Words

New York City is threatening to fine people who use phrases like illegal alien. Many words that are normally not used in polite conversation may come next. Pejorative words referring to race and national origin or other words referring to sexual body parts are taboo but not illegal. In the schools students are told if they hear a word that makes them uncomfortable they should report it to an anonymous hot line. Some people are upset if the word Jesus comes up in a conversation and refer to the speaker as a Jesus freak. Where is George Carlin when you need him.

Trump visit

Minneapolis, like many large cities has been a democratic stronghold for years and the police department is part of the city. The police like many groups were partial to labor and thus leaned toward the democrats. A few years ago this began to change and more recently the police have started to move away from democratic control. In the past when presidents came to town off duty police were encouraged to attend, wearing their uniforms but that has now changed. For the upcoming visit by President Trump the police were told not to wear their uniforms. This does not apply to those providing safety but to those who want to attend the rally. The democratic mayor Jacob Frey said Trump is not welcome, perhaps forgetting that he represents all of the people of Minneapolis. Maybe this will set a precedent and there will be others not welcome in the future. It is mindful of some colleges that refuse to allow conservatives as guest speakers.

Leaks

President Trump was inaugurated on January 20, 2017 and on February 2, 2017 his private phone call with Australian Premier Turnbull was leaked to the Washington Post and since that time his presidency has been plagued with leaks. Many people have legitimate complaints about Trumps openness on his tweets but it appears that much of what he doesn't tweet about gets in the press anyway. In either event this is a very open administration.

Climate Einstein

The Latin phrase Post hoc ergo propter hoc is an error in logic that assumes the cause of something is another thing that merely occurred earlier. A good example is CO2 levels are increasing and this is the cause of climate change. Ice core sample taken from the Antarctic show CO2 levels the highest in 800,000 years so that part is true. To assume that to be the cause of global warming is logical but could be subject to ignorance of how other changes are involved. For many years Newtonian physics explained completely the way the physical world behaved but along came Einstein and proved that Newtons laws were flawed. Is there a climate Einstein hiding in the weeds. Those who say that CO2 is the answer to climate change period may be in for a surprise. A good scientist avoids making such dramatic conclusions.

Impeachment

Senator Harris is calling for the impeachment of Justice Kavanaugh. This requires a two/thirds vote in the senate and there are currently 49 democrats. To reach the 67 needed 18 republican senators would have to vote to impeach. The same is true for Trump. Former Republican Senator Jeff Flack says at least 35 republican senators will vote to impeach. The republicans did the same thing to Clinton when they brought three charges against himand the charge of lying under oath received only 55 votes. That's a long way from 67 and the charge should never have been brought. It was a political ploy to discredit Clinton and it back fired as Clinton left office with a 65% approval rating.

Parody

Trump is well known for using hyperbole and exaggerations to boast about his accomplishments. He uses words like tremendous, greatest and strongest on a regular basis to describe his people and his deeds. While this coming from the president makes people uncomfortable because bragging on oneself is not acceptable in everyday conversation. If some ask you if you are smart even if you think you are you will likely say about as smart as most people. When people do heroic acts they often respond by saying they didn't do anything anyone else wouldn't have done. This is the aw shucks idea as seen throughout our history. Yesterday in a congressional hearing a congressmen reporting on a serious incident substituted some of his own words as if they were part of the facts and later described what he did as a parody,(parody is an imitation of the style of a particular writer, artist, or genre with deliberate exaggeration for comic effect.). This caused his entire presentation to lose credibility. Trump supporters are willing to set aside his braggadocio because he is getting things done that they want done. How this congressman's supporters will react remains to be seen but they will probably overlook this little episode.

Millennials buying homes

The conundrum surrounding climate change can best be illustrated by looking at millennial's. These are the 23 to 35 year olds who are entering the work market. They are very vocal in their concern about climate change but their actions belie their words The back to the city trend has been reversed and millennial's are moving to the suburbs in droves. They are buying homes and commuting to work like many older folks and buying is increasing as mortgage rates are coming down. If the household income is under $100,000 they can qualify for first time home buyer credits of $8.500. A $250,000 home requires 3.5% down on a FHA loan and this can be covered. The current rate on a 30 year loan is 3.5% so the principal and interest payment is $1,125, add in taxes and insurance and your at $1,350 which is less than the average home rental in Minneapolis. It is less expensive to buy than to rent and that is the way these young people are going.

Tax the rich

It is politically popular to go after billionaires so what do these people do with their money. They are all different but they have some things in common. Mark Zuckerberg is the founder of Facebook and is 34 years old and worth $70 billion dollars. His company employs 35,000 people most of whom are high tech types earning on average $120,000 per year. While his life style is modest he does splurge on real estate and owns several expensive homes. More than 99% of his wealth is in Facebook stock. The same is true for other young billionaires in that their money is in stock. If a wealth tax is introduced these rich people will sell stock to pay the tax. This is a typical transfer of money from the private sector to government under the theory that government can do more good with the money than these companies can. While these companies create jobs the government does not. Jeff Bezos founder of Amazon is worth $100 billion and has 660,000 employees. If Senator Sanders proposal of a 8% wealth tax is approved, Bezos will cash in $8 billion in stock each year and send that to the government. This is money that would otherwise be invested in growing his business or starting new businesses.

Billionaires

When Senator Warren came out with her 2% tax on billionaires, I ask why only 2. Today Senator Sanders suggested a wealth tax of 8% on billionaires and I ask why only 8.

Teenage defense

Many people have expressed concern about concepts like moral equivalency and situational ethics but this type of approach has been used effectively for years by both parties. I call it the teenage defense, that is, every-bodies doing it mom. As long as the politicians can keep the animosity between parties hot and heavy they can use this as a cover up. Regardless of the dirty deeds as long as they can show that the other side did the same thing then all is well. People have taken up sides and when their side is affected all they need to do is find a similar incidence on the other side and they are home free. Until the citizens give up their personal bias and open their eyes to both sides of issues this excuse will continue to be used. Will people start getting their news from both left and right sources or will they stick to just listening to what they want to hear.

Divergence

I just finished a book about divergence. In the current vernacular it means thinking outside of the box. The author points out how difficult it is to go against the grain, to be different, to stand alone against the crowd. This can be illustrated by listening to a typical semi-serious conversation and what you hear by reading between the lines is, why can't you be more like me. People like to be in a room where others think like they do. People often read news reports not to expand their knowledge but to confirm what they already think. Conservatives listen to Rush Limbaugh and liberals tune in to CNN. If someone does not conform to the norm they are subject to suspicion at best and ridicule at worst. Often times lies are made up about their words or behavior and they suffer accordingly. The author regrets the social forces that act against divergence feeling that new ways of thinking and doing things can bring progress.

Real estate corruption

Those who went after Trump for tampering with the election are now having second thoughts. They feel that the Russia/Trump affair is a lost cause and they are now aiming for corruption. With all the real estate Trump owns it should be easy pick ins to find some crime. The interesting thing about impeachment is that you don't have to prove a crime like you do in court. The democrats in congress just need to vote to impeach and it is done. They will not get a conviction in the senate but they know that just as the republicans knew when they went after Clinton.

Saudi vs Iran

Should the US intervene in the dispute between Saudi Arabia and Iran. We no longer need their oil so we can afford to sit on the sidelines and watch, or can we. The experts agree that it would be a close victory for Iran if they went to war and if that is the outcome can the US live with that. Iran having control of Saudi oil would mean that oil would no longer be sold in dollars but in Iranian rials. Iran would then be able to dictate oil policy for the rest of the world. Their income would be vastly more than it is today. They would not have to close off the Straits of Hormuz to restrict the supply and run up the price. At that point would those who now opposed intervention change their minds. Would the Monday morning quarterbacks be claiming that the US should have helped the Saudis.

Dislike toward Trump

Many moderate democrats are feeling pressure to move left and it has put them in some uncomfortable positions. They are not in favor of open borders, reparations, wealth tax, cash handouts, the new green deal or confiscating guns. That is why many lean toward Joe Biden as he is seen as more middle of the road but they are concerned about his ability to beat Trump. Their hope is that the candidate will move toward the center and they will not have to deal with these positions that they see as extreme. The base however is growing stronger and will not be happy with any moves away from the far left positions, a move they will see as a sellout. The current compromise strategy is to drum up enough dislike for Trump hoping this will unite both groups.

NOK subs

Here is a news report from this week. In recent weeks, North Korean media have released images of a “newly built submarine” and subsequent analyses researchers and think tanks theorize it is a second Sinpo-class ballistic missile submarine (SSB) that might be capable of launching nuclear ballistic missiles. While the eyes of the world are on the land based missile launches the more serious threat is from under the sea. A sub off the coast of California and one off the coast of New York could hit a half dozen US cities using a first strike strategy. It would mean the end of North Korea but it puts them in a powerful bargaining position.

Iron Dome

When President Reagan suggested the anti-missile defense system, many in the press ridiculed the idea calling it Star Wars. Today 16 countries have purchase such a system called Patriot rockets. Some disbelievers still maintain that these rockets do not work. While it is true they can be overwhelmed if enough rockets are fired close together, they still provide a good degree of protection. Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip fired more than 600 rockets into southern Israel in less than 24 hours, killing at least four Israelis and leaving several more in critical condition. The Patriot measures the incoming rocket and determines if it will hit a populated area. If not it does not fire. In this attack the Patriots shot down 240 incoming rockets and that is why the number of Israelis killed was limited. The technology surrounding these Patriots is being refined and the demand will rise accordingly.

Feelings and facts

People ask, how did the country get so divided. There may be a number of answers but one part started many years ago when some felt the defense department was getting too much money and taking away from needed social programs. The military/industrial complex was making companies rich at the expense of the safety net. During the Viet Nam era this dislike for the military spread to the soldiers who were called baby killers when they returned home. More recently the animus toward the soldiers was transferred to the police and these together manifested in disrespect toward the flag and the national anthem. The dislike of people in authority soon became dislike for people who disagreed. Some Christians who believe homosexuality is a sin are considered to be not just wrong, not just intolerant but evil. Name calling has replaced conversation as feelings override facts. Falling into this kind of trap leads to an unhappy life but those in the grip of it are not aware of how it is effecting their daily life.

Red Flag

As people watch the saga of Antonio Brown unfold be mindful of the pending passage of Red Flag laws. Antonio has lost his sponsor Nike and has been let go by the Patriots all because of an accusation of wrong doing. He has not yet had his day in court and even if he is found not guilty his life has forever changed. If someone, maybe someone who has it in for you can convince the authorities that you are a danger to yourself or others, the police can come to your door and take away your guns. This is before any trial. Sometimes a law sounds good but when you look deeper there are serious short comings. It may be one more example of good intentions having unintended consequences.

Children and climate

On NPR today they said that many children are suffering from anxiety over the future problems created by climate change. When elementary students are told that if something isn't done in the next 12 years that it will be to late and the world as they know it will disappear, it is likely that they will be upset. Tomorrow children will be allowed to skip school to express their concerns about this problem. Whom they will blame is up for grabs but perhaps they should go home and tell their parents to buy smaller cars and houses with no lawns, move closer to where they work and to throw out all the cleaning chemicals under the sink. They should be told that while the United States has made strides toward reducing CO2, Asia and Africa have been adding CO2. This can be dangerous because these are foreigners who have dark skin and in today's world someone will probably make a big deal of that.

GM

The UAW strike against GM is in the news. I worked in both union and non-union plants and private unions in general are desirable as opposed to public unions which are not. While I back the UAW they must be careful as their benefits along with poor management cause GM to fail ten years ago. The big problem facing GM is legacy benefits. GM with ten times more retirees than Toyota is at a competitive disadvantage.

Joe Biden

In my early career, I was a plant manager and there were times when I had to terminate an employee. I recall two people in particular because they both told me later that it was a good thing. Most people do not have enough self awareness to realize they are not suited for the job there in and it takes someone else to point this out. If your not performing well on your job you will be unhappy and if you are unhappy at work you will soon be unhappy period. I bring this up as I look at my favorite democratic candidate Joe Biden. Joe doesn't know it but he can no longer perform the job and some friend should tell him in a soft quiet way. Letting someone go is not easy but often times necessary. Maybe his wife will be the one. I was undecided as to who my next choice would be but that was before Senator Warren said she was going to give me and my wife $200 a month. I'm in.

Saudi oil

The Saudi oil business was attacked and they lost one-half of their production. In years past this would have caused a severe spike in the price of oil but that is not likely to happen because of fracking. The US is now a net exporter of energy and and will soften the blow of the Saudi problem. All those 350,000 independent owner truck drivers in the US will not have to see diesel go to $4. That's called taking care of small business.

Guns and solutions

Sometimes logic is replaced by emotion especially when politics gets in the way. This has happened in the climate change issue and is now front and center in the gun issue. Here is some data. In 2017 there were 39,733 deaths by fire arms and 23,854 were suicides. There were 14,542 homicides mostly using hand guns and knives were used four times as often as rifles. According to the FBI, 1,604 people were killed by “knives and cutting instruments” and 374 were killed by “rifles” in 2016. This data does not distinguish between assault rifles and other types. The difference is an assault rifle is a rifle with a pistol grip. Some are suggesting that the solution is to get rid of rifles when data shows that hand guns are the biggest problem. Some of the more sensible solutions are to limit the magazine size on all guns and to have universal background checks with sales between family members exempted.

Special prosecutor appointment

In the run up to the 2016 election the FBI was conducting a counterintelligence investigation into the possibility of Russian influence in the election. The purpose was to first discover if there were any crimes committed and second to stop any such interference. Attorney General Jeff Session recused himself and Assistant Attorney General Rob Rosenstein took over. Rosenstein recommended that Trump fire FBI director James Comey and Trump did so on May 9th, 2017. A few days later Comey gave documents to a professor to give to the NY Times in the hopes of getting a special prosecutor to investigate Trump. Comey said that in a private conversation with Trump he was asked to go easy on his prosecution of General Flynn and this he felt was grounds for investigation. A few days later on May 17th, 2017 Rosenstein appointed his close friend Robert Mueller as special counsel to investigate allegations of Russian interference and herein lies a problem. The law specifically states that the special counsel can only be appointed to investigate a crime. At that time the FBI had not yet determined if a crime was committed so there was no crime to investigate. He should have waited for the FBI to complete their investigation. Mueller was going to investigate collusion but that is not a crime. In addition Mueller was a friend of Comey's and the law once again specifically states that would be a conflict of interest. The word friend is used in the law.

Innocent until

Innocent until proven guilty is a phrase often bantered about but the meaning is some what clouded by the way laws are enforced. A person charged with an offense could spend considerable time in jail while awaiting trial, a trail at which they may be found not guilty. Minnesota like 20 other states has a civil commitment law. There are convicted pedophiles who have served their time but are sent to another prison for crimes they may commit. In the news this week are something called Red Flag laws. These allow a person to go to a court and say another person is a danger to themselves or others and if the judge agrees the police will go to that persons home and demand that they give up their guns. This assumption of guilt is based on one persons opinion of another not on any evidence given in trial.

Wealth and fairness

The people who were center left have moved further left and the center is now shifted as seen in the popularity of the trend toward what used to be called socialist ideas. The impetus as always is the wealth gap. The promise to take money from the rich and give it to the poor is an alluring concept. The idea that these elites got their riches through nefarious means is promoted by some groups and this makes it more palatable to the point where many are okay with a wealth tax. The guiding principal behind this new form of economics called Modern Monetary Theory is fairness. If the country can spend trillions on endless undeclared wars, more trillions on quantitative easing to save the economy and trillions on the war on poverty while a select few become billionaires, then spending to spread the wealth around should be acceptable. It seems that they is a limitless supply of money and everyone should get their fair share. What's wrong with that? Sounds like utopia.

Open convention

In the 2016 election Clinton receive the majority of super delegates. According to NBC News’ latest count 4/11/2016, Clinton leads Sanders in superdelegates, 460-38. These are the establishment party regulars. This has changed and super delegates are no longer allowed to vote on the first ballot. Key words, first ballot. If the party insiders want to wield their power they need only make sure that no one is elected on the first ballot which means an open convention. Many experts predict this will happen and thus give the insiders the control to pick the candidate. This is a long shot since there has not been a brokered convention since Stevenson. The question is do they know who they want.

Excesses

Socialism is in the news today mostly referring to government involvement but there is another side to the issue that lies beneath the surface. Marx feared that capital would enslave labor and for most of history that is what happened. His plan was to foment revolution by pitting one group against another, the old house divided. The industrial revolution along with labor unions and labor laws changed that so the projections by Marx were discredited. The old division of labor and capital was replaced with economic classes but it soon included more than just money and became encapsulated in identity politics which led to good verses evil. The good were represented by minorities like people of color or people with different sexual preferences. The evil were their oppressors. This concept was institutionalized when equal opportunity was replaced with equal results. Where ever inequality exist it is assumed that one group is oppressing another group and they are as helpless as slaves under the masters. The masters are said to be racist, homophobic, xenophobic and other undesirable terms. The goal is an egalitarian society which is always the impetus of the new world order. All men are equal under the law is replaced by all men are equal. In today's world inequality is too extreme but the answer is not to throw out the whole system but to reign in excesses and create new better paying jobs.

Saving social security

6.2% of wages up to $134,000 are deducted for social security. 2.2% is used for survivor and disability benefits. The remaining 4% is for retirement and both are matched by the employer. A plan to save social security could start next year with all people age 50 or older excluded so there will be no changes when they retire. For others the full retirement age will be raised from 67 to 70. A person can still take a reduced benefit at 62. All people age 21 to age 50 will begin to privatize their benefit by having individual accounts where their 4% and their employers 4% will be deposited. There will be three investment options. Stocks, bonds and a government fixed interest account. The cap on wages of $134,000 will be eliminated and anyone with retirement income of over $200,000 will forfeit their benefit. This will take the onus off the government for future payments and allow those who die early to pass on their benefits. Right now the system favors white females over black males because of life expectancy and that discriminatory feature will be removed. All federal employees have had such a plan since 1984 and it has worked well for them.

UN and climate change

Here is news from the UN. Finally! Asia’s heavy and expanding reliance on coal power risks cancelling out global progress towards preventing catastrophic climate change, a top United Nations official warned on Wednesday.

Life in the USA

A number of the presidential candidates are suggesting that the ills in our society are the result of the unfairness inherent in capitalism. It is for certain that the free market picks winners and losers but often times losers become winners and vice versa. While there are many problems, life in the United States is as good as it gets. The facts are that the free market has brought billions out of poverty and the poor in America are living better than most people in the world. The standard of living in the United States today is the envy of most of the world and the place most people who want to relocate would choose.

Kennedy

When I was in college, I campaigned for Adlai Stevenson when he ran against Ike in 1956. My family were democrats like all of my neighbors and Stevenson got me a job when I was 14. He lost twice to Ike but in 1960 I worked for the Nixon campaign because I didn't think a millionaire like Kennedy could relate to the rest of us. As I look back the democratic party of Kennedy is a world away from the party today. Kennedy was pro military, for lower taxes and a believer in self reliance and being responsible for your own behavior. His policy of ask what you can do for your country appealed to my youthful liberal side. Many people my age not only took care of ourselves but also had to help out our parents and we were fine with that.

Gas for the world

Back in 2009 when President Obama injected $790 billion dollars into the economy it was supposed to result in a surge of green jobs. California led the way with promises of new jobs by creating a new green economy. As time passed and the jobs did not materialize the government stopped tabulating green jobs as did California where they found no discernible evidence that green firms were creating more jobs than non-green firms. This has not stopped the leading candidates from promising trillions of dollars of government spending will create millions of jobs. The only way to logically evaluate the green economy is to get the politics out of the way and when you do that things do not look promising. You only need to look at how the average persons lives to realize that they don't really care about green stuff. Their only interest is in talking about the political aspects. They see big pro-environmentalist like Obama and Gore building large homes on the beach and realize that the whole green deal has a political agenda. To truly impact the increase in CO2 the US should ship its large quantities of natural gas around the world while here at home begin changing over to natural gas for transportation.

Other countries

Recent surveys show that many countries around the world disapprove of America's position on issues. This is not surprising since Trump has pointed out that the European Union, Japan, China, South Korea, Mexico and Canada have unfair trade balances with the United States and Trump is determined to level the playing field. Trump has said that Germany, Japan and South Korea should pay more for the military protection the US is providing. Trump has demanded that NATO countries pay their fair share which they are not doing. Trump has questioned why the US is paying 25% of the United Nations expenses when there are 190 country members. He declined to enter the Trans Pacific Trade deal and refused to join the Paris Climate Agreement. He speaks to world leaders in ways that most consider unpresidential.

Black lives

This past week there was extensive news coverage on the Odessa, TX shooter who murdered 7 and injured 23. Meanwhile in Chicago last weekend 7 were murdered and 34 injured by various suspects. There was very little in the news about the Chicago killings probably because it is a regular occurrence as 40 are killed every month. Most of the Chicago murders are committed by Blacks and most times Blacks are the victims. A reasonable person might conclude that Black lives don't matter.

Ghost cities

When I studied economics and understood how building infrastructure could stimulate growth, I jokingly said a community could build a large concrete elephant and cause a local economic boom. Little did I know that some 20 years later China would do something close to that. Throughout China today are hundreds of large modern metropolitan areas called ghost cities. They contain high rise apartments, business sky scrapers, park and transportation facilities. What they lack is people. While they are slowly filling up the process has been painfully slow. One city described as poster child and the best example of the programs success is Mexi Lake City. Built in 1993 to accommodate 500,000 the population today is 100,000. After sitting their for 26 years it is in need of repair. Many of the other hundreds of cities are worse when it comes to having inhabitants. It is estimated that there are 63 million empty apartments throughout these cities not to mention the other facilities not be utilized. All of this infrastructure was debt financed and China's debt now exceed 300% of their GDP. By contrast USA debt is 105% of |GDP. This is just one more example of how difficult central planning can be in communist countries.

Millionaires and up

The world's richest one percent, those with more than one million in net worth own 45% of the world's wealth, which last year was $317 trillion. If this were shared equally among the world's 7.5 billion people each person would get $42,000. What would most people do with the money. Would they start new business and hire people. If the rich lost their money would they go out of business. Rich and poor only have three options with their money. They can spend it, save it or invest it. The rich have most of their money invested earning more money. The poor spend most of their money and those in between try to save a little. Do billionaires get up each day thinking of what they can buy next. Surveys show the these super rich have the best that money can buy but they spend most of their time working.