Tuesday, November 28, 2023

Argentina

Argentina's new President Javier Milei is either a very confident man or a fool. The country is facing 140% inflation. Milei is pledging economic shock therapy. His plans include shutting the central bank, ditching the peso, and slashing spending, potentially painful reforms that resonated with voters angry at the economic malaise. He won a sizable victory with 56% of the vote. Getting rid of the central bank is one way to stop the printing of money but it will take a severe austerity program to bring down inflation. He plans to clean house in government. He is an outsider, a professor of economics with no political experience. He will be going from the Ivory Tower to the real world so it is worth while to watch. When the government starts cutting spending how will the people react. Once the Peso is gone and the dollar takes its place the government can no longer print money and so they no longer need the central bank. The cut in spending must precede the decline in the inflation rate so the people will have to take the medicine before they feel the cure. There will likely be a recession with high unemployment and not much money to hand out.

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