Thursday, May 9, 2024

Population

In 1798 Thomas Malthus said that the population of the world would increase until the food ran out at which time famine would step in and reduce the population. At that time the population was one billion and today it is 8 billion. Malthus did not anticipate the industrial revolution which led to an increase in food production. In 1800, for example, farmers had corn yields of 22 bushels per acre and today it is 176 bushels and eight fold increase which kept pace with the population growth. The birth rates around the world began to fall in the 1960's when the pill was invented. A combination of economic growth, good education and women's rights have combined to move the birth rate to below the replace level of 2.1 babies per woman. China's population is expected to decline by half from 1.4 billion to 700 million by 2100. Most of the population growth is occurring on the African continent where low income and low education is dominant. As Africa joins the industrial revolution the birth rate will decline. This is much like the problem of climate change. Once again the experts are making dire predictions about the future but nuclear power will change all of that. It is just a matter of time before the politics of the Green New Deal is exposed as just that, politics, and things will change and change quickly.

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