Prices

The news is filled with stories about people who want prices to come down but they are facing an uphill battle. The Consumer Price Index (CPR), is based on the price of a fixed market basket of goods and services in the current year as compared to past years. In 1950 it was $23 and today it is $324 for an average annual increase of 3.5%. What one dollar would buy in 1950 cost $13 today. Since Trump took office, the index has been about 3%. One way to lower prices on particular items is to increase supply like what has been done with oil and natural gas but this will only be effective over a short period and in time the price will begin to rise. Another way to lower prices is to lower the interest rates which will allow home mortgages at lower rates. Since Trump took office in his second term the fed rate has declined from 4.5% to 4.0%. Inflation is holding at 2.7% and this will allow the fed to make additional reductions. When a politician runs on the promise of lowering prices he should be questioned as to how he plans to do that. When Trump campaigned saying he would lower prices that was foolish. He should have said he would slow the rise in prices by tackling inflation. Anyone who has lived over the past 75 years understands that overall prices do not come down.

Deficit reduction

There is always much discussion on how to balance the budget and here are four options for raising revenue. 1. Eliminate itemized deductions and apply standard deduction to everyone. Currently 90% use the standard deduction. This would bring in $340 billion. 2. Impose a new payroll tax of 2%. This would bring in $250 billion. Current tax is 6.2% 3. Five percent value added tax. Brings in $300 billion per year. 4. Impose a 2% surtax on all adjusted gross income above $100,000. Brings in $340 billion Three ways to reduce mandatory spending. 1. Establish a uniform SS benefit at 150% of poverty level (about $2,000 per month). This saves $283 billion. 2. Cap Medicaid spending at present level and save $459 billion 3. Adjustments to Medicare Advantage plans and save $110 billion These all total $2.1 trillion which would offset this years $1.7 trillion deficit. The problem is that these savings would not be applied to the deficit but used for new programs. Just like Trump is considering the tariff money to refund $2,000 to lower income people instead of applying it to the deficit. There are no votes to be gained from lowering the deficit.

Healthcare

The democrats are pushing to have healthcare be a major issue in the midterm election and with good reason. The republican plan is to expand health savings accounts, Medicare and Medicaid cuts, market competition and a focus on life style and prevention. When the average voter hears that it sounds like blah, blah, blah. Now comes the democratic plan in one simple sentence. The government will pay for your healthcare. The response from the voter is simple. Where do I sign.

CR

The US budget process. The president sends a budget to the congress and they have 12 sub committees that approve 12 appropriation bills and they are sent to the president for his signature. This is supposed to be in the president’s desk before Oct 1st. Since the current federal budget process was established in 1977, Congress has only passed all the required appropriations bills to fund the government by the October 1 deadline and sent them to the President on time four times: The other times the government stayed open by-passing continuing resolutions (CR’s). That is the reason the government shut down since they did not pass the CR. By opening the government, the congress agrees to fund the government until January 1st at which time they will face another potential shut down. The obvious solution is to send a budget to the president for the entire year by Oct 1st which is what the law requires.

Newsom energy

Governor Newsom of California, a potential presidential candidate, attended the Climate conference in Brazil and criticized Trump for not showing up. Trump believes that the New Green deal is a scam and sees nuclear power as the future. Newsom, whose state is firmly committed to wind and solar, believes that the solution to climate change is wind and solar. Which direction the country goes may well be determined by the next presidential election when energy production will be a major issue.

AOC

As the democratic party reorganizes, the name of Alexandria Ocasio Cortez is mentioned as possible presidential candidate. It may seem unlikely that a 36-year-old with no business experience and only 6 years as a congressional representative could be president but having just witnessed a 34-year-old with 4 years’ experience as a state representative become mayor of NY City, anything can happen. The party is looking for new young and ambitious people to take up the banner.

Business

There are 183 million Americans working and 22.7 million work for the federal, state and local governments which represents 14% of the population. This percentage has not changed much over the years. Small businesses create over half of all new jobs and this is where economic growth can best be seen. Lower tax rates and tax incentives along with fewer regulations promote new and existing business. In general, less government encourages new business while more government discourages. Government responsibility is to prevent fraud and protect public safety especially regarding large corporations. In the free market system, individual entrepreneurs like Bill Gates, Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos and Steve Jobs, grow into big companies and create new industries and millions of jobs. When government agencies like the EPA are left unchecked, they tend to create regulations that make it difficult for business. The federal government is helping grow the economy by maximizing energy production, lowering regulations, fairer tariffs and bringing manufacturing jobs back home. Voters should be encouraged to elect leaders who know how to use government to create new business.

Good old days

One of the favorite topics for old men is to compare the prices today with prices when they were kids. They all remember five gallons of gas for a buck. The point is that prices have been rising since the end of WW 2. The government can make some changes that will slow the price increase but to have a decrease in overall prices has not happened since the great depression. Inflation has averaged 3.5% since 1950 and the trick is to have wages increase faster. This has been done in the past and can happen again. Since 1950 wages have increased by 4.5%. While the average looks good the increases have been skewed toward the rich with the middle class averaging less than one percent in the past 50 years. This was the result of sending manufacturing jobs over seas but that has been changed and those jobs are coming home

High school

As I did my daily scan through the news there was no mention of Veterans Day. That is not the case in the high schools in this area. They have special guest at a ceremony in the gym which culminates with the orchestra and vocal group playing and singing The Battle Hymn of the Republic in an emotional finale. The talents of these musicians and singers are amazing and makes one proud to be an American. This is the country’s most important holiday since without this one there would be no country

Processing rare earths

In 1973 the world was awakened to the fact that one country could not be allowed to control the world by restricting the supply of oil. This resulted in fracking and liquid natural gas and the US became energy independent. The US is now facing a similar situation but this time it is rare earths. Following the better late than never strategy the US is actively gearing up its rare earth industry, focusing on building a domestic supply chain for mining, processing, and manufacturing to reduce reliance on China. Recent government investments, partnerships with private companies, and the establishment of strategic stockpiles are key components of this effort. While mining rare earths is a dirty business, the processing is even more dirty. The US is not currently processing but plans for plants are underway in California, Colorado, Utah and New Hampshire. It is now a race to catch up before China decides to stop exporting rare earths. The US is behind in rare earths for the same reason it is behind in nuclear development. Environmentalist fear and government regulations. It appears that the American people are not concerned about contaminating other countries where environmental laws and worker safety are laxed even to the point of using child labor. It may not seem right to blame the American people but it is the US consumer who benefits from these metals. One example is iridium a metal which allows touch screen. It is too much trouble for people to use up and down arrows.

Gas

The US is being criticized for not attending the UN Climate Change Conference in Brazil but leaders of the three largest polluters, US, China and India are not attending. China is responsible for 33% of CO2 emissions while the US comes in second at 12% and India third at 8%. Since 2005 US CO2 emissions have declined by 20% primarily by replacing coal fired power plants with natural gas. Similar reductions could be made by switching transportation from gasoline and diesel to natural gas. The US has used natural gas in trucks and buses for years. Many political leaders still believe that wind and solar can replace fossil fuels but the answer is using natural gas on the way to nuclear.

He caved

Many commentators suggest that if a politicians would just be willing to change their minds on certain issues, they would be lauded as free thinkers who put the country ahead of party but that is not the way things work out. Those who change, admit they were wrong, are flip floppers or the most pejoratively, they caved. They lack principal and are willing to go whichever way the wind blows and just pandering for votes. Often times they just say they got the best deal and close out the issue. Just say you won and come home.

Energy

The natural long-term plan to zero carbon is straight forward and completely doable with today’s technology, if politics would get out of the way. Here is the path. All new data centers will build their own power plants, so as not to interfere with the power to the local citizens. This also eliminates the need for long power lines. Transportation of cars, buses and small trucks should switch over to natural gas. Small modular reactors (SMR’s) should be built to slowly replace natural gas as the new power source. Molten salt thorium reactors should replace SMR’s Thorium reactors to be used for industry both heating and powering Thorium reactors used to create hydrogen by electrolysis of water and cars, buses and trucks to switch from natural gas to hydrogen. Thorium reactors to produce diesel and jet fuel by using CO2 from the air to be returned to the air when burned for zero net carbon Thorium reactors to desalt sea water to grow crops in the desert. Finally, thorium reactors will be replaced with fusion the ultimate energy source. Required technology not yet available.

ACA

During Covid the congress approved enhanced payments to those on ACA also known as Obamacare. These payments were scheduled to end this year but the democrats will not vote to open the government unless these enhanced payments are extended. The payments cost the government $35 billion per year and once benefits are in force, they are difficult to remove. This is why public assistance programs often start as temporary and convert to permanent. This is what happened to the tax cuts in Trumps beautiful new bill. They were set to end this year but were extended. The democrats fought against this just as the republicans are fighting against the ACA extension. This enhancement brought in 24 million new patients to the ACA bringing the current total to 45 million and the extra new members cost the government $35 billion per year. The republicans want to argue the extension after the government reopens but the democrats fear the republicans will not bring it up before the congress and it will die. More than 50% receive some assistance with 5 million paying no monthly premium and no annual deductible. If the extension is not approved then the average monthly premium will increase from $74 to $132. The annual deductible is $2,789 and will not change. The monthly premium is not included in the annual deductible. Most articles discuss the monthly premium but avoid the annual deductible which is much more of a burden. The average ACA recipient must pay out of pocket over $4,000 per year before they are covered.

Education K-12

It is often said that government agencies, especially state and local groups tend to grow and expend if left to their own devises and this is true of education. There are 3.2 million teachers in K-12 schools in the US and seven million staff. In 1950 there were 1.1 million teachers in K-12 along with 400,000 staff. There were 26 students per teacher in 1950. The average cost per living since 1950 has been 3.5% and the cost of K-12 has increased by 6%. Test scores have remained stagnate while the gap between Black and White student has widened. These numbers are different for suburbian schools where tax dollars are more available District 196 in the southeast burgs of Minneapolis has 27,679 students, 2,100 teachers and 4,000 staff. With a budget of $500 million this is over $18,000 per student and 13 students per teacher. The two biggest problems facing the country today are the gaps in income and education. Perhaps using AI to offered private tutors for all students can help.

German wind and solar

Now that Germany has changed its constitution so it can go into debt, they will borrow $500 billion through the sale of bonds to finance an infrastructure bill. Of that, $100 billion will be for wind and solar. The greens in Germany are so powerful they have yet to understand that nuclear is the solution to zero carbon. Germany continues to build solar panels even though they don’t have much sun. Northern European countries like Germany get 1,800 hours of sun per year while Southern European countries like Spain get 2,900 hours. Europe’s power prices soared to record levels but it wasn’t war that caused this but the dark, windless weather that is all to common during the winter. The power of the greens reached its peak in 2021 and has been declining slowly but is still able to direct spending toward wind and solar. The US has recognized the potential for nuclear and is moving in that direction.

Socialism or not

As the country watches the NY City election, many wonder how socialism gained such popularity. It started when many fair-minded compassionate people realized that Blacks were treated differently based on the countries big sin of slavery. This thinking was reinforced with the Jim Crow laws in mid-20th century and things like red lining. Minorities were seen as victims and the general society as victimizers. This led to a type of colonialism within the country in the form of oppressor and oppressed. Minorities became the victims and the oppressed and Whites became the victimizers and oppressors. Early steps to reconcile these differences, resulted in programs like affirmative action where job preferences were based on skin color. Across the nation statues were knocked down while streets and buildings were renamed. Free market capitalism added to this differentiation because it creates winners and losers and the Whites were the winners. Blacks and Hispanics convicted of felons were no longer seen as criminals but victims of an unfair society. Citizens were allowed to break into stores and steal goods with impunity. No cash bail and local district attorneys who refused to prosecute became the norm in big cities. Many now see the solution is to revamped the entire systems by replacing merit-based capitalism with equity, by replacing equal opportunity with equal results and the latest action is the election of a democratic socialist in NY City. In today’s United States there are people who do not like the country as it is and what to make major changes. Some even profess to hate America seeing only the country they live in but not comparing to other countries and you have signs like Queers for Palestine. One area that is immune from these pressures is sports where minorities have risen to the top. Even there, things are not all well and many see the rich in corporate boxes flashing thumbs up and down on the gladiators on the field who are busting their heads to entertain the elites. Another group that is gaining equality by merit (hard work) is women, who have taken advantage of education. Last year 120,000 women and 80,000 men received doctoral degrees. The best way to slow down the push toward socialism is to close the wealth and education gaps.

Economic growth

Here is a rather rough, simplified, somewhat biased view of the country at this time. Certain people see the future through the optimistic lens of innovators using private entrepreneurship and small businesses to develop new industries creating new jobs and new economic growth. They are the profit seekers, who revel in the self-satisfaction of having built up a successful enterprise. There is another group who sees themselves as compassionate care givers, who want to transfer the wealth created by the first group to the needy, in the form of public assistance programs. They are the champions of the poor and downtrodden, who have been disadvantage by past real or perceived prejudice. This group believes they have the high moral ground and have a clear conscience knowing they are truly their brother’s keeper. The second group is dependent on the success of the first group for survival. The first group needs government help to use regulations to both protect the public and promote business development while the second group needs government to use taxes to close the income gap. When these two operate in balance the country can grow and still maintain a safety net for those who cannot make it on their own,

Dow SMR

The new interest in small modular reactors (SMR’s) is not limited to the big social media companies as Dow Chemical starts construction on four SMR’s at its Seadrift complex in Texas. Each will have 80 MW for a total output of 320 MW’s. Other companies like Nucor and Constellation Energy, both which need electric power 24/7 and want zero carbon are active. The Dow unit is using TRISO as fuel. These are small pellets containing uranium wrapped in ceramic and graphite. This gives the unit the walk away shut down safety and lowers waste product production. The pellets are added continuously and when power shuts down the addition of fuel stops and the reactor shuts down. These reactors do not require shut down to add new fuel and thus run 24/7. There are currently 80 companies working on developing SMR’s.

AI long term

As the country progresses through the AI revolution it will change most jobs, eliminate some jobs and create new jobs. One example is the radiologist. Some years ago, it was predicted that computers could read x-rays faster and more accurately than people and these jobs were considered to be in jeopardy. What happened was that as x-ray machines became more efficient, they caused more x-rays to be used which led to better diagnosis as doctors used the computer for initial interpretation which gave them more time to evaluate in more detail. The result has been an increase in health benefits and the need for more radiologist. Automation often times means more of something not less. The point being, that at this time the long-term consequences of AI, are yet to be determined.

Norway tax

When Mayor Mamdani of New York City says he will put a 2% tax on all income over one million dollars that is the equivalent of a wealth tax even though it is on income. Norway has a wealth tax but it is under pressure in this year’s election. It is 1.0% of all income over $2 million and raises $2.4 billion annually. 720,000 pay the wealth tax but most are small amounts with about 3,000 who have income over $10 million. More than 30 billionaires and millionaires have left the country. In 2022 Norway raised the wealth tax to 1.1% and expected to gain $146 million but ended up losing $594 million in revenue because wealthy people left the country. The labor-controlled government recently voted to keep the wealth tax even though more wealthy people are destined to leave the country. While this seems counter intuitive the explanation is that even though it loses money, it sounds good. This will likely change if more rich people leave.

Ten points

What are ten points in US foreign policy 1. Bringing manufacturing jobs back home 2. Reciprocal tariffs 3. Reducing dependency of critical materials like pharmaceuticals 4. Getting Europe and Canada to pay for their own defense 5. Reducing contributions to the UN and NATO 6. Using Abraham Accords to get Saudi Arabia to rebuild Palestine 7. Finding a peaceful settlement to the Ukraine War 8. Free and fair trade 9. Not trying to convert other countries into America 10. Stop the influx of drug What are ten points in US domestic policy 1. Securing the border 2. Recognizing that wind and solar cannot replace fossil fuels but nuclear can 3. Becoming energy independent 4. Finding 300,000 missing migrant children 5. Improving education using AI as individual tutors 6. Reducing regulations to create new jobs 7. Keeping taxes low 8. Using tax incentives to promote innovation 9. Maintaining a strong national defense 10. Deporting criminal migrants What are ten points of culture 1. What are ten cultural points 2. Gender surgery on minors 3. Schools keeping secrets from parents 4. Men dresses as women dancing in grade schools 5. Changing pronouns, them and they instead of he and she 6. Paper straws and grocery bags. 7. Closing schools for Covid 8. DEI and CRT 9. Hotels for migrants while citizens live on the streets 10. Overwhelming schools and clinics with illegal migrants

Mamdani

The past 50 years of globalization has created the largest income and wealth gap in history and no where is this more evident than New York City. New York has the greatest disparities in income of any major U.S. city, with the top 1 percent of the population getting 44 percent of the income in the city. That New York City has extreme wealth and extreme poverty, and lots of both, seems like a law of nature, older than the subway or the Brooklyn Bridge. When this happens, it is only a matter of time before some charismatic populist comes along with a promise to redistribute the wealth and Zohran Mamdani, the newly elected mayor of New York is just such a person. He is 34 years old and has been a state representative for 5 years. He has no business experience and will be responsible for the $112 billion dollar city budget. How was he able to achieve this is based on the old proven policy of taking from the rich and giving to the not rich. His platform is free city buses, rent freeze, free child care, increase minimum wage, city owned grocery stores and affordable housing. This will be paid for by raising $9 billion in new income taxes on the wealthy and business. This is the classic democratic policy which is pejoratively referred to as tax and spend. He also has promised to set aside $65 million for government funded gender surgeries, using mental health workers to respond to some police calls, reduce the jail population by closing Rikers Island, decriminalizing prostitution and certain misdemeanors, reforming the police department by reducing its scope and cutting overtime and provide housing for migrants. New York City has enough rich people so he can continue these policies for many years but in time, as is always the case with redistribution, you eventually run out of money.

Amazon

Many marveled at the speed with which Elon Musk built his latest data center in Memphis but not to be out done, Amazon recently completed a new center in Indiana in thirteen months from start to finish. Amazon has opened a data center on 1,200 acres of land in Indiana that’s dedicated to training and running models from Anthropic. They will not be using Nvidia chips like most other data centers. The first 7 buildings are completed and operational. The buildings are over 200,000 sq ft and there will be 23 more buildings in the next two years. The complex will use 2.2 GW.s of energy, the equivalent of two large nuclear powered plants. This is as much power as half the people in the state use. The power will come from Indiana- Michigan power company. Amazon is a major customer and is paying for the necessary substations to be built on-site, which helps the utility modernize the power grid to handle the increased load. These will be natural gas plants. Amazon will pay 80% of the cost of upgrades and sign a 12-year contract for usage. Amazon is also paying to upgrade the water treatment plant, the waste water plant and roads and highways leading into and away from the project. The state has offered a 50% real property tax abatement for 10 years and the remaining 50% will be enough to offset the additional cost the city will face in local services. On the surface this looks like a win-win for the state and Amazon.

Revolving door

Eisenhower warned against the power of the military-industrial complex and when Obama took office he declared and end to the revolving door between people who worked in the defense department and the defense industry. He said that anyone working for him would have to wait two years after leaving government before working in private industry. After he was elected and before he was inaugurated, he broke his rule. Willian Lynn who was a lobbyist for Raytheon and he had previously worked in the Clinton defense department where he was in charge of budgets and acquisitions before he took his job at Raytheon. Obama hired Lynn and three years later he left to work to return to private industry where he worked as a CEO making $10 million per year. This sort of thing happens on a regular basis in all administrations. A GAO report in 2021 showed that 28 of the 32 generals and admirals that retired went to work in private industry as lobbyist or consultants.

Future power

Large nuclear power plants (one gigawatt) cost about $4 billion outside the US and about twice that in the US. Much of this is regulatory and is currently being addressed as nuclear makes a comeback. The cost of subsidies for wind and solar 2010–2023: Cumulative costs for solar and wind subsidies were $76 billion and $65 billion, respectively Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) projections: The 10-year cost of wind and solar tax credits is projected to be around $421 billion between 2025 and 2034 Add to that the subsidies for EV’s Projections for the total cost of energy/clean vehicle subsidies under these acts range from an estimated $391 billion over 10 years (per the CBO) to up to $1.2 trillion (per Goldman Sachs' 2023 projection) This does not include the environmental cost of mining, processing and disposal of the materials needed to make windmills, solar panels and EV’s. Then the human cost of boys working in cobalt mines in Africa, Indians in Peru watching their land being destroyed by lithium mining and ground water contamination in China mining rare earths. Moving away from fossil fuels is necessary to reduce carbon but also because these materials will run out. Scientist realize more each day that nuclear power is the answer.

Rent of buy

Many young couples are comparing buying a home vs renting a home. The average home in Hastings cost $330,000 and is 2,100 sq ft in size. For a conventional loan this means 3% down or $9,900. The monthly payment on a 7%, 25-year loan is $2,263 for principal and interest. Include $2,600 for property tax, $1,500 for home owners’ insurance and $140 for mortgage protection insurance for a total monthly payment of $2,744. The average rent for a three-bedroom home is $2,100. For a home owner the cost of interest, taxes and insurance is deductible and saves about 20% in federal and state income tax. This brings the monthly net payment down from $2,744 to $2,195. At the end of the first year the house has gone up in value by 3% which is $9,900 in unrealized profit. This offsets the down payment. Most young people should save for a down payment as the long-term benefit increases as the property value increases. Over time the value of housing has increased 3% per year. The law allows gift money to be used as down payment. The question for grandparents is, would you rather give your grandchild $10,000 for a down payment on a home while you’re living or give them $10,000 in your will after your dead.

Nuclear is coming

The government announced this week plans to invest $80 billion along with $100 billion from Japan to build Westinghouse nuclear reactors. This will include large one-gigawatt reactors plus small modular reactors. Two AP1000 reactors were deployed and are now operating in Waynesville, GA. The plants produce 4.5 gigawatts. The plans include building SMR the AP300. There will be a total of 10 large reactors and a number o small modular reactors to be under construction by 2030. The reactors will use small uranium pellets as fuel. The US +government will take a 20% ownership in the project meaning that approvals will be fast tracked. The projects could be completed in five years meaning sometime in the 2030’s. While this is going on private companies are setting up to build small reactors to power data centers. Nuclear is on the way to replacing fossil fuels and the goal of carbon free by 2050 may be possible.

Carbon free

England set a goal of being carbon free by 2050 and the result is the country who started the industrial revolution is de industrializing. The main reason is the high cost of energy. For hundreds of years England maintained its industrial position by using coal but that ended with climate change. Today the price of electricity in England is 38 cents per kWh while in the US the cost is 18 cents or less than half. In England the cost of natural gas is $49 per 1000 cubic feet and in the US the cost is $25. The UK was the first country to industrialize, but also one of the first to deindustrialize. UK manufacturing as a share of GDP has fallen from 30% in 1970 to 8% in 2024 The US was headed in this direction up until ten years ago when the country realized that wind and solar could not replace fossil fuels. The next step is to understand that nuclear is the answer. The same thing is going on in other European countries like Germany.

Benefits

During Covid the Biden administration offered enhanced subsidies for Obamacare and this doubled the number of participants from 12 million to 24 million at a cost of $1,400 per person. These are set to expire at the end of 2025 and the democrats want to make them permanent. They will not agree to reopen the government until these subsidies are codified and this is the main hold up on the shutdown. Once benefits are given it is difficult to take them back. These benefits were enacted by congress and can only be extended by congress. The law allowed people with incomes higher than 400% of the poverty level to get subsidies. Lowered the premium free coverage up to 150% of poverty level. Income at 400% of poverty level for a family of four is $124,800.

NY mayor

There is an old joke about the eighth grader running for class president who promised longer recesses, no homework and free candy at lunch. He won. This exemplifies what socialism is all about. The candidate for mayor in NY City is promising free public transportation, free childcare, debt cancellation and $30 minimum wage. He plans to pay for these benefits by increasing taxes on the rich. No mention of expanding the economy or creating jobs.

Middle class

Throughout history the norm has been a few well off at the top and a large number of poor at the bottom. The most obvious example is the King along with his nobles and then a mass of worker bees. This was the case until the 1800 when the industrial revolution started. To begin with the old system remained with the robber barons, people like Rockefeller and Carnegie, but in time work rules were past and business was regulated and unions were formed and a middle class arose. The lesson is that the middle class is not something that comes about naturally but must be fought for. The only weapon the worker has is to organize. This is what happened after WW 2 in the US as the war machine turned into consumer products and companies formed partnerships with the workers and all profited. These years from post war up to the 1970’s represented the time when salaries increased each year a little more than inflation and workers were able to enjoy the fruits of their labor. Over the next 50 years the US moved from a manufacturing economy to a financial economy and this was the downfall of the middle class. Today as the country begins its return to growing manufacturing it is time for the workers to unite as they did in the 1950’s and once again bring back the middle class. People say that automation will stop the working person but the same problem existed in the 1950’s. Automation was a hot topic in the 1950s and ’60s—a subject for congressional hearings, blue-ribbon panels, newspaper editorials, think-tank studies, scholarly symposia, documentary films, World’s Fair exhibits, even comic strips and protest songs.

Migrant criminals

Since President Biden took office in January 2021, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has recorded approximately 11 million migrant encounters nationwide through fiscal year (FY) 2024 not including 1.5 million known got a ways. Crossing the border into the United States without authorization is against the law. Entering the U.S. without being inspected and admitted by an immigration officer at a designated port of entry is a federal criminal offense, not just a civil violation. To better understand the options, these migrants should be divided into three groups. First group is comprised of 450,000 with criminal convictions on ICE’s non detained docket. Second group are 1.3 million migrants who have been adjudicated and found not eligible for asylum and remain in the country. The rest have not had their day in court and should be evaluated for work permits to allow them to remain in legal status. The got a ways must be found and their status determined and the 300,000 missing children must be found. ICE is experiencing difficulties in rounding up the migrants because local authorities are not cooperating. They allow criminals to go free into the community which leads to ICE rounding up those convicted criminals with some who have not been convicted.

Reshoring

The US plan to bring back manufacturing jobs is on a slow but steady course. US companies have committed to $1.2 trillion between January and September 2025. In the first half of 2025 foreign countries invested $150 billion in US manufacturing facilities with many times that projected for the future. Companies want to invest in the US because that is where the market is. The US with four percent of the world’s population produces 26% of the world’s GDP. The US also wants to bring home products for national defense reasons along with safety, like pharmaceuticals. This also minimizes the concerns about supply chains and with shorter supply chains companies can change directions to meet market demands more quickly and efficiently.

Chicago Blacks

For the past 30 months innocent civilians in Sudan have been killed because of civil unrest. This is not prominent in the news and a deep search must be done to find out what is happening. Here are a couple of reports. Briefing ambassadors in the Security Council, the UN’s top relief official Tom Fletcher said “women and girls are being raped, people being mutilated and killed – with utter impunity,” adding: “We cannot hear the screams, but – as we sit here today – the horror is continuing.” “Tens of thousands of terrified, starving civilians have fled or are on the move,” Mr. Fletcher said. “Those able to flee – the vast majority women, children, and the elderly – face extortion, rape and violence on the perilous journey.” Some have suggested that this is not considered worthwhile news because the people are black. Once again it is case of Black lives don’t matter. On a much smaller scale this is happening in US cities. In Chicago in 2024 438 Blacks and 111 Hispanics were murdered while during this same time period 23 Whites were murdered. These statistics are buried in the back pages of the news. Once again, the question arises, would reporting be different if 500 Whites had been murdered.

New jobs

As the dawn of AI begins to react with jobs some changes will be necessary in how society works. The early effects can already be seen in education, in particular for entry level jobs. Instead of highly specialized AI development roles, entry-level AI factory jobs for high school graduates will focus on the operational and maintenance needs of these facilities. These roles often require hands-on technical skills over a traditional college degree. Companies are not looking for college graduates with degrees in humanities but those who major in STEM. If you are a young person looking for work in the age of AI, then start training in high school, by taking industrial arts and computer classes. Follow this up with a year or two at a tech college and industry will be coming looking for you. Also consider tech college to learn trades like plumbing and electrician. Above all make sure you have good reading comprehension skills as much of your on-the-job training will require you to read and understand new processes and procedures. As the economy expands there will be millions of new jobs in manufacturing and the country is entering the next industrial revolution. Get ready the world is changing.

National health insurance

As the US moves away from paying for most of the defense for Europe, Canada and Japan this is good time to visit national healthcare again. It is estimated that if the US closed down all healthcare and started one plan, something like Medicare for all, it would cost $4.9 trillion per year. In 2024 the government spent $1.9 trillion on healthcare. US companies spent $1.3 trillion US consumers spent $165 billion out of pocket (company insurance plans) Medicare recipients paid $133 billion in part B cost Medicaid and Obamacare recipients paid $270 billion These total $3.8 trillion. This means the consumers would no longer pay for their existing coverage but would have to come up with the $1,100 billion shortage. For the 150 working families that would be $7,300 per year or $610 per month. Based on todays rates the average employee pays $500 per month for family plan health insurance through the company. This would standardize treatment across the country much like Medicare does today. It would end the private insurance business which employs 600,000 people.

Education

A common question is why universities tend to be liberal and one explanation is jealousy based on disbelief. There are 1.4 million college professors and they averaged eight years of school beyond high school at a cost of $150,000. The salaries of those in the humanities are lower than those in business and engineering. Most of the political talk comes from the humanities. These people find it difficult to understand why the rest of the country doesn’t realize that their superior education makes them more qualified to determine what is best for the country. When they see people with far less formal education making more money and having more influence they are dismayed. How could some middle manager or some plumber understand the complexities of the world. In the classroom the teacher is the expert and often corrects students. This has a tendency to carry over into private life.

France

France is on the leading edge of what is happening to most European countries and that is simply they’re going broke. After 50 years of public assistance programs, they are unable to meet their commitments to the people and the people are upset. They have been through four Prime Ministers in one year as each tried to rein in spending and then got the boot. Once people receive a benefit, it is very difficult to take it back. Europeans not only work less than Americans they no longer innovate. They are being left behind. Over the past 10 years Europe has gone from producing 20% of the worlds GDP to 13%. Many public officials in the US would like to add more public programs but Europe should be an early warning.

Rent control

The NY mayoral candidate is promising rent control to stabilize the cost of apartments. St Paul implemented rent controls three years ago. Rent control in St. Paul led to a decrease in new apartment construction, with building permits dropping significantly after the ordinance was passed. Multiple sources point to a sharp decline in new housing permits, with one report showing an 80% drop in the months following the ordinance's implementation. The decrease is attributed to developer disincentives caused by rent control, as it impacted the financial viability of new projects and made it harder to secure financing. When builders are told they cannot increase the rent they stop building. People in rent-controlled apartments don’t want to leave and so there is no room for growth. The latest trend is to carve out exceptions to the rules based on approval which opens the door to misadventure by governments colluding with builders.

Germany

The fall of Germany is evident by two years of recession and no sign of relief in sight. Germany is a manufacturing economy and depends heavily on trade which results in a favorable balance of trade with a high in 2017 of $261 billion. This allowed the country to avoid going into debt with the average debt being about $70 billion. This compares to $37 trillion in the US. Germany was so sure of its plans that in 2009 the constitution was changed saying the government could never borrow more that .35% of GDP vs the US which routinely borrows ten times that much. Germany’s problems began in 2000 with Covid which shut down trade and cut deeply into Germanys GDP. Next came the Ukraine War where Germany quit buying cheap Russian gas. This was followed by the US placing tariffs on German imports and most recently the US telling European countries that they would have to start paying for their own defense. The result is that Germany once again changed its constitution and now allows the government to borrow what ever is needed. They recently approved $500 billion to rebuild infrastructure and to help struggling steel, chemical and auto companies.

Obamacare for 2026

Obama care has been around for 15 years and it is time for an update. First off in order to pass the law it was deemed necessary to keep the first ten-year cost below one trillion dollars and they succeeded by coming in at $940 billion. What most people are not aware of that this was accomplished by collecting premiums starting in 2010 but withholding most benefits until 2014. Thus, the ten-year cost was spread over ten years but the coverage over six. Second most people who qualified for free coverage signed up but many young people who were faced with small premiums chose not to sign up. This prompted the government to instigate the individual mandate which was a penalty for not having the insurance. In 2019 the Trump administration eliminated the mandate. Many young people chose not to sign up deciding instead to just use emergency rooms much like illegal migrants were doing. As the cost for Obamacare rose more and more people, in particular, young people started dropping out. This creates, what is called in the insurance business, a death spiral. As more people drop out the cost for the remaining group goes higher which causes more to drop out and so on. Third. This year the cost for the Silver plan under Obamacare will rise 18% but the real cost is in the annual deductible. For those living below the poverty level the monthly cost is zero and the average annual deductible is $700. Most of these people will keep their coverage. The poverty level for 2026 is $15,650 per family. For each additional person the level rises by $5,500. This means a family of four can get free insurance with incomes up to $25,000. For those families earning between $23,475 and $31,300 their annual deductible increased to $3,600. The income limits still allow $5,500 per child. Thus, a family of four earning over $42,300 will pay $500 per month and have a $5,000 annual deductible. That means the annual cost would be $11,000 before insurance kicks in. Many families will drop out. Interesting enough, 5 million who are eligible for free care fail to sign up mostly because they are now aware or find it to much trouble.

Migrants in Europe

Angela Merkel was Chancellor of Germany for 16 years and made two crucial mistakes, which came back later to haunt the government. After the accident at Fukushima, Japan, she decided to shut down all 17 of Germany’s nuclear power plants and that was completed by 2023. When Russia invaded the Ukraine, Germany stopped buying oil and natural gas from Russia and must now restart their old coal plants and buy natural gas from the US at a higher cost. Next in 2015 she opened the doors to migrants from mostly Eastern European and Muslim countries. In the first year 1 million came in, which based on population, would be like 6 million in the US. Two years ago, Germany began to deport many if not most of these migrants. They first closed the border, by allowing the police to use stop and search methods to turn back people at the border. Fast tracked the process and used private planes to deport people to two countries who agreed to take them. Then they changed the immigration laws to accept people based on merit meaning what could they bring to help the economy. These procedures are being followed by other European countries who have been experiencing problems with migrants.

Police

Some cities show their appreciation for the police by offering good benefits including salary. The police in Hastings have life and disability insurance, holiday and personal time pay, health insurance and pension. The average salary is $98,000 and an officer can retire at 90% of pay with 30 years of service at age 55. After retirement they no longer pay into the retirement or social security so they can retire with more net pay than while they were working.

Harvard

Each year more than 50,000 student apply to get into Harvard. Only 2,000 are accepted and 25% of those are foreign students. Harvard accepts around 1,900 to 2,000 undergraduate students each year. For the 2024-2025 academic year, nearly 7,000 international students were enrolled, making up over 25% of the total student body. Why are US students turned down to make room for foreign students? Since 40% of US students accepted are Asian Americans is this discriminating against Asians. Students are admitted based on merit and studies and court cases have indicated that Asian American applicant often have very high academic ratings.

Trade

Prior to 1970 the US ran a positive balance of trade but since then things have turned around. It has now reached one trillion-dollar deficit. This is primarily the result of tariffs. US price due to factors like higher import taxes, VAT, shipping costs, and market demand. For example, a US-market Chevy Tahoe that starts at around $59,000 in the US can cost over $100,000 in Europe, once taxes and other fees are included. A Jeep Grand Cherokee starts at $38,490 in the U.S. but $64,830 in France and $61,990 in Germany. In Japan and China it would cost around $61,990. In 2024, approximately 165,000 American vehicles were imported into Europe. This number is significantly smaller than the number of vehicles the US imports from Europe, which was around 750,000 in the same year Trump’s plan is to have reciprocal tariffs meaning that if a country charges the US a tariff the US will charge the same tariff. If this succeeds then most countries will remove tariffs which will lead to free and fair trade. Free trade is best for all but they must be fair

Race

Since the majority of migrants being picked up by ICE are people with brown skins the government is being accused of racial profiling but the majority of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. come from Mexico, but the population is increasingly diversified, with significant numbers also coming from Central America (especially El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras), South America, and Asia. Some say this is racist but the real racism is in the big cities in the US. In 2024 there were 573 people murdered in Chicago and 26 were White. If these racial figures were reversed more would be done to solve the problem. Scholars have found that journalists are more likely to put in extra effort for victims whose cases are perceived as more "newsworthy." This disproportionately benefits white victims and those in more affluent neighborhoods. This is racism but it doesn’t seem to matter to the officials who are mostly Black. Chicago has a Black mayor a Black deputy mayor and forty percent of the city council members are Black including the chairman and vice chairmen.

Egos

Often times marriages break up because neither side will subjugate their egos for the good of the partnership. The government is currently shut down because the two parties refused to get their egos under control. The war in Ukraine continues because each side is protecting their egos. When a person views all of these situations from thirty thousand feet it looks kind of sad.

Game

The world should be thankful for the United States. One way to understand this is to play a simple mind game. Suppose that some other country had the military force that the US now has. How would things change ff China had this great force. How about Russia or North Korea or even Europe. The US does not have territorial designs like most others would have. After WW 2 the US was in a position to take over the world but it chose not to. The US does place economic pressure on other countries and for a while a rogue CIA interfered internally with other countries but there is no attempt to directly take over another country using military force. Picture Kim Jung Un with the US military in his pocket.

Census

The number of illegal migrants living in California has been lowered from 2.6 million to 1.8 million and 14 million live in the US and this is down 2 million since the start of Trump’s term. Most people are not aware of the fact that illegals vote indirectly for the president of the US. According to the 2020 census there were 331 million people living in the US and dividing that by 535 means that each 618,000 people equates to one electoral vote. This means that the illegals give California 3 additional electoral votes. There are seven states that have only one representative in congress and California has three just from illegals. Illegals across the country equates to 23 electoral votes and this can determine who is president. Right now, the republicans only have a 6-vote advantage in the house. This house majority could easily be determined by illegal migrants. In addition, most experts feel the number of illegals is undercounted. Trump is pushing that only citizens be counted in the next census.

US vs EU

NATO past and future. There are 32 countries in NATO and in the past, they have used 1.5% of their GDP for their own defense while the US has spent 3.75% of its GDP on defense. The reason for the discrepancy is that NATO relies heavily on the US to help defend against potential enemies. Under pressure from Trump the NATO countries have committed to spending 5% of their GDP on defense. This switch is already underway as over the past three years the US has spent $120 billion on military aid sent to fight the war in Ukraine and now the EU is buying military equipment from the US to defend Ukraine. Canada is in much the same position as the EU. These are countries who have national health care. Some have suggested if they had to pay for their own defense they couldn’t afford such care.

Lives

Most Americans agree that there should be no discrimination based on race but in the real world that is not what is happening. People are seemingly unaware of why Blacks are treated as second class citizens. A Black male at age 62 who starts social security will collect on average eight years while a White female starting at age 62 will collect for 18 years. Black families are headed by single moms 70% of the time while White moms are only 25%. Poverty rates for Black families is higher. Black students have lower test scores, more discipline problems and higher dropout rates. Black youths are more likely to be arrested and incarcerated and Blacks are disproportionately represented in prisons. Black males represent 6% of the population and 38% of prisoners. Black males between ages 15 and 50 represent 3% of the population but commit 50% of the murders and 90% of those are Blacks killing Blacks. Black females of child bearing age represent 4% of the population but have 40% of the abortions. Medium household income for Black families is $56,000 and $85,000 for Whites. Home ownership among Whites is 74% and 46% for Blacks. Many of these problems are the result of problems in school and many of those are the result of problems at home. These statistics are readily available but mostly ignored. In 2024 murders in Chicago were 438 Blacks, 111 Hispanics and 23 Whites. This was a typical year. Many feel that if these numbers were reversed more would be done to cut the murder rate. It is almost as if minority lives don’t matter.

Charity

Should rich people donate to charity. The answer is, depends. Sam Waltons children own 3.6 billion shares of Walmart stock that pays 88 cents per share so their annual income is $3.2 billion. They give $500 million to charity and invest the rest in other businesses. Elon Musk invested $100 million dollars of his own money in Space X in 2002. Today the company employees 13,000 mostly high paid tech people. The economic impact is in the tens of billions and projected to be trillions by 2030. To answer the question, yes people like the Waltons should donate to charity but people like Musk should innovate. The Waltons are giving a man a fish but Musk is teaching him how to fish. People like Musk and Steve Jobs should use their abilities and their money to create new industries. Of course, most rich people do both innovate and donate. 31 years ago, Jeff Bezos borrowed $300,000 from his parents and started Amazon in a garage with the idea of selling books on line. For the first ten years all profits were reinvested in the company and then over the next 20 years it grew into a trillion-dollar company employing 1.5 million people. He could have given the early profits to charity and kept the company just selling books.

Unions

The democratic economic plan is today the same as it was yesterday and the day before. It is to redistribute income and wealth. They will take money from those who have a lot and give it to those who have less. In the process they will decide who gets what, when and how. The objective is to offer benefits in the hope of getting votes but in the process, they gain the power of the purse. This then leads to control of policy which means power over the people. Both parties use this but the democrats have perfected the art. Republicans besides offering goodies will strive to ease regulations on business to create jobs which leads to economic growth which leads to expanding the opportunities for innovation. It is the private sector that has the incentive to come up with new ideas and these lead to new industries. The public sector can also create jobs through innovation in NASA and other areas of research and development like the CDC. These areas provide the ground work for private groups like Space X and pharma companies to grow. The democratic party now has an opportunity to right one of the most serious wrongs in the country and that is the large discrepancy called the income and wealth gap. As the country brings home the manufacturing jobs it lost over the past 50 years the door is open for unions to gain more power. Most economist say that if wages go up then prices will follow but that doesn’t take into account the increased buying power of the consumers whose wages increased. When Henry Ford started paying $5 per day it allowed his workers to buy the cars they were producing. This led to increased consumption and the country profited. When ordinary people earn more money, they spend more money and since the economy is based on consumer spending the economy will grow producing more jobs. Add to that the fact that new facilities will be more efficient further adding to productivity and everyone wins. The government can broaden collective bargaining rights and simplify the unionization process. Under the present system people are not paid based on their ability to produce but rather on their ability to bargain. It is ridiculous to think that the CEO is more productive than a thousand workers yet that is how they are paid. Unions will provide more bargaining power to the workers. In 1950 35% of workers were unionized and today that figure is only 6%.

Student loans

There are currently 42 million college students past and present who have outstanding student loans that average $40.000. Of these about 2 million have been paying on these loans for more than 20 years. Under the new rule signed yesterday these 2 million will have their remaining loan balances forgiven at cost of $80 billion to the government. This still leaves $1.5 trillion in outstanding loans.

net zero

A misguided way to transfer wealth in the US was spearheaded by climate change. The idea that replacing fossil fuels with wind and solar was a social program to transfer wealth at its heart with a cover story of saving the earth from climate change. This did not take hold in the US but in Canada it did. In the early 2000’s articles began to appear showing how increased carbon dioxide was warming the earth. By 2004 the UN got on board with climate activist to change laws to encourage the development of non-fossil fuels. In 2015, 130 countries met in Paris to sign a climate agreement to go to zero carbon by the year 2100. Next in 2018 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change changed the zero-carbon date to 2050. When people challenged these proposals, they were called climate deniers and accused of not caring about the earth. Somewhere along the way the whole process moved from science to politics and the first signs that this was a way to move money from one group to another with government agencies deciding who got what, where and how. What happened in the US was now exposed on a world-wide basis. There were early clues that something was amiss but they were ignored and the momentum of net zero won the day. When leading scientist said that the science was settled, good scientist recognized that science is never settled and always subject to change based on new information. While Biden signed on to the Paris Agreement, it was not confirmed by congress so one of the first things Trump did was rescind Bidens executive order. Canada, on the other hand, stayed with agreement and took further steps toward zero carbon. When Canada signed then PM Justin Trudeau said proudly, Canada is back and will save our grandchildren from climate change. How this was to be done was not discussed. For a country whose whole economy centered around natural gas and oil this seemed unlikely to happen. There followed a series of new laws demanding carbon taxes, emission controls and increased regulations on fossil fuels. In 2021 Canada passed into law the zero carbon rules. This led to legislation requiring all cars to be EV by 2035. The new PM in Canada Mark Carney has pledged to carry on the goals of net zero. This has led to threats by Western Provinces whose economies depend on oil and gas to object to the new laws. Alberta is currently signing a petition to separate from Canada.

City bathrooms

Bureaucracy has run amok. The purpose of government regulations are to protect the people and the environment, both worthy goals, but in practice things have moved to the extreme. President Obama spoke eloquently about shovel ready jobs but when it came time to implement, he ran into some snags. Despite the promise of a rapid economic boost, many projects took months or even years to get off the ground. Complex planning, permitting, and environmental review processes caused delays, meaning funding could not be deployed as quickly as anticipated. One simple example can illustrate the whole point. San Fransico decided to build one public toilet and the estimated cost was $1.7 million. Most of the cost went for permitting fees of various sorts. Two private companies agreed to donate the materials and labor to build the toilet which they proceeded to do. The final cost was $300,000 mostly for permitting. The toilet is a 10 by 15-foot structure about the size of the master bath in most new homes.

Deportations

Some sanctuary cities have adopted the strategy used by Hamas and it is effective. Hamas mixes in their fighters with the general population and when they are killed many innocent citizens are killed and then these victims are published in the press showing how the Israelis are killing Palestinians. The sanctuary cities instead of handing over criminals in the jails to ICE are releasing them into the general population and when ICE captures them, they also arrest migrants who have not been convicted of committing a crime. Then these cases are showcased on TV. A better solution would be for the local authorities to turn over the convicted migrants to ICE who could then arrest and deport. Next ICE could help find the 300,000 missing children and this could lead to a road to citizenship for those migrants whose only crime is being here illegally. These people could help fill the many jobs that will be created when the US brings manufacturing back home. Instead, the cities are doubling down and permitting local police to help protect the criminals from ICE. This is the old story of a house divided.

EV's

Sales of electric cars hit a record in the third quarter of this year. The reason was this quarter ended the $7,500 subsidy. As people realize that the grid cannot handle the needed charging stations and cold weather continues to limit the milage, EV’s are losing popularity. More people are coming to understand the harm caused to the environment by the mining, processing and disposal of the elements needed for car batteries and this also hurts sales. The need for electric power will double in the next five years to supply the new data centers being built around the country. This will lower the demand for EV’s and perhaps they will be replaced by hydrogen when small nuclear reactors come on line.

Europe

An old adage says that if you want to dance you have to pay the fiddler. The day of payment is fast approaching in Europe. Most EU countries have prided themselves on their vast social programs. National healthcare, generous retirement plans, weeks of vacations and up to a year of full pay for having a baby in addition to time off for fathers. For years these programs have been paid for by exports and low expenditures for national defense. In recent years exports have declined as the US demands equivalent tariffs and that the EU countries begin to pay for their own defense instead of relying on the US. These countries have also allowed millions of refugees to enter the country which is placing stress on public assistance plans. Politicians in Brussels are trying to instigate austerity programs to cover the new cost but the people are objecting to any reductions in their government benefits and this is leading to rioting. One suggested solution is to institute a wealth tax. This has been tried in the past but failed in more countries like France, Italy, Belgian and Netherlands but remains in Norway, Spain and Switzerland. In Norway the tax is one percent for all net income over $3 million for married couples. Even if a workable system could be developed where the money would be taken from the rich and given to those who are not rich it would be only a temporary solution because in time the rich would run out of money. It is like Margaret Thatcher said, socialism is a great idea until you run out of the other guy’s money. The best solution is to have an economy that is growing and creating new jobs. The per capita income in Europe is $34,800 and in the US $86,000 or more than double. One of the main differences in these numbers is the fact that Americans work 1,811 hours per year while the Europeans work 1,511 and in Germany and France the number is 1,341.

Fair

One of the things that has hurt the democratic party is called in the current vernacular, identity politics. This concept centers around the word fair. It says that certain things in the past were unfair and so the solution is to make new things unfair to try and equalize the playing field. The way to measure the success of this approach is to strive for equal results. When minorities achieve at the same level as Whites then we have reached equity. The impetus for this is the fact that not everyone is at the same starting point because of past injustices. In order to make up for this the rules are changed to give an advantage to one group. This is not for all things. For example, in sports only the best qualified get to play but in applying for a job as a firefighter the test is race adjusted.

Antisemitism

Many pro-Palestinian groups who were quite vocal in their demands to free Palestine are suddenly quiet as Palestine is freed. This leads some to believe that the real intent of these people was not to free Palestine but to destroy Israel. This idea is promoted by the recent revelations regarding the teacher’s union emailing three million of their members information about Palestine. The nation’s largest teachers' union sent a mass email to its members containing a map that erased the state of Israel and labeled the area "Palestine," along with materials supporting Hamas’ barbaric Oct. 7 attacks. The emails continued trying to justify the holocaust saying: Another page on the Palestine Remembered website also contains a page that claimed "the last thing Hitler wanted to do was genocide" and praised Hitler and claimed that "the majority of German and Austrian Jewry" were saved because of his policies. Add to this the fact that many major universities in the US allowed Jewish students to be threatened by pro-Palestinian protestors who shouted “from the river to the sea” which was promoting the end of Israel and a picture emerges prompting the end of Israel. The FBI reports that 70% of all Religion-Based hate crimes were against Jews.

Gaza War

A brief history of the Middle East war and why it ended. It begins with the major achievement of Trump’s first term, the Abraham Accords. This was an agreement between Israel and four Arab countries, UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco to normalize relations with Israel. In the fall of 2020 Saudi Arabia was considering the possibilities of these Accords as a force united against Iran. As relations warmed with the Saudis, Iran became increasing concerned. Many feel this was the reason that Iran gave the go ahead to Hamas to attack Israel. In October of 2023 Hamas attacked Israel and this led to a series of events that ended in the destruction of Hamas. In Sept 2024 Hezbollah was destroyed by bombs in telephones. On December 2024 the Syrian government collapsed cutting off the access road to both Hezbollah and Hamas. In June of 2025 the US bombed the nuclear sites in Iran and along with the sanctions left Iran in disarray. At this point Israel went all in on destroying Hamas. Last week 30 countries, including nine Arab countries, met in Egypt to set up plans to bring peace to the Middle East. The plan is to rebuild Palestine.

Gaza today

The rebuilding of Gaza will mean high rise apartments since the population density is so high. The ideal situation is to use money from the rich oil countries along with Israeli construction companies and Palestinian labor to first remove the rubble and then set up communities with housing and commercial development. The beach front is 25 miles long and half would be for public beaches and half for commercial development. This would mean 12 miles of resorts to attract visitors and provide jobs. For example, Miami Beach is a mile wide and nine miles long. They get 28 million visitors per year and that supports 200,000 jobs. The weather is similar to Miami as is the water temperature. Palestinians are known to be good businessmen. With some start up loans from the World Bank many new enterprises will develop and grow. Before the recent war hundreds of thousands of Palestinians worked in Israel and that can resume. These are ambitious hard-working people and given the opportunity

Test gap

Back in the 1970’s and 80’s the schools began to deemphasize the importance of using phonics to teach reading in favor of something called the whole language method. Mississippi, a state that ranked last in reading skills went back to phonics in 2013. They had a special two-year training program for K-3 teachers and passed legislation that students who could not pass the reading test given to third graders would be held back. They would then be giving one on one training by specially trained teachers. The result is that Mississippi students now rank number three. Should this system be tried in other states? Should some states use AI for individual one on one teaching. The income gap and the test score gaps are two of the biggest problems facing the country. The test gap is particularly harmful since it impacts minority students the most.

GDP

The trade imbalance effects the GDP. The GDP combines the personal consumption, private domestic investment, government expenditures and net exports. Net exports are imports minus exports. For 2024 the situation looks like: Personal consumption $19.9 trillion Private domestic investments $5.3 trillion Government expenditures $6.8 trillion Exports $2.0 trillion Imports $4.1 trillion Total $19.9 plus $5.3 plus $6.8 plus $2.0 minus $4.1 equals $29.9 trillion. This shows how the negative balance of trade effects the GDP. If exports equal imports the GDP would be 19.9 plus $5.3 plus $6.8 equals $32 trillion. The US GDP per capita in 2024 was $85.810. If exports and imports were equal the GDP per capita would be $91.515. This is why the government is using tariffs to equalize imports and exports. US manufacturing is increasing in all areas. For example, GE appliances invested a historic $3 billion and Samsung and LG have expanded their US based plants in items like washing machines and refrigerators. This is all part of bringing manufacturing jobs back home.

AI teacher

Ask Google does smaller class size improve learning and you get Yes, fewer students per class generally leads to improved student learning and achievement, with the most significant benefits seen when class sizes are reduced substantially in the earliest grades and for disadvantaged students. Smaller classes allow for more individualized attention, increased student engagement, improved academic performance, and reduced achievement gaps. However, benefits are most pronounced with large reductions in class size (e.g., fewer than 20 students), and the effectiveness depends on maintaining teacher quality. This opens the door to AI teacher. All students have individual computers and the powers to be get together and taking the best parts from the best teachers devise the AI teacher. It will be designed to teach students how to thing not what to think. Every class, every lesson can be immediately analyzed with feed back and grading. Parents can be kept abreast on a daily basis. It will be two-way communication from student to the AI teacher. It is one on one education. There will still be a need for the classroom teacher especially in the lower grades but the teacher will have time to spend on things other than the fundamentals.

New jobs

In the recent past the US trade deficits have increased dramatically and today stands at $1.2 trillion. Up until the 1960 the US normally had a trade surplus but this changed as globalization became the new world economic system. The result was the decline in manufacturing and the rise of the financial industry. This meant stagnant wages for working people and high profits for big business and the executives that worked in these businesses. The income gap soared based not on productivity but on favoring the financial sector and this was not based on merit. While a specific average CEO salary for 1950 is not readily available, the average CEO's pay was about 20 times the salary of the average worker during that era. This was a period of lower income disparity between CEOs and employees, with CEO compensation increasing to more than 600 times the average worker's pay by 2020. It is not reasonable to assume that today’s CEOs are 30 times more productive than those in the 1950’s. The country and indeed the Western world is now reversing this trend and the US will once again become a manufacturing power house. A recent poll said that 25% of respondents feel they would be better off working in a factory. This would be a three-fold increase over the 8% who now are factory workers. These new factories will be using the latest technology and AI to increase productivity which means higher wages and benefits. High schools and tech colleges along with on-the-job training will increase the value of the employees and add to the efficiency of the operation.

Type of racism

The origin of modern eugenics (late 19th century) Francis Galton coined the term meaning good birth. Galton believed that human society was hindering natural selection by protecting the weak. He argued that selective breeding should be applied to humans to improve the race. Historical eugenicists used a range of methods to eliminate "undesirables," primarily by curtailing reproduction and, in the most extreme cases, through extermination. These practices, which were based on the pseudoscientific belief that complex human traits could be bred in or out of the population, disproportionately targeted marginalized groups, such as people with disabilities, immigrants, and racial minorities. Less than 4% of the population is represented by Black females of child bearing age and they have 40% of all abortions. Some might consider this a type of eugenics.

Murders

Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson was elected on April 2023. In 2024, Black Chicagoans were disproportionately affected by homicides, making up 78% of the victims despite being 29% of the population and 22 times more likely to be killed than White residents. Hispanic residents were also disproportionately impacted, making up 18% of homicide victims and being about 5 times more likely to be killed than White residents. White victims were the smallest group, representing the baseline for these disparities. This means that less than 4% of murder victims were White. This doesn’t seem to alarm anyone and could or should be considered racism.

Catch 22

Over-policing vs. Under-policing: North Minneapolis faces the paradox of historical over-policing, which can inflate crime data, alongside a reality of being under-protected and underserved by adequate police resources, notes the University of Minnesota Twin Cities and the Department of Justice. Here is the dilemma. A new police chief is hired because crime is out of control. He finds out that 80% of the crime happens in 20% of the city so he assigns more police in that area. Over time crime decreases and the citizens are satisfied. A few years later some enterprising report does and in debt study which shows that disproportionate number of minorities are being arrested and convicted. This awakens groups like the ACLU and demands that changes be made so the police are moved to other parts of the city. In time crime increases in the minority areas and citizens demand that the police do something. It’s a catch 22.

Campus

In today’s world many people wonder why colleges and universities have changed and there are number of reason but one rarely discussed is the increase in women in academia. In the past 50 years the number of female professors has doubled from 25% to 54%. In 2020, 85,230 male and 104,950 female students earned a doctoral degree in the US. In a nut shell women have become the majority of teachers in universities. If you agree there are differences between men and women you would expect some changes when the percentage of women in a position increases rapidly. In 2020 women earned 74% of the PhD’s in psychology and 20% of the PhD’s in physics. In some ways these two careers require similar skills like critical thinking but in other ways the skills are quite different. A physicist needs a strong background in math whereas a psychologist needs a strong understanding of human nature. How do these differences change the culture on campus?

Medical abortions

The abortion pill came out in 2000, a year in which there were 1.3 million abortions. By 2023 that number had decreased to 900,000 even though the population had increased by 50 million. During that time the number of medical abortions (using the pill) increased to 63% and many of these are not recorded so it is assumed that the number of abortions is not decreasing only the reporting. Many medicated abortions go unreported, especially self-managed abortions conducted outside of the formal healthcare system. This is a well-documented issue that affects the accuracy of abortion statistics in the United States and other parts of the world. Some states offer legal access to these pills without a prescription from a doctor and as those spread to other states it will become more difficult to count abortions because many will occur in the privacy of a woman’s home with no doctor involved. Many suggest, that in the future it will be a common practice for women to have amniotic fluid tested early on and medical abortions to be used to discard any fetus with potential problems.

Courts

People are often concerned about the court system becoming political. This has been in the news since the Supreme Court now has 6 six judges who are considered more conservative. Since Trump 2.0 the lower courts have been active in blocking presidential executive orders but they too have been somewhat political Of the 30 judges who partially or fully blocked a Trump administration's executive actions in 38 cases, 26 were appointed by Democratic presidents Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and Joe Biden. The result is that liberals are complaining about the Supreme Court and conservatives are complaining about the lower courts.

European migrants

Mismanagement of immigration policy can lead to a quick decline in a country. A good recent example is Sweden. This was a country that industrialized, had natural resources and high levels of professionalism in its workforce pushed forward by exports. It was a high-tech capitalist country with a solid welfare system providing good education that enabled entrepreneurship an innovation. The Swedish people were compassionate and welcomed Muslim immigrants from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan in the 2000’s. These were people fleeing war torn countries and the Swedes open their doors. The Muslim population increased to 12% but the new immigrants failed to assimilate and this led to neighborhoods where police were not welcomed. In these areas there is poverty and gangs leading to unrest. Sweden is now changing its immigration policies to become more restrictive, shifting focus from asylum-based to mandating that migrants adhere to honest living to avoid deportation. The rationale is to address issues such as crime, fraud, and the rise of undocumented migrants. Similar situations are happening in other European countries like France and Germany. Migrants with criminal records are being deported across Europe with Germany deporting 20,000 in 2024.

Data centers

The genius of Elon Musk is on display in Memphis, TN. He took 100 acres that was formally an Electrolux appliance factory and in 122 days converted it to the largest data center in the world. Then in three weeks he installed the computers and the entire one-gigawatt plant will be operational by early 2026. These plants use so much electricity that the power source must be set up before the plant can operate. Memphis could not supply that much power so Musk purchased a nearby abandoned power plant. He brought in gas turbines from closed plants in Europe and installed them at the old power plant site. The future of data centers depends on adequate power supplies and this means providing a private power source for each new plant. They will start with natural gas turbines but in the near future small nuclear reactors will take over.

SMR's

As many of the dire predictions regarding climate change have failed to materialize it is time to take a closer look at renewable energy and at wind and solar in particular. First off wind and solar are intermittent since the sun doesn’t always shine and the wind doesn’t always blow which means a backup source of energy is needed. Some feel this can be batteries but current technology is inadequate. Second both wind and solar take up lots of space. A one-gigawatt solar field requires 4,500 acres, a one-gigawatt wind farm 8,000 acres and a one-gigawatt natural gas power plant about 8 acres. Third since the solar fields and wind farms are installed many miles from the use points, they require long cross-country transmission lines. Forth the mining, processing and disposal of the materials needed for wind and solar is detrimental to the environment and thus most of these materials currently come from China. Fifth, batteries cannot be used for airplanes, ocean liners, heavy construction and farm equipment and rail trains which means there will still be a need for the diesel and jet fuel. The only realistic solution to climate change is nuclear power. Small modular reactors (SMR’s) cam be produced on and assembly line and shipped to the use point on semis. This removes the need for long transmission line and they operate 24/7 and need no backup. Using the latest gas turbines both uranium pellets or thorium can produce both electricity and heat. The reactors can be used to produce hydrogen by electrolysis of water and diesel and jet fuel can be produced by using hydrogen and carbon dioxide taken from the atmosphere and returned to the atmosphere when burned for a carbon neutral cycle. Cars and small trucks can use hydrogen for fuel and the only biproduct is water. The reactors have walk away safety meaning no meltdowns and the government is fast tracking the approval process which was the main reason for high building cost.

Mamdani

New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani has moved into the lead with a combination of standard democratic policies and some that are considered extreme. He favors raising taxes on the rich to provide universal child care, freezing rents and offering free bus service. This is the standard liberal approach to redistribution of income. He said there should be no billionaires but he would work with them to pay for some social benefits. He has proposed city owned grocery stores to be placed in poor neighborhoods. He suggested to defund the police stating they were racist, anti-queer and a major threat to public safety but has since back off of this idea. He wants to create a new “Department of Community Safety” that would deploy mental health care teams, rather than armed officers, to handle certain emergency calls involving people in crisis. He is a defender of Palestinian civil rights and accuses the Israeli government of committing a genocide in Gaza. He uses the phase “globalize the intifada” a call to violence against Israeli civilians. He is an active member of the Democratic Socialist of America, a group that advocates for universal health care, immigrants’ rights, tuition free college, a 32-hour work week and getting rid of mandatory jail time for some crimes. He has not said he wanted to get rid of jails but he supports an “Agenda for Decarceration” that includes proposals to eliminate cash bail, decriminalize drug possession and prostitution, and fight the construction of new jails.

Europe

Europe is slowly sinking into a morass of economic and social quicksand. Over the past 30 plus years Europe has moved to replace fossil fuels with green energy. While doing this most countries, other than France, began the process of closing nuclear power plants. In a dramatic example of not thinking things through, they thought they could replace fossil fuels with wind and solar only to discover that there was not much wind or sun. The push toward EV’s neglected to consider Chinas influence on the market which all too soon produced better EV’s at lower prices. Then the US introduced reciprocal tariffs on EU goods and many European countries, like Germany, were heavily dependent on exports. When Russia invaded Ukraine, the European countries stopped buying Russian natural gas before they had set up adequate replacements. This caused a spike in energy prices which is still adversely affecting countries like Germany. Many countries are reducing production of autos and chemicals and moving plants to the US. Then, many European countries following post WW 2 guest worker programs, backed by compassionate leaders allowed mass migration of Eastern Europeans and Middle Easterners to enter Europe. Many of these new people were unable to assimilate due to language and cultural differences and this led to criminal activities. Muslims are facing discrimination and disproportionate numbers are being incarcerated and this is leading to unrest. As the countries find it necessary to cut back on social programs the people are protesting, most notably in France. The US has stopped financing Europe’s defense and they must now spend more on their own military which is putting pressure on the social programs.

Criminals

In a recent group discussion, the subject moved to public safety. What could be done to make neighborhoods safer. One person suggested that putting criminals in jail would help. That was reinforced when it was noted that most crime is committed by repeat offenders. Later in researching this, the facts were startling. While the overall rate varies by definition and jurisdiction, studies from the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) show that about 66% of state prisoners are re-arrested within three years of their release. More broadly, a significant proportion of the prison population consists of repeat offenders, with some studies indicating that over 90% of state prisoners have either prior violent offenses or previous nonviolent convictions.

Crimes

When Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg campaigned, he did not promise to prosecute Trump. Here is what he said. "I have investigated Trump and his children and held them accountable for their misconduct with the Trump Foundation. I also sued the Trump administration more than 100 times for the travel ban, the separation of children from their families at the border. So I know that work. I know how to follow the facts and hold people in power accountable." A Manhattan jury found Trump guilty of falsifying records to cover up hush money paid to Stormy Daniel. Letitia James made public statements during her 2018 campaign about investigating Trump. She said he was an “illegitimate president” and an “embarrassment”. In 2024 James successfully won a fraud case against Trump and the judge barred Trump from operating any business in New York and fined him $350 million dollars. The New York Supreme Court through out the fine and the case will eventually go to the US Supreme Court. In both of these cases there is concern that Trump was guilty before the trial. Some say, this smacks of the Stalinist Levrentiy Beria who said, show me the man and I’ll show you the crime.

UN

Most people were in favor of the UN back in 1945 when it started but after watching it in action their minds were changed. By the mid-1980’s American approval of the UN dropped to 28%. Today Trump spoke at the UN and castigated them for their ineptness. The UN is one of the main stays of globalization whose main purpose is to redistribute wealth. They push for migrants to move to developing countries, they push for low carbon footprints and this leads to the transfer of manufacturing. In recent years the UN has become more political. For example, the UN General Assembly passed 140 resolutions against Israel from 2015 to 2022, while passing 68 against all other countries combined. The US has also vetoed numerous Security Council resolutions concerning Israel. Many delegates come from poor countries where people are going hungry and the delegates are wined and dined in the expensive New York restaurants. Like so many organizations the UN has lost its way. There is much it could accomplish under the proper leadership but they are all talk and no walk. Many feel the time has come to revamp the whole organization.

Data centers

A nuclear power plant produces about 1000 megawatts (MG) and some plants a bit lower. A 1000 MW plant is equal to one gigawatt (GW). The US is currently operating about 5,000 data centers using about 5 GW’s of new power and the demand is for 50 GW’s. There are 10,000 more data centers on the drawing boards and they would like to plug into the local power plants to avoid depending on the grid and to avoid long transmission lines. They will compete with local public and be willing to pay a higher rate. This will cause great consternation among the public users and will put pressure on data companies to build their own power plants. While these data centers will use less than ten percent of US power, the grid cannot handle the increase. A government watch dog agency says that data centers must bring their own power supply. The 50 GWs of additional power needed by 2030 will require $500 billion in new investments. The need for more power is immediate so the best short-term solution is to build natural gas plants but the longer term looks to nuclear. Nuclear provides a small land foot print, no pressure on the grid, no transmission lines, 24/7 power and no carbon emissions.

Europe

Trump is forcing Europe to save itself from economic collapse. Since the EU stopped buying oil and natural gas from Russia, utility costs have risen dramatically. Today the price of natural gas in the US is 3 dollars while Europeans are paying 10 dollars. The cost of electricity Europe is 43 cents and in the US 13 cents. The result is that many chemical companies and steel companies are closing and some are moving to the US where energy costs are lower. There are 50 large German companies thriving in the US because of low energy prices and the customers are nearby. To understand how Europe will come back, use the US as the example. In the 1920’s the US produced 40% of the worlds manufactured goods and then the Great Depression hit and things came to a stop. Ten years later the US began to manufacture war materials and the economy rebounded. After the war the US continued manufacturing by switching from weapons to consumer goods and by 1950 was once again producing half the worlds manufactured goods. Europe must now reignite their economies by starting to manufacture materials for their national defense and to supply Ukraine with weapons.

Good jobs and change

Trump came on the scene as an outsider. He was never elected to public office and even today is not a regular politician. He got attention by being outlandish. His idea was that any news is good news to get his name recognition up. He was considered a joke and TV stations reached out to him and gave him the publicity he needed. Behind the laughing and snickering by the press stood a man who realized that the American middle-income worker had been left behind in the race for profits. Millions of workers gave up their good manufacturing jobs for cheap TVs. Trump realized that the glory days of the 50’s and 60’s had given way to a service economy at the expense of the factory job. While corporate profits grew the middle-income group lagged behind and the income gap widened each year. Trump went after the establishment and they fought to hold onto their privilege position. The middle group had not seen their real wages increase for 40 years while wages in the service area improved. People began to wake up and in the 2016 election 67% of white voters without a college degree voted for Trump. These are the people who were considered die hard democrats. The vary personality traits that upset the elite appealed to the working people. They liked his bluntness and political incorrectness. They heard regular politicians promise to increase their station in life using the proper verbiage and realized that it had all been just talk. For many, Trump is vulgar but to others he represents change and that is what the working people were hoping for. They are willing to overlook his unorthodox ways in order to get better jobs. His attempts to bring back manufacturing jobs is still questionable but it is a start.

Wood burning

Here is a headline from a climate magazine on Sept 22, 2025 Leaders promised to cut climate pollution, then doubled down on fossil fuels. Many predicted this as the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015 was seen as a farce. It was a lot of feel-good speeches with no enforcement. Most now understand that if these countries had followed up on their promises the world would be in a depression. Wind and solar cannot replace fossil fuels. Only nuclear can do that but nuclear does not offer the new social programs that come from wind and solar. Climate was the excuse to introduce new ways to redistribute wealth from rich western countries to poor underdeveloped countries. It was a laudable goal but misleading. The West must help countries develop nuclear energy programs. A vast portion of the world’s population, about two billion people, depend on wood for heating and cooking. The reliance on open fires and inefficient stoves, fueled by wood, contributes to millions of premature deaths from smoke inhalation, according to the WHO.

H1-B

H1-B visas are special visas sponsored by tech companies to bring in STEM workers to help fill the shortage of techies needed by industry. The program has been misused by some companies who use the new immigrants not to add to their staff but to use instead of US citizens in order to get by with lower salaries. Recent changes introduced a mandatory $100,000 per visa to curb abuses. Tech companies are objecting as is India where 70% of the visas are issued. This is another example of putting American first.

Families

I listened to Erika Kirk, the wife of fallen Charlie Kirk, speak and was impressed with their emphasis on the value of the family. Many Black writers, like Mary Wright Edelman founder of the Children’s Defense Fund and heroin of Hillary Clinton, said the two things that held families together in the post-civil war era were the family and the church. John Wooden, the famous coach of the UCLA basketball team, recognizing that most of his players were inner city Black kids, also emphasized the importance of families, when he said the most important thing a man can do for his children is to love their mother. Since the passing of the civil rights laws in the 1965, the Black family has been destroyed. The number of out of wedlock births increased from 25% to 70% and this led to poverty for most. Black females in the child bearing years represent 4% of the population and they have 40% of the abortions. Black married couples with children have an average income of $94,500 while Black single mothers’ average income is $34,500. Black boys from single mom families have the lowest test scores, the highest dropout rates, the most discipline problems in school and the highest incarceration rates. This is from Google AI The family is the bedrock of society means that the family unit serves as the fundamental foundation upon which society is built. It is the basic unit where individuals first learn values, socialization, love and cooperation, shaping future citizens and the overall health of the community. A strong family system is seen as essential for a stable, harmonious, functional society. It appears once again that Black lives don’t matter.

Unions

The income gap in the US has been growing since the early 80’s. It started slow but has accelerated in recent years and is a major problem in the country. One of the more important reasons is, that in business a small group of people determine the economic security of the employees. This is the standard business model. Many people suggest that government would be more efficient, if it acted more like business but some are now realizing that business would be more effective, if it acted more like government. In government people elect the leaders and if they don’t produce the desired results they are not reelected. In other words, people have a vote in determining what happens. One way, that business can and does operate in this way, is through unions. As unions gain a voice in the decision-making process, they bring power to the workers. Union wages and benefits are increased. The current plans to reindustrialize the country, presents the ideal opportunity for unions to grow in numbers and influence. Unions can reverse the 50-year trend and begin to slow the growth in the income gap. The push by nationalist to end globalization has encouraged some unions to join in the reindustrialization movement. Government officials who want to bring back manufacturing jobs should encourage the unions. The establishment will oppose this but that is part of the current trend of turning away from the status quo complex, that now controls the country. This will be opposed by all the powers that have been running things. It will be a David/Goliath battle and unions can be the stones.

Memphis

The population of Memphis is 650,000 with Blacks at 63%, Hispanics at 10%. The police force is 52% Black, the mayor is Black and the city council has 9 Black members and 4 Whites. Memphis has the highest crime rate of any US city including 393 murders in 2023. Of those 85% were Black and 90% of those were killed by other Blacks. Memphis schools rank in the lowest third in the country. Home ownership is 46% compared to the national average of other cities at 66%. If Black lives matter, then some changes are needed.

Kimmel

The controversy surrounding the Jimmy Kimmel show is being explained in two ways depending on politics. Liberals contend that the FCC threatened the network and they folded out of fear of losing their license. Conservatives say Kimmel was shut down because of ratings and his remarks about Kirk were just the straw that broke the camels back. The ratings of late-night TV shows have been on the decline for years an in particular the last ten years. In 2015 Kimmel averaged 2.4 million viewers and that dropped to 1.5 million by 2021. Average viewers in the critical 18 – 49 demo dropped from 1 million in 2015 to 261,000 in 2025. Ad revenues declined from $439 million in 2018 to $220 million last year. While all the major late-night shows were in decline a new late-night show on Fox called Gutfeld started in 2021 with 2 million viewers rising to 3 million today. Much of the decline of the major networks is attributed to the constant negativity against Trump. Overtime, conservative viewers begam to tire of the constant anti Trump monologues and many question the wisdom of turning off half of the country. Many feel it was a mistake for the FCC to get involved as these programs were already dying. There is an overall trend in the country for media to move to the right. This includes both print and TV and it is part of the move away from traditional news to social media and podcasts.