Iran

Iran could have developed an nuclear weapon many years ago but chose instead to use this as a bargaining chip and they have done so quite effectively. They used the threat to gain market share for their oil and have used much of the profits to finance various trouble spots including rebels in Syria, Iraq, Hamas, Hezbollah and most recently the Houthis in Yemen. In 2015 Iran reached a deal to curb its nuclear program for sanctions relief including on oil. In 2018 Trump said there would be no deal and all sanctions were snapped back. Iran's oil production was 3.8 million barrels per day in 2017 and it dropped to 2 million barrels in 2020. In 2021 Biden rescinded the Trump sanctions and Iran's oil production increased to 2.9 million barrels 2023. According to the US Treasury Department the US freed up $50 billion (not $150 billion as earlier reported) of Iranian funds that were frozen. While the Biden administration was doing this it was ignoring the opportunity to expand on the Abraham Accords and being Saudi Arabia into the fold. They were ready to make a deal in order to get US protection from Iran for their oil fields.