Germany

In 1933 when Hitler came to power, Germany was in a deep economic slump with 40% unemployment and many who were working were on part time jobs. The Versailles Treaty that ended WW 1 had left Germany deep in debt. This is a story of what can happen to a country whose only asset is a well trained and well educated populous. Hitler saw war as a way to gain power and grow the economy. The Treaty forbade Germany from having an Air Force or Navy and only a 100,000 man army. Hitler was aware of the skilled people and natural resource like iron and coal but he needed money. Thus the MEFO bill was invented. It was a promissory note used for a system of deferred payment to finance rearmament. These bills were not the official currency of the state but they were trusted and used as currency. This allowed Hitler to start the process of building a military. It also provided jobs and once the people were employed they used their natural desire to get ahead to grow the economy. Six years later Hitler was ready to start WW 2. The GDP increased from $60 billion in 1933 to $110 billion in 1939. In 1939 the Germans not only had a fully armed Air Force and Navy the Army had grown from 100,000 in 1933 to 3 million in 1939 and to 12 million by 1944. Blitzkrieg was born and in 7 months Hitler marched into Paris. Only England stood in the way of Hitler domination of Europe. The defense spending increased from one percent to 21 percent in 7 years and the country was at full employment. Something similar is happening in Russia today.

Harris

The latest rumor floating around is that Biden will step down before the August convention for health reasons and Gavin Newsom will come forward as the Biden replacement. The problem with dumping VP Harris, a Black female for a White male, will be overcome by offering her the governor's job in California with the prospect of replacing Newsom in eight years. She would be 67 and have eight years of being governor under her belt. One of the most important skills needed by a president is administrative experience. You don't get that as a congressperson because the buck stops with 435 people and you don't get that as a senator where there are 100 members. You get that as governor or mayor or CEO of a large company or even as president of a large university.

Strategy

Yesterday two items made the news that were overshadowed by the verdict in the Trump trial. First Mrs Biden said the upcoming election is a choice between good and evil which adds to the charges that Trump is Hitler and will end democracy. This has been a persistent theme since asking if you are better off than you were four years ago is not deemed good for the Biden campaign. The second was Joe on Morning Joe saying a victory in November depends on the democratic ground game. This has been part of the two part strategy to win from the start. Demonize Trump and harvest votes. There is little talk abut Biden's achievements and even less about the country when Trump was president. It remains to be seen how the country reacts to Trumps conviction and how well the republicans have picked up on the harvest game. National Republican Committee Chair Lara Trump has pledged: After years of railing against the practice of collecting and delivering other voters’ ballots, Republicans are vowing to mount their own “ballot harvesting” operation ahead of the 2024 presidential election.

Gasoline

The Biden administration announced it is releasing one million barrels of gasoline from the strategic reserves to offset the rising price of gasoline. While this makes headline news it should be noted that the US uses 9 million barrels per day so this would be enough to last 2.7 hours. Don't expect this to have much effect on the price at the pump.

Mortgages

The mortgage crisis of 2008 has come and gone leaving 324 small fish charged with crimes but not one of the big banks or their executives were charged. As a review recall that the Fair Housing Act of 1968 was designed to stop "red lining", a process of declining mortgage loans to applicants who lived in particular areas. This allowed the government to curb any discrimination in the issuing of home mortgage loans. Things went along okay until the 90's when Clinton followed by Bush decided that the American Dream of home ownership should be available to everyone. Requirements for loans were eased starting first with smaller incomes and assets culminating in what was called NINJA loans. No income, no job and no assets. As these local loans made their way to the Big Banks, the loan inspectors realizing that these loans did not meet the standards of the bank, notified those in charge but nothing was done. The bubble was growing and everyone was making money. The lenders, the real estate developers, the contractors and city real estate taxes rose dramatically. The government kept interest rates low and Wall Street worked with politicians to keep thing growing. In early 2006 Richard Bower, the man responsible for the $90 billion in mortgage loans at CITI Bank began to notify his superiors concerning loans that did not meet the banks standards. The number of loans outside of compliance was 60% in 2006 and 80% in 2007 but still no response from upper management. CITI Bank sold these mortgages to others saying they did meet the companies guidelines. After sending many e-mails to the top officials, including the top dog Robert Rubin, over a period of two years, on Feb 2008 Bower was put on leave and told not to come back to the bank. A few months later in November CITI Bank got a $45 billion dollar bailout from the Feds. Early in 2009 Rubin resigned and left with $17 million in cash and $33 million in stock options. Rubin exposes the problem of revolving doors. He started with Goldman Sachs then Treasury Secretary then to CITI group. Today he serves as chairman for the Council on Foreign Relations.

Bildenberg

One of the lesser known grand conspiracies centers around the Bildenberg Group. Since its inaugural meeting in 1954 they have met each year at different locations. About 130 leaders and experts from industry, finance, labor, academia, media and politicians from Europe and America get together to discuss major issues of the day. The meetings are private and thus foster a conspiracy. Those who do not trust this group suggest they were instrumental in creating the global economy which blossomed for 40 years and increased the wealth of the rich and powerful. In the pre war years of the last century the wealthiest one tenth of one percent owned 25% of all the wealth. During and after WW2 that began to drop and ended up at 10% in 1950. Since then, the super rich have move back up to 25%. Globalization has been good for this group at the expense of the low to middle income groups. Much of this increase occurred in the last 20 years. When the income gap becomes high enough ordinary citizens use their political power to change the system. This change started in 1991 when the Soviet Union fell and increased in intensity with the Trump election. Make America Great Again meant to many power to the people. Working people finally woke up to the fact that while the rich were getting richer they had to settle for the loss of good paying jobs and incomes that could not keep up with inflation. Many of these voters are still upset and want more change.

Soviets

When President Reagan took office in January 1981 the cold war was in full swing. The idea of mutually assured destruction (MAD) was seen by Reagan as ludicrous and he set about to develop a different approach. He met with scientist who told him that a defensive ring of satellites could be set up to intercept Russian missiles and he started the program which was derisively called Star Wars. The Soviets had been in a arms race with the US and it was slowly bringing their economy down. When Reagan announces his intentions along with additional defense spending the Soviets knew they could not compete. This was step one of Reagan's plan to destroy the Soviet Union. A short time later workers at a Polish shipyard revolted and Reagan saw an opening. US labor unions were sympathetic to the Polish workers and Reagan went to Rome to meet with the Polish born pope. He confided with the Pope his desire to help the Polish workers and the CIA set up secret plans to help the workers. The next step required the US to place restrictions on technology going to the Soviets. The Russians who where dependent on oil exports needed to build a pipeline but they needed Western engineers to help. Reagan working secretly persuaded other Western countries not to provide the needed engineers. Finally Reagan persuaded the Saudis to increase the world supply of oil to bring down the price and this further damaged the Soviet economy. These measures set the stage for the ultimate collapse of the Soviet Union.

Libya

In 2003 Moammar Gaddafi was toasted by the West for repudiating terrorism and ending his missile and nuclear programs. When the Arab Spring broke out in 2011 civil unrest appeared in Libya and Gaddafi used force to quell riots in his country. US political figures led by Hillary Clinton declared Gaddafi would massacre his people. Stories flooded the press around the world fearing the a genocide was about to take place. Many dissidents living in the West promoted stories about the terrible things happening in Libya and the press went with these stories. The result was that Obama, who campaigned with a promise of not attacking a Muslim country went along and took out Gaddafi. Hillary Clinton and her two associates Samanth Power and Susan Rice decided that something must be done to protect the Libyan people. They used the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) policy that the UN set up after the massacre in Rwanda. Instead of a thorough investigation of the situation they accepted the news reports and convinced Obama to attack Libya. This is conviction and punishment without a trial. What is happening is that states are creating ripe conditions where killing, evil or inconvenient adversaries becomes a likely and predictable outcome. Later reports came out saying the the conditions in Libya were exaggerated. Obama later admitted this was his biggest mistake not taking into account what would happen to Libya after Gaddafi.

Dossier

Many people wondered how the response to the 9/11 attack moved the US attack from Afghanistan to Iraq. The pro war hawks in the US promoted this idea to Bush but he balked. Later they gave him a hastily prepared 75 page report indicating that Saddam had WMD. This report was cleaned up to 25 pages and presented to Bush and the congress. The report changed unconfirmed status of WMD to a most likely confirmation of WMD. Next a classified dossier supposedly prepared by Italy's spy chief Enzo Bianco stated that yellow cake from Niger was sent to Iraq. Yellow cake is uranium oxide. In 2005 Bianco denied that he had anything to do with the dossier. In 2015 documents were released by the US government confirming that the dossier was false. This story sounds frightening familiar. It was the false information in the Steele dossier that convinced the government to investigate the Trump/Russia collusion. These sorts of schemes required the cooperation of many people in several government agencies what accused conspiracy theorist call the deep state. Since the president, the congress and the press all went along with the Iraq invasion it is difficult for them to investigate after the fact so their mistakes are left alone. This is the same reason why the press will not investigate the lies spread by the Steele dossier.

Nuclear

It is time to solve the problem of climate change and it comes in two steps. The first is short term. Continue to replace coal fired power plants with natural gas. This has resulted in reducing CO2 over the past 50 years. Move to replace gasoline in cars and small trucks with natural gas. Stop putting up charging stations for EV's and start putting natural gas in gas stations. This will result in a 20% reduction in CO2 emissions. Government to pay a $500 subsidy to home owners to install a pump to fill their cars with natural gas at home. This is only for those who use natural gas for home heating. The second is long term. The government has spent $1.34 trillion subsidizing clean energy since 2020. This money should be spent promoting small nuclear reactors using thorium. These will be made on an assembly line and transported to the use site. This takes pressure off the grid and reduces the need for transmission lines. A one megawatt reactor can be transported on a semi truck and ten of these equals the power of the typical power plant. This is enough to power a city of one million people. 25 of these units would be placed strategically around Minneapolis and operated by the manufacturer which would sell the power to the city. As the need for power increases more units are installed. Large manufacturing facilities would have their own nuclear power unit. When all the current electric power needs are met other units would be installed across the country to produce hydrogen by electrolysis of water and this fuel would begin to replace natural gas for both power plant and transportation. To replace diesel and jet fuel the hydrogen would be combined with CO2 extracted from the air and returned to the air when the fuel is used. The final step is to use small nuclear reactors to desalt sea water which will be piped to various desert type areas to grow crops. Instead of oil and natural gas pipeline criss-crossing the county there will be water lines. Thorium produces far less waste than uranium and can use up stored nuclear waste. One pound of thorium produces the same amount of energy as 3.5 million pounds of coal. No more CO2, no more air pollution with heavy metals like mercury and lead and no more acid rain. No pollution from the mining, processing and recycling of rare earths and metals like copper, zinc and lithium to produce wind mills, solar panels and EV's. Some day in the distant future all thorium power plants will be replaced with fusion which is how the sun makes energy.

Attack

Can people learn from the past is a question often asked. In the 1930's while Hitler was coming to power in Germany, Japan was also looking to expand into new countries. Japanese forces moved into China and later the Philippians. In response the US, the main supplier of oil, steel and iron, cut off supplies to Japan. The US should have expected Japan to retaliate but they did not. In the weeks leading up to Pearl Harbor 83 messages from Japan's Admiral Yamamoto were intercepted that were describing the attack on Pearl Harbor but nothing was done. In May of 2001 Cofer Black, chief of CIA counterterrorism center said, it was very evident that we were going to be struck, we were going to be struck hard and lots of Americans were going to die. “Bin Laden Determined to Strike in U.S.” The CIA’s famous Presidential Daily Brief, presented to George W. Bush on August 6, 2001. Once again nothing was done. Today we await an attack from within the country from some terror group. Millions of got a ways have entered the country illegally and the government knows little about them or where they are. The FBI Chief Wray says there are imminent threats. Will the country once again wait until after the attack to take action

1967

For many years Palestinians and Israelis have stated that they would accept a two-state solution based on the 1967 borders. Note that says Palestinians not Hamas. Since its creation in 1987, Hamas has invoked militant interpretations of Islam to spearhead a Sunni extremist movement committed to destroying Israel. This is from the preamble to the Hamas constitution. "Israel will exist and will continue to exist until Islam obliterates it, just as ti obliterated others before it.". Because of the recent war Hamas has now changed its view. A top Hamas political official told the Associated Press the Islamic militant group is willing to agree to a truce of five years or more with Israel and that it would lay down its weapons and convert into a political party if an independent Palestinian state is established along pre-1967 borders. This is an opening for a negotiation.

Court

For all those who are upset with the loss of Roe v Wade take heart. It took the pro lifers 50 years to change the law and it may take many years to change it back. The two oldest Justices are Samuel Alito age 74 and Clarence Thomas age 75. It is likely that sometime in the next 8 years they will both retire or die. This means that the democrats must have the White House and the Senate to reverse Dobbs. Roberts and Sotomayor are both 69 and that would be the next chance for change. Meanwhile states will decide how to deal with the abortion issue. As time passes and states make these changes it may become more difficult for the Supreme Court to over rule. In 1953 Eisenhower appointed Earl Warren as chief justice and thus began 16 year period of a liberal court. The liberals were Brennan, Goldberg, Fortes and Marshall along with Warren. In 1969 the Burger court took control until 1986 with Rehnquist, Powell, Blackmun and Scalia joining Burger. In 1987 Rehnquist replace Burger and the court was considered more conservative. Next in 2005 Roberts replaced Rehnquist and the court was considered more conservative. Roberts, Alito, Thomas, Kennedy and Scalia were considered conservative although Kennedy sometimes strayed. Today's court is more conservative with six right leaning justices. The question remains that if the court has been conservative since 1987 why did it take so long to reverse Roe.

Pandemic

As the time passes from the peak of the pandemic more and more conflicting information is coming forth. This leads to problems as how to prepare for the next pandemic. The dispute between the origins of the virus continue with one side claiming it came from a lab and the other side saying it came from an animal. Is the vaccine more effective than natural immunity. Is a combination of both the best. Can vaccinated people spread the disease. Will the vaccine prevent the disease. Is social distancing effective. Are paper masks effective. Should people be quarantined. Should businesses and schools be closed. Should travel be curtailed. Should vaccines be used only for highly susceptible groups. In the more controversial areas should the government shut down information deemed to be misinformation. Should people who refuse the vaccine lose their jobs. Should people who refuse to wear a mask be banned from public areas. Here is a quote from the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC). Trust in scientific institutions has taken a huge hit. The whole strength of science is that people who have different ideological bents can do experiments, transcend their prior beliefs and try to build a foundation of facts. Now we have whole groups of people who don't believe that. In the case of the pandemic ideology got in the way of science. Without investigating people chose sides and even today that is interfering with finding solutions.

Youth

Young people often don't know what to do with their lives. I suggest you find something you like to do and you're good at and go that way. If you are not good at it find something you like to do and get good at it. If you still don't know what you want then start doing something and change jobs until you find your spot. This will come but not necessarily right away. Be patient and keep your eyes open. You will be pleasantly surprise when you find your job. Work takes up almost a third of your life and when you are happy at work you will be on your way to being happy when you're not at work. As long as you have your good health the sky is the limit.

Election

What does the situation look like six months out from the election. First off, no matter who is elected, the economy will experience rapid growth with full employment and high inflation. The new facilities from industrial expansion as a result of reshoring will be designed with efficiency in mind and helped along with AI will increase productivity which will off set some of the wage/price inflation. If Trump is elected he will negotiate a peace in Ukraine giving up Crimea, Donbas and a promise not to allow Ukraine into NATO. On immigration he will re institute the remain in Mexico policy, get rid of catch and release, force Mexico to close their border with Guatemala, deport illegals matching the three million that Obama deported and build the wall. On abortion he will not sign a national ban leaving decisions up to the states as the Supreme Court has ruled and his personal belief is abortions should be allowed in the first 15 weeks and later only the case of the life of the mother, rape and incest. On the issue of crime he will put pressure on states to enforce bail laws, encourage DA's to incarcerate repeat offenders and put more police into high crime areas like the inner cities. Trump will continue the policy of drilling on public land, in Alaska and off shore in the Gulf. Biden initially closed off these areas but later re opened them. Trump will push to keep men out of women's sports and to stop gender changing treatments on minors. Trump will follow the Supreme Court rules and not pay off student loans. Trump will make a deal with Saudi Arabia to offer protection for their entry into the Abraham Accords, which will allow them to join United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco as allies with Israel. He will re institute the sanctions against Iran and get out of the Paris climate agreement. Trump will continue the policy he started when he approved $1.35 billion for the building of the first US small scale nuclear power project. Trump will continue his strong support for Israel as he did when he recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and moved the US embassy from Tel Aviv. Trump will continue to demand that NATO countries pay their fair share and start building up their own defenses instead of depending on the US for protection. Trump will continue his get tough on China policy which was kept in place and added to by Biden.

WNBA

The entry of Caitlin Clark into the WNBA will have an effect similar to when Tiger Woods entered the PGA. When Woods started in 1996 the average winners check was $406,000 but seven years later this was up to $970,000. He brought a new excitement to the game as will Clark which means larger TV audiences and more publicity for the league. The money will follow.

NFL

One of the more interesting aspects of the controversy surrounding NFL player Harrison Butker's commencement speech is the reaction from the NFL. They have a DEI department dedicated to hiring more women and minorities. The assumption is that it is only for non payer positions. When it comes to the players equity goes out the window. To play in the NFL you must be at the very top of your profession as only the best qualified can make the team. It is the ultimate meritocracy. As soon as your performance drops you are gone. This holds true for coaches as well as players. It is not likely that the DEI department will start demanding more diverse players with lesser skills.

Race

President Biden's speech at Morehouse College had a hint of CRT. He spoke of the problems facing the Black community but let out the successes in fighting racism. He said, It's natural to wonder if democracy you hear about actually works for you' What is democracy if Black men are being killed in the street. What is democracy if a trail of broken promises still leave Black communities behind. What is democracy if you have to be 10 times better than anyone else to get a fair shot. And most of all, what does it mean, as we've heard before, to be a Black man who loves his country even if it doesn't love him back in equal measure. To be fair this should have been followed up with examples of the progress the country has made in fighting racism. He could have mentioned the Civil Rights Act, affirmative action, and Brown v Board. He could have pointed out that in 1950 only 13% of Blacks graduated from college and today it's 40%. In 1972 there were 187,000 Black owned businesses and in 2012 there were 2,500,000. Telling only part of the story increases tension between races instead of uniting people.

Reshoring

When people talk about threats to our way of life they speak of climate change, end of democracy, White supremacy, run away inflation, national debt and each of these groups has their constituencies. One area rarely discussed is income inequality. Money leads to power. Power corrupts. Concentration of power corrupts more. The top one percent of people own as much wealth as the bottom 99% and the gap widens each year. The world's five richest men have more than doubled their fortunes since 2020 rising from $405 billion to $869 billion. Dividing the country by race has been replace by dividing by class and in the world class means income. The phrase middle class means middle income. The driving force in income disparity has been globalization. It moved good paying union jobs to poor countries where there were no environmental rules, no safe working rules and no unions. Many of these use child labor and even slave labor. This meant huge profits for large corporations. Since the mid 1990's the richest 10% of the world's population has accumulated more than three quarters of all wealth generated,while the poorest half got only 2%. As globalization slows and is replaced by bringing jobs back home (reshoring) there is an opportunity to close the income gap. The US will double its industrial base over the next ten years and this can mean good high paying jobs. It means all sorts of construction work along with technicians working in the plants. These positions require workers who are literate and can learn on the job. Some will receive training at tech colleges and others will be recruited right out of high school and trained at work.

Homemaker

A pro football player gave the commencement address at a small Catholic college and caused an uproar because he talked about women being homemakers. At the local high school there are about 100 female teachers which means they are all college graduates. If after they pursued their teaching careers for a few years and then married a man who owned his own company and was earning several million dollars per year, would that affect their future careers. When these young women had their first child would they put the baby in child care and continue teaching or would they stay at home and care for the baby. How would they handled additional children. Would they view being a homemaker as somehow less than being a career woman. Would some be thankful that they had the financial resources to be stay at home moms. This football player talked about his wife being a homemaker but that was interpreted by some to mean that he felt all mothers should stay at home. A woman's choice of a working career or a home career is often determine by economics. The point should be that women are allowed to choose their career just like men are and one option should not be considered less than another.

Debates

The political divide in the country is often reported but once in a while a perfect example presents itself and that happened this week. President Biden announce he will debate former President Trump but he added some restrictions like no audience, cut off mikes and no third party candidates. On Fox News they said that Biden agreed to the debates because his poll numbers we so low, that he was desperate. On Morning Joe today Joe said Trump agreed to all the restrictions because he was desperate for debates. Since both candidates are desperate it is probably best that they have the debates. Finally agreement.

Climate

President Biden said that climate change is a bigger threat to humanity than nuclear war. He promised to end fossil fuels. There has not been much coverage about the climate change issue since the US is now producing more oil and natural gas than anytime in history. In addition coal exports have reached record highs. As President, I have a responsibility to act with urgency and resolve when our nation faces clear and present danger. And that's what climate change is about. July 2022. President has announced a number of actions designed to move away from fossil fuels but these actions have not had the desired effect. Global oil demand reached an all time high of 103 million b/d in June 2023. Despite Russia's lower exports to Europe, natural gas production has reached all time highs. World coal consumption increased to record levels. The people are reacting much like government when it comes to climate change. They are still building big houses in the suburbs and commuting in their SUV's. Their garage is full of law care equipment, recreational vehicles and water thirsty lawns. Many have a second home or a lake cabin where the same equipment is needed along with a boat. People do not like electric cars nor do they like public transportation. Both the people and the government talk a good game when it comes to climate but actions is missing. The coverage of climate change has quieted down since Biden took office but many expect that if Trump is elected this will change and once again climate will be in the news. This illustrates the political aspect of climate change.

War

President Biden was facing a conundrum with the arms to Israel ship so he reached a compromise. He will send the first billion plus which includes $700 million for tank ammunition, $500 million for tactical vehicles and $60 million in mortar rounds. To compromise he will not send 2,000 pound bombs. Setting up procedures not to kill certain groups is the way war has been carried out in recent years. One of the most extreme examples was during the Gulf War when caravans of trucks carrying Iraqi oil to Turkey were not bombed for fear of killing the drivers. Also in that war there was a chance to bomb Saddam in house in a neighborhood so they used a 2,000 pound bomb filled with cement instead of explosives. It turned out that Saddam was not in the house.

Election

The democrats want to make the upcoming campaign about Trump and not about Trump's policies. The old cry of are you better off than you were four years ago is never mentioned. The reasons are simple. Under Trump you had 1.4% inflation, 2% 30 year mortgages, $2 gas, secure borders, low crime, energy independence and no wars. Instead they want the campaign to be about Trump ending democracy. Here is their argument. Trump has called his political enemies vermin and promised his supporters he would seek retribution. He plans to replace thousands of career civil servants with MAGA loyalist to take personal control of the Justice Department and to use the Insurrection Act to convert the military into his personal police force. Trump would use the federal government to seize voting machines and ballots. The question to ask is why didn't Trump do this when he was president.

Joe

Morning Joe this AM was bemoaning the fact that it was White people who were calling to defund the police while in the Black neighborhoods they were asking for more police. The press pushed the issue to defund without presenting the side of the people in Black areas. They did not dwell into the reasons why this happened but it can be assumed that when the danger was in someone else back yard it did not impact. Even today there are many rich people who live in gated communities who do not see crime in the same way and those in parts of the inner cities. One group sees crime as a problem but the other does not.

Michele

Some pundits have suggested that Biden may announce at the convention that because of health problems he will drop out and Michele Obama will step in. This would mean she would have to put with the scrutiny and insults that come in a campaign and many feel she would not be up to the task. A friend suggested that she may replace Harris as VP and after the election Joe would drop out and Michele would be president. This allows former President Obama to run the country and avoids the unnecessary trauma that Mrs Obama would have to deal with. This is a way to get rid of Harris without insulting Black women. Former President Obama could have eight years running the country from behind the scenes and allow Michele to avoid the pressures of leadership. While this is a lot of conjecture if the Dems thought this would defeat Trump they would go for it. Remember the rule, anyone but Trump.

Reshoring

One of my favorite economist is Milton Friedman. He was the great proponent of free trade saying that if country A can make quality widgets better than anyone else, then they should make the widgets. This makes good sense assuming that each country plays by the rules. When China was allowed into the world markets they used unethical ways to gain an advantage over their competing countries. First off they stole proprietary information and used that to build their new and improved steel plants. Second they sold yuan and bought dollars to lower the cost of their exports, (currency manipulation), third they used government funds to subsidize industries like steel and dump steel on the open market at prices below cost. Forth they have no concern for worker safety or the environment. They even use the slave labor of the Uyghers and child labor. One of the best examples of the adverse effects of globalization is the US steel industry. American steel industry was growing rapidly and by 1940 the US was producing more than half of the World's steel. The industry employed 700,000 workers thru the 1950's and 60's. Today the industry employs 83,000.The people who worked in the steel industry had good union wages, benefits like pension, healthcare, vacation, sick leave, life insurance, disability insurance and paid holidays. When they lost their jobs they lost the living wage along with all the benefits. They ended up working at jobs with half the pay and no benefits. They wanted help but too many people where making too much money to listen to their needs. Globalization allowed big corporations to make great profits at the expense of working people but no one cared. From 1970 to 2018, the share of aggregate income going to middle-class households fell from 62% to 43%. Over the same period, the share held by upper-income households increased from 29% to 48%.Jan 9, 2020 The country is now bringing back the manufacturing jobs in a process called reshoring. This lowers transportation cost and shortens supply chains. It means that the working people will once again have good jobs.

Pot

In 1964 the Surgeon General explained the dangers in smoking and since that time smoking as decreased from 40% to 12%. Smoking is the number one preventable cause of death in the US, killing over 480,000 people per year. While promoting the health benefits of non smoking the US at the same time is legalizing marijuana. Many studies are underway to determine the negative effects of smoking both tobacco and marijuana but common sense dictates that inhaling the various chemicals found in both cannot be healthy. Researchers analyzed data from over 6,100 adult cannabis consumers in twelve states. Ninety-one percent of respondents acknowledging having smoked herbal cannabis, with 59 percent reporting that inhalation "was their only mode of marijuana use." By contrast, only 25 percent of respondents reported having ever used cannabis-infused edible products, and only 20 percent reported ever having vaporized cannabis. Five percent of subjects reported exclusively consuming marijuana edibles, and two percent said that they only vaped cannabis. As the years pass and more information becomes available will the country come to the same conclusions about marijuana that it came to regarding tobacco. Typical marijuana plants contain more than 400 chemicals, including about 60 that can interact with the body's nervous system. Marijuana also can be contaminated with mold, insecticides or other chemicals. The health effects of many of these chemicals are still being studied.

MAGA

The world was enamored with globalization that started at the end of WW 2 but grew rapidly after China entered the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. Consumers had low priced products from China and business profits soared as manufacturing jobs moved overseas. The income gap widened but people in power were not affected. As far back as the 1980's Trump realized what was happening to the working class people and complained about the adverse effects of globalization. In a 1988 interview he complained, "they dump the cars and the VCR's and everything else". Candidate Trump said during his 2015 campaign he would declare China a currency manipulator on his first day in office. He did this is 2019 and at the same time imposed new tariffs on Chinese imports. This started the process of deglobalization which is called reshoring, that is, the bringing of manufacturing jobs back home or make America great again. When Biden took office he continued the process by keeping the import taxes and restricting tech investments by American companies in China. Chines companies began to move manufacturing to Mexico in order to by pass the import tax but once again Trump is ahead of the game. In a March 17 campaign speech, former president Trump vowed “We're going to put a 100 percent tariff on every single car that comes across the line, and you're not going to be able to sell those guys if I get elected.” MAGA means doubling the US industrial base and the process is already underway and will continue regardless of who is president. Reshoring these jobs means shorted and more reliable supply chains. It means higher wages for American workers and higher inflation for everyone. This industrial growth has helped Mexico which in 2023 replaced China as the US number one trading partner. Since 2018 when the Trump import taxes started China has poured billions of dollars into manufacturing facilities in Mexico. China will continue to steal intellectual property to make cheap goods but the US will no longer be buying.

Trump

A brief history of the Trump case currently on trial In January of 2018 Trump lawyer arranged a payment to a porn star to silence her claims about a 2006 sexual encounter with Trump. Trump denied the claim. Prosecutors felt they had enough evidence to bring charges but declined based on the longstanding Justice Department policy of not charging a sitting president. Several months later, after federal prosecutors concluded their investigation Manhattan District Attorney Cy Vance issued a subpoena for 8 years of Trump's business and personal tax records. In February 2021 Vance obtained the documents. At this point Trump was no longer president so Vance ramped up the probe. By March 2021 the DA felt that a felony charge would not hold up so the case was dropped. Vance resigned and in January 2022 was replaced with Alvin Bragg. On November 2022 Trump announced his bid for the 2024 election. In April 2023 Bragg presented his case against Trump. He did not mention the hush money claim but issued 34 counts of falsifying business records. According to Bragg Trump denied a sexual relationship and then lied about it on 34 business records, 12 ledger entries, 11invoices and 11 checks to disguise these payments as legal fees. These would be misdemeanors but Bragg elevated them to felonies arguing they were committed to hide another crime which he did not charge saying he was not required to specify the crime. This was necessary because the statute of limitations had expired on the misdemeanor charge.

Pharma

Stories about Big Pharma are published regularly showing how they are making profits and taking advantage of people who need certain drugs. This is true but there is another side to the story. The US with 5% of the world's population spends 45% of all R&D money on new drugs. Drugs launched after 1981 have saved 149 million years of life. Many countries like China just steal research information. It is difficult to comprehend the effects of drugs on the lives of people around the world. Polio is a highly infectious disease affecting mostly young children. More than 20 million people are able to walk today who would otherwise have been paralyzed. As estimated 1.5 million childhood deaths have been prevented. A more recent example is A Commonwealth Fund study estimates that, through November 2022, COVID-19 vaccines prevented more than 18.5 million US hospitalizations and 3.2 million deaths and saved the country $1.15 trillion. This is only two examples of the millions of people who are relieved of suffering and death by the modern drug industry. It is important for the government to regulate these companies in ways that does not interfere with the development of safe and inexpensive new cures.

Israel

The State of Israel was founded in 1948 on land that was owned by England. On May 18, 1945 England left the area and agreed that two states would take over the territory, one Jewish and one Palestinian. Israel declared itself an independent state and President Truman became the first world leader to recognize Israel as an independent state. The population at the time was 800,000 and today it is 10 million having absorbed over 3 million immigrants. Israel is a free market economy with powerful modern military. It contains a modern infrastructure with a tech sector rivaling Silicon Valley. It has the second largest number of startup companies trailing only the United State. It is rated the forth most successful economy in the world with a per capita GDP of $58,000. This country was built in an area that had remained poor and desert like for thousands of years. The other Arab countries in the region were nomadic desert tribes and only became modern when British and American engineers came and developed the oil industry. The Arab countries surrounding Israel to this day have per capita GDP of $3,000. This growth is an achievement worth noting and is the result of a free democratic society using free market principals. Israel is the only democracy in the Middle East. Jews attribute their success to the work ethic and a strong belief in education and the guiding hand of God. A

Criminals

George Soros is a American billionaire who is concerned about the disparities in prison populations in particular the disproportionate number of minorities in prison. Soros, who is a believer in the concepts of divesity, equity and inclusion (DEI), has invested in helping to elect district attornys who are mostly Black and willing to reduce sentencing on Black offenders. New York DA Bragg is a case in point. He regularly releases suspected criminals before trial and reduces 60% of felonies to misdemeanors. This is based on the concept of equity which means equal outcomes. If there are too many Blacks being sent to prison then reduce that number. Other DA's throughout the country are doing the same thing and repeat criminals are allowed back on the street. This poses a danger to the community and confuses the police who see the people they arrest back on the street. Here is a statement from NY City Mayor Eric Adams. According to the data, 38 individuals arrested for assault in the transit system last year were linked to 1,126 additional crimes across the city. "But it doesn't stop there: 542 people who are arrested for shoplifting committed 7,600 crimes in our city. So, we don't have a surge in crime. We have a surge in recidivism," Adams said. This is the direct result of releasing repeat criminals back onto the streets.

Protest

Many broadcasters observing the college protest are asking the question, why are there so many women protesting. One possible answer is that 60% of college students are female. Another is that women can more easily align with being part of the oppressed groups. Some suggest that since there are mostly men in the hard sciences, engineering and business and these courses do not allow the time to protest while there are mostly women in the fine and liberal arts where they have more time and some courses even give extra credit for protesting.

Speech

It has been six months since the ACLU expressed free speech concerns about the gag on Trump but not much has been done. WASHINGTON, Oct 25 (Reuters) - The American Civil Liberties Union on Wednesday urged a U.S. judge to reconsider a partial gag order she imposed on Donald Trump in the case accusing him of trying to overturn his 2020 election defeat, arguing it violates his free speech rights.Oct 25, 2023 Meanwhile Trump nemesis Michael Cohen daily publishes derogatory statements about Trump and the trial. Some feel this is not equal justice under the law.

Population

In 1798 Thomas Malthus said that the population of the world would increase until the food ran out at which time famine would step in and reduce the population. At that time the population was one billion and today it is 8 billion. Malthus did not anticipate the industrial revolution which led to an increase in food production. In 1800, for example, farmers had corn yields of 22 bushels per acre and today it is 176 bushels and eight fold increase which kept pace with the population growth. The birth rates around the world began to fall in the 1960's when the pill was invented. A combination of economic growth, good education and women's rights have combined to move the birth rate to below the replace level of 2.1 babies per woman. China's population is expected to decline by half from 1.4 billion to 700 million by 2100. Most of the population growth is occurring on the African continent where low income and low education is dominant. As Africa joins the industrial revolution the birth rate will decline. This is much like the problem of climate change. Once again the experts are making dire predictions about the future but nuclear power will change all of that. It is just a matter of time before the politics of the Green New Deal is exposed as just that, politics, and things will change and change quickly.

Education

The situation in education, especially the gap in test scores between Blacks and Whites, is disturbing to everyone. For many years experts in the field have tried to solve this problem without much success. There are two sides to the story. One side is called the accusers and the other side the excusers. Side one says the problems are fatherless homes, drugs, Black on Black crime, no emphasis on schooling and unwed teen moms. The excusers say it is poverty, racism, discrimination, Jim Crow laws and slavery. When the subject comes up the accusers and excusers both present their arguments and when the dust settles they all return to their respective corners and the test gap continues.

Students

Equal Justice Under Law is written across the front of the Supreme Court building. There are college protest going on all over the country but the experts say punishment for protesters will be different in different states. Some district attorney's say it will be too difficult to prove charges like trespassing. Students have the right to protest in certain campus areas, but occupying a building constitutes trespassing. Enforcement of these rules is seldom applied equally. Many people who participated in the summer riots of 2020 were not prosecuted even though property damage was in the millions. Minneapolis is still trying to rebuild and the city is paying for most. The responsibility for much of the destruction was not clearly assigned. On MPR the scene was described by saying that the police station suddenly caught fire. It must have been spontaneous combustion. They are not only hesitant to punish the offenders they don't even want to assign blame. A good compromise would be to jail those protesters who were not students and let the others go free.

Media

A 25 year veteran editor at NPR recently resigned after publicly saying that the newsroom was filled with 87 people who were all registered democrats. Many people believe that this represents the newsrooms of the top media companies. They are interested in diversity in all ways but not so when it comes to politics. Race, ethnicity, sexual orientation and gender do not matter but politics does. This week senior media writer for Politico says that the news people have lost their swagger. The newsrooms are filled with people who all think alike when it comes to politics and thus gather audiences that think like they do. It has become one big happy family. It is not unusual to see four or five people sitting around a table all reinforcing each others statements. Source after source reports the same thing in the same way. News people used to challenge the status quo but now they promote it. The media and the government have joined forces and the guardians of the first amendment have abdicated their responsibility to challenge the powerful. Many people mistakenly blame Trump for the distrust in the media but this trend started 40 years ago. In 1980 trust in the media was at 70% and today it is 32%.

Protest

As more information comes out regarding the campus protest is appears there are certain individuals who go from protest to protest trying to get the police to over react. It also appears there is outside financing to help these outsiders. They were seen in the Occupy Wall Street protest, in the Black Lives Matter protest, the summer riots of 2020 and now in the campus protest. When these uprisings start the experts sit back and say it's no big deal and not much is done until they later get out of hand. They start with a particular complaint but quickly expand into multiple complaints. The students started out saying cease fire in Palestine but it soon became antisemitic and now includes climate change, the new green deal and the hostages have all but been forgotten. There is a general anti American or anti Western feeling hanging over the whole protest. The underlying threat centers around the concept of the oppressors vs the oppressed. The Western countries with their advanced economies and their powerful armies represent the oppressors. The parents who can afford $70,000 per year in tuition cost are part of the oppressor group but the students, their children, haven't figured this out. Perhaps its time for the fathers, who are footing the bills, to step up and tell their children to get out of the tents and back into the classroom.

Fisher

Ken Fisher started Fisher investments in 1979 with $250. The firm now manages over $100 billion in assets and Fisher is worth $8 billion. He dropped out of high school but later graduated with an Associate Degree in Economics. He has authored 11 books on investment strategies, six of which were best sellers. Fisher has been married for many years and has three grown sons. He is well known for his philanthropy having given millions to various charities. I have never heard of this guy but am writing this for something odd that happened five years ago when he was 68. Fisher was asked in an interview how to approach a potential investment client and he said not to directly ask and the he used a analogy. He said you would not go up to a women in a bar and ask her what's in your pants. After that the city of Boston pulled $250 million from Fisher's fund. This was followed up with Fidelity reviewing $500 million in funds. Fisher Investments lost more than $2.7 billion as several pension funds withdrew their money. I was surprised at the reaction to Fisher's remarks. Makes you wonder what would have happened if he had said something positive about Hamas.

MSNBC

The pretense of impartiality in the media ended about 20 years ago and has moved further away from the facts and toward opinion. The editorial side merged with the news and objectivity went out the window. The liberals are more guilty than the conservatives only because most of the media is liberal. MSNBC that makes a living by reporting on Trump does not show the brief interviews that Trump gives each day before and after the court case. MSNBC was the station that said they would not cover Trump because he lies too much. When Trump has a rally the main stream news does not cover it. On MSNBC you will not hear from Trump directly but they spend much of their air time telling you what he said. In court that is called hearsay. It is dangerous to impugn motives but it seems that some people would be willing to look past the law to convict Trump of something.

LBJ

Over the past year talks about Biden dropping out of the race have been hot and cold. Things like Gaza suggest Biden may consider dropping out but as those types of things pass the talk disappears. LBJ decided not to run for a second term in April just before the democratic convention held in August in Chicago. The economy will be heating up and the Ukraine war will continue to put a strain on oil production so it is possible that gas prices may rise above four dollars this summer. Will this be the impetus for Biden to drop out. Most feel it is too late but stranger things have happened. The country was stunned when LBJ made his announcement. This brought on Hubert Humphrey who tried desperately to disassociate himself from LBJ's war policy. Would VP Harris try to move away from Biden's policies on inflation and immigration. Would she bring back the lost Black voters and push the abortion issue to an election win.

Reaction

The college protest will lose steam if the professional agitators do not get the police to take some controversial actions and so far the police have not cooperated. The plan was to get the police to start beating on the students and to put that on national TV to prove that America does not allow protest that all the talk about first amendment rights was just that, talk. This is patterned after the Hamas attack on Israel but they succeeded. Attack the Jews and wait for a response. Put innocent civilians in places where they are certain to be injured and killed and then present the evidence to the world. Since many throughout the world were already critical of Jews this strategy worked to perfection. Even President Biden is in a quandary as to how to respond. He his trying to please both sides which most of the time means you just anger both sides. He is not aware or has forgotten the principal that people react passively to what they agree with and actively to what they disagree with.

CRT

Most people have heard of critical race theory (CRT) but most are unaware of the history of CRT. According to Allen Geulzo a preeminent historian at Princeton University, CRT had its beginnings with Immanuel Kant in 1790. Kant believed that the Age of Reason could not give shape to our lives so he developed a theory of being critical of reason. His critique resulted in ways of appealing to some unreasonable things like race, nationality and class. Critical theory spawned ideologies such as Maxism and Nazism which taught that human relationships are based on an oppressor class and an oppressed class. For the Marxist  the bourgeoisie were the oppressors and for the Nazis the Jews were the oppressors and today the Whites are the oppressors. The bourgeoisie are the capitalist class that owns most of societies wealth and means of production. Phases like White privilege and White male dominance are used to illustrate oppressor. This ignores the fact that many non-Whites have risen above difficult childhoods to become productive, successful members of society. America is noted for this idea of moving up. People from around the world are making great sacrifice to come to America while many citizens living here have joined the hate America group. This was always thought to be a small group but recent events at universities have suggested otherwise.

MSNBC

There is no group more hopeful that Trump wins than MSNBC. Donald Trump‘s indictment on federal charges last week helped propel MSNBC to a weekly ratings win in primetime. The network averaged 1.52 million viewers in primetime (Monday through Sunday), compared to 1.5 million for Fox News. That ended a 120-week winning streak for Fox News. CNN averaged 677,000. The one good thing about the college protest is that Morning Joe finally stop talking about Trump.

Equity

The dictionary definition of the words equity and equality are very similar but in practice there is a world of difference. Equality is about equal opportunity and equity is about equal results. Equality is about meritocracy. Everyone is allowed to compete in the US Open Golf Tournament. You first get your handicap down and then sign up at one of the more than 100 local qualifying sites. If you win you move and if you keep winning you will be in the tournament. The very best players are in this tournament. Everyone has the opportunity to compete. Equal opportunity. Equal results is a different ball game. On MPR yesterday they talked about the Dakota War with the Native Americans. There are over 100 markers throughout the state with the names of men, women and children that died during this war. These markers are being torn down because there are no markers for the Indians that died. Equal results. Many government jobs have eased the test requirements to accommodate minorities who cannot pass the test. This started with jobs like police and fire but has spread to jobs in medicine and pilots. Many district attorney's are reducing felonies to misdemeanors and then refusing to prosecute because there are disproportionately too many Blacks in jail. Equal results. When too many Asian Americans were being admitted to universities the college began to add personality characteristics to the admission requirements. Some have even discontinued the SAT. When too many Black students were being expelled the schools stopped expelling. Just like criminals on the street understand they will not be punished the students know they will not be expelled. When you take away the punishment for wrong doing you get more wrong doing.

Test gap

When Asians started coming to America many like the Chinese railroad workers out west were treated like slaves and Japanese Americans were interned in camps during WW 2. Most Asian Americans say that discrimination is nothing new fueled by long running stereotypes. Despite looking different and being treated different they have prospered. Household income for Asians is $109,000 vs $53,000 for Blacks. Asians with Bachelor's degree or higher was 61% vs 28% for Blacks. Abortions rates for Asians 3% vs 34% for Blacks. There are many more statistics that illustrate the trend and there are a number of reasons given. One of the major difference is family values. Asian families teach respect for elders which is another way a saying respect for authority and place a lot of emphasis on education. This idea of respect for authority can be seen in the school suspension rates for Blacks at 12% vs Asians at 1%. This carries over into young adults who get in trouble with the law. Imprisonment is 20 times more likely if the person does not graduate from high school. Many experts have been trying to close the test score gap but have not had much success. All to often when these statistics are discussed the answer is to list the reasons why Blacks have so much trouble and for many Black students this is an excuse for their performance. Bush said it best when he said, the soft bigotry of low expectations. y 35