Endless war

Turmp has put Europe in a quandary. They don’t have a central army but small armies in a dozen countries and no one country is in charge. The don’t have the military equipment nor the money to defend Ukraine against Russia so they hold meetings in the hopes of convincing America they are organizing to fight for Ukraine. They are not willing to sacrifice their social programs to build up defense, so their easy out, is to get the US back on track to aid Ukraine but Trump is not having it. Trump’s position is that he wants the war to end and will allow US private industry to invest in Ukraine, which means civilian Americans on the ground in Ukraine, which means that Russia will not attack for fear of starting a war with the US. Europe wants to continue the war but they want the US to lead the way with money and equipment. In other words, they are the globalists and they want to keep on with the old way of doing things. They want the US to give them protection and favorable trade deals. They haven’t figured out that those days are gone. Many oppose Trump’s plan but they have yet to come up with another plan. So far, their answer is to just continue the endless war.

K12

How have schools changed since 1950. In 1950 there were one million teachers in K-12 and the student/teacher ratio was 27. In addition, there were 200,000 non teacher employees. In 2022 there were 3.1 million teachers in K-12 and the student/teacher ratio was 15. Added to that were 4 million non-teacher employees. The population had doubled but the number of teachers tripled. The major difference is the number of non-teachers increased from 200,000 to four million. During this time the test scores declined and the racial gap increased. The US spends 6% of GDP on education which is in the top three in the world. In the 1950s, student test scores, particularly in math and science, were generally considered to be relatively high compared to later decades, with some data suggesting a peak in achievement around the mid-1950s. In spite of a lot of new technology designed to

Innovation

The US has the highest GDP per capita at $81,695. Europe is second at $60,350 US workers are considered highly productive due to a combination of factors including significant investment in technology and research and development (R&D), a culture of innovation and risk-taking, access to advanced capital equipment, a skilled workforce, and a business environment that encourages competition and adaptability, allowing them to produce more output per hour worked compared to many other countries. With the reshoring of manufacturing and the advances in new equipment along with AI the advantage that the US has will become greater. In 2023 the US spent $783 billion on R&D compared with $410 billion in Europe. Most new technology was invented in America -- from personal computers, lasers, mobile phones, video games, photocopiers, and even the internet.

Education

Senator Berney Sanders was on TV complaining that the rich people, like Elon Musk do not worry about public education because they send their children to private schools. In the 2021-2022 school years, about 9% of students were in private schools. This amounts to 4.7 million students. One part of this that is rarely mentioned is the number of teachers children who are in private schools. Public school teachers send their own children to private schools at a rate more than twice the national average–22 percent of public educators' children are in private schools compared to the national average of 10 percent. The department of education has once again come under attack. The department founded 45 years ago was an attempt to improve education and in particular to close the gap between White and Asian student’s vs Black and Hispanic. It has failed and there is a need to try a new approach. This is almost an act of desperation since most people realize that the problem starts in the home. Moving things back to the states will look like the government is taking action but it is not likely to have much of an effect on the test score gap. To talk about the home problems makes many people uncomfortable but until that happens there will be little progress made toward solving the problem. Most of the problems in schools are about discipline and discipline is learned in the home growing up. All too often, especially in minority homes there is no father.

Waste

Over the years congress has moved away from their oversight duties and allowed the bureaucrats to check on themselves. As if this weren’t bad enough the bureaucrats have joined forces with other parts of the economy. They have united with the universities, social media, Hollywood, Silicon Valley, the national press and much of the democratic party to help hide the distribution of government money. Now this cabal is faced with the uncomfortable scrutiny of DOGE. Slowly, day by day, new revelations of the misuse of government funds are being uncovered but so far most of the press is not revealing the waste. Fox News will daily expose some new bazar program but the rest of the media is only covering the loss of some benefit to some group. If DOGE is able to unravel the mess and the public is made aware, then the whole system will be in jeopardy. The key here is, will the public even know about this. The one thing DOGE has in its favor is Trump’s messages on Truth Social along with the bully pulpit.

Subsidies

Sunnova is the latest solar panel company to get into financial trouble. After receiving $3 billion from government, they are facing bankruptcy. Recall Solyndra that received $500 million and folded and First Solar who got $2 billion from the Investment Reduction Act and their stock rose to $300 last June and today it closed at $130. These companies cannot compete with Chinese solar panel companies but they keep getting subsidies. Investigations show that a lot of money was given back in the form of campaign contributions but much of the money is unaccounted for.

Cuts

The US has been protecting Europe since the founding of NATO in 1949. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1990 this was no longer necessary and Trump let them know it was time for them to provide for their own defense. The result was something that should have happened 30 years ago, Europe has” New plans from the European Union to increase defense spending could potentially mobilize as much as 800 billion euros ($841 billion), European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Tuesday.“Europe is ready to massively boost its defense spending,” she said in a statement. This is only in the planning stage but it is a recognition that it is time for Europe to take some action to be less dependent on the US. The Trump policy is that the world can get along without the US be responsible for the world order. It means bringing home military personnel, closing basis, cutting back payments to NATO, the UN and other organizations like the WTO and the WHO. This reduction will include domestic spending as each congressmen’s pet project will be cut. The press which is part of the establishment will point out everyone who suffers from any cut and put pressure on maintaining the old way of doing business. Since congress has proven unable to cut it will be left up to the voters.

Natural gas

Natural gas is the cleanest fossil fuels and the reason the US has reduced its CO2 emission to 1960 levels even though the population has increased from 180 million to 330 million. The US has enough natural gas to ship around the world to replace in many cases the burning of coal. This helps in the fight against climate change. Since 2020, US natural gas exports have increased significantly, especially in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG). The US has become the world's largest LNG exporter, surpassing Australia and Qatar. Yes, the United States is building several liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities, including Plaquemines, Corpus Christi Stage III, Golden Pass, Rio Grande, and Port Arthur In January 2024, President Biden temporarily halted new approvals for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. The pause was put in place to study the impact of LNG exports on the climate, economy, and national security. U.S. President Donald Trump has ended the moratorium on new liquefied natural gas export permits imposed by his predecessor Joe Biden in January 2024.

Wages price

Why tariffs? Consumers benefit from low prices from imported goods. If the US wants to make products at home, then the cost of labor will drive up the cost of goods. Improvements in productivity (new equipment and AI) in new US production facilities, along with lower transportation cost from shorter supply chains and lower energy cost (new small nuclear reactors) can offset some of the increased labor cost. New technology from AI can also reduce cost as well as lower energy cost. One way to force the issue is by using tariffs. If some foreign country controls the supply of TV sets and they cut off supply it is an inconvenience but if they control pharmaceuticals or computer chips it can be dangerous. Are the American people willing to pay a higher price to pay workers a higher wage? Recent experience says yes. In 2000 a McDonalds employee earned $6.25 per hour and a Big Mac cost $4.23. In 2022 the wages rose to $12.50 and the Big Mac cost $5.93. Labor costs represents about 30% of overall cost so this is a proportional increase. As reshoring grows, prices will rise and this will cause wage/price inflation. Depending on how long it takes for productivity to catch up, prices will continue to rise. This could be an issue in the upcoming midterms but there are no solutions except for time. The outsiders running for office will not need a solution just the problem.

Panama

Another example of Trump using financial and military solutions to political problems has emerged with the Panama Canal. First Trump threatens to retake the canal with force if necessary. This is followed up by an agreement between the US investor BlackRock to purchase the ports at both ends of the canal from a Chinese based company for $23 billion. The canal is once again under control of America without having to use any US government money or military

College

The cost for a four-year degree at the University of Minnesota is $125,000 and the average grad ends up with $20,000 in student loan debt. If that same person worked four years at McDonalds at $17 per hour, they would earn $134,000. The difference between the two people is paying out $145,000 or taking in $134,000 or $279,000 to start. The average humanities grad starts out at $50,000. The humanities include the academic study of philosophy, religion, history, language arts (literature, writing, oratory, rhetoric, poetry, etc.), the performing arts (theater, music, dance, etc.), and the visual arts (painting, sculpture, photography, filmmaking, etc.). Assuming the difference in salary of $17,000 ($50,000 - $34,000) holds, it will take the graduate 16 year to recoup. There are many other factors to be considered but this is one of them. For example: Fewer than half of students graduate from four-year colleges within four years. The six-year graduation rate is often used to measure how long it takes students to complete their degrees. In that case it would take 24 years to recoup the college cost.

A new world

During the cold war the world was bipolar in that the two major powers were the Soviet Union and the US. When the Soviets fell the world became unipolar with the US standing alone much as it was when WW 2 ended. After the end of the USSR in 1990 the Americans once again stood alone at the top but then came the end of globalization and today, we face a multipower world with the US, Russia, Europe and China all contending for power. It would be to the US advantage to help Europe get along with Russia and open free and fair trade with both. A strong Western alliance will offset the growing threat from China and help preserve peace through strength. This will return Russian gas and oil to Europe and save their economy while releasing the grain from Russia and Ukraine to help feed the people in sub-Sahara Africa. All of the mineral wealth of Russia and Ukraine can once again flow free while Europe starts the rebuilding of Ukraine. The US will then be free to work with Saudi Arabia and using the Abraham Accords, help to rebuild Gaza, using the money from the rich Arab oil countries, along with construction companies from Israel and labor from Palestine. A new Golden Age can be a possibility.

Defense

Trump has told Europe to start paying for more of their own defense since the US is no longer going to keep them safe. The result in just a few weeks was: EU chief proposes plan to ‘urgently’ increase defense spending by mobilizing around $840 billion This is a significant increase since: EU members spent 326 billion euros on defense in 2024 - about 1.9% of GDP, according to the EU's European Defense Agency. Keep in mind that the US spends 3.5% of its GDP on defense. Part of Trump’s plan is to cut defense spending and this will help.

Labor

The great American manufacturing economy that built the country up from the end of WW2 to the 1980’s was replaced by a combination of sending jobs overseas and growing the financial businesses. Over the past 40 years the money makers have been running the economy at the expense of the working people. Capital has become king and labor second to producing more capital. New phrases like mergers and acquisitions, leverage buy outs, hedge funds and too big to fail banks have taken control of the country but all that is about to change. The Trump revolution means that labor will once again assume its proper place as an equal to capital. As products are made and sold in America the wages paid to workers will be higher than those in foreign market and thus prices will rise along with inflation. Countering this will be the higher productivity from new and improved manufacturing processes and AI. Added to that will be the savings of shortened supply chains meaning lower transportation cost and lower energy cost by maximizing all energy sources including nuclear. The American worker will once again have a shot at the American dream.

Fat

People often say that changing the ship of state, is like turning around and air craft carrier and for the most part they are right. This is normally acceptable because people are usually uncomfortable with change. We like our old slippers. This is why Trump has caused so much turmoil. Not only is he moving faster than normal, he has a different approach, one that is not the way government usually operates. Every president since Kennedy has promised to cut the fat out of government and everyone applauds until it is their fat. The congress is responsible for spending, so they set about looking for fat. They form committees, hold meetings, research and write letters but in the end the debt keeps rising. Despite the gallant efforts of congress, the debt in 1960 was $300 billion and today it stands at $36 trillion which is a rise of 7.6% per year while inflation was half that at 3.6%. If congress had just held the increase to the inflation rate the debt would be a very reasonable $3 trillion. The people in power, want to handle the fat removal in the same way it has always been done, so that nothing will change. Trump will come under severe criticism from each group as their fat is trimmed and the press will broadcast every situation where cuts are made and the pressure will mount to go back to the old ways. Stations like Fox will air the savings and the rest of the media will cover those who lose their fat. Those who risk losing the most fat

Spending

The differences between the democrats and republicans can be seen by comparing the Trump presidency vs Biden’s. Biden passed the $2.2 trillion dollar Inflation Reduction Act which means government will spend all of this money on various projects mostly involving going green with $900 billion designated for things like solar panels and windmills. Biden past the $280 billion dollar CHIPS Act providing government funds for investments in computer technology. In the past 5 weeks Trump has secured $2 trillion in private money investments in things like high tech. When the government prints money to spend on these projects it causes inflation but when the private sector invests it provides growth. The big social media companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta are investing billions in nuclear power to run their data centers. This is more private spending.

Capital

As the world slowly comes around to realizing that wind and solar are not the answer to climate change, nuclear looks better and better. One of the reasons rarely discussed is the upfront cost or what is called capital cost. As the baby boomers moved from the group with the highest earnings to retirement the available capital for investment declined rapidly. These people who ten years ago were investing for retirement are now putting their money into safe havens where it is no longer available for capital investment. This shortage of investment funds hurts the wind and solar industry because the major cost is upfront since the fuel is free. With nuclear the cost is spread over the lifetime of the project because most of the cost is fuel.

China

As observers watch the slow decline of the Chinese economy the questions arise, will Xi Jinping resort to military violence as happened in Tiananmen Square in 1989 and the answer is probably not. The general thinking is that as long as the dictator controls the military, he will remain in power but that may not be the case. In China’s case it could be much like what happened in South Korea in 1987. The people went on massive strikes and the economy came to a halt. Foreign investors pulled their money out and the IMF and World Bank froze assets. If this happens and Xi chooses to put down the people with force the military will see that when all collapses they will no longer be paid and they will revolt as happened in South Korea. After the collapse elections were held and democracy took hold and the economy boomed to where South Korea became a thriving country. The South Korean GDP went from $170 billion in 1987 to $1.7 trillion today, a tenfold increase in two generations. This is one option for China.

Negotiating

Trump diplomacy works from the standpoint of a businessman instead of a politician. Trump suggest a peace deal to end the Ukraine War and it blow up in the Oval Office. Zenlensky went home and met with European leaders who promptly met in London to take control of the negotiations. The US is now on the sidelines as once again Trump turns the problem over to the people most effected. If they decide they need US help then Trump will offer the same plan. He will meet with Putin and get an agreement of land for peace and no NATO membership. The peace keeping will be a large contingency of US workers in Ukraine mining rare earths. If the Europeans are not in agreement, they can handle things on their own. In either case once again the US will not be involved in a foreign war with money or troops.

Palestine

When Trump suggested that Gaza be turned into a Mediterranean Resort the general thinking was that he did not understand how that part of the world operated. Once again those who are critical of Trump did not appreciate his ability to make a deal. This week Arab countries including Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qutar, the UAE and others are meeting to determine the fate of Palestine meaning Gaza and Hamas. They propose to put the Palestinian Authority in control and are willing to put up $53 billion to rebuild Gaza. The plan is in three steps. First to build temporary housing, second reconstruction and rehabilitation and third establishment of a new governing body. The group will meet again in Saudi Arabia to formulate plans to visit world capitals, including Washington DC, to gather support for their plan. This group accepted Trump’s challenge to come up with a better plan than his. If they are successful the next step is a Palestinian State as part of a two-state solution. This type of diplomacy is contrary to past US methods. The US always wanted to maintain control but Trump has turned the problem over to the Arabs. This means no US money, troops or equipment.

Europe

In contrast with Trumps rhetoric, he placed more sanctions on Russia than any president. During Trumps first term oil imports from Russia declined. Trump increased US oil production from 9 million barrels per day to 13 million and the price of oil dropped from $95 to $70. This hurt the Russia economy. During the Ukraine War the US sent billions to Ukraine in the form of free cash and military equipment while maintaining sanctions. The Europeans sent billions much in the form of loans that must be repaid. Europe purchase of natural gas and oil from Russia was more than the money sent to Ukraine to fight the war. The EU is spending more money on Russian fossil fuels than on financial aid to Ukraine, a report marking the third anniversary of the invasion has found. They are putting money into Putin’s pocket faster than they are taking money out of his pocket. Such is the way the war is going and while it will continue to go as Biden said, for as long as necessary. The bottom line is that they are financing Putin’s war machine with the purchases of oil and gas while they finance the Ukrainians with money and equipment. They are paying both sides to continue the war. It is much like saying we can’t let Putin win because he will take over Eastern Europe and we can’t let him lose because he will use nukes. Some strong leader must stand up and point out the absurdities of it all.

Jobs

The question is are American jobs coming back home and the answer is Yes, manufacturing jobs are coming back to the United States, a trend known as reshoring. More than 60% of US and European manufacturing companies plan to reshore some of their supply chains by 2025. Industries leading the effort are Electronics, Appliances, Computers, Chemicals, Medical equipment and Transportation. Trump being a businessman and not a politician promised to do this in 2016. Here is a speech that politician not businessman Obama gave in 2016. In June 2016, President Obama, in a town hall in Elkhart, IN, asserted that American manufacturing was merely a thing of the past. When asked by and audience member why blue-collar jobs continues to disappear, the 44th President admitted that good-paying jobs in America were moving overseas under his watch. Mr. Obama asserted that “some of those jobs of the past are just not going to come back”. “When somebody says, that he’s going to bring all those jobs back, well, how exactly are you going to do that? What are you going to do” Mr. Obama asked? There’s no answer to it…What magic wand to you have?” This, in a nut shell, is why the democrats lost the working people.

Healthcare

Canada’s relationship with the US is similar to the Europeans in that they both rely on the US military for their national defense and they both use the money they safe on defense to provide for national healthcare. In 2024-2025, Canada's military spending is projected to be 1.37% of its GDP. In 2023, the United States spent 3.4% of its GDP on its military In 2024, the U.S. trade deficit with Canada was $63.3 billion Because of this Canada wants to maintain the status quo while the US is looking for change. If the US reduced their defense spending from the present 3.4% to the 1.37% that Canada spends it would save the US government $500 billion dollars per year.

Ukraine

As the fervor over the Trump/Zenlensky spat subsides and reality checks back in, where does the world stand. Trump has clearly laid out the US positions saying that there will be no US military protection but the US will set up manufacturing in Ukraine, near the Donbas region and this will deter any Russian invasion for fear of killing American workers. Zenlensky’s position is to gather the forces of Europe and stand up against Putin. Trump is fine with that which puts the ball in Europe’s court and removes the US from the war. This means Europe will have to divert some of its social spending to defense spending, which is highly unpopular with people who have grown up with lots of benefits, because the US was paying for their defense. Just as some were saying that the democrats need a Joe Rogan, the Europeans need a Trump. From the European standpoint, as the dust settles, the plan that Trump proposes is looking better all the time. Trump will go to Putin and say that the West will not allow Ukraine to join NATO and he can keep Crimean which he took in 2014 and he can have the Russian speaking areas of Ukraine, mostly in the Donbas region in return for ending the war. This allows Putin to save face and go home with the victory of keeping NATO away from the borders of Russia. This will save Ukraine from many more years of destruction and loss of life and allow Europe to spend the money that would have gone to the war effort on rebuilding Ukraine.

Migrants

One of the major issues of the last election was the problem of illegal immigration. This leads to two questions. First how did this happen and second what can be done about it. There is an old adage that says the road to hell is paved with good intentions. Many people saw the immigrants as people who were trying to escape situations where their lives were in jeopardy and they only wanted the freedom and opportunity that they believed America had to offer. Compasionate Americans wanted to help and it became a classic case of the unexpected results of good intentions. It resulted in many thousands of young girls and women being molested as they travelled across the 2,000 miles of Mexican out back semi wilderness. Even after they arrived, they suffered abuse because of their vulnerable immigration status. The cartels made billions of dollars helping these unfortunate victims to illegally enter the US. Over 600,000 criminals entered the US and 75,000 young Americans died each year from fentanyl poisoning. An estimated 300,000 children have gone missing and many are in danger from traffickers. Thousands on illegals are put up in hotels while American citizens sleep on the streets. So, the second question is what can be done about it. The first step is to secure the border and let the world know that illegals are no longer welcome. Second the criminals should be rounded up and deported or put in prison. Third the missing children should be located and placed in safe and secure situations. Fourth those remaining should be given work permits so they can get off of public assistance and start paying into social security, Medicare in income tax. These work permits should be designed to lead to green cards and in time a path to citizenship. Meanwhile the problem of schools must be addressed. Migrant children should spend most of the school day in English second language classes. These can be taught by adults who are proficient in English. It will be four hours per day learning to speak, read and write English. Other school subjects are less important and available only as electives. During the last two years of high school students can learn about civics and basic finances.

Nuclear power

In the 1960’s early environmentalist began protesting against the use of nuclear energy. This was somewhat counter intuitive since their main concern was the carbon dioxide produced by burning fossil fuels and nuclear was carbon free. There had been no accidents and waste materials were stored on site. Groups like Green Peace convinced the people that nuclear accidents could happen and mining for uranium was harmful to the ground water. Not a single new reactor began construction between 1978 and 2013 and only one since then. More than 100 orders for new reactors, many already under construction were cancelled in the 70’s and 80’s bankrupting some companies. Not everyone agreed with Green Pease and early opposition emerged as a diverse alliance of ranchers, miners, loggers, hunters, off road vehicle drivers, oil workers and farmers. As CO2 emissions rose many felt that moving away from nuclear was a mistake and are reconsidering. The way the environmentalist won the battle was to add so many regulations under the guise of safety that the time to build and the increased cost killed the industry. The quickest and easiest way to revitalize the industry is to remove unneeded regulations. There is still opposition coming from environmental groups who are unaware of the new reactors that are safe and produce very little waste. Other opposition comes from the fossil fuel industry and the New Green Deal.

Ukraine

The pro Ukrainian protest across the country have been misnamed. They should be called anti Trump protest. These people are the same ones who said at the start of the war that we cannot let Putin win because he will take over Eastern Europe but we cannot let him lose because he will start WW 3. So, what is their solution? They have none. Like everything else the progressives do, their motivation is to be against everything Trump and thus the protest. Most experts agree that Ukraine will never get back Crimea or Donbas so the question is where will the demilitarized zone (DMZ) be located. It will be near the Donbas which is where the US can set up rare earth mining. As more Western companies start operations it will mean more Western workers and thus provide security for Ukraine against another Russian invasion. The US will provide the capital and the engineering needed to build and operate the mines and then share the profits with Ukraine. In this way Ukraine can repay America for the billions that were wasted fighting Russia. Meanwhile Western nations can begin rebuilding relationships with Russia and in the process save Europe from collapse.

Europe

Europe is making the same mistake that the US made prior to Trump. They are wedded to globalization where the US accepted their high tariffs and they expected the US to protect them from Russia. The fell in love with the idea that wind and solar could replace fossil fuels and they are now in economic decline because their price of energy is too high. They want the US to continue helping in the Ukraine War where they see no reasonable end to the conflict. They are setting up barriers to free speech and their immigrants are not assimilating. Their populations are aging and they are not having enough children. Their governments are overburdened with social programs that are no longer being financed with low defense spending. Polls show that the people are pessimistic about the future as the high cost of utilities hurts household budgets. They are depressed as they watch job loss and companies moving to the US to avoid high energy cost and to take advantage of the US consumer market. There salvation is to end the war and bring back cheap Russia gas, to forget about wind and solar and reopen their nuclear power plants, to establish free and fair trade with the US and to move away from China in regards to imports and exports. Much like the democrats here in the states, they know what must be done but they are unable to do it. It will take a strong leader to rise up and lead the way.

NYC

The strange case of New York politics. In 2021 Governor Andrew Cuomo was forced to resigned following allegations of sexual misconduct by 11 women. No criminal charges were filed. Cuomo is now being pushed by the democratic party to run against the current mayor of NY City Eric Adams, who is accused of accepting bribes. Adams ran afoul of President Biden, when he asked for federal aid to pay for illegal migrant and Biden had the Justice Department investigate him, for misuse of funds. It was Biden who told Cuomo to resign. How soon we forget when it is convenient. The MeToo women are silent as a man who only four years ago was force out of office for sexual harassment is now coming back and at the same time people like Al Sharpton are quietly watching a White man replacing a Black man with party approval. It is often said that party trumps country and, in this case, politics trumps morality and race.

China

The spectacular rise and fall of China. China was a backward country economically speaking for many years but in 1980 they opened the door to the free market while maintaining communist control of the government. The West thought that this would be the end of communism saying that once people experience economic freedom, political freedom would follow but this did not happen. The country experienced economic growth and in 2000 China was allowed into the WTO and the growth accelerated rapidly, making China the envy of the world. In 2013 Xi jinping took over and was worried that the private sector was getting too powerful, so he instituted various controls to bring back power to the central government. He removed any competitors and in 2018 set up the rules that allow him to be president for life. Then things took a turn for the worst as a combination of events collided. During the fast growth millions of people moved from the country to the city for better jobs. This meant fewer children would be born since having a large family on the farm helps but not so in the city. To further aggravate the problem, China introduced a one child policy in 1980 and during Covid many died, so Chinas population is way down, some say less than 900 million. Official government data still shows 1.4 billion. As the economy grew so did wages and so other countries started getting foreign investment that had previously gone to China. When Trump placed tariffs on China this caused further economic problems. Last week Xi declared that the government would ease some controls to allow the private sector to reinvigorate but some say it is too little too late. China’s demographics where there are too many old people and not enough young people has put them on a downward path from which they cannot recover. Chinas economy depends on exports and these are challenged by other countries like Vietnam and Indonesia.

Voters

Would FDR be reelected in today’s political world? Experts say probably not. He entered the White House in January of 1933 when the country was in the midst of the 1929 depression. In 1936 he was reelected and the country was still in the depression. In 1940 he was reelected with the country still in a deep recession. Finally in 1941 the war started and the country begin to grow rapidly and finally ended the 12 years of recession and depression. Today the voters are not so patient and would demand change after four years.

FDR

The fast-moving Trump administration is often compared to FDR’s famous first 100 days. The big difference is that FDR had a huge majority in congress with 313 seats vs 117. The senate was only 59 democrats in 1933 but that increased to 69 and then up to 76. A super majority in the senate is 60 so the democrats could pass any law and they did. Many of these laws were later declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court. When that happened FDR tried to add 6 more justices to the court but that was too much for even the democratic controlled senate and it failed. FDR still won the long-term battle with the court for by the time he ended his presidency he had appointed eight of the nine justices. History has shown that one party control leads to the courts determining policy.

Afghanistan

It’s been four plus years since the US pulled out of Afghanistan and time for a review of what happened. Trump had proposed to withdraw but he was not reelected so Biden took over. The generals recommended that Biden remove the people, then the equipment and then the troops, leaving behind 2,500 troops and maintaining Bagram Air Base. Things were going slow and Biden saw an opportunity to end the occupation by the 20th anniversary of the war. This meant complete withdrawal by 9/11/21. Against the wishes of his generals, Biden pulled out the troops leaving the people and the equipment behind. The withdrawal culminated in the Abbey Gate terrorist attack on August 26, 2021, which killed 13 U.S. servicemembers, wounding another 45, and killed more than 170 Afghan civilians. The withdrawal concluded on August 30, 2021, when the last U.S. military aircraft left Afghanistan. This caused Biden’s approval polls to drop below 50% from which he never recovered. He wanted to go around the country giving speeches about how he ended a 20-year war but instead had to talk about the rapid removal of people, bringing back memories of the disastrous withdrawal of US troops from Saigon, something he said would not happen. Administration officials have stressed that the operation was “the largest noncombatant” evacuation in U.S. military history. More than 123,000 people were evacuated, including 79,000 since Aug. 14. The news reported this was the largest withdrawal since Dunkirk but Churchill said, “We must be very careful not to assign to this deliverance the attributes of a victory. Wars are not won by evacuations.” Today there are still Americans in Afghan who want to come home and Biden broke the US cardinal rule of leave no man behind.

Reshoring

As the US leads the world away from globalization, the trend toward reshoring continues to grow. Areas rapidly expanding include electrical equipment, appliances, computer and electronic products, chemicals, transportation equipment, and medical equipment and supplies are among the industries that are benefiting from reshoring. This promotes shorter supply chains which means lower transportation cost. Add to that lower energy cost due to increased energy production, the newest more efficient factories and increased productivity from AI and these factors could help offset the increased cost due to higher wages for American workers. In the beginning wages will rise faster than the production cost savings and the result will be inflation. As time passes productivity will out pace wage increases and inflation will moderate. The number of industries coming home will continue to expand especially in the medical drug area.

Ukraine

Trump has introduced the world into a new type of diplomacy where he combines economic power with military power to achieve a dominant negotiating position. Add to that his willingness to walk away leaves him with a strong hand. In his recent spat with Zelensky, the result was a win win for America. Either Zelensky accepts the fact that US workers mining rare earths will prevent a Russian invasion or the US will no longer provide aid. In either case it stops the US from participating in an endless war, which in the long run will destroy Ukraine. The only thing left for Zelensky is to convince Europe to provide him with war materials and that will still leave the US out of it. If Europe agrees they are committing to the concept that Putin can’t win or he will rebuild the old Soviet Union or he can’t lose because he will start WW 3, which leads to the inevitable conclusion that the war must go on and on. In a few days when all the dust settles Europe will recognize what happened and convince Zelensky to come back and accept Trumps proposal. When this happens, the US will provide the capital to build and operate a rare earth mining and processing operation where the profits are shared between the US and Ukraine. This will allow the US access to the needed rare earths and a way to recapture the money wasted on the war. European countries can then begin the process of rebuilding Ukraine instead of blowing up Ukraine. This will bring Russia back into the world market and once again supply Europe with natural gas and both Russia and Ukraine will once again begin shipments of grain.

Whose in charge

Many government observers have suggested that the real power behind the scenes is the bureaucracy. There was some proof of this when the Attorney General asked for the Epstein files and was ignored. A similar thing happened when info on USAID was requested. The Inspector General said, we have long encountered delays or outright refusal by UN agencies, in providing requested investigative information to Office of Inspector General (OIG’s) Special Agents. An organization cannot run if the employees do not follow the line of command. As far as the Epstein files go there must be some very damaging information and the government does not want to reveal it. Supposedly there are videos of important people in compromising situations and therefor things will be held up for the old faithful excuse of national security. Congress by the constitution has oversight responsibility but when they ask for documents the bureaucrats refuse sighting national security.

Ukraine

The dispute between Trump and Zelensky is a good example of how difficult negotiations can be but great for the public to see. Trump wants to set up a plan to mine rare earths and then use the US workers as a safety net against a Putin invasion. The idea is that Putin would not want to risk killing any US workers. Zelensky wants Trump to say that if Russia invaded the US would side with Ukraine. This leaves the world in the same situation as before. They cannot let Putin win or he will take over Eastern Europe and they cannot let Putin lose because he will use nukes. Thus, the war will just continue on and on. Zelensky must now decide if he wants to fight on without US support or change his mind and start by bringing US workers into Ukraine. In either case the US will no longer be funding the war and Trump feels this is in the best interest of the American people. The question now is, will the Europeans continue the fight without US support. If so, it will be their Vietnam or Afghanistan. In the long run it means the destruction of Ukraine and a severely weakened Russia and a lot of money down the drain.

Rare earths

The discussion about rare earth elements in Ukraine suggest that there are known deposits. Rare earths are found in every country but not always in the concentration needed for a good return on investment. Normally rare earths are found in the left overs from mining other metals most commonly iron ore. The US will likely set up mining and processing plants near where the iron ore tailings are stored. This gives a head start since the raw ore is already broken down into smaller pieces.

Tax cuts

The Trump tax cuts of 2017 were the largest in history in dollar amounts. How they affected revenues can now be evaluated? They are up for renewal this year. 2015 $3.25 trillion 2016 $3.27 trillion 2017 $3.22 trillion 2018 $3.33 trillion 2019 $3.46 trillion 2020 $3.42 trillion 2021 $4.05 trillion 2022 $4.09 trillion 2023 $4.44 trillion 2024 $5.08 trillion 2025 $5.48 trillion est

Democrats

Every week, some democratic leader comes out saying that the party needs to change. They saw how Trump exploded the republican party and now they must do the same. The strategy of the democrats for the past ten years has been to attack Trump’s personality and character and it hasn’t worked. Calling him Hitler, a dictator and a threat to democracy is not working. The must start talking policy. What can they do to help the voters, especially the low- and middle-income workers? Here are some starting points. Raise the income tax rates on upper income earners. Tax capital gains at the ordinary income rates. Get rid of carried interest. Use that money to raise the child tax credit to $5,000. Help companies to train workers for the new AI industry jobs. Help these new workers to form unions. Move away from the New Green Deal and promote small nuclear reactors. Close the door on devisive cultural issues. Expand on Biden’s America First idea by promoting reshoring. It is time for a change in strategy.

Nobel Winners

Michael Moore has contributed to the migrant debate by pointing out that we may be deporting a future Nobel Prize winner. This could be but it could also be said for the 64 million abortions since 1973. There have been 312 winners since 1973 and 70% or 218 have been Americans. During this time 125 million Americans were born and the total population is 330 million. It can be calculated that among those aborted there would have been over 100 Nobel Prize winners. That many be a more accurate calculation than the winners among the deported

IRA

Words matter is an old adage and people in government understand this so often the names of different things are changed in the hopes of offering a better interpretation of the subject. One of the more recent examples is the Inflation Reduction Act passed in 2022. Upon examination of the Act, it was discovered that almost all of the $1.2 trillion dollars was designated for improving energy use to promote climate change. In retrospect this Act is seen by many as one or the reasons why inflation rose which means that the inflation reduction act became the inflation production act. In this example the name did not increase the understanding of the issue but rather obscured the meaning.

Midterms

At this point it appears that the big issue for the upcoming midterm elections will be the prices of consumer goods. These will be determined by two competing factors. On one side holding prices steady, will be lower energy and transportation cost. Added to that will be the increase in productivity from new factories using AI. On the other side will be the higher labor cost by using American workers instead of cheap foreign workers. This could also mean wage/price inflation. If prices are higher than wages, it will be an issue but there will be no solution to the problem, unless it would involve sending manufacturing back overseas and end up making the same mistake that was made in the 1980’s. It will be an issue without a plausible solution but in issue in any event. Other factors that could have an influence on voters’ decisions would be things like the Ukraine War and the border.

Chutzpah

There is an old Yiddish word Chutzpah, meaning audacity and a good example is the recently released book by CNN pundit Jake Tapper. The book in titled, “Original Sin: President Biden’s Decline, Its Coverup and His Disastrous Choice to Run Again”. Tapper along with the rest of his coworkers led the way, when it comes to covering up Biden’s cognitive decline. His book points out how almost all of the press denied any problems with Biden’s mental condition and then they proceeded to cover up. There motivation was that Biden was the only one who could defeat Trump since he had done it before. It reinforces the idea that people did not vote for Biden rather they voted against Trump.

Russia

One of the more interesting parts of the Trump revolution that is not getting enough attention, is his proposal to cut defense spending. Putin recently said that Trump’s idea of both countries cutting defense by 50% is doable. They could then bring China into the group and all three countries could use that money to build goods instead of weapons. As the US begins its ten-year journey to double the industrial base, there is a need for skilled labor and the defense department is loaded with engineers and such. The country could be manufacturing appliances, electronics and other consumer items instead of bullets and bombs. There would be funds for additional social programs and a start on lowering the debt. Putin says he would welcome US capital to build up his industry. Russia has large amounts of undeveloped hydropower and lots of aluminum ore. They also have more rare earths than Ukraine. American engineers and American capital could revitalize Russia and the US could get badly needed materials from Russia. Putin suggested that the two countries share in the development and benefits from helping Russia, to move from a war industry to a consumer goods industry.

Job

In my early career, I worked for a large corporation and often times my boss was not at the same location, so I would get a call from him asking me to do something. In time I would call him back and say that the job was done, or if it wasn’t, what the holdup was and when it would be resolved. What I would never do is not call him back. Recently the federal government sent out emails inquiring as to what the employees were doing and many did not respond. In most cases if the boss asks you to do something and you refuse your job is in jeopardy. A company runs on the chain of command and cannot otherwise operate efficiently

GDP

Americans often hear about the national healthcare in Canada and wonder why the US doesn’t have that. One reason is that Canada spends 1.37% of their GDP on defense and the US spends 3.45%. This is like most of Europe where the US is their defense.

Rare earths

The US has large deposits of rare earths but people are not ready for the mining and processing these elements because of environmental concerns. In early 2024, American Rare Earths announce a rare earth deposit at Halleck Creek in Wyoming that could be the world’s richest. Thus, it was welcome news for the environmental groups when CNN reported today that Ukraine had agreed to a $500 billion share of their rare earths and other minerals in exchange for the aid the US had already provided. This will be a return on the billions that the US has sent to Ukraine in their war against Russia. This means that the mining and processing of these valuable elements will be done in Ukraine.

Ukraine cost

In trying to find out how much the Ukraine War has cost the US, I find a number of values. From the Washington Post on Feb 24, 2025 ….nearly $300 billion spent, more than 150,000 lives lost and over 10 million displace. From congressional records thru 2024. Congress appropriated $174 billion thru five supplemental appropriations. From the CATO Institute on APR 9, 2024. Should congress decide to pass additional funding the aid could top $240 billion. After checking many sites, I found that $175 billion was the most common number. From Europe from the Institute of World Economy on Dec 31, 2024 $132 billion European Commission Feb 24, 2025 $135 billion Global aid to Ukraine since 2022 has reached a staggering 400 billion euros committed as of December 2024, or about $430 billion, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. If you use the most common figures of $175 billion from the US and $135 billon from Europe the total is $310 billion.

3rd term

Trump occasionally talks about having a third term as president and he is immediately challenged by the press. If any two-term president could convince two-thirds of both the House and the Senate to approve and then get three-fourths of the state legislators to approve then just maybe he should get another term. In today’s environment to get even a simple majority is considered a big victory.

Budgets

In 1998 the states received $246 billion dollars from the tobacco settlement. This money was to be used for healthcare cost and to fund tobacco prevention programs. As it turned out many states used much of the money for other programs to help balance the budget and some states even traded the long-term payment plan for upfront money and in the process gave up the long-term periodic payments. In 2021 states received $21 billion in opioid payments and this money is also being misused to cover general budget items. This is coming after billions of covid relief money used for social programs is running out and will now be supplemented by opioid money. It is not just the federal budgeting program that has run amok but the states are following the same path.

Trump

The press is unable to keep up with Trump because they are used to presidents who tackle problems one by one. Trump is looking to change the world and that means pulling problems from various parts of the globe and working on them simultaneously. He wants to reduce imports especially from China, while solving the disputes in the middle east while ending the war in Ukraine. He makes an announcement and the press goes that way and then another announcement the press goes another way. He sets up negotiations about Ukraine in Riyadh and leaves out Zelenskyy. He tells Europe they must defend themselves. He talks about rebuilding both Ukraine and Gaza. He puts equivalent tariffs on all countries and then throws in making Canada a state and buying Greenland. The press just runs from one shining object to another never thinking of how all things fit together. Trump wants to reshape the world. He wants to bring a lasting peace to the Middle East using the Abraham Accords with Saudi Arabia forming a partnership with Israel, he wants to neutralize Iran, end the war in Ukraine, push Europe to standing up for themselves, bring jobs home hopefully before China collapses, reduce US deployments around the world, and bring Russia into an economic partnership with the West. While all of this is going on the press is fretting over DOGE which distracts them from the rest of the world. Trump will not bring down prices or lower inflation but he might well accomplish enough to blow through the next election. If successful he will set his sights on nuclear disarmament and nuclear power.

Social media

One of the many changes brought about by the expansion of social media, is that the masses are getting a good look at how the elites have been running things. In Trump’s first term he aggravated the legacy press by announcing his every thought on Twitter. This left them with little to do as far as getting viewers and the number of newspapers declined as clicks on TV declined. This term Trump is out everyday talking about what he is thinking and doing and the media has nothing to do except repeat what has already been spoken. Broadcast TV viewership has been on a steady decline for the past 20 years and Trump is accelerating this decline. There are nearly 6,000 newspapers that in the US and two shut down every week. Projections show that as of the end of last year the US has lost one-third of the newspapers it had 20 years ago. While the legacy press gave up on its responsibility to hold the government responsible, the new press has taken over and it has made it difficult for the government to hide.

Non elected

The fact that Elon Musk is a non-elected person is proximately in the news as if this is something out of the ordinary. There are 435 elected congressmen and 100 elected senator and the legislative branch has 31,000 employee who are not elected. The judicial branch has 9 judges and 30,000 employees none of whom are elected. The executive branch as two elected officials and 4 million unelected employees.

Iran

When talking about the situation in Gaza, the subject of Iran always comes up. Iran is vulnerable since Israel has knocked out their air defense, they have lost their helper Assad in Syria, Hezbollah is in disarray, Hamas is reeling and the Houthis are in civil war. This leaves open two courses of action. First the US can keep increasing the sanctions and if necessary, go to an oil embargo and hope the people of Iran will rise up and overthrow the government. Second, they can tell Israel that the US will keep China and Russia at bay and allow them to choose. They will not attempt to hold back Israel and will offer whatever military assistance they need. In the past year, Iran sent 500 various types of missiles into Israel and they have declared that Israel has no right to exist. The question is will Iran strike out against Israel as a last-ditch effort to save their country.

Congress

For the past 75 years, sometimes referred to as the post war period, the United States was the economic and military power of the free world, or the noncommunist world. With the fall of the Soviet Union in 1990 the US became the super power of the world. Just as the people in the US are demanding bureaucratic accountability, the US is pushing the world to accept more responsibility for their own wellbeing, including their own defenses. Too many countries have fallen under the spell of America and it is time for these countries to start taking care of themselves. The US will no longer be the guarantor of free trade, or the major contributor to the UN or NATO. The US is $36 trillion in debt and this must be addressed. One of the first steps is to stop paying the dues for the world, start bringing home US military forces and start being treated as a fair partner as in fair trade. Just as those committed to the status quo are complaining in the US, the globalists around the world are complaining about the US. The time of change is upon us and it will not come easily but the growing debt demands change. Can we count on congress to promote this change? Here is what happened when they tried 30 years ago. The Gramm-Rudman-Hollings Balanced Budget Act, also known as the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985, was a law that established federal budget deficit limits and automatic cuts. Then what happened The Gramm-Rudman-Hollings Act of 1985 was largely unsuccessful in reducing budget deficits, and was replaced by the Budget Enforcement Act of 1990. (BEA) The BEA was extended by the Omnibus Reconciliation Act of 1993, and again by the Balanced Budget Act of 1997. It expired in 2002, but the Democratic Majority adopted some of its principles, known as PAYGO, or Pay-As-You-Go, in their rules during the 110th Congress. What happened to PAYGO Under the S-PAYGO Act, new legislation must be paid for, on average, over 5- and 10-year periods. Yet under the American Rescue Plan Act of 2022 there is nowhere near $742 billion in non-exempt funding to sequester, meaning OMB would be unable to comply with the law. So much for PAYGO

DOGE

Most economist agree that the government cannot continue to deficit spend and so what must be done. The current system is not working since each year the debt grows higher. Many in congress object to Trump’s approach of allowing the executive branch to cut spending. They much prefer the old way of allowing congress to cut but history has shown that congress in unable to do that. In the past, when congress has made an effort to cut, those who are directly affected challenge any cuts and congress backs down so nothing is done. Aside from the waste, fraud and abuse what congressman is going to cut expenditures in his district. One solution has been suggested that Trump make the cuts and then refer them to congress for approval. Trump can do his part but congress will submit to the same old pressures and nothing will be done. Here is what happened when congress tried. The Gramm-Rudman-Hollings Act of 1985, also known as the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act, was a law that aimed to reduce federal debt and deficits. The law established automatic spending cuts and deficit targets So what happened. Congress enacted a reworked version of the law in the 1987 Act. Gramm–Rudman failed, however, to prevent large budget deficits. The Budget Enforcement Act of 1990 supplanted the fixed deficit targets, which replaced sequestration with a PAYGO system, which was in effect until 2002. What happened to PAYGO. The policy was discarded during the Bush Administration in 2002, which led to an increase in the budget deficit due to unrestricted spending and tax cuts. Congress cannot control their own spending. They need spending to get reelected.

California

There are some things like hurricanes, tornados and earth quakes that cannot be controlled but other disasters are caused by bad policies. The recurring forest fires in California followed by mud slides can be minimized with proper government planning. California's forests haven't been adequately cleared due to a combination of factors including environmental concerns, bureaucratic barriers, and opposition from certain environmental groups who have historically resisted logging and controlled burns, leading to a buildup of undergrowth and dead trees which contribute to large, destructive wildfires when conditions are dry. The backstory: The intense flushing of water from the Delta to the Bay – rather than by pumping to Central Valley farms, storage facilities, and southern California communities – is driven by a 2019 legal document known as an “Incidental Take Permit.” California sends billions of gallons of water into the ocean each year, especially during heavy rainfall events. In 2023, nearly 95% of water that collected in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta flowed into the Pacific Ocean. The recent loss of 12,000 homes due to fires has caused the governor to request $40 billion dollars to help rebuild. California has wildfires every year, and the number of fires has been increasing. The fire season is getting longer and starting earlier, with some fires occurring year-round.

treaty

In January of this year England signed a 100-year treaty with Ukraine promising military aid and $3 billion pounds each year. England will receive mineral rights for things like rare earths and oil and gas. This was not in the news but when Trump suggested a deal for rare earths it was prominently in the news.

Fructose

When corn starch is boiled in water with a small amount of acid it converts to corn sugar which is glucose. The next step is to add an enzyme that converts the glucose into fructose. This is done because fructose is thirty times sweeter than glucose. This high fructose corn syrup is then shipped in liquid form and added to soft drinks and other products. Often times it is dried and used in many food products. The problem is the way the liver metabolizes fructose. Instead of making it available for readily usable energy like it does with glucose, it converts it primarily into fat, which is then stored in the body. High fructose corn sugar is used in almost all processed food products. Table sugar called sucrose also contains fructose but in smaller amounts. Table sugar is not healthy food and products containing sugar should be avoided. With desserts the consumer has some control but fructose is added to so many products that is severely limits the choices. The removal of fructose would cause the price of most food products to increase so the risk/reward case needs to be evaluated.

Congress oversight

Sometimes the government oversteps its power by over regulating but that does not mean there is no need for government. Back in the early days of the country the buyer and seller of a goods were on equal footing. If a horse was sold, both sides knew how to evaluate the value of the horse. As time past the producers of goods became experts while the buyers remained in the dark. The joke today is if you can’t read the ingredients on the label then don’t buy it. What this leads to is government controls in order to protect the consumer. The governments main responsibility is to protect the people from foreign enemies and to provide safe products for consumers. The FDA monitors the complex processes of drug production and food safety and this is necessary in today’s society. All bureaucracies must be monitored less they try to take too much control. Congress cannot just authorize money for an agency and not over see how they are spending the money. Congress has failed in their oversight responsibility as witnessed by the absurd spending revealed by the DOGE. The congress must walk the line between no oversight and too many regulations.

First Solar

Most people remember the fiasco called Solyndra, a solar panel company started in 2005 with $570 million dollars from the government and went bankrupt in 2011 and the money disappeared. Not having investigated and therefor not having learned a lesson the same thing happened in the $1 trillion dollar Inflation Reduction Act where billions was handed over to First Solar. Since then, First Solar’s stock price has doubled and its profits have soared thanks to new federal subsidies that could be worth as much as $10 billion over a decade. Executives, officials and major investors in First Solar, the largest domestic maker of solar panels, donated at least $2 million to Democrats in 2020, including $1.5 million to Biden’s successful bid for the White House. After he won, the company spent $2.8 million more lobbying his administration and Congress. Now the picture has changed. First solar is facing the same problem that Solyndra faced. They cannot compete with low-cost panels from China. Their stock has dropped from $250 to $150 in the past five months. First Solar has also faced a securities fraud lawsuit, which the company settled for $350 million.

Hegseth

Pete Hegseth was the most strongly opposed cabinet appointee because the senators knew that Hegseth was going to make drastic changes and the bureaucracy is fearful of such changes. The rule of “There shall be a Secretary of Defense, who shall be appointed from civilian life by the President, by and with the advice and consent of the Senate: PROVIDED, That a person who has within ten years been on active duty as a commissioned officer in a Regular component of the armed services shall not be eligible for appointment as Secretary of Defense.” Has not been followed in the past two secretaries, General Mattis and Lloyd Austin but Hegseth will bring this back. In addition Hegseth will enforce Article 88 of the Military Uniform of Justices which says: Any commissioned officer who uses contemptuous words against the President, the Vice President, Congress, the Secretary of Defense, the Secretary of a military department, the Secretary of Homeland Security, or the Governor or legislature of any State, Commonwealth, or possession in which he is on duty or present shall be punished as a court-martial may direct. Retirees from the National Guard and Reserve components do not have their first amendment rights taken from them while military retirees who served on active duty do and live under the threat of court martial for violating Article 88 of the UCMJ Finally, Hegseth will end the practice of retired generals going to work for defense contractors as a conflict of interest. In the past these retirees have used their influence to solicit business from the Pentagon.

War

On CNN this AM, a retired Admiral, suggested that there is an upside to the Ukraine War by pointing out that most of the money the US sent in the form of military equipment was in fact, profits to US defense contractors. This explained in one short sentence what Eisenhower described as the military industrial complex. This Admiral is so enthralled with this kind of thinking he doesn’t realize that the average person does not see this as a good reason for war.

Policies

There were many writers and politicians on the republican side who left the party and went into obscurity. Just like Reagen destroyed the old time Rockefeller country club republicans, Trump as set aside modern conservative pundits like George Will and Bill Crystal and politicians like Romney and Pence. Trump is as close a third-party candidate as our two-party system will allow. Both sides of the establishment are in a dither and can respond only by denigrating Trump. The democratic party, which finds itself lost in the wilderness, continues to harangue against Trump instead of presenting policies that would appeal to the voters. It is not enough to be just against, you must also be for. Some like Dean Phillips and John Fetterman are making news by approaching Trump with questions rather than complaints. They ask what is it about Trump policies that seems to appeal to so many. How can we improve on them and still present the old-time liberal view point? We can embrace bringing jobs home, cutting the fat out of government, lowering taxes for working people and relegating cultural differences to the back burner. We can promote secure borders while pushing for a path to citizenship for migrants who are not felons. We can propose plans for a peaceful settlement to the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. The upcoming mid terms will be about prices and inflation but it takes more than just complaining, it requires solutions. Best to start thinking about those now.

Education

0ne of the biggest problems facing the country today is the gap in test scores. There are questions involving the legitimacy of the department of education. For many the K 12 education system is the modern-day equivalent of slavery. Black students are too far behind in learning, the have the highest drop out rate, the highest suspension rate and this drags them down for the rest of their lives. They all too often they end up in prison, they get the lower paying jobs, they have the highest single mom rates and lower life expectancies. Over the past 20 years the department has come up with No Child Left Behind in 2001, Common Core in 2010 and Every Student Succeeds in 2015 and none of these have helped. Ask any teacher what they think of these plans. The Department of Education was founded in 1980 and it has not helped. Maybe it is time for a change.

Used blades

Waste material from nuclear power plants is generally stored on site but if they were all gathered together, they would fit on a football field (1.3 acres) and be stacked 30 feet high. This is waste accumulated over 60 years. Used windmill blades present a more complicated problem. One site in Texas is 30 acres piled ten feet high, and 78% of used blades are sent to landfills. This is waste from 25 years. There are three other major storage sites in Wyoming, Iowa and South Dakota. In addition, used blades are sent to landfills in Africa and Europe.

Debt

I have heard the cry of wolf concerning the national debt for most of my life. I was not overly concerned since the debt remained at 50% of GDP for most of the years since WW 2. However, when Obama took office, it rose above 50% and has continued rising to this day. By the end of Obama’s term, it stood at 98%. During the Trump years the debt went from $20.2 trillion to $29.6 trillion and during the Biden term it increased to $36.1 trillion which is 122% of GDP. Experts say that the two ways to reduce the debt is by raising taxes or cutting spending but this has not worked in the past because when revenues increase the extra money is not applied to the debt but is used for new programs designed to buy votes. Cutting spending is not easy as everyone is now witnessing so what is the long-term answer. The US can lower the debt if the increase in growth (GDP) and interest rates are in balance. The growth will come with reshoring but at the start interest rates will be too high. In time if growth is sustained the interest rates will fall and the debt to GDP ratio will decline. This balance will not be achieved during the Trump years but by the next administration.

Ukraine

This is something I wrote a few weeks back As the world stands by and witnesses the destruction of Ukraine along with far too many lives it is time to once again outline the reason for the war. The West does not want Putin to win because he will take over all of Europe and the West doesn’t want Putin to lose because he will start a nuclear war. The only option the West can see is to continue the war indefinitely. How did reasonably intelligent people get themselves in this predicament. How are so many people still willing to sit back and go along with this. The only answer is a peaceful negotiated settlement. Recently there has been little in the news regarding the possibility of Russia using nukes. It could be that people have come to understand the futility of their original position on the war and are now striving for an all-out victory for Ukraine. If Putin once again raises the drum beat of nukes will people revert back to the situation at the start of the war.

Muckrakers

As a play on words of Pete Seegers song, where have all the flowers gone, the question today is where have all the Muckrakers gone. For the youngsters out there the term Muckraker refers to investigative journalist who exposed corruption in business and government As the massive misspending is being exposed by DOGE an enterprising reporter could follow up on anyone of the unusual spending projects and earn a Pulitzer. They could find out who sponsored the project and who got the money. These expenditures are so nonsensical that there must be some kind of mismanagement going on. They don’t pass the smell test.

Europe

Ann Applebaum, a long-time expert in European policy and no friend of Trump, was asked what she got from JD Vance’s speech in Munich and she was spot on. Her interpretation was that Europe can no longed depend on the US for protection and must set about defending themselves. This combined with fair tariffs is Trump’s policy toward Europe. In addition, NATO can no longer expect the US to pay most of the cost and provide most of the troops. The US can no longer be depended upon to act at the policeman of the world.

Press

On TV this AM, a discussion covered the liberal slant of the press and the question arose as to how this came about. One explanation starts with the founding fathers who suggested that the press act as a “watchdog” to keep the government accountable by informing the public about its actions. This was and still is the main purpose of the press but it has been expanded. In 1893 The Chicago Evening Post writer, Peter Dunne introduced the world to a fictitious character name Mr. Dooley who famously said, the job of the newspaper is to comfort the afflicted and afflict the comfortable, and this opened the door for the press to move beyond the government to private companies and individuals. Since that time the press has moved slowly to include non-government entities and this led to libel law to protect individuals. Most of the time the press is interested in large companies who act outside the law and the people welcome this. During the 20th century big corporations were aligned with the republican party and thus the press championed the workers by going after corporations. This started with legitimate complaints but in time became political and remains so to this day. The recent election has challenged this idea and many working people have now aligned themselves with the republican party. The press has not yet changed their perspective but that may come in time.

Trump

The poet Robert Browning said, “Ah, but a man's reach should exceed his grasp, or what's a heaven for. Trumps dreams for the future are many and some think impossible. He would like, To secure the border, set a path to citizenship for migrants, end the Ukraine War, have the oil rich Arabs join with Israel to rebuild Palestine, equal tariffs leading to no tariffs, use nuclear power to end climate change, lower taxes, smaller government including defense, reduce US military abroad, end the role of US being the policeman of the world, transparency in government and bring back the jobs that were lost because of globalization. Those who profit from war and globalization and secret government agencies will fight against these changes. The winner will be chosen by the voters.

Social seurity

It has been suggested, that instead of eliminating the tax on social security benefits, that the $25,000 exclusion which was established in 1984, be indexed to $75,000 based on the cost of living. This would mean that all most all those receiving SS would not be taxed but the upper income people would still pay tax on 85% of their SS benefit.

Inflation

The downside to Trump’s economic policies will be inflation. His policy is in five parts, lower taxes, maximum energy creation, fair tariffs, reshoring and reduce regulations. As the new industrial base doubles and is built using the latest technology including AI, the productivity will match the increase in wages but wages will lag behind early on and thus inflation. The only early way to reduce prices is lower cost energy but that will not match inflation in the early years and prices will rise. During the upcoming mid term elections expect inflation to be an issue.

Germany

If you import a $50,000 Mercedes Benz from Germany the import tax is 2.5% or $1,250. If you export a $50,000 Cadillac to Germany you pay a 10% import tax along with a 19% value added tax for a total of $14,500. This type of imbalance has been going on in many countries for many years and is one of reasons why the US has a trillion-dollar trade deficit. Germany has the 40th largest army in the world and spend 1.5% of its GDP on defense. The US has the largest army and spends 3.4% of GDP on defense. Germany like most European countries has depended on the US for protection since the end of WW 2. There are 30 countries in NATO and the US pays 20% of the budget. Germany has had a trade surplus with the US for forty years capping at $150 billion last year. As President Biden used to say, cmon man!

Revolution

The world is in the midst of a drastic change, some might call a nonviolent revolution and many are upset and afraid. The old ways of globalization are passing and a new wave of America First is redefining not only the US but other countries as well, in particular, those in Europe. The US has run a trade deficit every year since 1975 and last year it was one trillion dollars. This has been a bonanza for US trade partners but in many cases was the result of unfair trade practices. During these years the US paid for the defense of European countries along with paying the bulk of international groups like the UN, WTO and WHO. All the while various organizations financed by the US were spending money on programs that the people were not aware of and if they knew would not approve of. Waste and abuse have infiltrated many government agencies because congress did not provide oversight. Corruption seeped in and now the day of reckoning has arrived. Those who have been benefiting from this mismanagement are crying foul but the people are waking up to a new way of doing business. Unfair tariffs will become fair tariffs, and Europe will have to build up their own defenses and world organizations will have to get equal funding from all countries.

Deportation

Trump fired 20 immigration judges and Matthew Briggs the president of the union said Trump wants to remove illegals but needs judges to process them. He said there are 3.5 million pending cases but he did not mention the 1.4 million who have been adjudicated and deemed not eligible for asylum but remain in the country. The question is why haven’t they been deported. This 1.4 million represents only one half the number that Obama deported. This could indicate that Trump’s long-term plan is to find a path to citizenship for many of these people. Right now, his priority is to deport the criminals and find the missing children. The decision on the others is pending.

Trump

One of the most misunderstood things about Trump is that he is not a republican or democrat in the modern-day way of thinking. He is a pragmatist who has certain beliefs that he tries to follow. That is why he can take questions from any group and can change plans without fear of being ridiculed. His most fundamental principle is belief that America is the greatest country ever and his policies are directed toward making America even greater. He will evaluate social programs which will upset democrats and the defense spending which will upset the republicans. He is in the middle on abortion which upsets both sides. He wants to end the Ukraine War which will upset those who profit from war. He will secure the border which will upset both sides since one side is looking for voters and the other side looking for cheap labor. He wants free trade and will use tariffs to force other countries into fair trade. This upsets big business since but helps the working people. He is using RFK to go after Big Pharma and Big Food to make America healthy again. He is promoting nuclear power which will upset the greenies and big oil. He demands the Europe accept more responsibility for their national defense which upset them. He will no longer pay for the bulk of global organizations like the UN, WHO and WTO and this upsets the Davos crowd. The transition away from globalization may be the most profound change of the 21st Century.

Globalist

Politics has been so divisive that Americans think that the battle is between right and left but that is not the case. The battle is much bigger and is between the old ways of doing things as represented by globalization and the new way of reducing the influence of the globalist. There are many political leaders who have a vested interest in the past where world organizations influenced US policy but that is where the new battle lines are drawn. The US is no longer willing to be the policeman for the world. The US will no longer offer monetary support to global organizations and no longer protect the free trade lines of the oceans. Countries will be forced to be more responsible for their safety a economic growth. The change can be best illustrated by comparing the speech that Obama gave when he went to Europe and the words of JD Vance spoken this week in Munich. Here is Obama in Europe in 2009. We must be honest. In recent years we’ve allowed our Alliance to drift. Instead of celebrating your dynamic union and seeking to partner with you to meet common challenges there have been times where America has shown arrogance and been dismissive and derisive. Vance said that European democratic institutions and rights to freedom of speech were being undermined by cancelling elections and challenging free speech using words like misinformation and disinformation. He said the enemy within is more dangerous that the enemy from Russia or China. Obama received a Nobel Peace Prize for his speech but Vance will be criticized. The world is not yet ready to leave the old ways.

FDR

What Trump is doing with the tech billionaires is similar to what FDR did at the start of WW 2. He gathered together the titans of industry and told them he would dispense with regulations so they could maximize the war effort and this released the greatest war production machine in the history of the world. FDR hated Henry Ford because of his antisemitic position but he needed Ford’s help and in a few short years the Ford Plant at Willow Run saw one new B 24 come off the assembly line every hour. FDR set up the War Production Board and picked industry leaders who worked for a dollar a year to build the war machine. FDR called the CEO of GM William Knutsen who quickly resigned his six-figure salary and along with 300 other executives went to work for the Defense Department and became dollar a year man. Musk is the modern-day equivalent of GM Chairman Knutsen.

SMR's

There are currently more than 20 different companies developing small modular reactors (SMR’s) in the US and many more around the world. These companies are privately financed and do not need government subsidies. What they do need from the government is a review of the regulations surrounding nuclear power. Over the past 60 years the antinuke groups like Green Peace have joined forces with the fossil fuel industry along with the wind and solar groups to throttle nuclear development through over regulation. The Trump administration has taken a pro nuclear stance and is expected to review these regulations and bring them up to date in particular the safety requirement. The new technology in SMR’s provides for what is called walk away safety. This means that if the power is lost the process shuts down without any human intervention. The new processes not only reduce the waste products but use up stored waste. The two big objections to nuclear, safety and waste, have been overcome and the time is now right to solve the problem of climate change using SMR’s.

SS tax

There is currently a bill before congress to remove taxes from social security benefits. This will be of great benefit to wealthy people but not much help to low- and middle-income groups. A better approach would be to index the $25,000- and $32,000-dollar deductions to inflation. This tax started in 1984 and if properly indexed this would raise the deductions to $75,000 and $95,000 respectively. This means that only wealthy people would be taxed and this could help narrow the wealth gap. A typical couple who both worked and had $50,000 from SS and another $70,000 in income would pay no tax on SS.

NYC migrants

The case against Mayor Adams of NYC is a case study in how politics works. He was sailing along until he complained that President Biden was not doing enough to stop the inflow of illegal migrants into the city. This resulted in a federal court charging him with crimes of accepting money from Turkey which he used to help finance his reelection. The incoming Trump Justice Department then dropped the charges against Adams. This allowed him to continue his objections to protecting migrants by changing the cities sanctuary status. This was stopped by the city council who wanted to continue to fund and protect migrants. Once he was pardoned, he renewed his campaign to remove migrants and several attorneys resigned in protest. The city has spent $3 billion and expected to spend $5 billion in 2025 taking care of migrants many of whom are living in expensive New York hotels. The money includes $3 billion from the state. New York State is currently $180 billion in debt up from $64 billion at the end of 2023. The Comptroller estimates that 77% of asylum seekers are sheltered in hotels with the city leasing 15,750 rooms at a cost of $332 per day per person. This is total cost which included $165 for hotels. In April 2024, the Coalition for the Homeless estimated that more than 350,000 people were experiencing homelessness in New York City. As this information becomes public many people are starting to demand that something be done about the migrants. Those wanting to maintain sanctuary city status may be altruistic in their desire to help migrants or as some suspect part of the money is not going to help migrants.

Globalization

During the 50 years of globalization many white-collar workers watched in silence as factory jobs went overseas. The same can be said of government employees on the federal, state and local level. What these people experienced was lower cost for consumer goods like electronics and appliances. They kept their salaries and benefits. Each year they watched their mortgage go down and their pension go up. Times were good. The American dream was alive. The factory workers lost their high paying wages and all their benefits as factories closed and the rust belt formed across Middle America. All that is changing now as factory jobs are coming back home but the white-collar groups still seek special privilege. Factory workers tied to the assembly line can’t work from home but many government employees feel that it is their right. There will always be people who do more than their share regardless of where their work location is but many will become less productive. The rules are quite simple. If the boss says you come in to the office to work than you either do that or look elsewhere.

Demographics

There are a number of countries where the demographics are leading to slow economic growth. Typically, the people under 20 are still under the care of their parents, the people 20 to 45 are working and raising families, the people 45 to 65 are the investors and those over 65 are retired. The 20 to 45 group represents not only the producers but also the consumers and since the US is a consumption driven economy, this is where the growth comes from. The 45 to 65 are those whose kids are grown and the house is paid down and they are preparing for retirement by investing and they provide the capital to join with the labor of the 20 to 45 group to keep things moving. The over 65 group has removed their capital from the investors and put theirs into bonds, real estate and cash. The US is not yet suffering from demographics and will not if the migrants are given work permits leading to green cards leading to citizenship. The ICE people should focus on deporting all convicted criminals, finding the 300,000 missing children and getting the rest set up for citizenship. As the baby boomers die off the demographics will improve and with reshoring there will be good paying jobs for high school grads who will team up with AI to operate factories. This will lead to increased productivity which leads to better pay which with proper planning can exceed inflation. This is similar to what happened during the 1950’s and early 60’s.

Jobs

One of the fears concerning AI is the loss of jobs but when introduced properly it can not only create jobs but add value to each job by increasing productivity. Here is a quote from JD Vance at the AI meeting in Paris. We will always center AI workers in our policy. We refuse to view AI as a purely disruptive technology that will inevitably automate away labor force. We believe and will fight for policies and ensure that AI policies will make our workers more productive and we expect that they will reap the rewards with higher wages, better benefits and safer and more prosperous communities. In the past automation was allowed to move into manufacturing in a hap hazard manner and this often led to job loss. This time it will be more closely watched and be aligned with workers to make both more successful.

Germany

Europe of today is on a downward path to self-destruction. It all started in the 1980’s when Green Peace decided to end nuclear power and started the process which shut down all 23 nuclear power plants. Germany went all in on wind and solar but without realizing that they didn’t have much wind or sunshine. They followed this up with shutting down 15 coal plants with plans to shut down all by 2030. The big plan to replace nuclear with wind and solar fizzled out and was replaced instead with coal and Germany has lignite which is the dirtiest coal. Then the Ukraine War started and Germany shut down their access to Russian natural gas and had to start importing gas from the US and Qutar. The price of electricity in Germany is 46 cents per kwhr vs 17 cents in the US. The price of natural gas is four times higher than in the US. The result is that major industries like auto and chemical are reducing production and sometimes shutting down plants or relocating to other countries like the US. During Merkel’s term, the border was opened to 1.2 million immigrants which put a strain on social programs while at the same time the birth rate dropped and now, they face the problem of too many elderly and not enough young workers. The result is that Germany is entering its third straight year of recession. The most important thing that can turn things around is to end the war and bring back Russian natural gas. This same course of action was followed by the US but on a smaller scale. The US has now realized that wind and solar cannot replace fossil fuels and nuclear power is the way to deal with climate change.

HP

HP sells 850 million cartridges per year and the average prints 240 sheet. These sales bring in $1.7 billion dollars per year. When a new cartridge is installed, the instructions are to run a test sheet to align the paper and this results in using up 3.5 million cartridges and giving HP an additional $70 million in profit. I have used an HP printer for 20 years and have never run the test sheet. Maybe

Stats

During the campaign, the government often suggested that the economy was better than the people thought and the reason was the government did not explain things in a way that people could properly understand. In other words, it was the messaging not the policy. They were satisfied with this explanation and failed to look elsewhere. Since the election government statistics have come under scrutiny and some flaws have been uncovered in the way stats are reported. Unemployment is one case. The figure reported in November 2024 was 4.2%. Employed included homeless who occasionally worked. The biggest group were people who worked part time because they could not find full time work and this included people who earned less than $25,000 per year. If all of these had been included the unemployment rate would be 24%. These are reasons why the governments way of calculating unemployment needs to be refined to give a more accurate picture. The same is true with wages. Weekly earnings track full time and excludes part time. The average was $61,900 but if you track everyone the average is $52,300 which is 16% less. They count the part time worker in one stat but not in the other. This tends to give misleading results.

Waste

The current disagreement between the democrats and Musk is a tale of two cities. The democrats are correct in their legal interpretation of what Musk is doing but they are losing the battle of public opinion. When people see waste and fraud, they don’t care about the legal approach to correct things, they just see waste. The normal way to deal with waste is to go through congress where they will set up a committee to study the issue and a year later it will be lost in the bureaucracy and in time forgotten. That is why every president for 50 years has promised to get rid of the fat but none have succeeded. The only reason this time has a chance is Trump is using someone outside of government. The same thing would be necessary in private business. They would hire an outside consultant to come in and evaluate. This outsider would identify problem areas but it would be up to the company to follow up with the recommended changes.

Trucks

There is a lot of speculation regarding tariffs. One way to understand the effect is to look to the past. Lynden Johnson put a 25% tariff on all pickup trucks. What has been the effect? 60% of all Toyota pickups are made in the USA. This allows them to escape the tariff. Sales of pickups in the US reached 3 million and only 7,000 were imported. It appears that tariffs among other factors had an effect on imports.

Coal2

One of the ways the US is helping reduce carbon emissions is by exporting natural gas. The US is currently building new export facilities in five locations around the Gulf. Biden stopped construction on these projects saying he was concerned about climate change but Trump has started them up again. The US currently operates 7 export facilities and this will increase to 12. Natural gas exports have doubled since 2000 and will continue to rise as these new facilities come on board. In most places natural gas new plants prefer natural gas over coal but the only long-term solution

Gaza

Trump’s proposed settlement in Gaza has met with opposition groups who maintain that the Palestinians should be allowed to remain in Gaza. This war-torn area where most structures are destroyed and many that are still standing are unsafe. There is no food, water, medicine or the infrastructure to house the people. They will need outside help but no plans have been presented. For two years an estimated 12 million people in Sudan have been suffering with little to no relief. Here is a quote from the UN. “Children and women are continually abused, and the elderly and sick lack medical assistance,” he continued. “This is the worst humanitarian crisis in the world.” A look at history reveals the possible future for Gaza. When Israel was founded in 1948 the Arabs immediately invaded and were defeated. The same thing happened in the 1956 war, the 1967 war, the 1973 war, the 1982 Lebanon war, the Intifada 1987 to 1990, the second Intifada 2000-2005, the terror bombings in Israel resulting in the building of the wall around Israel followed up with sending rockets into Israel. This brief history says that it is only a matter of time until the net uprising happens and this is the proposed solution to the current situation. What are the specifics about Trump’s plan? Temporarily, two or three years, move the people to other Arab countries. Trump will negotiate with these countries like Saudi Arabia to accept the refugees. Using the foundation of the Abraham Accords the Arab Suni countries can be united to finance the rebuilding of Gaza. Israeli construction companies will rebuild using labor from Gaza. The Gazan people will return to a country that gives them a chance at a future not a future war. For those who don’t agree what is their plan.

Audio

What goes around comes around. I recently discovered audio books on Youtube. In talking around, I found out that many people knew this and many others listen on their phones. Next came my surprise when I learned about Podcast. Many people listen to various audio broadcast concerning a vast array of subjects and they have their favorites. It suddenly dawned on me that I was doing this long before most of these people were born. When I was young, we called it radio and now its back but in a different format.

Waters

I watched with great interest my heroine Maxine Waters challenged the gate keeper at the Department of Education. She’s 86 years old and still going strong. We old folks have to stick together.

Government

The situation that has developed with USAID is a textbook example of what happens all too often with government agencies. The congress or the president creates these groups and then fails to police their activities and the natural result of any group is to grow and expand. As a part of the budget process these agencies should undergo periodic audits to control the excesses now being exposed in USAID. This is how the bureaucracy got to the point where the EPA can save nature at the expense of people, how the FDA floods the market with drugs as the revolving door with Big Pharma swings open, how generals get jobs in the defense industry and on and on. Even the CIA got its comeuppance with the Church Committee in 1975 and is long overdo for another investigation. Even the FBI has lost its way as witnessed by the Russian collusion story. The whole of government needs a house cleaning.

Trade

Looking at the globalization that the US promoted from 1946 to the fall of the Soviet Union in 1990, two major changes occurred. First the manufacturing jobs for millions of working people were out sourced to foreign countries mainly China and second these same workers were rewarded with cheap consumer products like electronics. It this swap the workers were shorted. A worker in the steel industry saw his wages cut in half as his benefits disappeared when the mills closed and in return he was rewarded with cheap TV’s and refrigerators. This process is now being reversed and the industrial jobs are coming back home in what is called reshoring. This will cause wages to rise and lead to inflation but the hope is that wage increases will stay ahead of the cost of living which was the case in the 1950’s, before the global world arrived. The idea of free and fair trade became free trade when China used government subsidies to lower the price of steel below production cost and flooded the world with cheap steel. This caused many steel companies to go out of business. The same thing happened in other industries such as textiles and appliances. The US is now demanding fair trade by adding tariffs to countries who have tariffs on US products. Case in point. For years Europe has charged 10% on US auto import while the US charged Europe only 2.5% on imports. This is now changed to 10% to be fair. This same process will apply to all countries who have unfair taxes on US imports.

Musk kids

Trump has come under fire for allowing Musk and his 6 young people to look for waste in the government. Some of the complaints center around the age of the investigators and this seems a little unfair. These people are ages 19 to 24. Keep in mind that Musk founded Zip2 at age 24 and sold it for $300 million. Zuckerberg founded Face Book at age 19. Jobs founded Apple at age 21 and Gates founded Microsoft at age 20. There may be legitimate reasons for complaining about Musk looking into government waste but the age of the investigators is not one of them.

Change

For too many democrats there is a knee jerk reaction to be opposed to anything that Trump suggest and it is getting them in trouble. Trump is on the 80 side of most 80/20 issues and this puts the dems on the 20 side. The one theme that is more powerful that make America great again is common sense. How can you be against common sense? They need to pick their battles to be more effective. When emotions rule it is difficult to analyze and decisions are made without fore thought. The defenders of the bureaucracy want to maintain the old ways of doing things but the citizens voted for change. Most of the democrats agree that the voters want change but not the kind of change that Trump proposes. They want to tinker around the edges, set up committees and propose long term improvements which in the end amount to very little change. The introduction to the outside influence of DOGE is throwing a monkey wrench into the gears of government and the dems don’t want that, because this is an unknown force which may actually result is significant change.