NATO

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was created in 1949 to provide collective security against the Soviet Union. At the end of 1991 the Soviet Union collapsed. During those years the United States provided the bulk of the defense of NATO at a cost of $500 billion dollars. This allowed the European countries to divert much of their income toward social programs as opposed to defense. Americans often praised Europe for things like national healthcare and childcare. That is still the case today as witnessed by the US provides 45% of the funding to Ukraine. When Trump asked the question as to why the US is still paying the biggest portion of the NATO budget he was roundly criticized. The same question could be asked about all of the global institutions like the UN. As deglobaliztion expands and the US moves away from protecting the ocean shipping should other questions be asked, things like is the UN really helpful to the US.

Argentina

When politicians in the US talk about cutting spending they have a difficult time, if not impossible, chance of winning. Once people receive a benefit it is difficult to take it away. Politicians have learned that they can garner votes by offering benefits. The question is always, how long can this keep going. A quick look at Argentina today can give a sneak preview into what might happen in the US if spending continues. The government in Argentina has been handing out benefits like candy to various groups and getting their vote in return. The result is that many different government agencies have been set up and each has its own give away program and each gets reelected. Well the government is out of money so it did the logical thing, it started to print more money. This resulted in high inflation over 200%. The people who saved their money lost their money and got upset so a man named Javier Milei ran for president on the pledge to cut benefits and miracle of miracles he was elected. He was an outsider having no political experience. He has been in office less than three months and has consolidate 18 agencies into 9. Argentina had 3.5 million government employees and the population is only 45 million The US has 3 million federal employees and a population of 330 million. It will be interesting to see how long this guy can last and others can learn something from his actions.

Border

The new border bill causing all the controversy is a secret. A few leaks have appeared. It says that if more than 8,500 migrants come across in one day the president can close the border or if an average of 5,000 over seven days the president can close the border. This means it will be legal for 5,000 per day to come into the country. While this counting is going on the got a ways will still be sneaking in. This bill would allow 1.8 million illegals to come in each year.

Economy

The coming years will be a time of tumultuous changes in the world and in particular in the United States. The de-globalization and the accompanying reshoring will create the largest economic expansion in history. The new facilities using the latest technology will increase productivity which will offset some of the negative effects of wage/price inflation. This coming November Biden will be reelected as the republicans could not compete in the game of ballot harvesting. This will lead to Harris taking over and in spite of government efforts to slow down the economy, using the fear of climate change by increasing regulations, the industrial Juggernaut will surge ahead. In time the migrants will receive work permits and a path to citizenship and America will move from a center right country to a center left. These are the people who will fill the low skill jobs while others will move into high paying industrial positions that require higher skills. Slowly the country will realize that wind and solar cannot replace fossil fuels and nuclear will move to the head of the line. With this new source of clean electricity, charging stations will replace gas stations and EV's will become popular. After five or so years of high inflation the new middle income group will grow in size and resemble the 1950's as incomes rise faster than inflation. As the standard of living rises other factors like cultural differences will become less important. There will be a push to change the educational system to train the type of workers that will be needed in the new high tech businesses. Business will join forces with schools to create a work force that will accommodate the countries needs. Elected officials will realize that the road to reelection is best served by not making waves and just allowing the economy to keep them in office. This means a lot less bickering and an incentive to unite the country.

Iran oil

A group known as Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for the killing of three American troops in Jordan. Many believe that this group receives weapons and military advise from the Iranians. This begs the question is it okay to attack Iran because they are supplying terror groups with weapons. If the answer is yes is it then okay for Russian to attack Germany because they are sending equipment to Ukraine. Is it okay for Hamaz to attack Americans because the US is supplying weapons to Israel. Much of the oil that China needs comes out of the Persian Gulf. The US could blockade the Straits of Hormuz and allow all oil ships through but turn back any Iranian ships. This would allow commerce to continue to the rest of the world while cutting off the oil money to Iran. This is done without a military attack and would put the ball in Iran's court.

Climate

There are some environmentalists who firmly believe that climate change is an existential threat meaning the end of the world we know unless something is done and quickly. This is why they would be okay with shutting down fossil fuel production immediately without first investigating the consequences. This would lead to world wide problems including hunger but the logic is that this would be better than continuing on our present path. This is the same type of thinking that happens with people who firmly believe that life begins at conception and therefor abortion is the murder of an unborn child. It is easy to understand their commitment to the anti abortion side when you consider things from their viewpoint. Even to kill the baby to save the life of the mother would be questionable.

Buses

On MPR today they announced that some schools will start using electric buses because they are environmentally clean. These kinds of statements are the result of experts who say that the science is settled when it comes to the environment. A scientist would never make a statement like that. Electric buses are not clean. They bring with them a long trail of carbon producing mining and processing not counting their cost which is four times higher than diesel. Then there is always the question of what is the source of the power used to change the batteries and how do they perform in MN winters.

Bureaucrats

The bureaucrats in Washington present a looming threat to democracy. They use their power to control the growth of industries by piling regulation upon regulation, to mandate medical treatment, to gather information on citizens and slowly erode personal freedoms by influencing the social networks. They have fostered the division between political parties by claiming the republicans want to bring back the days of racism and sexism and democrats want to silence free speech. They have promoted globalization and moved factory jobs to Asian at the expense of the working people and benefit of corporations which has widened the income gap. They have conscripted the press by showing how dissension can grow business and has saved a dying TV and print news by increasing readership and clicks. They have promoted internationalism using the World Bank, the IMF, the WTO, the WHO and the World Court to move power away from the people into the hands of a few elites in Brussels. The defense department uses wars to feed the military industrial complex and the Justice department partners with the information industrial complex by way of social media The solution is for the citizens to unite behind their common goals of using the military to protect from foreign invaders, demanding good paying jobs here at home, having a effective legal immigration system, securing the borders, developing a strong safety net for those who slip though the cracks, having police who protect the neighborhoods, schools that put students first using academics that prepare them for adulthood and reminding the bureaucrats that they work for the people.

Substack

I recently discovered a way to promote a viewpoint called Substack. You can set up a Substack account for free. Then others can read about your ideas. If your ideas become popular you can limit who reads your stuff to people who are willing to pay for it. Fees of $5 per month are common so that most people can afford to pay for your opinions. You are not owing to any employer or PAC or other group. You stay in business only as long as your customers continue to pay the fee. This eliminate the problem of quid pro quo that leads to corruption. You as the customer can select sites that you feel are making sense. You know that the writer is expressing his ideas without being influenced by some outside source. It eliminates one of the major reasons why some writers can be coerced. It is no guarantee that the writer is not influenced by other reasons but it does eliminate one. This is a victory for free speech.

LNG

The sudden change by the Biden administration regarding exporting of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is causing concern for the gas companies. It takes three to five years to construct an LNG export facility and there are currently five under construction. The ruling suggest that the future development in new facilities will be halted. Environmentalists and climate activists celebrated the delay, saying a halt to the exports would stop the country from plunging deeper into the climate crisis. Biden says, “This pause on new LNG approvals sees the climate crisis for what it is: the existential threat of our time.” This represents a misunderstanding of how world markets work. If there is a demand for LNG it will be produced if not by the United States by others suppliers like Qatar. Just as natural gas replaced coal use in the US the same will happen in other countries when they have access to natural gas. China's has increased LNG imports from 26,000 tons in 2021 to 620,000 tons in the first nine months of 2023. When China gets more LNG there is less pressure on China to burn coal. The US has the cleanest natural gas production in the world and natural gas produces about half the CO2 that coal does and in addition natural gas does not pollute the air with heavy metals like mercury and lead and does not produce nitrates and sulfates that cause acid rain.

Ukraine

It has been said that when a person is caught robbing a bank that is probably not their first offense. Here is an not surprising article from Ukraine. KYIV, Ukraine — Employees from a Ukrainian arms firm conspired with defense ministry officials to embezzle almost $40 million earmarked to buy 100,000 mortar shells for the war with Russia, Ukraine's security service reported. Could there be more theft for which the authorities are not aware.

Dossier

During the Trump campaign, starting in June of 2016 the claim was made that Trump was a Russian agent. A document called the Steele dossier was the only written source for the claim. A research firm called Fusion GPS was hired to find dirt, using what is called opposition research, on Trump. Fusion then hired the law firm of Perkins and Coie to conduct the research. The firm was paid by the Clinton campaign and the DNC. The first report in June of 2016 said there was an conspiracy between Trump and Russia going back to 2011. During the months leading up to the election the press did not do much with the dossier story because they did not have enough evidence except for Michael Isikoff a reporter for Yahoo. In September of 2016 he published a story about Carter Page who worked for Trump as having contacts with the Kremlim. Just a week before the election David Corn published a story in Mother Jones but that was the extent of it before the election. One of the reasons for the apparent lack of interest was that the press assumed Trump would lose. That all changed once he won starting right after the election before Trump took office. Shortly after Trump took office James Comey met secretly with Trump to inform him about the dossier. Soon that meeting was leaked to CNN and next Buzz Feed published the dossier. The FBI offered Steele $1 million dollars if he could verify the information in the dossier but he could not. The press kept reporting on the dossier because the FBI did not inform them that it was unverified. The Trump/Russia collusion story was kept alive. First the FBI briefs congress and then congress leaks snippets of the story and the press prints it saying, persons familiar with. During the four years of the Trump presidency the New York Times used that phrase over 1,000 time with no written document but only hear say. This led to the appointment of special prosecutor Robert Mueller to investigate between May 2017 to March 2019. This was followed up with the first Trump impeachment which began on December 2019. Jul 22, 2022 A New York Times columnist has published an article detailing his “wrong” and regretful reporting of Donald Trump voters before the 2016 election – admitting the Russia collusion story was “bogus” and a “hoax”.

McCarthy

What goes around comes around is something you witness as you get older. Back in the 1950's something called McCarthyism came into the news. It started as an anti communist movement but like so many things it quickly became political. Senator Joe McCarthy started the un -American activities investigation which let to accusing prominent citizens of being communist sympathizers. This was the equivalent of cancel culture since the charge immediately blackened the reputation of these people. It morphed into conservatives going after liberals and was very successful until people finally woke up to the damage it was causing. Something similar is happening today as democrats accuse republicans of being racist, un American and trying to destroy democracy. Just like last time these are charges tossed around based mostly on opinion. If you say close the border you are called anti immigrant, say too many Blacks are murdering too many Blacks and you are racist. Say the Covid came from a Chinese lab and you are xenophobic. This will pass but it takes a while like last time.

Laptop

There have recently been discussions about Twitter and Facebook refusing to allow information about the Hunter Biden laptop to appear on their sites. These are private companies and can censor material they feel is inappropriate for whatever reason. When they do allow controversial information they have a protection that other media like newspapers do not have and it come from Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act. Basically a news outlet like cable or papers can be sued if they publish information that is libel. Social media cannot be sued for libel if they remove the material when it is brought to their attention. The case of Hunter's laptop is an example of how the government can censor which is illegal. The FBI came into possession of the laptop in December of 2019. They knew it was legitimate since they had the receipt signed by Hunter and they had gotten the receipt by subpoena and they had reviewed the contents. The computer repair shop owner, John Mac Isaac, had given the laptop to the FBI in December of 2019 but by mid summer of 2020 nothing had been done about it so then John Mac Isaac, who had made a copy of the laptop, gave the information to Rudy Giuliani. On October 14, 2016 the New York Post published the laptop story as an October surprise. The government said this was Russian disinformation and suggested social media not allow this information on their sites so they refused to reprint the Post story. It was later revealed that the internal Twitter execs felt the story did not violate their policy and agreed to allow the information. This decision was opposed by Jim Baker, former general counsel for the FBI. Baker was a recent hire by Twitter and convinced Twitter to ban the laptop report. A few days later 51 former US intelligence officials signed a letter saying the laptop was Russian disinformation. Since that time and after the election the government along with all the major newspapers have conceded that the laptop was legitimate.

Jews

Jews are are in the news these days because of the war in Palestine but the Jews have always been looked at differently and some say it is because they are over represented in most of the top areas of the country. These include, students at Ivy league school, the fields of medicine and law, in business and banking, Wall Street, Professors, Hollywood, music, in Noble prize winners and even in chess and bridge. The number of Jews in these areas often exceed. many times their raw numbers in the group. For example while Jews represent about 2.4% of the population they are 21% of Ivy league students. Jews represent less than one percent of the worlds population but they have won Noble Prizes. Chemistry: 36 (19% of total) Economics: 38 (41% of total) Literature: 16 (13% of total) Peace: 9 (8% of total) Physics: 56 (25% of total) Physiology or Medicine: 59 (26% of total) The explanation most times given is Jewish cultural values based on family upbringing, dedication to education, self motivation, persistence, resilience in the face of adversity and just plain hard work. This is much like Asian American families.

Environment

The US is the leading producer and exporter of natural gas and is helping Europe to replace the gas they lost from Russia. This week Biden set in motion rules to limit natural gas exports in the future. This was to satisfy the environmental groups who see these exports as adding to the problem of climate change. As soon as the word about this change went out Qatar immediately geared up production to replace the gas from the US. The result is less profit for the US and more profit for Qatar and no change in climate. Environmentalist have to know this is what is happening. Once again it seems like these people are unaware that we have only one planet. Since 2010 the US has closed 300 coal fired power plants leaving the country with 200 still operating. China has 1,100 operating coal plants and have built 226 more in China and that many again outside of China. China is increasing the permitting of coal plants at the rate of two plants per week.

Coal

The well being of any society is directly dependent on the availability of electricity and many countries are without this clean source of power. There are two billion people, mostly living in Africa, that still use wood as fuel for cooking and heating. For many villages the use of wood and dung for cooking is filling their huts with carcinogens and other particles that cause respiratory problems. It is difficult for people in the Western world to understand the situation in these small villages. If they had an electric pump powered by a diesel generator they could pump water up hill to a holding tank and have fresh water for cooking and cleaning. A clean body means fewer mites, lice and other disease causing bugs. It also allows for a septic tank system which cuts down on the common diseases like cholera and dysentery. These villages have 500 to 1000 people and ten gallons of diesel would provide water for a month. One semi would use that much fuel going from MPLS to Rochester.

Mexico

The senate is trying to negotiate a solution to the border problem but most of the senators are not privy to what is being proposed. The same is true of the voters since no where on the Internet is it revealed. Wouldn't it be wise to revert back to the Trump border policies while this negotiation is on going. This means no more catch and release, bring back the remain in Mexico policy and have Mexico close their southern border with Guatemala. During the Trump years border crossing averaged less than 50,000 per month and the past three years that has risen to 250,000. This would allow time to stop the bleeding while the senate figures out what to do. Trump told the Mexican government what to do or he would impose import taxes on Mexicans goods and they agreed to his demands. Biden asked Mexico to close their border with Guatemala and here was their response. In a press conference on Friday, López Obrador called on the U.S. to approve a plan that would deploy $20 billion to Latin American and Caribbean countries, suspend the U.S. blockade of Cuba, remove all sanctions against Venezuela and grant at least 10 million Hispanics living in the U.S. the right to remain and work legally.

Power

It is my contention the government should not be trusted and that the bureaucracy is out of control. The documents released by Edward Snowden revealed how the NSA is and has been spying on American citizens. With a top secret court order, the NSA collected the telephone records from millions of Verizon customers. June 6, 2013The NSA accessed and collected data through back doors into US Internet companies like Google and Facebook with a program call Prism. June 7, 2013. There were 10 million documents released and the interesting thing is that 99.99% of them contained nothing but everyday rather mundane bits of information about everyday life, the same type of stuff you would find on Facebook but they were marked secret and top secret which meant if you read them you would be committing a crime. This allows the government to collect information in secret. What did the documents reveal that would be harmful. They showed a top secret black budget that funded 16 spy agencies in the intelligence community and that the NSA was paying private tech companies for access to their networks. This smacks of a non elected government (bureaucracy) within the government. What other secret groups are hidden within the elected government. There needs to be a house cleaning and it won't be done easily since the government has a lot of dirt on anyone who might want to investigate. People in power do not like to give up their power.

Green

As the baby boomers retire they take their capital with them. Instead of investing in stocks they move their money to government bonds which means the cost of capital will rise because there is less of it. This has an adverse effect on going green. When a new natural gas power plant is built the cost is spread over the life of the project because it is financed with user fees. Only 20% of the cost is in the construction and the remaining 80% comes from user fees. When windmills and solar farms are constructed all of the cost is up front since there is no later fuel cost. As capital becomes more expensive it makes the cost of wind and solar more expensive.

Trump

As television spread across the country this powerful medium became the primary path to winning presidential elections and it started with the Kennedy/Nixon debate just a month before the 1960 election. Since that time the wealthy behind the scenes power brokers have used TV to get their man elected. Almost all elections were won by the candidate with the biggest war chest. As the campaign fund rose the press started to move in that direction and this, by using TV ads, brought along the voters. This led voters to the common phrase, money is the mother's milk of politics. Then in 2015 all of that changed. Trump came along and realized that people were upset with a system that allowed the combination of money and press to elect the president and when he attacked the press and the bureaucracy people cheered. Trump came along at just the right time where he could bypass the press and use Twitter to get his message out. He understood that if he went on NBC 5 million people would watch but on Twitter 500 million would see his Tweets. The press of course was not happy with this as they had built up relations with politicians to get inside information and all of there years of work were not longer of any value. Added to that was the fact that Trump was transparent. What ever came into his mind he immediately put it out on Twitter. The press fully understands that Trump is good for business and to they keep putting him on the front page.

Migrants

The unexpected consequences of good intentions can be seen in what is called, by the disparaging term, virtue signaling and one of the best examples is illegal immigration. Sanctuary cities across the country quoted the words on the Statue of Liberty, give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breath free, and they got their wish. It was easy to say those words when they thought all the huddled masses would remain in Texas but when they showed up on the their door step the whole situation changed. These newly arrived migrants are putting stress on existing social institutions, increasing demand for goods and services and negatively effecting the local citizens. The mayors of these major cities are now asking the federal government for more money when the solution to the problem is fewer migrants. Around the world there are an estimated 180 million people who want to come to American and most people know the country cannot handle that number of migrants.

Podcast

It was about a year ago my grandson told me about podcast, something I had never heard of and so I started watching them on Youtube and I think its a great idea. Apparently they only make money when they get viewers which means they are not indebted to sponsors. This means they can say what is on their minds and do not have to be owning to any other person or group. Since the legacy media is no longer free to pursue the news in an unbiased way these new podcast will help save the first amendment. The viewers may not like the content and move to another site but at least they are seeing an honest evaluation of news events. There will still be some sites that are slanted but if there are thousands of sites the viewers can find their way through and get many different opinions. The best way to negate false news is to have lots of options.

Money

Recently a fast way to shrink the wealth gap was proposed. All private debt including credit card and home mortgage loans to be canceled. Rich people invest their money in real estate, stocks, commodities and hedge funds. People get their loans from banks, mortgage companies, institutions, insurance companies and individual lenders. In other words people are borrowing money from people who have money. If all this debt is canceled then the working people will be debt free and the money lenders will pay the price. This would transfer $13 trillion overnight from the rich to the un rich. The top one percent hold $37 trillion dollars so they can afford it.

News

Most people are aware and/or maybe even participate in the divisiveness in the world around us and often times people place the blame on the other guy or the other side. Back in the day people got their news from Walter Cronkeit or the local newspaper and most from the paper. People forget this but it wasn't until 1963 that the evening TV news expanded from 15 minutes to 30 minutes. I remember thinking what are going to have to talk about for a half hour. The news had a monopoly and didn't need exciting news to get viewers or newspaper readers. In 1980 CNN started with 24 hour news and I had the same question. What are they going to talk about. Well as it happened they still just had 15 minutes of news but they repeated it over and over. Still there was not that much competition and they could still make money. The along came the Internet which led in the late 1990's to social media. The national TV news and newspapers around the country begin to lose customers and the competition for viewers and readers became intense. It was at that point where the news changed. They discovered that the only way to get clicks was to get the viewer emotionally involved and that let to reporting a slant on the news. What used to be limited to places like The National Enquirer become mainstream. The next step was to find which audience liked which viewpoints and set up stories to satisfy that audience. These outlets are well aware that it is biased reporting that keeps their viewers and that is their strategy. So today we have news outlets that deliberately strive to divide the country into groups just to improve their bottom line and the people all fall for it.

Teachers

For most of American history a college education was limited to people of means. Thus most professors and students tended to be conservative in their politics. After WW 2 that began to change, propelled by the GI Bill which helped many lower income students. As more diversity of students passed through schools more diversity of professors reached tenure and political views also became more diverse. This caused the universities to move from conservative views to liberal views and this change accelerated about 30 years ago. When the idea of diversity, equity and inclusiveness (DEI) came on the scene many professors believed in their hearts that this was a good thing and moved to promote the idea. There is competition between professors for good jobs and some saw this as an opportunity to move up. One way to do that if you were a liberal is to get rid of the conservatives and thus open up a position. There were the convinced (believers in DEI) and the opportunist and each could profit from this new philosophy. Something similar happened in Germany in the 1930's when Hitler came to power. As the Jews were forced out of the universities many saw this as an opportunity. Like so many things the movement toward liberalism went to extremes and today polls show that only 9% of professors say they are liberal and these are concentrated in science and business. Many areas like humanities, fine arts and liberal arts are almost devoid of conservatives. This change occurred in the college of education and today many high school teachers tend to be liberal and this spells over into their teaching style, once again more so in social studies, history and English but not so much in math and science.

Energy

Between 2000 and 2020 the percent of total energy from fossil fuels declined from 84% to 80%. This is after billions have been spent developing and subsidizing renewable. Global new investment in renewable energy skyrocketed to $358 billion in the first six months of 2023, a 22% rise compared to the start of last year and an all-time high for any six-month period. The demand for new energy is increasing faster than supply and depending on wind and solar will not get the job done. The world must use all forms of energy including nuclear.

Immigrants

From the Civil War until the depression the number of immigrant stayed around 14%. The number then declined to 5% by 1970 and then started up again to 14% today. Between 1970 and 2020, 35 million immigrants came to America or a little more than one million per year. This is more than the next five countries combined. These were all legal immigrants. Americans welcomed these new citizens. They were assimilated into the general population and have become productive members of society. When millions of illegal migrants cross the border they are not easily absorbed into the cities and towns and cause a great deal of turmoil. There is a world of difference between legal and illegal immigration.

Jobs

When Bill Clinton came into office we had the dotcom boom and the economy grew so rapidly that the budget was balanced for two years some that shocked everyone. The NASDAQ went from 1000 to 8000 and down to 2000 shortly after Clinton left office. Clinton opened the door to home mortgages so that everyone could achieve the American Dream. This led to the mortgage boom which blew up in 2008 and just about brought down the world economy. All of this added to the stress that left the working people on the sidelines while the rich got richer. This, added to the 40 years of watching liberals claiming to be for the working man while sending manufacturing jobs overseas finally got to be too much and the same people who voted for Obama moved and elected Trump. These same people are still upset with what they see as the government not caring about their lost jobs. Both parties are waking up to this fact and both are saying America first.

Election

In the 1892 presidential election Grover Cleveland defeated incumbent Benjamin Harrison. This was Cleveland's second term and the only time in history that both candidates for president had experience as president. This many happen again in 2024.

Law

The Pentagon spokesman was asked today if the US is at war in the Middle East and he said no. The Constitution grants the congress sole power to declare war. Korea was never declare war but went on for three years and 38,000 American soldiers died. Next came the Vietnam war and congress passed the War Power Act which was designed to enforce the Constitutional requirement that only the congress can declare war. The War Powers Resolution requires the president to notify Congress within 48 hours of committing armed forces to military action and forbids armed forces from remaining for more than 60 days, with a further 30-day withdrawal period, without congressional authorization for use of military force  Congress has not declared war since WW 2. All the presidents since FDR have failed to follow the law. In the current example of bombing the Houthis in Yemen the country has no idea on what the end game is. If the president followed the law congress would ask for a plan. Most people seem to think that the US will send in few hundred rockets and end the situation not realizing that Saudi Arabia has been doing this to the Houthis for eight years and have used 25,000 rockets. Is the US in for another long war in the Middle East. Perhaps if the congress would do its duty and enforce the law the US might not get into conflicts so easily.

Inflation

The big unknown for the coming election is what will happen to inflation this coming summer. The US has met the challenge by increasing fossil fuel production. Offsetting this is the oil exports to Europe and the price of oil is based on the world market. The same goes for the cost of natural gas. The US had record exports of natural gas which helped Europe which had lost gas from Russia. So far US oil exports are keeping the price of oil down. The increase in energy production will keep fuel cost down but the cost of shipping has increased 173% from China to Europe because of the blocking of the Suez Canal. So far the US has escaped this since imports from China come by way of the Pacific. If inflation returns the Fed will want to raise interest rates but Biden will oppose that since this is an election year.

Equality

There is a discussion going on in today's world on the difference between equal opportunity and equal results. Because people are different they will end up in different places financially and in quality of life. Some people are poor but have good family relations and some are rich and have poor family relationships. Gen Z which is just coming on are more interested in quality of life issues instead of making lots of money. Many older people grew up chasing the brass ring and sacrificed some family time but considered it worth it. A good solution is to allow for everyone to choose their path but have good safety net for those who cannot get out of poverty with the caveat that Bill Clinton proposed when he said welfare should be a helping hand and not a way of life. There will always be a small minority who just can't take care of themselves but the goal should be to bring these to a minimum. There should be an open debate over these issues and proceed accordingly. As new information is gathered then changes should be made. Parents know that you can do too much for a child and too little and government should understand the same applies to them.

Crime

One of the concerns about AI is the development of predictive analytics. This is using the collection of large amounts of data about a person to suggest that this person may commit a criminal act. This may be the answer to the questions that always come up after a mass shooting when the social media sites show the shooter was predicting his behavior. The problem is can you be arrested for something you might do. While this sounds silly there is precedence for such acts. In MN convicted sex offenders are sent to another facility after they complete their sentence on the basis of they will commit another sex crime if they are let out. It would be more than a little disconcerting if the sheriff came to your door with an arrest warrant because the computer said you might commit a crime.

Speech

Free speech is under attack from all sides. Speakers are shouted down at various universities. Now those who are critical of Israel are called antisemitic. University professors are losing their jobs for not speaking out the way most want them to. This is all part of the cancel culture that has overtaken freedom of speech. People are afraid to say what is on their minds because they will be shouted down or worse. The age old tactic of calling people names when you cannot logically refute their arguments. A person should be allowed to criticize and if some disagree they can respond with a better argument but not to shut down speech. If you cannot express a reasonable difference of opinion perhaps it is time to reexamine your own position.

Ukraine

It has now been revealed that Russia offered to end the invasion of Ukraine in the spring of 2022 if Ukraine agreed to drop its ambitions to join NATO. This is according to Ukraine President Zelensky representative David Arakhamia who was present at peace negotiation. Arakhamia said that Moscow pledged to end the fighting if Ukraine agreed to remain neutral and forego its bid to join NATO. "They were ready to end the war if we took...neutrality and made commitments that we would not join NATO. This was the key point," the Ukrainian official added. Why didn't the US step in and lead to a peace settlement. Even if they didn't trust the Russians wasn't it worth the try. Now with the benefit of hindsight would they do things differently.

Textiles

During the past century starting in the late 1960's many American industries were hurt by foreign competitors who could use cheap labor, lack of regulation and unsafe working conditions to undercut prices on production. The textile industry is a good example. With the onset of reshoring this industry is being revitalized. New cotton fields, along with gins and clothing facilities are being developed with the latest technology making products that are competitive on the world market. Automation along with lower transportation cost have overcome the lower wage advantage of foreign companies. Over the past ten years what many call just the beginning of a textile resurgence has taken place. Today, the American textile industry is the fourth largest exported of textile products in the world. This is just one example of what is happening in many industries.

Trump

WMD

As the US gets involved in wars many commentators are warning of past misinformation that led to US conflict and the one most often quoted is Iraq. The reports say that the US people were fooled by lies of WMD in Iraq. Here is a repeat of what I wrote in The second George Bush administration made a number of mistakes and one of the biggest had to do with weapons of mass destruction mainly chemical and biological. When the US invaded Iraq the big question was are there any WMD and the question should have been where are they?Here is a partial list of WMD given to Iraq during the 80’s and 90’s. About 100 tons of mustard gas also came from Brazil.] The non-profit American Type Culture Collection and the Centers for Disease Control sold or sent biological samples of anthrax, West Nile virus and botulism to Iraq up until 1989 the Iraqi military settled on the American Type Culture Collection strain 14578 as the exclusive anthrax strain for use as a biological weapon, according to Charles Duelfer.[31]The British government also financed a chlorine factory that was intended to be used for manufacturing mustard gas.[33]Singapore gave 4,515 tons of precursors for VX, sarin, tabun, and mustard gases to Iraq. The Dutch gave 4,261 tons of precursors for sarin, tabun, mustard, and tear gases to Iraq. Egypt gave 2,400 tons of tabun and sarin precursors to Iraq and 28,500 tons of weapons designed for carrying chemical munitions. India gave 2,343 tons of precursors to VX, tabun, Sarin, and mustard gases. Luxembourg gave Iraq 650 tons of mustard gas precursors. Spain gave Iraq 57,500 munitions designed for carrying chemical weapons. In addition, they provided reactors, condensers, columns and tanks for Iraq’s chemical warfare program, 4.4% of the international sales. China provided 45,000 munitions designed for chemical warfare. Portugal provided yellowcake between 1980 and 1982. Niger provided yellowcake in 1981.[34]2011

Migrants

The UN along with organizations like the Red Cross are helping migrants in the journey through Central America to make their way into the United States. They do this as part of UN section 2030 the goal of which is to end hunger. The fact that many of these migrants are sex trafficked is not their concern nor is the cartels who are making the money and bringing in the drugs. Even when they get into the US other NGO's and well meaning churches continue the aid to these migrants. It appears their desires to help the poor and down trodden overcomes their concern about child abuse and drugs. By their actions they are encouraging more migrants from around the world to make the dangerous journey. One more example of the unintended consequences of good intentions.

Good jobs

Cognitive dissonance is the discomfort a person feels when their behavior does not align with their values or beliefs. A good example happens when politicians who claim to have the best interest in the working people come face to face with globalization. They spent 40 years transferring the manufacturing jobs to other countries while they claim they were helping the working people. Their behavior, moving jobs to China, directly conflicts with their policy of helping the factory workers. Instead the movement of jobs allowed the rich to become richer while the working person ended up with a low paying job with no benefits. Will all of these people now see the error of their ways and support reshoring. Perhaps they are in denial and feel no discomfort. Perhaps they will say it was the other guy not me.

Climate

As the American people watch inflation come down as evidenced by the price of gasoline they are not so aware of the increase in fossil fuels including coal, natural gas and oil reaching an all time high. While this is going on the problem that many of these same people considered the biggest threat to the world has disappeared from the news. No body's talking about climate change. This is not surprising to many because most people were aware that climate change like the new green deal and the women's movement were about politics not climate and helping women. It is not just in the US. World production of coal hit an all time high in 2023. The real attack on fossil fuel will not start until the experts understand that wind and solar are not the answer. Over the past 20 plus years governments around the world have spent trillions on subsidies for wind and solar and the use of fossil fuels for power deceased from 82% to 80%. Every day the Internet is filled with stories about how wind and solar will save the earth but its all politics not science. The only way this will change is when people find out the truth and the establishment is making every effort to hide that. If all those trillions had been spent on nuclear power the world would be well on its way to solving the problem of climate change.

GenZ

Quiet quitting is a new phrase that has become popular in the last five years or so. I investigated to find out what it meant and discovered, to my surprise, that 30 some years ago before I retired, I myself was a quiet quitter. I worked on a commission basis and the more I worked the more I earned but I had no desire to be the top person or to break sales records. My philosophy was if I could make the money I needed to take care of my family working 20 hours per week that is what I would do. I had a good balance between my work life and my family life. The Gen Y people understand this balance and they are the promoters of the quiet quitting idea. They do not believe in being on call all hours of the day. A good example of this idea can be seen in an old movie staring Gregory Peck called The Man In The Gray Flannel Suit. He is a young up and coming executive and the boss wants him to take over the company but he sees how the boss' life has been ruined because of his work ethic and he doesn't what that to happen to him. At the end of the movie he says to his boss, I guess I'm just one of those 9 to 5 kind of guys. That is what the Gen Z people are like. This difference can effect the whole country. For example Europeans have long since considered quality of life more important than making money. The productivity in the United States is twice that of the European Union. For 2023, the GDP is projected to be $26,949.64 billion for the US and $18,351.13 billion for the EU while the US population is 330 million vs the EU at 450 million. For those Americans who always wanted to be more like the Europeans take a look at Gen Z

Power

On July 10, 2016 Seth Rich was murdered. Rich worked for the DNC and conspiracy theories sprung up saying he was part of the Russian group that hacked the DNC. Over the years these theories were all deemed to be false. The FBI said they had no information on Rich but subsequent leaks revealed they had many document and a laptop. The FBI said they would need 66 years to gather the information. Although the FBI responded to Huddleston's request two weeks later saying they were "unable to locate any responsive main files," it was later unveiled that the FBI had over 20,000 pages of potentially relevant material, according to RadarOnline. On November 29, 2023 the judge ordered the FBI to turnover the laptop within 14 days but they refused and the lawyers are still waiting. Rich had no security clearance. The only way the FBI can be forced to turn over this laptop and documents is for the Justice Department to tell them and it appears this is not going to happen. Once again the power of the president working with the Justice Department can circumvent the orders of the court which jeopardizes the balance of power between the branches.

Justice

There is a weak link in the constitution which can open the door to the president having too much power. It works like this. The president takes control of the Department of Justice. He then begins to use the FBI to secretly investigate his opponents. He has a hit list. If congress wants to investigate they can but they cannot enforce the law as that is reserved for the Justice Department. This will upset the balance of power set in the constitution. In today's world this could only happen with a democrat in the White House. The republican party over the years has opposed big government so the people who work there are mostly democrats. The democrats want bigger government which leads to more power to bureaucrats. Trump was and is viewed as a threat to the bureaucracy and thus they could be enticed to work against Trump. NBC news recently suggested that Trump might want to take over the government and become a dictator. He may want that but there is no way the Justice Department would go along.

Press

Scientific research has come under attack and rightly so. Researchers get Grants and one way for a newbie is too come up with some surprising results. The researcher is often times working alone and can find it tempting to adjust the data to achieve some end. This leads to more Grants and a reputation that reflects favorably on the university. This is the way much of the news media operates. They selectively accept information that fits an agenda and often times this is just what the editors want. This brings in more customers either in print or online. Even when the dishonesty is exposed not much happens to deter future shenanigans or in many cases it actually encourages others to join in. Soon you have a whole newspaper on TV station reinforcing one another's opinions on current issues. This practice is so common that most people have lost faith in the press. Polls show that approval of the press has declined steadily from 72% in 1976 to 32% today. Some say that Trumps attacks on the press as being fake news exacerbated the problem but the data doesn't back that up. Press approval in 2016 was 32% and it rose to 45% in 2018 and then declined to 40% in 2020. Over the past three years it has dropped to 32%. This is data from https://news.gallup.com/poll/512861/media-confidence-matches-2016-record-low.aspx

Debt

I have been hearing all of my life that the country cannot keep spending more than it is taking in but it is still going. The US debt is 130% of the GDP. Japan has had the same problem running over 100% for the past 20 years and currently their debt to GDP ratio is 230%. Does that mean the US can keep deficit financing. Who knows.

Ukraine

When the press reports mostly what the government wants that leads to the problem of the people not getting the whole story which is bad but it becomes much worse when it happens during war. One of the main things government learned from the Vietnam War was that public knowledge of what is going on can hurt the war effort if things are going bad. Since that time the government changed strategies. In the subsequent wars correspondents were embedded with the troops which means they were sent where the government wanted them to go. This is now going on in Ukraine so the reporting is basically what the government wants to report which is just another name for propaganda. The rule should be as is always the case with government to be skeptical of any government information.

CIA

The CIA was founded in 1947 to gather information about the cold war. As time passed it drifted away from legal activities to illegal. The situation came to a head in 1974 when the Church committee uncovered the abuses regarding intelligence activities. The White House fought to withhold information from the committee to limit their ability to investigate but in the final analysis the CIA, FBI, IRS and National Security Agency all had their wings clipped. Then along came 9/11 and everything changed overnight. These government agencies who are responsible for intelligence gathering became much more. They began to take on many project beyond intelligence work. The CIA became a private army for the president. They have $50 billion dollar budget and use military equipment to carry out their assignments. They have overseas interrogation sites where torture is allowed. Many politicians are aware of these illegal activities but are afraid to expose the perpetrators. These government agencies have accumulated volumes on the personal activities of various congressmen who are now under the control of the CIA and FBI. In today's world these undercover activities include infiltrating social media companies and using the same secret information to influence how these companies operate. It wasn't only Jeffrey Epstein who understood the power of blackmail.

Iran

The Saudis' have been fighting the Yemenis for almost ten years. They have sent in 25,000 rocket strikes but Iran just keeps replenishing the supply. The United States is now trying the same approach. Some Hawks want the US to bomb the Iranian oil export facilities but a better solution is to block all Iranian oil shipments out of the Persian Gulf. This will cut off the head of the snake. It will send the Iranian economy into a tail spin and cut off supplies of military equipment to not only Yemen but also Gaza and Hezbollah. Surly someone in Washington has at least considered this, or maybe not.

Economy

Politics and economics often conflict and 2024 will be a text book example. With low unemployment at 3.7% and inflation (3%) above the Fed target of 2% the Fed should raise rates but since this is an election year the Fed will be under pressure to lower rates. One concern is that the unemployment rates are low because 7 million able bodied men between ages 25 and 54 have dropped out of the work force. This is confirmed by the labor participation rate which remains low 62.5% down from 63.3 pre Covid. These men could be working as there are 8 million unfilled job openings today. As the industrial expansion grows many new high paying jobs will bring some of these men back into the work place. The five trillion in Covid stimulus has worked its way through the economy and will dampen consumer spending.

One child

In 1979 China instituted a one child policy in order to curb population growth. The law was strictly enforced and resulted in the loss of millions of little girls. Academics often talk about between 30 and 60 million “missing girls” in China, apparently killed in the womb or just after birth, thanks to a combination of preference for sons and the country's decades under a repressive one-child policy. The above statement is generous in its attempt to limit the horror of what happened. In fact most of these children were born to rural families who did not have access to fetal testing and so were killed after they were born. Some babies were put into boxes and left in the woods to die. Other official reports say baby girls were disposed of by drowning, suffocation and poisoning. I suppose it was the fathers job to carry out the deed. Before Americans sit back and dwell on this uncivilized behavior they should be reminded that during this same time period 63 million babies were aborted some for very good reasons but most because of financial restraints. I was born in 1937 in the midst of the Great Depression and my parents could not afford another child but things were different in those days.

Biden

When a sitting president runs for reelection it is customary that he run on his record and the record is usually a mixed bag and in that regard Biden is no exception. On his watch congress passed the long awaited infrastructure bill and the Inflation Reduction Act. Because of inflation wages have not kept up and the average household is spending $800 per month more on basics like food, rent and utilities. The same house purchased today would have twice the monthly mortgage payment. The number of migrants crossing the border is four times higher. There are two wars and the US is bombing Yemen. The presidents approval rating is at 35% and 70% of the people do not want him to run again. This is all factual information but there is also the perception that Biden is in cognitive decline and not able to handle the job.

Liberalism

Most people in this free country believe in classic liberalism and a fundamental part of this liberalism is the belief in individual rights with the understanding that people will not always agree with one another. The solution is that each person has the right to their own way of thinking and doing. If you want to be a catholic or Muslims that is your choice and none of my business. If you believe that socialism is better than capitalism then once again that is your choice and none of my business. This is called tolerance. Individuals have their version of the truth but must recognize that others may have a different version of truth. When beliefs become so strong that one persons individual freedom is in danger then classic liberalism says the state must intervene with the caveat that the power of the state must be limited. If the state is too powerful it will begin to infringe on individual rights. There is no absolute truth but some things like every man is equal comes close to a universal truth. The state may decide that equality is more important than individual rights or even that equity is more important. This is the area where things can eventually be resolved through free open discussion.

Press

The purpose of the free press is to expose government misdeeds and corruption. In the early 1900's journalist known as muckrakers investigated problems in government and in society. Ida Wells wrote about the lynchings in the South. Jacob Riis wrote about the slum conditions in New York City. During my years journalist Jack Anderson made a career out of reporting government fraud. The Washington Post uncovered Watergate and Edward Snowden exposed government spying. As time passed large corporations got control of the national news groups and the freedom of the press lost its sting. Just about that time the Internet came along and once again misdeeds in business and government were uncovered but that didn't last long as quickly the big social media companies got in bed with the government. In today's world the press uses the infighting between individuals based on their politics to cover their view of the news. The press does not reveal information and allow the consumer to determine the meaning but rather tells the consumer what the meaning is. This is not reporting this is propaganda. As long as the people are divided along political lines they will be subjected to news with an agenda instead of facts. Often times news is presented with only part of the facts. It takes a lot of work that most people don't have the time for to investigate a story and the press knows that so they can selectively report facts knowing that most people will not know what they are doing.

Trump

It is looking more and more like a Trump/Biden election and it is time to ask what will Trump do if he wins. The answer is obvious. He will do just what he did the last time he was president. He will increase fossil fuel production, reduce regulations, lower taxes, secure the border, promote local policed departments, let the world know that the US will only pay its proportional share of the cost for all global organizations like the UN, WHO and WTO, continue the Abraham Accords, put sanctions back on Iran, continue his plans to decouple from China and negotiate a peace settlement to the Ukraine War. In addition he will expand NAFTA into Central and South America, cancel mandates on EV's and move toward nuclear power. He will reduce the power of the bureaucrats by challenging the Washington status quo.

Drugs

Drug OD's are on the increase 2016 58,000 2017 70,000 2018 68,000 2019 70,000 2020 92,000 2021 107,000 2022 105,000 2023 107,000 Most of these deaths are caused by fentenyl and most of that comes across the southern border. Fentenyl seized 2020 5,000 pounds 2021 10,000 2022 14,000 2023 22,000

Davos

The world elites are holding their annual meeting in Davos and there are two main ideas on their agenda. The first is they want to make sure that Ukraine gets the money and equipment needed to reach a position of strength so they can negotiate a good deal. Some say this was available the first week of the war but the West turned down the deal. The second is their fear of what happens as deglobalization becomes the new norm. This is why they fear Trump because he not only promotes make America Great but he is not happy with global groups like the UN, WTO and WHO. They know that if the US does not support these groups their influence will wane. They are now talking about a new world order where they can get back control without depending on the US.

Books

People understand that the average school library cannot have all of the books available so someone, often the school librarian selects the books. If this person chooses not to include a particular book it is not book banning but rather selecting from a large number of books when there is only room for a small number. Later books are added to and removed from the library and this too is not book banning.

Batteries

EV drivers were surprised to find their cars did not charge properly in the minus temperatures in Chicago. This was caused by a problem with the chargers but it points out a potential problem. Chemist know that the rate of a chemical reaction doubles for each ten degree centigrade rise in temperature. Normal room temperature is 20 degrees centigrade so if you drop to 10 degrees the rate is cut in half. Drop to zero and the rate is cut in half again and at minus 10 degrees centigrade it is cut in half again. Minus 10 centigrade is plus 14 degrees Fahrenheit. Anyone who lives in a cold temperature area knows how starting is more difficult on cold days.

One party

Each of the two parties in America say that if they had control things would be better. The democratic platform states that affordable housing is a human right. California is a state that has been totally controlled by democrats for decades and the average price of a house is $850,000. This increases the price of renting and California rents are 40% higher than the national average. If you rent you find that your electric bill is 80% higher than the national average. Gas is $4.50 while the national average is $3 These things do not effect the rich in California but fall heavily on the poor and the gap between rich and poor is greatest in California.

Fine

MN has announced that there is a $10,000 fine or five years in jail if convicted of election fraud. That discriminates against poor people. Who in their right mind would chose 5 year in jail over a $10,000 fine except a person who doesn't have $10,000. This is the reason many cities got rid of bail because it adversely affected poor people. Does anyone think of this when they make up these rules.

Nuclear

I sent an email to a man named Kevin Anderson who is listed as an expert on climate change. He is a proponent of wind and solar and I pointed out the reasons why I felt that the answer was small nuclear reactors. In my short paragraph I offered details about nuclear like it being always available, and not needed a lot of newly mined materials. I said in time everyone will come around to small thorium reactors. His response surprised me. Here is what he wrote. “Everyone will come around to small thorium reactors.”  “Each group has committed to a given position and they are unwilling or unable to see beyond their position.”  Self reflection is an important practice in progressing our thinking. It appears you’re not applying your critique of others to yourself. What gives you this amazing authority to see clearly what others are unable to see? It suggests either arrogance or you’re a deity? He chose not to address the points about nuclear that I presented but rather to criticize me even to the point of name calling. It is my contention that he was not able to counter my points on nuclear so he resorted to a different line of attack.

Small reactors

There are currently about a dozen small nuclear reactor projects underway around the world. Most are not interested in building an actual working unit but the engineers just want to keep working on design. The thing that turns them off from construction is the regulators. The rules are so complicated they just don't want to get involved. Because of this the first unit built will not use the best technology. It will use only existing approved technology and equipment. This will allow them to by pass most of the regulation hang ups associated with anything new. The plan is to build small units that can be made on a assembly line and transferred to the use site by truck. The units are erected in a few weeks and ready for online testing in a few months. The units are owned and operated by the manufacturer and the electric power is sold to the customer. The customer could be a city or a business and they would use one or more units depending on their needs. The units will run for 20 years and then returned to the manufacturer and replaced with a new unit. The manufacturer will dissemble the unit and recycle. Besides producing electrical power these units can be used to produce heat needed for production of things like aluminum, steel and concrete. Bret Kugelmass is the founder and CEO of Last Energy a firm that is building these reactors in Texas for sale in Poland and England. The company has a $19 billion dollar contract to build units in an assembly line type factory.

Hamas

As world pressure against Israel builds it won't be long until the Jews announce they have defeated Hamas and begin a pull out. Everything will settle down and the process of what to do about Gaza will come to the forefront. Nothing much will be done and in time most will forget the whole affair and move on toward the next big news story.

War funding

American journalist Even Gershkovich is in a Russian prison and has received a great deal of news coverage here in the United States. Gonzalo Lira, an American journalist was imprisoned in Ukraine after allegedly spreading Russian propaganda which violated his bail conditions has died in jail. Mr. Lira sent out a video which was posted on Twitter saying that the US State Department knows of his situation and predicted that if sent back to jail he would die there but nothing was done to help him. It is difficult to find any news about Mr. Lira. Nothing on the major networks. The war is between a corrupt autocracy and a corrupt democracy. President Biden has been given a way out of this war. The republicans are tying any future money to Ukraine based on closing the southern border but Biden is not interested so Biden can say that the republicans refused to fund the Ukraine war so the US had to pull out support. It couldn't come at a better time since the American people are slowly coming to realize that this war was a mistake from the start. According to a Gallup Poll taken in November of 2023 American views about support for Ukraine have shifted. 41% believe that the US is doing too much while 33% say its about right. 55% of Americans to not think that Congress should authorize more funding for Ukraine. Some feel that there are no winners in this war but some suggest that US defense contractors are winners.

Woke

The idea of Woke centers around the concept of disparate impact which is an unintentional yet adverse effect upon members of a protected class resulting from policies and procedures that appear neutral but are not equally applied to all groups. It generally involves Black vs White or women vs men. Examples are hiring more men than women as construction workers as a result of physical strength. Testing all applicants and using results from test that will unintentionally eliminate certain minority applicants disproportionately. Requiring apartment resident applicants to have full-time employment which discriminates against people with disabilities and veterans. Within anti discrimination law, no theory has attracted more attention or controversy than the disparate impact theory, which allows proof of discrimination without the need to prove an intent to discriminate. There are now proposals to extend disparate impact to cure all manner of social ills. A recent example of how this system works was the use of written test scores as a part of the requirements for a job. The fact that so many Black applicants were denied jobs because of low test scores was considered discrimination and the company was required to hire Blacks who had scored lower than some White applicants. The fact that the company did not intend to discriminate did not matter because the result was discrimination. This is contrary to many laws where intent is important. A prosecutor has to prove both the action and the intent part of any criminal statute if they want to convict you for breaking the law. If they fail to prove intent you must be found not guilty even if they prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that you committed the act.

Keep quiet

I go to Walmart on a regular basis, say three times per week and I sometimes visit with the employees. In talking with the Greeters and those who oversee the individual check out areas, I find that they discriminate when looking for people who might steal. They for example say that when two or three teenage girls or individual teenage boys come in they are watched more closely. Most major retain stores use profiling. For example. A customer wearing oversized clothing or carrying oversized bags, or customers that loiter in certain areas or a wearing winter clothing on warm days. This is different than profiling based on race but that changes over time. If statistics show that Blacks commit a disproportionate number of crimes a person might pay more attention to a Black shopper. If you have worked their a long time and your experience has shown that Blacks are more likely to shoplift then you will begin to use race without realizing you are breaking the law. If asked about this you are likely to deny it and perhaps you don't know you are discriminating based on race. Even if you knew you were using race to profile you would not admit it for fear of losing your job or being shamed by your fellow workers. This fear of being shamed carries over into many aspect of life and thus people just don't say what they are thinking. There are many examples of people calling into radio talk shows and thanking the host for saying the things they were thinking but afraid to say them. Many people are uncomfortable with this but others think it just fine.

Houthis

In March of 2015, Saudi Arabia with US weapons and intelligence support led a coalition of Arab states to intervene in the civil war in Yemen. This was because the Houthis in Yemen were threatening the oil fields in Saudi Arabia. Trump placed the Houthis on the terror watch list but when Biden came into office he removed the Houthis from the list. He did this so humanitarian aid could reach the people fighting the civil war in Yemen. Now the US is bombing the people in Yemen in an attempt to keep the shipping lanes through the Suez Canal open. The canal is the main way in which Europe gets goods from China. The US gets Chinese goods across the Pacific to California and is not adversely effected by closing the Suez Canal. Critics say that once again the US military is called upon to defend Europe.

Economy

In free market economies around the globe the citizens between ages 20 and 50 are the producers and consumers. They are raising families and buy houses, cars, appliances, food and clothes. They work in the factories and farms where real stuff is made. Those between 50 and sixty five are at their peak earnings and they provide the capital with their investments in business and stocks. Those 65 and older withdraw their investments and buy government bonds and thus remove capital. Many countries like China are short on worker bees, those in the 20 to 50 group. The young people moved in droves from the country to the city and city folks have fewer children. Add to that a 35 year one child policy and you find China today in a bad situation. They have too many old people and too few workers to provide the promised old age benefits. Chinese people are mostly Han Chinese and they are not welcoming to foreigners. The same situation happened in Japan about 40 years ago but they took steps to intervene. Realizing they had too many elderly and too few youngsters they set up an economic plan that started manufacturing products outside the country, largely in the USA, and to sell the products in these foreign countries and bring home the profits to care for the old folks. The baby boomers in the US are retiring and creating a shortage of capital but reshoring will stimulate the economy and there are still a goodly number of working age people. This group can be supplemented by young people in Mexico. The industrial base will double in short order raising workers wages and supply chains will be shorted lowing transportation cost and oil and gas will supply the needed inexpensive energy. This will mean rapid growth accompanied by high inflation but in time things will settle down and most will have a comfortable life style.

Plagiarism

As I learn more about ChatGPT I see that in simple terms it is a souped up version of Google. It can access far more material much faster and can use that material to carry out your instructions. One of the results is the ability to catch those who plagiarize. If you repeat anything that was previously published the Chat will find it even if it is only a few words. All the people who have published before this new technology are now in jeopardy if they have copied. There are now people sitting alone in their basements searching for copiers and waiting with baited anticipation their opportunity to expose these cheaters. The highest risk groups are professors who by their job description have to publish and if they got a little lazy along the way and sneaked in a little of of another persons work they will tarred and feathered. But coming to their defense will be the oppressed who will maintain that plagiarism is OK. These will be minorities who feel that the past writings were so filled with White supremacy that the rules were put in place just to make new ideas less palatable. Princeton like all universities has a honor code that the students want to dismantle. Now, however, an op-ed at the Daily Princetonian, the student newspaper, says that code must be “dismantled”, and for two reasons. First, the Honor Code mirrors the procedures of a criminal justice system that, says author Emilly Santos, disproportionately hurts African-Americans and impecunious Americans.  Second, at Princeton the Code disproportionately affects first-generation low-income students (FLI), “students who often also belong to racial minorities.

Virtual

As virtual reality kits become more available people will immerse themselves in home entertainment and rely less on social gatherings. This trend can be seen by the use of smart phones. In time the world of advertising will infiltrate the kits and in short order will determine how people live their lives. It will determine what they buy, what they believe and even who they will vote for. It will make the current style of social media look like child's play.

Engineers

Why is the drop out rate so high in engineering. Most students take 15 semester hours which means 15 hours per week in class but engineering like some science classes have on average another 4 hours a week of lab. The rule of thumb is three hours out of class for every hour in class. This means 19 hours per week in class and 57 hours per week out of class for a total of 76 hours per week of school work. This is a little over 10 hours per day on a 7 day basis but if you want to survive you have to take Sunday off so it means 12 hours per day. Here is a typical day. 9 to 12 in the morning for class and then homework from 1PM until 10 PM. In most class work in college much like high school the information is presented then committed to memory long enough to pass the test. Engineering courses require leaning the material but then using that knowledge to solve problems. It is not just a matter of memorizing but being able to think through situations in a logical manner. Because of this type of leaning many companies higher engineers not so much for what they learn but for the fact that they know how to problem solve. When you see students protesting it is highly unlikely that they are engineering majors. Full time engineering students are not working at part time jobs unless they take off a semester to Co op.

China

In China investment opportunities for most people are limited. The Chinese people are not comfortable with the stock market as it is seen as corrupt so they invest their savings in real estate. To get a home mortgage loan requires 20 to 30 percent down payment and monthly loan payments begin immediately even though the house is not yet completed. Local governments get their money by selling land which was given to them by the national government. The buyers of this land were primarily real estate developing firms. The whole economy revolved around the real estate business and the building got out of control. The local government sold the land to get operating capital, the real estate developers continued to build homes to get operating income and in time they ran out of land but not before they had built a billion more homes than were needed. Now homes and condos sit empty and the big real estate companies are going broke and cannot finish existing projects. This means that millions of ordinary citizens have lost their saving and the cannot afford to default because in China the government knows everyone's credit rating and if your credit is bad you cannot buy anything including basics like food. The government is now concerned that if millions of people lose their life savings and have no where to live they will revolt. In a communist society it is difficult to make small changes without opening the door to large changes much like happened in Russia when Gorbachev tried Perestroika. Within six years the Soviet Union collapsed. Since Xi Jinping is a total dictator he maintains control of the military so he can slap down any revolt by killing how ever many are needed to keep his power.

Income gap

Many people understand that the wealth gap is increasing and feel that something should be done about it. This means to either lower the top or raise the bottom and the latter is easy to do with existing tax laws. It means raising the child tax credit which is currently at $2,000 per child and congress is currently considering an increase. The standard deduction for 2024 is $29,200 for filing joint. A family of four earning $62,000 will pay no federal income tax. Increase the tax credit to $4,000 per child and the family income can rise to $85,000 without paying any federal income tax. Another easy way to close the gap using existing tax law is to increase the earned income tax credit (EITC). Currently a married couple with a family income of $25,000 would get $6,600 EITC and a family earning $50,000 would get $2,000. These could be changed to any amount at any level. The easiest way to lower the top is to increase the top tax rate above the current 37% or add a surtax above a certain level. It would also be simple to remove the current limit on the amount of social security withholding that is taxed above the current $168,000.

Socialism

Most people are unaware that of one of the most common solutions to the problem of climate change is to dismantle capitalism. The claim is that capitalism caused the climate problems now facing the world and so it must be eliminated. If you google capitalism/climate you will find many articles demanding that capitalism be replaced with something more akin to socialism. While many are aware that the new green deal is a local version of this desire for socialism most are not aware of the international desire for same. Most major projects in the modern world require a partnership between private and government entities and the answer to the climate problem is one of those. If the desire to piggy back social change on top of climate change were to be recognized as interference then the door would open to nuclear power. This of course is happening in spite of the socialism push as reality sets in and it becomes obvious that wind and solar cannot solve the problem without creating new and bigger problems. As more articles are published outlining the hazards of mining, processing and disposing of materials needed for wind and solar this solution will be phased out and nuclear will become the dominant solution.

No covid

The time has come for a little, "what if" game. What if the careless scientist in Wuhan had not released the Covid virus. There is no pandemic and millions do not die, children are not set back two years in learning and Trump is reelected. George Floyd is killed but protest are limited to Minneapolis and there is no BLM and no defund the police. Crime has not increased since law and order prevailed. Trump negotiates with Putin by offering a guarantee that Ukraine will not be invited into NATO and there is no war in Ukraine. Europe is not dumped into recession since their gas supply from Russia is not cut off. Trump expands oil and gas production and inflation is held in check. The border remains secure and 4 million illegals have not crossed the border. 300,000 have not died from fentanyl and northern cities are not being overrun with migrants. A million unaccompanied children are not lost. Trump continued the Abraham Accords getting Saudi Arabia to sign on, using the guarantee that the US will protect the Saudis from Iran and the reason Hamas invaded Israel is removed so there is no war in the Middle East. There are no Palestinians protesting around the world. The Houthis in Yemen are not shooting at ships and the Suez Canal remains open. Americans are gearing up for the 2024 elections with Pence running against the new upcoming shinning star on the democratic side. The main issue is climate change and the liberals are heaving a large sigh of relief as Trump is now only a few months from being gone. Happy days are here again.

Trump

The Trump real estate case reminded me of a personal situation. At one time I owned a business and when I wanted to depreciate the business I had to separate the value of the land from the building. I asked the IRS how to do this and was told that I should place a value on the business and if they disagreed they would let me know. Fortunately the business was on one lot and there was another empty lot attached so I just used the value of the empty lot for tax purposes. The point is that since the land cannot be depreciated it was to my advantage to place most of the value on the building which is what most people do. If they go overboard then the IRS challenges the value. Trumps case in New York is about placing the value on real estate. The only way the true value can be determined is by the rule, the value is what a willing buyer will pay a willing seller but if there is no sale then it is up to the two parties to agree on a value. This is what happened between Trump and the bank. When the time period was over the bank made money and Trump got his loan. Then the government steps in and says the property was overvalued by Trump. New York Attorney General Letitia James campaign pledge to probe former President Trump's business dealings, a promise she made before she even set foot in office, could make her vulnerable to an upset in her bid for reelection. The judge in the case is Arthur Engoron. Last week, Engoron ruled that Trump committed years of fraud by exaggerating his wealth and the value of assets on financial statements he used to get loans and make deals. As punishment, the judge said he would dissolve some of Trump’s companies — a decision that could cause him to lose control of marquee New York properties, like Trump Tower. Trump's defense is that it is standard practice in the real estate business to estimate the value of property and when applying for a lone to estimate on the high side. The bank on the other hand must secure its loan by estimating on the low side. Where the two meet is as close as you can get to the willing seller, willing buyer scenario without having a sale. Both James and Engoron have shown open disdain for Trump so he will likely be found guilty and then will appeal.

EV's

Federal incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act are encouraging the building of EV and battery plants. Federal incentives help drive $52 billion of investments in 17 battery production facilities. A year has passed since Hyundai Motor Group broke ground on the $7.6 billion vehicle and battery plant, the South Korean automaker’s first U.S. factory dedicated to producing EVs. Munoz, Hyundai’s president and global chief operating officer, said last month that the company has accelerated construction to take advantage of federal incentives that reward domestic production of EVs. He said it’s possible the plant could open before the end of next year. Contrast that with news from the auto industry. Toyota cut its local EV sales forecast by 40% for 2024. Volkswagen cut its EV production levels and canceled plans for new $2 billion factory. GM is abandoning its goal of building 400,000 EV's from 2022 to mid 2024 Ford is cutting production of its F-150 EV pickup in half next year. Honda says, after extensive studies and analysis, we have come to a mutual decision to discontinue the EV program Add to that the fact than 4,000 auto dealers sent a message to Biden saying they cannot sell the EV's they have on the lot. You have to wonder what is going on.

DEI

In universities starting about 30 years ago the number of liberals began to increase so by 2000 they were a super majority in all areas except business and science but by 2015 they were a majority across the board. This led to group think and anyone who challenged that risked losing their job and there are many examples of that in the news. The new paradigm is called diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) and like many ideas it started out with good intentions but since everyone thought the same way it was not fully vetted and it went awry. Instead of being a set of guidelines to help open the university to a new way of looking at procedures like hiring, promoting and excepting people on their merits it became a hammer to pound the new way into the heads of people. In short order DEI found its way into business and it soon gained too much power and started to dictate company policy. Decisions were made not based on business needs but on the need to diversify and these fell into conflict. In only a few years the whole idea came under scrutiny and it was exposed as a mistake. DEI is now being discarded in business and questioned in universities. It is easy to determine which side is right in these types of conflicts. The side that wants to shut down the opposition is the wrong side. They won't argue their point, they will just call you a name and the discussion is over.

Laptop

In April of 2019 Hunter Biden dropped off his laptop for repair. The repairman was a Trump supporter and thought the information on the laptop should be reported to the FBI. He made a copy of the hard drive and turned the laptop over to the FBI in December of 2019. Nothing happened so in August of 2020 the copy was given to Rudy Giuliani who then gave it to the New York Post. On October 14, 2020 the Post printed the story. On October 19, 2020 more than 50 former intelligence officials signed a letter saying the Post story looks like Russian disinformation. Twitter and Facebook declined to print the Post story saying the information was unverified. Two questions. First why did the FBI not confirm the legitimacy of the laptop during the early part of 2020 and second how did they get more than 50 former intelligence officers to sign that letter in only five days. Did those signers have time to evaluate the laptop or were they even given access to the laptop. This letter became more significant when during the presidential debate the subject came up and Biden said 51 former intelligence officers said it was Russian disinformation and that ended the discussion.

PhD

The educational system in the United States is plagued with problems like class size, student discipline, grade inflation and race gaps in test scores. Even though the US spends more on education than other developed countries the US falls further behind each year. The bright spot is in the area of post graduate work where the US excels. Scholars from around the world come to the US for advanced work. In the coming years this will serve the country well especially in the areas of science and technology. While the country has always been blessed with creative innovators, who did not rely on advanced education, the future will require those with PhD degrees. It is not easy to get such a degree and students are often times filtered out along the way and for those who make the grade the country will need their expertise. Undergrads in today's university are distracted with all sorts of non academic obstacles but the serious students will find their way through this mine field and develop the new ideas to build the future upon.

Twitter

As the secrets of Twitter unfold the threat to free speech is exposed. Government agencies like the FBI, CIA and Homeland Security sent request to Twitter and other social media sites to censor certain information deemed to be dangerous to national security. It was never referred to as censorship but by the euphemistic phrase, content moderation request. No one is sure how long this had been going on and if it were not for the fact that Musk bought Twitter no one would still be aware. The press has already taken political sides and this would have been one more step to controlling the news. Social media companies had become echo chambers of left wing ideology much like universities. When you only hear one side of an issue you slowly drift away from the truth. It is important for citizens to hear all sides of an issue.

Ukraine

President Biden is getting squeezed into a no win situation in Ukraine. The possibility that Trump could win the election has opened the door to a Trump/Putin peaceful settlement in the war. This puts pressure on Biden to reach a settlement. At this point Putin would ask for the Dombas region along with Crimean in territory but also a say in the Ukrainian government. He would want a Russian representative in Kiev to oversee any military build up along with a written agreement Ukraine would not be allowed into NATO. If Biden goes along with this it will appear that he should have negotiated earlier for a better deal. Once again the US will walk away looking like a failure.

Workers

From the end of WW 2 until the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 the democrats controlled the congress and were considered the working mans party. During the 50's and early 60's the blue collar worker had an increase in the standard of living but that all changed when globalization came along. This led to the transfer of manufacturing jobs to foreign countries and the working man paid the penalty. While the blue collar workers saw their standard of living decline the wealth gap widened. Free world trade made the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. The democrats claimed to be the party of the working man while they promoted free trade. Real wages for working families declined for 40 years. In the Reagan years the workers woke up and realized they had been promised year after year that things would improve but it never happened. In 2016 they rebelled and voted for Trump out of desperation and they were rewarded with the first real increase in wages since the 1960's. This turned politics up side down and today the republicans are the party of the working man.

Blacks

The democrats are seen as the party of the Black community but that has come under scrutiny of late. While the problems of racial discrimination towards Blacks have lessened other problems remain. The achievement gap in education has made little progress since the 1960's. The disparities in medium household income showing Blacks earning only 60% of what Whites earn has remained constant over this same time period. The wealth gap between Black and White Americans is as large today as it was in the 1950's. During these years the Black voters maintained their loyalty to the democratic party but that is now being challenged. The idea that if you don't vote democratic you are not Black may no longer be the case.

Migrants

Time for a little irony to illustrate a point and the absurdity associated with the point. The Governor of Illinois says he needs money from Washington to house the migrants in Chicago. When those are housed more will come and he will need more money and so on. There is poison gas leaking into my home so I purchased an air filter that neutralizes the gas. The amount of gas kept increasing so I purchased additional filters. My house is now filled with two hundred filters and I have no more room. What can I do.

Protect

Susan Powers developed a philosophy called, "responsibility to protect". It states that when a people are being mistreated by their government it is the responsibility of the United States to intervene. She convinced Hillary Clinton and Samantha Powers to join with her to use military force to oust Gaddafi from Libya which later Obama called a grave mistake. Later when Assad in Syria used chemical weapons against his people the responsibility to protect idea came in to play and Rice laid out the case for the damage that would be done to our national security and that of our partners and allies should we fail to respond to enforce the longstanding international norm against the use of chemical weapons. This time Obama didn't take the bait. Before Obama left office he once again fell under the spell of Powers and sent arms to Saudi Arabia to fight against the Houthi insurgents in Yemen and that has now escalated into the troubles in the Red Sea which may lead the US into another war. The responsibility to protect is the ultimate liberal idea of protecting the oppressed from the oppressors. It looks good (virtue signaling) but in practice ends up causing more harm than good. The three countries involved, Libya, Syria and Yemen are still in civil war.

Virus

I was working as a sub during Covid and on each room door was a sign saying no more than 13 students in the room at one time. This meant the half the students had to have distance learning at home. This was the result of the 6 foot rule that dictated that all students must remain six feet apart. All the hallways had arrows on the floor to direct foot traffic and stairs were one way to avoid close contact. Former Food and Drug Administration (FDA) commissioner Scott Gottlieb said on Sunday that “nobody knows” the origins of the six-foot social-distancing recommendation. In between classes the teachers would hold the students in the hall while they sprayed each desk with a quaternary ammonia compound and these require a five minute contact time to be effective. The teacher would spray each desk and immediately wipe down and this took less than five minutes. All the rooms were equipped with newly purchased air filtering units where the air was circulated to remove harmful virus. While the filter can remove moisture droplet with virus attached they do not remove virus alone. The same is true for masks. All of this information will be known the next time a pandemic happens and more effective measures can be implemented.

Reshoring

Nancy Pelosi was on Morning Joe today and she said the big issues for the 2024 election will be climate change, abortion and the threat to democracy while republicans are most concerned about inflation, the border and crime. Left out of polls but gaining attention is Ukraine. Regardless of who is elected the economy will boom as reshoring will lead to a doubling of the industrial base over the next few years. Those predicting the end of the country if either of the front runners are elected seem unaware of the changes that the end of globalization will bring. These changes will demand that fossil fuels increase to meet the demands of industry. This will help to offset the effect of inflation that will accompany the rapid growth in the economy. As the number of good high paying jobs increase and in time the inflation tends downward people will forget all about the election.

Shadow

One of the many government programs that came out of the Great Depression was the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). It started in 1934 with a coverage of $2,500 per account and today it is $250,000 per account. Over the past 20 years some new banks have started without the protection afforded by the |FDIC and they are called shadow banks. They offer the same services as FDIC banks but without the government protection. Shadow banks get their money from private investors not from individual depositors. If they are short in cash they cannot get funds from the federal reserve. The advantage is that shadow banks are not under federal regulations. Since shadow banks don't take on individual deposits they are not subject to bank runs. It basically amounts to a return to banking before FDIC but using private equity from large investors instead of getting funds from small individual depositors. In the past ten years shadow banks have grown 6 fold to $850 billion in deposits.

Energy

Most people are familiar with the industrial revolution that began in the 1800's with the development of the steam engine. It was all about replacing manual labor with machines. The energy source started with wood then changed to coal and finally ended up with oil. It was oil that raised the people out of poverty and into the life we have today. How much this oil elevated mankind from physical work is not often appreciated. One barrel of oil has the same amount of energy of up to 25,000 hours of hard human labor, which is 12.5 years of work. At $20 per hour, this is $500,000 of labor per barrel. The average person in the US today lives better than the royal families of the pre industrial days. As the world moves inexorably toward nuclear power the benefits to human kind will improve by that amount once again. This time the West should plan to help raise the standard of living for all the people.

Nukes

The reason that all out nuclear war is unlikely are many but the biggest deterrent are the Ohio class submarines called boomers. The entire fleet of 18 subs could carry as many as 24 missiles on each sub and each missile has12 warheads. That means 5,184 nuclear bombs and each bomb contains 200 kilotons of TNT which is 30 times larger than the bombs used against Japan in WW 2. Combine this with the accuracy with which these missiles have and every city in the US with a population of over 50,000 could be totally destroyed. At any given time the location of these subs is secret and they stay at sea mostly under water for 77 days at a time and then come in for 35 days and back out again. If the United States were completely wiped out in a surprise attack the subs would counter attack. The only way this whole scenario would happen is if someone wanted to destroy their own whole country. It is not likely that there could be a little nuclear war using tactical weapons without escalating into a full out war as this would remove the advantage of a surprise attack. There always remains the very small possibility that some insane person could gain control of the box but that is highly unlikely but not impossible. This does not take into account the 400 Minute Man land based missiles and each contains three 200 kiloton warheads.

Spying

FBI whistle blowers have now revealed how the FBI uses FISA to spy on individuals. This is how Hoover used to gather compromising information on the rich and powerful over many years and it is still going on. The way this information can be used was recently demonstrated in the Jeffrey Epstein case. He as a private citizen used secret information to blackmail individuals. It is possible that the FBI could be doing the same thing. Is this where the so called deep state gets its power. Is it time to overhaul the bureaucracy. Are non elected officials running the country behind the scenes. Even to suggest such a thing opens the door to being accused of being a conspiracy theorist. Does the FBI control the press along with the politicians. Information like this should be of grave concern but if the people are divided nothing can be done because the claim of politics can cover up.

Ukraine

As the Ukraine war drags on more questions keep coming up. The distance from Kiev to Moscow is 450 miles and that is the same as the distance from Ottawa to Washington DC. The United States would not allow Russian nuclear weapons in Ottawa and should not expect Russia to allow such weapons in Ukraine. Recall how upset the people were when the Soviets tried to put missiles in Cuba. Why did the US keep pushing NATO closer to Russia knowing full well at some point Russia would have to take a stand. Declassified documents show security assurances against NATO expansion to Soviet leaders from Baker, Bush, Genscher, Kohl, Gates, Mitterrand, Thatcher, Hurd, Major and Woener at the December 12, 2017 meeting at the National Security Archive at GW University. Other documents revealing the same assurances in 1990 and 1991. One of the more famous was Jim Baker meeting with Gorbachev on February 9, 1990 where he said, not one inch eastward. The world reports that Russia invaded Ukraine without reporting what led up to that. This is another example of the news giving only part of the story.