Thursday, March 22, 2012

Gas price refinary

The price of gas is the big item in the news today and many experts are telling us why. Some say the rising price of oil is the cause and for them I ask the following: In 1998 oil was $10 per barrel and gas was one dollar per gallon. If you do the math that ratio tells you that oil at $100 per barrel should be gas at $10 per gallon.
Some say it is because we are exporting gasoline instead of selling it here in the US. Because of the slow economy we currently have an excess of gas in this country. Refineries are running at near capacity and we are producing more than we can use.
The cost at the refinery are broken down as follows:
• Taxes: 13%
• Distribution and Marketing: 8%
• Refining: 14%
• Crude oil: 65%

Gas at $3.50 breaks down as follows:
Oil $2.28
Refining $.49
Taxes $.46
Distribution and Marketing $.28
Refining is a costly business – not just because it’s heavily taxed at about 10% before a single barrel of gasoline is even sold, but because of the massive shipping, storage and actual product and refinery costs.
And though refining can experience periods when it has higher profit margins, on the average, it’s pretty low on the totem pole when it comes to profit margins. The average for the industry is somewhere between 3-5%
If the gross profit is 5% that means that the .49 cents per gallon cost above represents 2.5 cents per gallon.
So if it is not the cost of oil and not the cost of refining the oil what is it?
The price of gas is based on the world price as is all commodities and so long as China and India are willing to pay any price to get product the price will continue to rise. While the supply exceeds the demand in the US this is not the case in the world market. These two countries which represent 40% of the world’s population are growing at 9% per year and there is no end in sight. If the US would increase production of oil, like we are capable of, that would put downward pressure on the speculators and help some so if the president is looking for something to do he could open up drilling.
About the only thing on the horizon that would lower gas prices is if Europe goes into a recession.

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