fossil fuels. We have already made great strides here in the United States and now we must help countries like India and China to move away from coal to oil and gas.