Tuesday, October 31, 2023

Murders

Chris Wray the head of the F|BI said today that he is very concerned about the threat against Jews. He pointed out that the Jews represent only 2.5% of the population but they are the victims in 60% of all crimes against religious groups. Here is a wake up call for Mr Wray. 13% of the population is Black and 6% is Black males and 3% are Black males between the ages of 15 and 45. This 3% is responsible for 50% of the murders in the country. This has been the case for many years but Mr Wray never seemed that concerned.

Rules of War

Hamas has become a formidable force. Their strategy of hiding in tunnels while allowing Palestinians to be unprotected from the Israeli attacks is working. They have taken the supplies they need to survive many months into the tunnels while the people above ground are slowly being bombed. Each day that passes the killing of innocent Palestinians will flood the news and the attack on the Jews on October 7 will fade into the past. There will be more and more talk about the rules of war and getting supplies to civilians and the idea of a cease fire will become the central theme of world news. This will all be aggravated by the hostage situation which is expressly prohibited by the rules of war. In short order the good guy Israelis will become the bad guy Israelis.

Interest

The idea of deficit spending has become so entrenched in our government that conservatives who want to cut spending are referred to as right wing extremist. Some years down the road when the interest on the debt begins to weaken economic growth all those who pushed for more spending will deny they were part of the group that didn't think the debt would ever be a problem. Twenty years ago the interest on the debt was $290 billion and this year it is $980 billion. This is 11% of the budget compared to 13% for defense and 13% for Medicaid. During this time the Fed Fund interest rate has increased from 1.5% to 5.5%. As the country continues reshoring inflation will rise and the hope is that increased productivity will outpace inflation. Is counting on hope enough?

Monday, October 30, 2023

Jews

Watching how the Jews are being attacked in public reminds me of my days in Grand Forks. I had good friends who owned a women's clothing store who were Jews and when anything of interest happened in Israel, I would visit with them to get their take. On one occasion the subject of people rising up against Jews came up and I posed the question how would people even know who the Jews were and they responded in a rather ominous tone, they know. Now I understand what they meant.

Sunday, October 29, 2023

Accords

The Gaza War brings to mind President Obama's speech to the Arab world when he first came into office. It was somewhat controversial because in Obama's book about his father entitled, Dreams From My Father, he was influenced by the fact that his father fought against the colonization of Kenya by the British. Some feel that Obama saw the relationship between Israel and Palestine as one of colonization. Obama spoke of strengthening ties with the Arab world. The 2009 Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to United States President Barack Obama for his "extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples". In 2020 The Abraham Accords were signed normalizing relations between Israel and two Arab countries and the Peace Prize went to The World Food Program.

Convention

The Democratic convention will be held in Chicago next summer and it could be reminiscent of the 1968 convention when things got out of hand. It was a time of the Civil Rights movement and the protest against the Vietnam War and riots broke out in the streets and at the convention center. This year the country is dealing with the war in Ukraine which is becoming less popular by the day and the War in Gaza which is dividing democrats along the line of oppressor vs oppressed. Jews and Catholics have for many years been strong democrats but those votes are now in jeopardy. People in general are upset with the economy, mostly because of inflated cost of basic items, while they are confused about social justice issues like gender identity.

Hamas

The World Food Program is part of the UN but gets no funding directly from the UN. Funds come from voluntary contributions by individuals from around the world. In 2022 the program received $14.1 billion and the US gave 50% of the total. WFP has provided food and cash assistance to over 555,000 Palestinians since the start of the current crisis. Palestine also receives aid from countries. The US a major contributor, providing more than $5.2 billion through USAID since 1994. In recent years, this aid has totaled around $600 million annually. Biden is now requesting an additional $100 million for Palestine. Since Hamas is in control it would not be unreasonable to assume that much of this money is used to fund the military. Most agree that Hamas went into Israel to bring attention to their plight and then to curry sympathy from the rest of the world by goading Israel into retaliation. If this were true why did they behave in such a brutal way. If they had just captured some Israeli's for negotiating purposes they could have done so in a more humanitarian way. Something doesn't add up. One explanation is that the invaders were high on some drug that clouded their judgment.

Income

John and Mary have not planned and Mary has to go to the nursing home. Their only assets are their house, car and personal belongings but John has income of $8,000 per month and Mary only has $800 per month from social security. Mary is eligible for Medicaid assistance but she must turn over her $800 per month less $100 for personal expenses. The house, the car and personal stuff remains with John as does all of his income because Medicaid does not consider the income of the non-institutionalized spouse. When only one spouse of a married couple applies for Nursing Home Medicaid or a Medicaid Waiver, only the income of the applicant is counted. This means the income of the non-applicant spouse does not impact the income eligibility of their applicant spouse.

Annuity

John and Mary have been frugal over their lives and have saved a sizable estate of $200,000. Their only income is social security with John receiving $2,000 per month and Mary getting $800 per month. This is what they live on supplemented by $4,000 per year in interest (5%) from their savings. John and Mary did no estate planning and suddenly Mary age 80 has a stroke and goes into the nursing home. Using Medicaid rules John ends up with most of the income (his $2,000 and her $800) but that still leaves him short each month. John can purchase a Medicaid-compliant annuity to protect the $200,000 from Medicaid recovery and still get the income. It is a way to transfer assets to income and is not limited by the five year look back. The type of annuity is very specific and must be set up by a knowledgeable Eldercare attorney. It must be irrevocable and immediate meaning John gives up control of the $200,000 but starts getting a check each month. The duration must be less than John's life expectancy. John is 80 years old so his life expectancy is 7 year so he get $28,000 per year for the next 7 years. If John dies while there is still money in the annuity the proceeds go to Medicaid. Medicaid-compliant annuities allow applicants to meet Medicaid’s asset criteria by reducing their non-exempt assets, thus making them eligible for Medicaid benefits, such as long-term care. For married couples, Medicaid-compliant annuities enable the healthy spouse to continue receiving supplementary income.

Income trust

John and Mary are retired and have $400,000 in a savings account composed of bank CD's, Money Market Certificate and Bonds. They want to protect that money from Medicaid recovery it either one goes into the nursing home. There is a Medicaid approved Income Trust that they can use. It is an irrevocable trust where John and Mary are the Grantor's (creators of the trust) and their son James is the trustee and their children the beneficiaries. John and Mary can continue to receive the income from the trust but the principal is no longer in their estate and after five years not available for recovery by Medicaid. They can still have access to the principal but only through James the trustee releasing funds to the beneficiaries. An irrevocable trust is a very powerful tool for Medicaid Asset Protection, as it allows you to shelter assets from a nursing home after they have been in the trust for five years. Even though sometimes people worry about ever being able to access that money, there is, in fact, a way to do that. Most irrevocable trusts provide Medicaid Asset Protection by not allowing you, the Grantor and Trustee, the ability to access the principal that’s placed into the trust. However, you do have the ability to make distributions of principal to the principal beneficiaries, who are usually the children. So, let’s say you and your spouse put a significant amount of assets into an irrevocable trust, and seven years later, decide you would really like to see the world. In that instance, you simply make a distribution of principal from your trust to a principal beneficiary. The beneficiary is then free to use that money as they see fit – in this case, buying a pair of around the world cruise tickets for their parents. Thus, in certain instances, it is possible, indirectly, to access funds that you have placed into an irrevocable trust in order to protect assets from a nursing home.

Trust

The average probate cost in MN is 3% and takes 12 to 18 months during which time the property must be cared for and taxes, utilities and insurance paid. Property with named beneficiaries does not pass through probate, items such as IRA's, 401K's and life insurance so the main concern is deeded property which in most cases is the house. In order to avoid probate on the house people set up a Revocable Living Trust. John and Mary own their home. They want to pass this home on to their children and not have to go through probate. John and Mary, called the Grantors, set up the trust usually at a cost of a couple thousand. John and Mary are the trustees and their children are the beneficiaries. John and Mary can change this trust at any time including revocation of the trust and that is why it is called a revocable trust. Since they have not given up control of the property it remains in their estate meaning it is subject to Medicaid recovery. If John and or Mary use Medicaid assistance to pay for nursing home expenses Medicaid can sell the house when they die and use the proceeds to reimburse Medicaid. To keep the house safe from Medicaid Recovery they must use an Irrevocable Trust which means they must give up control of the property. This must be done five or more years before either one goes into the nursing home because Medicaid has a five year look back rule and any property removed from the estate during that time is subject to recovery.

Saturday, October 28, 2023

Gaza

The people on the news keep asking the question about what happens in Gaza after Hamas is destroyed. They can follow the example of what happened to Germany at the end of WW 2. Germany, a country many times larger than Gaza with many more people was completely destroyed but the US under the Marshall Plan came in and rebuilt the country and Germany became an ally and an industrial power house. Gaza could be rebuilt as a Mediterranean tourist mecca lined with high rises much like Los Cabos in Mexico or even Miami Beach.

EV's

The Electric Car frenzy is slowing as people get over the novelty and recognize the reality. Toyota the world's largest car maker had a CEO who just quit saying EV's are not the future. This week GM jumped on the band wagon. The companies confirmed they would end the affordable EV effort after GM scaled back some near-term EV targets, announced delays in production of at least three upcoming EVs and disclosed additional details about postponing the build-out of a second all-electric truck plant in Michigan until late 2025. In August 2023, it took about twice as long to sell an EV in the U.S. as it did the previous January. Most EV owners have a second gas powered car and about one forth of owners do not buy a second EV. The future is for hydrogen powered cars and small trucks and using hydrogen combined with CO2 to synthesize diesel for other transportation.

Debt

There is an old saying that goes like this. He had more luck than sense. It refers to a positive outcome when the person involved had little understanding of what was happening. The United States may be embarking on just such a scenario. The national debt has exceeded $33 trillion and poses a long term threat. Just when things seem to be going bad along comes de globalization which means bringing production back home. For forty years the US has been moving production over seas and that is now changing. The US will be doubling its manufacturing facilities in the next few years and these new plants will have the latest technology combined with artificial intelligence which means increased productivity which allows for more profits which leads to more taxes going to the government which means paying down debt and chipping into the $33 trillion. Dream on. If the government would use this new tax revenue to pay down debt, that would be the outcome but will the government do that or will they just initiate new programs to garner votes. Based on past experiences the government will not chose to pay down debt because getting reelected is more important than strengthening the economy. One possible benefit is that as people earn more income they as individuals can choose to pay down debt but even that is iffy. The is the door opening to pay down debt but who will enter.

Deregulation

While Trump had many policy successes during his term there are other like minded politicians who could do the same thing if elected in 2024 but there is one area where they would not be as effective as Trump and that is what he famously refers to as draining the swamp. The bureaucrats in Washington have become so powerful they now represent a forth branch of government with more influence on the economy than the legislative or executive branches. This happened over the past forty years while the congress was stymied by partisan differences and all too often by disagreements with the executive. While these two groups fiddled the Romans lost their way. This malady spread into states and local governments which are now filled with people whose job is to write and enforce regulations on all aspects of daily life. They are everywhere and involved in everything. Many people of the liberal bent are going to run into these regulators when green deal projects come on the scene. The cry of shovel ready jobs will be drowned out by paper work as the environmentalist march on to save the planet. This is just one more reason why wind and solar will not replace fossil fuels. The answer is nuclear. Last year even Greenpeace founders admitted that nuclear is the way. (NewsNation) — A former director and founding member of the environmental organization Greenpeace says he disagrees with the group’s stance on nuclear energy. “Nuclear energy is the safest of all the electricity technologies we have,” Dr. Patrick Moore told NewsNation’s “Special Report.” Here was the Greenpeace position in 1971 when it was founded. Greenpeace has always fought – and will continue to fight – vigorously against nuclear power because it is an unacceptable risk to the environment and to humanity. The only solution is to halt the expansion of all nuclear power, and for the shutdown of existing plants. The people, many well meaning, who are pushing wind and solar today are making the same mistake that Greenpeace made. They are holding back the real progress that nuclear would bring in solving the problem of climate change

Thursday, October 26, 2023

What not why

This is a short synopsis of WHAT happened to the country these past almost three years. Trump was sailing along towards a second term when Covid hit and derailed his campaign. Fortunately he left us with the vaccine and the country in good shape. This was followed by the disastrous retreat from Afghanistan where instead of bringing out the people then the equipment and then the troops the people and equipment were left behind. Next came the attack on the oil industry which caused the country to move from energy independence to dependence. This was followed by the rise in transportation cost which led to inflation which led to higher interest rates. Next the border policies that were working were disbanded and illegal crossing increased five fold. The justices system was contaminated with social equity which led to DA's who refused to prosecute, the removal of cash bail and bashing police which caused a spike in crime. The sanctions on Iran were removed which allowed billions in oil money to flow into Iran. The Abraham Accords were on the way to a possible settlement in the Middle East. The next step if for the politicians to move in with the WHY. This is where both parties explain why the other party was the problem but the people are not interested in why. One interesting political change was in the past year the experts who said that Biden was the only one who could beat Trump are now saying that Biden is the only one who cannot beat Trump. The American people want to know what is going to be done. Here are some reasonable suggestions. First expand oil and natural gas production to ease hold the inflation rate. Re institute the border policies of the last administration including the wall. Get tough on crime by bringing back cash bail, forcing DA's to enforce the law and start backing the police. Push government policies that will encourage reshoring which is already underway. Place an oil blockade on Iranian oil shipments to cut off their money and the allow Israel to deal with the Gaza war. Resume the Abraham Accords to bring in the Saudi's. Sit down with Putin and negotiate a peace settlement which allows him to keep the Donbas region and a commitment not to bring Ukraine into NATO and then start the process of rebuilding Ukraine and start the flow of grain shipments to Africa.

Wednesday, October 25, 2023

Iran

The Trump domestic policies were so successful that his equal success in foreign policy is rarely discussed but it to was formidable. The low crime, secure border, pro police and defense, low inflation and energy independence over shadow the Abraham Accords and the sanctions on Iran. The Accords brought the two big Arab oil producing countries of UAE and Bahrain to signing normalization agreements with Israel. Israel already had peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan and Saudi Arabia was warming up to the idea. The long awaited Middle East peace was closer than at anytime. When the US became energy independent the Saudi oil became less important and the Saudi's were worried about losing the umbrella protection provided by the US. Iran with a much larger military was threatening the Saudi's and so the Saudi's wanted to get friendly with the US again. The stage was set for real progress but hopes were dashed when Hamas murdered Israeli's. One way to get things back on track is to block oil shipments from Iran, forget about nuclear bomb negotiations and put back the sanctions that Trump installed. Iran has anticipated the oil embargo by opening a shipping port on the Gulf of Oman which will bypass the choke point at the Straights of Hormuz but it would be simple for the US to block those ships. Everyone knows that Iran is the money and power behind the Gaza War.

Monday, October 23, 2023

Germany

We occasionally hear of examples where a person risks personal loss by standing up for principles but it is rare indeed when an entire country does this and that is what happened in Germany. Germany is the economic power house of Europe where manufacturing leads the way and their industries are dependent on an inexpensive supply of natural gas. It is critical for their chemical industry as well as home and factory heating. Before the Ukrainian War, Germany faced a decision which would determine the security of their country. They could side with Putin against Ukraine and keep the natural gas flowing or they could side with NATO and lose this valuable source of energy and they chose the latter. The country is now in a recession with high energy cost and forced to ship their manufacturing business to places like the US. This combined with the demographic problem of too few working age citizens is causing the world's forth largest economy to go into a tail spin. The US is building natural gas export facilities and Germany is building ports to receive the gas but this will take time during which Germany will suffer the consequences of their decision to side with NATO. They were willing to walk the talk and follow principal. Kind of refreshing.

Sunday, October 22, 2023

Green stuff

As people gain in understanding the energy transfer the world is going through there is one area that points out the irony of this transition. It seems those who are pushing the new green deal are the same people who oppose mining in the United States. They seem to be unaware that the production of windmills, solar panels and electric cars requires the mining, processing and disposal of the elements needed to manufacture the materials of the new green deal. One explanation is that they are uninformed or naive but a more likely explanation is that they are not really interested in climate change but rather social change. In insiders of the new green deal readily admit their interest is in the social aspect but many of their followers are not aware of this aspect of the deal. Here is quote from the NY Times The goal of the Green New Deal is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to avoid the worst consequences of climate change while also trying to fix societal problems like economic inequality and racial injustice. Note the second half of this statement of purpose. This is the aim of those who are intimately involved in the green deal.

NATO

NATO was founded in 1949 with 12 countries and expanded to the 32 countries in NATO today. The original purpose of NATO was a counter balance to the Soviet Union threat to Europe. In 1991 the Soviet Union collapsed and the original purpose for NATO was eliminated. From the standpoint of the West the purpose of NATO shifted to control over Russia. In 1990 NATO Secretary of State James Baker promised Mikhail Gorbachev that "NATO will not expand one inch east". Later when expansion began the West said Baker only meant expansion in East Germany but the historical record of notes, letters, speeches and interviews that Western leaders were, in fact, already contemplating NATO enlargement by the time these talks took place. In 1997 Russian President Boris Yeltsin tried to secure a promise from President Bill Clinton that NATO would not expand but Clinton refused. Russia could not get the US to understand that it felt threatened as the West put rockets in Europe with only a few minutes strike time to Moscow. As late as November of 2021 Putin said that Russia would be forced to act if its red line on Ukraine were crossed but the West did not heed these warnings. It now appears that the purpose of NATO expansion from the start was to cause Russia to become a failed state. Now it seems that Ukraine is being sacrificed to achieve these ends.

Thorium

When the subject of wind and solar comes up, no one ever asks the question as to how airplanes will fly. The reason they don't ask is because planes cannot fly on batteries for the same reason ocean liners, rail road locomotive, heavy manufacturing machines, heavy military tanks, and heavy farm equipment cannot run on batteries. That is why thorium nuclear power is the answer. Thorium reactors produce so much heat they can run power plants to produce electricity but also make hydrogen. Hydrogen can be combined with carbon dioxide from the air to produce gasoline, aviation fuel and diesel. This is needed because diesel is energy intensive compared to natural gas. One gallon of diesel contains 138,000 BTU's while natural gas contains only 69,000 BTU's. There will still be heat left over to desalt sea water. Experts say that food and energy will be in short supply in the future and thorium nuke plants solve both those problems while operating carbon free and/or neutral. The three main uses of fossil fuels are power, transportation and chemicals. Thorium will provide the electricity produced by power plants, the energy needed for transportation and hydrocarbons used in related industries like chemicals. There will be no need for windmills, solar panels and electric cars and all of the associated problems with mining, processing and disposing of dangerous elements like cobalt, lithium, copper and rare earths. There will be no heavy metals spewing into the atmosphere and no acid rain. We will have clear air and clean water.

Saturday, October 21, 2023

Ukraine

It was quite interesting when President Biden explained the war materials we are sending to Ukraine as just using up our old stock which will be replaced with new government orders. This is an example of what Eisenhower meant when he used the phrase military industrial power. Up to this point the big losers in the war have been the Ukrainians and the big winners the US defense contractors. When the government sends $100 billion to Ukraine they are indirectly sending $100 billion to the defense industry. It is true that this provides high paying jobs but this money could be going to building thorium power plants to fight the war of climate change. This too would provide high paying jobs without killing Ukrainians. Just sayin

Israel

Many college educated liberals believe that there is hidden racism in the Midwest and Southern parts of the country. Thus the Hilary description of this group as deplorables but people in the middle of the country do not see themselves as racist. There has always been the same feeling about antisemitism and that seem to have more credence as protest have broken out across the country. The issue of antisemitism has been contaminated by the concept of oppressor and oppressed. Many groups of protesters see Israel as the oppressor that just happens to be Jewish. Antisemitism has been around for 3,000 years and Jews have been the oppressed. It is only since 1948 when Israel became a state that the Jews have become the oppressors and that is the result of the wars where they defeated a much larger army. Since the United States supplied Israel with the weapons they needed to win these wars the US has become the big Satan. The whole strategy of Hamas is to play the roll of the oppressed and this fits right in with what colleges have been preaching for years. The same idea has filtered down into high school.

Russia

President Biden's speech was in two parts. The first was about Israel which was supposed to be the reason for a prime time address and he confirmed our commitment to Israel which was good. He wavered a bit on the concept that there are good people on both sides which borders on equivalency which is not good. The second was his commitment to Ukraine in which he laid out the next step in the war when he said we cannot let Russia win. That was code words for if Russia starts to win we will send in NATO (US) troops. If it comes to that the fading commitment from the American people will fast disappear and we will be forced to settle for a compromise, which is what should have been done two years ago. The US will end the eastern expansion of NATO including Ukraine, cede the Dombas Region to Russia in return for Russia pulling out. After this humiliating experience where the Russian Army was exposed for the disaster it is, Putin will not be ready for any further expansion. By the time Russia recovers from this embarrassment, Putin will be too old to dream of rebuilding the old Soviet Union. Russia demography shows the lack of young people of working age and it will likely not recover from that. Russia will go the way of the Soviet Union.

Friday, October 20, 2023

Palestine

The peoples of the Mediterranean are considered Caucasian. These are the countries of North Africa from Morocco to Egypt and Asian countries including Israel, Syria, Lebanon and Jordan. The Palestinians also fall into this group so it is strange when Israelis are called White supremacist. If you wanted to make the Israeli's look like criminals it would be more accurate to accuse them of being oppressors and leave race out of it. Palestinian-Jewish rivalry is based in cultural and religious, but not genetic, differences. You only have to Google pics of Palestinian people to see they are Caucasian. People in the press made the same mistake with Afghani's who are also Caucasian. It makes a better story if the oppressors are White and the oppressed are not White.

Science

Any legitimate scientist should preface the answer to any question with the phrase, to the best of our knowledge this is what we believe today. The same could be said for a reporter. Not too many years ago this was the way. Today all that has changed because politics has poisoned both science and the press. When the Covid first appeared some scientist postulated that it could have come from a lab leak but they were immediately branded as conspiracy theorist and ridiculed by many in the scientific community. Without investigating the possibility of a lab leak, the whole idea was poo pooed. Now in looking back more and more evidence is pointing toward a lab leak. Polls show that 72% of the American people believe in the lab leak. There is nothing scientific about the poll results but it does show common sense. A virus which had never been around was suddenly discovered in a town in China where there just happened to be a viral lab working to develop such a virus. Now people do not have to be experts in virology to come to the conclusion that there may be a connection. Once people have jumped to an early conclusion there is pressure to maintain their original position even when new data seems to contradict their initial ideas. We have the same thing happening in the news media. An event occurs and immediately reports come out not just about what happened but what the reporter thinks that means. They feel their job is not just to report the news but to then come to some conclusion. Often times their conclusion is influenced by their political views. If they took the initial reports on the virus and took that to a conclusion it became very difficult to change their mind when new evidence was uncovered. A good example occurred this week when an errant rocket hit a hospital in Gaza. People have lost faith in reporters and in science.

Thursday, October 19, 2023

Riots

A number of news outlets including AP released information from Hamas that Israel bombed a hospital and it led to riots around the world. They made no effort to check the validity of the information before they published. Ohio (1969), the Supreme Court of the United States held the First Amendment does not protect speech that is “directed to inciting or producing imminent lawless action and is likely to incite or produce such action. Will these outlets be charged

War

Watching the news about Israel is mindful of the fact that wars fought since WW 2 have been different. When the US entered WW 2 the purpose was to win. There were no discussions about limiting attacks based on collateral damage but that has not been the case since WW 2. In Korea, Vietnam and Afghanistan the politicians not the generals have been fighting the war with one small exception. When Trump came into office ISIS was terrorizing people and Trump told the military to defeat them and then got out of their way. In short order ISIS was destroyed. Let the military do what they do best. They only thing that is accomplished when you go to war part way is that more of your troops are placed in danger. Israel has declared war and hopefully they will go in to win and not be concerned about collateral damage. Innocent people are going to die and that is what war is all about. If you try to go at war with the intent to limit collateral damage you will put your troops in an untenable situation.

New jobs

The oil that was produced from most all wells before fracking was called heavy sour meaning it had contaminants like sulfur and heavy metals. These got into the oil because of the way the oil formed. Oil from fracking is light sweet meaning it has far fewer contaminants like sulfur and heavy metals. This is because the oil from fracking was caught in rocks before it could pick up contaminants. The refineries around the world before fracking were designed for heavy sour crude and the US has been in the process of converting refineries to process light sweet oil. This takes time and in the interim there is a shortage of refining capacity for sweet crude. Thus the US is exporting light sweet crude and importing heavy sour. In the next few years there will be a shortage of oil world wide and this is exacerbated by Russia's decision to stop oil exports. Looking down the road five years or so the US will be the world's biggest producer and exporter of oil. The same will be true for natural gas which is a bi product of oil fracking. The US will need this extra oil and natural gas as building of new facilities will double the US manufacturing capacity in the next five or ten years. There will be many good paying jobs for people who have basic skills like reading and writing and can be trained on the job. The new plants will use the latest technology including AI and will require technicians as opposed to engineers. Companies will hire students right out of high school and train them. This is a great time to be a young person just coming in to their work careers,

Wednesday, October 18, 2023

DA

Letitia James ran for NY Attorney General with a campaign promise to get Trump. She will charge Trump in Manhattan District Court. This district voted 70% against Trump in the 2016 election. I have felt for years that the way to get Trump was to look into his business practices because it is well known that the construction business in New York City is corrupted and runs on bribes and favoritism which makes it difficult to operate without skirting the law. It will be difficult for Trump to get an unbiased jury in this district. While the job of the District Attorney is to see that justice is served, in practice they are rewarded for convictions. It may be difficult for DA James to serve justice when she saw him as guilty before she even had the job. She was then rewarded for claiming he was guilty by winning the election. It appears that the voters had also convicted Trump before he was charged.

Gaza war

It is common knowledge that there is a lot of prejudice against Jews in the world and here in the United States most acts of hatred against religion are against the Jews. The recent bombing of the hospital in Gaza has brought to light another source of prejudice. The AP and other news outlets immediately reported that the Jews had bombed the hospital. This was done based solely on reports from Hamas. No time was taken to check out the story just straight out reporting and this will likely continue as events unfold. In the Ukraine war when Russia reports some atrocity by the Ukrainians the press first checks the accuracy before reporting. When President Biden tells the Jews that they must be careful to limit collateral damage he is indirectly encouraging Hamas to put civilians in danger. Hamas has learned from past wars that their real strength is getting public opinion on their side and they do this by the killing of innocents. In the recent case of the hospital bombing the question to ask is which side benefits from this attack. Which side is hurt by this attack. This is the seventh war between these two parties since 1948 and each time the same strategy was used by the Palestinians and each time it worked. While the press is backing Israel now this will change and as time passes and as more innocent people are killed the press will slowly turn against the Jews. This type of reporting is absent from the war in Ukraine where many thousands have been killed and millions have been forced from their homes.

Tuesday, October 17, 2023

Oppressed

The categories of victim and victor have been replaced by oppressed and oppressor. In the 1960's certain groups came to understand that there were advantages to being a victim. It could move you to the head of the line when it comes to jobs and promotions as well as getting into certain schools. It could entitle you to certain government benefits. There is money to be made. Jesse Jackson formed the Rainbow collation and demanded payment from companies under economic threats. BLM collected millions from corporations lest they be called racist. It started with companies but quickly spread to individuals where it goes by the name of identity politics. Cancel culture comes after those perceived to be oppressors which means they say or do something not acceptable to certain groups. Teachers who say all lives matter or there are only two genders can be embarrassed or even ridiculed and subjected to social pressures to change their thinking. More and more people are just staying quiet about how they think rather than put up with criticism from people they don't know not to mention that in some cases they could lose their job. This brings up the subject of Woke. Woke means addressing issues of inequality, oppression and discrimination in society. Woke run amok means attempting to silence voices who disagree.

Thorium

Just as nuclear power is gaining acceptance the move toward thorium power is coming to the front. There are a number of reasons for this and one of importance is based on thermodynamics. It turns out that when you transfer heat from one substance to another the transfer becomes more efficient at higher temperatures. Current nuclear power plants produce heat at relatively low temperatures of 300 degrees Celsius whereas thorium reactors produce heat at 700 to 900 degrees C. Another important difference is that thorium reactors do not use water and water at high temperatures (300 C) is under pressure and requires large safety factors in case of explosion. This allows thorium reactors to operate in areas where there is water and no dangers associated with high pressure. The most important thing than can be done to move toward nuclear power is to educate the public.

Nuclear

The discussion of how nuclear energy will solve the problems of climate change comes in two parts. The first is generating electric power and the second is power for transportation and heating. The amount of power generated must be enough to provide the electricity needed to run the economy but have enough excess power to synthesize liquid fuels. As an added benefit the excess power can be used to produce hydrogen for fuel and to desalt sea water. Liquid fuels are made by combining hydrogen with carbon dioxide to produce hydrocarbons like methane and/or larger molecules like diesel. The carbon is removed from the air and added back to the air when burned. This provides a source of carbon neutral fuel for airplanes, ocean liners and heavy farm, construction and military vehicles. Nuclear is quietly making a come back as people realize that wind and solar cause too much damage to the environment.

Monday, October 16, 2023

Nuclear

Often times in the discussion of nuclear power the emphasis is how long and how costly these plants are to build. Here is an example. In the United Arab Eremites three nuclear power plants were built starting in 2012. The first was completed in Aug 2020, the second in Sept 2021, the third in Oct 2022 and the forth is scheduled for completion this fall. The cost was $20 billion dollars and the first three are now producing 5.6 GWe and these are larger than normal since the average plant produces one GWe. Nuclear power now produces 25% of UAE power. Production of nuclear power plants could be underway in the United States were it not for the emphasis on wind and solar.

Sunday, October 15, 2023

Food

The press has joined forces with the government and the big corporations that profit from war to promote the continued support for Ukraine. There is very little reporting about the calamities falling upon Ukraine and the Ukrainian people. As the food shortages, because of the war, begin to starve the people in Africa not much will be reported. One has to carefully research the Internet to find news. Outside of Ukraine, the war also continues to have a major effect on the global markets and food supply. The impact of the armed conflict on grain exports has worsened a global hunger crisis, with catastrophic impacts throughout the world.Aug 15, 2023 This type of news is not reported.

Mortgages

During the 1950's when I was growing up and bought my first home, most home loans were from local banks who held the loan and were at risk if the home owner defaulted. Because of this the banks were careful as to whom they offered loans. They had guidelines, things like minimum down payments and income requirements. In the 1980's institutional investors created mortgage bonds. This meant that local banks could sell local mortgages to Wall Street investors and not have to worry about defaults which of course led to easy loans. In about 2006 or 7 Wall Street greed for these new mortgages led to the home market collapse and about 5 million people lost their homes. The government looking for a solution encouraged Wall Street to purchase these homes at large discounts. Wall Street saw this as a way to make money and created Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT's) and started buying up homes but they didn't buy them to resell they bought them to rent and they are now profiting from REIT's. The housing crash has now come full circle. It was Wall Street that caused it and Wall Street is now profiting from it. For those too young to remember the same thing happened with the savings and loan (S&L) crisis of the 1980's which was precipitated by the junk bond scandal. The government delayed in closing down bankrupt S&L's which cost the government hundreds of billions. When all the dust settled the government created the Resolutions Trust Corporation (RTC) to dispose of the failed S&L's and these were most often sold back to the original investors at ten cents on the dollar so once again those responsible for the problem profited from the problem. Not much was done to help the millions of little people who suffered loses.

Saturday, October 14, 2023

America

Throughout the history of war, the saying to the victor goes the spoils was the norm but all that changed at the end of WW 2. The United States stood alone as the world's super power and was in the position to take what every territory they desired but they instead set about helping their enemies rebuild. After the surrender of Japan the US began the process of helping to bring back Japan into the international community by strengthening military, political and economic ties while it was rebuilding Germany with the Marshall Plan. One can only speculate how the world would have looked if Germany and Japan had won the war. Would they have been so gracious. The US was a democracy and the people did not desire world domination but rather they wanted to get on with their lives and forget about war. God Bless America.

Liberals

Back during the cold war years many liberals championed Castro's Cuba for its national healthcare, Hugo Chevez for his redistribution of the wealth and Cesar Chavez for his work to unionize farm workers. When Reagan called the Soviet Union the evil empire many liberals feared Reagan was starting WW 3 and chose the mantra, better red than dead. When Communism fell in Russia many of the liberals moved to the environmental movement and were called water melons meaning green on the out side and red on the inside. Many of these people can be found working as professors where then can pass on their beliefs to students who will then achieve positions of prominence in government and media where they follow the concept of comfort the afflicted and afflict the comfortable. They will quickly find themselves moving toward defending the Palestinian people against the Jewish oppressors. It is where they are most comfortable.

Friday, October 13, 2023

Oppressors

To study the Middle East is to expose a dilemma. The far left has long supported the Arabs because they see them as under the thumb of the White Western countries the same way they see the Blacks in the West as being treated as second class citizens. In both cases it is the oppressors and oppressed. On the other side is the fact that the liberals in the West see themselves as the champions of the equal rights for women and gays yet in Arab countries these groups have little to no rights. When the leader of Iran was asked how his country treats gays he responded saying they have no gays. Everyone knows how women are treated. It was considered a sign of progress a few years ago when women in Saudi Arabia were allowed to drive a car. In the West liberals champion the free democratic societies where the people elect their leaders but this is not the case in many Arab countries particularly those in the Middle East. The West promotes freedom of speech and freedom of religion but in many Arab countries those freedoms are not allowed. There are no christian churches allowed in Saudi Arabia. So for now many left leaning liberals will be faced with the dilemma and over the next few weeks or months they will slowly find themselves defending the Palestinians. The cannot chose the side of the oppressor. Going back to the 1960's groups like the Students for Democratic Society (SDS), Students Nonviolent Coordinating Committee (SNCC) and Yippies all groups composed of young Whites who were pro Palestinian were joined by Black Power groups. Many of these young people later became college teachers who promoted their pro Palestinian ideas.

Nuclear

Canada is leading the way in nuclear using government help and a private company called Candu Reactors. Nuclear reactors use 97% of supply chain materials from Canada. They provide high paying jobs for construction and operation. 90% of nuclear jobs are union jobs. Wind and solar have supply chains mostly in China where low skilled sometimes slave labor is used to make the materials. Canada realizes that the billions that will be spent to reduce carbon can be money spent and invested in Canada going nuclear or money sent to China going wind and solar. Once windmills and solar panels are installed there are very few jobs needed to maintain operations where as nuclear plants require long term high skilled labor. In the Biden Inflation Reduction Act there is a large tax credit for the first ten years of nuclear plant operations. This is just one more indication that nuclear is on the way.

Onshoring

Hormel Meat Company reached an agreement and this may be a harbinger of things to come. It follows on the heels of record benefit increases with UPS and Amazon. Union officials announced the vote late Wednesday, calling the new contract "historic" and highlighting $3-$6 an hour wage increases for workers at Hormel plants in Austin, Minn., as well as Wisconsin, Iowa and Georgia. Union officials said the contract also increases pension and 401K benefits while nearly doubling bereavement leave. The US experienced a decline in manufacturing jobs for 30 years between 1970 and 2000 and the country is now increasing these jobs. Since 2000 with small dips during the mortgage crisis in 2008 and the Covid in 2020 these jobs have grown. The United States has experienced a surge in construction spending for manufacturing facilities. Real manufacturing construction spending has doubled since the end of 2021. As globalization winds down reshoring is picking up. Manufacturing jobs are coming home as wages overseas increase. The benefits of shorter supply chains and national safety are becoming more important. Citizens are demanding that critical materials like pharmaceuticals be made in the US.

War

The support for the Israelis is strong across the world but time will change that just as support for Ukraine is changing. Just 41% of respondents said Washington should provide weapons to Ukraine, 35% disagreed and 24% were unsure in the two-day poll that ended Wednesday Oct 5. The poll of 1,005 U.S. adults shows a decline in support for U.S. weapons shipments since May, when 46% of Americans supported doing so and 29% were opposed. Support is declining among Republicans and Democrats. Democratic support for arming Ukraine fell from 61% in May to 52% this week, while Republican support fell from 39% in May to 35%. Hamas is counting on that. They know that when the bodies of Palestinians killed by the Israelis are put on the news that places like CNN will begin to question the reasons why innocent people are being killed. Support for the war in Afghanistan started off at 85% but twenty years later it was down to 45%. Support for the Vietnam War went from 61% in 1965 to 28% in 1971.

Dreams

The shine is coming off the Green bubble, as people begin to understand the mining, processing and disposing of the materials needed for green energy and the resulting harm to the environment that comes along with wind and solar. The recent rise in capital cost (higher interest rates) is another set back to wind and solar. Fossil fuels power plants have lower up front cost as long term the bigger problem is fuel cost whereas wind and solar have most of the cost up front. The real damage to the climate is the time wasted before it become apparent that nuclear energy is the answer. Meanwhile the world goes merrily along its way dreaming of windmills and solar panels.

Wednesday, October 11, 2023

Clean war

There are a number of experts saying that Israel must be careful not to go head long into Gaza. Recent history has shown that it is one thing to drive out the bad guys but another to own what you have created. It was quick success in defeating the Taliban but then we were stuck with Afghanistan. It was called success when the Iraqi Republican Army was driven out of Kuwait and later when Saddam was killed but then what to do with Iraq. It is easier to start a war than to end it. Everyone is all on Israel's side but when Palestinians civilians start to die the press will quickly see things differently. What people want is a clean war. No collateral damage but that is not the way things work.

Gaza

For some years now the concept of the oppressed and the oppressor has become popular in the US. Any minority group is considered the oppressed and this leads to the idea of victim-hood. If you are in these groups you deserve special treatment to make up for real or perceived mistreatment. This is the basis of reparations to the descendants of slaves. It was the basis for affirmative action. It changes the way people are tested for different jobs. It gives an edge to some for promotions. Its impetus is something called equity or equal results but equity only applies to victims. It is mindful of Orwell who said in socialism all people are equal but some are more equal. This is the thinking that causes some to champion the Palestinians as they invade Israel. The Palestinians are seen as victims. The income of a Gaza resident who works in Israel is six times higher than the average worker in Gaza and equity demands that their salaries be equal. 200,000 Palestinians enter Israel each day to work.

Terror list

While many people have expressed concern about the possibility of terrorist coming across the southern border, that concern has heightened since the invasion of Israel by Palestinians. So far this year 160 people on the terrorist watch list have been apprehended. These people may be detained, removed or turned over to another agency for detention or law enforcement action if necessary. These are people who did not turn themselves in as most do but tried to enter secretly and got caught. There are 1.5 million who did not get caught and are referred to as got aways. The assumption is that they did not want to get caught because they have something to hide. It appears we will wait until some internal attack happens and then there will be an investigation as to how this happened much like what is happening in Israel now and what happened after 9/11.

Monday, October 9, 2023

Ukriane

I have searched the Internet looking for the objective of the war in Ukraine. I have read the experts from the government and others in the press and the conclusion is not very comforting. It appears that they don't want Russia to win as this may encourage the Russians to engage in attacks on other countries. Conversely they don't want Ukraine to win as this may lead the Russians to use nuclear weapons. What remains is a stand off. The war will continue, to quote Biden, as long as necessary. Over time Ukraine will slowly be ground into dust while millions of refugees are relocated and thousands are killed and injured. This is the path the world has chosen instead of a negotiated peace. Offer Russia the Dumbas region and a guarantee that Ukraine would not join NATO if they withdraw their troops. This give Putin a victory because what he wanted from the start is to keep NATO off his door step.

Jews

The Jews feel like they have to respond to the attack against their country and this will play right into the hands of Hamas as they want to see a lot of innocent Palestinians get killed. They will put civilians in with the soldiers to increase the death toll. This they hope will draw other countries into the war. About all Israel can do is to try and get world opinion on their side. One way to do this is to turn the tables on the hostages. Hamas hopes to use these hostages as bargaining chips. In 2006 the Israeli's traded one hostage captured by Hamas for 1000 Palestinian prisoners many of whom had been convicted of deadly attacks on Isrealis. The Jews can now send a letter to Hamas published in the news saying they have 48 hours to release the 100 hostages. If they refuse then following the precedent set in 2006, of 1000 to one, the Jews will proceed to kill 100,000 Palestinians. When innocent civilians are killed, which always happens in war, the Jews can say we tried.

Iranian oil

On all the news outlets both print and TV there is agreement that Iran is the basic supplier of funds and weapons to groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. In 2016 Obama released the freeze on $150 billion dollars in Iranian assets that were being held in various countries. He also sent $1.7 billion dollars in cash which included $400 billion in money that was owed to Iran for many years which included $1.3 billion in interest. Why he decided to do this after many years was never explained. Oil exports from Iran dropped each year during the Trump administration falling from over 2 million barrels per day in 2016 down to 400 thousand in 2020. Since then oil exports have increased. 2023 saw the highest volume of Iranian exports since 2018, when the Donald Trump administration unilaterally left the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and reimposed all sanctions. Reuters reported that Iranian oil production increased to 3.15 million barrels per day (bpd) this month, the highest figure since 2018. Much of the money that Iran uses to support the various terror groups comes from the sale of oil.

Financial plan

A good financial life time plan includes three parts. First is the accumulation of estate during your working years. Second is the early retirement years and third is the late retirement years. So you have worked forty years and have built up your assets and now is time to retire. The next ten to fifteen years you spend your time doing all of those things that you talked about when you were working but by age 75 or so things that looked interesting when you were younger take on a different feel. Now is the time for you to begin to reduce your estate by transferring assets to your heirs. To do this properly means you must start at least five years before you can no longer function on your own. If you fail to plan in advance you make things more difficult and sometimes your heirs will not receive much of what you worked your whole life for. When you retire it would be to your advantage to discuss things with an eldercare attorney.

Sunday, October 8, 2023

Hamas

Before 2007 the Palestinian Liberation Authoritrty (PLO) headed by Yasser Aarfat controlled both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Israel pulled out of Gaza in 2005 turning the territory over to the PLO. The people of Gaza then held an election and chose Hamas to represent them. This then led Gaza to be like an escape place for Hamas invaders much like Pakistan was during the war in Afghanistan. There have been skirmishes between Hamas and Israel ever since. The cross border conflict that started yesterday was by far the biggest incursion yet. Israel has now declared war and will inflict heavy casualties on the people of Gaza who do not really want Hamas to be in control but they are stuck with them since they elected them in 2007. Unlike the PLO, Hamas does not recognize Israel's right to exist and promises to drive all Jews from the region. Hamas did this so they can have war. Now they will show all the innocent civilians who will be injured and killed by the Jews seeking support from other countries and many have supported them in the past. Among the G20, nine countries (Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Turkey) have recognized Palestine as a state while ten countries (Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and the United States) have not.

WTO

As the move toward deglobalization gains momentum groups like the WTO are showing deep concern. They praise the increase in international trade and emphasize the millions of people who have moved out of poverty. They feel comfortable moving manufacturing jobs away from the West as a way to bring people up to a living wage in Asia. They see only progress when you compare 40 million workers going from $30 per to $15 per to one billion people going from $2 per day to $2 per hour. They are also concerned about their losing influence in directing the world economy. The world looks quite different to a college education bureaucrat sitting in an air conditioned WTO office in Geneva, Switzerland and a laid off steel worker in Michigan.

Oil

The oil situation in Russia is suffering from a self inflicted wound rather than from the export sanctions. The sales for export oil and oil products have merely shifted from Europe to Asia with Turkey, China and India leading the way so why did Russian shut down all exports in September of this year. It turns out that the price of oil products sold within the country of Russia can only increase at the inflation rate which was 5% in Russia. Because of that the oil industry was exporting most of its products because the price was higher but this led to a shortage within the country and internal pressure forced the government to shut down exports. This not only cuts into the income the country needs but they are still producing oil at the well head and soon will run out of storage and be forced to shut down the wells. This could lead to serious consequences if it occurs in cold weather which is just a few months away. The main oil wells are in the cold weather zone and if shut down the pipes will freeze and bust. The last time this happened was in 1990 when the Soviet Union collapsed and it took years to recover and that was using engineers from the West who had the knowledge. This time these engineers will not be available because of the war. Russia is between a rock and a hard place.

Saturday, October 7, 2023

Jobs

The end of globalization has caused a number of concerns which lead to onshoring in the US. Supply-chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and rising geopolitical tensions are spurring an increasing number of U.S. companies to rethink a longstanding practice of planting all or some of their manufacturing operations in faraway lands, such as China While onshoring isn't a cheaper option it offers improved supply chains, lower shipping cost, faster turnaround times, better quality control and the use of local employees and innovation. Reshoring operations added an estimated 350,000 jobs in the US in 2022, surpassing the previous high of 265,000 the year before. That accounts for 38% of the total 1.6 million jobs added to the US economy from reshoring since 2010, indicating a notable acceleration in the process. It is not just manufacturing jobs. Walmart said it plans to spend an additional $350 billion on products made, assembled or grown in the U.S. over the next decade. In a corporate blog post, Walmart U.S. CEO John Furner said the decision will benefit the environment and the U.S. economy by sourcing goods closer to customers and creating demand for jobs. The coming years will be a great time for young people just coming into the work force.

Bureaucrats

The first time the word gridlock was used in regards to government was in the 1980's but it has described what has happened to government over the past 40 years. The inability of the legislative branches to agree and when they do they conflict with the executive branch which leaves the running of the government to the bureaucrats. The result is that the bureaucracy has become the forth branch of government and for many, it is the most powerful branch. While the congress passes laws it is up to the bureaucracy to implement the laws and this is where the real control lies. This is how whole industries can be effected by people who were not elected by anyone. The stories of loggers losing their jobs over the spotted owl and farmers going broke because of the snail darter are just a couple of examples of how these bureaucrats can effect the lives of ordinary people. The regulations surround nuclear power and the mining of minerals cause long delays in moving forward. This will come to the forefront as the need for metals like lithium and cobalt start to effect the production of electric cars.

Poll

A Marquette University Law school poll Issue Who better on issue Biden Trump Both about the same Neither good Inflation 27 50 11 12 The economy 28 52 9 11 Immigration and border security 28 52 7 13 Creating jobs 30 49 12 9 Foreign relations 38 43 7 11 Medicare & Social Security 39 37 11 12 Abortion policy 43 34 9 14 Climate change 44 24 15 18 This may be why democrats talk about abortion, climate change and taking SS away from Grandma and why republicans talk about the economy and immigration.

Police

The defund the police cry that spread among cities after the George Floyd killing was considered by some an unrealistic approach to solving the problem of rogue police officers. These people thought this was just a small group of extremist who did not understand that going without police is dangerous. Here is a little reminder of what happened in Minneapolis/ The Minneapolis City Council on Friday, 18 days after the death of George Floyd, unanimously passed a resolution to replace the police department with a community-led public safety system. Note that all 13 members voted for this. It was not just some fringe group as many suggested. Approximately 56% of voters rejected a ballot question that would have removed the Minneapolis Police Department from the city charter and replaced it with a "public-health oriented" Department of Public Safety.Nov 2, 2021 It is hard to believe that 44% voted for the ballot. Imagine what Minneapolis would look like today if this ballot has passed. Many felt that defund the police was misnamed that people just wanted to reform the police but not in Minneapolis.

AGAAVE

This is from Newsweek Magazine this past week. The federal government believes that the threat of violence and major civil disturbances around the 2024 U.S. presidential election is so great that it has quietly created a new category of extremists that it seeks to track and counter: Donald Trump's army of MAGA followers. But the FBI went further in October 2022 when it created a new subcategory—"AGAAVE-Other"—of those who were a threat but do not fit into its anarchist, militia or Sovereign Citizen groups. Introduced without any announcement, and reported here for the first time, the new classification is officially defined as "domestic violent extremists who cite anti-government or anti-authority motivations for violence or criminal activity not otherwise defined, such as individuals motivated by a desire to commit violence against those with a real or perceived association with a specific political party or faction of a specific political party."

Friday, October 6, 2023

STEM

California where only 23% of students are proficient in math will make changes in the name of equity. Students will take algebra in 9th grade instead of 8th as it was in my day. But in my day no students took calculus in high school. Taking algebra in 8th allows the students to take calc in high school. This is the gateway to STEM when they get to college. The country is in dire need of engineers and scientist and these careers require calculus. STEM careers also promise jobs that pay more to the point where students can afford to pay back their loans. High schools can be set up to provide four years of math for students who are interested in STEM and two years of math for those who are not interested. Right now third year students are required to take algebra 2 and chemistry and this should be there only for those who want to follow careers in STEM. Others should spend that time on other classes that will improve their reading and writing skills.

Thursday, October 5, 2023

Change

The concept of social justice got off track when it was decided that criminals should not be punished. When laws allow for theft of up to $900 and that is combined with no cash bail and DA's who refused to prosecute crime will increase. Over the past three years crime has been on the upswing but only Fox News covered it. That is now changing as the NY Times reported, America's Downtown where one crisis now spirals into the next. As spiking rates of homelessness, drug overdoses, violent crime and psychosis threaten to overwhelm the public safety. Combine that with the same story on the border, where only Fox covered the migrants but that is changing now that migrants are in the Northern cities. Department of Homeland Security boss Mayorkas who only a couple of weeks ago was saying that the border is secure has now said there is an "acute and immediate need" for a border wall. If things are not working it is time to change the plan and he gets credit for that.

Wednesday, October 4, 2023

Simplification

There is a new theory of the world floating around called "The Great Simplification" and its bases is the running out of fossil fuels and deglobalization. While this idea is correct when it comes to deglobalizing it is not correct on the energy side. These theorist seem completely unaware of thorium nuclear power. The say that since we are running out of cheap energy (fossil fuels) the world will have to contract and people will be forced to get by on less. It appears to many that the ignorance of thorium is by design so they can predict a doom and gloom future that will sell books. This type of strategy has been used many times in the past to sell certain ideas. In fact the opposite is true. With the onset of cheaper energy (thorium) along with new technology and new production facilities the world will manufacture needed products in more efficient way and bring a new wave of prosperity. It will not be equal at first since certain areas like North America have distinct advantages but in time this will spread to other areas like Asia and Africa. There are many advantages to thorium and one of the most important from the standpoint of developing countries, is the desalting of sea water to grow crops in the desert. This will lead to an abundance of food allowing time for other activities. This same thing happened thousands of years ago when man moved from hunting and gathering to planting crops and it will happen again on a much larger scale.

Monday, October 2, 2023

Doublethink

In school today they were reading Orwells 1984 and he coined the word doublethink which today is called cognitive dissonance. Orwell's definition is not saying the opposite of what one thinks but thinking the opposite of what is true and that better explains what is happening today. This is all led by the media with the first step being not to cover some issue which leads people to not being aware of the issue which leads to not believing the issue. For over two years the situation at the border has been deteriorating and no one seemed to care until recently when the issue became news and now people are concerned. The same thing happened with crime. No coverage so no problem but now that it is out in the open people are getting concerned. When Homeland Security head Mayorkas says the border is not open and TV shows migrants streaming across that is doublethink but no one was concerned about his misinformation until things became public. When rioters were swarming in a hundred cities the press referred to it as peaceful demonstrations and now people are seeing the results as crime is now reported. One of the most effective ways to disinform is to not inform. The latest example is the coverage of the Biden family situation. Will the public eventually be concerned if this starts getting reported. A year ago polls showed people with no interest in the Biden family activity and today the polls show 61% thing Biden is involved in his sons business. This only changed when congress started to investigate.

Teachers

Flash! Possible good news for teachers. England has proposed to ban phones in schools. The move will bring England in line with other countries that have already implemented a ban, including France, Italy and Portugal. There would be no more, "put your phone away" from teachers, giving them more time for the lesson.

Lithium

The US is about to get tested. A large lithium deposit has been discovered along the Oregon-Nevada border in an area known as the McDermitt Caldera. Mining in the area is controversial, as it is sacred land to many indigenous tribes and a valuable habitat for animals like the sage grouse. Lithium mining requires the use of large amounts of fresh water which is a scarce commodity in that area. Five years ago a similar find in Maine caused the state to immediately object. EV batteries require large amounts of lithium along with cobalt, nickle and copper and there is not enough without opening new mines. If they start production on a mine it will be some years until the first ore comes out of the ground. They need EPA approval followed by issuing of permits and building the infrastructure to bring heavy equipment in and ore out. The next step is processing which uses dangerous chemicals like hydrochloric acid. If they are going to do this they need to start building the processing plant while they are building the mine to save time. It will be a battle among the Greens. Do they want the EV's bad enough to dirty up the ground water or will they move the processing to another country as we have done in the past.