Electric power growth

MicroSoft alone is opening a new data center every three days. Each of these, on average, will need 100 megawatts which is what a small nuclear reactor can supply. That is the equivalent of one large nuclear power plant every 30 days. Throw in Google, Amazon and Facebook and the country cannot keep up with wind and solar. Thirty years ago the US was getting 60% of its electric power from fossil fuels and today it is still 60% despite the fact that in just the past ten years $2.6 trillion dollars has been spent on wind and solar. The problem is that the increase in electric power is growing faster than wind and solar can be implemented. This will get much worse in the coming years because of the AI requirements of these social media companies. Small nuclear reactors can keep up and surpass these needs.

Mining

Will the environmental forces within the US allow the production of the elements needed for our advanced high tech society. The rare earth metals are first mined then the ore is separated by element and then the ore is refined and then made into a finished product like a magnet. Today Chain has 75% of the mines, 89% of the separation, 91% of the refining and makes 90% of the magnets. In contrast the US has 16% of the mining, zero percent of the separation, zero percent of the refining and one percent of the manufacturing of magnets. In the 1960's the US was the world leader in mining rare earths at a mine in Mountain Pass, CA. The mine was shut down in 2002 because of environmental concerns and reopened in 2017. The mining is cleaner than the separation and refining so all of the rare earths are sent to China for further processing. 30 years ago Chinese president Dung shiao ping side publicly that China will have a monopoly on these elements and they will use that to extract favors from others. The US has known of this threat for all these years but has not taken it seriously.

Young people

The US birth rate has been dropping since 2007 which means that there are problems on the horizon. One bright side is that the teen birth rate has halved. Young people are not only the worker bees but they are also the consumers and since the US is a consumer driven economy these youngsters are needed for growth. This exemplifies the need for immigrants. The more educated immigrants come through the legal system and mostly from Asia. The lesser educated come from South America across the southern border illegally. Another way to offset this loss in younger people is to encourage more children. Both presidential candidates have pledged to increase the child tax credit which would be one way to help young families. The schools in most states now provide free meals which also helps young families but the best incentive is for young people to have good paying jobs which is coming with the rebuilding of the industrial base. There are good times ahead for young people.

Leadership

Botswana is an African country that most people know little about but there are some important lessons that can be learned by looking at the countries history since it became independent in 1966. The first and most important is the election of Seretse Khama as its president. His goal was to create a democratic country and he selected leaders based on merit and not the old tribal favorites method used by other African countries. Out of a population of 500,000 people only 100 finished high school and 22 went on to college. Khama recognized that education was the means to growth and development and so he spent the countries limited wealth on financing a better education system. Overtime as people became literate they were able to increased their contribution to the society. As the education program expanded Kharma turned his attention to health care. Africa was known for its vast natural resources so Kharma invited foreign investments in things like copper. This led to the discover of diamonds and instead of allowing the profits to go to individual tribes he used the money to build infrastructure like roads to facilitate business growth. In the past 60 years Botswana has moved from one of the poorest countries to one approaching Western standards of living. The secret was leadership, selecting people based on merit and concentrating on education and healthcare. The US could learn a few things from this countries experience and finding good leadership is at the top of the list.

Migrants

The law governing US immigration policy is called the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA). The INA allows the US to grant up to 675,000 permanent immigrate visas each year across various visa categories. This number should be much higher. These people are young adults with good educations. They fit nicely with the lesser educated migrants crossing the southern border. These illegal migrants should undergo back ground checks and any convicted felons should be sent back immediately. The others should be giving ITIN's and allowed to work. After some period of time, perhaps five years, they should become eligible for a green card. At the end of another five years they should be eligible for citizenship provided they are fluent in English. This gives them ten years to learn the language which will make them more valuable employees. These people are needed to keep the country prospering. In 2023, the fertility rate in the United States was 1.62 births per woman, which is a record low. This is well below the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman, which is needed to keep the population at replacement levels.

Transition

The world is on a path to move away from fossil fuels. The impetus is two fold. First the negative effects of increases in carbon dioxide and second the supply is running out. The question then becomes, what is the best way to proceed. The big picture is clear. It must be a slow, over the next 50 years, change to nuclear power. It will be done in steps sometimes using temporary changes to meet long term needs. The demand for power will grow rapidly as reshoring industry accelerates so in the interim gasoline should be replaced with natural gas since the grid cannot accommodate the additional strain that EV's will bring. Wind and solar will continue to expand with the understanding that these energy forms are also temporary. The push toward small nuclear reactors (SMR)should be a joint effort between private and government. The private providing the innovation and technology while the government re designs regulations and offers incentives through tax subsidies. As the SMR's begin to roll off the production lines they will replace wind and solar. These units will be placed at the point of use taking pressure off the grid while reducing transmission lines. SMR power will be used to separate water into hydrogen and oxygen and the hydrogen will replace the natural gas in cars and trucks. SMR's will be used to take nitrogen and carbon dioxide from the air and manufacture synthetic diesel and jet fuel for heavy equipment and air transport. All of the old big nuclear power plants will be closed and windmills and solar farms will be phased out and the transfer to carbon free will be complete.

Inflation

As the re industrialization of America gains momentum it will be difficult to control inflation. A number of things can be done to ease the problem. First off many regulations on business could be re evaluated as to their efficacy. Energy production could be maximized to reduce cost overall in particular transportation. As companies come home (reshoring) supply lines shorten and shipping cost decrease. The cost of a 40 foot shipping container increased from $1,800 to $8,300 during the past few years. Government subsidies could be reduced. Renewable subsidies jumped to $15.6 billion in fiscal year 2022 from $7.4 billion in fiscal year 2016, according to the Energy Information Administration's Federal Financial Interventions and Subsidies in Energy report. Subsidies to the oil companies in the form of depletion allowance are The IMF estimates that the total amount of fossil fuel subsidies worldwide is $5.4 trillion annually, while the US spends $646 billion annually on fossil fuel subsidies. The cost of new homes could be reduced by cutting back on unneeded regulations. According to a 2021 NAHB study, regulations add $93,870 to the average price of a new single-family home in the United States, which is 23.8% of the total cost. As the new production facilities come on line they will use the latest technology which will increase productivity and lower cost per unit. Reaching a peaceful settlement to the Ukraine war would lower government spending not to mention the human cost.

Election

Everyone is looking forward to November 6. That is the first day of the 2028 presidential election. Agggggggggggggggggggggggggggh

Ukraine

Frank Siller, the man who started Tunnels to Towers, was on TV today and announced that T2T would pay off 200 mortgages this year. If the average mortgage is $400,000 that is $80 million dollars. To date the US has sent $175 billion to Ukraine. That would be enough to pay off 437,000 mortgages and this war is not over. It will take T2T over 2,000 years to do this. Roughly 70% of Americans want the Biden administration to push Ukraine toward a negotiated peace with Russia as soon as possible, according to a new survey from the Harris Poll and the Quincy Institute, which publishes Responsible Statecraft.

no subject

US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) released the following information on October 2, 2024. According to ICE figures obtained by the Daily Mail, removals of convicted criminal aliens between FY2021-2023 dropped by 74 percent compared to FY2017-2020. ICE removed more than 526,000 convicted criminal aliens between FY2017-2020, but just 134,617 from FY2021-2023. Last week, ICE released additional numbers showing that, as of July 21, 2024, nearly 650,000 criminal illegal aliens were currently on ICE’s Non-Detained Docket (NDD), many of them roaming free in communities throughout the United States Homicide 14,944 Sexual assault 20,061 Burglary/Robbery 60,268 Traffic offenses 126,343 Weapon offenses 16,820 Kidnapping 3,372 Commercial sex 3,971

SMR

There are currently three small modular nuclear reactors now in service, one in China, one in Russia and one in India. In addition three more are under construction and 65 are in the planning stage. The need for new electric power is far exceeding the projected increase in power. One of the big users of power is data centers from companies like Microsoft, Amazon and Google. Microsoft recently contracted to start up the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant by purchasing the next 20 years of power at 900 megawatts per year just to power their future data centers. Amazon has contracted to build 4 small reactors for a total of 400 megawatts and Google has contracted to build 6 small reactors to provide 500 megawatts for their new data centers. It takes 10 times as much energy to do a Chat GPT search as it does to do one Google search. Data centers need continuous power which wind and solar cannot provide. These tech companies realize that the grid cannot supply their power needs.

Thorium

Small thorium nuclear reactors are fail safe. In order to understand this consider burning wood chips in a stove. You add the chips and nothing happens until you use a match to lite the wood. The fire then continues as long as you keep adding chips. If you stop adding chips the fire goes out. In thorium reactors the fuel, thorium, is mixed with melted salt much like table salt. At this point nothing happens because thorium cannot start a chain reaction without the match which is Uranium 233. When the U 233 is add to the fuel mixture the chain reaction begins and will continue as long as you keep adding fuel ( thorium with melted salt). If you stop adding fuel the reaction stops and the reactor shuts down. This is called walk away safety because if the power to the plant is disrupted the reactor shuts down. In addition small thorium reactors do not use water to cool. Using water means high pressure but thorium works at ordinary atmospheric pressure. No chance of an explosion and thus no need for a containment vessel. Thorium reactors produce far less waste products and can use up existing stored waste from regular uranium power plants.

IRA

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 was grossly misnamed. It authorize $891 billion in total spending including $783 billion on energy and climate change and subsidized Obamacare for three years plus hiring of 87,000 new IRS agents.

Migrants

This is from AP on March 5, 2024 Each month, U.S. Customs and Border Protection discloses how many people from these four countries were allowed to enter the country. On Jan. 26, the agency reported 327,000 were vetted and authorized for travel. There were more than 67,000 Cubans, 126,000 Haitians, 53,000 Nicaraguans and 81,000 Venezuelans. The Center for Immigration Studies article says CBP approved flights that brought 320,000 to the United States last year. The author, Todd Bensman, learned they came to 43 airports but the government refused to divulge which ones, citing an exemption under the Freedom of Information Act for law enforcement-sensitive information

War

As North Korea sends troops to fight in Ukraine the door opens for European countries to send troops to help Ukraine. Will this be the next step in mission creep. The world seems to be on an inexorable path to a wider war but no one wants to step up to the plate and recognize what is happening. Where is the leadership in the toothless UN and when will the EU and the US wake up.

ITIN

An ITIN (individual tax identification number) is issued to people who are not citizens who earn money. This allows them to file an income tax return. Even though social security is deducted they do not accumulate any benefits under social security. It merely gives them a way to file for income tax purposes. One solution to the current migrant problem is to first deport all migrants who are convicted felons. Second allow those remaining to have ITIN's. After five years of working and reporting income they become eligible for a green card. At this point they can get a green card which means a social card can be issued. At this point they become eligible for child tax credits but not earned income tax credits. After another five years they become eligible for citizenship but they must be able to read and speak English. They cannot vote until they are citizens. The laws regarding employment of illegals are just as confusing as most IRS rules. First off they say you cannot work in the USA if you are an illegal immigrant. Then they say you can if you get an Employment Authorization Document, (UAD).

Germany

Germany is a saga of what happens when you combine fear and ignorance. In the 1970's the people of Germany decided that they did not want nuclear power. (fear). At that time they had 17 operating plants producing 16% of their electric power. In 2002 laws were passed to phase out all nuke power plants and by the end of 2022 that was complete. The goal was to replace nuclear power with wind and solar. This decision was made by the government in response to the people but without any studies regarding how this change would take place. Early on in this transition it became apparent that Germany did not have much wind or much sun. (ignorant). What to do with the times when wind and solar were not producing, which was known in the industry, as the base power. That is the minimum amount of power that is needed at all times. It was decided that natural gas was the answer. Then came the war in Ukraine and the gas supplies from Russia were cut off. Some suggested that the nuke plants be restarted. Polls that showed the majority of people who previously had not supported nuclear changed their minds but you cannot just start up a nuke plant. It takes at least a year and so Germany has restarted their old coal plants and they use lignite coal which is the dirtiest of all coal. They are so short of electric power that many of their big industries are moving over seas in a process called de industrialization. These changes were made in response to the people which is the way democracy is supposed to work but someone in charge should have stepped up to educate the people. The same thing is happening in the US and the country needs a leader to come forward and explain to the people that wind and solar cannot replace fossil fuels and the only solution is nuclear power.

SMR's

New smaller and more efficient gas turbines are now available to partner with small modular reactors to produce power for on site use. The turbines, like the reactors can be mass produced on assembly line and carried to the site on a semi truck. Each turbine can accommodate three 100 megawatt reactors. All those who promote wind and solar understand the need for back up power for when the wind doesn't blow and the sun doesn't shine. One of the big draw backs to wind and solar is that the site where the energy is produced is many miles from the use site whereas with small nuclear reactors the energy is produced on site thus eliminating the need for miles and miles of transmission lines. Current large nuclear reactors take up about 600 acres of land and SMR's with the same energy output take up less. A Wind farm of equivalent energy output will take up 200,000 acres. The future dictates that fossil fuels will run out and must be replace. Based on today's technology the replacement will either be wind and solar or nuclear but in the long run nuclear produces power 24/7 while wind and solar are intermittent. Wind farms require up to 360 times as much land area to produce the same amount of electricity as a nuclear energy facility, a Nuclear Energy Institute analysis has found.

Election

Regardless of who wins the election some things will remain the same. First off de globalization is well underway and unstoppable at this time. The reshoring of business will continue and double the industrial base over the next ten years. This means many new good manufacturing jobs and wage price inflation. The need for migrant workers will increase and many people will go to work in industry right out of high school much as was the case in the 1950's and 60's. New factories means the latest technology which will be led by AI. On the job training combined with automation will increase productivity which will allow for increased wages. Low cost energy will be developed using nuclear power and this will be used to supplement wind and solar which need back up.

SMR

Energy experts are predicting that the supply of oil will begin to decline later this decade which means higher prices for gasoline. During this same time period the supply of natural gas is also expected to decline. In the past changing transportation over to natural gas would have been a wise move in order to conserve oil but now both gas and oil will be in short supply the only way to compensate is to switch to wind and solar and or nuclear. As the supply of oil and gas declines the price will rise and put pressure on non fossil fuel alternatives. The big question remains. Shall the world look to wind and solar or nuclear or both and the obvious answer is both. As these changes take place the consumers will become more knowledgeable about these energy sources and nuclear will win out. It is not the price of each energy source that will determine the winner but the mining, processing and disposing of the elements needed for each source. As people become more educated regarding the advantages of small nuclear reactors the fear associated with nuclear will diminish and the amount of stored waste products will no longer be a problem and the two main objections to nuclear will be eliminated. People are slowly coming to understand that both wind and solar need a back up source of energy while nuclear needs no such backup. The big one 1000 megawatt nuclear power plants spread across the country are aging out and will be replaced with small 100 megawatt units that will be placed on site at the use point. One example among many is Amazon. Amazon has recently announced plans to invest in small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) to power its distribution centers, particularly focusing on using them to provide electricity for its data centers.

NRC

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) was created as an independent agency by Congress in 1974 to ensure the safe use of radioactive materials for beneficial civilian purposes while protecting people and the environment.  As a member of this group you will approach the construction of a new facility with a safety first mindset. This means, to many, using the what if scenario. What if this happens or what if that happens and these questions lead to more questions and in time nothing gets built and you are safe because you are not criticized if nothing gets built only if an accident occurs. This agency needs a new purpose which includes the development of nuclear power which is not only safe but active.

tariffs

The recent discussions about tariffs (import taxes) has fallen into the trap of either or when in fact that there are many variations. Most economist agree that tariffs are not good because they lead to everyone increases taxes to protect their own countries. The general rule is that if country A can make widgets more efficiently that other countries then they should make them and export them. This makes sense and holds true as long as all countries play by the same rules. China was allowed into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001 and immediately began to break the rules. First they manipulated their currency to make their products less expensive. Second they used government money to subsidize certain industries, like steel, to dump cheap steel on the world market and run competitors out of business. Third they used cheap and in some cases slave labor and forth they have little to no regulations on how things are produced leaving workers in dangerous on the job situations and no environmental concerns. This unfairness was recognized early on by Trump who place import taxes on many Chinese products. Biden was also aware of the unfair trade practices of China and not only kept the Trump tariffs but added more.

Uranium

When mining for uranium, the ore is first ground up and the cleaned up concentrated product is uranium oxide. This is treated and changed into a gas called uranium hexafluoride. This product contains two kinds of uranium called isotopes. It is 99.3% U238 and .7% U235 and it is the 235 that is needed for power plants. This is concentrated up to about 4% and is then ready for a reactor. During the cold war this was the method used to get fuel for the nuclear power plants. In 1979 an agreement between the USA and the USSR allowed both countries to reduce their nuclear bombs and so they started using the material from these bombs to run the power plants. Thus they stopped processing U 235 and now they have used up all the bomb material and must go back to the old way. Russia was providing the US with most of its uranium but that must now be replaced from some other source. In May of this year congress passed a law prohibiting the purchase of uranium from Russia.The best options are Canada and Australia.

Energy

The phrase clean energy is a misnomer since anything manufactured begins with mining. For example the battery in an electric car weighs about 1,000 pounds and requires the digging up of 500,000 pounds of rock. This requires the use of heavy machinery to dig and grind and concentrate the elements needed to produce the battery. All of this means dirty air and water and the American people do not want that so most of the materials needed for batteries is imported from countries which are willing to dirty up their environment. US mining companies recognize that the cost of elements like copper will increase but they are not starting new mines but are instead buying up competitors to increase their supplies. One way to get more energy without increasing mining operations is to use nuclear power.

SMR

The Biden administration is the most active in promoting nuclear power including small light water reactors (Gen III) which is a step toward small liquid salt reactors (Gen IV)some of which use thorium. WASHINGTON, D.C. — As part of the Biden-Harris Administration’s Investing in America agenda, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) today opened applications for up to $900 million in funding to support the initial domestic deployment of Generation III+ (Gen III+) small modular reactor (SMR) technologies.

Police

When some communities were going to defund the police many in the news said they were not talking about defunding but rather reorganizing. Here is a quote from May 2020. Every member of the Minneapolis City Council has now expressed the need for dramatic structural change. I am one of many on the Council, including the Council President and the Chair of Public Safety, who are publicly supporting the call to disband our police department and start fresh with a community-oriented, non-violent public safety and outreach capacity. Here is a quote from July 2024 Since the 2020 murder of George Floyd, the Minneapolis Police Department has struggled to retain and recruit staff. Now city leaders are trying to improve other avenues to support the police department. Here is another quote Nine members of the Minneapolis City Council on Sunday announced they intend to defund and dismantle the city’s police department following the police killing of George Floyd. Since there are only 13 members this represents a majority. Here is a quote from June 2020. The Minneapolis City Council unanimously passed a resolution to replace the police department with a community-oriented public safety system. In November of 2021 Minneapolis voters rejected a measure to replace the city's police department. The problem persist to this day. As of July 2024, the MPD has 568 staff officers but is budgeted for 713 staff officers, according to data provided by MPD Spokesperson Garrett Parten.Jul 25, 2024 Since the 2020 murder of George Floyd, the Minneapolis Police Department has struggled to retain and recruit staff.

Nuclear

Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm is committed to build 200 nuclear power plants each one producing one gigawatt which is the size of the existing plants. We are determined to build a world-class nuclear industry in the United States, and we're putting our money where our mouth is,” Granholm said. Granholm said the Biden administration wants to build a domestic nuclear energy industry, adding 200 gigawatts to the country’s electric grids to meet both the growing energy demand and climate change goals. While this is exciting news for nuclear advocates the enthusiasm is somewhat dampened when recalling that Granholm is the person who suggested that military tanks could run on batteries. Here is her quote from June of this year "To reach our goal of net-zero by 2050, we have to at least triple our current nuclear capacity in this country. That means we’ve got to add 200 more gigawatts by 2050," she said. "And so it’s time to cash in on our investments by building more these facilities," she added,

Columbus

I subbed on Monday at the local high school and they had an assembly where a Native American spoke. This was to celebrate what used to be called Columbus Day. This is another example of how we use today's standards to judge people in the past. Slavery was considered a common practice at that time and really didn't end in most places until the 1800's. Native American tribes often fought against one another and the winners would kill the men and take women and children as slaves. This followed a pattern that was common around the world. In the process new diseases were introduced into different communities. Throughout history more people have died from typhus than from all the wars in history. History shows that a new nation with a superior weapon would defeat and enemy and take over their territory and in the case of the Europeans coming to America it was the rifle. Throughout the Muslim world from 500 AD to 1000 AD they not only took over the land but required that people to accept their religion. When Christianity expanded during the Middle Ages, forced conversions were the norm.

Climate

The origins of climate change as a public issue date back to Earth Day in 1970. It was followed by moving away from nuclear power, next replacing coal with natural gas and then tightening fuel standards on cars and trucks and increasing efficiency on appliances. Meetings at the UN and throughout the western world have resulted in little change. In the 1970's CO2 emissions were 15 billion tons per year and in 2023 there were 37 billion tons. The news is filled with articles expounding on the advances in wind and solar but the amount of CO2 keeps increasing. It's like living in two different world, the first is the make believe world that wind and solar are the answer and the second is the real world where they are not the answer. This has been going on for 50 plus years with no reason to believe anything will change. The problem is that there are industries and political careers that depend on staying the course. Climate has gotten wrapped up in politics to where it involves things like Climate Justice. Climate justice connects the climate crisis to the social, racial and environmental issues in which it is deeply entangled. It recognizes the disproportionate impacts of climate change on low-income and BIPOC communities around the world, the people and places least responsible for the problem. BIPOC Black, Indigenous, and People of Color

Nuclear

Nuclear is making a come back in the Infrastructure bill. People have come to understand that zero carbon is not possible without nuclear power. Included in the bill is bipartisan legislation known as the ADVANCE Act that will help us build new reactors at a clip that we haven’t seen since the 1970s.  Also in the bill is money for small reactors. Another development in this bill is its focus on small reactor technologies, known as microreactors.   Also in the Inflation Reduction Act there are funds allocated for nuclear. Momentum is building for U.S. nuclear energy and the investments and tax incentives included in IRA guarantee a commitment to nuclear energy that will continue well throughout the nation’s journey to net-zero. In states many new bill are being introduce to promote nuclear power. Five years ago only 10 bills were introduced and last year there were 200. Environmentalist are now including nuclear when they talk about carbon free and venture capitalist are showing interest. China is still leading the way but America is waking up.

Election

The political pundits and the polls indicate a close election and the experts say that the results will depend on turn out meaning which team has the best ground game which means ballot harvesting. Most agree that a large turn out is good for democracy but some question the value of low information voters. Thomas Jefferson said, an educated citizenry is a vital requisite for our survival as a free people. Is an uninformed vote better than a non vote. Can uninformed voters be convinced by the harvester to vote a certain way and if so is that good for democracy. These are puzzling questions. In states where the practice is legal, volunteers or campaign workers can go directly to the homes of voters, collect the completed ballots, and drop them off en masse at polling places or election offices. In some states, ballot harvesters can be paid hourly for their work To many this seems like an open invitation to unscrupulous activity. Over the years many states have realized the possible misuse and have changed laws to limit this practice.

Stimulus

More than 476 million payments totaling $814 billion in financial relief went to households impacted by the pandemic. March 2020. First stimulus sent $1,200 to each tax filer and $500 to each child December 2020. Second stimulus sent $600 to each tax filer and $600 to each child March 2021. Third stimulus sent $1,400 to each tax filer and $1,400 to each child This meant a family of four received $11,400. It is not surprising that all of this money went into the economy and that spending it just ended in April of this year. This does not include another $5 trillion that went to other entities including businesses and unemployment compensation. People who normally did not qualify for unemployment suddenly got benefits. As a substitute teacher, I qualified for unemployment and not only received my state money but also $600 per week for 16 weeks. All in all my wife and I received $6,400 in stimulus and $9,600 in unemployment. Then in late 2021, I get another check for $3,500 and I have no idea what that was for. I did not need this money and there are many other retired people who did not need the money. The net result was that working families ended up paying for all this through inflation. It always seems that the most in need get the shaft.

Foreign policy

The US should take on a new role in foreign policy as reshoring brings jobs back home. The first place to start is in the Middle East. The Abraham Accords will unite the Arab countries of UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan with Jordan and Egypt who already have peace agreements with Israel and all of these will work with the US in bringing Saudi Arabia on board. The Saudi's are willing to join in order to receive protection from the US to prevent Iran from taking over their oil fields. With this new agreement the US will back Israel with all that is needed to completely destroy Hamas. The next step will be to get the Arab countries to agree to finance the rebuilding of Gaza using Israeli construction companies and Palestinian labor. Once this is completed, elections will be held in both Gaza and the West Bank where new leadership, somewhat like the old PLO that preceded Hamas, is put in place. At this point the two state solution becomes possible. While this is going on the US will lead NATO to negotiate a peace in Ukraine. The next step is to have the European Union countries fiance the rebuilding of Ukraine, which will allow Russia back into the communities of the West with trade and commerce. The new role for the US will not involve US military or US money. The US will assume a leadership role in bringing various groups together to promote common goals.

Preemies

A couple of years ago when Roe was overturned the abortion issue was widely discussed and this led to the fact that some babies are born after a botched abortion attempt and they were then allowed to die. This information was not public knowledge because under the law that would be murder. This led others to bring up what happens when very old and sick people require special and usually expensive care. It turns out that many times care is limited or refused. As the population ages and there are fewer working age people to cover the expenses of the retired people pressure will build to limit care for the elderly. When the life of a damaged child due to an abortion is devalued this carries over to unborn children with various defects which can easily be transferred to sick old people. It is easy to make a strong argument that a 90 year old man with a bad liver should not be eligible for a heart transplant. From there you just lower the age and other conditions to slowly get rid of old people who are seen as a financial drain on society. In 2016, the annual societal economic cost (medical, educational, and lost productivity) associated with preterm birth in the United States was at least $25.2 billion.

Election

The Trumpification of the country is almost complete as witnessed by the changes in candidate Harris. It climaxed with her border speech when she said, "If someone does not make an asylum request at a legal point of entry and instead crosses our border unlawfully, they will be barred from receiving asylum,". Our system must be orderly and secure, and that is my goal." Climate change is gone as an issue since both parties now support maximum production of fossil fuels. Both candidates are pro choice. Both have strong support for Israel. Both want to keep import taxes on China. Both are promoting de globalization. Both want lower taxes on working people. Both have abandon any concern about the national debt has each has proposed massive spending programs. Both want to conserve social security and Medicaid. Both promise to keep and improve Obamacare. Harris no longer supports national health insurance. She no longer supports reparations. She is no longer anti fracking. The only place they differ is the war in Ukraine. Harris wants to continue as long as it takes and Trump wants to negotiate a peace. The fears that Trump will become a dictator and end democracy are unfounded since he had the perfect opportunity to do that with Covid when he was president. The national crisis represented what happened during the civil war when Lincoln suspended habeas corpus which many referred to as declaring martial law. Trump challenged the election results but left the White House peacefully when his term was up.

Poverty

Over the past 50 years the US has spent $30 trillion on the war on poverty. Thus, government at all levels is spending roughly $1.8 trillion per year to fight poverty (Figure 1). Stretching back to 1965, when President Lyndon Johnson first declared a “war on poverty,” anti-poverty spending has totaled more than $30 trillion. In 1980 the poverty rate was 13.2% with 29 million living in poverty. Today the poverty rate is 11.3% with 38 million living in poverty. To power the US it would take about 1,400 nuclear power plant at a cost of $5 billion dollars each for a total cost of $7 trillion or one sixth of what has been spent on poverty. If small nuclear units were used instead it would take 14,000 but the cost would be less because of economies of scale as they would be mass produced assembly line style.

TD bank

It was announced today that the Toronto Dominion Bank was fined $3 billion dollars after admitting that the bank laundered money for criminal enterprises including illegal drugs. This banks assets are $2,000 billion and this fine means nothing. Once again the big wheels get off without anyone going to jail. TD had $1.97 trillion in assets on July 31, 2024. In time and after further investigation some underlings may go to jail much like happened in the mortgage scandal of 2008. What ever happened to the buck stops here.

Housing

Back in 1959 when I bought my first house it was in a neighborhood that was previously a corn field and the houses were small two or there bedroom homes built on a slab. The people buying these homes were white working class citizens and in many parts of the country Blacks were not allowed because of the fear that would lower the value of the homes. Fast forward 70 years and the same principal remains and can best be seen in California. This state is overwhelmingly liberal and has the highest housing cost in the country. The reason is that people will not allow multi-housing units to be built in their neighborhoods. People of any color are welcome assuming they can afford to live there but working people are not in that group. The people in these neighborhoods fear that if multi housing units are allowed in that will lower the value of their property so they are zoned out. Same old story but Blacks have been replaced by working people of any color. The people living in these areas are just ordinary folks who believe in equality and in many cases equity but not in their back yard.

Social security

How to calculate your social security retirement benefit. Take all earnings between ages 22 and 62, then subtract the lowest five years and multiply each year by a factor for that year and add the total and that becomes your primary insurance amount. For almost everyone this means the wages you earned between ages 27 and 62. If the plan is to privatize social security you start next year with everyone who turns age 27. Each employee contributes 6.2% of their salary to SS and this is matched by the employer. 2.2% of that is used to provide for disability benefits and survivor benefit leaving 8% to go into a saving plan. The plan will be much like the federal government savings plan that started in 1957. These are life cycle funds that are adjusted each year based on your age. All people over age 27 next year will continue in the SS program. This is a way to transfer the SS program to a private program which allows the employee to own his account. This will eliminate the racist bias that now exist and go a long way toward closing the wealth gap.

Election

The Trumpification of the country is almost complete as witnessed by the changes in candidate Harris. It climaxed with her border speech when she said, "If someone does not make an asylum request at a legal point of entry and instead crosses our border unlawfully, they will be barred from receiving asylum,". Our system must be orderly and secure, and that is my goal." Climate change is gone as an issue since both parties now support maximum production of fossil fuels. Both candidates are pro choice. Both have strong support for Israel. Both want to keep import taxes on China. Both are promoting de globalization. Both want lower taxes on working people. Both have abandon any concern about the national debt has each has proposed massive spending programs. Both want to conserve social security and Medicaid. Both promise to keep and improve Obamacare. Harris no longer supports national health insurance. She no longer supports reparations. She is no longer anti fracking. The only place they differ is the war in Ukraine. Harris wants to continue as long as it takes and Trump wants to negotiate a peace. The fears that Trump will become a dictator and end democracy are unfounded since he had the perfect opportunity to do that with Covid when he was president. The national crisis represented what happened during the civil war when Lincoln suspended habeas corpus which many referred to as declaring martial law. Trump challenged the election results but left the White House peacefully when his term was up.

Corn

Because of the war, Ukraine was unable to ship grain out using the Black Sea so they created a corridor through Romania and Bulgaria. Russia recently attacked three grain ships in this area which means grain coming from Ukraine may be in jeopardy. Under current law 40% of US corn must be used for ethanol. When people start going hungry in parts of the world will it be time to change the law and start using corn as feed. It has already been shown that this way to manufacture fuel is not reducing CO2.

Banning

The Twitter files is a report issued by several private journalist who were given permission by Musk to investigate at first why Trump was banned. The results was more far reaching than the Trump incident. These journalist discovered that various government agencies, most notable the FBI, would send information to the different social media sites warning them of certain mis or dis information and they should handle this info according to their company policy. They did not say that this info should be banned but subsequent checks revealed that often times it was banned. This apparently been going on for years but only came to the attention of the public with the release of the Twitter files. Many individuals were aware of this because they found themselves being banned. It normally came to their attention when they discovered that their post were not being sent to their subscribers in a process called shadow banning.

Rust belt

Private investment in construction spending has been on the increase since 2011 when it was $500 billion and $1570 billion in 2023. This is expected to continue to increase over the next ten years as the US industrial complex must replace foreign imports as the country brings manufacturing jobs back home. This is being encouraged by both the Trump and Biden administrations as they increase import taxes primarily on Chinese goods. This is a reversal of the global policies that hurt the manufacturing sector over the thirty years between 1980 and 2010. This was the time when corporate profits rose by using cheap and sometimes slave labor to make products in China. This was the time when CEO salaries went from 42 times the average hourly worker in 1980 to 365 times in 2020. While this was going millions of good paying union jobs in manufacturing were sent overseas resulting in the rust belt in Middle America. All the time this was going on politicians were claiming they were backing the working man. This was exemplified by Teamster President Sean O'Brien who said "I'm a Democrat, but they have f---ed us over for the last 40 years," O'Brien said during a sit-down with Theo Von for the comedian's "This Past Weekend" podcast. "And for once — and not all — but for once, we're standing up as a union, probably the only one right now, saying, ‘what the f--- have you done for us?’" He went on to say, during the past two years the union has given $15.7 million to the democrats and $340,000 to the republicans. Many Blacks and Union members feel the democrats have taken their support for granted.

Plants

The re industrialization of the country is well underway and most people are not aware of just what is happening. Factories are going up across the nation with little or no knowledge by the public. In a small Pennsylvania town on the Ohio border Shell Penn Petrochemical Company is building a new facility. It will convert natural gas into usable chemicals to build plastics. It's a $14 billion dollar project started in 2015 by moving millions of cubic yards of dirt, building new bridges, a new rail line and relocating a highway. 5,000 employees are working on construction and the site will have four processing units to make polyethelene. A natural gas power plant will be built just to supply electricity to the chemical plants. A new gas pipeline will be constructed to bring in gas from the fields 100 miles away, a 900 foot cooling tower, a rail system with over 3,000 freight cars, and numerous loading facilities for both trains and trucks, a water treatment plant, an office building, a new laboratory and an innovation center are all part of the project. When finished it will provide 600 full time jobs to run the operation. These will be mostly blue collar jobs where employees will be trained on the job, where the pay and benefits will be top notch. Operations began in November of 2022 and the plant is producing one million tons of plastic pellets each year. This is just one example of what is going on all across America and will continue well into the future.

Climate

In August of last year while visiting the damage caused by Hurricane Idalia Biden said, "I don't think anybody can deny the impact of the climate crisis anymore" and we haven't heard much about climate since. While climate has always been portrayed as an environmental issue, the silence tends to lean more toward a political issue. Since during the Trump and Biden years the production of fossil fuels have been a record levels no one wants to talk about it, plus polls show the people do not see it as an important issue.

Taxes

The Trump corporation tax cuts in 2017 lowered the rate from 35% to 21% and increased depreciation schedules on most new purchases. The plan doubled the standard deduction and doubled the child tax credit which lowered the taxes for most people. The change in corporate tax started the ball rolling as deglobalization came into play. In addition Trump placed import taxes on Chinese goods which further encouraged new plant development in the US. Biden continued the import taxes and added more while passing the Chips Act which gave tax incentives for US companies to bring manufacturing back home. The US must double its industrial base over the next ten years to be able to produce here at home all of the products it has been importing from China and other countries. If Trump is elected he will renew the 2017 tax cuts which are due to expire at the end of 2025. In addition Trump has now proposed reducing the corporate tax to 15% for companies that manufacture and sell inside the US. He also will remove taxes from TIPS and on social security benefits and taxes on overtime pay and increase the child tax credit to $5,000. These changes will basically remove income tax from working people. As these people get the new high paying jobs that are coming with new manufacturing jobs they will spur economic growth with their newly freed up tax free income. While the upside to this is a booming economy the downside is high inflation for about five years while production catches up with demand. Example. John police officer earns $70,000 plus $10,000 overtime Mary waitress earns $35,000 which includes $30,000 in TIPS. Under current law this couple pays $6,700 in taxes. Under the new law they will not only not pay taxes but they will get a $5,600 refund. This puts an extra $12,300 in their pockets. Example. Jack age 65 retired gets $3,000 per month from SS and Jill his wife age 65 gets $1,500 per month. Jack has a pension of $3,000 per month and Jill has pension of $1,200 per month and they take out $4,000 per year from their IRA. Their total gross income is $108,000 and the pay $5,500 in taxes. Under the new law they will pay $2,400 in taxes.

CIA

When WW 2 started the government realized it needed to have spies around the world to collect data to help fight against the enemies and it established the Office of Strategic Services (OSS). During the war this grew into a formidable operation. At the end of the war Truman ended the OSS saying there was too much power in the hands of unelected people. Within two years the Soviet Union became a threat and Truman set aside his feeling about bureaucrats and formed the CIA. Today the US intelligence community is made up of 18 organizations that work to analyze, evaluate and disseminate information and they employ over 100,000 people with budget of $100 billion dollars. Add to this the 70 years that J Edgar Hoover collected information secretly on millions of citizens. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer showed an understanding of the power in these agencies when he said, "Let me tell you, you take on the intelligence community, they have six ways from Sunday of getting back at you". These groups can work outside the law and when congress tries to oversee what they are doing, they just respond by saying it is national security work so we cannot discuss anything we are doing. This is only one part of the deep state which includes people in leadership positions and many government agencies. These unnamed un elected bureaucrats are running the country and the congress thinks they are in control.

Nuclear

When discussing climate change there are some basics that most agree upon. First that the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is increasing. Second there is a limited supply of fossil fuels. Third wind and solar cannot replace fossil fuels without poisoning the ground water. Forth the need for energy will keep increasing. This leads to the use of nuclear power to save the day but who opposes that. The fossil fuel industry for one and the wind and solar industry for another. As long as these two entities control the dialog the longer nuclear will stay in the background. It is up to the scientist to awaken the people to the fact that future energy supplies are threatened and nuclear power is the only answer. This will eventually happen but will it be too late to prevent a serious curtailment of the economy before people wake up. The government has had some support for nuclear energy going back to Eisenhower who started the Atoms For Peace program. From 1966 to 1977 seventy five nuclear power plants with 90 reactors were built but only one since then. President Clinton proclaimed the all of the above energy policy but nuclear got little attention. Cheap oil and loud voices in the green new deal are keeping nuclear from developing.

Government

What will be the governments role in the coming era of deglobalization. As always the constitution should lead the way. The government should be ready, willing and able to defend the country against foreign threats. The government must expose and correct any private or public corruption. The government must encourage state and local authorities to create safe neighborhoods. The government must have a safety net for those who need extra help. The government must promote economic growth by using realistic regulations. The government must create an atmosphere where innovation thrives and individual dreams can be achieved. And finally it should be a government of the people, by the people and for the people.

Deep state

Eisenhower warned about the military industrial complex but there is more to it than that. Wall Street joins with the State Department, big corporations partner with the Defense Department and Homeland Security lines up with Silicon Valley. The revolving door between retired generals and big corporations is the oil in the bureaucratic machine that keeps the whole group working in tandem. The Treasury Department is the fast road to Wall Street big money jobs. Homeland Security is the path to Silicon Valley employment. Recent revelations show how former government officials held high positions in Twitter. This whole buddy system is not ideological, that is liberal or conservative, it is based on money and influence. It is the deep state. This is not a conspiracy that is hidden, it is alive and well and in plain site. They are not concerned since there are six companies that own the news media which is a just another part of the group. This whole kabal was not the result of some master plan but rather a slow development over the past 50 years. It is the way big companies grow if left unchecked. Those involved suffer from group think without realizing they have been co opted. This group has no concern about working people. They pushed ahead with globalization which sent the factory jobs overseas and led to areas like the rust belt while the wealth gap grew ever larger. Elected officials continue to believe that they are running the country when in fact they are just cogs in the wheel of this giant bureaucracy. The country starting about 10 years ago began to wake up and the first step was to challenge the global economy. It seems providential that at just this time Russia is blowing itself up and China is running out of people, opening the door for citizens of North America to begin the long process of returning power to the people.

Mexico

The rather extraordinary new president of Mexico is Claudia Sheinbaum. She is a populist from the left which shows that populism is not ideological. She succeeds Orbrador who was also a populist. She won 59% of the vote as the first female president. She is not Mexican but a Jew whose grandparents came from Lithuania. She is a Jew in a country that is mostly Catholic and only one percent Jewish. She has a PhD in Engineering. She like Orbrado before her proudly professes her independence from the US but in practice relies heavily on US trade which has resulted in lifting 9 million Mexicans out of poverty. The original NAFTA agreement hurt Mexican workers and caused their wages to drop. The new USMCA was a boon to Mexican workers. It increased trade and investment between Mexico and the US. It helped workers to form unions and secure better wages and working conditions. It helped labor reforms and set up training centers. It made it easier for small business to participate with US government procurement. Mexico is now the US largest trade partner having surpassed China.

Abortion

The new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds 61% of Americans say abortion should be legal in most or all circumstances in the first trimester of a pregnancy. However, 65% said abortion should usually be illegal in the second trimester, and 80% said that about the third trimester. Trump's position is in line with that since he says abortions should be legal up to 15 weeks with exceptions for rape, incest and life of the mother. Harris positions is not in line with the majority since she says abortions should be legal anytime including second and third trimesters. Melania Trump revealed her support for abortion rights Thursday ahead of the release of her upcoming memoir, exposing a stark contrast with her husband, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, on the crucial election issue. The article must mean that Malania supports late term abortions but it does not say that. The majority of women say they support abortion but they do not include late term abortions, that is abortions after 22 weeks.

Tariffs

The press is reporting that the Trump import taxes on Chinese goods will raise prices on American consumers and they are right. Trump placed import taxes on billions of dollars of goods from China and Biden kept these taxes. President Biden has increased the tax on EV's from China from 25% to 100%. In May Biden announced he would impose tariffs on steel, aluminum, semiconductors, batteries, minerals, solar cells,ship to shore cranes and medical products. Economist all agree that tariffs are not a good thing but they change their minds when countries use unfair tactics to keep their prices low.

Blockade

Some commentators are discussing bombing Kharg Island where Iran loads their oil tankers but no one seems to consider just putting up a blockade near the Straits of Hormuz. The Iranian ships could be turned back while allowing others from Saudi Arabia, Qutar and UAE to pass to provide oil for China and other far east countries.

REC's

Renewable Energy Certificates (REC's) are issued when a wind farm or solar farm or a home owner produces one megawatt-hour (MWh) of electricity so one REC is earned for each MWh. That REC can now be sold at the current market price. Companies will buy these REC's to meet their renewable goals. Amazon for example can purchase these and then say they are 100 % renewable even though the are still getting power from fossil fuel plants. The same is true for other industries.

LNG

Because of fracking the US has an abundance of natural gas which keeps energy prices low. Ammonia is made from natural gas and is responsible for the increase in grain production which has been significant. In 1950 corn production was 37 bushels per acre and today it is 177. The same is true for all crops and this has kept many countries from suffering from low food supplies. Natural gas is the main feed stock for chemical companies and many European companies are relocating to the US because of the low price of gas. Natural gas in the US cost about $2 and in Europe it is $8. Home heating cost in the US are four times cheaper than in Europe. If the US would go to natural gas for transportation the fuel cost would be cut in half. The US is the largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and expected to double exports by 2028. The US has 8 LNG export facilities and expected to have 17 more in the next five years. The expanded use of natural gas will do more to bring down the the problem of climate change than anything else other than going to nuclear power.

War

More specifically, when a renewable energy generator, like a wind or solar farm, produces one megawatt-hour (MWh) of electricity, exactly one REC is created. That REC can now be purchased and retired by anyone who uses a MWh of electricity. When that happens, they have officially used that renewable energy. Arcadia partners with renewable energy generators to source, verify, purchase and most importantly retire RECs on your behalf. Remember, once a REC is retired, it can never be sold again, as you’ve officially consumed that renewable energy.

China

The Chinese economy operates in a different manner than the US and can easily be misunderstood by the West. For example if the Chinese government wants to influence production cost it does not interact directly by offering cash incentives. It would not give cash to the steel industry but it might offer low interest loans or charge lower rates for electricity or not enforce certain regulations. If they wanted to buy or sell large amounts of US dollars they would not use the central bank since they have many state banks who could do that without the general public realizing what was going on.

Reshoring

Reshoring is on the way Companies invested a record $19.7 billion in June 2024 in the construction of manufacturing facilities, up by 18.6% from the already surging levels in June 2023, up by nearly 100% from June 2022, and up by 209% from June 2019, according to the Census Bureau today.

Copper

Americans don't like mining. The big elephant in the room regarding mining is even more problematic than is currently understood. The experts today talk about how the materials needed for wind and solar are mostly mined and Americans don't like mines and so most are mined in other countries. When the need for additional materials is calculated it is based on current mining cost but this is misleading. Take for example the mining of copper and all the other elements would tell the same story. In the last century mining for copper began with digging up the ore and crushing it into particles about 150 microns in size which is about half the size of a human hair. The ore itself was about three percent copper. These particles are then put in an aqueous solution where bubbles of air are introduced. Copper does not like water so it grabs onto an air bubble and rises to the top forming a foam which is scooped off. The foam contains 25% copper and this is further concentrated. The copper in the form of copper sulfate is then refined in a furnace to 99% purity. This whole process remains in effect today but the low hanging fruit has been mined so that the new mines contain copper at point one percent instead of three percent meaning 30 times more ore must be mined to get the same amount of copper. This lower concentration of the ore must be taken into account when final cost is calculated and also the additional piles of waste.

Income gap

Medicare withholds 1.45% of salary up to $200,000 for couples at which time it increases by .9% to 2.35% and this is matched by the employer. It covers all income with no upper limit. Social security is 6.2% from employer and employee up to $168,000. In order to close the income gap social security contributions could be increase to cover all income much like Medicare. Another step would be to have no social security deductions on the first $50,000 and then double the deductions to 12.8%. While most families with incomes below $50,000 pay no income tax they all pay social security tax. These are changes that can be made without any additional government agencies since social security and Medicare are already in place. Another way to reduce the gap is by making changes in the earned income tax credit (EITC) which started in 1975. Prior to that time if you were receiving public assistance (welfare) and went to work you would lose some or all of your public income. The government wanted to encourage people to work but in typical government fashion they just didn't eliminate the penalty for working they kept the penalty but added the EITC. Here is a typical benefit. A mother with two children works and earns $20,000 receives $5,500 in EITC but if she earns $40,000 the EITC drops to $2,100. This could be increased both in the earnings and in the benefit, once again without any new programs. A third way to help close the gap is the Child Tax Credit which is currently set at $2,000 per child could be increased to $5,000 and that would mean that a family of four would pay no income tax on earnings up to $140,000. Once again this requires no additional programs. Forth is to remove income tax on the first $50,000 of social security benefits. If these four suggestions were initiated the income gap would be cut in half over night. Until recently most people were not comfortable with income redistribution but the gap has gotten so wide that many are now willing to look at changes. Currently the top 20% of wage earners receive 50% of the income.

Population

An expert is a man who knows more and more about less and less until he finally knows every thing about nothing. Here are a couple of examples. In 1800 an expert in population Robert Malthus predicted that starvation was on the way because of over population The theory states that the supply of food cannot keep up with the growth of the human population, inevitably resulting in disease, famine, war, and calamity. What he did not anticipate was the industrial revolution which resulted in excess food. In 1968 a scientist, Paul Ehrlich wrote a book called,"The Population Bomb", From the opening page, it predicted worldwide famines due to overpopulation, as well as other major societal upheavals and advocated immediate action to limit population growth Here we are today only 60 years after Ehrlich's book and the world is facing depopulation. Here is a quote from the well known Medical magazine Lancet in March of this year By 2050, over three-quarters (155 of 204) of countries will not have high enough fertility rates to sustain population size over time; this will increase to 97% of countries (198 of 204) by 2100. As little as five years ago there were many articles predicting the world's population would increase to10 billion. Today the experts are predicting the population will decline.

Energy

Almost all of the economic progress made by civilization has occurred since the industrial revolution which began about the time America became a country. The basis of this progress was energy beginning with coal and moving into oil and natural gas or what are called fossil fuels. Because of energy, billions of people are no longer starving and other billions are enjoying healthier and longer life times. This can only continue as long as cheap energy is available but people are concerned that this energy, will in itself, destroy the world. The goal toward zero carbon is a waste of time as it just delays the ultimate answer which is nuclear power. Certain groups use the farce of zero carbon to promote social agendas and thus delay the march toward true clean energy which is nuclear. Ordinary citizens are asked to perform certain task to reduce carbon, things like sorting their garbage and ethanol from corn. The facts are clear that these things add carbon. The same is true of organic foods which add more carbon. Other things are even more ridiculous like getting rid of old light bulb, small volume toilet flushing and gas stoves are all just distractions. Meanwhile a billion people, mostly in Africa, are still using wood and dung to cook, heat and light. It is time for the scientific world to wake up and educate the political class in the physics of energy.

Prosperity

In the coming years the US will be called upon once again to bring the world from the edge of disaster as happened after WW 2. The Ukraine War is slowly destroying Russia and the Chinese economy is falling apart because of incompetent leadership which leaves North America as the dominating world power just as it was in the 1950's. After the US adjusts to the loss of globalization by doubling its industrial base it will be in a position to reach out and help Europe. At the start some countries will be aligned with the US and get a head start in the new world economy. Australia and Japan are ready to partner with the US and England is looking in that direction. The rest of Europe will see the many opportunities to partner with North American and the US government will help them join. North America will be independent from the rest of the world but will want to help just as it did after WW 2. This could lead to many years of peace and prosperity. Then the next step will to bring Africa into the modern world. All of these things can be accomplished if the right leadership arises to the challenge and that is a big if.

Immigration

Who is the ideal immigrant for the US at this time. He or she should be young, between 18 and 30 and fluent in English. It cost the government about $150,000 to educate a student from K thru 12 and basically what they learn is to speak, read and write English. An 18 year old immigrate who is fluent can do that. These young people are ready to fill the entry level jobs, they will marry and have children and become consumers. The value of the working force is two fold. First it produces and second in consumes. They will have 40 years to work to help pay for their retirement. Legal immigration allows the government to screen and select migrants who have more formal education, with particular job skills and can speak English. The illegals coming across the southern border will have to learn the language and the faster they do that the better jobs become available to them. The part of this group that is most problematic are young families because the children will take up space in schools and cost the government money for their education and it will be a number of years until they can contribute in the form of producing and consuming. Many native students struggle in school and students who cannot speak the language are at a further disadvantage. Young working age immigrants should be issued individual taxpayer identification numbers (ITIN's) which allows them to legally work. After five years of working they should be eligible for a Green Card which is the next step toward citizenship. To gain citizenship the applicant must show proficiency in English. This whole process will allow the country continue to accept legal immigrants while dealing with the influx of illegal migrants. This seemingly logical step by step plan to solve the immigration situation will be totally discarded by government infighting.

Border bill

During the 2022 mid term elections the expected red wave did not materialize and many experts blamed Trump because his preferred candidates lost 4 senate races, 11 house races and 10 governor races. The backing by Trump proved to be a flop. Fast forward to the vote on the immigration plan of 2024. Here the press said the bill failed because Trump pushed a no vote. In just two years Trump went from having very little influence to having a lot of influence. Chances are there were other important factors that determined the vote and not just Trump. One of these is that the bill would have allowed an unlimited number of illegal migrant children to enter the country. If this had passed the word would have gone out around the world and children from many countries would have been on their way to America. Another reason for failure was the bill was because of the $118 billion dollar cost only $20 billion went to the border.

De globalization

When the Soviet Union fell in 1990 the US realized it no longer had to protect the ocean shipping lanes for its allies and the door was opened for bringing manufacturing jobs back home. The need for shorter supply lines, which Covid emphasized, and the desire for customers to receive products promptly was a major influence in reshoring. The labor costs, particularly in China, were rising quickly. This cuts out the middle man, mostly transportation cost, which have doubled in recent years. The US has a skilled work force. The risk of patent infringement is much less when making things at home. The technology advancements will allow the new plants to be more efficient. The Chinese economy is suffering from many directions and the hope is they will decline slowly so the US has time to build up its industrial base to take on the new manufacturing that will be needed to replace the imports. Over the next ten years there will be millions of good paying, hopefully union, jobs that will require a high school education. Those going to college, unless they have economic security, will have to choose their studies based on the needs of business and many businesses will be setting up programs to help students in particular areas of study.

Reshoring

Reshoring is the word used to describe being jobs back home. It is helpful to look as a specific case. Appliances are one of the industries seeing the greatest employment growth. GE has just opened a plant that will be the prototype of many new plants. It is a state of the art water heater plant in New Jersey that will be vertically integrated meaning it will make many of the parts on site not just the finished product. Things like metal fabrication, welding and enameling of the steel. The plant is designed for future expansion. The plant will use high tech robotics run by team leaders and maintenance employees who will be trained on site. These will be high school grads whose productivity will be enhanced by machines and whose value will be rewarded with high pay and benefits.