Thursday, September 26, 2024

China

China's GDP is based on 42% investment and 19% export and whereas the US economy 68% consumption and 10% export. The remaining is government spending. China has kept their country booming by investments in infrastructure for the past 50 years. The Chinese people are not pron to invest in the stock market like the US. China's market is about $10 trillion whereas the US is $55 trillion. In China one of the few areas of personal ownership is a home and that is where the people put their money. They invest in the homes mostly with cash and then with any money left over they invest in apartments. The result is an over abundance of both and this is putting it mildly. Here is a Sept 2023 report from Reuters. Even China's 1.4 billion population can't fill all its vacant homes, former official says The result of this huge over supply is a drop in housing values of 30% over the past five years and this represents the assets of most people and many of these are approaching retirement and these homes represent their pension. This is of concern to the US which is currently in the process of reshoring manufacturing. It takes time to move production from China to the US and if China declines too quickly the US may not be able to rebuild fast enough which will result in shortages which will cause inflation.

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