Saturday, March 2, 2024

Fossil fuel

The environmental talk today is all about transition to renewable energy sources. Throughout history such transitions did not remove one source and replace it with another source, rather it added a new source to existing sources. Coal was added to wood, oil was added to coal, natural gas was added to oil, nuclear was added to gas and now wind and solar are being added to the mix. The world is burning more wood today than in 1850. In 1900 the world got 5,700 Twhr form coal and today we get 44,000 Twhr. This is up from 28,000 in 2000. Since the turn of the century energy from oil has increased from 42,000 to 52,000 Twhr, natural gas has increased from 24,000 to 39,000 and nuclear has remained constant at 7,000 Twhr. With all of the emphasis on renewables in the past 20 years, wind and solar only provides 5% of the worlds energy needs today. The point is that when one type of energy replaces another it happens over an extended period of time. Add to that the increasing demand for energy means that in fifty years we will still be using large amounts of fossil fuel. This is contrary to what many articles say and they often give the impression that this process will take place more quickly. The international climate conferences have been going on for 35 years and they always predict some future progress but total emissions keep increasing.

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