Taiwan

One of the big concerns in the news today is will China invade Taiwan. China imports 85% of its energy and most of that comes from the Middle East. The US would only have to close the Straights of Hormuz to cut that supply. The problem is that sooner or later Xi Jinping will come to understand that his country is doomed for reasons beyond his control, in particular demographics. In addition China is already the worlds largest importer of food and many countries would stop doing business with China if China invades Taiwan. If he sees the end is coming he may risk taking Taiwan and allowing 500 million of his people to starve in order to keep power. This is not unprecedented behavior in world history. Autocrats often times are willing to sacrifice their own people to maintain control. Will Xi be willing to take the risk.