Sunday, November 27, 2011

Supreme court

All across the news media today it was announced that the Supreme Court has agreed to rule on Obama care but that is misleading. The Court in fact said they would look at four aspects of the law and one of these was the main question concerning the individual mandate. This is the provision supposedly under the Commerce Clause that allows the Court to permit the government to regulate Interstate Commerce. The question is can the government mandate that people purchase a product from a private company. While that issue is getting all the attention another issue may postpone the whole thing until after the next election. That issue has to do with standing. In court parlance standing means does the person bringing the case have the right (standing) to do so. The law states that if a person refuses to purchase health insurance they will be fined and the question is, does the fine represent a penalty or a tax. If the Court decides it is a tax then a person would not have standing until they actually paid the tax which will not take place until after the election.
Recall that when Obama care was passed the administration said the fine for not having insurance was not a tax but a penalty. They had promised not to raise taxes on the poor and middle class. In order to get a delay on determining the constitutionality they might now say it is a tax.
If the court rules it is a tax then they will likely not rule on the rest of the program and ask for the process to start all over when the tax is paid. That will be sometime in 2014. On the other hand of a Republican is elected President and the Republicans get a filibuster proof senate (60 seats) they can just rescind Obama care.

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