Sunday, August 6, 2023

China

The industrial revolution started in 1800 and at that time 90% of the people lived on farms and today 99% of people live in the cities. In 1800 the average family had 7 children and today it is less than one. The move to the city happened slowly over a 200 year period so society had time to adjust but in China the situation is quite different. In China 80% of the population lived in rural areas in 1980 and today 40 years later only 35% live in the countryside. This means the number of children per family declined precipitously in less that two generations. Add to that the one child policy that went on from 1980 to 2015 and China is faced with a shortage of working age people. Not only do they not have enough workers but these are the consumers. China cannot make up the loss of workers by immigration because if you are not Han Chinese or closely related to that you are not welcome. China cannot produce its own food or energy and must rely on imports. Many countries, including Western countries are pulling out of China. China's leader Xi has gotten rid of his competitors and now no one brings him any distasteful news and one man cannot run the country alone. He is not aware of the impending danger that demographics presents and thus China will be in dire straights by the end of this decade.

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