Musk

Much like Musk did in North Carolina, he is providing StarLink to Southern California. This allows the fire fighters to maintain communication with each other. He is also supplying power trucks to give power to homes while awaiting repair of power lines. He is doing this pro bono. He also did the same for Ukraine.

Population

The next time you read about some scientist making long term predictions consider the problem of population. For years the experts said the world was heading toward over population and that in fact it was threat to world stability. Fertility rates show the number of births per woman and 2.1 is necessary to maintain a population. This rate has been declining since 1970 when it was 4.5 and today it is 2.2 and is projected to reach 1.8 by 2050. The experts are now predicting a shortage of people. The problem is exacerbated by the fact that the older people are living longer and there are not enough young people to support them.

Hamas war

Fifteen months ago Hamas made a surprise attack on Israel and killed 1,200 people and took 250 hostages. These prisoners were kept in tunnels and many have died. Following this Hezbollah attacked Isreal from the north and Iran and The Houthis started shooting rockets into Israel. Israel retaliated and Hezbollah has been decapitated, Iran has had their air defense eliminated, Syria, the way Iran sent weapons to Hamas, has been defeated and the Israelis are currently destroying the Houthis. Now Hamas has asked for an end to the war. They will release 33 hostages in return for the return of 110 Palestinians with life sentences and 1,000 Gaza detainees from Oct 7. Isreal will remove its troops and allow humanitarian aid into Gaza.

Health

There are many articles written discussing the problem of the national debt pointing out that this represents a financial burden being passed on to our children and grand children. While this is true there is another problem of equal concern that receives very little attention and that has to do with health. There are many chemicals in the food supply that are harmful and need to be investigated and hopefully removed. Add to that the many drugs being handed out especially to children and the overall health of the population is in jeopardy. Six in 10 Americans have at least one chronic disease, and 4 in 10 have two or more chronic diseases. Many preventable chronic diseases are caused by a short list of risk behaviors including poor nutrition.

NATO

When Trump was last in office only 6 NATO countries were spending the required 2% of their budgets on defense. After being chided by Trump this rose to 23 of the 32 members which are now spending at least 2%. In Trump's second term this will be an issue and all NATO countries will have to spend more as the US will take a less active role in world defense. Some have suggested that Trump will ask these countries to increase their spending to the 3.5% that the US spends. Even with the large increases in defense spending by NATO countries in the last four years the total by NATO is $1.47 trillion and $1 trillion of that is from the US. When the war in Ukraine ends the European countries will realize they must be more responsible for their own defense and no longer rely so heavily on the US. Under Trump many other world organizations will have to depend more on countries other than the US for support. This includes groups like the UN, WHO, WTO and the world bank.

AI

Recent reports express concern about the AI race between the US and China but if past is prologue there is no real competition. It has been China's policy to steal intellectural property and not use R&D to develop their own new ideas. America leads the way in innovation in all areas and that is likely to continue in AI. The U.S. has the world’s most robust AI ecosystem and outperforms every other country by significant margins. 

Russian oil

Shortly after the Ukraine War started the West place a price cap on Russian oil of $60 per barrel. The idea was to keep Russian oil flowing to prevent rapid price hikes but still reduce oil revenue to Russia. On January 10 this year Biden increased sanctions on Russia oil which will reduce their exports which will cause the price to rise. In addition the sanctions would effect buyers like China and India by including them in sanctions if they purchase Russian oil. Russia has been exporting about one million barrels per day and that will be curtailed which means higher world prices. This is more added pressure on the US to max out oil exports but if the Saudis don't increase exports it means higher gas prices.

Income tax

It is common to hear certain politicians like Berney Sanders say that the rich must pay their fair share when referring to income tax. The total taxes collected in 2024 was $2.4 trillion and 54% or $1.3 trillion was from individual income tax. The top five percent paid $840 billion, the top 10% paid $975 billion and the top 25% paid $1.15 trillion. This leaves $115 billion for the bottom 75% and the bottom 50% paid zero tax. Even so the income gap is still widening. Two things in the news could have a significant effect on closing the gap. The first would be not renewing the Trump tax cuts. This would bring in an additional $450 billion per year and the second would be to increase the child tax cut from the present $1,750 to $5.000. If this is approved the average family of four would pay no income tax up to $120,000 of earnings. This means that 90% of working families would pay no income tax. This would cost the govenment about $300 billion per year but that would be more than offset by not renewing the Trump tax cuts. This would be a good start in reducing the income gap.

California

It appears that there will be many homes in California that need rebuilding after the fires. Many see this as a problem since the state has the reputation of having many regulations regarding home building. I have a friend who sold his home in MN in 1971 and moved to San Jose. He said it took him three years to complete his home, a house that he could have built in MN in less than half that time. Since then the number of regulations have increased and many think it will take longer than three years to build. Because of this complication with regs, many are considering moving out of California to either buy or rebuild.

DDT

Sometimes an opportunity presents itself to evaluate the long term effects of an environmental change. Case in point. In 1962 Rachel Carson wrote a book called "Silent Spring" in which she posed the argument that DDT spray was dangerous. In partial response the EPA was born and one of the first steps was to ban DDT. One of the bettern known uses of DDT was to spray US soldiers and that prevented many diseses including typus and malaria. WW2 was the first war in history where tyhpus did not kill more soldiers than war. When DDT was banned the West was not suffering from malaria so it was not a problem. The fact that it could prevent bird eggs from harm and thus saving many birds was a good trade off but in other parts of the world and in particular Africa malaria remained a killer. Each year a million people die from malaria something that could be prevented by spraying with DDT. Over the past years many studies have shown that the negative effects of DDT are minimal. Pressures on poor countries to ban the insecticide DDT because of fears that its use would harm the environment have led to a resurgence of malaria in the world, yet the environmental impact of its use are “negligible,” a study published this week has said.

Post election

During the last election campaign the democrats spent very little time talking about issues as their efforts were directed toward Trump as a person. It appears that this will continue in the post election period but with some emphasis on policy. Many democratic governors are opposed to deporting migrants even those who are criminals. They do not want to renew the Trump tax cuts and they seem intent on continuing the war in Ukraine. Many still feel Trump wants to take away the freedoms of LGBT people and many still support unpopular cultural ideas, things like men in womens lockers.

Trump

These past ten years represent an astounding series of events. It began in 2015 when Trump announced his candidacy for president. He was an outsider and knew he could not win with a normal campaign and it was his philosophy that any and all publicity was helpful. The press saw him as a joke with some putting him in the entertainment section. He was welcomed on the TV shows as they snickered behind his back as their ratings rose. He dominated the news everyday as his unconventional politically incorrect remarks caught the headlines. Then when Trump won the nomination putting down two dozen prominent republicans the press went into panic mode. They suddenly realized they had created a monster and everything changed. The press coverage became 90% negative while the democratic party swung into high gear using some irregular tactics like Trump/ Russia collusion. Silicon Valley, Hollywood, social media and never Trumpers joined forces but they were too little too late and Trump was elected president. Even after the election the press continued their battle against Trump which culminated in his first impeachment. His first term brought a booming economy, a secure border, law and order and no wars. He was sailing toward reelection when Covid hit and he shut down the economy. This led to changes in voting laws which drastically increased the early voting and the democrats took advantage and Biden got 16 million more votes than Hillary. Trump didn't understand the importance of early voting and assumed there was some illegal activities that led to the large vote count. Biden won and quickly set about reversing the Trump agenda and this combined with the government spending to combat Covid led to inflation which peaked at 9%. Biden left Afghinistan by withdrawing the troops before the people and leaving behind billions of dollars in equipment and his approval rating slipped into the low 40's and never recovered. Biden had run as a one term, interim president but when the red wave in the 2022 mid term elections did not materialize Biden decided to run for a second term. Then Trump announced his run for a second term. Once again the establishment came alive and joined forces against Trump. This time the Justice Department took the lead in what became known as lawfare and this resulted in four separated charges against Trump which led to a felony conviction. Along the way there were two assassination attempts on Trump's life including him getting shot in the ear but he prevailed and won in spite of a second impeachment. So what can we expect from his second term. He only has one term so he must act quickly. His goals are to secure the border, bring home the industrial base, end the war in Ukraine, reignite the Abraham Accords, end the new green deal. His success will depend on the new factories using AI to increase productivity to offset inflation.

Migrant crossings

The way the Biden administration handled the border has been a mystery to many since the beginning when all of Trumps policies were dumped. During his first day in office, Biden unveiled the U.S. Citizenship Act of 2021 and reversed many of Trump's policies on immigration For most of his term Biden maintained he needed congress to help him control the border but in June 2024 when the polls showed the border to be an important campaign issue he took action. Department of Homeland Security officials credit the rules the Biden administration implemented on June 4 that deny asylum to migrants who enter the U.S. illegally and require asylum-seekers to request an interview at a designated port of entry using the CBP One app. Beginning in July the number of crossings have been reduced to 50,000 per month far below the 200,000 plus average during his term. The first question that comes up is why didn't Biden take this action earlier but a more basic question is why didn't he just leave the Trump policies in force. Another problem that hurt the reelection was the $5 trillion dollars in checks that were sent out during Covid which led to inflation. Without these two issues Biden would have been reelected. Many consider these unforced errors.

Hush money

Trump is facing sentencing today regarding the hush money trial. In 2006 Trump was accused of having an affair with Stormy Daniels which he denied. His lawyer paid Miss Daniels $130,000 to secure her silence on the issue as it was brought into public attention just before his 2016 election. When Trump repaid his attorney the money was recorded as a legal expense. This hush payment is a misdemeanor but the district attorney claimed that Trump called this a legal expense to cover up another crime which was a felony. The other crime was a scheme to illegally influence the 2016 election through the hush money payment. It resulted in 34 counts as follows, 11 for invoices on legal services, 11 on checks paid for illegal services and 12 for leger entries for legal expenses. The attempt to influence the election is based on the January 6 riot at the Capital building. The judge just gave his sentence of unconditional discharge which means a crime was committed but no punishment is given.

Fish

California is in the news because of fires and they don't have enough water to put out the fires. There are a number of reasons for this but one is a small fish called the Delta Smelt. The presence of the Delta Smelt fish in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta has significantly limited the amount of water available to California farmers, as regulations aimed at protecting the endangered fish species often restrict water diversions, leading to a major point of contention in the state's water rights debate; essentially, more water needs to be left in the Delta for the fish, which means less water for agricultural use. The bureaucracy has too much power. The EPA is responsible for this policy of saving the fish.

Free speech

When Rush Limbaugh came on the air in the 80's a common refrain from listeners was you are saying things that I always thought but didn't want to say or sometimes scared to say. A similar thing is happening today after Trump spent 8 years being politically incorrect and now people are starting to express how they feel. They are less afraid of being sanctioned or worse ridiculed for their feelings. It's now ok to say that Blacks commit a disproportionate number of crimes without fear of being labeled a racist. Even the comedians are awakening.

Tax credits

The average cost of solar panels for a house is $25,000. The government offers a 30% tax credit which means a savings of $7,500. In order to qualify you must owe that much in tax. For a family of four this means income of $110,000. This eliminates 65% of all taxpayers and this is the low and middle income people. The tax credit on an EV is $7,500 and the average family must earn $110,000 to qualify. The recently passed but improperly name Inflation Reduction Act provides tax incentives for manufacturers of wind and solar projects. Without government incentives there would be no solar panel or windmill companies in the US. More than 500 companies and 45,500 projects have requested registration for clean energy tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act as of March 8, according to a tally from the Treasury Department. Why so many. The act allows for these companies to sell their tax credits to other companies. This opens the door to misuse. Here is how companies who owe no taxes can still get the credits. First Solar, the biggest U.S.-based manufacturer of solar panels, has entered into two deals to sell up to $700 million worth of tax credits. When it comes to the Green New Deal the government is encouaging the development of wind and solar companies without ever mentioning the destruction to the environment caused by the mining, processing and disposal of the materials needed for this industry. The people are only receiving part of the story.

SMR

US military project PELE is the first use of small nuclear reaators to provide power to field units. They use small fuel pellets containing uraniums 235 enriched up to 20% and are schuled for service next year. These are one to 20 megawatt reactors that can be easily moved around. This along with small reactors to power data centers is just more evidence that nuclear is the future.

Syria

Now that Syria is wide open for any and all terror groups it is time to review the 1980's war between Irna and Iraq when the West sent WMD to Iraq and he used them on the Iranian troops. Here is a partial list of WMD given to Iraq during the 80’s and 90’s. About 100 tons of mustard gas also came from Brazil.] The non-profit American Type Culture Collection and the Centers for Disease Control sold or sent biological samples of anthrax, West Nile virus and botulism to Iraq up until 1989 the Iraqi military settled on the American Type Culture Collection strain 14578 as the exclusive anthrax strain for use as a biological weapon, according to Charles Duelfer.[31]The British government also financed a chlorine factory that was intended to be used for manufacturing mustard gas.[33]Singapore gave 4,515 tons of precursors for VX, sarin, tabun, and mustard gases to Iraq. The Dutch gave 4,261 tons of precursors for sarin, tabun, mustard, and tear gases to Iraq. Egypt gave 2,400 tons of tabun and sarin precursors to Iraq and 28,500 tons of weapons designed for carrying chemical munitions. India gave 2,343 tons of precursors to VX, tabun, Sarin, and mustard gases. Luxembourg gave Iraq 650 tons of mustard gas precursors. Spain gave Iraq 57,500 munitions designed for carrying chemical weapons. In addition, they provided reactors, condensers, columns and tanks for Iraq’s chemical warfare program, 4.4% of the international sales. China provided 45,000 munitions designed for chemical warfare. Portugal provided yellowcake between 1980 and 1982. Niger provided yellowcake in 1981.[34] When the US went after Saddam they asked where are the WMD when the question should have been where did they go. The conclusion was that Saddam buried them in the desert in Syria. Are they now there just waiting to be found.

Lawfare

The word lawfare came into use during the Trump campaign. It has its origins in the election of Alvin Bragg who was elected NY district attorney in 2021 with the promise he would go after Trump.There was a charge in 2006 that Trump paid off a women named Stormy Daniels but the case had been in limbo for years. The federal authorities in NY passed on the case, then Federal Election Committee passed on the case and finally Braggs own office passed. Then in 2022 just after the midterms Biden was asked what he was going to do about Trump running for president and he said he would use what ever means allowed under the constitution to prevent that. His people said that was not related to the Bragg case. Two weeks later Jack Smith is appointed special counsel. The same day Nathen Wade Atlanta attorney meets for 8 hours in the White House. Then a federal attorney quits and goes to work for Bragg. This is a job with lesser pay and responsibility. Two months later the case is brought before the grand jury. Bragg then makes some adjustments in the law changing the charge from a misdemeanor to a felony and the jury charges Trump.

Pledge

VP Harris has come under attack for bumbling the words to the Pledge Of Allegiance. I forgive her because I do the same thing. In school when we say the pledge I get messed up because when I was in school the words, Under God, were not in the pledge so I learned without those words. Now I am never sure whether they go befor or after indivisable.

War end

As Trump prepares to take office he has received a welcomed gift from Israel. The Jews have now put Iran in a box having defanged Hezbollah, help to end the Assad regime, neutrallized Hamas and quieted the civil war in Yeman. This gives Trump the opportunity to seek out a peaceful end to the war in Ukraine. The majority of Ukrainians want to end the war and it is being championed by western interest. When this is over Europe can once again receive cheap natural gas from Russia which will help the people of Europe and keep the country from economic recession. Grain exports from Russia and Ukraine will once again fill the world markets keeping food prices down. With proper deplomacy Russia can be brought into the West and both sides will win.

Iran

Here is news from Axios today White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan presented President Biden with options for a potential U.S. attack on Iran's nuclear facilities if the Iranians move towards a nuclear weapon before Jan. 20, in a meeting several weeks ago that remained secret until now, three sources with knowledge of the issue tell Axios. The generals are getting nervous if the war in Ukriane comes to an end.

Mining

Tesla began operating a lithium plant in Texas on December 15, 2024 and will produce enough for a million cars per year. It uses the latest techniques and is environmentally clean. This is the first plant in the US to produce lithium. This could be a model for mining and processing here in the US to reduce dependency on imports.

College

Back in the day not many went to college but most were encouraged to do so. In the 1950's only 8% went to college but today that that number is 38%. Times have changed and today not everyone is destine for college but the question arises as to who should go. Anyone seeking a PhD should go along with those who desire to be teachers. In addition those looking for careers in science, engineering, medicine and law. For others it depends on their financial situation. If they have the money they can go just fot the experience while they grow up but for others they should consider job opportunities. They have to do a cost benefit determination. Is it worth it to spend $100,000 over four years when you could be earning a $100,000. Also there is a big demand for people with other skills, things like the trades. Many can make a decent living working in retail. Point is that it is no longer the case that everyone should go to college. The old rule applies of find something you enjoy and go for it.

Change

The path toward globalization began as WW 2 came to an end and the US guaranteed the safety of the seas which allowed free and open trade. It started slow but built up steam as can be seen by the US trade deficit with China which was $95 million in 1972, $6 billion in 1985 and $385 billion in 2022. During this same time period the wealth gap grew rapidly. Those at the bottom saw their wealth go from $23 in debt to $450. The middle income groups went from $50,000 to $200,000. Those near the top saw growth going from $300,000 to $2 million while the very top went from $2million to $14 million. During this time the US lost 6 million manufacturing jobs as 70,000 businesses closed. In 1970 corporate profits were $200 billion rising to 18,000 billion by 2023. To recap working people saw their wealth increase four fold while the super rich increased 90 fold. This is why the establishment wants to stay the course but the country is ready to change. The rich and powerful do not want to upset the apple cart but like it or not that is about to happen. The bureaucracy that has been growing in power and protecting the top will now be challanged. The more educated, including the press, along with those in power will oppose any change. The battle lines are set. If it weren't for politics this change would be a no brainer but that is not the case.

Afghanistan

Sometimes it's helpful to look back in recent history to see if there are any valuable lessons to be learned. Case in point is Afghanistan. The US went into Afghanistan to remove the Taliban. After 20 years when 2,500 American soldiers died, 21,000 wounded and at a cost of $2 trillion dollars the US left and put the Taliban back in power while leaving $80 billion dollars in military equipment behind. What can be learned from this experience as we enter the third year in Ukraine having spent $180 billion dollars and destroyed a good portion of the country while killing off 14,000 Ukrainian soldiers.

Social security part 3

Starting January 1, 2026 every one who turns 25 years old will have their social security money invested in a private account similar to the federal employees saving account (TSP). Every year there after all people on their 25th birthday will be automatically enrolled in the TSP. This money like social security must be withheld and cannot be touched for any reason until age 62 or later. At that time they can withdraw all or part of the fund or allow it to remain and just live off the interest. The government will have been relieved of the responsibility of financing social security and there will no longer be any discrimination against Blacks. For most people this will mean a large transfer of wealth from one generation to another and in time could build up to a sizable estate.

Social security part 2

Social security withholds 6.2% of your salary and this is matched by your employer. Of this amount 2.2% is used to cover the cost of disability and survivor benefits leaving the remaining 4% to invest. If a 25 year old person earning $40,000 per year invested this 4% plus the 4% from his employer in a private plan he could do better than social security. Federal employees have had a savings plan since 1984 called the TSP that has five savings options including mutual funds and bond funds. The stock market over the past 120 years has averaged 10% annual return. If the 25 year old earning $40,000 got a 3% annual raise and invested 8% of his salary at 10% he would have $2.7 million by age 62. Investing this at 2% would give him the equivalent of what his social security benefit would be and upon his death his family would receive the $2.7 million.

Social security part one more to follow

There are a number of reasons why social security needs to be reformed and one important reason is rarely discussed, that being, it discriminates against Blacks and in particular Black males. A Black male at age 62 can expect to live 10.8 years while a White female age 62 will live for 22.9 years. A 25 year old person earning $40,000 per year can expect to get a social security benefit of $4,600 per month at age 62. This means the White female will collect $1.26 million while the Black male will collect $586,000. This discriminatory practice can be eliminated by privatizing social secuity.

Education

The democratic party was already trending toward college grads during the Obama years Career and technical education may be facing deep financial cuts. A proposed federal budget could mean as much as a 20 percent reduction to funding for vocational programs in 2012, according to the New York Times. Obama instead seeks to increase funding for overall education by 11 percent. The Times reports that these proposed cuts are a step toward the president’s goal of raising academic standards and ultimately have the highest share of college graduates of any other nation by 2020.

States rights

Which side of the issue of states rights a person is on depends more on politics than on the constitution. Conservatives rallied for states rights on the abortion issue while democrats want states rights on immigration.