Nuke backup

If you want to research solutions to climate change on the Internet you will find a very distorted picture. There are thousands of article and if you randomly selected 100 you would find the following. 95 would be about wind and solar, 4 nuclear and one thorium nuclear. All of the wind and solar articles would tell you about the need for a back up when the wind and sun are not available. Some would discuss the amount of space needed, the long transmission lines and the overall cost but none would mention the damage to the earth by the mining and disposing of the materials needed. The discussion of uranium type nuclear plants will always include Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima. They would all include the problems of disposing waste. The articles on thorium will explain how they are safer and produce small amounts of waste with short life times while using up the current waste that has long lifetimes.

Administrators

The cost of regulations to business is often discussed but it is surprising to most people that there are more administrators at most colleges than students. The major reason for the growth in administrative positions on college campuses isn't administrative intrusion into academic governance, it is the increase in reporting and program requirements placed on colleges by federal and state governments. Stanford University has more administrative staff and faculty than it does students. Specifically, there are 15,750 administrators, 2,288 faculty members, and 16,937 students. This trend has effected high schools. The number of district administrators in U.S. public schools has grown 87.6 percent between 2000 and 2019 compared to student growth at 7.6 percent and teacher growth at 8.7 percent.

AI

Having a good memory is certainly an asset for a college student and it is particularly helpful in law school. Students there must not only learn the law but study many past cases which they refer to a precedent. Picture if you will a student who has a perfect memory and can read books at an accelerated rate. He never forgets anything. The summer before school he read every law book ever written, memorized the transcripts of every court case and listened to recordings of every law lecture. Would he make a great law professor. Doesn't matter what the course is because he knows all. He is a computer. The next question is could he be a great lawyer and practice law in real court cases. Is having total knowledge of the law plus instant recall of any case make him a good lawyer. In the interim could a lawyer use this computer as an associate. Could he input all the known facts of a case and get out the best way to present the case. If it starts this way will the computer get better with each case like a lawyer does and one day be better than the lawyer.

War win or lose

In 2008 President Bush announced that the west wanted Ukraine and Georgia to join NATO. Russia announced that such a move would be a bright red line in the sand and would lead to war and quite possibly nuclear war. Both Trump and Biden doubled down on this plan. For those who remember their history, warnings like this are not that uncommon and usually lead to war. Before WW 2 Japan, an island nation, needed raw materials to build up and maintain its infrastructure and so they invaded China. In response the US set out to embargo oil supplies to Japan and five months later Japan attacked Pearl Harbor. Russia was pushed into a corner and like a trapped animal responded. Now the world is stuck watching Ukraine be destroyed. This can only end in three ways. Russia can win and take over Ukraine or Russia can lose and go home with its tail between it legs. Third is a negotiated settlement. What will NATO do if Ukraine starts to lose and Kiev is taken over by the Russians. Will NATO troops be introduced to fend off the Russians. What if Ukraine wins. Will Russia just admit defeat and go home empty handed. Everyday the negotiated peace seems the only sensible solution.

Trends

Public trust in government has been on a roller coaster ride since Eisenhower where it was a high of 75%. It started down and reached a low point of 27% during the stagflation and deep recession of 1980 in the last year of the Carter administration. It was up and down until it peaked in 2001 at 55% just after 9/11. It has been trending down since then standing at an all time low of 20% today. Trust in the media has followed a similar path going from 76% in1975 to a low of 34% today. Since 1998 other values have changed. Here are the results of a recent survey in percentages showing the decline Having children 59% to 30% Patriotism 70% to 38% Community involvement 62% to 27% Religion 62% to 39% Money 31% to 43% Money is the only category that increased in importance

Green decisions

Environmentalist are facing some tough decisions. Start with oil. The world needs oil and will get oil from where ever it is available. US oil is the cleanest oil and produced in the cleanest way of any oil producers. Wind and solar needs mining to get the raw materials. The US would mine these metals in the cleanest safest way of any country so should the US start mining. If the goal is to increase the number of EV's will the US mine the materials needed for batteries or will they continue to use child labor in Africa. Will the greens be able to offer a way to get these materials in the best way for the planet without having the US get actively involved in the manufacture of EV's. It is time for the greens to admit that going green will cause considerable harm to the earth. I have always been confused by the green people because they never seem to think about their programs. When the first thought of windmills entered their minds did they ask, what happens when the wind stops. When solar panels were first suggested did anyone ask, what happens when the sun doesn't shine. When they pushed for EV;s did anyone realize that fossil fuels would be used to charge the cars. Did anyone propose an answer to the question, what will be the back up power source for wind and solar. Did anyone of these people believe that airplanes could fly on batteries. These questions were not considered because for most of these greenies the it was all about social changes and not about climate changes.

Corn ethanol

The old adage that even a broken clock is right twice a day is the only way to explain the corn ethanol program. After many studies it is now known that using ethanol in gasoline is worse for the environment than just using gasoline straight. This is in addition to the idea of taking large quantities of corn out of the food supply. The US produces about 380 million tons of corn and 40% or 152 million tons is used for ethanol production. Now here is the luck part. Because corn ethanol increased the demand for corn the corn acreage increased by 8.7%. With the food grains coming from Russia and Ukraine under stress the world's food supply is threatened and if the ethanol corn is converted to human consumption it could save many lives. This leaves the 200 ethanol plants sitting idle and more likely shut down permanently if food for humans takes precedent.

Prices up

The green deal has been controlling government policy for 30 years and it is about to come apart at the seams. As the push for wind and solar continues to grow the price of energy will continue to increase and at some point people will come to the conclusion that keeping my house warm next winter is more important than climate change. A sneak preview of that scenario popped up this past year in Europe and in particular Germany. Germany shut down their nuclear plants and replaced them with wind and solar. The had to keep their natural gas for back up when the sun doesn't shine and wind doesn't blow. Because of a lack of foresight they quickly ran into a problem. They discovered that they don't have enough wind and sun so the prices started to rise. This was further aggravated by the loss of Russian natural gas caused by the war in Ukraine but the rise in price was there before the war and will continue.

The scam

The great carbon net zero scam has been underway since 2000 and was confirmed at the Paris Agreement of 2015. It was there that 196 countries got together and announced their individual goals to achieve zero carbon by 2050. This is all pie in the sky and the main reason is that there are not enough chemicals. Forget about the damage to the environment from mining there are not enough. Forget about getting rid of all regulations there is not enough time. There are two dozen critical chemicals needed and copper is one but they can be represented by copper. If all the known places where copper is found and if all these places began to start developing today by 2050 they would only have 20% of the copper needed to meet the goal of zero carbon. This means no limit on the amount of money spent and no concern about regulations. This is not now nor has it ever been about the environment. It is about certain groups making a lot of money. It is about transferring money from one group to another. It is about social change. The really bad part about this is that while this scam is going on it is preventing the real change that could solve the problem from happening. When you look at the problem as a logical thinking scientist it becomes obvious that the solution is nuclear but this is on hold until prices rise to a break point and the people will demand nuclear. Prices will rise because as more chemicals are used the price will keep increasing and the cost of mining per unit will rise. The current group of politicians grew up with the green deal and are stuck with it. The younger people who will experience the higher prices of energy will think differently and be open to new solutions in particular nuclear. These people will see the folly in their 20 years of school where they were fed the propaganda of wind and solar and change their thinking when energy prices as Obama said, necessarily sky rocket

Ban guns

President Biden wants a ban on assault weapons. This is a situation where we have a previous case that we can draw on to determine how effect that would be. In 1994 congress passed a bill banning assault weapons that lasted ten years before it was repealed. Here are the key findings. The price of these weapons increased dramatically prior to the implementation of the law and prices declined to previous levels after the law was passed. Criminal use of the banned guns declined temporarily. Evidence suggest that may have contributed to a reduction in the gun murder rate against police officers. The ban failed to reduce the number of victims per gun murder incident. The most comprehensive review of the law was that it was ineffective and Most reviews of the 1994 version of the assault weapons ban point to loopholes in the text of the bill that, some argue, made it less effective than some would have wanted. Sounds like changes the government makes in tax law. There are always loopholes.

Reparations

The question of reparations for the descendants of slaves is in the news and I have the solution and it is two fold. First only the descendants of Black Americans whose lineage can be traced to Africa qualify. Second only the descendants of White people who owned slaves must pay. Part two is for payment to those who freed the slaves. That includes all the people who were anti slavery during the Civil War and in particular to the 560,000 White males of European descent who died fighting to defeat slavery. The ancestors of the slaves who were freed should be assessed a fee to reimburse the families of these soldiers and all other citizens who were abolitionist. When you do the math you will find it is a wash.

Ukrainians

It is difficult to understand the situation in Ukraine. Those opposed to a compromise say that if Putin is not defeated he will just want more territory even if it means going into NATO countries. Putin tried to take over Ukraine who has, at best, a rag tag army and has run into a buzz saw. He has lost an estimate 200,000 troops and is in a stalemate. We are expected to believe that he will take on a United States led NATO force, which any casual observer can see, would obliterate what ever is left of the Russian military. The question now arises as to who benefits from the continuation of the war. The answers in some cases are obvious. The suppliers of military equipment. How about those who benefit from higher prices for commodities like wheat and fertilizer. What about China who is getting Russian oil at a deep discount. It appears that the strategy is a willingness to sacrifice Ukrainians to prevent nuclear war. Will that strategy be any different if Ukraine is defeated and Putin goes into Poland.

Wind solar

Wind and solar. Some facts that proponents fail to mention and probably are not aware. Need lots of land. It takes 3 million solar panels to equal an average power plant and that would take 3,000 acres vs a power plant using up ten acres. Must have back up energy source for when the wind doesn't blow and the sun doesn't shine. On average the sun shines 12 hours per day but solar panels are only efficient for about 6 hours. Wind mills work about 25% of the time. To add to the inefficiency are the many miles of transmission towers needed to get the power to where it is needed. Solar panels receive subsidies but only the wealthy can afford to install them. Even those with panels only use them for electricity and they keep their natural gas for back up and heating. Wind and solar require the mining of and disposal of materials which are damaging to the earth. One interesting thing about wind and solar. You can search the Internet asking about the downside to wind and solar and you will get the start up cost, the need for a back up and the space but there is no mention of the harm caused to the environment by mining and disposing of the elements needed to make wind mills and solar panels. Why is that. The people who write these articles have a vested interest in wind and solar. Politicians who get kick back, manufacturers of windmills and solar panels and pro green writers who get grant money from green companies.

Green Party

Climate change became a front page issue about 40 years ago and it started off on the right foot by saying we will use all available energy sources to solve the problem . This meant in the minds of most people all renewables including nuclear. Somewhere along the way things got political and instead of concentrating on climate the emphasis shifted to social change. Here is from the Green Party web site. It seeks to solve the climate crisis by combining quick action to get to net- zero greenhouse gas emissions and 100% renewable energy by 2030 along with an “Economic Bill of Rights” – the right to single-payer healthcare, a guaranteed job at a living wage, affordable housing and free college education. Most people are unaware of the social engineering part of the Green Party solution so polls show that a vast majority of people want the green program. We need to approach climate change from the standpoint of climate without the social program to get to the heart of the matter and here many prefer to put their heads in the sand. They realize they were taken in by the green claim and now must admit they were caught unawares by the social aspects. The first clue should have been when the Greens pushed nuclear out of the solution. The Greens have now joined forces with the fossil fuel industry to ignore nuclear. More evidence is revealed daily showing that wind and solar will not replace fossil fuels so everything is shifting toward the social, the part called the Economic Bill of Rights. Meanwhile China and India keep burning more coal.

Union membership

Union membership has fallen from 20% in 1983 to 10% today. Public union membership is at 34% of workers but private unions are only at 6.1%. Unions organizing at Starbucks and Amazon were briefly in the news but that has come to a stop as the bargaining process is tied up. Union employees make an average of 30% more than non-union workers. 92% of union workers have job-related health coverage versus 68% of non-union workers. Union workers are more likely to have guaranteed pensions than non-union employees. I was a plant manager where the union tried to organize. They would have reps standing outside the plant everyday asking employees to sign a card asking for unionization. When they got 50% of employees to sign they could request a secret ballot. The problem was high turnover in the plant so it took a very long time to get the votes. When you look at a place like Starbucks you have to have reps at many different locations and by the time you get one place to sign the people at the other place have left. It is a long and costly way to get 50% to sign up at a given time. It is easier at Amazon because they may have a thousand employees at one location. This was accomplished at a New York Amazon warehouse. The company refused to allow a vote and instead referred the matter to the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) where it is now tied up with legal maneuvers. The longer this takes the more Amazon employees will leave and in time a new election can be called for and the whole process will start over. The laws need to be changed before union membership will increase. Biden says he is the union president but he has not proposed any changes in the law that would resolve these shortcomings. His proposed changes kind of skirt the issue.

Crime or not

Matt Taibbi is a left leaning author and journalist who was given information from Elon Musk to report on the actions of Twitter. His report was damaging in that it showed government cooperation with Twitter in reporting the news. Today it was announced that while Taibbi was testifying before congress the IRS went to his home. IRS employees may make official and sometimes unannounced visits to discuss taxes owed or returns due as a part of an audit or investigation. Was this a coincidence or does it represent something more ominous. Recall that ten years ago the FBI searched the records of reporter James Rosen. The FBI can go in search of a crime. They don't have to wait until you commit a crime. Reporters are the fire wall between government and the public's right to know.

Speech police

The oft repeated phrase that America is a divided country is not just along party lines. It seems to be spreading into all aspects of life. Rich vs poor, public schools vs school choice and BLM vs all lives matter. Does this division help any one group and if so what group. Some say it helps the politicians since it keeps voters divided so that whataboutism can cover their mistakes. This then leads to people switching their dislike from things to people. If someone questions any action they are criticized for their intolerance. They are shamed into silence and accused of some type of phobia. This can happen to a person who merely expresses a personal opinion and this can threaten free speech. Even today if someone questions our purpose in Ukraine they are called Putin apologists. This is one way to silence any anti war conversations. People who called Covid the China virus were accused of xenophobia. Those who question the activity at the southern border are called racist. The list of words and subjects which are off limits is getting longer by the day.

Geo Mason

George Mason University is located in Fairfax, VA and has an enrollment of 36,000. 6,000 students signed a petition saying they did not want the Virginia Governor to give their commencement speech. Interestingly enough Mason is famous for refusing to sign the Constitution feeling it gave too much power to the federal government. He later agreed after the Bill of Rights were added which severely limited the power of the government. He would have been considered a right wing extremist today. The question remains as to why these students refuse to listen to someone they disagree with. This does not bode well for the country's future. It is just another example of how people have gone to their respective corners and not interested in any other viewpoint. Things like the famous Lincoln/Douglas debates are considered highlights of American democracy but that was in the past.

Super fund

Here is a term unfamiliar in today's news. Green resource curse. This includes the damage to the earth caused by the mining and disposition of the elements needed for the new green deal. The reason the term is unfamiliar is that no one wants to talk about it. Years ago plant managers here in the US would put deadly chemicals in steal drums and bury them knowing full well that sometime in the future the drums would leak and the chemicals would leach into the soil. Years later hundreds of sites around the country, places like the infamous Love Canal had to be dug up and cleaned up at a cost of $400 million dollars but only after all the people who lived there moved. As of August 17, 2022, there were 1,329 Superfund sites on the National Priorities List in the United States. Forty-three additional sites have been proposed for entry on the list, and 452 sites have been cleaned up and removed from the list. We are knowingly doing the same thing today but not here in the US but in countries around the world. We have learned to ship our dirty laundry over seas.

Cobalt

Former President Obama wrote a book about his father living in Africa where the British used slave labor to mine for minerals. His book tales the story of how his father fought against colonialism and he himself has expressed his disgust with the way the rich western countries exploited Africa. Today the US gets most of its cobalt from Africa where children as young a four dig up sacks full of rocks where they then load them on trucks to be carried to the refinery. These rocks contain cobalt which is needed for electric cars and windmills. This part of the new green deal is rarely mentioned by the likes of Al Gore and his associates. The Biden administration opened the door to financing mining projects in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Zambia to bolster the global green energy supply chain as it pushes ahead with its climate agenda, despite the DRC's documented issues with child laborers being used in such mines.  Many children inhale cobalt dust with no masks or gloves. They work up to 12 hours a day hauling sacks that weigh up to 80 pounds. They sometimes spend 24 hours down in the tunnels. Overall, about 40,000 children are believed to work in mines in southern DRC, according to UNICEF. Cobalt is only one of many metals needed for the new green deal and most of the others have similar mining problems.

USA 2.0

As the world comes to the end of 75 years of globalization and welcomes jobs back home, there will be shortages of important elements like rare earth, cobalt and lithium. This means that the products that use these minerals will have to be prioritized. First the military and then consumer products like TV's and cell phones. Wind and solar and EV's can be put on the back burner as gasoline and diesel can power transportation and natural gas can continue to make electricity. If the current supply chains can be maintained the change will be gradual and less disruptive. Only 15% of our GDP is imports so the change can occur over a five year period while new manufacturing facilities are built here in America. Many of these new plants will be build in Mexico where there is a supply of young workers. A lot of what will remain as imports will be from small countries in Southeast Asia, places like Vietnam and Singapore. America will continue to lead the world in innovation because of the freedom of individuals to create and the higher education system.

India

India became an independent country in 1947. It had been a colony of England for the hundred years before that and was a third world country with most people living in abject poverty. From 1947 to 1950 India made the transition to a free market democracy and moved to what is called a developing nation today. The GDP went from $88 per person in 1950 to $2,200 today but more importantly the life expectancy increased from 32 years to 72 years. Having enough food to keep from starving goes a long way toward a healthier life. The population increased from 340 million to 1.4 billion and all this can be traced to trade with countries like the US and the jobs that go along with the trade.

Mexico

As the US continues the process of re-shoring (bringing manufacturing back home) Mexico will play a key role. The US can manufacture in Mexico at less overall cost than in Asia but there are not enough Mexicans so the US will still rely on places like South Korea and Vietnam until such time as automation can replace labor. The first expansion of NAFTA will be to build manufacturing facilities in Columbia. Columbia is where Mexico was a few years ago but only has about one/third the population but they can help move some production from Asia. The drug cartels in Mexico can interfere with the growth of US businesses in Mexico and this could be the incentive for the Mexican government to take on the cartels.

No wind

About 20 years ago when talk of wind and solar became popular many people and many countries immediately jumped on the band wagon without investigating the pros and cons. The result was that Germany abandoned its nuclear in favor of wind and solar without realizing that they didn't have wind and sun. It ended up adding carbon. In California solar works because they have sun. Germany has spent more on green than California and California gets ten time more energy. Geography is important but many don't think about. Wind is great on the great plains from North Dakota down to Texas and solar is great in the southwest but each of those location are many miles from the large metro areas of the east coast. The only reason that people use solar north of the Mason Dixon line is because of subsidies. They are negative from a carbon standpoint meaning they use up more carbon producing the solar panels than they save.

People in charge

It is time for the citizenry to wake up. It is the job of the people to make sure the government does not get out of hand and assume to much power. For most of the countries history the citizens were helped in this endeavor by the free press but that is no longer the case. The US left Afghanistan in the most awkward way and the press reported what the government said that it was the greatest air lift in history. The border is like a sieve and the government says its secure and the press dutifully reports that. The states were blasted with 200 days of rioting in 28 cities where billions were lost, businesses closed, public buildings set afire, police officers killed and many more wounded and the press reported peaceful protest and one mayor even referred to it as a summer of love. If you get the vax you won't get Covid and you won't spread Covid and that was accepted as gospel. The press has become a propaganda arm for the government. The people have to take charge and not be influenced by party politics. Instead use their common sense. If you are able to disconnect from a biased view based on one political party the picture looks quite different. You can see that immigrants should be giving citizenship increase taxes on the rich especially the super rich states should have the right to determine their own laws especially in areas like schools police should be respected and well paid as well as backed up by the city officials the border should be secured having Israel working closely with four Arab countries is better than Saudi Arabia and Iran joining forces preventing government from influencing social media demanding an exit strategy from Ukraine instead of just jumping on the band wagon to sending aid. report on the damage caused by the mining and disposal of metals needed for wind and solar. more coverage on issues and less about personalities. Forget about likeability and talk policy. find out who is making money on the war report on excess salaries for CEO's. promote school choice where the money goes with the student promote private unions promote a living wage of $30 per hour minimum. investigate why college tuition rose as government loans became available follow Clinton's advice when he said welfare should be a helping hand not a way of life push for drug treatment clinics and housing for homeless be willing to sacrifice for the common good have election day be a holiday and have 4 weeks of voting to allow for ballot harvesting

Government power

During war time governments declare an emergency and assume powers not available in peace time, such things as martial law. The recent experience with Covid has opened the door to emergencies beyond war. For many people we also have a climate emergency, a wealth gap emergency and a immigration emergency. Will this lead to more government take over of the every day lives of the people. We are spoiled. The last 75 years have been the most charmed period of history ever and yet people complain about systemic racism, income inequality and inflation. The biggest danger ahead is government take over of our personal lives by creating emergencies to justify their increase in power. Things like making it illegal to own a gasoline powered car or placing a cap on wages to close the income gap or confiscating property to spread the wealth around. The best defense is for the people to not trust the government but to examine the reasons behind every government program. Power to the people is the answer and it can start with a compromise end to the war.

Taiwan

One of the big concerns in the news today is will China invade Taiwan. China imports 85% of its energy and most of that comes from the Middle East. The US would only have to close the Straights of Hormuz to cut that supply. The problem is that sooner or later Xi Jinping will come to understand that his country is doomed for reasons beyond his control, in particular demographics. In addition China is already the worlds largest importer of food and many countries would stop doing business with China if China invades Taiwan. If he sees the end is coming he may risk taking Taiwan and allowing 500 million of his people to starve in order to keep power. This is not unprecedented behavior in world history. Autocrats often times are willing to sacrifice their own people to maintain control. Will Xi be willing to take the risk.

America

Prior to WW 2 shipping lanes around the world were in constant jeopardy from various pirate like activities some state sponsored but after WW 2 the US navy was so big and strong that the US guaranteed the safety of all ships. This open the door to globalization where countries could trade without the danger of being hijacked. Over the past 20 years the US has moved from a destroyer based navy to a carrier based navy and thus shipping is no longer protected because it takes hundred of destroyers to roam the oceans and the US no longer has that many. This is one of many reasons why globalization is on the way out. As the US transforms into a made in America country trade will no longer be important but that is only for North America. The rest of the world will still be dependent on foreign trade and the perils that go with it. When people say God bless America they should more appropriately say God blessed America.

Corperate power

It is often said, because its true, that big business has a lot of power when it comes to determining government policy. Take the example of Venezuela. When Venezuela nationalized the oil industry it left many American companies high and dry. The money these companies lost was considerable so Biden made an agreement with Venezuela which allowed them to sell oil but the profits had to go to repay American companies. Many were bewildered as to why Biden preferred dirty Venezuela oil over clean US oil and that is the reason. He took a political hit to help out the oil companies and that shows the power they have. After that they can continue to sell and keep the profits. The US will not buy from them but there will be plenty of customers around the world.

Young people

Most of the industrial world outside of the US is running out of millennials (ages 20 to 40) and this puts the US in the catbird seat as far as the future goes. In addition many of those crossing the southern border are young single males who can be added to the millennial group. The country most adversely effected by this loss of workers is China. They are short because the country people who used to have lots of kids have moved to the city where they have fewer kids and the one child policy that was in effect for 35 years. The US has another advantage over China in that people from around the world want to come to America but no one wants to go to China and if they did China is so prejudice (95% Hun Chinese) that the people do not want immigrants. From a demographic standpoint the US should welcome the illegals coming across the southern border and find a way to give them citizenship. Those who are afraid of how they will vote or the cheap labor must realize that the need for these young people out weighs what they see as negatives. They have to take off their political blinders and put the country ahead of their politics. Fat chance. In addition organized labor is not too keen on new immigrants. China is on the downward path and it will be accelerated because of their policies of unfair trade and stealing ideas. Meanwhile the US is moving out of China as fast as possible with companies like Apple leading the way. The US will have to come up with sources of rare earths mined in the US. The US is blessed with the topology needed to be self sufficient and as always protected from foreign countries by the oceans. The rare earth metals use in wind mills, solar panels and EV's will have to be rationed in order to provide for military and most high tech products like TV's and cell phones. While the process of bringing home manufacturing is going on say for the next 5 years prices will rise along with inflation but after that the country will be self supporting and inflation will settle down. During this time of relocating factories it is true that inflation will be high but the growth will be huge. All new and more efficient manufacturing facilities combined with the planned infrastructure building will provide high paying jobs and a booming economy. During this transition wind and solar and EV's will remain with fossil fuels and by the time we are thru this period hopefully the folly of wind and solar and EV's will be recognized and the country will proceed to thorium nukes to replace fossil fuel. No I never give up.

Tictok

The controversy surrounding TicTok is two fold. The first has to do with content and second ownership. China is collecting data from millions of Americans something which is not allowed in China by American companies. China has plans to replace the US as the world's foremost power and is thus more than a competitor. When Chins allows the US to collect data on millions of their citizens then the US might consider a reciprocal arrangement. In the meantime Tictoc should be banned but all social media outlets must have some restrictions only because children can access these sites. If only adults could access social media there would be no need for any restrictions unless something was illegal. The simple answer to free speech is that anything can be said as long as it is not illegal. These things come under liable laws.

Maher

Bill Maher is someone I never see because he is on after 8 PM but someone sent me one of his monologs and it was about equity which I believe is the ruination of the country. He said the only place left were merit counts is sports. He said that the 450 players in the NBA are the best basketball players the teams could find anywhere in the world. He said they are paid to be the best and as soon as someone better comes along they are out. He said their race, religion, sexual preference or who their father was has no bearing on if they get the job or if they keep it.

Patents

One of the key reasons why the industrial revolution started and why it started in England is because England introduced the idea a patents. Thomas Savery invented the steam engine and got it patented. Later James Watt in America made significant improvements but had to get permission from Savery. This patent law added a lot of momentum to the idea of free market capitalism. Congress passed the first patent law in 1790. Then followed new ideas like the telephone, cotton gin, sewing machine, light bulb, typewriter, repeating rifle and many more. When a person knows their ideas are protected they are more likely to invent. Edison wanted the feeling of success that come with his inventions but he also became rich. In socialist systems there is not individual ownership so the incentive to invent is there but the monetary reward is not.

Rare earths

In 1949 a deposit of rare earth metals was discovered in Mountain View, CA. The mine was developed and between 1965 and 1995 produced the worlds largest quantities of rare earths. China came on the market with low prices and that along with environmental concerns shut down the operation. Today China produces 85% of the worlds supply of rare earths. The mines in China are polluting the ground water and threatening the Yellow river which is the drinking water supply for millions. This is of little concern to the new green deal people and perhaps they know nothing about mining rare earths. The US government is now concerned and is funding the reopening of the Mountain View mine. Their concern is based around the fact that these metals are needed for modern military equipment. Things like wind mills and solar panels compete for these metals along with all of the modern tech things consumers use like TV's and cell phones. These metals represent only one of the many reasons to bring mining and manufacturing back home to protect our supply chains.

Conclusions

President Obama had only been in office a few months when he want on what came to be called his apology tour of Europe. He got the prize for what the news called, “his extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples.” Here is how the news later describe the tour. President Barack Obama has finished the second leg of his international confession tour. In less than 100 days, he has apologized on three continents for what he views as the sins of America and his predecessors. Not to be surprised the world was thrilled with his words especially the countries who disliked America for any number of reasons. Looking at the record of the US over the past 250 years it is not too difficult to find many sins especially if that is what you are looking for. On the other side the US has an record of accomplishments that far exceeds any other country in the world today and perhaps in the world ever. You can always choose to understand a problem to fit your thinking. You simply set a predetermined course to reach a predetermine conclusion and you will always get.

Innovation

As the demographics change the problems with social security become more severe. Between 1945 and 1965, the decline in worker-to-beneficiary ratios went from 41 to 4 workers per beneficiary. In 2010 it was 2.9 and expected to drop to 2.1 by 2030. Social security represents 25% of the budget and Medicare represents 10%. The average cost to the government for social security is $18,000 per retiree and for Medicare the cost is $16,000 per recipient. These two total $34,000 and if two workers are paying then the cost per worker is $17,000 per year. Every day 10,000 workers retire and new babies are not replacing these retirees. There are three things than can be done to work on this problem. First is innovation which will increase productivity to offset the loss in workers. Second improve education and this leads to innovation and third increase immigration. The effect of immigration could be enhanced if it were based on merit as that would also increase innovation. The obvious solution is all about innovation. If innovation does not happen and since no politician wants to address the problem the only course of action is to increase taxes or print the money.

Students today

From the end of the Civil War until the 1980's the US led the world in educational achievement. At that point things began to change and over the past almost 40 years the US has been in a downward trend when measuring education. Much has been done to turn around the trend but without much success. Two recent changes, one called No Child Left Behind and a second called Common Core have both failed and teachers say failed dramatically. In recent years the emphasis has moved toward teaching the whole child and this was tried in the 50's and failed. Progressive minded educators focused more on a student's emotional, physical and mental development, at the expense of such basic skills and reading, writing and math. Sound familiar. Once again those who fail to learn from history tend to repeat. The average class size in 1950 was 37 and today it is 24 but today it is more diverse. Diversity in respect to race helps students to do better but in respect to economics student do worse. Students coming from single parent homes do worse. Kids from single-parent families are more likely to face emotional and behavioral health challenges, like aggression or engaging in high risk behaviors. Many of the attempts to improve school performance have failed because of the race issue. Experts do not want to appear to blame minority students and they don't have to because the problem is not race it is economics.

Biden achievements

Biden has some significant achievements in his first two years but he will not get a lot of credit Lower drug cost Fighting climate change with the inflation reduction bill Gun safety bill Canceling student debt The Chips act bringing chip production back home Infrastructure act The problem that all presidents face is they get credit for the good things that happen and blame for the bad things and many times they have little to no control over events. What much of the public sees is what has happened in their lives. Two years ago border crossings were 40,000 per month and now they are at 200,000. Inflation was 1.5% and now it is 6.5%. Real wages were increasing and now they are decreasing. Crime was on a downward tread and now it is up. The police were adequately funded and now they are not. Two years ago four Arab countries formed defense agreements with Israel. Now Saudi Arabia and Iran are forming agreements. There was no war and now there is war. If Biden chooses not to run will his replacement run on his achievements.

Bureaucrats

The State and Defense Departments are awash with people who can view top secret documents but our elected officials in congress cannot. The congress represents the people not the career government employees. That is what is meant when we say, of the people, by the people and for the people. The events of January 6 are referred to as an insurrection but the real threat to our way of life is the bureaucracy. Over my life time these un-elected civil servants have taken control of the government and we need to recognize the danger they represent. People in various departments like the EPA and Homeland Security set up rules that the people have no say in. Look at recent events with Covid and how the government had the power to disrupt the entire country. Someone sitting in the back room of some government building in DC can tell us to get rid of our gas stoves or to shut down schools and we are forced to march in lock step to their demands. The people must elect officials who will take back the power and responsibility they gave away to the bureaucrats.

China Alibaba

The Chinese Communist Party(CCP) decided to pull out of various private companies to show the world that business is a free market. This meant the government did not have to put any money into the business. They did however require that all companies have one party member on the board of directors. This person then makes sure that the company follows the party line. This person has only one vote but if the company deviates from what the party wants, board members disappear. This is a strong incentive to do what the government wants. The most public example is Jack Ma, the founder of Alibaba the Chinese equivalent of Amazon and China's richest man. He challenged the government and he was hit with an antitrust suit and now lives in Japan with his family.

Teachers quitting

Teaching is a tough job and more so today than in the past for one important reason and that's because so many students did not learn respect for authority in the home. Teachers are leaving the profession at alarming rates and surveys show student behavior challenges are one of the top reasons. Ask most people over 50 what were the disruptive students like when they went to school and you will get answers like not paying attention, talking in class, passing notes and making strange noises. There were student fights but they happened outside not in the classroom. Today there physical attacks against teachers, students fighting in the classroom and using drugs in the bathrooms. Does anyone over 50 remember school shootings. Surveys show that 2.8% of students have carried a gun to school. Today when a student is being disruptive and the teacher cannot control the situation the assistant principal is called in and if the student refuses to leave the classroom all of the other students are escorted out leaving the problem student alone in the classroom. Schools are hesitant to suspend or expel students because when this was done in the past it resulted in a disproportionate number of Black students being disciplined. Students know this. There are many single moms who do a yeoman's job but there are many more fatherless homes where young boys do not learn respect for authority. Many of those boys feel that people in positions of authority are disrespectful of their rights.

Harris

A recent AP poll shows Biden at 38% approval while only 37% of democrats want Biden to run again. Does this mean that all the independents are opposed to Biden's running. Biden is slow to announce his reelection campaign because he is stuck with VP Harris. He can't dump her for the same reason he chose her, she is a Black woman. He can't keep her because her approval is even lower than his. If Biden decides not to run then Harris will have to earn her way to the nomination and unless there is some major change in the way she presents herself she will not get the nomination. This leaves the door open for a new face. Maybe that is what most democrats are hoping for.

Guns

In 2000 a group called the Pink Pistols was founded. The organization had at least 45 chapters, as of October 2014.[1] Those chapters are located in 33 states and three countries that are principally made up of gun-owning LGBT individuals, though neither status is mandatory for membership.[3] Mass shootings targeting LGBTQ spaces and a rise in anti-trans rhetoric have inspired some queer people to take up arms. 32 transgender and gender non conforming people were killed in the United States in 2022 and 302 deaths since 2013. A special report on PBS encouraged LGBTQ people to arm themselves for self protection. To carry a gun for self protection makes sense if you feel you are in danger.

Murders

President Biden in 2021 said, Biden said White supremacists are the greatest domestic terror threat in the US during a town hall event. One study found that “right-wing attacks and plots,” including by White supremacists, constituted a majority of terrorist incidents in the United States from 1994 to 2020 and a majority of deaths in fourteen of the twenty-one years in which fatalities occurred In 2021, domestic extremists killed at least 29 people in the United States, in 19 separate incidents. This represents a modest increase from the 23 extremist-related murders documented in 2020 but is far lower than the number of murders committed in any of the five years prior (which ranged from 45 to 78).   The white supremacist movement has a number of different components, including 1) neo-Nazis; 2) racist skinheads; 3) “traditional” white supremacists; 4) Christian Identity adherents; and 5) white supremacist prison gangs. This places the murders of about 50 people per year ahead of the 9,000 Black males killed by other Black males. In addition Five Black women and girls were killed each day in 2020, most of them with guns. Gender violence must be at the center of the gun debate, advocates say Why would Biden say this. This tends to divide the country not to unite the country.

Ballots

While pundits are talking the 2024 election they concentrate on the candidates but that is not what will determine the winner. The winner will have the best ground game when it comes to gathering up ballots and here is the proof. Year total votes Black votes 2008 131 million 15.8 million 2012 121 million 14.5 million 2016 139 million 15.0 million 2020 155 million 18.6 million This started in the 2018 Governor's election in Georgia. The democratic candidate Stacy Abrams led a new ground game that went door to door collecting ballots in something called ballot harvesting and the voter turnout was a record. The democrats quickly saw the writing on the wall while the republicans were asleep at the switch. The 2020 presidential election results clearly showed the results of this new method of campaigning. In 2016 Trump got 63 million votes and won and in 2020 he got 74 million votes and lost. The longer the open voting period combined with drop boxes the more important the ballot harvesting becomes.

EV's or not

There is a similarity to the way Obamacare was sold and the way electric cars are being sold. With Obamacare it was all about the low monthly premium and no discussion of the annual deductible. With cars is all about the miles per charge and no talk about the time it takes to charge. The average EV will go 250 miles per charge and the average charge time is 12 hours. Most people will not take a vacation with this car. It can make a good second car to drive to work and back and if you have solar panels on your house you can us those to charge the car and this makes sense. Only a small number of people can afford solar panels on their house. While all the hype is about EV's, this is not the future as EV's only work for part of the transportation industry. EV's will be like Blockbuster TV. Charging stations will be set up all around the country and then hydrogen cars will take over and these stations will go to rust. All the new power transmission lines will be taken down and the new thorium nuke plants will be built near where the power is needed. All the damage done to the environment by mining and disposing of the elements needed for EV's will be buried and forgotten much like chemicals were buried in the past and ended up like the Love Canal situation. Hydrogen can run all transportation including air, rail and sea and it is all carbon free.

Grandma

On the news today a Georgia State Representative said that because many parents are poorly educated they should not have input into what is taught in schools. This is mindful of what happened when President Clinton passed the welfare to work bill forcing people off of welfare after five years. Many said parents would be unable to care for their children if they went to work. Then suddenly grandparents came on the scene and started taking care of the kids. Those opposed to the bill found some professor who came out and said grandparents would not make good baby sitters because they didn't have the proper training. I don't know what happened to this professor but he quickly disappeared. This professor was educated to the point that he lost his common sense.

Power of prosecutors

The current threat to arrest Trump is concerning but not easy to see because it is Trump. To get a clearer picture assume this is happening to a regular citizen. He was accused of paying hush money to a porn start. This is a misdemeanor and has a statute of limitations of two years. Since the event occurred 7 years ago the prosecutor wants to upgrade the charge to a felony which has a longer statute of limitations. This shows the power that prosecutors have when it comes to going after alleged criminals.

Trump arrest

There is a theory going around that the democrats want Trump to be the nominee. They feel he can be beaten regardless of who runs against him since it will be an anti Trump campaign. Thus the New York prosecutor Alvin Bragg who originally refused to go after Trump has now decided to pursue the case. This will activate the Trump base and nominate him. Bragg cannot win in court but he can arrest Trump and supposedly this will rile up his base.

Climate change

Google climate change and you will find thousands of articles. These cover all aspects of the problem but there is no mention of the problems caused by the mining and disposing of the materials needed for the green new deal. Where are the investigative journalist. The mining of copper in South American, of cobalt in Africa, lithium in Australia and rare earth metals in China are destroying the environment by poisoning the air and water. People living near those mines are suffering from respiratory sickness and the local economy is short on clean water. Add to that the child labor and this is Pulitzer Prize stuff for anyone with enough ambition to look into what is going on. It is a lot like the Ukraine war. Those who are suffering are far away. Those living in the US have clean air and water and are safe from the hostilities of war. Many of these people are the same ones who claim to be the champions of the underdog but they are silent. The idea that wind and solar can replace fossil fuels must be challenged just as the continued fighting in Ukraine must be challenged.

Wealth gap

History has shown that capitalism or what is sometimes referred to as free market economy is the most successful government format ever created. This does not mean there is no room for improvement. The idea of some, is to get rid of capitalism and replace with something akin to socialism. This idea comes and goes in popularity and gets most popular when the gap between the rich and the poor widens. This is the situation today where the 3 million richest have more wealth than the rest of the country. Note the word wealth not income. Government is the only entity that can change this and therein lies the problem. There are ways the government can use to rectify this and the most common is the progressive income tax but that only effects income and not wealth. To effect wealth the first step is to get rid of the capital gains tax and that would being in about $200 billion per year but more would be needed. A wealth tax has been proposed and that would do the job if there were a way to collect. If this could be accomplished the real problem would be exposed and that is what to do with the extra money the government would collect. The other problem the country faces is the national debt. If the new money collected would be applied to the debt this would solve the gap problem while simultaneously solving the debt. The big temptation is to spend the money on new programs to get votes. Taking from the rich is top down but there is a bottom up that can go along with this and that is to promote private unions. This is a way to bring democracy to business and would go along way to closing the income gap. In recent years this has gotten out of hand to the point where CEO salaries are 350 times the average worker with an average salary is $24 million per year. In 1980 the CEO's were earning 20 times the average worker. Are we to believe that CEO's today are 17 times more productive than CEO's in 1980.

Transwomen sports

The first case over protection of women's sports reaches US Supreme Court and women's groups are in favor of admitting trans women into competition but they are quiet on the issue. Yesterday a trans women won an NCAA contest. Penn swimmer Lia Thomas becomes the first trans woman to win an NCAA swimming championship. Once again politics has entered the situation. Polls show republicans are 88% opposed while democrats are 41% opposed and independents are 63% opposed. For many who are opposed it is not just the unfair competition but sharing of locker rooms and bathrooms is a concern. For someone my age this idea makes no sense but what does an old fogey like me know.

Police or not

Many people have changed their minds about police protection and this is a prime example A San Francisco district supervisor is calling for more policing in the crime-ridden city – despite advocating to defund the police in 2020. Hillary Ronen, a Democrat, represents District 9 on the San Francisco Board of Supervisors. During a Budget and Appropriations Committee meeting on Wednesday, she made an impassioned plea to add more officers to the Mission District, which she represents. Here is what this lady said two years ago. "I want to make it clear that I believe strongly in defunding the police and reducing the number of officers on our force," Ronen wrote. Crimes like homicide and robbery have increased significantly and all those victims are just collateral damage to this lady's indecisiveness.

Transitory inflation

In looking back over the past three years the reasons for inflation become obvious. The Fed was buying government bonds and mortgages in a process called quantitative easing. This means putting cash into the economy. Between March of 2020 and the end of 2021 the Fed pumped $6.4 trillion dollars into the system. Meanwhile the American Rescue Plan was adding $1.9 trillion to the economy and add to that three rounds of stimulus checks for $5 trillion and then the increase in the child tax credit and people had pockets full of money. During this time the Fed kept interest rates below one percent making loans another source of easy money. With all that money to spend demand was rising rapidly while supply was being limited by supply problems and then people were surprised when prices started to rise. It was great news for the government as they handed out free money to people and they gladly accepted the praise from the voters but when inflation hit the government said it wasn't their fault. The first response was that inflation would be transitory but later that changed. At first the president bragged about the growing economy not realizing that it was all that money. Later he said that prices may rise.

Moody's

For those who are wondering how Silicon Valley Bank could go broke so fast, consider what happened to Mutual Benefit Life Insurance in 1990. The top ratings company for life insurance companies is AM Best and they gave Mutual their best rating of A+ less than two weeks before it went bust. When Best determines the rating they rely on the insurance company to give them accurate data. Any company can fudge the date and Mutual did. A big life insurance company owns a lot of real estate, things like shopping malls, skyscrapers and apartment complexes. The values of real estate holdings go up and down and many companies keep the book value at the purchase price. Some companies use a process call mark to market which means that they periodically appraise property and update the book value. This allows the company to jimmy the books. They know that over time certain properties increase in value while other decrease. If they want their books to look good they can adjust how and which properties they appraise. For properties that they deem to have lost value they do not appraise but those that they feel have increased in value they appraise and then put the new value on the books. This is important for insurance companies since they must keep a certain amount of money on the books to show the ratings company that they can cover the life insurance claims. AM Best makes their money by charging the insurance companies a fee and thus are beholden to the people they regulate. The fox and the hen house. Banks have a similar arrangement with rating companies like Moody's and Standard and Poors. The rating company is paid by the bank and if the bank doesn't like the job they are doing the bank can change rating companies. Moody's had a grade A rating on SVB days before it crashed. A is for banks with the greatest intrinsic financial strength.

Defense contractors

As the country finds itself in the pro war frenzy of standing up for democracy, it is interesting to recall Eisenhower's warning about the military industrial complex. The government left equipment in Afghan and is now sending more to Ukraine meaning that this all has to be replaced. In 2021, the most recent year for which full figures are available, the top five weapons makers received $116 billion in contracts while paying their top two dozen executives $287 million dollars. Are these companies lobbying for war. Are they giving campaign contributions and offering special perks.

Tech employees

Leon Musk took over Twitter last October and quickly cut the staff from 7,500 to 2,000. This opened the eyes of people in the tech industry and since many others have made drastic cuts. These companies were manned by tech types who needed coddling but those days are gone. They are demanding the employees come back to the office. So far this year 93,000 people have been laid off by tech companies This seems to have little effect on the efficiency of the companies. The average salary in these companies is $150,000 which is twice the US average. Some in the industry say the gravy train is over.

Gender words

This is the next target for those who want to change the names of buildings and tear down statues. The VA has changed it mission statement from Lincoln's 1865 address where he said, "To care for him who shall have borne the battle and for his widow, and his orphan."  to "To fulfill President Lincoln's promise to care for those who have served in our nation’s military and for their families, caregivers, and survivors." This is get rid of gender words like him, his and widow. They believe they can improve on Lincoln. They better get ready to change a lot of past statements by many people.

Automation

We generally think of automation as replacing unskilled repetitive jobs but that may not be the case. Chat GPT is a computer app that some are afraid may take over jobs. A recent report says the jobs most at risk are lawyers and professors. Professors teach the same course every year and probably hear the same question so they would be relatively easy to replace. They have TA's for students who need special help. They could spend their time doing research and publishing which is what the universities like them to do.

War jets

The latest news on the war says tanks from Poland are on the way with German and US tanks in the pipeline. Jets from Poland are going to Ukraine with some US generals saying that F-15's are next. The president says no jets but the generals are talking it up. This is the pattern of sending equipment to Ukraine. We won't send X and later we send X. This is so much like Vietnam that it is eerie. Unfortunately most people do not remember NAM. Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. There was a brief period where a settlement was possible but now it has turned political and even those who were considering peace have now moved to their political corners and closed ranks. Looks like we are in it for the long haul or as Biden says, as long as it takes.

Oil price

US oil production will be back to the pre-pandemic level of 12.4 million barrels per day and oil exports will reach an all time high of 3.4 million barrels per day. As the US continues to increase production it will bring down the price which will put pressure on Russia to seek a settlement to the war. Russia exports 5 million barrels per day so each dollar reduction in price mean $1.8 billion dollars per day in lost revenue. To add insult to injury Russia has been selling oil to China at a deep discount something like $50 per barrel.

War and nukes

A thorough search of the Internet concerning the war in Ukraine leads to some interesting conclusions. First off the west is in total agreement that they should continue to finance the war for as Biden says, as long as it takes. Ukraine officials are in total agreement that they will not cede one inch of land to Russia. Russia sees the loss of Ukraine as the beginning of the end to their country. With Ukraine and Finland joining NATO it means Russian/NATO is border longer than the US/Canadian border. Russian history tells the Russians that when they don't have a buffer state to protect them they get invaded and they can't take another WW2. So we are faced with the immovable object meets and irresistible force one side has to give. There are some legitimate reasons to believe that if Ukraine begins to lose that the west will not give them nukes to survive but there are equally legitimate reasons to believe that if Russia begins to lose Russia will use nukes. In searching the Internet there is only lukewarm interest in a negotiated peace because it is inconceivable that Russia would pull out without anything to show for their invasion. The US pulled out of Korea, Vietnam and Afghanistan without a clear victory perhaps it is time to do that again. If it comes down to a negotiated peace through giving land to Russia or a nuclear confrontation people should not forget MAD (mutually assured destruction) the policy that kept the two supper powers from going to war for 60 years. A new approach is needed and it should be based on old adage that if you change the way you look at things, the things you look at change.

Granholm

Jennifer Granholm, a lawyer turned politician is Biden's Secretary of Energy. She has no experience in the energy industry but qualifies on policy. In April 2021, she said President Joe Biden "has a goal of getting to net zero carbon dioxide for this country by 2050. And that means that we have got to figure out ways to clean up our fossil fuel industry." Here is a recent statement from her regarding China's energy policies. U.S. Department of Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm claimed Friday that Americans can "learn from what China is doing" in combating climate change. Since 2010 the US has closed down 300 coal plants leaving only 224 operating today and those are being phased out over the next few years. CO2 emissions in the US are now at 1980 levels even through the population has increased from 220 million to 320 million. China has 3,037 coal plants operating today and they have permits to build 100 more in the coming year. While many are concerned about Biden's ability to serve many more are wondering about his cabinet. This ladies thoughts echo the thinking of Homeland Secretary Mayorkas who says the border is secure.

Fed rate

The Fed rate is 4.5% and expected to rise to combat 6% inflation. The theory is that you have to raise the rate two points about the inflation rate to bring down the inflation which means raising the rate to eight percent. During the 1980 recession inflation rose to 13.5% and the Fed raised the rate to 19% before things started to come down. In 1981 home mortgage rates were 20%. Needless to say home sales were down.

Stanford

Here is a list of the top law schools. Stanford University of Chicago Columbia Harvard University of Pennsylvania New York University University of Virginia University of California. Last week a conservative judge was invited to speak at Stanford Law School. As he began to speak the student started shouting him down. While college students are notorious for unorthodox behavior these are older students and in law school and should no better. They know that the purpose of the first amendment is to protect speech and in particular speech where you don't agree. Then as if to add insult to injury Law Schools dean of diversity, equity and inclusion stepped up and sided with the students. She went on to question whether the University's stated commitment to free speech was worth "the pain that this causes and the division that this causes." 

SVB

There are some similarities between the Silicon Valley Bank failure and the bitcoin scandal. In both cases they used Woke to divert attention away from their activities. The ESG(Environmental, Social and Government) phase having infected both. A head of risk management at Silicon Valley Bank spent considerable time spearheading multiple “woke” LGBTQ+ programs, including a “safe space” for coming-out stories, as the firm raced toward collapse. The bank was putting its Woke face forward and working with the Woke venture capital companies in Silicon Valley where companies are filled with left wing advocates. This ESG idea is infecting companies all around the country. Big pension companies are encouraged not to invest in fossil fuels even though some of the best returns have been with the oil companies. Stockholders want the best return on their business and if they can do that going Woke so be it but if they can't then they should concentrate on profits. I am reminded of a job I had while in high school. I was painting bowling pins and asked the boss if we could talk while we were working and he said if you can work and talk that is okay but if you can't don't talk.

Xi peach plan

Some weeks ago Xi Jinping, president of China presented a peace plan for Ukraine. Then he met with Putin and this week will meet with Ukraine president Zenlensky. The US should champion Xi's plan and proceed to get NATO to join with China to reach an agreement. Be less concerned with credit and more concerned with results and tell the world that peace came because of the efforts of Xi. This will then lead China to help in rebuilding Ukraine. Acting now will allow planting in Ukraine and will prevent millions from going hungry.

Home prices

The average home price in Minnesota in 2020 was $307,000 and the 30 year fixed loan rate was 2.68%. With 3.5% down payment the monthly payment on this house would be $1,198. The value of homes increased as did the interest rates and the same house in 2022 would have a monthly payment of $2,176.

FDIC

After the depression the Federal Deposit Insurance Company (FDIC) was created to protect bank depositors from loss if a bank went broke. This started out at $5,000 per depositor and was raised many times over the years and stands today at $250,000 but all that changed in a big way yesterday when President said the government will cover all loses at the SVB. The FDIC account is funded by banks who are charged fees. The current balance in this account is $128 billion. Under the plan announced by federal regulators, $175 billion in deposits will be backstopped by the federal government. This means the account is underwater and banks must chip in to bring the account up. Will the banks take these new fees from their profits or will they increase fees to customers.

Full circle

When Biden took office it seemed to many that his policies were like his voters in that they were anti Trump and thus the anti Trump campaign became the anti Trump presidency. At that time crime rates were low, the country was energy self sufficient and exporting oil and gas, the border crossings were at the lowest in 30 years and real wages were increasing. Policies changed and led to an energy shortage, high crime, highest border crossing in history and real wages declined. That takes us through this year. Now policies are changing again as the Biden presidency becomes the Trump second term. Oil and gas production are on the increase with the opening of Alaska, getting tough on crime is back in vogue and in the works are bringing back remain in Mexico and asylum seekers to be sent back. This gives him two years to get inflation under control and he will have come full circle.

Social security going broke

There was another republican senator on Morning Joe decrying the fact that the social security fund will have to make a 25% cut in benefits in 7 years if something isn't done today. Sounds like the climate change people. He then went on to criticize Biden's do nothing approach saying Biden has his head in the sand. What he and many republicans fail to understand that Biden's plan is simple and straight forward and no cuts to social security will occur. The Fed will just print the money to cover the short fall. This is the way that Modern Monetary Theory works.

Banks

There was a senator on CNN this AM who said the money to bail the Silicon Valley Bank will not require any taxpayer money. Does she mean the Fed will just print up the money as that is the only other way for the government to get money if they don't take if from the taxpayers. Every time there is a problem the government investigates to, as they say, find out what happened so they can prevent it from happening again. In 2008 a big bank failed and congress went to work with their usual vigor to investigate. They followed with new laws(Dodd/Frank) and regulations and here we are with another bank failure. They have all of these meetings with TV coverage where they give speeches and then wait for the next problem.

Bank failure

Most people alive today do not remember much about the S&L scandal of the 1980's but it has significance today regarding the bank failure in Silicon Valley. There is a rumor that Elon Musk may buy the bank and that means he must recall the failures in the 80's. After all the dust cleared the government took over these failed S&L's they formed what was called the Resolution Trust Corporation. This Trust was charged with liquidating assets for the best price to minimize the loses. They ended up selling at 20 cents on the dollar and many of the buyers were groups composed of the original owners. Musk is probably looking at buying at 10 cents on the dollar and letter the government absorb the other 90% and knowing Musk, he will probably get the deal. He has methodically ripped off the government from day one in his other businesses.

Gore

The earths temperature is rising and burning fossil fuels is thought to be one of the causes. For those who believe that it is time to take corrective action. The problem is that many who express the most concern are getting in the way of a solution. They must come to realize that wind and solar are not the answer. Leading proponents in this area seem unaware of the damage to the environment caused by the mining and disposing of the materials needed to manufacture wind mills and solar panels. This lack of awareness for many is out of ignorance but some are pushing social changes. For others it is a matter of money. The poster boy for this group is Al Gore. He spent his life as a government employee and left government to amass a $200 million dollar fortune by selling his ideas on climate change. His claim to fame was a book he wrote scarring people about the future, a book that he admits he exaggerated to make a point. He purchased a $9 million dollar ocean side villa and flies around the world in his private jet to promote climate change. He has a home in Nashville that uses 23 times the electricity of an average home. For show he put up some solar panels on his home but they only account for 3% of his usage. Many articles about him and he never mentions the contamination to the earth caused by mining materials needed by wind and solar. People who hold these positions are getting in the way of the real solution which is thorium nuclear power.

Border

The situation at the southern border is rapidly deteriorating. The number of migrants has quadrupled in the past two years and the illegal drugs and human trafficking have increased along with the migrants. The Washington Post says the cartels are making $500 billion dollars per year and of course this is tax free. In contrast Apple's net profit is $120 billion. The cartels have so much money that they are influencing the Mexican government and Mexico is becoming a Narcostate. It is obvious to many that the only alternative left to the US to combat this problem is to use what ever is necessary to close down the border. This means physical barriers where applicable, technologies like drones and cameras, along with the military to help border guards. The military could set up one mile observation posts to report any activity and a quick response teams could be called in. The border is 2,000 miles long so this would take 2,000 military personal to man these stations. There are no real accurate figures on how many women are molested or how many children are trafficked but when you add that to the 100,000 young people who die from drugs it is time to close the border.

Wealth tax

Long term capital gains tax is placed on any asset that is purchased and held for one year or more and then sold. The tax is lower to encourage people to invest. Biden's proposed tax plan removes this tax break by raising the capital gains rate to the rate on regular taxes. Many people who own capital assets keep them for much longer than one year in order to postpone paying taxes. If the law is changed abruptly it could causes problems for the market. For example if the law was scheduled to change next year then all people holding capital assets would sell them this year in order to get the lower rate. This would result in a large market sell off. This sell off however may be unavoidable for rich people. Part of Biden's tax proposal includes a 25% minimum tax on all whose net worth is more than $100 million dollars. If you are one of those people your income comes mostly from capital gains so you will be taxed on those even if they haven't been sold which are referred to as unrealized capital gains. The problem is how do you determine the value of these unrealized gains if you don't sell them. Say you invested in $10 million in a shopping mall and its now years later. The mall has gone up in value but you have no idea by how much. So you estimate it is worth $11 million and you pay your tax on the one million gain but next year you will pay tax on that one million and every year after that. This is what happens when you pay tax on assets as opposed to income. This has a name. It is called a wealth tax. It is not only difficult for people to determine the value of unsold assets, it is difficult for the IRS. Maybe this is why they needed 87,000 new agents.

Life

There is a story in the news this week about a war correspondent named Ben Hall. He is 40 years old in the prime of his career, doing something he truly loved, and thought he would be doing this for the next 20 years but fate intervened. He was hit with a rocket and lost one leg and damaged the other. His response has been a real eye opener. He is now at home with his wife and three little girls and he says this is the best thing that could have happened. He will now get to spend his time at home watching these little people grow up instead of off in some foreign land. His priorities have been completely changed as he know realizes what is really important in life. Most people have to get old to understand this but this young man now knows what life is all about. Its about your kids and their kids.

Biden tax plan

Biden released his budget plan for this year and it looks good meaning it will transfer money from the rich to the non-rich. This is in response to the widening wealth gap. It increases the capital gains tax from 20% to 39.6% for those earning more than $1 million per year A 25% minimum tax on families earning more that $100 million per year Increases the top income tax rate from 37% to 39.6% Increases the Obamacare tax from 3.8% to 5%. This is a tax on investment earnings for those earning more than $400,000 per year. Increase corporate tax from 21% to 28%. It would also increase taxes on foreign earnings to 21% up from the current 10.5%. It gets rid of the carried interest tax which was a tax break for hedge fund managers. It would increase the tax on stock buybacks from 1% to 4%. This will encourage business to do something else, like investing, their profits instead of buying back stock. Recall that a few years ago the companies were given a special low tax to bring money back from overseas called repatriation. They brought home about $700 billion but uses half of that to buy back stock rather than reinvest. The plan limits how much rich people can put into Roth IRA's which was a loop hole for super rich. It cuts the depletion allowance for oil companies. This was money they received each year much like the subsidies that farmers get. It puts the child tax credit back up to where it was during the pandemic. This is a big deal for families with children. Currently a family of four can earn up to $55,000 and pay no income tax. With this change they can earn up to $85,000 and that means that two/thirds of workers will pay no tax.

China water

China is suffering from a shortage of fresh water. The two main rivers are the Yellow (63,000 cu ft per second flow) and the Yangtze (one million cu ft per sec) are both under pressure. The Yellow has for many years been threatened with contamination from the mining of rare earth metals. This provides drinking water millions of people. More recently the Yangtze has come under stress due to an ongoing drought and water levels are so low that hydro power is threatened. Add to that the fact that China with 9% of the global crop area uses 30% of the fertilizers and herbicides all of which end up in the water supply and China is facing a serious water problem.

Mortgages

I have pointed out in the past that a mortgage company called New Day which specializes in loans for Vets was encouraging Vets to take out loans with no cost so that every time the house increased in value they would take out another loan. My warning was that when housing values dropped many of these people would be underwater. Someone must have contacted them because the new loans now add how to spend the money when they say use it to pay down credit card debt or payoff other loans like care loans. People will still use this money to buy new things but the mortgage company will be off the hook if people lose their homes.

Alaska

President Joe Biden is weighing whether to approve a massive oil and gas drilling project in Alaska that has the bipartisan backing of the state’s congressional delegation but is drawing fierce opposition from environmental groups. A decision is expected to come sometime this week. This will provide 180,000 barrels per day. Biden previously lifted sanctions on Venezuela oil and the US now imports 100,000 barrels per day from Venezuela. The Alaska oil is clean compared to oil from Venezuela and the production process is much cleaner. From the standpoint of the environment US oil is much better and the profits will go to US companies. This seems like a no brainer.

New taxes

Biden's budget includes taxing the rich which is a great idea but there is no need nor does it help to raise the income tax rates. Rich people get 70% of their income from investments not earnings so start taxing investments or in simple terms increase the tax on capital gains. The old argument against this was that it amounts to double taxation and if you raise the capital gain rate you will discourage investment. These were valid arguments but the question is what will the rich do with their money if you raise the capital gain rate. They have to put it somewhere and it will not be under the mattress. The government collects $170 billion in capital gains taxes and the current top tax rate is 23.8% as opposed to the top income tax rate of 40.8%. It the capital gain rate was equal to the income tax rate this would bring in an additional $110 billion dollars per year. This would cover about one forth of the new taxes in the Biden budget which claims $400 billion in new taxes.

Vaxed or not

The story surrounding tennis player Novak Djokovic has opened the door to the discussion of vaxed people. The government, during the pandemic, stopped anyone who was not vaxed from entering the country. The same rules also caused many to lose their jobs. Now that the pandemic is over and the latest information says the natural immunity is as good or better than the vaccine many feel the travel restriction should be ended and all those who lost their jobs be reinstated but the government is opposed. Holding on to these regulations is no longer a matter of science but an unwillingness to change.

Global

People who watch such things are now saying that globalization is ending. This means new locations for production and new supply chains. One leading example is Apple. Apple is moving production of I phone out of China to India and production of Mac's to Vietnam. While it is in part about low wages that is not the whole story since in India the average monthly pay is $450 and in Vietnam $160. Apple products are not bulky so shipping cost are not a major concern but even so shipping cost have increased 300% in the past two years. The question is if Apple is going to build all new facilities why not build in the US. Labor costs are not the reason since the labor cost is $15 to $30 per unit so if the US labor costs would add $200 to the price of an I phone. There would be a savings on transportation and supply chains would be safe and secure. The good will of producing in America would be worth a lot. The next step would be to develop suppliers with facilities here in the US. This would eliminate the child labor used by many of Apple's suppliers.

Investigations

As the republican congressional hearings get underway to investigate alleged wrong doing, many conservatives anxiously await some smoking gun that will prove criminal activity but they are in for a surprise. There have been crimes committed but exposing them will be next to impossible. First off they must get the wrong doers to testify and anyone that has damaging information will refuse. Then the congress will issued subpoenas to force them to testify but the Justice Department will not enforce the subpoenas. The same is true for subpoenaed information. Then the congress will threatened to withhold funds but since the government operates using an omnibus bill which has all the allocated money under one umbrella the congress will have to withhold all funds which means shutting down the government and they will not do that. The result is all of the bluster about holding peoples feet to the fire is just that, bluster. No bureaucrat is going to come forth with information that proves criminal activity against the government. We have a dozen whistle blowers who have come forth without being subpoenaed and still nothing happens. This is not based on party loyalty since the same thing happened when Trump was president. It is the bureaucrats protecting themselves.

Ukraine peace

Russia was concerned about Ukraine joining NATO and they saw that as a threat to their safety. In early 2021 Russia started the build up of troops along the Ukraine border. In December of 2021 Putin sent a letter to Biden asking for assurances that Ukraine would not be invited to join NATO. Biden responded saying that Ukraine's entrance into NATO will depend solely on Ukraine. In doing so he turned over control of how the conflict would go to the Ukrainians. If he had told Putin that Ukraine would not become a member of NATO instead of passing the buck to Ukraine the war could have been avoided. This makes it difficult for Biden to agree to a settlement which is not what Ukraine wants. In for a dime, in for a dollar. A new president would not be in such a bind.

Uyghurs

China is heavily dependent on importing fossil fuel. The area in China that has the most reserves is in Xinjiang province. They want to protect these reserves but the people living there are not Chinese. They are Uyghurs and there are about 12 million and they are Muslims. They do not want China in their area so China has been taking steps to eliminate them in what is called the largest ethnic cleansing since Hitler. There are currently one million Uyghurs in prison like housing in the province. This process of getting rid of the Uyghurs has been going on for some years but accelerated starting in 2017. This is an isolated area and not much news gets out but enough to know what is going on is what the world always says, never again. Overtime the Uyghurs will disappear and Chinese will move into the province.

Religion

“Don’t tell me about no separation of church and state,” Mayor Eric Adams declared last week at an annual interfaith breakfast, which by tradition the mayor hosts. He also said the Supreme Court had made a mistake when it banned school-mandated prayer in the public schools in the early 1960s. Adam's said, State is the body and Church is the heart. You take the heart out and the body dies I would have used different words to present the same argument. I believe that the founding fathers did not want to take religion out of the state but they wanted to keep the state out of religion. In other words they did not want a state religion much like the Anglican Church in England.

Russian oil

In looking ahead one of the big questions involves inflation. Will it come down in the next few years or is it long term and the answer to that is Ukraine. Russia produces 10 million barrels of oil per day and before the war they were exporting all of that. The US stopped buying Russian crude which was not a surprise but when Europe stopped buying, this was a big deal. Putin thought he had Europe and in particular Germany over a barrel,(no pun intended). Putin still has India and China but that only amounts to half of his production. So what happens to the rest. The answer can been seen by reviewing what happened when the Soviet Union collapsed. Many of their wells are in areas of permafrost and must keep pumping or pipes freeze and this happened and it took years and the help of western technicians to get things going again. If this happens again the West will not be that willing to help and this production may be off line for many years. In that case losing 4 million barrels a day from the world market would cause oil prices to rise and this will effect the cost of all goods causing long term inflation. This is just one more reason for the US to maximize oil production.

Market economy

After the war ended in Vietnam the country remained communist meaning central control of the economy. They went through three 5 year plans the normal way that communist countries operate. The economy remained weak and little progress was made. Then in 1986 things changed as they moved away from the favored communist central government approach to a more free market economy. In 1986 Vietnam launched a political and economic innovation campaign (Doi Moi) that introduced reforms intended to facilitate the transition from a centralized economy to a "socialist-oriented market economy." Doi Moi combined government planning with free-market incentives During the years after the war ended in 1975 the GDP was about $1,000 per person and since 1986 it has risen to $15,000. This is the same thing that happened in China and is just one more example of how the free market works so much better than communism. The famous 5 year plans that communist countries try to use means that the central government has to sit down and project what items and in what amounts they will need over the next five years. In a free market system the market determines what is needed and produced.

Unite

It appears that both parties have joined forces to put America first so lets join forces in other ways. Elected officials have an opportunity to prove that they are willing to put the country ahead of party by joining forces and concentrating on areas of agreement that will help the people. Here a just a few areas they can start with. Rebuild infrastructure Stop fentanyl Decouple from China Close the race gap in education Create high paying jobs Clean environment Close the wealth gap Strong well qualified police Energy independence Secure the border Lower inflation Strong safety net Once they get something accomplished here they can work on areas where they disagree.

Globalization

When WW 2 ended the US controlled the seas and this opened the door to international trade and thus begins the modern version of globalization. The US told the world that their ships would be protected and in return the US wanted to isolate the Soviets. Thus began the greatest expansion in economic growth the world has ever seen. The upside is that more than a billion people, mostly in Asia, were brought out of poverty and that supply chains were developed so that countries around the world were closely connected not only economically but financially. In 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed the situation changed. During that time a new danger to the US came on the scene as China grew into a world power. China was the child of American business. By the turn of the century the US realized it had created a potential enemy and the first feelings of anti globalism surfaced. People realized that the good manufacturing jobs had left the country and the middle class was in decline. It was a process that started in the 1960's but didn't come to everyone's attention until after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The pandemic made everyone aware of the danger to the supply chains of this international trade and the mood is now to bring back the jobs and disconnect from China. This America first idea is promoted by both Trump and Biden and most of the middle income workers in the country. The winners of the global economy were the rich and the high techies. While globalization helped the super poor out of poverty the super rich got richer and the demand for STEM types grew rapidly. The losers were the American middle income people who lost their manufacturing jobs. The mood of the country has shifted and this coming election will be a push for make American first.

Food

While most of the attention surrounding the war has been toward the suffering of the Ukrainian people the bigger picture shows a bigger problem. Experts say the if the war ended today by the end of this year 400 million people will be facing starvation and if it continues another year the figure will rise to one billion. Russia and Ukraine supply about 25% of the world food supply and a goodly portion of the other products needed for food production such as fertilizer. The first problem was the lack of energy to keep people warm in Europe but that will seem like a minor inconvenience when people in Africa begin to starve. This will put more pressure on diplomats to reach a peaceful conclusion to the war, assuming they care.

Wall

Many things were done by the Biden administration that caused some consternation among the general public and one was the material to build the wall along the southern border. The material was already delivered and paid for but was not allowed to be used. More than $100 million worth of taxpayer-paid border wall materials have been discarded and are going to waste in Texas after President Biden ended the construction of the barrier when he entered office. 10,000 steel panels, enough to build 100 miles of wall are rusting in the sun in Pharr, TX. While the arguments for and against the border wall continue around the world things are different. When the wall came down in Germany there were only a dozen walls around the world but today there are 74 border walls so they are useful in some places. Here is article from Homeland Security in 2020. Since the US Border Patrol began constructing border barriers nearly 30 years ago, these barriers have proved to be a critical component in gaining operational control of the border. In 2006, the US Senate voted 80 to 19 to pass the Secure Fence Act which authorized construction of a physical barrier. It funded 738 miles of wall along the southern border. Why these materials were allowed to go to waste is difficult to understand.

Hotel rooms

The government says that 580,000 are homeless in American and 11% or 64,000 are Vets. In New York 3,400 live on the street which means that 374 are Vets. Another New York City hotel is opening its doors to house illegal immigrants on the taxpayers' dime, reaching a total of 85 Big Apple hotels to grant free rooms to migrants. 450 migrants now live in Hotels that cost the taxpayer $190 per night. Those beds could be going to some of the 374 Vets who sleep on the street. Many feel that the priorities are mixed up.

Murdaugh

In most murder cases police look at motive, means and opportunity. In the Murdaugh case the motive is suspect. The man had previously been sentenced to 70 years in prison for a number of civil crimes, most notably embezzlement. The only additional punishment from murder could be execution. Why would he kill is wife and son and risk the death penalty. This means being strapped in the electric chair sitting there knowing that you will soon be electrocuted. Forget about reasonable doubt just think of reasonable. Without the murder he sits in prison reading and writing about his life. Something doesn't add up.

Gold or dollars

During WW 2 the US manufacturers produced war materials which were sent to the allies and in return they sent gold to the US. By the end of the war the US owned 70% of the gold. It was awkward for countries to trade with one another since they had to ship gold around the world so they all got together in Brenton Woods, NH and agreed to use dollars instead of gold. The dollar became the worlds currency. The gold was stored at Fort Knox and countries knew that they could trade their dollars for gold whenever they wanted. At that time the price of gold was pegged at $35 per ounce. This worked fine until the 1960's when the US was spending on the Great Society, the Vietnam War and the space program and countries got worried that the US did not have enough gold to back up all the spending. This created a crisis so in 1971 President Nixon said the US was going off the gold standard and this allowed the Fed to print up the money needed to finance all of the programs. This money is called fiat money and is no longer considered currency. At this time the dollar became king and all countries used the dollar for international trade. When the US needs money the Fed prints it up and gives it to the government. The government gives an IOU to the Fed and these IOU's are called bonds. The bonds are then sold at auction to other governments, pension funds, insurance companies and individuals. Now introduce trade deficits. When the US pays for its imports with dollars other countries can convert those dollars to their kind of money but when they do that it makes their money more valuable and it becomes harder for them to sell their products so they instead just use their dollars to buy more US bonds. This is what is meant by these countries devaluing their money something that China does on a regular basis. China devalues their currency while at the same their government subsidies their industries so they can sell products at lower cost. Since 1945 through all the ups and downs wages have increased 3.7% and inflation is at 3.1% so printing all of that money has not had a serious impact on individuals. Will this continue. As more politicians discover that the way to get reelected is to spend money this process will accelerate.

Biden

A run for a second term by Biden would mean an exhausting campaign crisscrossing the country giving speeches and meeting with local officials. It can be grueling and he may not be up to the task. Some insiders realize this and plan to use surrogates. This would give Biden time to recoup. Others would be sent out to campaign in different cities where well known local politicians can stump for Biden, for example, Governor Pritzker in Illinois, himself a possible candidate. This still leaves the debates. It would be a bad move not to debate but it may be his best move. Biden at times seems lucid and tuned in with the facts but other time he seems unable to communicate. For example he performed admirably during the state of the union message. Some have suggested he may have used performance enhancing meds. and if so could these be used for the debates. Some will be willing to risk Biden's health if it means winning the White House.