Threat

Everyone seems to have a different view as to what are the greatest threats to the country. At different times the president has expressed different threats. His latest is the threat to democracy by MAGA's. Earlier he talked about climate change and white supremacy. In my mind the two biggest threats are income inequality and education gap. This first can be helped by raising the minimum wage, increasing the tax rate on high earners, promoting private unions, paying social security tax on all wages, decreasing social security benefits with upper income groups, increase the child tax credit, increase the earned income tax credit, increase Medicare surtax and getting rid of capital gains tax. The second can be helped by setting up programs that provide transportation to students who want to move from poor inner city schools to the suburban schools. The schools should specialize in the 3 R's with a minimum of extra curricular activities and a rule that if you misbehave you go back to your old school. The students would be chosen by lottery and teachers would line up to teach at such a school.

NIMBY's

The migrant situation in New York City is an example of not in my back yard. It was magnanimous when they announced the sanctuary city status. A sanctuary city is a city whose municipal laws tend to protect undocumented immigrants from deportation or prosecution, despite federal immigration law. Many even quoted the Stature of Liberty, give me your tired and your poor to show how compassionate they were. This was well and good when the migrants were a thousand miles away but when they got closer to home things changed. The mayors of a number of sanctuary cities began to move migrants into other cities (deportation) without asking the permission of these other places. Then they turned to Washington for financial help something they were quiet about when the migrants were far away. It is a lot like rich people who live in gated communities and say we should have fewer Blacks prison. Many of these people have personal body guards.

War

One more step on the road to war was revealed last March with the leak of some Pentagon papers (sound familiar) One document, dated 23 March, refers to the presence of a small number of Western special forces operating inside Ukraine, without specifying their activities or location. The UK has the largest contingent (50), followed by Latvia (37), France (15), the US (14) and the Netherlands (1). This was not widely reported in the news because the media is aligned with the government to proceed with the plan to aid Ukraine. In 1962 US special forces were sent to Vietnam and this was three years before the first combat troops arrived. We just keep standing by and watching but this time the stakes may be much higher.

Credit cards

Investors are often told to avoid tech stuff because things can change overnight and what was a good investment becomes a looser. One area that is currently undergoing change involves credit card transfers. Most credit card card companies charge a fee, usually two or three percent and because of newer faster technology a company called Fincheck is able to transfer funds at a lower cost say one percent. This will move companies to this new system but not for long because the US government has come up with their own transfer system and it is free. Earlier this federal government announced its new money transfer system called FedNow and it came online in July of this year. Experts say that commercial use of FedNow will grow but consumer use will lag. Most people do not even know the credit card is charging business but in time they will discover that cutting out the middle man can lower prices. It will be interesting to watch this development.

President

When it comes to voting for president I look at the individual and thus over the years have voted for 4 republicans, four democrats and 2 independents but there are many others who vote for the party. They stand for the principals of the party (platform) and always vote the straight party ticket. Today polls show that 69% of democrats do not want Biden to run but that means there are 31% who will vote for Biden. These are the party line people. They vote democrat no matter what. There are an equal number of republicans who follow the same path. If the candidate is bad enough these votes will stay home but they will never vote for the opposing party.

Ukraine

At the end of the cold war the United States promised Gorbachev that NATO would not expand eastward. So, on February 9, 1990, at a meeting with Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze, James Baker stated that the United States was striving for a united Germany that would remain "firmly tied to NATO," promising at the same time "iron guarantees that NATO jurisdiction or forces would not move eastward." By 1992 the US had plans to expand NATO and overtime added 18 new members to the original 12 countries. Ten of these members were admitted after Putin came to power in 1999. In a 2007 speech in Munich, Putin expressed Russia's concern about NATO countries surrounding Russia. In 2008 Bush vowed to press for Ukraine and Georgia to be allowed to join NATO. In 2013 President Yanukovych of Ukraine was overthrown because he was going to accept a trade deal with Russian instead of with the European Union. The next year Russia took over Crimea. To better understand the Russian position how would the United States react if Russia started an alliance with Mexico.

Woke

The phrase woke started in the 1940's among Blacks to mean becoming woken up or sensitive to issues of justice. It was a good word and an easy way to point out injustice. This was all well and good but like so many good things in about 2014 the word became politicized and things started to deteriorate. Instead of thinking of people who were woke as people who were concerned about justice the page was turned. The new woke says that if you think different from me on an issue you are not just un woke but you are a bad person and deserve to be punished. So today if someone thinks you are insensitive to some issue you can be ridiculed on social media and even lose your job. It remains mostly liberals who think that way and that is reminiscent of Charles Krauthammer who said that conservatives think liberals are wrong and liberals think conservatives are evil. If you are evil you can be denigrated in any way. You are Hitler. If you say all lives matter or if you say there are only two sexes you are made out to be some kind of Neanderthal and Ivy league Eastern liberals will come after you. The problem with this is that it ends all conversations about controversial issues. You don't have to justify your position with an evil person. You just call them evil and you win. This happens a lot with the word racist.

Medical

In a free market economy like the US has, many new items are made available on a group by group basis. When a new product comes out, often times it is expensive and only a few people can afford it but in time as more and more of the product is produced the cost per unit comes down and this opens the door to consumers with less income and this process continues and in time almost everyone can afford a big flat screen TV. Because of the understanding of the human genome and the use of AI to analyze the genome, new methods of medical discovery are now available. An individual can have their illness diagnosed by genetic means and a personalized cure made available. This process will be very expensive and only the rich will be able to pay but as more people take advantage of the new technology the price will come down. This is the kind of research that will lead to a cure for cancer as the medical professionals learn about disease from the inside out. In the past doctors have had to rely on averages to treat conditions and the big shortcoming was the cry but doc I'm not like everyone else, I am an individual. The new way will be treating people based on their own DNA and this will allow discoveries that will lead from the individual to the group.

Reindustrialization

As the new world (without globalization) arrives it will bring with it a vast immigration from those countries who are the losers. The countries that cannot feed themselves and rely on imports will suffer the most. It will no longer be inexpensive to travel to a new country so most will be stuck at home. Only the well to do or people with high tech skills will be able to choose their new home and many of these will come to the US from Asia. The US must adjust its immigration rules to accept these people. Lesser educated workers can come from nearby Mexico. While many countries will be deindustrializing because of import export problems the United States will be re-industrializing mostly because of shale oil and gas. The US will be the envy of the world because of cheap energy and lots of it along with a healthy labor force composed of young consumers and of course technology.

Democracy

Governments can be overthrown using a military coup or by keeping one person in power too long. Putin has been in power for 20 years and Xi has just changed the rules so he can stay in power. This cannot happen in the US unless the constitution is changed and this is not easy but it occurred in 1951 when the president was limited to two 4 year terms. It requires a two/thirds vote of both houses to change the constitution. Democrats claim Trump is a threat to the constitution because he is an authoritarian and with a smile said he would like to be president for life which is probably a dream that many presidents had. They claim his attempt to challenge the election what they call an attempt to overthrow the election is a threat to the constitution. Biden claims that Trump is a threat to the constitution because he wants to take the country back to Jim Crow or what Biden called Jim Eagle. The last part hits home to many liberals as they believe as Hillary Clinton said that Trump supporters are deplorables who are racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic and Islamophobic. Absent from all this criticism of Trump is a discussion of his policies which included low inflation, secure borders, low crime and energy independence. The way things stand now is that these same liberals would prefer Biden no matter what his condition. If his condition worsens he will have to once again use the press to elect him as he remains out of sight. The real fear of Trump is his goal to drain the swamp and that threatens the status quo.

China chips

President Biden is often accused by his detractors of being somehow indebted to China. The most common reason given is that his son Hunter received benefits from China and the Chinese government can use that as a bargaining chip to get concessions. This doesn't seem likely based on Biden's behavior toward China. First off, he kept the import taxes on Chinese goods implemented by Trump. Second, Biden signed an executive order prohibiting new US investment in high tech areas in China. Third, he passed the Chips Act which will build chips here to compete against China. Forth, he set export controls banning China from buying advanced chips and equipment that makes chips. Fifth, Biden has ordered that top engineers and executives working for Chinese chip comes to either come home or lose their citizenship. These are the actions of a president who is not concerned about what China thinks but is concerned about America becoming independent in the chip business.

Responsibility

The quote of the day. Democratic Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson's office announced that the city filed the lawsuit against automakers Kia and Hyundai, alleging that both companies have failed to include "industry-standard engine immobilizers" in several models of vehicles, which resulted in a "steep rise" in crime This just opens the door for comparisons with guns killing people. This is the same mayor who excuses massive smash and grab groups as just boys being boys and fails to prosecute them because of the push to have equity in the legal system. This resolves individuals from accepting responsibility for their own behavior and this leads them down the road to prison. This mayor believes he is helping these young men by excusing their actions but in fact he is pointing them in the wrong direction. Accepting responsibility and learning respect for authority is the road to success for these young men.

Economy

The demographics in the United States predicted a labor shortage and Covid encouraged many to take early retirement so the problem is getting worse. In addition the end of globalization is causing a massive increase in construction of facilities to replace imports. These new facilities will provide high paying manufacturing jobs which will put wage pressure on jobs like teachers, nurses, hospitality workers and other places like Walmart and Home Depot. Over the next five or ten years wage/price caused inflation will rise despite efforts by the Fed. All of the new facilities will be using the most advanced technologies which promotes productivity that in the long run will cancel the effects of inflation and the country will settle down to a 1950's style economy where wages increase slightly faster than inflation. These coming years will see the greatest economic growth in the history of the country. During the interim passage to this prosperity, use must be made of the many immigrants who are not able to get work Visa's. The big barrier will be language but companies will have to overcome that through job descriptions and training. Speaking English is less important to a Walmart stocker than an employee who deals directly with the customers. In the meantime learning English should be of the highest priority for all concerned. Legal immigration could dictate that English be a requirement but unfortunately many migrants come here outside the legal system and most cannot speak English.

English

“Immigrants have started more than half (319 of 582, or 55%) of America's startup companies valued at $1 billion or more. “Moreover, nearly two-thirds (64%) of U.S. billion-dollar companies (unicorns) were founded or cofounded by immigrants or the children of immigrants. This shows the value of immigrants but it is somewhat deceiving. These immigrants are the legal ones who come mostly from Asia and have STEM educations not those who come illegally across the border and for the most part cannot speak English. This is just further evidence to promote merit based legal immigration. Under the merit based system immigration status is determined by having usable knowledge and English language skills. Our neighbor to the north Canada uses the merit based system. Canada's Immigration and Refugee Protection Act states as its first objective, “to permit Canada to pursue the maximum social, cultural and economic benefits of immigration.” Canada established its first merit-based point system for selecting foreign workers in 1967. This type of system selects immigrants based on the needs of the country. In 2022 almost one million work Visa's were issued. Many of these were issued to people who have needed skills but cannot speak English. Jobs such as roofers and dry wall hangers can be done without English but jobs working at Walmart or McDonalds are difficult without language skills. The country has millions of illegals and millions of unfilled jobs but the two are incompatible mostly due to language barriers.

Trump

Its looking more and more like Trump will be the republican nominee for president so it's time for an in-debth look at just who is this most controversial figure. He spent his career working in the New York City construction business a place notorious for tough unions, corrupted city inspectors and cut throat competition. He had to be a street fighter to stay in business. He got his start with money from his father but he grew that from millions to billions with ups and downs that would make most people dizzy. When he announced his bid for the presidency in 2015 he was roundly ridiculed by the press but they allowed him on TV and his name recognition grew. As time passed the press began to realize that he might just win so they reversed their strategy and instead of poking fun at him they started with serious criticism. All the while they laughed at him they were enjoying the ratings. Trump was popular because he was entertaining and not like any regular politician. He would also just say what was on his mind regardless of political correctness and many people liked that. He was obnoxious, rude and often insulted people without regards to their feelings. In time he developed into a person that some liked and other didn't like and that remains the case today. There is nothing negative to say about Trump that hasn't already been said many times over. Because he is so straight forward with his comments he is an easy target for ridicule. Add to that his exaggerations and out right lies and he becomes a target easy to insult. Many times his remarks led people to the conclusion that his career was over but he just bounced back. He turned the republican party on its head. The country club republicans that he saw as RINOs left him in droves and others who became never trumpers fought against him. When he criticized the bureaucracy he was threatening the status quo and this scarred many who were comfortable with the way things were. He was an outsider and difficult for the insiders to control. This caused the bureaucrats to plot against him and they are still trying to bring him down. Many see him as a crook and cannot understand why anyone would support him. From a policy standpoint he was a success but that is rarely discussed and the press prefers to talk about his personality. The interesting thing is that the press calls him a threat to democracy so they want to send the leading presidential candidate to prison. Never in history has one man taken so many slings and arrows and the battle in on going.

Money and power

Based on how the news is presented to the American people, one could assume that the divide between the red and blue states is the reason for many of the problems in the country but that is misleading. Over the past forty years both parties have come under the thumb of lobbyist and campaign contributions by pacts. The result is that big oil controls energy, big pharma controls health care, Wall Street controls finance and the military industrial complex controls foreign policy. The voters think they are determining policy but in fact wealthy and powerful groups are running the country. The news people themselves are unknowingly being controlled by the 6 major companies that own 90% of the media. All of these groups come together in what is called the Washington swamp where most everything is decided. As long as the people think it is fighting between republicans and democrats that are the root of our problems the real issues go unnoticed and that is where we are today.

War

As the world moves away from globalization in trade it is time for the US to review its relationships with other world organizations starting with the UN and its independent subsidiaries the IMF and the World Bank. Then throw in the World Health Organization (WHO) and the World Trade Organization (WTO) for good measure. The US pays far more than its fair share to maintain these groups and for the most part the members are anti American. The IMF is a typical example. There are 190 member countries and the US pays for 20% of the total budget. They have $925 billion dollars to hand out and there are 24 members of the executive board who determine where the money goes and I have never heard of any of them. The UN could serve the world today by having a meeting with leaders from Russia and the West and begin talks on ending the war but they sit in silence. Biden could call Putin and start talks on a negotiated settlement but they are also silent. The press has made this idea of talking difficult by saying that talking to Putin means you are a Putin apologist or appeaser. The US still has a hot line between Washington and Moscow and this would be a good time to call. This war has been going on for 18 months and Biden and Putin have not talked even once. The government in conjunction with the defense industry seem uninterested in ending this war.

Wealth gap

Social security was designed to favor low income workers. At age 63 someone with a lifetime earnings of $30,000 per year would receive $900 per month and someone with earnings of $60,000 would get $1,300 per month. The earnings were 100% more but the benefit is only 50% more. This design to offer more to poor is offset by the fact that rich people live longer. A man whose lifetime earnings were $300,000 would get $2,800 per month. His income is ten times higher but his benefit is only three times higher but there is another side to the story. The rich man lives 15 years longer. Conclusions. It's not surprising that those with more wealth tend to live longer than those with less. If you have more money, you probably have access to better health care as well as more nutritious foods. You also have less stress from worrying about money, and stress is a factor in mortality, as well. The rich man lives to age 87 and will collect $806,000 while the poor man who lives to age 72 will collect $97,000. This evens out the design of paying more to low income workers. One way to close the wealth gap is to cut off social security payments for people over a certain lifetime income.

Workers

The US started globalization after WW 2 to fight communism. The US with the worlds largest and best Navy let the world know that the US would protect international global trade for all those countries that were anticommunist. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1990 the need for global protection was no longer necessary and this meant the end of globalization. It started slow but expanded quickly with the nationalistic cry of bring the jobs home. Trump championed this with his MAGA campaign and followed up by reducing regulations on industry, energy independence and putting import taxes on China and Europe. Biden continued the trend and new manufacturing facilities are being built on a record pace across the South. With the new plants here in the US the supply chains are shortened which greatly reduces shipping cost and are less vulnerable to interruptions. The coming years will be the largest industrial expansion the country has ever experienced. The new NAFTA agreement was the frosting on the cake providing the US with reliable young workers in and from Mexico. Joining NAFTA is Japan which will build most of its cars here in the US because of labor shortages in Japan. Other countries short on workers will likely partner with the US by locating plants here and selling to Americans.

Humans

President Kennedy said in his inaugural address, man holds in his hands the power to end all forms of human poverty and all forms of human life. During the Cuban missile crisis the world came close to ending life and since then has made great strides to ending poverty. We are in the same situation today because humans have advanced with technology but human nature is the same as it was thousands of years ago. Instead of setting a goal to end human suffering humans still have the urge to kill and conquer and they are always able to justify wars. Here we go again.

Vietnam

Here is one more example of the power of free market capitalism. After WW 2 Vietnam, like Korea, was a divided country with the communist controlling the North. At the end of the Vietnam War in 1976 the whole country was in shambles with the communist in control. The government then set up the typical five year plan where communist using central planning and the economy sputtered. This was followed by a second five year plan which also failed. The GDP in 1975 was $4 billion dollars and by 1985 had increased to $14 billion. In 1985 the government dissatisfied with the conditions opened the door to a free market society and the GDP exploded to $400 billion in 2020. During those years the poverty level dropped from 70% to 5% as 60 million people were lifted out of poverty. As China's unfair trade practices become known more and more companies are leaving China and going to Vietnam.

War

How long can the pro war factions in the US stand firm. So far not too much politics since the war seems to be popular with both parties. They continue to go through the process of escalating the type and amount of weaponry along with cash and the Abrams tanks and now F-16's are on the way. The one hold back in sending NATO troops but that has been weakened when Poland said they would consider sending troops. A group of Nato countries may be willing to put troops on the ground in Ukraine if member states including the US do not provide tangible security guarantees to Kyiv at the alliance’s summit in Vilnius, the former Nato secretary general Anders Rasmussen has said. If NATO sends in troops will the American people still support the goal of pushing Russia out of Ukraine or will they just say let Russia have it. If not will troop numbers continue to rise followed by dead soldiers coming home in body bags. Is it naive to think that troops would not be used if Russia seems to be winning. Now is the time to think about such things. Is anybody doing that.

Natural gas

Most people are unaware of the uses of natural gas beyond heating and power generation. When natural gas is shipped it is liquefied and in the process it is separated into its different components. Natural gas is 70 to 90 percent methane and that is the part that is used in power generation. The remaining 10 -30 percent is ethane, propane, butane and pentane and all of these are feed stocks for the chemical industry and these lead to hundreds of products. In addition to heating the methane part is used to make ammonia fertilizer which when properly used increases crop production by 40% and allows marginal land to be used.

Ukraine

Polls show that American support for Ukraine is waning. Overall, 55% say the US Congress should not authorize additional funding to support Ukraine vs. 45% who say Congress should authorize such funding. Over $100 billion in equipment has been sent and this will all be replaced by US defense companies. $26 billion of this is financial assistance (cash). This opens the door to corruption. The US is slowly escalating by sending more sophisticated weaponry which requires technicians to train the Ukrainians. The US official policy is that this will continue as long as it takes. It takes to do what, has not been fully explained. For some it means Russia must be driven out of Ukraine. The USSR stayed in Afghanistan for 9 years. Would that be a reasonable answer to the question of how long. It has only been a year and half and a majority of Americans want to stop the funding. Once again the networks are parading retired generals explaining why we must continue the fight. This is very similar to what happened in the early days of the Vietnam War. The military industrial complex is winning again. If the war continues it will split the democratic party just has happened in Vietnam.

KSA

In 1973 the petrodollar agreement was set up between Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and the USA. The Saudi's agreed to only sell oil in dollars and the US agreed to offer military protection to the Saudi's. The relations between the US and KSA are now changing and KSA is joining forces with China to sell oil in Yuan. This means they will lose the US protection and this opens the door for Iran to try to take over the Saudi oil fields. KSA has military equipment from the USA and Iran has equipment from Russia. All of this equipment needs a constant supply of spare parts and the USA will refuse and Russia is unable so both of these countries are going to fight it out without the use of modern war equipment. This will disrupt the oil shipments from the Middle East and will spell disaster for China. China is dependent on imported oil and they currently get 85% of their oil from the Middle East and the rest from Russia and Russian supplies are in jeopardy. China is already suffering from a slow economy, high unemployment, a collapse in the real estate market, businesses from around the world pulling out, lack of young people, and too many retired people. The danger is that China has a one man rule and if he thinks he is losing his power he may resort to attacking Taiwan to divert attention away from the problems at home. The US must quickly start producing high end chips to replace the supply that currently comes from Taiwan.

Germany

Windmills will generate power on average 24% of the time and 42% offshore. The point is that they are most efficient when placed in the right location. In the US that means the Midwestern states which is basically the wheat belt. That means thousands of miles of transmission lines to get to the major use points. 90% of current power plants are located east and south of this area. Solar panels are 20% efficient. They produce power five hours per day but that is in the best locations. The big mega cities along the east coast need lots of electricity but there is little room and not that much sun so the power is made in other locations and sent by the grid to the use point. Since both solar and wind require back up what is the best back up source and that in most locations that means fossil fuel and/or nuclear. Germany did not fully understand these restrictions and got into a mess. They started installing solar panels and later discovered they did not get enough sun to warrant the effort. Just about every place in the continental USA is better suited to solar than Germany. To further show their misunderstanding of the climate problem, Germany closed its last nuclear plant in April of 2023. Germany has been closing its coal plants for decades instead of changing them over to natural gas as was done in the US. This is the results of greens in Germany gaining power and demanding lower green house gas emissions. It was an emotional wave that spread across Germany and resulted in mismanagement. Germany is now reopening some coal plants and postponing the closing of others. The same thing is happening where nuke plants scheduled for closing are remaining online. The Greenies had the best of intentions but they failed to understand the science.

DOJ

The discussion about the debates this AM on CNN and MSNBC centered around the question regarding Trump. The candidates were asked if they would back Trump even if he is found guilty and six of the eight said they would. This was bewildering to the panel because they said the question was based on Trump having been convicted. They argued that if he was just indicted they could understand candidates backing him based on the constitutional stance of innocent until proven guilty. What they fail to understand that many people feel the Justice Department is corrupt and these charges are political and not based on law. A new NBC News poll found that Americans' attitudes toward the Department of Justice and FBI are not positive. Meet the Press says: Meanwhile, 40% of Democrats say they have a negative opinion of the DOJ and 55% of Republicans say the same.

Ballots

Harvesting ballots is still a term unfamiliar to most people but it will be a determining factor in the upcoming presidential election. There are 240 million Americans who are eligible to vote but only 168 million are registered to vote. The ballot harvesters will have a two prong attack. First they will go door to door to get people registered. These people are found by looking at voter registration maps and going to houses and apartments where the others live. Next when the voting period opens they return and bring ballots and help people fill out the ballot. On most ballots there is one box at the top that when checked means a straight party line vote. Herein lies the danger. People could be encouraged to vote for a certain party by the ballot harvester. The are 72 million eligible voters out there just waiting for someone to contact them. The party that has the best ground game to capture these voters will win the election. This is a new process first used by Stacy Abrams in the Georgia gubernatorial election where she brought in 8 million first time voters. It went nation wide in the 2020 presidential election where Biden received 81 million votes the most in US history. Trump was surprised that he did not win because he won in 2016 with 63 million votes and got 74 million in 2020. He, along with the republican party, were not aware of ballot harvesting.

Debates

Debates are on too late at night for me so I just have to read about them. The Hill a left leaning news outlet said the biggest loser was Fox News. 24 million tuned in while the first democratic debate in 2019 only 15 million watched. Two issues that caught my attention were abortion and Ukraine and both fell into the old trap of either or. The abortion issue will not be resolved by people who want no abortions or people who want abortions for any reason. It will have to be a compromise and no abortions after 12 weeks (where 90% of abortions happen) with exceptions for rape and physical life of the mother being a good starting point. In Ukraine the choice between WW 3 and destroying the country of Ukraine could be changed to a negotiated peace agreement where Russia pulls out keeping the Donbas region and the West agrees not to invite Ukraine into NATO. The candidates as a whole agree with Trumps economic policies of low crime, secure border, energy independence and his bring jobs home from China. This is in contrast to the current administration that seems to be interested in bringing jobs home. The questions concentrated on the economy and with the exception of abortion, avoided social and cultural issues. Trump not being there allowed the viewers to get a better understanding of the other candidates.

Inflation

The US central bank can control inflation by adjusting interest rates but not all countries can do that. Because the US has a consumer driven economy raising interest rates causes less consumption because prices are higher. Witness the slow down in housing where the monthly principal and interest payment is now twice what it was three years ago on the same house. Other countries whose economies are not consumer based cannot do this so money from around the world is flowing into the US to capitalize on the higher interest rates. This is promoting a strong dollar which means cheaper prices on imports and better bargains for overseas travelers. From the standpoint of other countries it means capital flight and as money leaves those countries, there is less to invest at home.

Fertilizer

There is a disaster looming on the horizon represented by the coming world food shortage. The proper use of fertilizers can double crop yield and the main three chemical fertilizers, nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium are going to be in short supply because of the war in Ukraine. Russia is the top exported of fertilizer and their shipments depend on the Black Sea which is currently in a war zone. In addition Ukraine is a major exporter of food grains and those shipments are in jeopardy. The shortage will be most acute in sub Sarah Africa and news reports will start to show starvation in these countries. The food shortage will be followed by an energy shortage since oil exports from Russia will slow. If that goes on for even a few months Russian oil will back up and they will have to shut down wells in Siberia. When that happens the water will freeze and pipes will burst and it would take years to get that oil back on stream. This will create energy shortages throughout Asia. For these reasons Americans will continue to turn away from the war. Someone or ones must rise to the occasion and demand a peaceful settlement in Ukraine. Will that be the American people when they start seeing starvation Africa coupled will continued billions of dollars used to kill innocent people while blowing up their homes. Where are the anti war songters like Bob Dylan and Joan Baez when you need them.

Reshoring

The realization that supply chains are too long and complicated started about ten years ago but was accelerated by Covid and companies are looking to retool here in North America. Companies that in the past used excess profit to increase dividend and buy back stock will now start to use those funds for investing in new facilities. These new manufacturing plants will use the latest technology and be more efficient and more productive. Here is a quote from Business Insider magazine: American manufacturers are increasingly bringing production back to the US to reduce their reliance on global supply chains that proved vulnerable to disruption such as the pandemic. Besides big companies like GE, Intel and US Steel reshoring, other companies like Walmart and Target are promoting reshoring. Walmart will buy more from existing domestic suppliers, do business with new domestic suppliers, and help current suppliers reshore their overseas production. One bell weather company to watch is Apple who is sitting on billions in cash but still reluctant to give up on China. They are trying to get on the band wagon but not with a full effort. Managers in Apple's operations department have instructed employees to focus on sourcing additional components and locating production lines outside China for more new products coming in 2024, though the company also plans to retain extensive operations in the country

America

The globalization promoted by the United States after WW 2 allowed growth throughout the world, including moving over one billion people out of poverty, mostly in Asia. After 40 years of watching their jobs disappear, the middle income blue collar workers got fed up and finally revolted with the election of Trump in 2016. The move toward onshoring was accelerated by the supply chain problems that were exposed during Covid and Biden has continued the trend. The dream of some liberals that Brussels will become a world government is fast disappearing and organizations like the UN, the WTO and the WHO are losing their influence. Supply chains are currently so complex that they can no longer do the job and new systems must be developed. The United States is strategically situated to take advantage of the new world order. Using the workers from Mexico and the natural raw materials in the US and Canada will allow North America to lead the world into the new economic frontier. The retiring baby boomers will no longer be big consumers and will move their wealth in to safe havens where it is not easily available for investing but they left behind 50 million Gen Xer's and they in turn left 84 million millennial's and these two groups are ages 28 to 58 and are both workers and consumers who are investing in stocks through their 401k plans. This money is available to companies for investment. Over the next ten plus years companies will be reshoring and need the construction of new facilities. The US will shorten its supplies supply chains from Asia and North America will have the needed work force from Mexico to supplement the US workers to fill the jobs. These will be high income manufacturing jobs with benefits and will reignite the dying union movement. The short term result will be high inflation but long term it will create an economy where wages increase faster than inflation. The resulting economy will reunite the country and the concept of dividing people by groups will lose favor and America will once again be the shinning light on the hill.

Reshoring

As the population continues to move away from big northern and western cities this trend will grow as the great reshoring continues to expand. The new manufacturing facilities will be built in the south from the Carolina's to Arizona with Texas and Florida leading the way. Low taxes, lower cost of living and better weather will be the main causes. With the end of globalization the US must double its manufacturing over the next few years bringing with it higher wages and higher inflation. If done properly with cooperation between private industry and government the growth will continue many years and the inflation will decline. This may well usher in an economic boom like was seen in the 1950's with wages rising faster than inflation.

San Fran

Recently I heard a description of Paris just before the French Revolution. It said that a small group of elites lived in opulence while the peons walked through streets filled with human excrement and it reminded me of San Francisco today. Is that city headed for a revolution. It's been over a year since San Francisco ousted progressive DA Boudin but not much has improved.

Carbon shifting

People often live under the impression that they are doing things to help the environment when in fact they just don't understand the big picture. Someone who recycles old cans and bottles but lives in a big house in the suburbs or someone who drives an EV not knowing the carbon footprint the car had before it was purchased. There is one case that involves an entire country. Norway will be carbon free by 2030. They can do this because there are only 5 million people who live there and they are blessed with hydro-power. If this were the end of the story then kudos to Norway but that is only part of the story. Norway has the largest oil reserves in Europe most of it coming from the North Sea. Norway exports 1.4 million barrels of oil per day along with 120 billion cubic meters of natural gas making it the largest exported of natural gas to Europe. Norway earns $170 billion dollars from oil and gas exports which equates to $34,000 for every man, woman and child in the country. The government invests these funds and the fund is currently valued at $1.5 trillion or $300,000 per person. This money supports healthcare, unemployment, pensions, infrastructure projects and much more. This is an example of what is called shifting carbon. When the US talks about wind and solar and EV's the carbon footprint is shifted to the coal fired power plants in China where the raw materials used in wind, solar and EV's are mined and processed. This is just one more example of not looking at the big picture.

Chips

It is not easy to see a national security threat to the United States in Ukraine. The best explanation is that if Russia takes Ukraine they will not stop there but continue to invade other countries eventually one of the NATO countries which leads to a confrontation between the US and Russia which leads to nuclear war. Others understand that as much as Putin would like to bring back the glory days of the Soviet Union he has learned in Ukraine that it is not easy and he would have second thoughts. In regards to China it is easy to see how the national security of the US is at stake. At this time almost all of the high end chips are made in Taiwan and if China had control of Taiwan they could force the US to continue to buy goods from China if the US wanted access to the high end chips. As of now the US could be bullied into a confrontation with China using Taiwan as the bargaining chip (pun intended). If the US takes immediate steps to start producing its own high end chips then China taking Taiwan will not directly effect the national security of the US. The main chip company in Taiwan is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC). The US would have to bring some of their technical people to the US to start a new company to make high end chips. Once this is done the US will no longer have any ties to Taiwan.

Bus

There are about 10 million open jobs in the US as witnessed by the many signs in businesses across the country and this includes a nation wide shortage of school bus drivers. I drove a school bus a few years back and decided at that time the pay should be at least $50 per hour. First off the driver is responsible of the safety of 75 little people. Second you have to work all day for 5 hours pay because you work morning and afternoons but not in between. At some stops as many as a dozen kids get off and you must watch and account for each as they leave. Every year somewhere a school bus runs over a kid getting off the bus. They have mirrors all around but its best on these crowded exits to get off the bus and walk around.

Green stuff

Today I listened to a one hour show on NPR where they were discussing wind, solar and EV's. No one mentioned the problems with mining, processing and disposal of the elements and chemicals needed. Later I watched a show on Youtube about mining, processing and disposal of materials needed for wind, solar and EV's and no one mentioned nuclear power. We are only getting a part of the story.

New home

One area that inflation hurts the most is in the cost of a home. Just three years ago in 2020 the average home in the US cost $329,000 and the interest rate on a 30 years loan was 2.68%. Today the average home cost $416,000 and the 30 year rate is 7%. This is the difference between a monthly principal and interest charge of $1,331 vs $2,768. The cost of a home for the average person has doubled in three years. Anyone who has tried to build a new home recently understands fully how the cost of material have risen

Inequality

History shows us that the number one reason that people desire a socialist type government is income inequality. This has been getting worse in the US since the 1980's. There are a number of things that can be done to slow down and even reverse this trend. 1. Withhold SS on all earnings like is now done with Medicare. That wage is currently $160,000 2. Have SS benefits reduced for singles with retirement incomes over $200,000 and $400,000 for couples. 3. Promote private unions 4. Increase child tax credit and earned income credits 5. Make the EV $7,500 tax credit refundable so it helps low income people 6. Increase tax brackets to include 50% on income over $1 million and 70% over $5 million 7. Raise minimum wage 8. Promote school choice where the money follows the student 9. Increase the Medicare surtax from 3.5% to 7% 10. Privatize social security which allows people who do not live normal life expectancy to pass on left over SS funds to heirs. In the US rich men live 15 years longer than poor men and rich women live ten years longer than poor women. 11. Tax rate for capital gains to be the same as for ordinary income

Tax

There are two types of tax credits and they are refundable and non refundable. The child tax credit is an example of refundable. The credit is $2,000 for each child under the age of 17. The taxpayer gets this money even if no tax is owed. The $7,500 tax credit for the purchase of an EV is an example of non refundable meaning that you only get the credit if you owe taxes. Most people who buy a $50,000 EV owe some taxes so they get a tax break. Say you own $10,000 in taxes your credit means you only pay $2,500. The same thing is true for the 30% tax credit on solar panels. If the cost of solar panels is $60,000 you get a credit of $18,000. The people who qualify for this credit are people with high incomes and most low and middle income people do not qualify. Once you install solar panels your cost of electricity is not only free but you can sell the excess back to the power company. This means they have to raise the rates to cover the buy back which means that the rich people who can afford the panels are causing the prices to increase on the poor and middle income groups. One of the best ways to fight income inequality is to increase the child tax credit. A single mom with one child working part time and earning $20,000 per year will pay no income tax and get a refund check for $2,000.

Title IX

Powerlifter, Anne Andres, a 40 year old biological male, wins women's record in Canada. Andres' total weight lifted in squat, bench and deadlift resulted in a final score of 597 kilograms, which was 200 kilograms more than her closest opponent, Sujan Gill, who finished at 387 kilograms. With that total, Andres set a new Canadian women's national record at the championship, while it also being an unofficial women's world record. This is an extreme example but this same thing is happening in other sports. All of the progress that women's sports made since Title IX in 1972 is now in jeopardy.

GI bill

The military is not getting the number of recruits needed and many wonder why since benefits are significant. Joining the military is not only a patriotic thing but it can help with education. An enlisted man who dies on active duty after 6 years in the army would be an E-7 and his salary would be $4,245 per month. If he dies on active duty he would be eligible for Dependency and Indemnity Compensation (DIC) of $1,560 per month for the surviving spouse plus $387 for each child under age 18 and DIC is tax free. In addition the family would be entitled to $3,262 per month from social security. The DIC continues for life to the spouse and the social security stops when the youngest child is 18 and picks up again when the spouse is age 60. The family income for a spouse with one child would be $5,209 which is about $1,000 per month more than the family income before the soldier died. In addition the service member qualifies for low cost life insurance and most sign up for $100,000 at $7 per month and up to $500,000 for $31 per month. These rates are most favorable to older soldiers since they are not age related like most life insurance. In addition the new GI Bill covers college tuition and fees up to $26,000 per year for four years. Also included is up to $2,700 per month for housing expenses and $1,200 for tutors. You only need to sign up for three years to get these educational benefits. You can also take up to three courses per semester while you are in the military. As a comparison when I went to college in the 1950's the GI Bill paid a flat $90 per month.

Biden

Biden was elected not because people wanted to vote for him but because they wanted to vote against Trump. Biden immediately tossed out all of Trumps policies and in the process threw out the baby with the bath water. He changed the border policy which led to increasing the number of illegals crossing from 40,000 per month to 200,000 per month. He pushed for wind and solar and cut back on oil production which caused the price of everything to rise since shipping cost increased and this led to inflation. He was anti police which led cities to cut police budgets and destroy the moral of police departments which led to high crime. He then spent the next two plus years trying to bring down crime and inflation and regain control of the border.

China

China was a country of people living in poverty for many years until 1978 when the government opened up to the free market. China's economy started to grow from less than one trillion to over two trillion by 2001. Then China was allowed into the World Trade Organization in 2001 and since the economy has grown to $19 trillion. This growth was possible for four reasons. First was low labor cost. Second very few regulations. Third low import taxes. Forth currency manipulation. Mostly unmentioned is child and slave labor. Currency manipulation is a policy used by governments and central banks of some of America’s largest trading partners to artificially lower the value of their currency (in turn lowering the cost of their exports) to gain an unfair competitive advantage.

Lies

Former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper was in the news recently as one of the 51 officials who signed a letter saying that the Hunter Biden laptop was Russian disinformation. Americans quickly forget about past stories but Clapper was involved with the Snowden leaked NSA secret documents. Recall that after 9-11 Bush using the Patriot Act allowed surveillance on American citizens. Whistle blowers leaked this and an investigation followed. This was during the 2008 election and Obama pledged his administration would not allow such activity. After Obama was elected he chose to continue the collection of information on American citizens. During the investigation Clapper testified before congress that no such collecting was going on. Here was the question he was asked: Does the NSA collect any type of data at all on millions of Americans. He answered no. The Snowden documents later revealed that the government was collecting data on millions and when Clapper was asked about this he said, I didn't lie, I made a big mistake and I just simply didn't understand what I was being asked about. This adds a third way to avoid being charged with lying to congress. The first two were used most recently by Hillary Clinton who answered many questions by saying, I don't know or I don't remember. Hillary Clinton told the FBI, I do not recall or remember 39 times in her interviews with the FBI about her private email servers.

Global

Starting around 1500 European countries began to colonize the rest of the world. Each country set up its own colonies and used those people to bring a better life to the colonizer. Using cheap labor they would extract raw materials and manufacture goods at low prices. This provided a good life for those in Europe but at the expense of the colonial countries. European countries would often times steal from their neighboring countries and in particular in times of war which was frequent. In addition pirates roamed the sea stealing from everyone. At the end of WW 2 the American navy was so superior that the United States guaranteed the safety of the seas. Their purpose was to win friends and promote world markets which could be used to control the Soviet Union. This new freedom to ship products around the world without fear of being hijacked opened the door to world trade. Now countries with coal could trade with countries that had food and so on. This new way of doing business on a world wide scale was called globalization. As with all things there were winners and losers. The winners were the more than one billion people in Asia who were brought out of poverty. The losers were Western middle income workers who watched their jobs being sent overseas. Large areas of American and Europe became rust belts as manufacturing jobs moved to areas with low wages and no regulations. Workers with tech skills along with the investor class all got richer with the top one percent getting 54% of the new wealth. When the Soviet Union collapsed there was no longer a need for the United States to protect the seas and there was no need for globalization. The dismantling of globalization started with Bush 41 in the early 90's and continued up to and including Trump. Trump accelerated the process by putting import taxes on China, by dropping out of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) and promoting bring jobs back home. Biden has continued the Trump policies.

EV's

EV batteries last 8 to 10 years and cost about $10,000 to replace. The average life of a car in the US is 12 years. 60% of the time that you charge your car battery you are using fossil fuel generated power. There are 290 million cars on the road in the US and 1.7 million are all electric. The average EV cost $10,000 more than the average gas powered car so it is the wealthy people who are buying these cars many for the prestige. That is wearing thin for many buyers much like the trendy folks who after five years have stopped buying fake meat. After 20 years of subsidies costing billions EV's represent less than one percent of the cars on the road. The government has pushed the idea that these cars are saving the planet but the people aren't buying that idea. Instead people are moving away from sedans and buying SUV's and small trucks. Most people who have EV's charge them at home because it takes several hours so they charge overnight. The average EV will travel 250 miles on a charge assuming it is not winter in MN. As the novelty of this whole idea wears off people will turn against EV's. This is already happening to those who own EV's. To really impact climate change the government should be pushing natural gas cars and building natural gas stations around the country. Just as using natural gas for power plants has reduced CO2 to record lows the same thing would happen going to natural gas for transportation.

2024

As the country move inexorably toward the 2024 election the two sides are laying out their strategies. At this time it appears that the Biden family business of selling access is coming unraveled. Each new revelation brings on new pressure to dump Joe. Some feel that in the fall Joe will announce that because of health problems he will not be seeking a second term. This will be followed by his pardoning of his son and thus the saga will end as the press then turns toward Kamala and Trump. Kamala's ineptness will not be a problem as which ever group has been running the government under Joe will continue to run things under Kamala. The big battle will be between Trump on one side and a coalition of forces on the other side composed of the democratic establishment, the bureaucracy, the never Trump RINOS, the press, Hollywood and social media. While the news will center around these two sides the elephant in the room, the ballot harvesters, will go unnoticed until election day when the party most adept at finding new voters will determine the outcome. The Trump plan is two fold. First for the nomination he will be joined by a half dozen other candidates who will all have pretty much the same agenda. They will be for smaller government, lower taxes, secure borders, energy independence, pro-policing, no cash bail, putting criminals in jail, bringing jobs home and schools teaching academics while leaving cultural issues up to parents. Once Trump has secured the nomination he will set about finding a negotiated settlement to the war, he will expose the green deal as a social change program disguised as a climate change plan and thus open the door to nuclear power which will in fact solve the problem of climate change, he will reduce business regulations to accelerate the reshoring of manufacturing which will bring about economic growth which will lead to higher wages and continue increasing import taxes on goods from China. Once he gets the economy growing properly he will turn his attention to draining the swamp and there will be massive changes in the bureaucracy.

Cities

For the past two years Fox News has had reporters on the southern border reporting on the influx of migrants. They have video from drones on almost daily and all this time the press ignored the situation. When ever the governor of Texas tried to stem the tide of migrants he was challenged by the federal government. They said it was not the business of the states to secure the border it was the responsibility of the federal government and they are correct. Section IV Article 4 says the federal government shall protect each of the states against invasion. Many places declared that they were sanctuary cities and that they welcome the poor and downtrodden. This is called virtue signally. It is suppose to show that the people in these cities are compassionate and are genuinely concerned about their fellow man. This all came tumbling down when these migrant started showing up in these cities. Yesterday a sanctuary state Massachusetts declared a state of emergency. They have 20,000 migrants in the state. This is how many illegals cross the border in three days. In one town, Brownsville, TX 15,000 migrant crossed over in less than a week. This is a city of less than 200,000 people while the mayor of New York, population 8.5 million, cannot handle 100,000 migrants. The news is finally covering the story. This was prompted by Texas busing migrants to northern cities.

Proterra

Many people recall the fiasco with solar panel maker Solyndra, when after receiving $528 million in loan guarantees from the government and filed for bankruptcy. This means the government lost all that money. During the 18 months that the company was operating many employees made campaign contributions to democratic candidates. This same scenario has happened this year with a company called Proterra. The politically connected battery company told shareholders that it plans to ride the wave of government spending in the electric vehicle sector. The infrastructure bill set aside billions for electric school buses and Proterra got billions. Yesterday less than two years later Proterra filed for bankruptcy. There are numerous companies who claim to be in the green energy business who line up for government subsidies and then go broke. What happens to all the money is never really explained but much of it is returned in the form of campaign contributions. Here is a quote from the Infrastructure Bill. The legislation will provide $7.5 billion for zero- and low-emission buses and ferries, aiming to deliver thousands of electric school buses to districts across the country, according to the White House.

Afghan

There have been complaints about how the press fails to cover controversial issues concerning the Biden administration. An example of that happened yesterday when Gold Star mothers testified before congress and not one of the main stream stations covered the event. These families were upset with the fact that their sons were killed the day that the US was pulling out of Afghanistan. At that time the press reported the success of the thousands who were evacuated on that day. The people did not see it that way because Biden's approval rating dipped below water and has never recovered. In retrospect many see that Biden wanted our troops to be out of Afghanistan in time to celebrate on the 20th anniversary of the invasion. His generals told him to leave 2,500 troops but he was so intent on doing a nation wide victory lap on 9/11 that he ignored their advice. The withdrawal was such a disaster that he could not claim the credit he had planned on. The plan the generals wanted was to first pull out the America citizens along with the Afghans who had helped our soldiers, second to bring home the equipment and finally to bring all the troops home but 2,500 and to keep Bagram Air base. Biden chose to do just the opposite by bringing out the troops and leaving many Americans behind along with $7 billion dollars of military equipment.

Jail

Many people are wondering if either Trump or Biden will go to jail. One way to answer that is to review what happened in the now infamous mortgage crisis of 2008. Many of the big banks faced fines but the CEO's did not go to jail. Some representative fines are Bank of American with assets of $2,150 billion were fined $16.6 billion, JP Morgan assets of $2,420 billion, fined $13 billion and Citigroup $1,911 billion fined $7 billion. These big banks made trillions during the mortgage fraud and they got a slap on the wrist. In addition the CEO's received millions in bonuses. Many low down the food chain people in the mortgage business went to jail but not those at the top.

China

The industrial revolution started in 1800 and at that time 90% of the people lived on farms and today 99% of people live in the cities. In 1800 the average family had 7 children and today it is less than one. The move to the city happened slowly over a 200 year period so society had time to adjust but in China the situation is quite different. In China 80% of the population lived in rural areas in 1980 and today 40 years later only 35% live in the countryside. This means the number of children per family declined precipitously in less that two generations. Add to that the one child policy that went on from 1980 to 2015 and China is faced with a shortage of working age people. Not only do they not have enough workers but these are the consumers. China cannot make up the loss of workers by immigration because if you are not Han Chinese or closely related to that you are not welcome. China cannot produce its own food or energy and must rely on imports. Many countries, including Western countries are pulling out of China. China's leader Xi has gotten rid of his competitors and now no one brings him any distasteful news and one man cannot run the country alone. He is not aware of the impending danger that demographics presents and thus China will be in dire straights by the end of this decade.

SMR

Small modular nuclear (SMR) reactors produces excess heat which can be used to generate more electricity which can then be used to either desalt sea water or break down water into hydrogen and oxygen by electrolysis or both. The plant can be build in the desert near the ocean so the fresh water can be used to grow food in the desert. The hydrogen can be used as a fuel for transportation or the hydrogen can be combined with CO2 to synthesis organic fuels that can be used for heavy equipment and or planes. Hydrogen can be combined with nitrogen from the atmosphere to make ammonia using the Haber process. Now we have a thorium SMR located on the Mediterranean Sea which is near the desert. The water is desalted and the ammonia is produced and we have perfect set up to grow two crops per year and the cost is minimal. The deserts in the Southwest USA can become croplands. We can stop global warming and feed a hungry world. We don't need long transmission lines because plants are smaller and installed near the use point. The only thing standing in the way is politics.

Atoms for peace

During the late 1950's Eisenhower recognized the potential of nuclear power and presented a program which he called Atoms For Peace. The scientist of the day agreed and the building of nuke power plants was underway and by 1990 there were 99 reactors at 66 locations. The fossil fuel industry saw these plants as a threat to their business so they began a campaign to scare the public and they succeeded. They used money from the Rockefeller Foundation to produce news items saying that any radiation is detrimental and can cause genetic damage. They got movie stars to spread across the county telling people of the dangers of nuclear power and Hollywood started making movies showing monsters that were created by genetic changes. Next they convinced the environmental groups like Greenpeace and The Sierra Club to join forces with them to scare the public and together they succeeded in stopping nuclear plant production. The World Health Organization says that more than five million people die each year from air pollution caused mostly by burning fossil fuels. If the big oil companies had not succeeded in their campaign to destroy the nuclear industry many lives could have been saved. Now is the time for the world to recognize that the answer to climate change is nuclear power. There has never been a death or injury in the United States caused by nuclear power plants. Today's small modular nuke plants are far superior to the old uranium plants and can be built in factories on assembly lines and transported to their usage point.

Crime

in prison. This leads to not arresting as many minorities which in turn leads to having criminals on the street which leads to more crime. That is the situation that many big cities are facing and one of the main reasons why cities are losing people. The primary responsibility of government is to protect the citizens and when they feel they are in danger they move to a safer place. Another area is adjusting tests for various jobs to allow more minorities to pass. This can sometimes lead to having unqualified people holding down jobs that can effect the safety of the public. Another is in the schools where test are adjusted to allow more students to pass. In all of these cases instead of going to the source of the problem they try to adjust the results. This is just another way of saying equal results rather than equal opportunity. One way to see the deleterious effects of equity is in the area of crime. Social justice advocates start out demanding that prison populations represent the general population which means there are two many minorities

Class

Last week I said that it is racist when White college educated people believe that the Black man cannot succeed without public assistance. My statement would have been more accurate if I had said White Ivy league types. David Brooks was a guy from the Midwest who has been in New York for so long he is part of the eastern establishment and he wrote in the Times: it's easy to understand why people in less-educated classes would conclude that they are under economic, political, cultural and moral assault and why they've rallied around Trump as their best warrior against the educated class. This idea of separating people based on class as illustrated by education is just one more example of identity politics. It is odd that the republicans are now the party of the low to middle income groups. The democrats see these people as deplorables. To quote Hillary they are racist, homophobic, xenophobic and Islamaphobic.

Oil

The US currently gets 15% of its oil from public lands. The federal estate contains 2.46 billion acres and the private lands compose 1.5 billion acres. Oil production on federal lands could make a significant contribution to the supply if laws would allow companies to make a profit. However the Build Back Better Bill does just the opposite. This bill was passed under the name of the Inflation Reduction Bill. It contains a long list of increases in federal royalties and fees, plus new fees, new taxes and barriers to leasing. This will put pricing more under control of OPEC. The world will end up using more dirty oil from Saudi Arabia and Venezuela in place of clear oil from the US. This of course means the profits will to these other countries.

War

As early as 1994 President Clinton warned against the dangers of NATO expansion. The Soviet Union and later Russia needed buffer countries to protect them from invasion and one of those was Ukraine. The Russians continually reminded the west of their concern about their safety but they were ignored. As the 12 NATO countries during the cold war expanded to 27 countries, Putin became more concerned and expressed his concern on a number of occasions. During the early 2000's Bush pushed for Ukraine to join NATO but France and Germany opposed it fearing escalation with Russia. The West was well aware of Putin's concern about Ukraine joining NATO but they kept pushing the idea. Finally in order to bring his concern to the forefront Putin invaded with a small force thinking the West would heed his pleas but when they did not he increased his war effort to where we are today. If the West had agreed not to allow Ukraine into NATO this war could have been avoided. To date an estimated 400,000 have been injured or killed and it will take $500 billion to rebuild Ukraine. This is just after a little over two years of war and there seems to be no end in sight. The important question now is have we reached the point where if Russia begins to lose the war will this force Putin to use nukes. Polls show American support for the war is waning and this will continue until the war just winds down to a fizzle and all those people will have died in vain and the country of Ukraine will be trashed.

Adams

By definition a sanctuary city is a city whose municipal laws tend to protect undocumented immigrants from deportation or prosecution, despite federal immigration law. While migrants were coming into small Texas cities, NY City Mayor Adams declared his city to be a sanctuary city. This was considered by some to be what is called virtue signaling and it seems they were right. When migrant came to New York City, Adams sent them to different states and even back to China. He recently began sending migrants to upstate New York to two republican counties. Most people understand that is easy to take the high road when you are not directly effected but that changes when the problem is on your doorstep. We see this with people who are more concerned about criminals that the victims of crime until crime comes to their house.

Impeach

Trump was impeached because a whistle blower said that Trump on a phone call asked Ukraine to investigate Hunter Biden's dealings with an Ukrainian oil company called Burisma. The democrats claimed that Trump was going to withhold aid to Ukraine if they did not investigate. Trump denied that. Democrats say the phone call was proof that Trump broke the law by seeking foreign help to try to smear Biden. Trump released a transcript of the phone call claiming he did nothing wrong. Trump was found not guilty by the senate. The interesting thing is that later reporting showed that Biden's son was working for Burisma and his job was threatened by an ongoing investigation. Biden went to Ukraine and told them if they did not stop the investigation he would withhold one billion dollars in aid and they abruptly stopped the investigation. In what is considered an unwise move President Biden released a video showing him demanding the Ukrainians stop the investigation or he would withhold the billion dollars. Another interesting point that came out later is that the whistle blower admitted he did not hear the phone call but was told about it by a third party. This led to speculation that the government leaked this information and it was later discovered that the government had been listening in on most of the administration employees and that explained the large number of leaks.

Trump

As the charges mount against Trump, the thing that will hurt him is not whether the jury finds him guilty but the time he must spend in court. When you are charged in criminal court you are required by law to be in the courtroom. For Trump this means you are not on the campaign trail. Holding campaign rallies is a Trump strong point and he will be denied these opportunities and they may be many as his trials are all scheduled between now and election day. Some Trump fans see this as election interference. For the Trump haters this is the best thing that could happen.

Meetings

Back in the 80's during the S&L scandal former Senator John McCain got in trouble and later said it was one of his biggest mistakes. There was meeting to limit the liability that the government would have toward poorly run S&L's. This was a regularly scheduled meeting that senators did not normally attend. When Senator McCain showed up everyone knew that they were to extend the time to these S&L's and that delay of almost a year cost the government additional billions. The point is that McCain never said word. The fact that he was present was enough to set the course for the meeting. This sort of thing happened with Hunter and Joe Biden. Hunter would hold meetings with his business partners and during the meeting he would call his father and ask his dad to say hello to the group. He would do that and then say goodbye and hang up. He did not discuss any business with anyone present but everyone in the meeting knew that Hunter could contact his dad whenever he wished. This is not a new and clever strategy. This is what people who don't want to leave any evidence do. This is so common in has a name, plausible deniability. While this is done with a wink and a nob there is no smoking gun. In fact this kind of behavior adds credibility to the meeting.