Impeachment

The people who pushed the first impeachment against Trump fall into two categories. The first group says Trump ask the Ukrainian government to find some dope on Biden and he would send them some military equipment. The second says Trump asked them to make up some dope on Biden. Here is what Trump said to Zelenskiy "I would like you to find out what happened with this whole situation in Ukraine ... There's a lot of talk about Biden's son, that Biden stopped the prosecution and a lot of people want to find out about that. So whatever you can do with the attorney general would be great. Biden went around bragging that he stopped the prosecution so if you can look into it ... it sounds horrible to me." Congress said a Whistleblower had evidence that Trump broke the law but the Whistleblower was never produced. On hearing this Trump released the phone conversation and the Justice Department said the following. The conversation raised concerns by a whistleblower that Trump may have broken the law by asking for foreign help in the presidential campaign. But the Justice Department concluded that based on the evidence that's available, prosecutors "did not and could not make out a criminal campaign finance violation." Here is the charge from the Whistleblower that was the basis for the impeachment. In the course of my official duties, I have received information from multiple U.S. Government officials that the President of the United States is using the power of his office to solicit interference from a foreign country in the 2020 U.S. election.  This interference includes, among other things, pressuring a foreign country to investigate one of the President’s main domestic political rivals.

Campaigns

If the candidates are Trump and Biden this election will be the first in my lifetime that both candidates have a presidential records to run on. It will not be so dependent on promises. It should be easy for the voters to sit down and compare the two. The debates have shown to be irrelevant and should be disbanded. A new format should be developed. Starting 18 months before the election each of the candidates should write position papers on each of the major topics and these can be published and/or presented on TV. They can be run once per week and if new subjects come up these can be added to the list. will save billions on ads and help balance the field between rich and poor candidates. This would minimize the discussions of personalities and concentrate on the important issues of the day. The I will vote for this person because he or she looks good on TV will be replaced by policy positions. How quaint.

Estate

During a persons working years they move slowly and steadily toward building their estate. As the children leave home they build faster and when they pay off their home the move is faster yet. At retirement the game changes but many are not aware of the next step. When first retired the expenses are less than when working and as time passes expenses decline even further. The result is that it is time to begin the process of passing on your estate to your heirs. To do this properly requires time and often people wait too long and lose the ability to plan. Many just pass on assets when they die but they could have done so and enjoyed the feeling of helping. A down payment on a house for a grandchild can be more satisfying than leaving a $10,000 in a will. Often times money is spent on nursing home care that could have been transferred to children but not without time and planning.

Business

Here are three examples of surprise endings to business ideas. Things often don't work out the way they were planned. Nobel Prize winner Milton Friedman proposed that the free market is the most efficient way to produce goods and services. He said that if country A can make gigets of similar quality cheaper than other countries then they should make those and sell them to others. This made sense and with the onset of globalization this became the standard practice. Then along came China that started using government subsidies to produce products below the cost of production and that along with manipulating their currency put other companies at a disadvantage, not caused by the market. These lower cost caused other countries to move to China and resulted in job losses. In 1980 China opened up to the free market and everyone in the West just assumed that this would be the end of communism but that did not happen. The thinking by the experts was that a free economy would lead to a democratic government. Back in the fifties companies that had excess profits would use that money to expand their business and that would lead to new job. In the political jargon of the day it was called priming the pump at the top. The opposing view was to give workers higher wages and they would buy more products and that will lead to new plants and this was called priming the pump at the bottom. Both of these ideas held true until sometime in the 1970's when companies found out it was more efficient to just buy and existing company instead of expanding. Here they had a ready made work force and so priming the top no longer worked.

Taxes and such

Discussions about socialism and capitalism will eventually lead to the conclusion that most Western countries including the United States are a combination of free market and government regulations, the US being slightly more free market than Europe. One current example of how this compromise can get out of hand is the insurance business in, of course, California. In 1988 California passed prop 103 which allowed the election of the insurance commission, a position that had previously been appointed. The elected official then became a politician which means he had to be reelected and the best way to do that is to provide some benefit to those who vote. He did this by refusing the rate increases asked for by the insurance companies and California had the lowest home owners insurance per cost of the home in the country. Fast forward 30 plus years and guess what. Insurance companies are leaving California, big companies like Allstate, State Farm, Farmers and AIG. Many companies just went out of business .The insurance commission is now forced to allow rate increases and they are large in order to make up for the loss over the preceding years. Many people are forced to pay premiums that are 500% percent higher and that includes agreeing to deductibles of five or ten thousand dollars. A typical policy on a one million dollar home will rise from $1,800 per year to $8,000. This is what happens when government gets involved in the market much like wage price controls. This will hold down prices but in time the prices will rise quickly to make up for lost income. California did something similar in 1978 with Prop 13 which froze property tax and allowed only a 2% rise each year. This good deal was passed on from parent to child but in 2021 Prop 19 disallowed this loop hole. People can keep their low property tax rate but if they die or sell that is no longer available. For government and private enterprise to work effectively both sides must use common sense which these days is in short supply.

Climate problem

The well being of a country is directly connected to the amount of energy that country uses. The energy use per capital for Africa is 180 kWh and for the US it is 13,000 kWh. Africa's only chance to move up the economic ladder is to use coal. To a lesser but necessary degree the same can be said for most of Asia. About 65% of the people live on these two continents. The West has polluted the air for two centuries and now expects the rest of the world to remain in the dark ages so the air can be cleaned up. The efforts of Western countries to clean up the air by using wind, solar and EV's is just causing the other countries to dirty up their water. This is not a solution to the problem it is just exchanging one problem for another. The world has to wake up to the fact that the only answer is nuclear power.

BLM

Black Lives Matter (BLM) was founded in 2013 but did not have much money until the George Floyd situation in Minneapolis after which the collected some $90 million dollars. Questions began to arise as to what happened to the money. One of the co-founders Patrisse Cullors propose the original plan to hand over funds to grassroots groups doing the work of abolition but she reneged on the promise when the big bucks started to come in. The money went in many directions but here is on example. Damon Turner a man who fathered a child with Cullors formed a group called Trap Heals LLC and received $97,000 from B|LM. BLM pad $840,000 to Cullors Protection LLC a firm run by Paul Cullors, Patrisse's brother. Shalomyah Bowers, who serves as the BLM secretary was paid $2.1 million for consulting and fund raising. The bulk of the $90 million dollars was not accounted for and no investigation is underway.

Change plans

Since 2000 governments around the world have subsidized green energy to the tune of $5 trillion dollars. In 2000 the world got 86% of its energy fossil fuels and in 2022 it was 82%. The United States has set a goal of being carbon free by 2050. The current trajectory of 4% reduction in 22 years means by 2050 we will still be getting 77% of our energy from fossil fuels. As economies grow the demand for energy grows and places like Africa and India are growing rapidly. This means that the 77% figure is based on today's usage but that will be higher in the future. China committed to building two new coal plants per week in 2022. Does anyone think that there will be enough EV's sold to offset this. It is time for people to stop and think about solutions to climate change not just go hell bent for leather wind, solar and EV batteries. The current plans will not work and things need to change.

TPP

Globalization started to end before most people knew what it was. It started after WW 2 when the US declared they would use their navy to keep the oceans safe for free trade, for all those countries who opposed the Soviets. For the next forty years countries around the world grew rapidly by importing and exporting products. In the process one billion people were moved out of poverty during the greatest economic growth period in history. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1990 it was no longer necessary for the US to expend the resources to keep the seas safe and globalization came to an end. The big winners were developing countries in Southeast Asia, countries like China, South Korea and Vietnam. The big losers were blue collar workers in Europe and the United States. A smaller but important group of winners were high tech workers and the investment class. The latter group gathered more money than any time in history and the thus the wealth gap widened. There was an early warning for the middle income workers when Ross Perot, who ran for president in 1992, declared famously that NAFTA would create job loss when he said the giant sucking sound you hear is the sound of American jobs going to Mexico. Even more dangerous to American factory workers was China, a communist country which decided in 1978 to open up to a free market system. China's rapid development was then further accelerated when they joined the WTO in 2000. President Obama, not understanding the harm to the workers caused by global trading, proposed the Trans Pacific Partnership(TPP) and tried to pass it but congress was beginning to see the harm caused by international trade and would not vote for it. Trump wanting to bring jobs home shut down the TPP his first day in office and followed that up with import taxes on China. Trump recognized early on how China was using unethical ways to steal manufacturing jobs and campaigned promising to put a stop to it which he did. Biden followed up and the US is now in full onshoring mode. This will result in a doubling of US manufacturing in the next five to seven years.

Students

The mess in Baltimore schools is once again in the news and bears some looking into. There are 77,586 students in the city and the budget is $2.58 billion or $33,253 dollars per student. They have 9,565 teachers and 11,435 staff. The student teacher ratio is 8.1 students per teacher. The schools are 90% minority. In the Minneapolis school district there are 32,722 students and the budget is $654 million dollars or $19,986 per student. They have 2,375 teachers and 3,122 staff. The student teacher ratio is 13.8 students per teacher. The schools are 70% minority. District 196 here in the Southeast suburbs has 29,000 students and the budget is $390 million dollars or $13,482 dollars per student. The have 1,900 teachers and 2,100 staff. The student teacher ratio is 15.2 students per teacher. The district is 40% minority. Parent of students in inner city Minneapolis schools who are serious about education want their students to go to school in the suburbs and here is one reason. Test scores in Baltimore show 8% proficient, in Minneapolis 36% proficient and in the suburbs 54% proficient. This data shows it is not about money or student teacher ratio but other factors.

Arabs

As far back as 1973 Saudi Arabia has depended on the US for their security. Over those years Iran has coveted the Saudi oil but was kept at bay by US military power. When the US became energy independent their need for Saudi oil diminished and the relationship between the two countries took on a different flavor. Saudi at first tried to cozy up to China by selling oil without petrodollars but China cannot offer much protection since they are 7,000 miles away and do not have a long range naval capability. So now the Saudis are looking to Israel. The Abraham accords opened the door for Israel and the Arab states to developed relationships and now Saudi Arabia may join them. These Arab countries fear Iran and want to join forces with Israel for protection. Besides the Iranian desire to control the oil in the Middle East these countries are mostly Suni Muslims while Iran is mostly Shia Muslim and these two sects have never gotten along. This may lead to the long desired calming of relationships between the Arabs and the Jews.

Nuclear

The college educated White liberals are facing a dilemma. They understand that a country's well being is closely tied to the availability of electricity. The standard of living has risen dramatically over the past 100 years because of electric power. While the West has benefited greatly from this, the developing world has been left behind. The people of Africa are trying to catch up and their only chance is coal since it is widely available and affordable but environmentalist in the West are opposed. The West has spent 200 years puffing coal ash into the atmosphere but they want to deny this to the rest of the world. It poses a moral problem, especially to those who profess to be concerned about poor and down trodden but instead of considering nuclear power which could be shared around the world, they stubbornly hang on to wind and solar. Small thorium reactors can be shipped around the world and every country has an almost unlimited supply of thorium. This is China's long term plan. They currently have a small reactor up and running and plan to manufacture these on a assembly line and sell them to the world.

Migrants

The federal government has just authorized 500,000 migrants from Venezuela to qualify for "Temporary Protection Status" which means they can get work permits and social security cards. The use of the SSN in state drivers license systems is authorized by Federal law. To register to vote on line you need a social security number and a drivers license number. This will add new impetus to ballot harvesting.

War

As the support for the war in Ukraine weakens the government is looking for new ways to fund the war. Polls show that the majority of Americans do not want to send more money to Ukraine. The power brokers in Washington have now decided to add $24 billion dollars in aid for Ukraine to the continuing resolution bill before the congress. This is the bill needed to keep the government operating at full strength. It is backdoor way getting more money for Ukraine. President says we will continue to support Ukraine for "as long as it takes". Each month that passes more Americans are tiring of war. They are asking tough questions like what is the objective. It seems to many that we can't let Russia win because they will just be emboldened and go after other countries. We can't let Russia lose because they may resort to nukes. Without a stated goal it appears the answer is just keep the war going for as long as it takes.

Nuclear

To get one ton of uranium requires mining 350,000 tons of earth. Once the uranium is mined it is composed of two types. The first and most abundant is U238 at 99.3% while the useful part is U235 at only .7%. The next step is to enrich the uranium to the point where the U235 is up to 4% and this takes considerable time and energy. Once the enriched uranium is in the reactor only the U235 is producing energy but the free neutrons are hitting the U238 atoms and changing them into new atoms that will be dangerous for 100,000 years. These are in small amounts but must be stored in a safe place. Thorium is a different animal. First off it is three times more abundant than uranium and does not require any enriching since the entire amount is used as fuel. The result is that one ton of thorium produces as much energy as 220 tons of uranium. As a point of comparison to illustrate why nuclear is the answer one ton of thorium yields as much energy as 250,000 tons of coal. In addition thorium reactors can use up the bad elements produce in the uranium plants and long term storage is no longer needed.

Mines

There is a monster looming just over the horizon, waiting to attack and bring down the Greenies. Its name is mining. These groups are just now realizing that to move forward with wind and solar requires the mining, refining and disposing of materials like copper, aluminum, lithium, cobalt along with the rare earth metals. They are beginning to understand that the path they have chosen is merely exchanging clean air for dirty water. Deep down they know this and thus their refusal to mine in the United States. On the the other hand they don't feel right mining in other countries so for the time being they just ignore the problem but time is running out. Once they decide to face this problem they will be forced to consider nuclear. When they see how much better thorium small reactors are they will grudgingly rethink the situation and move toward nuclear. Because they have been misguided the move is starting late but it is not too late. With the proper focus by government and industry these small thorium reactors can be coming off the assembly like planes at Boeing. They are placed on a semi truck and hauled to the use point.

Climate

For two hundred years Western Europe and North America pumped huge amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere while they enjoyed the growth of the industrial revolution. Now the West is critical of Asia and Africa using coal to bring them up to date. Countries only progress as far as their energy supply grows and for the developing countries that means coal. While concern for climate change represents one side of the equation the other side is the moral imperative of allowing these developing countries the same opportunities that were awarded to the West. This is why most of the concern about climate change by the environmentalists centers around the US moving to wind and solar. It is uncomfortable to bring up the short comings in the developing world knowing about the past.

War

One of the main purposes of the World Bank is to finance the building of infrastructure in developing countries and reconstruction of war torn countries. Many of the projects are so large that only a few companies are big enough to handle the jobs, companies like Bechtel and KBR in the United States. Another big company often used is Halliburton a company mostly owned by Capital Investors and The Vanguard Group. War is a money maker for these firms. Other groups get in on the action with non construction projects. The 2023 Clinton Global Initiative (CGI) has opened in New York City with the announcement of several new programs and commitments, including the launch of a humanitarian network as well as financial pledges in support of nonprofits working in Ukraine. Both Hillary and Bill have been out pushing for continued support of sending help to Ukraine. The more the country is destroyed the more it will need help from international groups like the World Bank and the Clinton Global Initiative.

Taxes

When Trump was running for the presidency he refused to release his 1040's and many in the press assumed he was hiding something maybe even illegal. Others never thought that because his returns were audited every year. When he finally released the 1040's it was big bust. Everyone who understands real estate knows how you take advantage of depreciation and how income is shifted from year to year which leads to wide variations in income. Trump's forms were no exception. What was revealed is that Trumps wealth declined from $3.7 billion to $2.1 billion during his years in office. The 1040's also revealed that Trump gave large sums to charity and that he did not collect social security and he gave most of his salary to charity. This then ended the interest in his tax returns. These returns to not look like someone who is interested in making lots of money which is another attribute often assigned to Trump. One thing of interest not talked about is that he paid over a million dollars each year in tax preparations fees.

Uncle Sam

Much of the world sees the US like a rich uncle they don't like but one who gives them gifts. There are 193 countries in the UN and the US pays 20% of the cost. The US with 4% of the worlds population contributes 24% of the World Health Organizations budget. There are 30 countries in NATO and the US contributes 16% of the budget. The US has 160,000 troops stationed at 750 basis around the world at a cost of $21 billion dollars. Because of big brother USA, many countries spend a minimal amount on their own defense freeing up funds for social programs. The leaders of many of these countries brag about their national healthcare programs and compare them to the US. Now that globalization has ended and onshoring is in full swing look for the US to start reducing their contributions to world organizations and start closing overseas military basis. Uncle Sam will not be as generous in the future.

Onshoring

In 1992 the Soviet Union collapsed and everyone said, now what. Over the past 20 years the answer to that question has surfaced and it means the end of globalization and the beginnings of onshoring. It means bringing production back home. This allows for shorter supply chains and better national security. While these problems had been festering for years, the public only became aware when Covid hit. Companies which had been onshoring suddenly realized they did not have as much time as they thought and now the country finds itself in a race to build new facilities. It will take longer than anticipated and shortages will cause prices to rise and delays in production but in time all new facilities using the most modern engineering techniques will increase productivity and offset inflation. Many of the products that must be made at home are now coming from China and China is collapsing faster than anticipated, putting even more pressure on construction of new plants. This will mean labor shortages which will lead to higher wages as the old rust belt areas of the Midwest are reborn and Southern states with lower living cost and lower taxes join in the boom. Citizens will have to tighten their belts to deal with higher prices but after the dust settles in five or so years they will sing the praises of the new economy. The new NAFTA treaty will allow North American to grow rapidly using technology developed in the US and workers from Mexico.

Dress code

It was announced today that US Senators can wear hoodies and shorts on the senate floor. I immediately thought of my first day working as a sub teacher. I put on my suit and was pleased to see when I got to school that was not necessary. Now I wear Khakis and polo shirts. Some teachers still wear a tie and some of the women still wear dresses and they look more professional to me. Some female teachers wear jeans that are faded with holes. I think they do this to be more like the students and that is not a good idea. It's like a parent who wants to be their child's playmate. When I worked as a financial adviser I did not go to work in a tee shirt and shorts. Certain professions require a dress code and I believe US senator is one of those professions. As I think more about it maybe teachers should wear suits.

Dumping

Big news that is old news. China is dumping government subsidized cheap EV's in Europe. This in attempt to run VW out of business. No one should be surprised at this since that is the MO of China. China used this to accelerate the demise of the steel industry in America and is now doing the same thing to India. China is doing this to any American company trying to make solar panels. The use of coal power for energy, lack of safety for worker, few environmental regulations, low wages and most importantly government subsidizes allows China to make products below the cost of production and then dump them on the world market.

Home

With mortgage rates and rents going up many first time home buyers are asking should I rent or buy. Here in Hastings a two bedroom two bath apartment rents for $1,850 per month while a similar home sells for $300,000. To buy the home requires a 3.5% down payment or $10,500 and that is a stumbling block for most young buyers but the lender will approve a loan if the down payment is provided by a relative most likely a parent or grandparent. This requires a loan of $289,500 at 8% for 30 years or $2,124 per month for principal and interest. Add to this taxes, home owners insurance and mortgage protection insurance of $450 for a total of $2,624. Utilities are usually paid by the renter or homeowner so they are a wash. If the buyer can overcome the two hurdles of $10,500 down payment and the extra $824 per month they are in. This may require help from parents or grandparents but in the long haul things will work out. Rents increase at 2.5% per year so in 10 year the rent will be $2,500 and the home owners taxes and insurance will have increased by $100. The new comparison is $2,724 for home owner and $2,600 for renter. Houses appreciate at 3% so the new value of the home is $403,000 and the equity is $40,000. If relatives want to help a young couple get started this is good pathway. Instead of outright gifts that may be spent on things that do not appreciate, this money will be long term growth. Once these people are in a home they will continue to build equity over their lifetimes and this would be passed on to grandchildren. Many parents and grandparents are sitting on assets that will be passed on at their death. This is a chance to help and allows the donors to participate in the lives of the young people in a productive way. Remember you can't take it with you.

China

Beginning in the late 90's house prices started rising and this accelerated in the 2000's and finally the bubble burst in 2006. Many people were buying houses just to sell something called flipping. While this was bad here in the US it was much worse in China. There large real estate companies were formed to flip on an grandiose scale and this has led to a country threatening crash. Millions have lost their life's savings in real estate. This is happening while China is facing a shortage of working age people and companies around the world are moving out of China. Many experts believe that China will collapse before the end of this decade.

Nuclear

The first thorium reactor operated at Oak Ridge Nat'l Labs for four years back in 1965. The idea was abandoned in favor of uranium because the government wanted to make bombs and only uranium could to that. Meanwhile environmental groups like Greenpeace were opposed to nuclear and over the past 60 years have delayed at every opportunity the progress of nuclear. They now have said that was a mistake but we haven't learned our lesson. Today we have the new greens who want wind and solar and once again nuclear is put on the back burner. Everyone who understands the issue realizes that if we had stayed the course with nuclear, we would not be facing the climate problems we have today. People are becoming more informed about nuclear especially since the new thorium reactors are gaining traction and in time nuclear will take center stage but overcoming past prejudice takes time and there is some question as to how much time we have.

War

In 1937 Japan, a small island country, invaded China to get the raw materials they needed to survive. The US had to take a stand as the experts said if Japan gets away with this they will just invade other countries. In July of 1941 the US blocked oil shipments to Japan which meant the end of their economy. When a country is pushed far enough they will act like a cornered animal and strike out which Japan did on December 7, 1942 by attacking Pearl Harbor. Fast forward to 1991 and the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Gorbachev told Bush 41 that he would end the Warsaw Pact if the US promised not to expand NATO. James Baker, Secretary of State, assured Groby that would not happen. Declassified documents show security assurances against NATO expansion to Soviet leaders from Baker, Bush, Genscher, Kohl, Gates, Mitterrand, Thatcher, Hurd, Major, and Woerner Washington D.C., December 12, 2017 – U.S. Secretary of State James Baker’s famous “not one inch eastward” assurance about NATO expansion in his meeting with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev on February 9, 1990 At that time there were 12 NATO members. Over the years 19 more countries joined and each time the Russian leaders warned against the expansion. In 2008 Putin told the world that if NATO admitted Ukraine that would be a red line that Russia could not abide with. Many historians say that FDR blocked oil to Japan because the knew they would have to respond and he wanted them to attack so he could say they started the war. Some historians are now saying that the US policy since the end of the cold war has been to push Russia into attacking Ukraine. Perhaps in another 20 years secret documents will reveal what was going on behind the scenes.

Houses

There is a conundrum in the housing market that defies economic logic. There are more buyers than sellers which means the price of houses is rising but many of these buyers will not qualify for a loan. Average home price 2020 $336,900 2021 $397,100 2022 $454,900 Most home buyers are saving to get a down payment so most will use and FHA loan which only requires 3.5% down. With this type loan the borrower must purchase mortgage protection insurance which cost about $50 per month for each $100,000 of mortgage. In 2020 if you bought an average home for $336,900 and paid 3.5% down ($11,791) you would mortgage $325,108 at 2% for 30 years is a monthly principal and interest of $1,202. Add to that the cost of mortgage protection insurance of $168 and your total house payment is $1,370. This year the same house with a 3.5% down payment ($15,921) would cost $3,221 plus mortgage protection insurance of $227 for a total house payment of $3,448. Add to that property tax which averages one percent and insurance at one half percent and the total cost the lender sees has risen from $1,791 in 2020 to $4,016 in 2022. The lender wants this payment to be no more than 30% of your gross which means in 2020 you had to earn $71,648 to qualify for the average home but in 2022 that figure was $160,640. Since the medium family income has decreased from $78,000 to $74,000 it is difficult to understand why demand for houses has increased. In addition many people do not want to sell their home because current rates on a 30 year fixed are over 8% and just three years ago the rates were under 2%. The result is there are not enough affordable houses on the market.

Unions

As onshoring gets underway there are opportunities for unions to strengthen their contracts and organizing new companies. This summer the Teamsters negotiated a very favorable arrangement with UPS and the auto workers are now trying to gain some headway. Private union membership, which had been declining for 40 years, increased by 200,000 in 2022. As companies begin building new facilities there will be a need for workers and this opens the door to better contracts. Businesses will be expanding and there is a shortage of workers so this is the time for unions to make hay.

Hunter

Hunter Biden was indicted today by David Weiss five years after the offense was committed. It had nothing to do with Weiss being appointed special prosecutor since the offense occurred in Delaware where Weiss always had the authority but chose to drag things out. He was pushed into taking action because IRS whistle blowers messed up the case. This same delay tactics will happen now and it will take until after the election to reach a verdict. If Joe loses the election he will pardon his son before he leaves office. The real test for Weiss is will he pursue the tax case against Hunter because that will lead to Joe. This too can be delayed with various legal maneuvers until after the election with the same result. If the house investigators make it too difficult for Weiss to cover up he can drag things out until after the election. If Joe wins the election and the republicans maintain control the investigations will continue.

Natural gas

The price of natural gas in 1950 was $1.40 and if that price rose along with inflation the price today would be $25.94 when in fact the price today is $2.73. Fracking had been around since 1947 but it was 2005 when it went big time. Since then the supply of natural gas has increased and allowed exports to increase from less than one trillion cubic feet to just over 7 trillion. This at a time when the world needed the gas. The US is building more liquid natural gas (LNG) export facilities while Europe is build facilities that can except (LNG). This at a time when Russian natural gas is no longer available to Europe. Natural gas produces far less CO2 than other fossil fuels and does not emit heavy metals like lead and mercury and does not cause acid rain. It is the perfect go between while the world wakes up to the fact that the answer to climate change is nuclear.

Impeachment

Morning Joe says that all democrats he talks to want Biden to step down. He said they feel that way privately but not publicly. This shows a united party that walks in lock step even to the point of hiding their true feelings. So the question is why they have been given the go ahead to come out publicly expressing their concerns about Biden's ability to make it through a second term. There is a lot of speculation on this matter and one of the theories has to do with the deep state. Some feel that the Justice Department is somehow entangled with the Biden family enterprises and they do not want this to become public. This cabal has been able to keep things under wrap but now that congress has decided to open an impeachment inquiry, Justice can no longer slow walk and hide information. They feel if Joe drops out the investigation will be over. That may not be true but they can't take the chance. At this point this is all conjecture.

Biden

Polls show that the public does not want either of the leading candidates for president. Trumps fate will be determined by state primaries but Biden's is set by the Democratic National Committee (DNC). The DNC as decided Biden is the candidate no matter what his situation is at the time of the election. The only thing that can stop this is either Biden decides not to run or he is unable to run do to some physical or mental ailment. The DNC is staying with Biden because they believe he has the best chance to beat Trump and secondly they cannot chose someone else other than Harris. This all changed today when David Ignatius came out and said Biden is too old. Most democrats were saying this behind the scenes but now the cat is out of the bag. Ignatius is the guy the left often uses for leaks and this time maybe its the plan to dump Joe. This would lead to a primary which would also allow them to dump Kamala. This all has to be done before Thanksgiving or its too late. If Joe gets sick or dies after that its all Kamala for the dems.

Migrants

Virtue signaling is a phrase that is popular in the current vernacular and it means, the public expression of opinions or sentiments intended to demonstrate one's good character or social conscience or the moral correctness of one's position on a particular issue. On outstanding example in the news these days revolves around sanctuary cities. Mayors of many northern cities spoke glowingly of their desire to care for illegals crossing the southern border by setting policies that would welcome these desperate people. They assumed the high ground and criticized the way the border cities were treating these migrants. Then the migrants started showing up in sanctuary cities and things changed and changed quickly. Now these same mayors are saying they don't want these migrants because they cause too much trouble. The mayors of border cities were accused of being mean spirited by not welcoming the migrants. They were looked down upon in a way that only virtue signaling proponents can signal as they paraded their moral correctness in their daily press briefings. Here is Mayor Adams speaking two years ago. Speaking to reporters at the time, the mayor said: 'As the mayor of New York, I have to provide services families that are here, and that's what we're going to do - our responsibility as a city, and I'm proud that this is a Right to Shelter state, and we're going continue to do that.' That was then, this is now.

Impeachment

Trump's second impeachment began in the house on January 13th. After two hours of discussion he was charged with incitement of insurrection that occurred on January 6th. Many marveled at the speed with which the government acted. The investigation began after the house had voted with democrats saying no investigation was necessary because the video of the riot was proof enough. It sounded much like an old Western where the cry is give him a fair and then hang him. For any crime and in particular something as serious as impeachment of the president the investigation should be conducted before the charge is made.

Crime

Morning Joe has returned to his republican roots. Today he says that we need more police especially in minority neighborhoods. He said wealthy liberals living in safe white areas thought that fewer police would reduce the misdeeds of some police but those in Black areas were asking for more police. Everyone who understood the issue knew this was the case. These White elites got caught up in the concept of equity and pushed that into going easy on crime in order to reduce the number of Blacks being arrested. What has to be done now to compensate for the overreaction is to follow the policies that were so effective in the 1990's called broken windows. They started to charge people with small crimes like jumping the turnstile on the subway and this led to a reduction in all crimes. They used computer information based on crimes the night before to determine where special police presence was needed. They used stop and frisk to remove guns from the street. Today they can start by making sure there are consequences to things like shop lifting and car jacking.

War

Having spent some time in the chicken business, I can tell you that the feed mills change their formulae daily depending on the price of different grains but they maintain the same protein level. With this in mind the world is going to suffer a shortage of grain because of the war in Ukraine and it is the poor people in Africa who will be hurt to the point of starvation. The US uses 150 million tons of corn each year making corn ethanol. A portion of that could be temporarily diverted to food production but no one is even talking about it. It seems that in trying times it is always some poor soul in Africa that takes the hit. Its somewhat like the war itself in that most people in the US are not directly affected so there is not much interest in the war. The news media rarely even reports on the war except to report another billion or so being sent to Ukraine and who knows how much of that is diverted so someones private pocket. Ukraine and Russia are both noted for corruption.

Mexico

The way news is presented today is like reporting on an iceberg. The ten percent exposed is what is reported and before there is time to look beneath the waves the next berg comes along and there is a new story. Case in point. Trumps relationship with Mexico. During his campaign Trump made several negative remarks about Mexicans that the press jumped all over but after he was elected they went on to bigger things. Trump and Mexican President Obrador developed a good working relation despite Trump's insistence on a wall because Obrador liked Trumps trade policies. Obrador was a center left populist and Trump a center right populist during a period when populism was gaining strength. The two built a relationship based on their respect for each other's nationalist, authoritarian tendencies and their ability to stay out of each other's way on domestic issues. Obrador agreed to keep asylum seekers in Mexico and put Mexican troops on their southern border. The result was a deep reduction in the number of illegal crossings. The new NAFTA helped Mexico to further interwine with US manufacturing and greatly increased imports from Mexico especially food products. This closeness will be of great benefit as the US is in the process of bringing jobs home from Asia and Mexican workers will be and important part of the onshoring.

War

This years G20 statement weakened the stand against Russia by not including words blaming Russia, as was the case in last years statement. Polls in July of this year showed that Americans support for funding the war is waning. 55% say congress should not authorize additional funding compared to February when 62% said America should be doing more. The longer this war drags on the less support it will have and in time, probably years, the world will force a negotiated peace. It will not be too soon for the Ukrainian people. Here is a poll from August of this year. CNN Poll: Majority of Americans oppose more US aid for Ukraine in war with Russia Updated 6:11 AM EDT, Fri August 4, 2023 European support for the war is still very strong and they are making the biggest sacrifices going without Russian natural gas. Germany's chemical industry is heavily dependent on natural gas.

Climate v war

I have decided that I am out of touch with the America people or at least the press. I listened this AM to Biden's news conference from Hanoi and was astounded to hear him say that global warming is a more frightening than nuclear war. I immediately thought there goes another big blunder but when I watched the talking heads discuss the speech they made no mention of his remark.

California

In many articles about climate change California is the head of the class when it comes to going green. In recent years they closed down 6 nuclear powered plants and plan to close their last one in two years. The state leads in solar energy but there is a catch. During the day excess energy is sold on the grid to nearby states and then at night it is repurchased but the energy repurchased is often produced by fossil fuels. A new rule establishes that by 2035 all new cars and light truck will be zero emissions. This means many more solar farms. A recent article in Grist reports that most used solar panels are shipped to developing countries that have little electricity and weak environmental protections, to be reused or landfilled. Grist is an American non-profit online magazine founded in 1999 that publishes environmental news and commentary. Grist's tagline is "Climate. Justice. Solutions." There are no lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese or graphite mines in California since these would dirty up the ground water. The mining and processing of these metals is done elsewhere, mostly overseas in poor countries that have few restrictions. Some in America want the rest of the country to emulate California.

America

From the end of WW 2 until about ten years ago the world had a love hate relationship with the United States. Because America was so powerful and so wealthy many countries were jealous and/or didn't trust America but they kept quiet because they needed America. It was the US navy that kept the seas free so all countries could trade without fearing that their products would be hijacked. This meant that most countries did not have to endure the expense of maintaining a navy. In addition the countries in the Western Hemisphere along with Western Europe and Japan did not need an army since the US had troupes in all those areas. The money they would have spent on defense was set aside for things like pensions and healthcare. Whenever they saw the US as arrogant or pushy they would just smile and be thankful for the great social programs they could afford. As globalization comes to an end things will change. First off the seas are no longer safe so any country that depends on trade for survival is in danger and will have to take steps to secure their safety. In times past this led to regional wars as countries who needed things would just take them from a weaker neighbor. Second the great US economic engine that has been spread around the globe is now coming home. The US represents 4% of the worlds population but 25% of the worlds GDP. In the new world the US will be producing most of it consumes here at home. From this point on the love/hate relationship with the US will be mostly hate.

Lines

One of the major advantages that small nuclear reactors (SNR)have over wind and solar has to do with transmission lines. Windmills and solar panels must be located in places where the wind blows and the sun shines and this is most often far away from the use point. This will require the addition of many miles of new high voltage lines. With SNR the reactor is located near the use point and requires very little new lines. Since wind and solar are intermittent power sources they require a back up whereas SNR's run 24/7. Low voltage lines will still run to small use points as they do today and will not require any new lines. As coal plants shut down SNR's can be moved into the same spot and existing lines and other equipment like generators can remain in service. A current nuclear plant uses 100 acres per million megawatt hours, solar needs 3,200 acres and wind uses 17,800 acres. All of the solar acres put that land out of business but wind acreage can still be used for farming.

Censor

When Elon Musk took control of Twitter it was revealed what many users already knew that some things and some people were being blocked. It exposed two ways that the government was censoring content. First and most common was to declare some news as misinformation and asking Twitter not to allow. The second was to declare a national emergency as was done with Covid and the government is allowed to censor. The authorities granted to the President by section 1702 of this title may only be exercised to deal with and unusual and extraordinary threat with respect to an national emergency. With respect to Acts of Congress authorizing the exercise, during the period of a national emergency, of any special or extraordinary power, the President is authorized to declare such national emergency. Such proclamation shall immediately be transmitted to the Congress and published in the Federal Register.

Ask why

As globalization winds down, this a good time to look back and try to figure out what happened. After WW 2 when American guaranteed the safety of the seas countries around the world started trading with one another. In the past if a country was limited in development because they had no coal they were stymied but under the new rules they could trade food for coal with some other country even a country far away. This opened the door to a world wide economic boom and led to bringing a billion people out of poverty. But like all stories there was a downside. The American middle income workers began to lose their jobs as manufacturing moved over seas. Starting in about 1965 the American dream began to fade away. The dad who had a good paying job with benefits ended up with a low paying job without benefits and mom had to go to work. Every four years at election time these working families were told that vote for me and things will change but it didn't happen. A glimmer of hope sprang up when Reagan got the middle income democrats to side with him but he failed them. Over a dozen election cycles these people were left to fend for themselves and then along came Trump. He said he was going to drain the swamp and this was music to their ears. He is somebody that will make a difference the voters thought. Of course all those in power were totally stunned when Trump won the election. Instead of asking what happened they chose to vent their frustration on Trump. Did they learn anything from this experience. Did they think why were the white college educated who used to be country club republicans and the blue collar democrats who used to be working class switch sides. Rather than admit that both parties turned their backs on the working people they choose instead to say its all Trumps fault. Will Trump have to win again before they ask why or is their fear of being drained so great that they cannot see the forest for the trees.

Election

Looking as various political polls certain subjects appear to be more important to voters. Among these are immigration, abortion, climate, crime, inflation, energy, income gap and education. If these were the issues that decide the next election that would be great. As things stand now that will not be the case. If Biden runs against Trump it will be a man who is accused and maybe convicted of crime or crimes verses a man who is in cognitive decline with possible involvement in his sons criminal activity. The issues most people care about will be secondary. What will the debate questions be if there is a debate. The people will be short changed if issues are overshadowed by the personal problems of the candidates.

Taiwan

To many people who study the issue, it appears that China's economy will collapse during this decade. Instead of companies moving to China they are moving out of China. China depends heavily on imports and exports and the safety of the seas is now in questions since the US has moved away from globalization. The population is short on working age people which means low productivity and low consumption. The fear is that China will attack Taiwan in order to distract from the internal economic problems, a strategy that has been used throughout history in many countries. That leads to the fear that some Americans have. Will the press along with the military industrial complex begin to push the US to intervene to protect Taiwan. Here is a plausible course of action. If China takes over Taiwan they will be emboldened to expand further into South Korea, Vietnam and finally Japan. This means their next move will be to the West. The US must act now or it may be too late. Remember how the world sat by and watched Hitler. Remember when Chamberlain returned from Munich and said, peace in our time. We cannot afford to make that mistake again. Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Will the American people once again fall in line and go to war.

Streets

People living on city streets has grown into a problem. They are euphemistically referred to as homeless as that seems to resolve them of any wrong doing but in fact the majority of these people are either mentally ill and/or addicts. They do not want to live in shelters or go to rehab because in both places no drugs are allowed. They live next to their source of drugs and that is what they want. When individual family members make it easy for addicts they are called enablers so the states have now become enablers but they are never referred to in that way. In the 1960's states led by good-hearted governors like Reagan in California, started to remove patients from mental health facilities. Three forces drove the movement, the belief that mental hospitals were cruel and inhumane, the hope that new drugs offered a cure and the desire to save money. Some cities are more lenient in their dealings with addicts and so these people tend to congregate in those cities. Cities like Minneapolis and Chicago are less likely to have this problem because winters make it difficult to live on the street. California is the poster state for this problem. They have made a number of attempts to alleviate the problem but things have only gotten worse. It is not for lack of money since their budget went from a $100 billion dollar surplus to a $32 billion dollar deficit in one year.

Chips

The push to bring home computer chip business is in full swing. Taiwan based TSMC the worlds largest chip maker will triple its investment in the US to $40 billion and bring cutting edge 3 nanometer chip production to the US. Samsung will build a $17 billion chip plant in Texas. Samsung is leading in the race to produce a 2 nanometer chip. These are the top end chips used in the most sophisticated equipment. All chip makers rely on a machine made only by a Dutch company ASML and 80% of their sales go to TSMC, Samsung and US company Intel which is currently building a $20 billion facility in Ohio. The smaller the chip the more expensive it is to manufacture. The US makes only 12% of the worlds chips but that is changing rapidly. Low end chips are used in home appliances. Next level the chips are used in autos then smart phones but the high end chips are for AI.

Energy

The world is moving toward an energy transition but it is going in the wrong direction. Two adjustments to thinking must be made before the start. First that wind and solar will not do the job and second electric cars are not the future. A more realistic approach is to simultaneously begin the transition to natural gas for transportation and begin manufacturing thorium power plants. These are small reactors and made on an assembly line and sent to the use point minimizing the need for power lines. As the need for more power increases just add another unit. Each unit is enough to power 10,000 homes and fits on a semi truck. These reactors shut down by themselves if power is lost and they can use existing nuclear waste as fuel. For cars it is important to maintain the internal combustion engine(ICE) which will eventually use hydrogen. Thorium plants can produce hydrogen by breaking down water. The hydrogen is then used as fuel and the only bi product is water. No need to mine, process and dispose of the materials needed for wind, solar and EV batteries. Hydrogen can then combined with CO2 to make liquid fuels. The CO2 is removed from the air and returned to the air when burned. This is carbon neutral and can provide fuel for jets, big trucks, heavy military and construction equipment, locomotives and ocean liners.

EV's

As the United States and the world runs headlong into electric cars many potential problems go by the wayside. The number of charging stations needed is often discussed but where the station gets its power is not mentioned. It so happens that most people will charge their cars at home at night but this puts an extra load on transformers that are designed to cool at night. Add to that summer temperature where the air conditioners run at night and many transformers are not able to carry the load. As the demand for charging increases the stress on the already over loaded grid reaches a brake point and new transmission lines must be installed. This is followed quickly by the building of new power sources which means windmills and solar panels and all of this including the batteries for cars means more mining and refining. Then what is done with all the materials when they wear out. On top of all this people like electric cars until they have one and then are not that excited about buying another one sort of like convertibles in times past. Every body wanted one but one was enough.

Taiwan

America's two biggest threats, China and Russia, have chosen to self destruct but by different means. Russia the big bully on the playground got punched in the face by a little kid, Ukraine and now the rest of the kids, NATO have decided to chase the bully off the field. The cost of the war, the unexpected ineptness of the military and the sanctions have made Russia realize that they made a big mistake. It may take many years for them to face the fact that they lost, much like happened to them in Afghanistan but they will eventually lick their wound, literally and figuratively and head for home. The West can sit by and watch Russia slowly lose while Ukraine sinks into a morass of destruction or they can step in and negotiate a peace. China was the big beneficiary of globalization but that has come to an end. It was their constant manipulation of their currency while turning all power over to one man that set them on the wrong course. Add to that the decline of children as people moved from the farm to the city along with the government instillation of the one child policy and they now do not have enough young workers which means not enough consumers to maintain a healthy economy. The West, led by the US, is pulling out of China and bringing jobs home. Over the next few years the US will double its manufacturing resulting in an economic boom. This will bring on inflation but in short order productivity will out pace cost and inflation will stabilize. It will be a return to the 50's when people had good paying jobs and wages outpaced the cost of living. Private union membership, which today is at 6%, will return to the 30% of the 1950's. The big fear is that China acting like a wounded animal will strike out at Taiwan to distract the peoples attention from the collapsing economy. For this reason the US must set a course to start manufacturing the high end chips currently produced in Taiwan. The saving grace is that the Chinese military may see the folly in invading Taiwan and revolt but it is more likely that Taiwan will suffer. The West will not travel half way around the world to engage in a war with China to protect Taiwan unless once again the military industrial complex gets its way. This time the American people will refuse to send American troops to die for an island thousands of miles away.

Green

With all the interest in green energy, the question comes up as to who are the interested groups. First off there is a small group of people who get Grant money to write articles about the virtues of green and evils of fossil fuels. Second a slightly larger group of people whose business depends on manufacture and instillation of windmills and solar panels. Third is an even larger group who see climate change as a way of promoting social change. Finally there is the largest group composed of ordinary citizens who have not looked into the issue but accept what the press tells them which is we must go green or the planet will die. All of this is slowly changing as the facts come out and the last group of people are suddenly exposed to information which is contrary to what they were earlier told. In time the benefits of nuclear will win out but valuable time has been wasted.

Speech

The subject of free speech is in the news and people are talking about the issue which is a good sign. The first test of free speech came in 1919 in the case of Schneck vs US where Justice Holmes argued speech could only be punished if it presented,"a clear and present danger" of imminent harm. Mere political advocacy was protected by the First Amendment. In subsequent rulings a few narrow categories of speech were not protected from government restrictions. These include incitement, defamation, fraud, obscenity, child pornography, fighting words and threats. Even in these conditions if the government censors the case can go to court for a final decision. The reason the courts sometimes get involved is to interpret each incident. Take the issue of fighting words. The Supreme Court first defined fighting words in Chaplinsky v New Hampshire (1942) as words which by their very utterance, inflict injury or tend to incite an immediate breach of the peace. The difference between incitement and fighting words is subtle, focusing on the intent of the speaker. Inciting speech is characterized by the speaker's intent to make someone else the instrument of his or her unlawful will. Fighting words, by contrast, are intended to cause the hearer to react to the speaker. What we can all learn from this is that I have too much free time on my hands and must get back to subbing

Slander

One of the unexpected outcomes of Musk's takeover of Twitter was the extent of how free speech was threatened. It was not just the company's attempt to determine what was true and what was misinformation but Homeland Security working through the FBI and CIA were encouraging Twitter to ban information on things like Covid that the government deemed misinformation. Private industry can censor if they choose but the government is not allowed to censor. The government thus was circumventing the law by going through social media. The danger was quickly seen when Twitter was told not to allow information about Hunter Biden's laptop. Many people believe that this effected the outcome of the election but there is no proof. What is new in all of this are words like misinformation and disinformation. The government attempted to ban certain information calling it mis or dis. Many see this as an attack on free speech. The first amendment does not prohibit lying. In 2012 the Supreme Court held for the first time that lies (verifiable factual falsehoods) were protected speech under the First Amendment, United States v. Alvarez. A reasonable solution is to allow all speech that is legal, that is not subject to defamation and slander laws.

Kim Un

It was announced yesterday that Kim Jung Un will meet with Putin to discuss joint naval operations. This is of little concern to the West since neither of these countries has a navy worth talking about. The real concern is that Un can trade arms for food. It is also a back door way for China to pass arms through North Korea and then to Russia. The result will be to extend the war in Ukraine where more Ukrainian citizens will be killed and injured. This will hopefully put pressure on the West to reach a negotiated peace.

Bureacracy

Over the past 30 plus years the country has witnessed the formation of a forth branch of government which goes by the name bureaucracy. These are unelected officials who work mostly in Washington DC and remain in their jobs as one president leaves and a new one comes in. Some of the higher ups come and go with each administration but second tier and below jobs remain mostly unchanged. Many years ago Eisenhower warned against the dangers of the military industrial complex and in time other groups joined. Top ranking officials in the Treasury Department got real cozy with big Wall Street firms and the revolving door allowed poorly paid bureaucrats to earn high salaries after leaving government. Next we had Defense department generals taking jobs in the defense industry. And more recently the bureaucrats in the Justice department going to work for Silicon Valley firms. All of these disparate groups overtime became known as the deep state. It was not any particular political party but a combination of, I scratch your back and you scratch mine sort of an arrangement. No one planned it, it just evolved. The result is two governments. The one we are all familiar with, the one we elect and the other which is hidden in plain site which we call the deep state. The purpose of all these groups is to get money and power and they have achieved that goal. Elected officials soon find out that they must go along to get along and their reward is laws passed that encourage campaign donations which assures reelection. Left out of this circle of friends is the ordinary citizen who is mostly unaware of what is happening but just happens to be the tax payer who funds this whole gang of interlopers.

Ukraine money

The original purpose for aiding Ukraine in their war against Russia was the fear that if Russia took Ukraine that they would be emboldened and move on to the next country. Now that the world has had a chance to see the mighty Russia army, do those who feared Russia might attack another country still feel that way. If not is it time to negotiated a peace agreement and send Russia home with a promise not to invite Ukraine into NATO and allowing them to keep the Dombas region. This gives Putin a way to save face and puts a stop to what will be the destruction of Ukraine along with many thousands of casualties on both sides. The ineptness of the Russian military should convince the West that Putin will not attack another country any time soon and he is already 70. It will take Russia years to rebuild its military and the Russian people will be in no mood to go on the offensive again. The US has sent $135 billion to Ukraine in 18 months and there is no reason to believe that won't continue. Let's use future money to rebuild Ukraine.

Gore

The big misinformation drive regarding climate change began in 2006 with former VP Al Gore and his presentation called, An Inconvenient Truth. He took factual information and by exaggeration and leaving out salient points gave a false impression of what was going to happen. The result was he won many accolades among which were two Emmy's, Time man of the year and the Nobel Peace Prize. The ideas he published were readily accepted by the press because he was saying what they wanted to hear. The first sign of discontent came when some scientist objected to using the book in schools. This represented the initial use of the strategy later used by critical race theory (CRT). The book was designed to scare the readers by leaving out part of the story. As the scientist later carefully reviewed the book they uncovered nine instances where hyperbole was used to exaggerate certain points taken out of contents. Gore said the icecap in Greenland was melting and suggested it would cause the sea to rise seven meters and then proceeded to describe the devastation this would cause. Scientist confirmed this calculation but Gore neglected to mention this melting would take many centuries but the time frame was not mentioned. This led to saying the polar bears are drowning because sea ice is melting and some bears did drown but later evidence showed it was because of a storm. He said islands in the South Pacific being inundated and citizens were being evacuated to New Zealand but no such evacuation occurred. There are six other instances where Gore used misleading methods to exaggerate. Years later when confronted with these cases Gore responded by saying he had to exaggerate to get peoples attention and that is still going on today. Climate change is a problem and there is no need to exaggerate. What Gore did with his twisting of facts was to cause people to doubt other data that was more accurate.

War

Zelensky fires defense ministry because of corruption. Experts say this has been going on for sometime. When billions of dollars are sent it is no surprise to many that some of these billions get into the wrong hands. This system should be run by people who know exactly what war is and why cynicism and bribery at a time of war is high treason, Zelensky wrote on social media. What kind of signal is Zelensky sending when the punishment for high treason is getting fired. This country had a reputation of corruption before the billions from the US started pouring in. For those who were not around and/or for those who have forgotten here is a quote from the Vietnam days. The United States consistently identified corruption—defined here as efforts of government officials to enrich themselves or close associates using public funds—as one of the most pervasive problems within the South Vietnamese government. Will this be a wake up call for US officials.

Greens

As the US looks toward Greentech (wind and solar) a new term has surfaced, something called environmental justice which is the fair treatment and meaningful involvement of all people regardless of race, color, national origin, on income with respect to the development, implementation, and enforcement laws, regulations and policies. With that mouthful, how does this effect going green. It turns out that in order to replace fossil fuels with wind and solar, there is a need for many metals that can be produced only by mining and therein lies the problem. The US can buy these materials from countries where they are mined or the US can mine them here. These metals are available in the US but most are located on Native American lands. This means years of court cases far into the future and in the meanwhile the US must go to other countries where environmental concerns are not that important. Even though the environmental justice says of all people the same concern for people in other countries will not be followed. OR will the white man once again run roughshod over the Native American. Will the Greenies turn their heads while the courts act quickly to approve the mines. Here in Minnesota there is an example of what to expect. In 1989 PolyMet leases mineral rights from US Steel. In 2000 the company gains rights to the deposits. In 2019 US Army Corp of Engineers approves the permit. In 2021 the MN Supreme Court strikes down the permit.

Green

I have done a deep dive into the problems of climate change and everyone who studies the issue without political bias comes to the conclusion that wind and solar cannot replace fossil fuels. But lets suppose that the countries of the world got together and decided to spend the trillions needed to mine, process and dispose of all the materials. What we end up with is having clean air and dirty water and we still need backup for when the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow not to mention some fuel for airplanes, military equipment, heavy construction machines along with ocean liners and locomotives. These same experts all come to the conclusion that nuclear is the answer.

SS taxable

One of the Biden campaign promises was to remove the tax on social security benefits and a bill has been introduced to the senate called, Senior Citizens Tax Elimination Act, to do just that. This will not help the poor but will help middle income people and is one way to fight the income gap. The money paid into social security was with after tax dollars and was received tax free but in 1983 that was changed so that those with certain incomes would start to pay tax on the benefits which was double taxation. Here is how it works for retirees. You add up all your income plus one half of your social security benefits and that exceeds $32,000 for people filing joint part of your social security will be taxed. Here is an example. John gets $2,000 per month and Mary gets $1,000 from social security. John gets $1,000 per month in a pension and Mary's pension is $600. The total pension income is $19,200 and total social income is $36,000. You add one half of the social security which is $18,000 to the $19,200 pension and you get $37,200. Next subtract $32,000 from that and you get $5,200. One half of that or $2,600 is taxable. As other income increases the amount of social security taxed increases to a maximum of 85% of your total social security benefit. For those who would like to determine how much of their social security will be taxed here is an excellent site. https://www.calcxml.com/calculators/how-much-of-my-social-security-benefit-may-be-taxed?skn=#results

Sachs

Jeffrey Sachs is a well known economist who appeared weekly on Morning Joe but has been absent for the past year or so. The reason is now apparent as he opposes the war in Ukraine. Just like Vietnam the press has joined forces with the military industrial complex to promote war. Recall that during the cold war the US made friends with dictators in order to fight communism. The CIA intervened in foreign governments both overtly and covertly. The war today has gotten tangled up with politics and many who in their hearts feel one way will not speak up because it conflicts with their political views. The Ukrainian people have become pawns in the game of US politics. By the time this war comes to an end Ukraine will look like Afghanistan. There will be no clear winner as was the case in Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan an Iraq.

Problems

The three major problems facing the world today are poverty, climate and war. Using thorium nuke power can solve the first two and then give the world a chance to solve the third. Thorium produces enough clean energy to, first run the world, second to create cheap hydrogen for transportation and third desalt sea water to grow crops in the desert. When people have the electric power they need along with clean transportation and enough food they will be more likely to avoid war. Even the power of evil charismatic leaders wanes when the people have good jobs and and are well fed. Instead of developing thorium power the world seems bent on wind and solar which cannot do the job but is politically popular. The answer is right in front of us but you can lead a horse to water.......

Europe

While North America will do quite well in the coming de globalization, Europe will be struggling. Using Germany as an example their people are aging fast. Retired people are not big consumers but do require a lot from the state in the form of retirement benefits, things like pensions and healthcare. Add to that the shortage of working age people, who through their taxes pay for the older people plus they are the consumers of locally produced goods and services and that means excess production which must be exported. Even under the old rules Germany was a major exporter of goods produced by their chemical industry along with autos. The basis of the chemical business is having natural gas as a starting point so Germany's major chemical company BASF, which is the largest chemical country in the world. is moving to Louisianan where they will have a supply of gas and next to their largest customer, the US Germany, that was already in a downward spiral because of demographics has been hit with the cut off of natural gas from Russia and Germany is the heart and soul of Europe and countries in the south like Greece, Italy and Spain will be hurt by the problems in Germany.

Greentech

When people talk about Greentech (wind and solar) they frequently fail to understand the effect of geography. If Greentech is developed in the wrong area it creates more carbon that it saves. Windmills must be placed where the wind blows and solar panels where the sun shines. Unfortunately these places are far from away from where the power is needed. For example in the United States about one-third of the population lives in a megalopolis stretching from Boston to Washington D|C and there is too little wind or sun in this area and even if there were there is not enough space for the windmills and solar panels. Germany in their rush to Greentech failed to take into account their lack of sun and wind when they closed down their coal and nuclear plants. Calculations after the fact shows that their final impact was to increase their carbon foot print. Add to that the fact that Russia cut off the natural gas and Germany has now restarted its coal plants and German coal is lignite the dirtiest kind of coal. This is what happened with corn ethanol. They rushed to build these plants and ended up increasing carbon. This is a double mistake because the law says 40% of corn must be used for ethanol production at a time when the world will be facing a food shortage. Somebody has to think before they act. The country is hell bent on leather to go to EV's without thinking through the whole process.

War

In 2008 William Burns, US Ambassador to Moscow, who is now CIA director, sent a cable saying that expansion of NATO into Ukraine crosses Moscow's security redline and could lead to an invasion by Russia. The US government knew this in 2008 but the cable was kept secret. The public found out about this cable ten years later only because Wikileaks revealed the information. The same thing happened with the Pentagon papers released by Daniel Ellsberg. What other information about the current situation in Ukraine is the government not releasing under the guise of national security. Should the people trust the government to do the right thing. Would the government be tempted to act in ways that benefit certain groups like the defense contractors. Even when the Burns cable was exposed the press just went ho hum. Are they doing that today. Back in Ellsberg's time the New York Times put that on the front page but in the Burns case nothing much was done about it. Has the press been corrupted.