Wednesday, April 19, 2023

China policy

There are three distinct groups of chips. Some are high end and produced mostly in Taiwan and less so in the US. Middle chips are produced in South Korea, Japan and the US. The low end chips are mostly made in China. Just as important, are the machines that make the chips and these are mostly manufactured in the Netherlands by a company called ASML and these are already prohibited from sales to China. The new Chips Act restricts foreign chip manufacturers from selling chips to China or providing them with the technology to make them. This is a severe blow to China's ability to develop advanced electronic products. In addition the US currently imposes a 25% tax on $250 billion of imports from China and a 7.5% tax on another $112 billion of imports. But most troubling of all to China is the fact that the US is moving away from globalization and bringing manufacturing back home. Meanwhile China is stuck with its own economic problems. The vast real estate developments of the last 20 years have over built and are many buildings sit empty. On top of that China has an extreme shortage of workers. The one thing that can save China is the production of wind mills, solar panels and EV's. China has a lock on the mining of the materials needed and controls most of the processing these materials. If the west moved toward nuclear power this would be the final nail in the coffin for China.

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