Guaranteed income

Liberal politicians often push government benefits to help people while conservatives stress the importance of jobs. Nancy Pelosi yesterday suggested that it may be time for a guaranteed income for all Americans and this would be the ultimate in benefits. Would the beneficiaries lose any of this money if they worked or would that be in addition to their wages? Does this kind of public assistance discourage people from working? Will it cause people to become more dependent on government and if so is that a bad thing?

News

I spend more time than the average person watching cable news and since I am not working even more time. The news is no longer used to form opinions but rather to reinforce opinions. Liberals watch MSNBC and CNN and conservatives watch Fox and everyday they get to hear what they want to hear. The most recent example centers around the allegations of sexual misconduct by Joe Biden. Every day Fox poses the question as to why no one is asking Biden about these charges and the other net works never bring up the subject. I highly recommend that viewers watch more than one network to get a better understanding of what is going on.

OPM's

Business people are familiar with the phrase, OPM's or other peoples money. Regular citizens use this concept in car loans and mortgages but business people use it for inventory, payroll, expenses and expansion. OPM's are the life blood of business and no business makes use of this idea more than the real estate business. President Trump has used OPM's for his entire business career and so borrowing money to make money is not new to him. He is willing to spend freely during this virus crisis and time will tell if these loans or grants will hurt or help the economy. Congress is more than willing to go along with this approach and if things work out OK they will all claim the credit but if things do not work out they will say the buck stops with Trump. This is what it means to be president.

Open or not

A tale of two workers. John works for the government and he is at home and nothing has changed economically in his life. His pay check keeps coming in and all of his benefits continue and when this is over his job will be waiting for him as if nothing had happened. Joe started his new business five years ago and beat the odds since half of all new businesses do not make it five years. Joe used his life's savings, borrowed all the bank would allow, got a second mortgage on his house, got help from his parents and worked 80 hours per week and has kept his doors open. Now the virus has taken all that away from him. He has applied for grant money to pay his employees but his request is tied up in red tape. Joe is anxious to open up the country but John says wait so we won't have a second virus attack. Its all in the eye of the beholder or in this case the wallet of the beholder.

Virus deaths

Black Americans are dying at disproportionate rates from the virus because they are more likely to suffer from high blood pressure, overweight, smoking, diabetes and asthma. The biggest case of discrimination is with the elderly as 80% of all deaths are people over age 65 and half of those are over age 80 and half of those were in nursing homes. The numbers are 38,000, 19,000 and 9,500 respectively. All other deaths number 10,000.

Lunch programs

There are reports that some people are going without food because of the virus but these are the same people who were doing without proper nutrition before the virus. All government workers, including federal, state, county and city employees along with school teachers and administrators are still getting paid. The government is giving money to small business to pay their employees and those who are laid off qualify for unemployment which, for most, is more than they were making while working. This is to continue for four months and may be extended if need be. All the people who were living on public assistance before the virus will continue to receive benefits. One area where people are short are those who depend on school lunch programs and in this area most school are making arrangement to compensate. This may take some time so they can be hurting during the interim. Many of these people are using food banks but they are running out. About 60% of students receive free or reduced meals.

World virus

Over the past 30 years world poverty has been on the decline. This is the result of continuous economic growth in the western world plus the opening of free markets in Asia. During this time over one billion people have been removed from extreme poverty status and world was on tract to getting rid of extreme poverty in ten years but all that has come to a halt with the virus. There is an old saying that when America sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold and the poorest people get pneumonia. During the infamous Spanish flu in 1918 about 6% of the worlds population died but 30% of those in India died. As bad as this virus is in the west it will be much worse if and when it hits the underdeveloped countries particularly those in Africa.

Thinking and changing

When I was in high school Norman Vincent Peal came out with his book, The Power Of Positive Thinking, and it changed the way I looked at the world. This led me to another book that was written in the depression called, Think And Grow Rich, by Napoleon Hill and a few years later I read, The Greatest Salesman Who Ever Lived and these books have helped me through life. As the years passed other books were published and led to an entire genre called self help books. In recent years this positive thinking has taken on a religious slant with the concept called prosperity gospel. Surveys say that people think about what is wrong 80% of the time. They talk about their problems whether caused by themselves or others. These writers knew that your mind hears what your mouth says, that your thoughts determine your attitude and your attitude determines your life. In today's world the news bombards people daily with bad reports about sickness and death. In my youth the news was only a small part of our lives but today it confronts us 24/7. It takes a conscious effort to overcome this onslaught of negativity. Remember when you change the way you look at things, the things you look at change.

MeToo

Times Up is an organization founded in 2018 by Hollywood celebrities in response to the Harvey Weinstein case. We insist upon a world where everyone is safe and respected at work. A world where women have an equal shot at success and security. A world where no one lives in fear of sexual harassment or assault. They are well funded and have 800 lawyers available to help women who claim they have been harassed or assaulted. TIME’S UP SAID IT COULD NOT FUND A #METOO ALLEGATION AGAINST JOE BIDEN, CITING ITS NONPROFIT STATUS AND HIS PRESIDENTIAL RUN. Just as NOW struggled with the Bill Clinton problems, the METOO movement is having difficulty dealing with the allegations against Joe Biden.

News on the virus

Trumps daily briefings on the virus have become a ratings success averaging 8.5 million viewers which is akin to some prime time major network shows. Monday the viewership hit over 12 million which is like Monday Night Football. Fox garners about two/thirds of the audience and on certain days CNN and MSNBC do not carry the president and then Fox gets even more viewers. It is an old saying in the news business that when the president speaks its news but that is no longer the case on some networks. Rather than let the people decide what they want to hear these networks feel they need to filter what the presidents says so that people are not fooled, the assumption being that they know better.

Open up

Surveys tell us that almost half of all Americans live paycheck to paycheck and for most this means week to week. These people have now gone 5 weeks with out a check and many are no longer concerned about the rent as their families are getting hungry. When that happens the fear of getting the virus subsides and they are wanting to get back to work. Trump with all of his personality quirks has a feel for working people and he senses they are getting upset with this stay at home policy. The pressure to get back to work is mounting daily and soon people will cross over the point where the virus will take second seat to getting back to work.

Cold outside

Last year a song called, Baby It's Cold Outside, became news worthy because of the interest in date rape exposed by the Me Too groups. The lyrics to some indicate that the guy is pressuring the gal to do things she would rather not. This song was popular when I was in high school but there was another one even more controversial by today's standards called, There's Yes Yes In Her Eyes. Here is a sample. Your lips tell me no no But there's yes yes in your eyes I've been missing your kissing just because I wasn't wise I'll stop my scheming and dreaming 'cause I realize Your lips tell me no no But there's yes yes in your eyes This whole new way of looking at things upsets the way people used to think. It is mindful of the old saying that he chased her until she caught him.

Globalization

The recent controversy surrounding the World Health Organization (WHO) brings up the UN of which the WHO is a part. Many thinking people agree that the United States does not get a fair shake from these groups and that globalization in general is unfavorable toward the US. The World Trade Organization WTO) is another of these groups who too often seem to act in anti- American ways. Add to that the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund and the bottom line is that all of these organizations are ways to transfer money from western countries to under-developed countries. While there are over 190 members the United States pays about 20% of the expenses and all to often the US comes across as the bad guy. It is disheartening to see representatives from poor countries eating out at the finest New York restaurants while the people back home are living in squalled conditions. The Internet is full of examples of how money sent to these poor countries is siphoned off for the benefit of the elite. Corruption runs rampant and rich get richer on the backs of the poor.

Jobs

One of several reasons why I voted for Bill Clinton was when he said, welfare should be a helping hand and not a way of life. I knew the safety net was needed for the 16 year old single mom but when she had a baby when she was 16 because her mother had her when she was 16 and the grandmother had the mother when she was 16, I realized that the helping hand had become a way of life. Once again good intentions led to unexpected consequences and in this case harmful consequences. One of the most exciting days in life is when you are out on your own and you get your first real job pay check. Living on public assistance takes that thrill away from you and deprives you of the feeling of self respect and dignity that earning your own way provides. Who are the winners in this game of generational welfare. The winners are the politicians who go to bed at night believing they are helping the poor and downtrodden but they also know that this gets votes so they then have the power to hand out more benefits. The losers are the recipients of this largess as they have offered up their dependence on government for their independence. They do not understand that the best welfare program is a good job. The main emphasis should be on jobs not on handouts.

Oil cuts

Trump recently worked out a deal with Russia and Saudi Arabia to cut the world oil supply by 10%. While in those two countries the government can demand cuts the same is not true in the US. U.S. antitrust law prohibits oil companies from coordinating their production, and there is no direct mechanism for the government to dictate production levels to private oil companies. “U.S. production has already been cut because we're a market driven economy and oil is very market driven. They've been cutting oil all over the place,” Trump said. The Energy Department has said that American oil production will fall by at least two million barrels a day by the end of the year. Other analysts say the eventual cut could be three million barrels a day out of the 13.3 million barrels a day produced at the beginning of the year.

Crowds

In my early career I was in the chicken business. Baby chicks from the hatchery are placed in grow out barns with 20,000 in a barn. They are medicated because if one gets sick they all get sick. The same might be said for humans who live crammed together in urban areas. It was popular for environmentalist to suggest that people move back from the suburbs to the city to save on transportation cost and get rid of large homes and big yards. With the onset of the virus they may want to reconsider. The big cities crowd people together just like the chickens.

Mistakes

Dr. Fauci is a scientist and does not understand the world of politics. He said, like a good scientist, that with the benefit of hide sight they could have done better. In political speak that means you are a total failure. Politicians learn fast that if you are honest you will be crucified so they learn to talk in circles. In my lifetime the only time presidents admitted they made a mistake is after they got caught. I'm thinking of Reagan and Iran-Contra, Clinton and the blue dress, Obama and you can keep your plan and Carter's apology to the Jewish community even thought it came 30 years after he left office. Sad as it is that is the way it is.

Diesel fuel cost

Gas is 88 cents here but it doesn't help much since no one is going anywhere. This has brought down the price of diesel and that is a big help to all those truckers who are filling up the pipelines. The average owner operator drives 130,000 miles per year and gets about 6 miles per gallon so they use over 20,000 gallons of diesel per year. Diesel is down about a dollar and the 3.5 million owner operators are seeing their profits increase accordingly.

MMT

Many modern day progressives (liberals) believe in Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) which states that the United States can create all the money it needs without adverse consequences. It states that a country cannot go bankrupt as long as it creates its own money. Followers of MMT realize that inflation is a possible outcome but feel that can be monitored and held in check by future tax policy. They state that the true value of the country is determined by its natural resources and work force. These two forces combine to create supply and the economy creates the demand and growth follows. While this type of thinking is contrary to most economic theory it is worth considering. Spending on wars on poverty, on drugs, on virus or on actual wars has been going on for many years and the country always survives. There are underlying factors that no one seems to understand. Case in point. You can't keep spending more than you take in. The government has run a deficit in 56 out of the last 60 years.

Churchill

Winston Churchill's finest hour speech happened just a few months after his rise to Prime Minister and just after Dunkirk and the fall of France. The people of England along with the opposition party in the government wanted to make peace with Hitler. They felt they would eventually lose the war and wanted to save the lives of millions of Brits. Churchill stepped forth with what is considered the best of his many inspiring speeches where he said, We shall fight on the beaches,we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender and he rallied the people. He knew at this time the war would not end quickly and maybe in defeat but he kept a positive attitude and carried that through to the end of the war. In simple terms he was a cheer leader which was just what England needed.

Federal unemployment

Under the new relaxed rules about qualifying for unemployment compensation almost everyone who loses a job is eligible. This is a real boon for middle to low income workers who will receive both state and federal benefits for at least four months. In Minnesota anyone who earns up to $60,000 per year will have more take home pay than they had while working. That will end if the feds do not extend the benefit beyond the four months. If the jobs open up and employees refuse to return to work the employer may question holding their job open until the four month period is over. They may look for replacement workers.

Wage/price inflation

Back in the 50's, the government used fiscal (tax) policy to grow the economy. One method involved giving tax breaks to business, which in turn would use the money to expand by building new facilities and opening up new jobs. The second was to give tax breaks to the workers, who in turn would buy more causing businesses to produce more by building new plants. Both of these methods lost their effectiveness because business discovered it was more efficient to buy existing plants (mergers and acquisitions) rather than building new ones and the tax laws changed so most low and middle income workers no longer paid tax. In the mortgage crisis of 2008 the government sent out $900 billion to stimulate the economy but the myriad of new regulations made shovel ready jobs disappear and no one knows where the money went. In today's crisis, money is sent directly to the workers but not to expand the economy but just to keep it afloat. The plan now is to bring back manufacturing jobs at least to the point where supply chains can be maintained within the United States. This will lead to wages and prices going up with the goal to keep wage increases slightly above cost of living increases as was the case in the 50"s.

Oil production

I watch the President's virus meetings each day and several different reporters on several different days asked if the United States would reduce oil production like Russia and Saudi Arabia are considering. This indicates a lack of understanding of how the free market works. Oil production in those countries is controlled by the government but that is not the case in the United States. In the US when the price goes down it puts downward pressure on production and that leads to lower production. The President does not have to order oil companies to produce less as this will be the natural result of lower prices. It is similar to the way US companies have moved coal to natural gas for power plants. It is the result of economics not government.

Old movies

When I retired in 1995 and moved to Florida, I pretty much stopped watching TV. Over the past years we only watch cable news stations and so we are not familiar with the regular programs that everyone else watches. We do watch old movies from the 40's and 50's on Youtube. Tried watching newer movies but can never figure out what is going on. This week I discovered old NFL games and can now watch these since I have no idea who wins. Ignorance is bliss.

Unprepared

There are daily discussions about the US preparedness for the coronavirus and they center around the type of viruses that have occurred in the past. This virus is more virile than recent viruses. States like California are constantly upgrading their preparedness for earth quakes and over the years serious earthquakes have varied from 5.5 to 7.5. So if a quake of 9.2 happened tomorrow they would not be ready and the damage would be much greater because they were not prepared. A country cannot afford to prepare for every possibility so they usually get caught off guard when the unexpected happens, things like a 1,000 year flood.

Civil war virus

Lincoln famously said, a county divided cannot stand, and he was referring to the civil war. In the end the country came together thanks to his leadership. The 2016 election once again divided the country and we are in another crisis. The bitterness between sides borders on madness with once again brother against brother. This time there will be no killing, hopefully, but the animosity is bewildering to someone who is not caught up in it. Emotion has replaced thinking and neither side can hear the other. Perhaps this virus will bring back common sense and allow people to once again see the necessity to come together.

401K money

Financial planners routinely advise clients not to take money from their 401K with the exception that some plans allow for loans in which case you can use the money for some other purpose with the caveat that you pay it back in the allotted time. Because of the virus you can now take money without paying the penalty and no tax if paid back within three years. This is worth looking into in this time of crisis.

China virus

Evidence surrounding China's handling of the virus is slowly coming out and some of it indicates mishandling to the point of negligence. China first became aware of the virus in early December but did not alert the world until the end of the month during which time Chinese continued to travel around the world in large numbers including 8,000 per day to the USA. All during January they continued their world travels and on January 31st Trump announced a ban on visitors from China. During this time China placed large orders for (personal protection equipment) PPE around the world indicating that they new the potential danger in the virus. This is from Axios a left leaning publication. Why it matters:A study published in March indicated that if Chinese authorities had acted three weeks earlier than they did, the number of coronavirus cases could have been reduced by 95% and its geographic spread limited.

Man in the arena

I used to work in manufacturing and the quality control department wanted to have a perfect product and the production department wanted to have a lot of product and so there was some tension between the two. In smart plants these two departments did not let the perfect be the enemy of the good since on this earth nothing is perfect and they compromised with something less than perfect. This is similar to what is now going on with the virus. To start the economy today would be foolhardy but to wait two weeks until after the last case is resolved would also be foolish. This decision must be evaluated daily and at some point in the future the economy will be reopened and most agree it would be best to lean toward the safety of peoples health. The talking heads on TV will let Trump make the decision and then be ready to say how he should have done it differently. Those in the stands always criticize those on the field. Time to reread Teddy Roosevelt's, Man In The Arena.

Bottom up

During the mortgage crisis of 2008 many complained that instead of the government giving money to the big banks and then allowing it to trickle down to the people, the government should have given mortgage relief directly to the mortgage holders and they in turn could keep their homes. This time the government is giving money directly to the people and allowing them to pay up the ladder. This combined with giving small businesses money to pay wages and thus keep the employees whole will keep the economy ready for revival when the virus threat is over. Sounds like a good plan.

War reporting

A war on virus is quite different than a military war. To illustrate, assume that today's press acted that way in 1942. Reporters would be watching battles and reporting on the mistakes that the generals made and estimating how many soldiers died because of those mistakes. The reasons for this, after the fact reporting, would be to keep from making similar mistakes in future battles and wars. This is always done in the aftermath of wars but normally not while the war is going on.

Saving pension

Over the past 50 years, defined pension plans have moved to 401 K plans, with the exception of state and local government plans which are now underfunded. States have promised benefits to employees which they are not able to fulfill. Nancy Pelosi has recently proposed a part four to aid in the virus recovery and it includes money to fund public pensions. States like Illinois which are $140 billion dollars underfunded may never get out from under this debt without federal help. Many feel that infrastructure spending would help the country better than pension funding. Some see pension spending is a handout and infrastructure spending is a hand up.

WW2

As war time comparisons are made about the virus, I remember in WW 11 we got our news mostly from radio and newspapers. Today that news would be called propaganda which it was but people wanted to hear it. The news reels in the movies would show great American victories and radio people like Gabriel Heatter would start each broadcast saying there is good news tonight. Hollywood produced movies like 30 Seconds Over Tokyo and God Is My Co-pilot which I as an 8 year old boy watched in amazement imagining that I was a pilot. The government was given the power to censor the news and it did just that. There may have been some that objected but I never heard about them. What I remember are service flags in windows, victory gardens and troop trains. Our house was next to the Wabash RR and everyday trains would pass with soldiers waving from the windows and I saw them as hero's and my mother said they were just boys.