Friday, August 1, 2025
Clouding issues
Issues are often clouded by combining related points in a misleading way. A good example is including legal immigration with illegal immigration. More recently are the stories about Russian interference in the 2016 election. They interfered by placing ads on social media but they did not collude with Trump. The NY Times columnist Bret Stephens wrote that Trump did collude with the Russias but later changed.
Stephens also admitted the Russian collusion narrative - "the Steele dossier and all the bogus allegations, credulously parroted in the mainstream media, that flowed from it" - that marred Trump's presidency was an "elaborate hoax" and that "there’s just no other word for it".
US President Donald Trump's campaign did not conspire with Russia during the 2016 election, a summary of Special Counsel Robert Mueller's report says. This investigation lasted 22 months and cost $32 million dollars.
Special counsel John Durham concluded that the FBI should never have launched a full investigation into connections between Donald Trump’s campaign and Russia during the 2016 election. This investigation lasted four years and cost $6.5 million.
In spite of this the Internet is filled with stories that maintain the Trump/Russia connection is true.
Right now, the public is clamoring for the Epstein case to be investigated but will the results be ignored. Are government investigation only good for the fees attorneys earn.
As long as the politicians can keep the American voters at each other’s throats they are safe from any investigation and the public is more than happy to oblige.
European arms
During WW 2 the US manufactures were called upon to produce weapons for war and the response was nothing less than miraculous with the production of 300,000 air craft, 124,000 ships, 86,000 tanks and millions of other smaller trucks and vehicles. It appears the US is once again called upon to send arms to Europe. The EU has agreed to increase their defense spending to 5% of GDP and use much of that money to buy military supplies from the US. The projected purchases are $250 billion per year. This represents one forth of the US defense budget.
Thursday, July 31, 2025
Agencies
Government agencies have the responsibility to carry out congressional laws. Over the years this has led to agencies expanding the laws based on interpretation by some bureaucrats. The Supreme Court recently reined in this power when it overturned the Chevron deference doctrine a precedent that required courts to defer to federal agencies reasonable interpretations of ambiguous laws. Yesterday the administration rescinded the 2009 declaration that said that CO2 endangered health. This placed restrictions on autos, power plants, aircraft and oil and gas operations. This will remove one trillion dollars in regulation cost. One of the more notable results of this interpretation led the way to California banning gasoline powered cars.
Wednesday, July 30, 2025
History
The criticism of the educational system usually centers around the three R’s but something is also lacking in social studies. It is said that history repeats itself so students can learn from history. A 2025 survey found that 62% of Americans aged 18-29 have a favorable view of “socialism”. Here is brief history since WW 2.
Following World War II, Korea was liberated from Japanese rule but subsequently divided along the 38th parallel, with the Soviet Union occupying the north and the United States occupying the south. This division led to the establishment of two separate states in 1948. The north with an area of 122,000 sq miles and the south with 100,000. The south had 21 million population and the north 9 million. The country was somewhat like the US in that the north was the industrial area and the south more agrarian. Russia and China poured development money into the north while the south languished with a GDP per capita of $64. More than half the people suffered from absolute poverty. The north pursued a communist government while the south was democratic. By 2024 the GDP per capita rose to $36,000 in what has been called the Korean Miracle. Meanwhile the communist north economy only grew to $1,700 per capita. The Korean people were the same in both north and south in culture, history and religion. The difference is free market capitalism.
China had been a poor country for thousands of years with most people just surviving and at the end of WW 2 became a communist country. The great Mao revolution took place in the 1960’s and 70’s when 50 million people starved to death. The government then opened the door to the free market. The GDP in 1990 was $360 billion and grew to $1.2 trillion in 2000. Then China was allowed into the World Trade Organization (WTO) and was opened to the worlds markets and the GDP surged to $18 trillion in 2024. The free-market economy can survive even under a communist political system. When people are allowed the fruits of their labor they work harder and smarter. The central planning communist governments take away the freedom of the individual and leads to a preferential treatment of a few in leadership positions. In 1960 the population of the USSR was 200 million but only 15 million belonged to the communist party and they had the best apartments, cars and other benefits. Like George Orwell said his book entitled “1984”, under communism everyone is equal but some are more equal.
After WW 2 Germany was divided into East Germany under communism and West Germany as a democracy. Both sides were devastated by the war and by 1955 had started the slow process of recovery with the West having a GDP per capita of $3,000 and the East at $2,800. By 1990 when the wall fell the West was at $23,000 GDP and the East at $9,600. At that time Germany was reunited under the democratic West and today the GDP in $53,000.
Tuesday, July 29, 2025
Europe trade
Early reports suggest that the new trade deal with Europe will help lower the trade balance between the US and Europe which currently stands at $130 billion. Under the new agreement the US will charge a 15% import tax on goods coming from Europe and Europe will not have an import tax on goods coming from the US but Europe will still maintain its VAT which is 17% to 27% depending on the country. Other things being equal this will lower the trade deficit.
AI
One of the more dangerous areas in AI is something called predictive analytics which uses historical and current data to forecast future outcomes and trends. A simple example is a school where the teachers meet to discuss a particular student whose actions set off alarms. He may be the kind of student who will try to shoot up the school. On a larger and far more significant level is a company who collects large amounts of data and uses that to predict the future behavior of some individual or group. This can easily be misused. For example, a government who wants to silence some person can collect information which indicates this person is planning some kind of terrorist act and they then arrest him. The real story is that his speech is a threat but the cover story is that he is arrested because he is a terror threat. As more data is collected the opportunities for misuse increase.
Good jobs
The basic economic policy of the democratic party is income and in some cases wealth redistribution. Ten percent of the wage earners pay 72% of all income tax while the bottom 50% pay 3% with 76 million families paying no income tax. The policies are designed to take money from the top and give it to the bottom in the form of public assistance programs. This puts the government in control of who gets what and when. It leads to some low-income people becoming dependent on the government. Most everyone understands the need for a safety net for those who for reasons beyond their control need help. The discussion centers around the needy and those who are scamming the system. In a recent example, changes were made to Medicaid. One interpretation is that millions were cut from Medicaid. Many of these are able bodied adults who could maintain their insurance if they agreed to work 20 hours per week. Others are losing coverage because they don’t know how to fill out the paper work. What these programs need is oversight by congress to prevent abuse but congress turns this over to groups who have a vested interest in keeping the programs going and growing. Some of the wasteful spending has recently been exposed but it is only the tip of the iceberg. The bureaucracy has become so large it is unmanageable. The emphasis must shift from providing benefits to providing good paying jobs so people will not need public assistance. Bringing back manufacturing jobs is a start in this direction.
VW
As the US economy grows, companies around the world are planning on increasing their US production and the new tariffs will accelerate this process. Using Volkswagen as an example. VW is planning on doubling its Tennessee facility’s capacity to 600,000 units per year. VW backed Scout Motors is building a $2 billion EV plant near Columbia, SC. In 2023 VW produced 2 million cars in Germany and only 150,000 per year in the US while exporting 350,000 cars to the US. VW is closing three of its ten VW plants in Germany. Even though Germany has dropped its tariffs on US auto imports the number of exports to Germany will likely not increase since they still have a 19% value added tax (VAT). All European countries have a VAT and until that is resolved exports to Europe will not increase. One of the main reasons to introduce tariffs is to reduce the $1.2 trillion trade deficit. This is accomplished by having foreign companies produce more of the exports here in the US. This avoids the tariffs. Under the new plan the tariffs on import of cars to the US will increase from 2.5% to 15%.
Monday, July 28, 2025
Gas exports
US natural gas exports have doubled since 2018 and most of the increase is going to Europe which stopped buying gas from Russian when the Ukraine War started on Feb 2022. Since 2016 the US has built 8 natural gas export facilities with 8 new sites under construction and a dozen more have receive approval. The US is the worlds largest natural gas exporter and that will double in the next three years. In 2024 these exports contribute $50 billion to the US GDP and support 222,000 good paying jobs. During these years the cost of heating the average US home using natural gas has remained steady at $600 per year. The increase in natural gas production was largely due to fracking for oil. Natural gas is the cleanest of all fossil fuels and using this for transportation would reduce CO2 emissions by 30%. This would reduce US CO2 emissions to 1960 levels when the population was 180 million vs today’s 330 million.
Wednesday, July 23, 2025
Tariff imbalance
Japan has made a decision to align with the US on economics. They are a country with deep respect for their elders and find themselves with too many old people and not enough young people. The birthrate needed to maintain the population is 2.1 births per woman and Japan is stuck at 1.2 and dropping. Their solution is to manufacture and sell products in other countries, particularly in the US, then return the profits home to care for the elderly. These changes will help reduce the trade imbalance with Japan which is currently $68 billion. South Korea is another country facing the same problems and their trade imbalance is $66 billion. South Korea has a 10% tariff and a 15% VAT while the US had a 2.5% tariff on some goods from South Korea. Trump is using the same strategy on South Korea that he used on Japan. He is proposing a 25% tax to start the negotiations. Other countries are on the list for tariff negotiations. This is the situation that the US has faced for many years resulting in a $1.2 trillion dollar trade imbalance.
Hard sell
The big beautiful tax bill renewed the Trump tax bill of 2017. A family of four earning $80,000 in 2016 paid $4,752 in federal income tax. After the tax reduction bill the same family paid $2,229 for a savings of $2,523 per year. The savings for wealthy families was more as it is the case when you have a progressive tax system. If this bill had not passed this tax savings would have disappeared as everything would have reverted back to pre-2017 times. This bill is unpopular and the job of the republicans was to go back home and sell the bill. This will be tough because the town hall questions will be about Epstein and the Obama interference in the 2016 election. On the other side the democrats instead of talking to their constituents about their plans to improve the economy by redistribution they will be getting questions about how they plan to go after Trump. Even if they could get past their Trump bashing, they would still be bogged down by woke stuff. The republicans have the easiest task. They could just release all the info on Epstein and forget about the 2016 election. The democrats have a harder sell since they have too many people who are tangled up in unpopular cultural issues. They have to go back to their basics of taxing the rich and offering benefits to the non-rich.
Japan trade
Japan produced 9 million cars in 2024 and sold 4.4 million in Japan and exported 4.6 million but only 1.4 million to the US. Japanese companies produced 2.8 million cars in US facilities. This will likely increase to avoid the new 15% tariffs imposed in Trump’s latest deal. He threatened 25% but reduced to 15% to seal the deal. Japan will invest $500 billion in the US to build cars here to avoid the 15% tax. They also agreed to open their markets to a wide range of US products including cars.
Gain
Trump is considering removing the capital gains tax on the sale of your personal residence and a second home. The current limit before taxing is $500,000 for a married couple. This change would only help the rich since the average couple would not have more than a $500,000 gain.
Fairness Act
On January 5, 2025, just before he left office, President Biden signed into law the Social Security Fairness Act. This was a bi partisan bill with the house voting 327-75 and the senate 76-20. Prior to this time people who received both a government pension and social security had their benefits reduced but that is no longer the case. The bill was made effective back to Jan 2024. It will cost $20 billion per year for the 3 million effected or $6,700 each. This is one step toward reducing the income gap. Two groups will be most affected. Teachers in states like Illinois who did not participate in social security and federal government employees hired before 1987. Since 1987 all government employees no longer participated in Civil Service, which was a defined benefit plan, and were required to join The Federal Employees Retirement Plan, a 401K type plan.
The new law affects two parts. The windfall elimination provision (WEP) and the government pension offset (GPO)
Example. Jane worked 30 years under civil service and was not covered by social security. She also worked ten years in the private sector covered by SS. Her civil service pension is $3,000 per month and she is eligible for $900 from SS.
Under current law the WEP would reduce her SS from $900 to $500 and no spousal benefit because of the GPO.
Under the new law she gets the full $900 from SS and becomes eligible for a spousal benefit of $2,000. Total SS she receives is $2,900. This will increase her SS benefit by $2,400 ($2,900 minus $500). The spousal benefit is the 75% of her husband’s SS which in this example was $3,000 per month
Sunday, July 20, 2025
Webb
As the globalist system is exposed, one of the leading antagonists is a 33-year-old woman who looks 15 named Whitney Webb. She does her work by researching public records and only publishes what are considered facts and she lists her sources. She has an uncanny ability to remember names, places and events and puts them all together in book form. She connects the dots in a manner that allows for the reader to grasp complex arrangements between seemingly unconnected groups. By merely organizing different factors she can draw a clear picture of how things come together. She recently finished a two-volume book of 1,000 pages just on the Epstein case. The book is filled with factual information but impossible to read. The connections to various people and other entities are so vast the reader cannot keep up with all the participants.
This full story will likely never be understood, so news people will take parts, mostly out of context, and push their agendas and has normally is the case, the readers will seek out what they want to believe.
Downs Syndrome
Early detection of Downs Syndrome is considered by many as the canary in the mine. Currently two/thirds of Downs babies are aborted in Western countries and in Demark the number is 100%. The list of other diseases that can be determined in vitro is growing with names like Cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs disease, Sickle cell anemia and Huntington’s disease leading the pact. In today’s world 85% of abortions are for non-medical reasons but as technology of in vitro testing improves health reasons may compete with economic reasons.
In 1932, author Aldous Huxley wrote a book entitled “Brave New World” where citizens are environmentally engineered into an intelligence-based society hierarchy. The novel predicts scientific advancements in reproductive technology which will allow abortions to advance society.
Many books were written during this time offering suggestions on how men could become like gods by weeding out the weak to promote a better life for all. The latest move in this direction is assisted suicide.
WEF
The World Economic Forum (WEF) meets once per year in Davos Switzerland.
Participants include around 3,000 leaders from over 130 countries, featuring more than 350 governmental leaders and numerous business executives. Notable attendees will include heads of state and influential figures from various sectors.
Here is their stated purpose
We bring together government, businesses and civil society to improve the state of the world.
These people promote global programs such as the United Nations and its sub groups like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, the World Health Organization (WHO), the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the International Court of Justice (ICJ) also known as the World Court.
The use of the word world explains who and what these people represent. It can best be seen in action under the guise of Globalism which for fifty years has transferred wealth from the working people to the upper income groups. Many countries are moving toward nationalism and away from globalism and this is upsetting to those who attend Davos.
In the last meeting Trump sent a video speech to the group where he announced
Trump says will always put America first at Davos forum
This is the antithesis of globalism.
Saturday, July 19, 2025
World power
The many layers of the Epstein case represent a history of modern America. At the top is the sexual predator who provided young girls and woman for exclusive clients. Rich men can always get women but they need some place safe away from the press. The next layer threatens the first layer in that the identities of these men might become known. Closely following is the involvement of various intelligence agencies in the US and around the world, most notably Israel. Finally at the deepest level is the globalist. These are the billionaires who promoted world government with them at the controls. It is at this level where the rubber meets the road. Exposing the illegal activities of these oligarchs, would be the start of attacking the wealth and income inequality problem. These people were wounded when globalization came to an end and the people in Davos lost power but this is just the beginning. The only chance that the little people have in challenging this powerhouse is by way of independent media. It starts with the young people who get their information from pods and ignore the legacy media. On the other side are the billionaires of industry and Silicon Valley, the bureaucrats, the news media both TV and print and educators. The press will concentrate on the sex hoping that will take off the pressure to protect the globalist. If these people are exposed the country will feel that justice has prevailed and those running the world will be spared. One other way to help the people can be found in the current emphasis on nationalism. If each country starts to act independently it will thwart the plans of the globalist who want world wide control.
Friday, July 18, 2025
Capital cost
Now that 95% of the baby boomers have retired, the push for wind and solar has diminished and fossil fuels are a better option. People in their fifties and early sixties are at their highest earnings and have lots of cash to invest for retirement. This means lots of capital available for investment. After retirement they go conservative with their money and move into bonds, real estate and cash. Wind and solar use most of their cost in the building of the project and long-term cost are very low. (sun and wind are free). Gas and coal plant require only 15% of their cost up front for construction but long-term cost pay for the operation. (coal and gas are not free). The cost of capital today is 31% higher than just five years ago and thus is giving the edge to fossil fuels. This also effects nuclear power since most of its cost is up front unless the government moves some of its incentive funds away from solar and to nuclear. Interest rates will only come down if productivity goes up. New more efficient manufacturing facilities along with the new technology promised by AI could do the job.
Thursday, July 17, 2025
Ten years of Trump
In looking back over the past ten years of Trump, people often ask how he was able to succeed. To the silent majority he represented someone who was opposed to the bureaucracy. His early pledge to drain the swamp caught the attention of all the people who had watched their good paying jobs disappear and the bureaucrats who fostered the changes. First off, he was not a part of the swamp but also behaved in a manor which proved he was not a politician. There were at least a dozen occasions where his remarks were supposed to be his doom but each time he was knocked down, he got back up. The more politically incorrect he became the more he gained in popularity in the working class, those who had watched elected officials do nothing while they lost their jobs. His unorthodox behavior and irreverent speech, connected with the working folks. To this day the educated White liberals do not understand what hit them. They are not interested in explaining policy only in bad mouthing Trump. If forced into a corner they will respond by saying they stand for redistribution of the wealth.
ATC
Most agree that the job of air traffic controller (ATC) is stressful and so steps are taken in their schedule to reduce stress. They work 90 to 120 minutes and then take a mandatory 30-minute break. They also get two 15-minute breaks and a 30-minute lunch break. The shift can be up to 10 hours long when the break times are included and they must have at least 9 hours between shifts. There is a mandatory retirement age of 56. They are eligible for retirement at age 50 with 20 years of service and average retirement is $40,000 and extra is granted until social security kicks in at age 62. The average pay is $138,000. There has been an ongoing shortage of ATC for years and the government is expediting the hiring process by raising starting salaries and streamlining the application process. They are also offering bonuses for those who delay retirement. The training is mostly on the job and can last three to five years. $12 billion was set aside in the big new bill to train people and to upgrade systems.
Wednesday, July 16, 2025
Medicaid v Obamacare
Obamacare has been around for 15 years and there is some confusion as to how it relates with Medicaid. Medicaid was started in 1965 and designed to provide medical care to low-income people, disabled people and adults with children. It did not include adults without children. It was for people whose income was below the poverty level. Obamacare was a new program that was not connected to Medicaid but did change some of the rules of Medicaid. First off it increased the income level for qualification to 138% of the poverty level. Second it included adults without children. These changes opened the door for 13 million to join Medicaid. Medicaid is free for those earning less than 150% of the poverty level. Obamacare can be free but most pay a monthly premium plus an annual deductible. Those who sign up for the Silver Plan are eligible for subsidies to lower their cost. The average person on the Silver Plan pays $50 per month and has $500 annual deductible. Both Medicaid and Obamacare must cover preexisting conditions. If you find out today that you have cancer you can sign up and you will be insured the first day of next month. This is the antitheses of the insurance principal. As a result there are many young single people, who do not sign up for Obamacare but prefer to wait until they need the service.
Compassion
It’s not unusual for people to become more conservative as they age. It is said that if you are not liberal when you are young, then you don’t have a heart and if you are not conservative when you are old, you don’t have a brain. Any honest liberal is motivated by good intentions which is directed by empathy and compassion. Sometimes they are pejoratively referred to as do gooders or bleeding hearts. The down side is that all too often the law of unintended consequence creeps in and what was a good idea turns into a problem. In politics this kind of attitude is depicted in the phrase tax and spend liberal. The goal is to develop a meaningful safety net to help those truly in need. When this is put into practice another side of the equation appears. It seems if government largess is used to help someone it can lead to dependency on public assistance. This is where the plot thickens. All to quickly, those in charge of tax and spend, discover that they have the power to decide who gets what and when and people with power want to keep it. Elected officials want more than anything to get reelected. Thus, a circle is completed when those who receive the benefits ensure the continuation by voting for those who provide the benefits. Instead of concentrated on handing out benefits their time could be more productively spent by finding good paying jobs where people would no longer need the benefits. However, if the people no longer need the benefits, they may no longer be dependent on those who distribute the goodies. Many times compassion is used to cover up an agenda that has little to do with helping others and a lot to do with helping one self.
Threats
As the information about former President Biden’s cognitive decline continues to dribble out, the failure of the press comes to the forefront. Democratic leaders, donors and other backers had an incentive to cover up his decline but what was the reason why the press remained silent. One explanation was, that Trump was a threat to democracy and all means should be used to prevent him from becoming president. In other words, the press gave up on its responsibility to report the truth about Biden and chose instead to take on an agenda designed to prevent Trump from winning. Will this now remain as the position the press takes. Will they decide to sway the voters by using misinformation or withholding information. Will they justify their behavior by claiming threats to democracy?
Deporting migrants
The controversy surrounding the migrant problem is not new. Here are remarks from previous presidents.
Bush 43
This Nation is a nation of laws. And we're going to enforce our laws. That's what the American people expect.
Bill Clinton
The solution is to welcome legal immigrants and legal, legitimate refugees and to turn away those who do not obey the laws. We must say no to illegal immigration so we can continue to say yes to legal immigration.
Obama
Undocumented workers broke our immigration laws, and I believe that they must be held accountable
He then proceeded to deport 3 million most of whom never were adjudicated.
Most people understood that no effective border laws would work until the border was secured. Now that has happened and if politics were not in the way, the plan would be to deport those who are criminals, then the 1.2 million who have been judged not to be eligible for asylum. Those that remain could then be evaluated and a road to citizenship developed.
Local governments often times have criminals already incarcerated and could turn these over to ICE but instead they release them into the general population, which causes non criminals to be rounded up. Most people are aware that the path to citizenship could not be developed until the border was secure. Now that has happened and many do not want these migrants deported. This is a change from the days of Bush.
Monday, July 14, 2025
EU tariffs
Prior to Trump coming to office any products exported to the (EU) European Union paid a ten percent import tax and a 20% (VAT) value added tax. How much did a $50,000 America made car cost when exported to the EU?
Example Calculation (assuming $2,000 in shipping costs):
Car Value: $50,000
Import Duty (10%): $5,000
Shipping Costs: $2,000
Total for VAT calculation: $50,000 + $5,000 + $2,000 = $57,000
VAT (19%): $57,000 * 19% = $10,830
Total estimated import costs (excluding shipping): $5,000 (duty) + $10,830 (VAT) = $15,830
A $50,000 car made in the EU cost 2.5% to import to the US
A $50,000 car made in the US cost the European customer $65,830 while $50,000 car made in the EU cost the US customer $51,250.
In 2015, the EU exported approximately 1,155,488 passenger cars to the United States and the US sent 90,000 cars to the EU.
In 2015, the United States had a trade deficit of $153.3 billion with the European Union. Much of this was with cars.
Cost of home
The news today is filled with reports that young people cannot afford to be a first-time home buyer because the mortgage rates are too high. Today the rates run 6 to 7%
Home mortgage rates stayed above 7.5% from 1970 to 2000 with a high of 18%.
The parents of many of these young people recall paying 10% or higher for loans.
The problem is not the interest rate but the cost of homes. In 1970 the average home cost $24,000 and today the cost is $420,000. This is an increase of 5% per year. Meanwhile the average wage in 1970 was $10,000 and today is $78,000 which is an increase of 3.75%. Wages have not kept up with the cost of housing or the inflation rate for the past 50 years. This is why the low- and middle-income groups have suffered and the main reason for this is the loss of manufacturing jobs. During this time the top one percent saw their income rise by 7%. The globalization that occurred during this time, was beneficial to the rich, as corporations made huge profits by producing cheap products overseas, at the expense of good jobs in the US. Politicians in both parties ignored the working people during these years.
Sunday, July 13, 2025
Epstein
A good metaphor for the Jeffrey Epstein case is where there is smoke there’s fire but in a twisted sort of way. The smoke is the sex trafficking but the fire is espionage. The titillating part is always the sex but behind that, is the working arrangements between governments and criminals. This goes back to WW 2 where the FBI cooperated with the Mafia to uncover German spies. Agencies like the CIA, the British MI 5 and the Mossad are involved in illegal activities that they want to remain quiet. J Egar Hoover was the master at this. He kept secrets on people so that he could control their behavior. Just two years ago Senator Schumer said, “Let me tell you, you take on the intelligence community, they have six ways from Sunday of getting back at you”. Even US senators know their place.
Thursday, July 10, 2025
The new way of learning
For about the last 50 years US schools have been in decline. This is demonstrated by the reading and writing skills, where twelfth grader students are at eighth grade levels. The search for the solution to these problems has abruptly come to an end with AI. Here is a report from a student. I was asked to write a 300 word essay on Beethoven’s Fifth and instructed the Chat GPT to do just that. When the essay was complete, I rewrote the first two paragraphs using my style and then instructed Chat to review what I had written and rewrite the rest of the essay using my style. While students still have to learn how to read, they can let AI do the writing. When it comes to math students no longer have to learn the old fashion way, they can use calculators to solve most everyday problems, such as interest rates and time value of money. It is mindful of a pill one can take to immediately play the piano instead of spending years practicing. I would gladly take such a pill. Will I receive the same satisfaction from playing as someone who learned the old way? Don’t know the answer to that but don’t care as long as I can play the piano.
Apple
Shortly after China joined the WTO in 2021, Apple began making its new iphones in China. The Chinese offered free land, tax breaks and cheap labor. As time passed Apple invested more than one trillion dollars in China but they were not business partners they were held hostage. China could at any time take away Apple’s export license and put them out of business. Apple realized they were in an untenable position and needed a way out and along comes Trump, who threatened to put high import taxes on products from China. As Apple begins shifting iphone production to India and Vietnam, it is spending $500 billion on new manufacturing facilities in the US. China responded by placing export restrictions on Apple but the die is cast. Apple will, over time, decouple from China and many other companies are doing the same.
Democrats
Back in the 50’s the democratic party was composed of different groups including organized labor, ethnic minorities, Catholics, Jews and educators. These were considered working people. It was FDR who started the ball rolling with the New Deal toward protecting these working groups and LBJ continued with the Great Society. This was an effective strategy and the democrats controlled the congress for 65 years from 1930 until 1995 and the senate for most of those years. Things began to change over the past 30 years and that change accelerated in the Trump era. The democrats with all their power moved too far left especially with cultural issues and the working groups moved toward the conservatives. Today the democratic party is trying to move back toward the center with policies but the far left is holding on to power using emotional issues. Instead of concentrating on economic issues the left is swallowed up with anti-Trump feelings. He is a dictator who will end democracy. He is a racist, homophobic, xenophobic man who hates women. The new leaders like AOC and Mamdani are all about emotion and very little about policy. This anti-Trump policy was tried and 2024 and failed but the hangers on are still in control. If this continues the party will stand for nothing when Trump leaves office. Some new leader who is offering policy changes to help the working people must step forward. The old standby of income redistribution will be a good start but it cannot be bogged down with cultural issues.
Wednesday, July 9, 2025
Benefits
The income gap in the US is far too wide and getting wider. Most of the discussion revolves around increasing taxes on the rich and increasing public assistance on the poor. Another possibility is to look at the situation from the standpoint of a working person. Take the case of a single mom with two kids working full time at Walmart. Her wage is $18 per hour plus benefits. As head of household, she qualifies for $4,500 earned income tax credit, $4,500 child tax credit and $3,000 childcare credit. Her total income is $50,000. If her salary were $25 per hour instead of $18, she could pay for all these benefits without having to rely on public assistance. She owes no income tax but does pay $3,800 in payroll tax. The government could pass a law exempting the first $50,000 from payroll tax and she would have $50,000 take home pay. In this way she understands that she is paying her own way and not dependent on government aid.
Monday, July 7, 2025
Remembrance
Today marks two years since Eunice died. At first things were cloudy and the words of a song drifted through my mind.
The house is quiet since you left me, there’s no love within its walls, only the lonesome sound of empty into the silence falls, other men can lose a lover, bounce back like a rubber ball, I’m just not like those others, I’m just not coping well at all.
The following spring, I went back to work as a sub but an eye problem caused me to resign in the fall.
Then I remembered a line from the movie, Shawshank Redemption, where the man said, you either get busy living or get busy dying so I joined a book club. Next, I joined a group where people had lost a spouse and then a group where people had spouses with dementia. Next a group of grandpas who meet every day for coffee and then I started going to the nursing home. I told the residence that I needed their help to get past my empty house.
I go to my daughter’s house for Sunday brunch. I now realize that God was watching over me in those last years and how He is guiding me today. I guess you might say, that I have decided to get busy living.
Sunday, July 6, 2025
Free stuff
The NYC mayoral candidate Mamdani has pointed out the wide income and wealth gap and suggested that no one needs more than one billion dollars per year. While his complaint about inequality is valid his solution is not the panacea that he portrays. In NYC there are 123 billionaires with a total worth of $759 billion. If you took all of that money and gave it equally to the 8.25 million residents of NYC, they would each get $82,300. Understand this is not just their income it is their total worth. Then want would you do next year. Everyone is aware of the wealth gap but the fact is there are always too few rich and too many poor to just evenly divvy up the cash. This kind of talk while not effectively solving the problem sounds great on the campaign stump speech. The math doesn’t work out but it gives the impression that something is being done to help the poor at the expense of the rich. Mamdani has offered many benefits and when asked how he would pay for them, his pat answer is tax the rich. This is the standard approach when pushing socialism. It has been tried many times but always fell short of the promises. Like Margaret Thatcher said, socialism works well until you run out of the other guy’s money. Or more clearly as stated in Orwell’s book Animal Farm when he says, everyone is equal but some are more equal. Beware of Greeks bearing gifts.
Jews
In the news yesterday Trump was criticized for using the term shylock. This is considered antisemitic based on the character in a Shakespear play who loaned money at interest. For most of the history of Christianity, led by the Roman Catholic Church, lending money at interest was forbidden. Jews were allowed to charge interest on money loaned to non-Jews. During the first 1,500 hundred years of Christianity most people were illiterate with the priest being the exception. The Jews, on the other hand, taught their sons to read and write. As the only members of the community who were literate and could lend money at interest, it was not unexpected that the Jews would become bankers. This led to jealousy among the general public toward the Jews, much of which is alive and well today.
Free press
There are many examples of how the press has drifted from its primary goal as watch dog but there is one area where it has been doing an outstanding job and that is its attention to Trump. The press is often criticized for its attacks on Trump but that is because they have singled out this president. If they maintained this kind of scrutiny on all presidents the press would be seen as performing their obligation and not as biased. There have been too many examples of pushing an agenda as opposed to just informing the public. For this reason, the press has lost credibility. Polls show that trust in the media is at an all-time low of 31%. While most Americans recognize the importance of a free press to society, there are also worries about bias and the spread of misinformation.
Friday, July 4, 2025
Social security tax
The big new bill has a tax savings provision for retirees over age 65. Under the present law a couple with $24,000 social security on the husband and $12,000 on the wife plus $32,000 of taxable pension income will have $8,000 in taxable income. Under the new big bill, the taxable income will be reduced to $2,000. This is a help for low- and middle-income people but it is phased out for those with higher incomes.
Taxes
The US has the most progressive income tax in the world. Progressive meaning as you earn more the percent in tax you pay increases. For example. A single person earning $50,000 gross will pay $3,871 in federal income tax. A single person earning $500,000 per year will pay $144,546 in federal tax. The income is ten times higher but the tax is 38 times higher. Under the new big bill, a family of four could earn $78,000 and pay zero income tax. About half of the workers pay no income tax but they do pay payroll tax (social security and Medicare)
Thursday, July 3, 2025
National debt
The pending passage of the big new bill has once again brought the debt into focus. The democrats spend a lot of time pointing out how the bill will increase the debt, already at $37 trillion. When the democrats spend money, the republicans complain vociferously and predict the end of the world. Any casual observer, quickly comes to the conclusion, that neither party is really concerned about the debt, because they both use deficit spending to get votes, which is far more important than the national debt. No individual or group wants to lose their tax advantage. Businesses love accelerated depreciation, home owners love interest deductions, poor people love the safety net and rich people love off shore accounts. It all comes down to the old adage, don’t tax you and don’t tax me, tax the man behind the tree. People don’t have the maturity to give up their tax breaks and elected officials don’t have the courage to ask them to. The only reasonable way to lower the debt, is to reverse the process that created the debt and this is to limit future spending, to slightly less than the annual inflation rate. In 75 years or so the debt will be paid. Can this be done, yes. Will this be done, not likely.
NYC Election
The recent vote for mayor in NYC confirmed the electorate split as seen in the 2024 presidential race. Zohran Mamdani received strong support from White college educated people, especially women and Asians while he lost the support of Blacks, Latinos and working people. His promises of free stuff for poor and middle-income people did not result in votes. This is called the Trump effect by some but others say it is the result of backlash against Palestinian protesters as only 20% of Jews voted for Mamdani. Others were concerned about his antipolice rhetoric along with his weak on crime policy. Mamdani won the votes of higher income people many of whom voted in a low turnout election.
Wednesday, July 2, 2025
Health cost
The cost of Medicare Part B is $180 per month. This is up from the $3 per month cost when Medicare started in 1966. This is an annual increase of 7% while the inflation rate during this time period was only 4%. In 1966 Medicare total cost was $3 billion and last year it was $1.15 trillion or annual increase of 10% per year. Obamacare cost $78 billion per year when it started in 2010 and last year the cost was $1.6 trillion or an average increase of 14% per year during a time when inflation increased only 2.5%. These are the reasons why it is necessary to make substantial changes in healthcare cost but no elected officials want to tackle the problem.
Insurance
One of the main concerns with the new big bill is health insurance under Medicaid. The old Medicaid did not cover adults without children but when Obamacare came in this was changed and adults without children qualified like others based on income. There are about 11 million people in this group and under the new bill they will be required to work 80 hours per month in order to maintain their Medicaid coverage. This work could include community service, going to school or engaging in a work program. Many people will opt not to go to work since Obamacare allows for coverage with pre-existing conditions. This means a person can sign up after they have a health problem and get coverage the first day of the following month. This is antithetical to insurance since it allows coverage after the event. A person is diagnosed with cancer on July 15th and they sign up for insurance and they are covered August first. When Obamacare first started in 2010 people who chose not to sign up were penalized and had to pay a penalty of 2.5% of their income when they filed their taxes. This was so unpopular that it was dropped in 2018. Today there are about 26 million people who do not have insurance but could get it if they wanted.
Tuesday, July 1, 2025
Loans
So far, the Trump administration has deported 200,000 illegal migrants
Despite failing to deliver his promise for broad student loan forgiveness, President Joe Biden has now overseen the cancellation of student loans for more than 5 million Americans — more than any other president in U.S. history.
Biden v. Nebraska: In 2023, the U.S. Supreme Court, in a 6-3 decision, struck down the Biden administration's earlier student loan forgiveness plan, citing an overreach of executive authority and lack of clear congressional authorization.
These students will not have to back this $175 billion.
Presidents have used executive power for decisions that were later called illegal by the Supreme Court but there is no going back so the president wins.
Wealthy
The new mayoral candidate in NYC says there should be no billionaires.
As of late 2024, 813 U.S. billionaires held a combined wealth of $6.72 trillion.
There are 150 million working families in the US and if this money were confiscated by the government and given to the working families, they would each get $45,000. While this would be a banner year for these families what happens next.
It is like Margaret Thatcher said, socialism is great until you run out of the other guy’s money. Throughout history the concept of redistribution has been a theme of governments and each, including present day USA, has developed various means to equalize income and wealth. The wealth distribution in today’s USA is too large and some measures must be taken but just grabbing the assets from the rich is not the way to go. Increasing income tax rates and providing benefits for low-income people would be more acceptable. Using things like surtax and child tax credits would be a more balanced approach.
Income gap
Wealth and income inequality in the US is increasing and many feel this must change. Several approaches at attacking the wealth problem have come and gone because they are too difficult to calculate but income is a different story. The new NYC mayor candidate has proposed a surtax on income. This is easy to calculate and enforce. He is recommending 2% surtax on all income over one million. Massachusetts enacted a similar plan in 2023 using four percent. This kind of tax could be used to slow the growth in the income gap. It could be raised year by year until the gap stops increasing.
Between 2020 and 2022, the number of tax returns in the U.S. with a gross adjusted income of at least $1 million increased by about 30%.
Callifornia
California has a state budget of $321 billion and a $73 billion deficit.
Texas has a $338 billion budget and a $24 billion surplus
California has a top state income tax rate of 12.3 while Texas has no state income tax
California has a 7.15% state sales tax and Texas is at 6.5%.
California gets 50% of its budget from the federal government and Texas gets 38%
California’s population has been declining since 2021 while Texas has added more people than any state. Last year the population increased by 563,000.
One of the main reasons for this discrepancy is that California relies heavily on income tax from very rich people, mostly in Silicon Valley, while Texas has a more diverse economy and relies more on sales tax.
Adding to the problem is California’s $1.5 trillion pension debt obligations vs Texas with only $86 billion.
Monday, June 30, 2025
Peace
In normal times history moves at a slow pace but since the attack on Israel by Hamas on October 7, 2023 things have happened at warp speed. First off Israel retaliated by invading Gaza. Second, they used exploding cell phones to take out the leadership of Hezbollah, and third they destroyed the left-over military equipment that remained in Syria. This then allowed Israel to fly over Syria unopposed which allowed them to achieve air superiority over all four areas, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Iran. When Israel attacked Iran neither Russia or China came to their aide destroying the threat of the axis against the US which was supposed to be a joining of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. In less than two years Israel has gone from a country surrounded by enemies where Israel was on the defense to a country that is now on the offence and in control of its former enemies. The news about Iran rebuilding their nuclear facilities is counter balanced by Israel’s ability to quickly destroy any perceived threat. This opens the door to the possibility of major changes in the Middle East. If Saudi Arabia joins the Abraham Accords it will allow the oil rich Arab countries to join with Egypt and Jorden in relations with Israel and the long awaited peace may arrive.
Sunday, June 29, 2025
Racism
Racism is still around in America but in certain ways it is not discussed. One area is eugenics. This is tinkering with the human genome to produce only acceptable offspring avoiding those considered inferior. Eugenics was used in the early 20th century to limit the number of Blacks. While this practice never gained much traction, it was later introduced under a different name. In 1973, abortion was legalized in the US and this led to 63 million abortions. While Black women represent only 7% of the population, they had 40% of the abortions, which was in fact, the goal of eugenics. Another example is social security. A Black man starting social security at age 62 will collect on average 15 years, while a White female starting at age 62 will collect for 23 years.
Saturday, June 28, 2025
Socialist
Two of the biggest problems in the US are the wealth and income gap and the education gap. The new controversial NYC mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani is tackling the wealth gap. Here are his policies and they represent a reasonable approach to closing the gap. It is basically a income redistribution plan or the pejorative tax and spend plan.
Freezing rents and constructing new low-income housing
Free public transportation
Increase public safety by building mental health facilities
City owned grocery stores
Free childcare up to age 6
Equal distribution of funds to city schools
Increase taxes on rich and raising the state corporate tax to 11%
Resist and respond to Trump policies
Minimum wage to $30
Thursday, June 26, 2025
Iran enrichment
Here is a quote from google AI:
There is no definitive consensus that Iran is currently building a nuclear bomb, but its nuclear program has significantly advanced and is a source of international concern.
Here are some recent news reports.
Iran possesses uranium enriched to 60%. This level of enrichment is a significant step towards weapons-grade uranium, which is typically enriched to 90%
Uranium used for nuclear power plants is enriched from .7% to 3.5%.
Under the terms of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), to which Iran is a party, Iran has the right to develop and use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes without discrimination.
Iran has 3,000 centrifuges underground.
Criminals
It appears that sanctuary cities in the US are using tactics similar to what Hamas used in Gaza. Recall that Hamas fighters intermingled with the general population to make it difficult for Israel to kill them without killing innocent civilians. The mayors of sanctuary cities, instead of holding convicted migrant criminals in jail and turning them over to ICE, have chosen to release them into the general public, to make it difficult for ICE to arrest convicted criminals, without arresting migrants without criminal records. This thwarts the plan to go after convicted criminals first. It is a very effective strategy. Only five percent of the estimated 10 million illegals that came in under Biden are considered convicted criminals and it appears that five percent of those arrested are convicted criminals. This is what is expected in random arrest. According to Pew Research:
U.S. adults who say some immigrants living in the country illegally should be deported have varying views of who should be removed. Nearly all (97%) support deporting those who have committed violent crimes.
In FY23, ICE arrested 73,822 noncitizens with criminal histories, including charges and convictions for assaults, sex and sexual assaults, weapons offenses, homicides, and kidnapping offenses.
More than 13,000 immigrants convicted of homicide are living outside of ICE detention in the U.S.
A reasonable approach would be to deport criminal migrants, then simultaneously find the 300,000 missing migrant children while and setting up work permits for the non-criminal migrants.
Wednesday, June 25, 2025
Europe
In the news today the European Countries have agreed to increase their defense spending which means they will not have to rely on the US for their protection. In 2023 with a population similar to that of the US they spent $280 billion on defense while the US spent $750 billion. At this point it is only talk but if this comes to fruition it can mean substantial saving for the US.
Citizens
For several months the word oligarch was championed as representing the Trump administration but after the falling out with Musk the word fell out of usage. The idea was that republicans were using wealthy people to buy elections but the facts tell a different story. In the 2020 election the Democrats raised $2.9 billion while the Republicans took in $1.8 billion. Who did the oligarchs support? 83 billionaires gave to the Democrats and 52 backed Republicans. When the Court approved Citizens United by saying the money was speech, the Democrats said this would skew elections but the results favored the Dems.
NYC
The surprise victory by Democratic Socialist mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani portends the distribution of wealth for the city. This will portray NYC as a smaller version of California. In California the rich people, mostly from Silicon Valley, represent .5% of the population and they pay 40% of the taxes. In NYC the new mayor will go after the rich on Wall Street to pay for increased social benefits for the not so rich. This transfer of wealth is an honorable goal but all too often results in money going in to unexpected areas. This is known as waste and fraud. One example surfaced during the last mayor when over one billion dollars were assigned to the mayor’s wife in a program called ThriveNYC and much of the money was left in limbo.
ThriveNYC was accused of having an "opaque budget" and "elusive metrics"
In March of 2019, after four years as mayor, nearly $850 million was unaccounted for
Mamdani has said he will fund his promised services by raising an extra $10 billion in city revenue by raising taxes on corporations and the top 1% wealthiest New Yorkers.
This is one way to close the wealth and income gap. Let’s see how it works.
Tuesday, June 24, 2025
The Constitution
The constitution is enforced by the separation of powers which offers checks and balances between the supreme court, the president and the congress. Recently this has come under question as a number of lower court judges have stopped the presidents’ executive actions. Yesterday the Supreme Court overruled a lower court decision to stop third country deportations. Before that the Court reversed the lower court on deportations to safe countries and earlier the Court ended temporary protection status and pausing humanitarian programs. Before that the Court stepped in on federal employee firings, teacher training grants and DOGE access to records. Some of these cases are regarding to temporary restraining orders and may require further rulings but they are road blocks to presidential power. There are more than 1,000 judges who could be issuing injunctions against the president and some scholars express concern that this kind of activity, if it continues, could tie up the president in the courts much like happened in Trumps first term. The country is already stymied by gridlock and this will pit the president against the federal courts. If the 2026 elections put the democrats back in control of the house, then the congress will be investigating the president on a continuous basis and the whole government will be brought to a standstill. For many who are anti government this will be acceptable.
Sunday, June 22, 2025
Bomb
Natural uranium ore is only .7% U235 and this needs to be enriched to 90% to make a bomb. The enrichment process is not linear since it takes more time to enrich from .7% to 5% than it does to enrich from 5% to 90%. This is why Iran with 60% enriched Uranium is close to what is needed for a bomb.
Women
Over the past three hundred years the world has seen the industrial revolution, the communication revolution and now the information revolution but in the mean while the women’s revolution has been ongoing without much fanfare. The progress made by women during these years is nothing less than phenomenal and most of their gains have occurred in the past one hundred years beginning with the right to vote in 2020. Last year 54% of all PhD’s were granted to women. Fifty years ago, there were ten women in congress and today there are 150. While this trend continues in many areas, one of the most noticeable is the number of women in the health field. This is progress but much more is needed as the revolution
Iran
Across three decades and six presidential administrations, Democratic and Republican alike, one national security principle has never changed: The United States will not allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon. The use of military force to carry out this pledge has been pushed down the road until now. What lies ahead is unknown.
Propaganda
Propaganda is the dissemination of information, often biased or misleading, to promote a specific agenda or viewpoint. It aims to influence opinions, beliefs, or behaviors by appealing to emotions and potentially distorting facts. This is a good definition of what the news is today. In a typical broadcast the moderator interviews two opposing opinions which means hearing two sets of propaganda. This is much easier and cheaper than asking a reporter to go out and dig up the facts, then digest these facts and then presenting them. What the viewer is not aware of is that these experts offering their opinions have been influenced, either knowingly or unknowingly, by powerful self interest groups. These groups often spend lots of money to promote their interest. One obvious group are the lobbyist while others are corporate manipulators. Back in the 50’s there were reporters like Robert Novak or Rowland Evans who focused on digging out the story behind the story.
Focus on Scoops and News: Novak, along with his writing partner Rowland Evans, made it their goal to include a piece of breaking news in every column, a practice uncommon among most contemporary op-ed writers.
Shoe Leather" Reporting: He was known for his dedication to traditional investigative journalism, often relying on his own detailed research and reporting rather than just opinion or analysis.
The key phrase here is, “Shoe Leather”. This requires a lot of work and dedication whereas just interviewing experts is the easy way out. The public is thus left with the choice of which expert to believe. All too often experts lack the common sense that most people acquire through the school of hard knocks. Book smart is deemed more important than street smart or people smart. The longer one lives the more it becomes clear that book smart is not enough.
Thursday, June 19, 2025
Trump Iran
There are two cliches on a collision course but with the proper handling can be resolved. The first, says regarding regime change, if you break it, you own it. This is in reference to what happened in Afghanistan. The world demanded that since the US went in, they were obligated to fix things. The second is that those who fail to understand history will repeat past mistakes. The situation in Iran will be different because of Trump. If Trump choses to take out the nuclear program and the regime responds by attacking US facilities in the area or even using terrorism within the US, Trump will respond by using air strikes but he will not send in US troops. If the regime is overthrown and chaos breaks out in Iran, Trump will not send in US ground troops. If Iran turns into a civil war or if terror groups set up business in Iran, Trump will not send in US troops. That is the difference between Iran in 2025 and Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq. There will be no nation building. There will be no Americans on the ground trying to democratize the country. The US has learned from past wars that it is futile to try and rebuild by trying to make some other country into a new USA.
Wednesday, June 18, 2025
Courts
Under current law a single federal judge can stop the president. The Supreme Court is reviewing this.
Federal Court System: The U.S. judicial system includes district courts (trial courts), where a single federal judge often hears cases. These judges have the power to:
Issue injunctions (orders to stop an action),
Declare actions unconstitutional, and
Temporarily block executive orders or regulations while a case is being reviewed.
There have been many recent examples of this and the Supreme Court stepped in to reverse the lower courts. Since 2007 the court has reversed decisions 71.3% of the time. Even though this seems inefficient the court will likely keep the system as it is.
Iran decision
Because Trump is president, the news is focusing on his decisions about Iran but both parties are concerned.
While many Democrats quickly condemned conservative Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for launching Israel’s assault on Thursday night, many others hailed the decision as a necessary step to put a halt to Tehran’s nuclear expansion.
The majority of both parties agree that Iran should not have a nuclear weapon and that there should be a diplomatic resolution to the problem. Neither of these positions requires any courage. Almost everyone agrees in any situation that a peaceful settlement is better than war. The latest push against war is that congress must decide. This means no decision will be made as 535 people with different opinions hash it out. This is the easy way out for Trump. He can let congress decide. Most will quietly wait for Trump to take action and then Monday morning quarterback the results. As Truman said, the buck stops here.
Tuesday, June 17, 2025
Iran
The situation in Iran is coming to a head. Ever since the country became a theocracy after the 1979 revolution, the drum beat from Iran has been to slay the great Satan, the USA and the lesser Satan Israel. They have publicly announced many times over the years that their goal is to destroy Israel and the US.
As Israel winds down the war and Iran is defeated the big question is then what. If the nuclear threat is eliminated but the country’s ideology remains, it is just a matter of time before they start once again on their journey to, as they say, wipe Israel off the map. Some say this can be minimized by having complete and open inspections but in the past this sort of thing has been eroded by various political maneuvers.
Others say to promote a regime change but this leaves the door open to the unknown. When the Shah was removed in 1979 the country became the theocracy it is today. A new government may be worse. Some fear, that if the government is removed, the resulting chaos will allow terror groups to develop within the country, much like happened in Afghanistan after the USSR left.
The point is that regardless of what path is chosen there are risk. What should be considered first and foremost is the path that least involves the US. Right now, that looks like destroying the nuclear infrastructure and then eliminating the existing government and then closely monitoring the aftermath.
The Shah’s government could have been successful if it were not for the corruption. The US knew of this corruption for years but took no action to intervene. It was easier to kick the can down the road until the people finally rose up and the Shah fled.
SALT
The argument going on in congress regarding the State and Local Tax Deduction (SALT) has a misleading past. Prior to 2018 the SALT was offset by the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT). The Trump tax cuts of 2017 removed the AMT and placed a $10,000 limit on SALT. This allowed wealthy people to once again deduct their state and local tax but only up to $10,000. The house bill raised this to $40,000 with a phase out for people with incomes over $500,000. The senate version keeps the SALT limit at $10,000. The SALT benefits a small number of rich people since they pay the highest state income tax and 90% of tax payers use the standard deduction which means the SALT does not affect them.
Monday, June 16, 2025
Iran money
Obama released $100 billion in Iranian frozen assets and then sent $1.7 billion in cash. Biden unfroze $6 billion of Iranian funds. These were intended to get Iran to agree to a deal to stop its push for a nuclear bomb. No one knows what this money was used for but last week
The UN-backed atomic watchdog passed a resolution on Thursday declaring that Iran is not complying with its obligations regarding nuclear non-proliferation.
While there is no evidence that Iran used these funds to send weapons to Hezbollah some feel this was a strong possibility. It could be that these funds were not used but money is fungible.
Sunday, June 15, 2025
SDI
As the world watches the anti-missiles knock down the missiles over the skies of Israel some recall how Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) was ridiculed and called Star Wars.
The media: Various media outlets, including the New York Times, mocked SDI, with some labeling it as an expression of "anti-Communist paranoia" and a "convergence of political crisis and scientific hubris".
Various media outlets, including the New York Times, mocked SDI, with some labeling it as an expression of "anti-Communist paranoia" and a "convergence of political crisis and scientific hubris".
US caretakers
As WW 2 came to a close, the US stepped up to rebuild Germany and Japan and today they are among the top economic powers in the world but the job did not end there. Up to and including today the US has been the protector of Europe and Japan with military bases around the world. The US disproportionally finances the defense of these countries along with the United Nations and NATO. It is the US pharmaceutical industry that provides the world with the latest medical miracles and US innovation leads to the technology of the future. In return these countries have put up trade barriers against US products. While the US is teeming with German and Japanese cars there are very few American cars in Europe or Japan. Both Japan and Germany are in decline because they have too many elderly and not enough working age people. The middle age group is not only the producers but the consumers and both countries need the US consumer to survive. Japan was the first to realize this and set an economy based on producing and selling products in the USA and using the profits to care for their older people. Europe will have to do the same and once again the US will be called upon to rescue the world. It will mean higher prices for the US consumer but they will, as always, stand up to the challenge.
ROE
Israel is fighting a war using the same limitations that the US used in recent wars. The US soldiers were to follow Rules of Engagement (ROE) which placed restrictions on their conduct. Israel is bombing nuclear and missile launching facilities while taking precaution to minimize civilian collateral damage. Iran is targeting civilians. For some this does not make sense, as they believe that if you are going to war, then go to win or don’t go. Veterans from Korea onward often talk about how they were limited by the ROE. In WW 2 the US deliberately bombed cities with the sole purpose of killing civilians. The idea was to win by demoralizing the people.
Saturday, June 14, 2025
Platform
The democrats are losing the male vote especially the blue-collar workers. In an attempt to reverse the trend, the party has formed the Speaking with American Men (SAM) project. The $20 million dollar plan got rolling with a meeting at the Ritz-Carlson in wealthy Half Moon Bay. On the menu was short-rib tostones, mini lobster rolls, beef tenderloin and other expensive hors d’oeuvres. While this hardly relates to the working man the interesting thing discussed was how to be authentic. They were looking for a liberal leaning Joe Rogan.
Developing authenticity starts with getting to know yourself better. Here's how you can do it: Spend time reflecting on your core values — the things that are most important to you in life. These might include qualities like honesty, creativity, or compassion.
To do this the party will have to move away from dissing Trump and lay down a basic platform of ideas and how they will be implemented. They can then go on the offense promoting their plans to grow the economy.
Deportations
President Obama used an executive order to expand Expedited Removal and stopped illegal migrants at the border and turned them around. He also used this to deport illegal migrants in the country. In both cases this was done without the courts determining asylum status. The Trump administration continued the process but slowed the border crossings. Under President Biden border crossings rose to record levels and when Trump took over in his second term the crossings were brought down to almost zero.
Shift from Judicial to Non-Judicial: The US deportation system has seen a shift over time, moving away from a predominantly judicial process (prior to 1996) to one with more non-judicial removals.
U.S. immigration courts are facing a significant backlog, with TRAC reporting over 3.6 million open cases. This backlog leads to substantial delays in processing cases, with average wait times exceeding nearly 670 days.
As of July 2024, there were 425,431 non-citizens with criminal convictions on ICE's "non-detained docket" - a database of people facing deportation proceedings but who are not held in ICE custody.
Without using non-judicial methods these deportations will take many years.
Friday, June 13, 2025
Putin war
As the war in Ukraine drags on, Russia moves to a more powerful negotiating position. Right after the start of the war Putin was ready to accept a peace by guaranteeing that Ukraine would not be allowed to join NATO and keeping Crimea. As the war progressed Putin wanted the Donbas region along with the no NATO pledge. Today he wants both plus some say in how the new government will be organized. Meanwhile Ukraine is slowly being destroyed as their people flee the country while death and injury is inflicted on the soldiers.
Candidates
As democratic wannabe presidential candidates seek public attention, a common theme is evolving vary much in line with the Trump approach. Trump came on the scene as a political unknown and immediately set about getting his name in lights by making very politically incorrect statements. This kind of behavior lit up the clicks and places like Morning Joe would delight when Trump called. He was a laughing stock but in the end he got the last laugh. Recently Senator Chris Van Hollen went to El Salvador to interview a deported migrant. California Governor Gavin Newsom interviews conservatives on his pod cast then reverts back to the far-left defending protestors. Penn Senator Fetterman is pushing back on the left. Congresswoman Cortez is pushing the far-left ideas of Bernie Sanders. California Senator Alex Padilla interrupts a meeting by Christi Noem. It remains to be seen if they, like Trump, can hold on to their basic beliefs. Can they be pragmatic instead of ideological? Trump can be conservative on some issues and liberal on others and this is how most voters see the country.
Wednesday, June 11, 2025
GDP
When countries measure growth using GDP, they distort the lives of individuals. One easy way to raise GDP is to bring in immigrants. For example. In 2000 the GDP of Germany was $1.7 trillion but in 2024 it had risen to $5.7 trillion which signifies significant growth. However, when measuring GDP per capita a very different picture appears. The GDP per capita in 2000 was $59,000 and in 2024 it was $54,000. While the country grew at a solid rate, individual growth was stagnant. In the past 24 years Germany has brought in 23 million immigrants and the total population of the country is 80 million. Germany’s native population declined over these years while the immigrant population increased. The new immigrants did not have the skills to warrant higher wages and were far less productive than the native Germans. Just using GDP does not give an accurate picture of how the average person is living.
NATO
NATO was founded in 1949.
NATO, or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, was formed to guarantee the freedom and security of its members through political and military means. Its primary purpose, especially during the Cold War, was to counter the perceived threat from the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact
In 1991 both the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact collapsed and the need for NATO no longer existed. NATO has a budget of $4.7 billion and the US pays 16% even though there are 32 countries involved. In addition, the US supplies 38% of the troops. This is typical of government organizations. Once they are started it is difficult to stop them. Every time a budget item is cut, those who are affected scream the loudest and the squeaky wheel gets the oil. The same thing is happening as DOGE makes cuts in the US budget.
Many people are unaware that Article 5 of the treaty obligates all NATO member to assist any member that is attacked.
If Russia invaded Estonia the US would have to respond. Most Americans could not find Estonia on the map and yet the US may have to defend that country.
Tuesday, June 10, 2025
Motive
It is unwise to impugn motives based on what you think people mean. Terry Moran, a reporter for ABC, lost his job for saying that Steve Miller, a Trump advisor, was filled with hatred. It would have been more effective if the specifics that Moran objected to were revealed.
While the specific actions or comments by Miller that Moran considered hateful are not detailed in the provided search results, the broader context of Moran's remarks suggests they relate to Miller's role as a key player in the Trump administration's immigration policies.
Deportations
On his first day in office President Biden, using executive order, dismantled the Trump immigration program. Later he attempted to codify the new rules using the US Citizenship Act but it failed to pass despite having control of both houses. During his four years in office his executive orders remained in effect and an estimated 10 million illegal migrants entered the country.
Trump promised on the campaign trail this year to conduct a mass deportation of more than 13 million immigrants in the country illegally.
Based on recent reports, Donald Trump's stated goal for deportations in his second administration is to deport all undocumented immigrants in the U.S. illegally, not just criminal migrants, according to Reuters.
Once in office, Trump has targeted migrants with criminal records but since many sanctuary cities and states are releasing these accused criminals into the general public, many non-criminal migrants are being rounded up with the criminals.
Monday, June 9, 2025
Who goes to college
One of the outcomes of universities accepting students based on factors other than academic achievement, is the offering of remedial math classes where students learn algebra that was supposed to be taken in ninth grade. These learning deficiencies are not limited to math.
College professors are reporting that their students are no longer capable of reading or writing the kinds of complex texts that used to be routine assignments. Although there are surely multiple reasons, it’s likely this has something to do with the way we’ve been trying to teach reading comprehension, beginning in elementary school.
Harvard might be America’s most elite university — but now it’s offering remedial math classes.
The school’s math department is providing a new scaled-back math class for freshmen who are apparently arriving on campus lacking “foundational skills” in high school math basics like geometry and algebra.
Sunday, June 8, 2025
Deportations
The Trump administration is accused of deporting migrants before their asylum status has been adjudicated. They are deporting accused criminals without a hearing. The ACLU contends that all migrants are innocent until they have their day in court.
ICE data from July 2024 showed 425,431 non-citizens with criminal convictions on its "non-detained docket," a database of those facing deportation proceedings but not in ICE custody.
There are over one million migrants who have been adjudicated and found not eligible for asylum.
Deportation Orders: An official familiar with internal government data stated in November 2023 that there were 1.3 million people with deportation orders, which includes individuals whose asylum claims have been denied.
If these were ordered for deportation their supporters would claim they are people who have committed no crimes and merely what a chance for freedom.
These things happened in the past without the mass protest of today.
Expedited Removal: The Obama administration utilized expedited removal, a process that allows for rapid deportation without a hearing before an immigration judge.
This gives the impression that this is not an immigration problem but rather a political problem. It appears that the standards change based on who is president.
Manufacturing jobs
In 1950 there were 13 million manufacturing jobs in the US and they peaked at 18.7 million in 1980. If this growth rate had continued there would have been 25 million today but that did not happen. Globalization caused these jobs to move oversea and today we have only 13 million or back to where the country was in 1950. This means a shortage of 12 million manufacturing jobs. Even worse is the fact that over these 45 years the country lost the skilled workers needed to maintain an industrial base.
Money
Senator Sanders and others keep saying that the rich have to pay their fair share but until recently what that means was not discussed. In December of last year Sanders said all income above one billion dollars should be taxed at 100%. This will bring in $260 billion per year assuming that the rich do not find ways to minimize their income above one billion. Currently the top one percent of earners pay 40% of all federal income tax. If all money over one billion is collect the top one percent would pay 50% of all income taxes. The bottom 50% pays 2%. His argument is that anyone should live comfortably on $999 million. Working people would look at this plan and say that one million is more appropriate because people should be able to live on $999,000 per year. Others say that before we start taking money from the billionaires, we should find out what they are doing with their riches. The answer is that they have the same four choices that everyone has. They can give it away, invest it, save it or spend it. It’s not likely that anyone would object to giving it away so that’s out. If they save or invest the money is used to provide loans to grow the economy so that’s not too bad. If they spend it that is where we get them. They don’t need four yachts or five homes or trips around the world twice per year. Perhaps it would be better to find ways to bring up the bottom instead of bringing down the top and there are many things that can accomplish that.
Saturday, June 7, 2025
War
As the people read the reports concerning the Ukraine War, it is time to review the way the government reported on the Vietnam War. In 1971 the Pentagon Papers, a classified study of decision-making about Vietnam, were leaked and published. The explosive Papers showed that the US government had systematically lied about the reality that the US was losing the war. Even after this exposure, it still took four years to end the war. The power of the military industrial complex refused to end the gravy train of profits trading the lives of American soldiers to produce more weapons. Some suggest that the same groups are sacrificing the lives of Russian and Ukrainian soldiers. Just as happened in the Vietnam war, the American people are slowly tiring and in time will turn against the war. In the meantime, many more soldiers will die. It took 20 years to admit that Afghanistan was a mistake.
Delegation
Many people marvel at Trump’s unending energy and his ability to talk openly about a multitude of issues. The phase often heard is when does he sleep. Trump is a business man and operates as such. In a corporation the president sets the policy and all the vice-presidents carry out the policy. If they disagree with the policy, they may express their disagreements in private and if they cannot be resolved, they resign. Trump sees cabinet members as vice-presidents and demands they follow the policies that he lays out. Since he has trusted allies in the cabinet, he is comfortable in delegating responsibility to them on important issues. He then watches carefully and steps in when anyone deviates from his policy. As president he reports to the voters just as a company president reports to the stockholders. In Trump’s case he is not concerned with reelection so his main interest is leaving the country in better shape than he found it. How he does this should be challenged by the press.
Journalism
Jake Tapper, the author of the new best-selling book about President Bidens cognitive issues, was being interviewed on PBS and when asked what was the most important thing he learned from this experience, he responded by saying. I learned that you cannot trust what the people in power tell you. This is a man who has spent 30 years as a journalist and he is just finding out that people in power will lie to keep their power. The first day in journalism school all students are told that you cannot trust the government. The problem evolved overtime as the elite journalist started living together in Washington DC and they went to the same parties, their kids went to the same schools and in many cases, they intermarried politician to journalist. In order to maintain their status within the group they sacrificed their skepticism. In some weird and unexpected way, Trump may revitalize the journalism business by reawaking their responsibility to challenge the government at every junction. The past and recent history is replete with examples of government lies. One of the fundamental principals protecting the constitution is the free press. Over the years the press has slowly aligned itself with the democratic party and this is a threat to democracy. Hopefully recent events will remind them the both parties cannot be trusted.
Friday, June 6, 2025
Tax credits
One of the tax credits that would end under the new proposals is the $30,000 tax credit for installing solar panels in your home. This credit is nonrefundable meaning you must owe that much tax to deduct. Typically, you have to spend $60,000 to get the full credit. Most working people do not have the $60,000 and only a small percentage of tax payers owe enough tax to earn the credit. A married couple would have to earn $200,000 gross to owe $30,000 in tax and that eliminates 86% of taxpayers. Another advantage of installing solar panels is that the excess power produced is sold back to the power company which means the company must increase rates on the others to cover the cost. This benefit helps the rich at the expense of the poor.
The $7,500 tax credit on EV’s is another benefit for the rich. The average EV cost $55,000 which means they are out of the budget for poor people. About 90% of the 300,000 EV’s purchased took the tax credit. Even if a lower income person purchased an EV they would probably not earn enough income to get the credit.
Another part of the bill makes able bodied single people no longer eligible for Obamacare unless they work at least 20 hours per week. Estimates are that 5 million fall into this category.
The bill cuts the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), formerly known as food stamps by 30%. In 2024 the SNAP program cost the government $100 billion to provide and average cash benefit of $212 per month to 42 million participants. This will be reduced to $148 per month. Able bodies people are required to work 20 hours per week to qualify.
The bill increases the child tax credit from $2,000 to $2,500. Removes taxes from TIPS and overtime. Adds $4,000 to the tax deduction for seniors making less than $75,000.
Allows deduction of car loan interest but since most people owe very little tax this will help the rich much like the home interest deduction.
Thursday, June 5, 2025
Status quo
When George Wallace ran for president in 1968, he famously said, there’s not a dimes worth of difference between the republicans and democrats. He was talking about the establishment which includes business, military and bureaucracy. He knew that these groups would continue to hold power regardless of which party is in the majority. When Trump decided to run in 2015, he was well aware of how the system worked and knew his only chance was to run against the status quo. He was tolerated at the start as a person who had no chance to win but when he started to gain momentum the insiders got alarmed and set out to destroy him. They have continued down that path ever since. Even during the Biden years, the attacks on Trump kept coming and now that he has the working people coming around, he represents and even bigger threat to the establishment, a group that included working people in name only. Trump faces a herculean task so he is attacking his enemy’s group by group. He first went after the press and next discombobulated the republicans and followed that up by getting the democrats to fight among themselves. His tariffs ignored the pleas of the business world, his disdain for the UN and NATO disrupted foreign policy and now he’s zeroing in on universities.
Unity
Starting in the 1950’s and growing in the 1960’s there was a push to unify the country. The civil rights bill accelerated the idea and the acceptance of mixed marriages increased from 4% in 1958 to 94% in 2021. There was a 25-year period where this unity continued to expand. Then things began to change in the late 1980’s starting with the idea of identity politics and the push for unity went out the window.
Identity politics is a tendency for people of a particular group to form exclusive political alliances, moving away from traditional broad based party politics.
Next streets and buildings were renamed and statues were torn down. This led to cries of defund the police. CRT came in the schools followed by DEI in businesses. People could change genders just by announcing. This led to transmen in women’s private places and gender surgery on children, sometimes without the parents’ knowledge. Teachers were keeping secrets from parents. He and she became they and them.
These changes came too fast and around 2015 the people said they had had enough and now the pendulum is swinging back. The move is toward what is called, common sense.
Solar panels
The US installed 150 million solar panels but only 7 million were made in the US. The rest were imported, primarily from China. The EPA estimates that the US could have one million tons of solar panel waste by 2030 and 60 million tons by 2050. In contrast the US produced 2000 tons of nuclear waste in 2024. Most of the solar panel waste is burned or buried. Solar panel waste contains hazardous materials like lead, cadmium, silver, arsenic and selenium. The problem is even more severe with wind mills disposal but very little is in the news.
Wednesday, June 4, 2025
Generals
Is there room to cut the defense budget without risking our safety. The same thing that happened to administrators in schools has happened in the military. Today we have 1.2 million people in the military and we have 43 four-star generals and admirals. During WW 2 we had 12 million under arms and 7 four-star generals.
Ideas
Thomas Sowell, a well-known economist, says he started out as a Marxist and ended up a conservative. It follows the old adage that if you not a liberal when you are young, you have no heart and if you are not a conservative when you are old, you have no brain. Sowell enhances that concept by saying that the reason intellectuals are liberal is that they are all about ideas. It is when you go to put your ideas into practice, in the so-called real world, that you become a conservative. The liberals are the thinkers and the conservatives are the doers. This can be seen in ordinary people as well as new comers in the political arena. It is a lot easier to come up with a good idea than it is to implement the idea. A new idea may be judged on its merit at the start but it is soon engulfed in the viewpoints of many different people who all have different backgrounds and many have agendas. All intellectuals in today’s world recognize that the national debt is a problem but they cannot get together to solve the problem because of their competing interest. Even when most involved, agree upon a solution, they cannot implement it for fear that the other side might get the credit.
Child tax fraud
The new republican tax proposal makes changes to the child tax credit. This credit was established in 1997. In 2017(The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act) changes were made that required families to have social security numbers for their children and overnight millions of families were disqualified. Many were collecting for children they did not have. Loss of Eligibility: Some estimates suggest that the changes could affect eligibility for 4.5 million children
The new tax bill will further reduce the number of families eligible for the child tax credit by requiring that both parents have social security numbers.
The proposed tax and spending legislation — which proponents have dubbed the "one big, beautiful bill" — includes a requirement that both a tax filer and the person's spouse have Social Security numbers to claim the Child Tax Credit, or CTC, for their kids. That means children with mixed-status parents, such as one parent who is a U.S. citizen and the second who is not, would no longer qualify for the tax credit.
Children who are born in the U.S., making them American citizens, but whose parents are undocumented would also be barred from the CTC. In some cases, one or both parents of a child who is authorized to be in the U.S. may lack a Social Security number. For example, parents who are in the U.S. on non-working visas, such as graduate students on education visas, would be prohibited from receiving the tax credit.
Tuesday, June 3, 2025
Midterms
Back before the 2018 midterms the country was expecting a red wave and when it did not develop the democrats assumed that Biden was OK. It showed that the public felt comfortable with the way things were going. Now as the 2026 midterms approach the democrats will win back the house and then, once again, assume this means voters are happy with their current strategy. Will they believe that the public is satisfied with the cultural issues pushed by the democrats and double down.
Future leaders
As the 2028 election looms on the horizon, the democrats are looking for a viable candidate. Since no one comes to mind perhaps outlining the characteristics and policies of the ideal candidate will bring forth some possible leaders. What kind of person would fill the bill? First on policy. Someone who favors bringing manufacturing jobs back home. Someone who pushes for fair trade. Someone who will deport criminal migrants. Someone who will promote citizenship for non-criminal migrants. Someone who wants a peaceful solution to Ukraine and Gaza. Someone who understands the wealth gap and the education gap. Someone who will explain how nuclear power is the answer to climate change, He must be able to not only present the issues but must have solid solutions. Second on personality. Looking for a white male under age 60 who is a family man. A man whose personal history is not tied to the recently popular cultural ideas. A man who is telegenic with charisma, articulate and authentic and will have the courage to stand up against the far left.
It is not likely that someone will match all of these criteria but whoever comes close will be a strong candidate. The party leaders should add or remove from this list and lay out some criteria for the next leaders.
Medicaid
Changes to Medicaid are in the news. Recall that Obamacare allowed single adults to join Medicaid and there is no precondition clause so these people can wait until the get sick and then sign up and be covered the first day of the following month. The new bill allows these people to remain on Medicaid but all single people without disabilities are required to work 80 hours per month. Since there are help wanted signs at many businesses it will not be too difficult to find a job. The bill also requires states to offer frequent audits to root out waste.
There is a significant amount of waste, fraud, and abuse within the Medicaid program. This includes instances where payments are made incorrectly, or services are provided that are not medically necessary. Estimates suggest billions of dollars are lost annually due to these issues
Sunday, June 1, 2025
College education
Trump half heartedly suggested that the Harvard money would be better utilized by giving it to trade schools.
The shortage of skilled tradesmen in the US is significant, with some sources estimating that over half a million new construction workers are needed annually
The current shortage is only part of the problem. For every five trades people who retire only two are available for replacement. A staggering 2.1 million skilled trades jobs are projected to go unfilled by 2030.
In the 1950’s the big push was for everyone to go to college. Data clearly showed that it was a good investment but today things have changed. Today a cost benefit analysis shows that college is only worth the expense for those majoring in certain disciplines.
It would be wise for young people to investigate various career paths before automatically assuming that college is in their best interest. Questioning the value of a college education has come under scrutiny these past few years and is will continue to be investigated.
Oil production
Biden said:
Oct 24, 2020 — "Climate change is the existential threat to humanity," the former vice president said. "Unchecked, it is going to actually bake this planet.
“It’s the number one issue facing humanity. And it’s the number one issue for me,”
At that time the price of gas was 2.17 per gallon and the US was producing 11.2 million barrels of oil per day. By 2022 gas rose to $3.95 and Biden increased oil production to 13 million gallons per day. Next, he took oil from the reserve to help bring down the price. Many concluded that while climate change was a problem it was not as big a problem as four-dollar gas.
Culture
Why some countries are poor and some are rich is determined by culture. Experts say that all cultures are equal but they offer no proof. They say that poverty is caused by colonialization or slavery and prosperity depends on redistribution or reparations. Behavior imposed from the outside has short term results but changes in behavior caused by changes in culture provide long term benefits. Culture is not just music and art it is the accumulated wisdom passed down including habits, institutions and priorities. It is how children are raised, how success is defined and how failure is handled. Human capital is more important than natural capital. It grows and develops in families where education is important and work ethic is praised. It teaches that long lasting power comes from within and is not bestowed from some outside source. It encourages personal action as opposed to waiting for some outside source to save the day.
TSMC
As China continues to disintegrate and Xi sees his control in jeopardy, the old trick of switching attention away from the problem by starting a war, becomes a possibility. This will force Europe and the US to accelerate the development of high-end chips. Fortunately, Taiwan chip maker TSMC is already building a $165 billion facility in Arizona with production of 4 nanometer chips already underway. This project was encouraged by a $6 billion subsidy from the Chips Act. The race is on for one nanometer chips and this will be part of the Arizona project and quantum computing is not far behind. While the US is moving production in many areas away from China, it would put the US in a bind if China fails too quickly. A peaceful coup of Xi would help.
Saturday, May 31, 2025
OPEC
Lower energy costs have a cascading effect on the economy. The farmer uses diesel to plow, to plant, to cultivate and then send the wheat to the grain elevator. Next it is sent to the flour mill which then forwards to the bakery and finally to the retail outlet. People use gasoline, truckers and rails and ships use diesel and citizens heat and cool their homes while industry uses power to build and operate plants. Electric power from nuclear plants is $32 per megawatt hour and natural gas is $50. The point is that lower cost oil and lower cost electricity means lower cost for goods. Trump is now facing a dilemma. Putin wants to keep the war going which leaves Trump with the only option and that is to sanction Russian oil. This will hurt Putin but it will raise the price of oil since Russia exports 4.5 million barrels per day. Trump could be helped if OPEC would pick up the slack. He has some influence over OPEC since they rely on the US for protection. The question remains, if oil went to $100 would OPEC want to produce more to lower the price.
Harvard
Last year 54,000 students applied to Harvard but only 7,100 were admitted. Of the 27,000 total students both graduate and post graduate about 10,000 are foreign students. Harvard is widely regarded as one of the most prestigious universities in the world. The question then becomes why are foreign students given preference over American students. One answer is that half of the American students get financial aid from Harvard but foreign students pay about $90,000 per year.
The total cost of attendance for an international student, including tuition, fees, housing, food, and other expenses, is estimated to be between $90,426 and $95,426.
More on debt
The average inflation rate since 1950 has been 3.8%. The national debt in 1950 was $250 billion. Today the national debt is $37 trillion. This is an average increase of 6.8% and therein lies the problem. If the government would agree to increase spending at one half percent below the inflation rate the debt would come down each year. The current budget is $6.75 trillion and it that is allowed to increase at the long-term inflation rate of 3.8% the budget in 75 years would be $110 trillion. If spending increases are held to 3.3%, which is one half below the inflation rate, the budget would be $77 trillion and the difference between the two would wipe out the $37 trillion dollar debt. It took 75 years to accumulate this debt and it can be eliminated in 75 years. Even if the government just kept the spending at the current inflation rate the debt would no longer increase. Congress has been unable to do this and thus the debt keeps rising and they just keep kicking the can down road hoping that if and when it breaks the bank they will be retired. In the eyes of most politicians attacking the debt problem is a fool’s errand. It would most likely result in a primary challenge.
Friday, May 30, 2025
Energy density
Energy density is a term used to describe how much energy in one pound of any substance and this varies.
Product BTU’s per pound
Wood 7,000
Coal 12,000
Oil, gasoline and natural gas 20,000
Enriched uranium 1.25 billion
Thorium 270 billion
The higher density products produce far less waste. For example, burning 12,000 pounds of coal would produce 2,000 pounds of waste not counting CO2 while thorium would be less than one pound. The coal waste would contain sulfur and nitrogen oxides (which cause acid rain), heavy metals like lead, arsenic and mercury along with 20,000 pounds of carbon dioxide.
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