Regulations

Many contend that there is a forth branch of government called the bureaucracy and it has gained far too much power because congress has gotten lazy and just turned over the running of the government to these various agencies. The recent Supreme Court ruling overturned the Chevron v Natural Resources case and it limited the power of agencies. This was heralded by many as a step in the right direction. These agencies are like Topsy, they just grow. Take the example of the city that is over run by stray dogs and they need to hire a dog catcher. They want someone who will do a good job, someone who is ambitious and willing to work long hours. They find the right candidate and he sets out on his goal of being the best dog catcher in history and the city fathers promise to help him in any way they can. He first needs a facility to house the strays which means a new building. Next he says this is a 24/7 job and he needs at least three assistance and a special wagon to collect the dogs. Each of the collected animals must be inspected by a veterinarian who in turn must give them shots. There must be special facilities constructed to take care of the animals that the Vet decides to put to sleep. A person is hired to care for the kennel and help to place the dogs in proper homes. Within a few years the problem is under control but the dog catcher is looking for ways to improve his department which he says will require more people. And that is the way a good department is run. Each year they need a bigger budget so with government agencies this means enacting more regulations. Forbes Magazine recently publish information on the cost of regulations at $3 trillion per year. That $3 trillion breaks down to $277,000 in average annual compliance costs for a typical U.S. firm. The report further notes that “The cost per employee for the typical U.S. firm is almost $13,000. This cost of federal regulation in the typical U.S. firm equals 19% of payroll expenditures.”

Free speech

The Covid experience did many things, one of which was to expose the idea of misinformation as a threat to free speech. Case in point. Dr Jay Bhattacharya was blacklisted for raising questions about how school lock downs might affect the nation's children. Later Dr Fauci said keeping schools shut down for so long amid Covid was not a good idea. Conversely President Biden said if you get the shot you won't get Covid and if you get the shot you won't pass on Covid. Here is a quote from Biden at a CNN town hall meeting. "You’re not going to get Covid if you have these vaccinations.” ;'

War

As the Ukraine War drags on the question arises as to who is this benefiting and the answer is found in the old adage, follow the money. WASHINGTON, Oct 27, 2023 (Reuters) - The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 is starting to boost defense contractors' revenues, as customers such as the U.S. government restock supplies shipped to Ukraine and countries around Europe arm themselves with an eye on Moscow's aggressions. Big defense contractors are doing OK. Since the war started General Dynamics stock has gone from 200 to 300. Lockheed Martin from 340 to 580. Northrup Grumen 350 to 520.

Zoomers

As the US moves merrily along its journey toward re industrialization, there will be a shortage of young workers, people 25 and under. These are the Gen Z's called zoomers born between 1997 and 2012. Data shows that half of this group are hard working socially adaptable and the other half are people who want to work alone. There will be a labor shortage in this group and it will be augmented by migrants coming across the southern border. These people will be an integral part of the expansion caused by the reshoring of manufacturing jobs. In past centuries, factory work was crowded, dirty, and dangerous. It was manual labor with few safety nets or workplace regulations. But reforms and modernization have turned the industry around. Manufacturing offers solid benefits, competitive salaries, and the chance to use your hands—and your brain. One good example is the textile industry. All of the clothes that used to be made in America were shipped to Mexico and later to Asia. During the Covid imports of clothes were curtailed and an interesting thing happened. Small businesses in North Carolina started up new clothing companies using high tech and modern methods and are now making clothes cheaper than those made in Bangladesh. These jobs will require a high school education and people will work side by side with robots making workflow faster, safer and more efficient. Instead of doing the work, these people will program and run the machines that do the work. These will be good paying jobs, many union, with benefits. It is a good time to be a young person in America.

Blades

Nuclear waste from 60 plus years in the US is stored in safe containers at various locations including at power plants. If all of this waste was placed in one location it would take up an area the size of a football field and it would be pilled 30 feet high. A football field is 1.3 acres. Here is just one site where wind blades are stored. Right across the road from the town cemetery in Sweetwater, Texas, sits another graveyard where the dead are never buried. Some 4,000 worn-out giant wind turbine blades are piled as far as the eye can see, taking up most of a 25-acre field. Over all in the US some 8,000 blades were pulled down in 2021 and between 10,000 and 20,000 blades are expected to be at the of their lifespan between 2025 and 2040. The overall result of replacing fossil fuel with wind and solar is just exchanging clear air for dirty water. It is happening every where materials needed for the new green deal are mined.

Green

As long as the green new deal has the ear of politicians nuclear will be left on the back burner. The preference for wind and solar is not based on science but on how these projects can be used to promote social benefits for certain groups. Here is their plan. In 2006, a Green New Deal was created by the Green New Deal Task Force as a plan for one hundred percent clean, renewable energy by 2030 utilizing a carbon tax, a jobs guarantee, free college, single-payer healthcare, and a focus on using public programs. One way to better understand the differences between wind and solar and nuclear is to compare France with Germany. France gets 61% of its energy from nuclear and 27% from renewable s while Germany gets 12% from nuclear and 48% from renewable s. The result is that France produces 39 grams of CO2 per Kilowatt hr and Germany 318 grams or nearly ten times as much. This situation is even worse since Germany has now shut down all of its nuclear power plants. The ultimate solution to climate change is nuclear but it is on hold until the politics gets out of the way. Trump understands this and is set to end the new green deal if election. Harris is a strong supporter. As a U.S. senator, Harris was an early co-sponsor of the Green New Deal, Harris unveiled a plan to spend $10 trillion to reduce greenhouse gas emissions with a goal of getting to a zero-emissions economy by 2045. Trump says he'll end 'green new scam' in latest threat to Biden clean energy agenda

CTC

One of the big problems facing the country is the widening wealth gap and the proposed increases in the child tax credit (CTC) by both sides will help to shrink this gap. Harris wants a one time $6,000 credit along with bringing back the $3,600 credit that was instigated during the Covid. Trump is proposing a $5,000 tax credit across the board. A $5,000 credit means a family of four will pay no income tax up $140,000. This means that 90% of families with two or more children will pay no income tax. The top one percent of taxpayers pay 26% of their income in taxes and this would have to increase to 35% to cover the child tax credit. To avoid loop holes the capital gains tax would be eliminated and all income would be taxed as regular income.

Trump foreign policy

What would Trump's foreign policy look like based on what he has done in the past and what he is saying now. First to Ukraine. He will negotiate a peace agreement offering Crimea and the Donbas territories along with a promise of not allowing Ukraine to join NATO in return for Russia ending the war. This opens the door for Ukraine and Russia to both export grain which will lower world prices and keep some in Africa from starving. Russian exports of oil and gas will once again flow free along with badly needed minerals like iron and aluminum. Russia will be invited to join the west in free trade. The European Union countries will begin the process of rebuilding Ukraine. In Palestine the US will fully back Israel to defeat Hamas and then reopen the Abraham Accords to bring the Saudis into the picture. The Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia will provide the capital and Israel the construction expertise to begin the process of rebuilding Gaza. The US will agree to protect the Saudi oil fields from threats by Iran. In time the Palestinian people will choose new leadership and this will open the door to the long awaited two state solution. The US will re institute the sanctions on Iran until they end their support for Hezbollah and the Houthis The push to end globalization will continue to bring jobs home. There is no certainty in any of this but it is a realistic goal.

Sputnik

Here is a headline from Reuters on December 8, 2023. China starts up world's first fourth-generation nuclear reactor. Here is later announcement. China has announced the construction of a nuclear power plant that will be fuelled by liquid fuel based on molten thorium salt. The Shanghai Institute of Applied Physics (SINAP) has been engaged in research in this area since 2011 focusing on liquid fluoride-thorium reactors (LFTRs).Jul 31, 2024 This may be the nuclear wake up call that Sputnik was for the space race. For those too young to remember Sputnik was the name given to the first satellite launched into space in 1957 and it was the Russians that did it. This caused a near panic in the US and many were urged to study science and engineering. It led to the formation of NASA in 1958 and resulted in the US becoming the leader in space exploration. Will this get the attention of the West. China plans not only to build these reactors but to sell them on the world market.

Harris

VP Harris gave a speech at the border this week where she sounded very much like Trump. Here are some of her comments. "Those who cross our borders unlawfully will be apprehended and removed and barred from reentering for five years," "We will pursue more severe criminal charges against repeat violators and if someone does not make an asylum request at a legal point of entry and instead crosses our border unlawfully, they will be barred from receiving asylum. While we understand that many people are desperate to migrate to the United States. Our system must be orderly and secure." "I will surge support to law enforcement agencies on the front lines, more personnel, more training and more technology, including 100 new inspection systems that can detect fentanyl hidden in vehicles." "We will make sure that our ports of entry, including airports and seaports, have additional state-of-the-art technology to detect fentanyl and the chemical tools used to make it," Harris said. "I will also double the resources for the Department of Justice to extradite and prosecute transnational criminal organizations and the cartels." Harris added, "The United States is a sovereign nation, and I believe we have a duty to set rules at our border and to enforce them. And I take that responsibility very seriously.

Wealth

Normally when people reach retirement age of around 65 they convert their assets into more secure investments meaning they move from stocks to money markets or cash. This in turn removes capital for investment purposes and causes a rise in capital cost. The US is somewhat different because the top one percent own 40% of all assets so they often do not transfer all of the assets into safe places. This leaves more money for investment. This is one of the few upsides to the wealth gap.

ESG

A few years ago there was, what might be called an altruistic push within big corporations to have a social conscious, euphemistically called doing well while doing good. In retrospect it turned out to be more a public relations ploy than an actual program. This concept made a come back in the form of pressure from big stock holders, companies like BlackRock and Fidelity. They felt it was a corporate responsibility to promote diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) and environmental, social and Governance (ESG) but this was too far too fast for many people so they backed off. It is still company policy but it is on the back burner. This was all done by private business without any push from government. In April of this year Europe passed into law their version of ESG with much stronger measures. This codifies the rules and many feel this could be next in the USA. One of the big concerns of ESG was climate change but that is fast losing steam and is a sign that the whole effort is dying off.

Trump

In the news recently one commentator referred to Trump as the common sense candidate and there are good reasons for this. Trump wants to make it difficult for people to cross the border illegally. He wants to place import taxes on countries that violate the rules of fair trade. He wants sanctions on Iran as long as they sponsor terrorism. He wants to jail repeat offenders. He want legal abortions with some restrictions. He understands that wind and solar cannot replace fossil fuels. He wants the country to be energy independent. He doesn't want to cancel student debt. He doesn't want to pay reparations. He doesn't what men playing in women's sports. He doesn't want schools keeping secrets from parents. He doesn't want sex change operations on children. He doesn't want to change the names of the Washington Monument or the Jefferson Memorial. He wants to negotiate and end to the Ukraine War. He wants to back Israel to the fullest. He wants to fight misinformation with more free speech. He wants to end globalization and bring jobs back home. He wants equality of opportunity not equality of results. He wants legal merit based immigration. He is pro police and wants a strong military. These are the policies he promoted when he was president and he will promote them again if reelected.

China

VP Harris criticized Trump's import tax on China which was a 10% tariff on $300 billion of Chinese goods. When Biden took office he kept the Trump tariffs and added 100% tax on Chinese EV's, 50% tax on solar cells and 25% tax on battery parts, critical minerals, iron and steel, aluminum and shore container cranes. Biden passed the Biosecure Act which bans Chinese biotech companies from US government contracts and the Countering CCP Drones Act which prohibits any new models from being approved and operated in the US. He passed the Decoupling From Foreign Adversarial Battery Dependence Act which forbids the US from buying batteries from six Chinese companies. Trade with China should be minimized because of their unfair trade practices. It will mean higher cost for US consumers in the short run but more products will be made in the USA following Trump's make America great and Biden's policy of America First.

Thorium

Most people are unaware that the first nuclear reactors were built at the Oakridge National Lab in the1960's. The first reactor used thorium not uranium because the builder Alvin Weinberg recognized the advantages that thorium presented. His reactor ran for four years with no problems but was shut down because thorium reactors cannot produce the fuel needed for a bomb. Weinberg was fired because his main concern was safety and efficiency and not bombs. The government then ordered that all the research material be destroyed but one engineer stored it in the basement of a nearby building. Many years later a NASA engineer, Kurt Sorenson, discovered the research and opened the door to the modern day small thorium reactors that are being built by several different companies. Government scientist, upon seeing Sorenson's information, persuaded the government to open thorium small reactors to federal programs. It is not much but it is a start.

Nuclear

In 1974 the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) was founded but it was not founded to promote nuclear power but to regulate. The NRC licenses and regulates the Nation's civilian use of radioactive materials to provide reasonable assurance of adequate protection of public health and safety and to promote the common defense and security and to protect the environment. The current head of the NRC, Christopher Hanson, is representative of the mission of the commission. Hanson earned master's degrees from Yale Divinity School and Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, where he focused on ethics and natural resource economics. He earned a Bachelor of Arts degree in Religious Studies from Valparaiso University in Valparaiso, Indiana. This man is not a scientist or engineer and has very little knowledge regarding nuclear power. He is not interested in developing new nuclear technology, things like small nuclear reactors but his interests is in keeping a tight rope in existing nuclear power plants.

FBI

J Edgar Hoover headed the FBI from the time of its founding in 1924 until his death in 1972. After he died it was revealed that he kept secret records on the private lives of millions of American citizens. There were many cases where this information was used for nefarious purposes mostly to control the activities of certain individuals. Such a situation has now arisen indicating that the secret information is still be collected. NY City Mayor Adams was a popular democrat until he complained about the way the Biden administration was handling the migrant crisis it brought on in New York. It took the federal government only a short time to bring charges against the mayor leading many to believe these charges were already known by the FBI.

Migrants

Immigration Customs Enforcement (ICE) released data on illegal migrants broken down by those in detention and not in detention known as non-detained docket. This includes illegal migrants who have final orders of removal but are not detained by ICE. There are currently 7 million in that group. The data says that, among those not in detention, there are 425,431 convicted criminals and 222,141 with pending criminal charges. Those include 62,231 convicted of assault, 14,301 convicted of burglary, 56,533 with drug convictions and 13,099 convicted of homicide. These figures do not include the estimated 1.7 million got a ways and these are considered to be hiding something possibly a criminal record.

Germany

Most people think that the leaders of countries are planning ways to make their respective countries better off but that is not always the case. Take energy in Germany. Germany went big for green energy starting in 1990. They abandoned their coal and shut down their nuclear. Coal production dropped from 400 million tons in 1990 to 100 million tons in 2023. They spent $2 trillion dollars on wind and solar but someone forgot that Germany doesn't have much sun or much wind. Because of the Ukraine War Germany is building new natural gas power plants. As an example of how being in the wrong place can ruin any plan. If you wanted to run NY City on solar you would need a solar farm the size of Ohio because they don't get much sun in that area. The other alternative is to place the solar panels in the southwest over 2,000 miles away.

Haitians

Over the past 4 years about 15,000 Haitian migrants have entered Springfield, Ohio a city of 59,000 people. These migrants are here legally under the Temporary Protected Status program. There is no data available as to how many are school age but most cannot speak English. The governor is sending help. Ohio has already provided additional resources to Springfield to help with education and training for drivers, to pay for more vaccines and health screenings in schools, and to enhance translation services, explained DeWine. Many students across the country are struggling because of the shut down during Covid but minority students are hurting since test scores already showed they were behind. These are students who are proficient in English and they are having trouble keeping. The Haitian students will also make it difficult for teachers who are already pressed trying to catch up.

Ukraine

Since the start of the war the West has sent $380 billion in aid to Ukraine and more than half has come from the US. A new poll taken Sep 24, 2024 finds that 66% of Americans want a NATO-US push for a negotiated settlement in Ukraine. Here is a quote the NY Times from April of 2023. Troop Deaths and Injuries in Ukraine War Near 500,000, U.S. Officials Say In May of this year the World Bank estimated it would cost $480 billion to rebuild Ukraine. Trump has promised a negotiated end to the war and Putin will be more than happy to get out. The sad thing about it is that this same settlement could have been reached before the war started. It is three things. First Ukraine can keep Crimea, second they can keep the Donbas region and third Ukraine will not be invited to join NATO. The old reason for going to war was to prevent Putin from taking over East Europe but now that the incompetence of the Russian war machine has been exposed that threat is no longer a concern. It is long past the time to end this war. No matter how dangerous Russia may have seemed Americans were not ready to send troops to defend Ukraine.

China

China's GDP is based on 42% investment and 19% export and whereas the US economy 68% consumption and 10% export. The remaining is government spending. China has kept their country booming by investments in infrastructure for the past 50 years. The Chinese people are not pron to invest in the stock market like the US. China's market is about $10 trillion whereas the US is $55 trillion. In China one of the few areas of personal ownership is a home and that is where the people put their money. They invest in the homes mostly with cash and then with any money left over they invest in apartments. The result is an over abundance of both and this is putting it mildly. Here is a Sept 2023 report from Reuters. Even China's 1.4 billion population can't fill all its vacant homes, former official says The result of this huge over supply is a drop in housing values of 30% over the past five years and this represents the assets of most people and many of these are approaching retirement and these homes represent their pension. This is of concern to the US which is currently in the process of reshoring manufacturing. It takes time to move production from China to the US and if China declines too quickly the US may not be able to rebuild fast enough which will result in shortages which will cause inflation.

Free market

China was a poor country for thousands of years as it was a daily struggle for people to feed themselves. At the end of WW 2 China became embroiled in a civil war and in 1949 the communist government headed by Mao ruled until his death in 1976. China's GDP under Mao held steady at $50 billion and during this time about 60 million people died from starvation. In 1978 China opened up to a free market economy and the country came alive. By 2000 the GDP had increased to $1,200 billion at which time China was allowed into the World Trade Organization. After that the GDP increased rapidly to $18,000 billion today. This was the result of globalization and brought 800 million Chinese out of poverty. Once again the world witnessed the miracle of the free market as opposed to the central government planning under communism. The same thing happened in India, Vietnam, South Korea and East Germany. Meanwhile the remaining communist economic systems in North Korea and Cuba continued to struggle even to this day. In spite of this there are people who think that communism will bring equality and the latest attempt was Venezuela which is now a basket case. It is so enticing to gain power by promising to take from the rich and give to the poor.

Carbon

US CO2 emissions are now at the same level they were in 1988 in spite of the fact that the US population has increased from 244 million to 335 million during that time period. This is primarily the result of moving from coal to natural gas in power plants. Coal usage in US power plants has gone from 1000 million tons 25 years ago to 300 million tons this year. Meanwhile the world's coal usage has remained steady at 8,000 million tons. While the US has been cutting back on coal the rest of the world has been increasing the use of coal with China leading the pack using 4,000 million tons or half the world's usage. During this time the world's CO2 emissions have doubled. During this same time period the world oil production has increased from 55 million barrels per day to 100 million barrels. Since 1988 world natural gas production has increased from 2,000 billion cubic feet to 4,000 billion. What this boils down to is that in spite of the fact that wind and solar have received billions in subsidies the growth in coal has remained constant an oil and natural gas have doubled. It is time for people to understand that wind and solar cannot replace fossil fuels and that the only answer is nuclear power.

Covid

As people learn more about how the government handled Covid there is a slow burn rising from within their guts. The people in charge quickly learned that Covid was a threat to the elderly, the obese and those with pre existing conditions but they chose to lock down most everyone. Old people died alone because they were not allowed visitors. People lost their jobs and were kicked out of the military because they refused to get vaxed. Children, who were already struggling academically, fell further behind. People were fed out right lies when the president said if you get the shot you won't get Covid and if you get the shot you won't spread Covid. People, including qualified scientist, were banned from social medial for spreading misinformation which turned out to be true. This is a threat to the First Amendment over a misunderstood virus which will cause people to mistrust the government if and when the next pandemic comes along. Those who were in charge have yet to come forth and admit they were wrong on so many issues while many others continue to defend the lies. Finally they have yet to determine from where the virus originated.

Free trade

In 1962 Noble economist Milton Friedman made the case for free trade as the best and fastest path the prosperity. His arguments were sound an unassailable and stood the test of time. However certain countries began to use import taxes to protect their local industries and this opened the door for other measures to distort the market. China is the prime offender. They used currency manipulation, government subsidies and import taxes to benefit China at the expense of its trading partners. The trade deficit between China and the US started small at $6 billion in 1985 and grew to $370 billion in 2023. When China was allowed into the WTO in 2002 they agreed to follow the rules of the organization but they quickly ignored those rules. The result is they had spectacular growth for more than 40 years and became the manufacturers of the world. When Trump ran for office in 2015 he pointed out the ways in which China was breaking the rules and promised to place import taxes on China if elected. In August of 2019 Trump imposed a 10% tariff on $300 billion of Chinese imports. Biden roundly criticized Trump for these tariffs but he later kept them and added to them. This was in line with Trumps MAGA and Biden's America First plans. Trump spearheaded the reshoring of American industry which is now in full swing and getting stronger. This will result in a rapid expansion of US industrial growth bringing with it many good paying manufacturing jobs.

Election

Zelensky: Trump doesn’t know how to end war and Vance is too radical. The president of Ukraine criticizes the Republican nominees as he visits the US to share his plan for victory over Russia. Some are asking if this is foreign interference in our election. Add to that the fact that Iran is hacking the Trump campaign and sending information to the press.

Border bill

There is a controversy around the immigration bill that Trump encouraged congress to vote against. The main area of concerned is the number of migrants that would be allowed in. After negotiators conferred with the Border Patrol and officials at the Department of Homeland Security, they crafted the legislation to give DHS the authority to close the border if they reached a seven-day average of 4,000 or more border encounters. A seven-day average of 5,000 or more would mandate a border closure. If the number exceeded 8,500 in a single day, there would also be a mandatory border closure. There was one part of the bill that did not get much attention and that is a carve out for children There are exceptions, including for unaccompanied children and any unauthorized immigrant that Border Patrol agents believe should be excused for humanitarian or other reasons. This was seen by many as an open invitation to children to come across the border. There are already 325,000 children unaccounted for and this would lead to more children being put in danger. The $118 billion dollar bill contained only $20 billion for the southern border. The rest went to Ukraine and Gaza.

Healthcare

Most European countries have national healthcare meaning all citizens are covered under a government program. In the US half are covered by Medicare and Medicaid, 42% are covered by private healthcare and 8% do not have insurance. There are serious cost problems in both. Long waiting times are plaguing England. The population is aging but more so in Europe. Healthcare cost for the elderly will be increasing rapidly both in North America and Europe.

Preemies

Ethics groups suggest that preemies after 22 weeks not be given special care but allowed to die since the survival rate is only one percent. Some babies survive after a botched abortion and they also are allowed to die. The question is just how do they die. Since no direct action is taken to kill them are they just allowed to lie there until they die. Does the baby suffer during this time. We analyzed prospectively collected data on 6075 deaths among 22,248 live births, with gestational ages of 22 0/7 to 28 6/7 weeks, among infants born in study hospitals within the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Neonatal Research Network. Deaths related to pulmonary causes, immaturity, infection, and central nervous system injury decreased, while necrotizing enterocolitis–related deaths increased. In end of life cases people are allowed to die but they are kept comfortable and pain free.

Election

Voters often complain that politicians make promises but do not give details. Trump has said he will get the economy going and here is how. He will max out the US production of fossil fuels to make the country energy independent and lower the cost of energy which will lead to lower transportation cost which will lower the cost of most goods. It will lower the cost of utilities including heating and electricity. He will reduce regulations and place import taxes on Chinese goods. He will lower the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% on companies that manufacture goods in the USA. All of these things will encourage the reshoring of industry which means shorter supply lines which means lower cost. Trump has said he will secure the border and he will do that the same way he did before. He will demand that Mexico close its border with Guatemala by threatening to tax their imports. He will renew the remain in Mexico policy which means that migrants wait in Mexico while their status is confirmed. He will stop catch and release and build the wall. These are the two top issues in the election.

Inflation

As the 2020 election came on the scene both Trump and Biden promised to buy votes and that resulted in each candidate sending out a trillion dollars in fun money. Most people remember the $1,400 check they got as they wondered why they got it. This was followed up with married couples getting $2,400 plus $500 for each child. The result was inflation.

Education

As globalization comes to an end it will have profound effects on all areas of life. One area not often considered is education. The country will be doubling its industrial base over the next ten years and this means a lot of blue collar jobs. Most of the baby boomer went through the last great expansion of industrial jobs so they were mostly blue collar people but they wanted their kids to go to college so they could have white collar jobs. Thus the great push for everyone to go to college and this resulted in a glut of college graduates who could not find jobs that would pay for their student loans. The education system must now gear up for training for blue collar jobs. This new economy is already upon us as many trades people can make more money than many Liberal Arts grads without wasting four years in college. This requires a massive shift from college to tech training schools and the universities haven't yet figured this out. Not only will trades people be needed to build the new factories the need for high school grads to work in the factories will be necessary. Unless you are going to college to study STEM, business or in healthcare you should be prepared to struggle to find a job that will pay your bills. If your parents have money you can have the luxury of studying what ever you want otherwise beware.

Workers

The term working people is often used to describe an amorphous group without clearly defining that group. I suggest these are people who are paid by the hour as opposed to salaried employees. The CEO never makes $5,000 per hour but rather $1 million dollars per year. It is the working people who bore the brunt of globalization as their jobs were the ones being sent overseas while the salaried group saw their wages and net worth increase. Salaried employees are not all executive types and many have ordinary jobs. The question is who and why did people vote for Trump and the answer can be found in the working class. Here is an example. Joe has been a high school teacher for 20 years. Every day Joe goes to work in rather pleasant surroundings. It is warm in the winter and cool in the summer. Joe has a pension, health insurance, life insurance, disability insurance, vacation, holidays and personal days off. Every year Joe watches his mortgage go down and his pension going up. Joe is satisfied with the status quo and votes for Hillary. Jim worked at Bethlehem Steel for 20 years. He had all the same benefits that Joe had with a higher salary. About 40 years ago China started producing steel and by using government subsidies, flooded the market with steel at below production cost and many steel companies went out of business including Bethlehem. Jim then went to work at a job with lower pay and fewer benefits. Jim's wife went to work to make up some of the loss. Every four years some politician would come along and promise Jim he would help. After about 8 elections along came Trump and Jim said I will give him a try and low an behold Jim's real wages increased for the first time in 40 years. Jim voted again for Trump in 2020 and will do so in 2024. Jim doesn't care if Trump is not politically correct or if Trump says mean things or if Trump lies. Jim is only interested in being in a position to pay his light bill.

Taxes

In August of 2022 the Inflation Reduction Act was passed and it included $80 billion in additional funding for the IRS. Here is a statement from the government on September of 2024, two years after the passage. U.S. Department of the Treasury, IRS announce $1.3 billion recovered from high-income, high-wealth individuals under Inflation Reduction Act initiatives This is the low hanging fruit so they have a ways to go to get a decent return on their investment. Now they can go after the big money which comes from false claims of children to collect on the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) or the child tax credit which between the two amounted to $20 billion last year.

Generals

In 2014 while Syria was busy with a civil war the Islamic State (ISIS) came to power and gained global prominence in 2014, when their militants successfully captured large territories in northwestern Iraq and eastern Syria, taking advantage of the ongoing civil war in Syria. When Trump came into office in 2017 he instructed the military to do what ever was necessary to destroy ISIS. When the military is left to the generals instead of being run by Washington bureaucrats it can be very effective. The scourge of ISIS which had be growing and promoting terrorist activities for four years was completely dismantled in 6 months.

Inflation

The coming inflation battle. In the coming years the US will continue down the path of reshoring and this will lead to the doubling of the industrial base over the next ten years. This means many new high paying union jobs that will lead to wage/price inflation. On the other side and this is particularly so if Trump is elected the country will expand the fossil fuel production to the max to hold down energy prices which in turn holds down the prices of most other good. In addition as the jobs come home the supply chains are more secure and transportation costs are lower which tend so lower prices. The country will move away from the new green deal and direct its efforts toward nuclear power. This will lead to lower energy cost in the long run. As the new plants are built they will use the latest technology and thus increase efficiency which means increased productivity which offsets inflation. The first ten years will mean inflation of 5 to 10% per year but after that the productivity will begin to lower inflation. The future looks bright for young people just coming into the work market.

Business

Looking at the two candidate while removing politics from the center of the equation opens the door to new and different evaluation of the two. Trump has provided jobs to millions around the globe with his iconic towers Starting with his 12 major sky scrapers in NY City he has built towers around the world in Panama, Dubai, Mumbai, Las Vegas and Los Angeles. Add to that numerous golf courses plus the 30,000 employees who work for Trump companies. His first foray into politics landed him in the White House. Harris was a US senator for four years and a VP for four years. She was never in private business and created zero jobs. She like many politician has never had to meet a payroll. Most have little understanding of the economics of business as they are basically bureaucrats. This explains why Trump seems so out of step with politicians. He is on the outside looking in when it comes to the Washington establishment and they are concerned that he will change the status quo.

Mexico

When President Clinton negotiated NAFTA it allowed US manufacturing jobs to go to Mexico which was just a continuation of the deglobalization of US jobs going to China. It was not a good deal for American factory workers but it was a bonanza for large corporations in particular the auto industry. According to the Economic Policy Institute, these investor protections facilitated the movement of manufacturing plants to Mexico. Fifteen percent of employers in manufacturing, communication, and wholesale/distribution shut down or relocated plants due to union organizing drives since NAFTA's implementation. Recall how Ross Perot described NAFTA as a giant sucking sound referring to the manufacturing jobs going to Mexico. Trump replaced NAFTA with the United States Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA) and this brought manufacturing jobs back home. This set the stage for the reshoring of jobs to America. The US is now in a position to rebuild its industrial base while Mexico takes over the less skilled jobs to help North America to lead the world into the de globalized era. US companies will select the jobs needing the highest skills to remain in the US and then ship the lesser skilled jobs to Mexico. This is because the US would have a shortage of workers but Mexico can take up the slack. This was one more way the Trump early on recognized the problems with the global economy.

Brazil

The First Amendment right to free speech is unique to the US constitution as evidenced by the current battle between Twitter (X) and Brazil. Brazil's courts have ruled that lying is not allowed in the public media and they demanded that all social media companies cleanse their site of all lies. Everyone platform capitulated to Brazil's request but Musk and so X is banned in Brazil. There is no discussion about who decides what a lie is but many people on X were criticizing the government and that may have something to do with the action taken.

Oil

The oil business started in Mexico shortly after oil was discovered in the US during the mid 19th century. It was private companies that developed the business and like the Middle East the government nationalized the business in 1938 and all private companies left. Most of the oil was exported but in time Mexico developed an industrial economy and needed refined product like gasoline and diesel. They imported these from the US but a new president who was anti American decided to build a refinery so Mexico could make their own gasoline. Time passed and soon the oil began to run out and now the refinery had to look elsewhere for oil. The US shale oil is light sweet and could not be used by the Mexico refinery so they had to look to the Middle East for oil. In the near future their oil supply will die out and they will be importing oil to make their own gasoline. This is another example of the ineffective business practice of government. They never looked long term to recognize that their original oil source would run out. Even today they do not have the technical know how to look for new wells.

Jones Act

As the country marches on toward reshoring there are regulations and laws that could be changed to make this transition more efficient. One of the lesser known rules is what is commonly called the Jones Act. The Merchant Marine Act of 1920. This Act was designed to restrict shipping to vessels that are US built, owned, flagged and staffed. The original purpose was to maintain US ship building capacity but that is no longer needed as ship building is both a private and public business. When foreign ships arrive at US ports they must transfer cargo to US ships before it can move to other location. This is time consumer and inefficient and adds cost to shipping.

Transmission

Mark Twain said, the more I know about people, the better I like my dog. That is the way I feel about climate change. The more I know about wind and solar, the better I like my nuclear. Just take one aspect and that is getting the power from the source to the use point. The best wind is in the Midwest basically from Texas north to the Dakotas. The use point is the megacities in the northeast. This means 2,000 miles of transmission lines. The best sun is in the southwest and the use points are the west coast cities. This is 1,000 miles of transmission lines. Small nuclear reactors are placed near the use point eliminating the need for transmission lines

Abortion

The abortion issue was supposed to be at the top of the list for the upcoming election but it has not worked out that way and the problem is that Trump's stand on the issue is more acceptable that Harris. Trump says abortions should be legal up to 15 weeks with exceptions for rape, incest and life of the mother. This is position is a compromise between no abortion and abortions at any time. The Harris position allows abortion at any time which means late term and on rare occasion disposing of baby born alive after a botch abortion. What else can be done with a baby that has been mutilated in attempt to kill. Most people find late term abortions distasteful at best and disgusting to the point of getting sick over the thought. This issue will not be as important as originally thought.

China

From 1960 to 1962, just two short years, 30 million people died of starvation in Mao's China, the worst famine in recorded history. Fast forward to 1979 and China was once again facing the problem of too many people and not enough food. In the early 1970's the government could foresee this problem and started a program called Long, Last and Few which said the women should get married later and have longer times between children. It was successful as fertility rates declined from 5.7 in 1969 to 2.7 in 1978 but it was not enough. So in 1980 China started the one child policy. If you followed the policy the government would pay for your child's college and offer you interest free loans. For those who did not follow the policy the government used forced sterilization and abortion. By 2015 the fertility rate dropped to 1.6 and the plan was working. This led to two undesirable results. First there are far too few young people to support far too many old people and second there are too many men and too few women since male babies were preferred over female babies. The lesson here is that communist countries give too much power to the government and the government seems to not understand the old adage, the unintended consequences of good intentions. It is hard to understand that the government did not realize what such policies would bring. China today is in dire straights for a number of reasons, not the least of which, is demographic. This is mindful of Reagan's warning statement, “The nine most terrifying words in the English language are ‘I’m from the government and I’m here to help.’

Oil

The history of oil is primarily a history of US oil. Oil was first discovered in Pennsylvania and soon most of the oil used around the world was coming from the US. After WW 2 the demand for oil exceeded supply and the US began to look for foreign supplies. When oil was discovered in the Middle East it was American engineers that built up the oil fields. Prior to that these countries were poor tribesman wandering across vast desert areas. In 1960 five major oil producing countries banded together and formed OPEC and ten years later they nationalized most of the oil business. In 1972 these countries got together and curtailed oil exports to the US in response to the 1967 Israeli War. This was a wake up call to the West. The US began a rapid expansion of the oil industry and through the 1980's oil prices declined as production increased. Falling prices caused the Soviet Union to suffer economically to the point where it was a significant part of the collapse of the country. This was followed by the era of globalization which caused economic growth across the globe and demand for oil rose causing prices to rise from $35 per barrel to over $100. Soon US oil production was outpaced by Saudi Arabia and Russia until 2008 when shale oil came on the scene and in a few short years the US once again became the world's leading oil producer where it remains today.

Prices

Bringing down inflation does not mean prices are coming down. It means they are rising at a slower rate. The way to bring prices down is to reduce the cost of production. The prices of some products move fast while others are slow to move. In economics, price sensitivity is described in terms of elasticity of demand. The price of gasoline is inelastic because people must buy it even if the price goes up. The price of chocolate is elastic because as the price goes up people buy less of it. The rules of supply and demand apply best to elastic demand. The biggest cause of gas prices is oil prices. When the raw materials needed to produce a product become less expensive the finished price goes down in price and this includes the cost of transportation. The obvious step to lower prices is to expand fossil fuel production to the max. This means lower gasoline prices, lower home heating prices and lower electric bills. It also means lower food cost, lower travel cost and host of other areas. Governments can help by reducing spending which fights inflation and lowering interest rates. This helps people with credit card debt and with new purchases like cars and homes.

Russia

A panel discussion on world affairs came to the conclusion that the Ukraine War will end in 2032 when Russia runs out of soldiers. They left the impression that it would just fizzle out something like Afghanistan. They must have forgotten the original reason for going to war. Recall the theory was that if the West didn't stop Putin he would keep going but if Russia were to lose they would resort to nukes but this was not brought up.

Unions

A controversy has been brewing over union votes. The teamsters decided not to endorse Trump even though the rank and file prefer Trump. During a voting window from July 24-Sept. 15, rank-and-file Teamsters voted 59.6 percent for the union to endorse Trump, compared to 34 percent for Harris The reason that many union member prefer Trump is that he is opposed to the new green deal which will destroy many union jobs and Trump is for ending globalization which will create new union jobs. That is the reason Trump won in 2016 and these members are still Trumpers. He lost in 2020 because of ballot harvesting and the same thing may happen this year. The leadership did not endorse Trump because they don't want to endanger the relationship they have with the democratic party. It is much like a congressman who feels one way about an issue and his constituents feel another way.

Voting

Absentee voting begins in MN on Sept 20. You can request a ballot on line or pick one up at City Hall or the County building. You can mail the ballot or drop it off at a drop box. Early voting begins on October 18 at City hall or the County building. Some have asked what happens to my vote if the candidate dies before the election. It is difficult to research but if a candidate dies after the nominating process is complete but before the election, the party selects a new candidate in which case the voter could vote again assuming there is enough time. So if Biden dies before the election the party will select their candidate.

China

The world is watching as China comes apart at the seams. The same draw of low wages that brought in many businesses is now feeling the sting of low wages from other countries in Southeast Asia. Countries like Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia now have lower wages than China and companies are exiting China. Adding to the problem is the fact that Western countries led by the US are reshoring. Thirty trillion dollars in infrastructure financed mostly by Western countries is being abandoned as globalization comes to an end. China must import most of its food and energy and is hurt more than any country by de globalization. Adding to their woes is a shortage of working age people. This is the group that not only does the work but are the consumers. China does not have a consumer based economy like the US but they have an investment based economy. Over the past 20 years they have build many government financed projects just to be building. Many of these are wasteful. A prime example is housing where they have 75 million empty homes and apartments. The have built entire cities that stand empty and these are major cities not towns. This is all further exasperated by the loss in population that happened over the past 60 years as people moved from the country into the cities. When you do that you have fewer children and add to that the one child policy instigated in 1980 and you have a demographic catastrophe. The world is witnessing the beginning of the end as young people are taking to the streets to protest. Will there be another Tiananmen Square as happened in 1989.

Night TV

The late night shows on ABC, CBS and NBC are all losing viewers. The reason is that more people are watching pod casts but that is not quite right. Greg Gutfeld is a new comer to late night having started just nine years ago and he now has the largest late night audience. He lambastes everyone and every group and is totally politically incorrect. The other net works spent years leaning to the left and going after Trump not considering the fact that half the people voted for Trump. Good business tells you that you cannot insult your customers and not expect to lose some. The networks have yet to understand what is happening. Here is a news item. The networks have finally begun admitting that it is no longer what it used to be. The question is: What can it evolve into that takes into account both economic realities and the cold hard fact that viewers are no longer as engaged by broadcast TV as they used to be?

Trump

The top reasons to vote for Trump. He will secure the border He will reach a peace agreement to end the Ukraine War He will end the new green deal and open the way for nuclear power He will restart the Abraham Accords He will reinstate the sanctions on Iran He will continue the reshoring of US businesses to American shores He will renew the Trump tax cuts He will end taxing social security and TIPS He will max out fossil fuel production He will not cancel student debt

Saudi oil

Why the Abraham Accords were so valuable. Back in the 1970's the US developed the oil fields in Saudi Arabia. At that time the US agreed to offer military protection to the Saudis in return for a promise that they would only sell oil in dollars and that beget the petrodollar. This in effect made the US dollar the world currency which it still is today. The Abraham Accords set up during the Trump administration promise a renewal of this agreement even though the US was no longer dependent on Saudi oil. Part of maintaining US protection was a reconciliation between the Saudis and Israel and as this came close to happening, Iran a country with designs on Saudi oil panicked, and instigated the Hamas attack on Israel. Now Saudi is left vulnerable to attack by Iran. The US needs to quickly restart the Abraham Accords and once again off Saudi protection in return for a peace agreement with Israel. This would add Saudi Arabia to Egypt, Jordan along with UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan as a partnership opposing Iran. Then the US could reinstate the sanctions that Trump placed on Iran and that would be a major step toward getting rid of Hamas which could then lead to a two state agreement in the Middle East ending a dispute that started in 1948.

Home cost

VP Harris has proposed giving $25,000 toward the down payment on a house for first time home buyers. While this can help middle income people, the low income group will not benefit because they cannot qualify for a mortgage. Even a starter home costs more than $200,000 and the down payment required for a FHA loan is 3.5%, assuming a good credit score, and most low income people do not have $7,000 to put down. In the long run this will hurt all low income people because it will just drive up the cost of homes like most government give away programs. Mortgage loan rates have increased from 2% to 7% in the past four years and that has kept middle income groups from buying a home while the increase in home cost have kept low income groups out of the market.

Tax credits

There is a difference between a tax deduction and a refundable tax credit. In order to take advantage of a tax deduction you must owe taxes and this eliminate the lowest one half of wage earners because they pay no income tax. If you want to help the low income group the child tax credit it the way to go. If the credit is $2,000 per child and this low income family has two children the government sends them a check for $4,000. This credit is not only available to low income families but to families earning up to $400,000 per year. The key word is refundable as some tax credits are not refundable and the recipients must owe tax before they are eligible for the credit. This is a good way to narrow the wealth gap.

SS tax

Not taxing social security benefits would be of great help to retirees who have pensions. For example John and Mary Smith are both age 65 and collecting SS. John gets $2,400 per month from SS and has a pension of $2,000 while Mary gets $1,200 from SS and has a $800 pension. Under current law they will pay $1,584 in federal income taxes. Remove tax on SS and they own no tax. To help narrow the wealth gap such a plan should be limited to people whose income, not counting SS, is less than $100,000 for singles and $200,000 for married.

Abortion

For many people having a medical abortion at home is much like having what is commonly called a miscarriage. The remains are flushed down the toilet. Most medical abortions happen in the first 9 weeks. There is no obligation to dispose of the remains in any particular way. Many who oppose abortion object to terms like "remains" saying it is the same way they get rid of a child's dead pet fish. Some dispose of the remains the way they normally dispose of sanitary waste. Just as the number of medical abortions is increasing each year, currently at 65%, the number of self managed abortions is increasing currently at seven percent. Self-managed abortion, also referred to as self-induced, self-sourced, self-administered, self-care, or, colloquially, “DIY” abortion, can be defined as any action a person takes to end a pregnancy without clinical supervision or support Today most people are accepting of medical abortions because 85% of the time the cause is that the woman is either financially or emotionally unable to deal with a baby. In time the reasons for abortions will expand. In many places that is already happening with Down's babies being aborted and in England where 90% of Down's babies are aborted. Other areas of concern are gender based. There are seven states where sex selective abortions are allowed and most of the time the male is selected. As medical knowledge of fetal development expands will this lead to more abortions even to the extremes of eye color and height or down the path of what are called designer babies.

Martial law

The president does not need a formal proclamation to declare martial law. He merely says it is now in force. He does not need permission from anyone including congress. Martial law suspends all existing laws, as well as civil authority and the administration of justice. It substitutes military authority for civilian rule. President Trump is regularly accused of ending democracy. If it was his plan to end democracy why didn't he declare martial law on January 6, 2021. The president is commander in chief of the military. Under martial law the president becomes a dictator.

Election

There are a number of strange things about the upcoming election and one has to do with how people see their choices. There are about 20% of people who vote for the party regardless of who the candidates are. In normal elections others will look over the issues that are important to them and then compare candidates to see who best fits their priorities. This year there will be many voters who see only one candidate and that is Trump. They will either vote for Trump or against Trump and they have very little concern as to the other candidates. Many of these voters have little knowledge about the issues or the candidates position on the issues.

Not important

As we move closer to the election it is interesting to note what are not considered important issues. This year the interest on the debt crossed the one trillion dollar line and now surpasses defense spending. It is obvious that the national debt is no longer a concern of those in the press since they have asked no questions. Both sides have increased coal, oil and natural to maximum outputs which means the most existential threat to the world, climate change, is no longer worth mentioning. It means the four dollar gas is now a bigger threat. It is well known that the press thrives on controversy and since both sided are aligned on these two issues there is no interest. The press is not concerned on how these issues many effect the country but only in the fact that they are not controversial.

Foreign policy

While foreign policy is not usually a big issue in presidential elections, it must be considered. Trump will reinstate the sanctions on Iran. He will back Israel to the fullest. He will initiate a peaceful settlement to the Ukraine War. He will continue the import taxes on China and Europe. He will continue to export fossil fuels and continue construction of liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities. He will expand and improve his popular US Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA) to aid in the process of reshoring manufacturing. He will restart the Keystone pipeline with Canada. He will challenge world organizations like the UN, WTO, WHO and NATO to pay their fair share. He will encourage European Union Countries to build up their military so the US can close some bases and bring home the troops. He will push to end globalization. He will not join the Paris Accords or the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP). He will not get involved in wars for the sake of democratization

Economy

Beginning in the early 70's the US began to lose its industrial base to foreign competitors and this accelerated in 2001 when China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO). As manufacturing moved overseas millions of industrial jobs were lost and it was most notable in the Rust Belt. Using low cost foreign labor US companies reaped huge profits. At the same time that US companies were subjected to strict environmental regulations China was using child and slave labor with little concern for the safety of workers. This is still going on as the US reduces the number of coal fired power plants and China keeps building new plants. This unfair playing field was noticed by Trump and he brought these disparities into the public view. The Covid further exposed the unfairness and the country quickly had a change of attitude. The increased cost of transportation awakened industry leaders to the opportunities of bringing jobs back home. Trumps cry of make America great was a wake up call and this was followed by Biden's call for American jobs. Trump's import taxes were followed and increased by Biden. This lead to the congress approving an infrastructure bill and combined with the Chips Act added to the movement. The US has embarked upon an economic expansion not seen since the 50's and over the next ten years the country will double its industrial base creating millions of blue collar high paying union jobs. Inflation will rise but the famous American middle income groups will rise like the phoenix. The courts offered additional help by rejecting the 40 year old Chevron case effectively reducing the power of government agencies like the EPA and OSHA. Happy days are coming for the working people as these new jobs come home. If Trump is reelected he will start the next great change as he ends the emphasis on wind and solar and begins the expansion for nuclear. This means the US will lead the word in solving the problem of climate change.

Debt

If anyone in government is interested, realizing that it took many years to build up the debt and understanding that will take many years to bring down the debt, it begins to look possible. In 1945 the debt which was run up because of war, the only legitimate reason for debt, was $200 billion and today it is $35,000 billion. The average inflation rate during those years was three percent. If government had grown at three percent the debt today would be $1,800 billion but the government actually grew at 7%. The long term solution to the debt is to hold spending to one percent less than the inflation rate. If the government had held spending to 6% instead of 7%, today's debt would be $15,000 billion or $20,000 billion less. Looking at a $35,000 billion debt is overwhelming but attacking it one year at a time seems more doable. The longest journey begins with the first step. The government can keep increasing spending but holding that to one percent less than the inflation rate what ever that might be but each year the debt will go down in terms of real dollars. For example the current budget is $6.3 trillion. and the current inflation rate is 3%. If the government increases spending by 2% over the next 75 years and the average inflation rate stays at 3% the budget will be 27.8 trillion. Today's GDP is 28.7 trillion and if that increases by 3% in 75 years it will be $263 trillion and if 30% of that goes to taxes that will equal $79 trillion which means the debt could be paid of in less than 75 years. The point is to use a long period of time to solve a problem that took a long period of time to develop. The congress must hold each years spending to one percent less than the inflation rate. This is not likely but merely a plan to show it can be done within reason. Most working Americans have lived under these conditions for the past 40 years.

Refinaries

Hi tech warfare has taken a giant step forward with the development of the Phoenix Ghost drone. It is small enough to be carried in a soldiers back pack and is assemble in the field. It carries an 8 pound warhead of plastic explosive. It can hover over a target for six hours and has night vision capabilities. It is a suicide drone where the soldier can see the target area and then zoom right in to a critical spot on the target. Such drones were recently used to target a oil refinery in Russia and by hitting a critical spot on a fractionating tower was able to shut down the plant. This could have world wide implications. When a oil refinery is shut down the product backs up in the system and if it is long enough the oil wells in the north must be shut down because there are no storage tanks to accept the over flow. Those wells are located in the permafrost which means that it they stop pumping they may freeze and the water in the system will burst the pipes and the wells would have to be redrilled. The last time this happened it took years and that is when Russia had American and English engineers working on site. This time they are not there and Russian engineers do not have the no how to redrill and restart. This could bring Russian oil exports to a stop and cause the world price to double causing a recession in many countries.

Tariffs

China was allowed into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001 and they immediately began breaking the rules. Their standard procedure was to subsidize an industry and push product onto the world market at less than production cost. This caused the competition to go out of business. A good example is Bethlehem Steel. Trump was the first major US politician to go after China. He pointed out not only did they subsidize but they manipulated the currency, had no protection for the environment and used child and slave labor. In response Trump put import taxes on Chinese goods. Biden followed up with a 100% tariff on EV's, a 50% tariff on solar products and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum. Europe is now considering a tax on Chinese EV's. This may not be necessary as EV's are not selling. This has come as a surprise to auto makers but they should have known these cars would not be popular. It was well known that the charging time was too long, the range too short and the infrastructure was not set up to charge. The price is not the reason why EV's are not selling.

Neo lilberalism

In my formative years, the time from the end of WW 2 until 1970, the economy was based on Keynesian ideas. In good times the government would raise taxes and build up a surplus to be spent when bad times come to shore up the economy. The problem is that in good times the government didn't save for a rainy day but instead used the money for new programs. About the time that I reached mid life a new form of government began to replace Keynesian ideas and it was called neo liberlism. It basically meant free market capitalism without regard to the safety net, deregulation, no tariffs, privatizing public works and reduce spending. It championed globalization and low taxes. While this new idea was trying to gain a foothold the stagflation and recession of the Carter years popped up and that was followed in the late 80's by the S and L crisis. Next came the mortgage crisis of 2008 and this opened the door for some serious changes and along comes Trump. He was not a budget hawk, one of the fundamental parts of neo liberalism, he imposed import taxes on China and was not interested in privatizing business so this upset the status quo. Biden followed Trump with the same approach and today neo liberalism is on the way out. What will replace it is up for grabs but it will be a combination of different types of government with the emphasis on make America great and America first.

War

The US is approaching the next escalation in the war in Ukraine. In April US provided missiles were used by Ukraine to attack Russian forces in Crimea. These missiles have a 200 mile range. Secretary of State Blinken and UK Foreign Secretary Lammy are meeting today in Ukraine to discuss the use of NATO provided longer ranged missiles to attack Russia. These will be able to reach Moscow which is 300 miles. How will Putin respond when missiles start to hit Moscow. The West keeps inching closer to the result they were tying to avoid and that is a nuclear response by Putin. The world needs a statesman to stand up and lead to a peaceful solution. In the US it means someone who will face down the military industrial complex.

War

Most Americans supported the war in Vietnam when it first began but that support faded when troops were sent especially since many of those were draftees. Is it time for the US to forget about the Biden claim of staying as long as it takes. Up until recently both the Ukrainians and Americans wanted to continue the war but much like Vietnam the tide is slowly changing. Here is a quote from the WSJ Two-and-a-half years into the war, with tens of thousands dead and Russia advancing in the east, some Ukrainians are asking a question that had until recently been taboo: Is it time to try to negotiate? Here is a quote from, The Nation, a liberal outlet on June 2024 The narrative of totally unified Ukrainian opinion is premised on polls from the earliest days of the war showing nearly unanimous Ukrainian support for the government and its handling of the war effort. This seeming consensus has steadily eroded since the peak of Ukraine’s battlefield successes in 2022, when 70 percent of survey respondents affirmed that Ukraine “should continue fighting until it wins the war.” That number dropped to 60 percent in the summer of 2023, according to Gallup. Polling since the failure of Ukraine’s 2023 offensive shows that 44 percent of Ukrainians favor entering into talks with Russia and only 48 percent—still a plurality but, notably, no longer a majority—believe Ukraine should fight on. Other recent polling shows that even in Kyiv, where Ukraine’s elite and bureaucracy is concentrated and political investment in the war effort is at its highest, complete confidence in Ukrainian victory is weakening.

Abortion

The abortion issue was supposed to be front center in the upcoming election but it is not working out that way. Polls show that only 17% of people want abortion legal at any time and even fewer 9% want abortion always illegal. This means a large majority 74% want a compromise position and this is where Trump is on the issue. He says abortions should be legal up to 15 weeks with exceptions for rape, incest and life of mother. VP Harris position is abortion at any time. To further calm the waters Trump said he would not sign a federal abortion ban. Most abortions, 85% are because the mother is emotionally or financially unable to deal with a new baby. This type of decision can be made in the first 15 weeks. Abortions late in the second trimester or early in the third are very rare but they do occur. A 22 week old baby is 7 inches long and weighs 11 ozs. At this size the fetus must be removed using a claw like instrument and it is pulled out in pieces which are then reassembled on a nearby table to make sure they got all the parts. The average person witnessing such a procedure would find it revolting. In 2023 about one million abortions were performed and 63% were medical and 37% surgical. Only one percent were late term but that is 10,000. A reasonable argument can be made to justify a late term abortion but it would be a rare situation and would account for only a small percentage of the 10,000.

Shoplifting

Governments often pass laws without anticipating the unintended consequences. Prop 47 passed in California made shoplifting less than $950 a misdemeanor instead of a felony. This in and of itself would have been acceptable to most people but the criminals were not arrested. The crime became so wide spread that the police and the courts were overwhelmed. Police no longer have the time to investigate and when arrest are made prosecutors let it go. What they did not anticipate was a person stealing $900 worth of merchandise and selling it on E Bay and then going back for $900 more. Store employees were told not to interfere as someone could get hurt or it could result in law suits. Local officials advised businesses to invest in private security. This is just one more example of treating the symptoms instead of the cause. All to soon this led to large groups of people going into a store and filling up leaf yard bags full of merchandise and walking out with store employees standing idly by recording the thefts on their phones. This not only resulted in an increase in shoplifting but also in other crimes. It is what some describe as a break down in civilized behavior. Some stores have moved out of certain areas to avoid this situation and this hurts shoppers in those areas who then have to travel to other neighborhoods to buy their goods.

Tax

Throughout the US history the idea of a wealth tax has not been popular. The idea of just going in and confiscating a persons assets seems like stealing to most people but times are changing, The rich have gotten so wealthy that the idea of taxing their wealth is getting more attention. The total wealth of the United States is $269 trillion in assets less $145 trillion in debts leaving a net worth of $123 trillion netr and the top one percent own 40% of this net or $50 trillion. The net worth is growing at 5% per year or for the rich that means they get richer by $2.5 trillion each year. If this money were collected and given to the 150 million wage earners they would each get $16,000 per year. This means the wage earner would have increasing incomes while the rich's assets would remain constant. Over time this would lower the gap.

Wealth gap

At the turn of the century the wealth gap was a problem. Between 1990 and 2000 the top one percent saw their wealth increase by 300% but the bottom 50% saw no increase. The problem has only worsened since then with 2008 mortgage crisis and the Covid adding to the gap. Rich people live off of their investment (wealth) and poor people live off their income (wages). As the top one percent gets richer they have more money to buy assets and the price of asset go up. Assets are things like property and stock. The result is that the country is moving toward an asset economy. It is becoming increasingly difficult for young people to buy a home unless they have rich parents to help them. Not too many years ago a young person could start out and by saving, afford a down payment on a house. Today houses are too costly and as long as the wealth gap continues the prices of assets will continue to rise. There are many changes that could be made to slow down the increases in the wealth but no much is being done. The idea of a wealth tax will gain in popularity as this problem continues to worsen.

CRT

Richard Delgado is an American legal scholar considered to be one of the founders of critical race theory along with Derrick Bell. In 1964 a group met in Madison, WI and came up with the principles of CRT. First and most obviously, CRT is concerned with racism Second the history written by the majority must be rewritten to express the views of the minority Third the focus must be on equality of results not equality of opportunity Fourth that racism can only be addressed when the fundamental structures of society are changed. Some have interpreted this as a desire to over throw the existing structure and replace it with something entirely new

Russia

It is commonly agreed that a good manager will adjust his positions on issues when new information becomes available or what many might call a common sense approach. When Russia invaded Ukraine the West responded quickly and in a united fashion. The impetus was based on the idea that if you didn't stop Russia in Ukraine then Putin would move on to the next country and keep going until he reunited the old Soviet Union. After two plus years into the war it has become obvious that the Russian military is not the formidable force that it was thought to be and in fact it has now been exposed as inept at best. With this new knowledge does the threat that Russia would now attack a NATO country and face the military might of a US led NATO force. If the answer is not likely then is it time to sit down with Putin and negotiate a peace. If the West agrees to let Putin have Crimea and the Donbas territory along with a commitment not to allow Ukraine into NATO then Putin will have a victory and go home as a hero.

War scare

During WW 2 industry was booming making arms but when the war ended the boom ended. The government had used private industry to produce the weapons of war and they made huge profits. Boeing profit margins were over 300% much of which came from cost plus production. Boeing was financed by Chase Bank and both were in danger of taking large losses as production declined. The commercial airline industry had not yet developed enough to keep Boeing from going under. In order to keep the money flowing higher ups in the government led by Truman, Marshall and Forrestal devised a scheme that Russia was going to invade Europe and that the US must continue its military build up. This was a made up threat to get congress to approve money for defense. Here is an excerpt from a book by Frank Kofsky, Harry S. Truman and the War Scare of 1948 reveals how during the first half of 1948, Truman and the two most important members of his cabinet, Marshall and Forrestal, systematically deceived Congress and the public into thinking that the U.S.S.R. was about to launch World War III with an invasion of Western Europe This led to the adoption of NSC 68. National Security Council Paper 68 (NSC-68) was a top-secret report that was presented to President Harry S. Truman in 1950. The report said the US should use political, economic and military means to contain the Soviet threat and the spread of Communism and this was the birth of the infamous military industrial complex that Eisenhower warned about.

Voters

History can go one way or another often times with just a slight shove. If Biden had followed his promise to be a one term president, the democrats would have had a nomination process and a number of governors would be contenders along with Harris. Governors make better presidents because they have been in office where they had to deal with people in the other party. In addition they had to develop administrative skills. There would have been debates where Harris would not have done well because she is too far left but they would find it difficult to replace a Black female. There would be chance that Trump would now be running against someone other than Harris. In the general electorate about 20% of each side is composed of people who vote for the party which means the candidate doesn't matter to them. This group has gotten smaller in recent years. Of the remaining voters in this election where the candidate matters very few are voting for Harris except by default. People are voting for or against Trump. Intellectual decision making has gone out the window and feelings have come in the front door. There are still a hand full of voters who wait until late in the game to decide how they will vote. These are usually people who do not pay much attention to politics. Come October they start looking around and use a combination of thinking and feeling to arrive at a decision and these are the people who determine the outcome. They use their heads to search out what each candidate stands for and after digesting the information the look to their hearts for a final answer. These are the kind of people that would make good candidates.

Energy

Knowledgeable people in the energy industry have moved toward wind and solar in place of nuclear. Their plan is to build 1000 foot tall wind mills in the Great Plains from Texas to North Dakota and build transmission lines to carry that power east to where the population lives. The plan is to build solar farms in the Southwest and send that to the west coast population centers. The two main objections to nuclear have been overcome. The first being safety and the second cost. The remaining objection is that it will take too long to build which is true especially if you don't start. What is not discussed is the politics behind wind and solar and the mining, processing and disposing of the materials needed for wind and solar. It is a slow process but the above scenario is slowly being turned up side down. As people start to better understand what is not being discussed it will open their eyes to the hidden problems of wind and solar and a new understanding of nuclear. By mid century people will look back and realize how much was invested in something that didn't work. They are already realizing the folly of electric cars and the rest will follow in time.

Energy

Knowledgeable people in the energy industry have moved toward wind and solar in place of nuclear. Their plan is to build 1000 foot tall wind mills in the Great Plains from Texas to North Dakota and build transmission lines to carry that power east to where the population lives. The plan is to build solar farms in the Southwest and send that to the west coast population centers. The two main objections to nuclear have been overcome. The first being safety and the second cost. The remaining objection is that it will take too long to build which is true especially if you don't start. What is not discussed is the politics behind wind and solar and the mining, processing and disposing of the materials needed for wind and solar. It is a slow process but the above scenario is slowly being turned up side down. As people start to better understand what is not being discussed it will open their eyes to the hidden problems of wind and solar and a new understanding of nuclear. By mid century people will look back and realize how much was invested in something that didn't work. They are already realizing the folly of electric cars and the rest will follow in time.

Immigration

As the rest of the world goes into an economic downturn because of de globalization the US could capitalize on legal immigration. The US could set up a merit based system like Canada and bring in the skilled workers who will be losing their jobs throughout Europe and Asia. The US has been accepting an average of one million legal immigrants per year for many years but that number could easily be 2 or even three million. This would mean curtailing the illegal crossing and replacing these people with legal immigrants. The US will be doubling its industrial base over the next five years and will need many new people to sustain that kind of growth. As the Chinese economy slowly crumbles the US will have to begin to manufacture the many goods that are now imported from China and the need for workers will expand rapidly. The hope is that China's decline will be slow enough to allow the US to ramp up in time.

Bill

In November 2021 the bipartisan Infrastructure Bill was passed. It authorized $1.2 trillion for improvements in existing structures with $550 billion going toward new programs. The congress had tried for years to pass such a bill and this was the crowing achievement of the Biden administration. It is one thing to allocate funds but another to actually spend the funds. There is the government red tape much of which centers around environmental concerns. As of May 2024 17% of the money has been assigned to projects. Axios a liberal publications says, Spending President Biden's trillion dollars on U.S. projects before November is turning out to be a nearly impossible task. This is not limited to the Infrastructure Bill as the same thing is happening to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the CHIPS Bill. Sometimes this can be helpful as in the case of charging stations. $7.5 billion was set aside to build charging stations for EV's but only seven have been built and reports say that three of those are not working. This will not pose a problem as EV sales have slowed considerable. The question is what will happen to this money. The $280 billion dollar CHIPS Act passed in August 2022 has been more successful as it just hands out money to private companies. So far $30 billion has gone to Intel, Micron, Global Foundries, Polar, Samsung, BAE and Microchip. Hopefully this money will encourage these companies to expand their facilities and create new jobs in America which will further the trend toward reshoring.

Thorium part two

The space needed for wind farms and solar fields is very large and most times far from the point of use meaning long transmission line. A one gigawatt nuclear power plant takes up 500 acres of land while the same power for solar panels requires 100,000 acres and for wind 12 million acres. Thorium molten salt reactors would use only 100 acres. One hundred megawatt thorium reactors can be manufactured on an assembly line basis and shipped to the use point by semi truck. Ten of these will equal a one gigawatt uranium plant. The same company will manufacture the reactors and generators and install them at the use point. This company will then operate the units and sell the power to the end user. This could be a city or a large manufacturing facility. This eliminates the need for transmission lines and since the reactor needs no water it can operate any where. It could be set up in the desert near the ocean to desalt sea water and grow crops in arid areas. It could be set up near any water supply to break down water in to oxygen and hydrogen to make hydrogen fuel for transportation. Hydrogen could also be used to combine with CO2 extracted from the air to make synthetic diesel and jet fuel. Thorium reactors can be a source of important medical chemicals like Acitnium 225 and Lead 212 and Bismuth 213 used in cancer treatment. Unlike uranium plants, thorium plants do not have to shut down for refueling every two years since fuel is continuously added. For many the fact that thorium plants do not produce bomb material is a plus. It would take 40,000 one hundred megawatt thorium reactors to produce the electricity needed by the US today and 10,000 more over the next 20 years.

Russia

The world needs to pay more attention to Russia. The demographics in Russia are much like many other countries in that their population has declined to the point that it cannot replace itself. Many of these same countries including Russia are not interested in immigrants as the local people see them as unwanted foreigners. The long term result is that by the end of this century Russia will no longer be a country unless they decide to bring in immigrants. The population of Russia today is 145 million the same as it was 40 years ago. In contrast during the same time period the US population has grown from 240 million to 340 million. The Russians see the loss of the buffer zone represented by Ukraine as a threat to their existence or in today's jargon an existential threat. If the war turns against them they will react like a cornered animal and as a last recourse bring on the nukes. The West, up to this point, has avoided this possible end by just prolonging the fight. This may go on for many years but at some point if the West keeps adding more and more hi tech weaponry, Russia will lose and then what. The original reason for the war from the standpoint of the West was the fear that Russia will try to recreate the old Soviet Union but the world now sees that Russia's military is no match for the West and the time has come to reach a peaceful settlement. This could save millions of lives and trillions of dollars and have just as good a chance of avoiding nuclear war as dragging out the war.

Trump

People who try to understand Trump too often make the mistake of putting him in the category of politician. He is in fact first and foremost a salesman. He knew from the start that he could not succeed in politics by being a politician so he blazed a new trail. Like sales people he believed that all publicity, good or bad, is good. He said outlandish things and dominated the news almost every day. Next he came along at a time when social media allowed him to by pass the main stream press and so he could vilify them without fear of being shut out. Next he understood that the average person did not think much of the press or politicians and so he went after the press and people liked it. He is the opposite of political correctness at a time when people are fed up with political correctness. He wants to drain the swamp when people are sick and tired of bureaucrats that they see as unelected busy bodies who want to tell other people how they should live. The distrust of government which had been brewing for years came to a head with the 2008 mortgage crisis where people witnessed millions of working people like themselves lose their homes while the bureaucrats bailed out the big banks. He knew the people were upset and he became their voice. At every rally Trump would point to the press and make some derogatory remark and then proceed to blast the Washington establishment as a bunch of elitist who had forgotten about the working people. People instinctively knew what these elitist did not know, that globalization was costing them their good jobs. The final nail in the coffin came when the press started calling Trump supporters cultist. Trump turned the American political system up side down and today the working stiffs are Trumpers.

Russia

The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990 presented the West with an opportunity to bring Russia into the developed world as a legitimate trading partner. Russian natural resources were badly needed by Europe and East Asia. It would have been something along the lines of the Marshall Plan. By offering trade deals along with low interest loans the US along with the European Union could have helped Russia get back on its feet. Today Russia would be aligned with the West, Europe would not be in an energy crisis and the new partnership between Russia and China would not be. The old cold war beliefs prevailed and neo cons tried to destroy the Russian economy. The sad part is if they succeed will someone worse than Putin take control or worse will the country become a fight between war lords who have nuclear weapons at their disposal. The only way to make up for these past mistakes is to negotiate a peace treaty and end the war.

Thorium part one

As the world slowly comes to the realization that wind and solar are not the answer to climate change, all eyes turn toward nuclear, which then begs the question, should the power source be uranium or thorium. Uranium, like most heavy metals has several isotopes but U 235 is the only one that is fissionable. Naturally occurring uranium contains only .7% U 235 so it must be enriched to 3 to 5% before it can be used power plants. To make an efficient bomb requires 90% enrichment. It is faster and easier to go from 5% to 90% than to go from 1% to 5%. Problems arise from the remaining uranium which is bombarded by neutrons during the reaction and changed into undesirable elements which take many years to dissipate. Thorium has only one stable isotope so it needs no enriching. In addition far fewer unwanted materials are produced and at much lower quantities. In addition thorium reactors are able to use up much of the stored waste from uranium reactors. Research on nuclear was conducted at Oakridge Lab at the start using uranium but later scientist discovered that thorium was a better choice. However they were blocked by the US government because thorium reactors could not produce fuel for bombs and that was the main purpose for the project. Thus thorium was put on the back burner only to come alive again in recent years. Thorium has many advantages over uranium. First off it is four times more abundant and found in most places around the world. Second it does not have to be enriched which is both expensive and time consuming. Third it produces far fewer unwanted by products and the ones produced dissipate more rapidly. Forth thorium reactors can use stored waste from uranium reactors as fuel. While uranium reactors have an excellent safety record thorium reactors are much safer. Thorium reactors cannot melt down because new fuel must be constantly added to keep the plant operating and thus if the operator goes home the plant will shut down on what is called walk away safety. Even if the operator wanted to sabotage the reactor by adding too much fuel the reaction would stop when the temperature got above a certain level. As things heat up the atoms spread further apart and the chain reaction stops until things cool down. In addition thorium molten salt reactors operate at normal pressure and do not use water for cooling so there is no danger from a steam explosion. These reactors use a gas like helium or carbon dioxide in the heat ex changers to turn the generators to make the electricity. One final point is that thorium reactors operate at 1,300 degrees F while water cooled uranium reactors run at 600 degrees F. This increases efficiency as the laws of thermodynamics state that heat ex changing is most efficient at higher temperatures.

Nuclear

Things are happening but not in the news President Trump asked his Energy Secretary, Dan Brouillette, to assemble a nuclear energy working group to find ways to expand the U.S. nuclear energy industry in an effort to compete globally. The U.S. Department of Energy, which is leading the national initiative, is on an aggressive timeline—five to seven years—to bring new advanced nuclear reactors for electric power to the international market. President Joe Biden signed legislation Tuesday that aims to deploy advanced nuclear reactors more quickly. The ADVANCE Act, aims to further streamline permitting for new reactor designs, give the Nuclear Regulatory Commission more resources, and promote deployment across the globe.

Russia

In the 2016 presidential election Russia was accused of trying to influence the results by using social media. The government, in a attempt to minimize this, asked social media to limit these ads. This week the Justice Department announced that Russia once again was using social media in a attempt to influence voters. The for mentioned misinformation was record inflation, high food prices, special treatment for minorities, high crime rates in cities and in minority areas. The question now is will the government ask social media not to publish such information and second will they agree to the request.

Postpone

In Trump's NY City trial much was made of the 34 felonies. A felony is a serious criminal offense that typically results in a prison sentence of more than one year. Would this mean 34 years in prison. If he tried a lighter term the people would say that no one is above the law and Trump was given preferential treatment. Trump was supposed to face sentencing next week but the judge postponed the date until after the election. Keeping in mind that the judicial system is not supposed to influenced by politics look at two different interpretations as to why the postponement. The first says that the judge did not want to interfere in the election. (politics). The second was the judge who was seen by many, as biased against Trump, came to understand that sending Trump to jail might just send Trump to the White House. In the past year every time the government ruled against Trump his poll numbers went up. We cannot read the judge's mind but it was probably one of these two or maybe both.

Work

The labor force participation rate is the percentage of a country's working-age population that is employed or actively looking for work. It is the best way to compare jobs year to year. The rate has still not gone back to pre covid times. In 2020 the rate was 63.3% and today it stands at 62.7 The reasons for this are complicated. According to Common Sense Institute, about 7 million men of prime working age are not currently in the workforce in the United States. This is due to a 4.4 percentage point drop in the labor force participation rate (LFPR) for prime-age men over the past 50 years. The current LFPR for prime-age men is 89.7%.  In recent years it has become easier to qualify for social security disability. For example in 1970 1% of the population were on SS disability and in 2022 it was 2.7%. As the population ages many people stay home to take care of ailing parents. As more women entered the work force in recent years they became eligible for benefits. You must pay SS in five of the last ten years to qualify. In spite of this there are several million able bodied men of working age who are not working and there seems to be no reason they are not working. For those who are interested in past years here is a site. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART The reason for the low values before 1975 is the number of women in the work force

War

As globalization comes to an end there is a danger that certain countries will suffer food shortages. These are countries like China that rely heavily on food imports. It will be especially critical to poor African countries many that are already in trouble. Aggravating the situation is the war in Ukraine. This has slowed the exports of agricultural products and important fertilizers like potash, phosphate and nitrogen. The sooner this war ends the quicker these important products can be back on the market. If changes are not made then it will not only be the Ukrainians who are dying but many others in Africa who will not have enough food to survive. North America is self sufficient in food and energy with little need for imports so there will be no direct harm to people in the US

SS

The amount of social security you receive is based on your earnings that are indexed and that figure is call the average indexed monthly earnings (AIME). For example if your earnings in 1995 were $23,901, the average for that year, you would multiply that by the index factor for that year which was 2.5822 and do that for each year you worked. Then add up all the index adjusted values for each year you worked for the 40 years between ages 22 and 62, then subject the lowest five years and divide the result by 35 and that will the benefit you receive full retirement age. Trump has proposed not taxing social security benefits but that needs to be tweaked. Social security benefits are already designed to help low income earners. It can easily be used to narrow the wealth gap. First off all benefits would be tax free but would be reduced by other income. For example if any person has $100,000 of income including social security their benefit should be reduced by ten percent for each additional $10,000 of income so when their total income is $200,000 their SS benefit is zero. Another big way to close the income gap is to reduce the cost of SS for incomes below $100,000 which is currently set at 6.2% of pay. If that were reduced o 4.2% it would mean a $1,000 raise for anyone earning $50,000 per year. In order to make sure their retirement benefit is not reduced the index factors would be adjusted accordingly. Thus people earning less that $100,000 would pay in less but still receive the full benefit.